Baltic
Dry Index. 1400 +114 Brent Crude 70.38
Spot
Gold 2909 U S 2 Year Yield 3.99 +0.03
US
Federal Debt. 36.568 trillion.
Some
ideas are so stupid that only intellectuals believe them.
George Orwell.
In the stock casinos,
a bad week as Trump policy uncertainty grew. The tariff wars grew too, albeit
with a one month delay to goods covered by the Trump negotiated USMCA trade
pact.
Uncertainty, is a
killer of corporate and consumer planning and with it, stock casino optimism
and the global economy, albeit renewed global warfare spending will eventually
kick in later in 2025.
WW3 anyone?
S&P
500 closes higher in volatile trading Friday, but index posts worst week since
September: Live updates
Updated
Fri, Mar 7 2025 4:58 PM EST
The S&P
500 regained some ground on Friday, but the index still posted its
worst week in several months as the salvo of trade policy actions unnerved
investors.
The broad index rose 0.55% to 5,770.20, while
the Nasdaq Composite gained
0.7% to 18,196.22. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average added 222.64 points, or 0.52%, to end at
42,801.72.
Friday saw volatile trading, with the Dow falling
more than 400 points at session lows before an afternoon rally. The S&P 500
and Nasdaq both fell more than 1% at their worst points in the trading day.
Despite Friday’s recovery, the S&P 500 notched
its worst week since September with a loss of 3.1%. The Dow, meanwhile, fell
2.4% this week. The Nasdaq Composite slid 3.5% on the week, during which it had
entered correction
territory, which means the tech-heavy index finished a session 10% off its
recent high.
Investors shook off a weaker-than-expected jobs
report released Friday, which raised further concerns about an economic
softening and briefly sent Treasury yields lower. Nonfarm payrolls increased
by 151,000 jobs in February, less than the consensus forecast for
170,000 from economists polled by Dow Jones. The unemployment rate ticked
higher to 4.1%.
That came as stocks have been on a roller-coaster
ride this week with President Donald Trump’s tariff policies worrying investors
about future U.S. growth and inflation. Trump said on
Thursday that a swath of goods from Canada and Mexico that are covered
by the North American trade agreement known as the USMCA would be exempt from
the announced duties until April 2.
This move effectively walked back much of the
original plan for levies on the two countries, along with China. But the market
still sold off this week, with uncertainty mounting amid constant updates and a
lack of clarity on what to expect longer term.
“The market does not like uncertainty,” said Glen
Smith, chief investment officer at GDS Wealth Management. “While we expect the
market to find its footing and recover from the tariff-driven selloff,
investors should brace for continued choppiness until these uncertainties
clear.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged to
CNBC on Friday that the economy could be starting to “roll a bit.” However, he
said that was due to a transition from the policies of the previous
administration. Bessent said any tariffs implemented would be a “one-time price
adjustment” and not spark lasting inflation.
Stock
market news for March 7, 2025
European
markets end lower with tariffs, U.S. economy in focus; Luxury stocks sell off
Updated
Fri, Mar 7 2025 12:02 PM EST
European
markets closed lower Friday, rounding off a volatile week marked by whipsawing
policy on U.S. tariffs, the latest rate cut from the European Central Bank,
German fiscal reforms and a regional defense spending boost.
Investors
were also reacting to key jobs data out of the U.S., which showed nonfarm
payrolls rose by a less-than-expected
151,000 in February.
The
regional Stoxx 600 index
closed 0.46% lower in London, marking its first losing week this year.
The
Stoxx 600 has jumped between losses and gains this week amid unfolding
geopolitical developments and corporate
earnings.
Luxury
stocks were among the worst performers, with Richemont and Burberry down over 5% and almost
7%, respectively, as the Stoxx Europe Luxury 10 index dropped 2.7%. The sector
is expected
to face challenges from U.S. import tariffs which could hit U.S.
consumer demand and lead to a rise in prices.
U.S.
President Donald Trump on Thursday granted
temporary tariff exemptions for around 50% of Mexican imports and 38%
of Canadian imports until April 2. The move came a day after Trump granted
a one-month
tariff exemption for automakers, expected to be one of the most
affected sectors; and just two days after sweeping new duties came into effect.
In
Europe, market watchers on Friday were also unpacking the ECB’s
latest quarter-point rate cut, inflation and growth projections, and
messaging.
The
euro area’s central bank said monetary policy was becoming “meaningfully less
restrictive,” suggesting it may exercise more caution across its next meetings.
“While
forecasts still show clear direction, [ECB] communication doesn’t,” analysts at
Bank of America Global Research said Thursday.
Also
affecting markets this week were promises of higher defense spending across
Europe, with the Stoxx Aerospace and Defence Index up almost 6% this week. The
European Union agreed to higher defense spending across the bloc.
German
stocks, meanwhile, rallied on hopes of stronger economic growth and more
spending on both defense and infrastructure after leading politicians stuck
a “historic” deal on fiscal reform.
European
stocks open to close: Trump tariffs, UK house prices
In other news.
US
economic worries mount as Trump implements tariffs, cuts workforce and freezes
spending
8 March 2025
With his flurry of tariffs, government layoffs and
spending freezes, there are growing worries President Donald
Trump may be doing more to harm the U.S. economy than to fix it.
The labor market remains healthy with a 4.1%
unemployment rate and 151,000 jobs added in February, and Trump likes to point
to investment commitments by Apple and
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company to show that he's delivering
results.
But Friday's employment report also found that the
number of people stuck working part-time because of economic circumstances
jumped by 460,000 last month. In the leisure and hospitality sectors that
reflect consumers having extra money to spend, 16,000 jobs were lost. And the
federal government reduced its payrolls by 10,000 in a potential harbinger of
the alarm being sounded by the stock market, consumer confidence and other
measures of where the economy is headed.
Since January, the economic policy uncertainty index
has spiked 41% to a level, 334.5, that in the past signaled a recession.
Nicholas Bloom, a Stanford University economist and co-developer of the
uncertainty index, said it's unclear how this will play out, but he's worried.
“I have an increasing fear we will enter into what
may become known as the ‘Trump recession,'" he said. "Ongoing policy
turbulence and a tariff war could tip the U.S. economy into its first recession
in five years.” That last recession occurred under Trump because of the
coronavirus pandemic.
For his part, Trump seems comfortable with the
uncertainty that he's generating, saying that any financial pain from import
taxes is a mere “disruption” that will eventually lead to more factories
relocating to the United States and stronger growth.
If Trump's gambit succeeds, the Republican would
cement his reputation as an unconventional leader who proved doubters wrong.
But if Trump's tariffs backfire, much of the price would be paid by everyday
Americans who could suffer from job losses, lower wages, higher inflation and,
possibly, an injured sense of national pride.
In an interview to air Sunday on Fox News' “Sunday
Morning Futures,” Trump was pressed to provide some clarity on his tariffs
agenda that has caused uncertainty to fester. The president largely hedged his
answer and blamed the 6% drop in the stock market over the past two weeks on
“big globalists.”
“You know, the tariffs could go up as time goes by,
and they may go up and, you know, I don’t know if it’s predictability,” the
president said.
The White House maintains that Friday's jobs report
showed the administration's strategy is working because manufacturers added
10,000 jobs. Of the manufacturing gains, 8,900 jobs came from the auto sector,
recovering some of the industry's job losses in January. The White House also
suggested that the loss of leisure and hospitality jobs was the result of flu
season and people having depleted savings and credit card debt because of
President Joe Biden's term.
“I thought it was a really, really impressive jobs
report,” Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National
Economic Council, said of Friday's numbers.
Hassett said the additional factory jobs were the
result of companies “on-shoring” work because of the coming tariffs.
“This is the first of many reports that are going to
look like this,” Hassett said with regard to the hiring in the industrial
sector.
The stock market selloff raises doubts about whether
tariffs will create the promised jobs.
“Markets anticipate,” said John Silvia, CEO of
Dynamic Economic Strategy. “The turn down the dark alley of tariffs signals
higher inflation, slower economic growth and a weaker U.S. dollar. It is an
economic horror movie in slow motion.”
----There were multiple signs of uncertainty and
concerns about the tariffs in the Federal Reserve’s beige book, a collection of
anecdotes from hundreds of businesses that the Fed releases eight times a year.
Published Wednesday, the beige book included 47
references to uncertainty, up from just 17 in the previous edition in January.
“Many businesses noted heightened economic
uncertainty and expressed concern about tariffs,” the Fed’s New York branch
reported. “Looking ahead, businesses were notably less optimistic.”
“This is the perfect storm for businesses,” said
Brian Bethune, an economist at Boston College. “How can you possibly plan
anything in this environment?”
More
US
economic worries mount as Trump implements tariffs, cuts workforce and freezes
spending
Powell
says Fed is awaiting ‘greater clarity’ on Trump policies before making next
move on rates
Published
Fri, Mar 7 2025 12:30 PM EST Updated Fri, Mar 7 2025 2:48 PM EST
NEW YORK — Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday that
the central bank can wait to see how President Donald Trump’s aggressive policy
actions play out before it moves again on interest rates.
With markets
nervous over Trump’s proposals for tariffs and other issues, Powell
reiterated statements he and his colleagues have made recently counseling
patience on monetary policy amid the high level of uncertainty.
The White House “is in the process of implementing
significant policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal
policy, and regulation,” he said in a speech for the U.S. Monetary Policy
Forum. “It is the net effect of these policy changes that will matter for the
economy and for the path of monetary policy.”
Noting that “uncertainty around the changes and
their likely effects remains high” Powell said the Fed is “focused on
separating the signal from the noise as the outlook evolves. We do not need to
be in a hurry, and are well positioned to wait for greater clarity.”
The comments seem at least somewhat at odds with
growing market expectations for interest rate cuts this year.
As markets have been roiled by Trump’s shifting
positions on his agenda — specifically his tariff plans — traders have priced
in the equivalent of three quarter percentage point reductions by the end of
the year, starting in June, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.
However, Powell’s comments indicate that the Fed
will be in a wait-and-see mode before mapping out further policy easing.
More
Powell
says Fed is awaiting 'greater clarity' on Trump policies before making next
move on rates
Finally, who really
started the Ukraine war? A surprising video answer from the Cato Institute, but
we’re not allowed to know this. Approx. 17 minutes.
Coup: "The Extent of
the Obama Administration’s Meddling in Ukraine’s Politics Was
BREATHTAKING"
The
past was erased, the erasure was forgotten, the lie became the truth.
George
Orwell.
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given our Magic Money
Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
‘Very
concerned’ about Europe’s struggling economy, European Central Bank policymaker
Centeno says
Published
Fri, Mar 7 2025 6:54 AM EST
Europe’s
struggling economy has economists worried — and senior European Central Bank
policymaker Mário Centeno, echoes that view.
“I
am very concerned about the European economy,” Centeno, who is also governor of
the Bank of Portugal, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday.
On
Thursday, the ECB revised its gross domestic product expectations for the euro
area to 0.9% growth in 2025, down from a previously projected 1.1% expansion.
The euro area’s seasonally adjusted GDP most recently eked out a 0.1% increase
in the fourth quarter.
Centeno
linked the downward growth outlook revision to reduced exports and investments,
echoing the ECB statement.
“Special
investment is, I think, quite subdued in Europe. It will take four years for us
to go back to the 2023 level of investment in the private sector, six years in
terms of housing investment [and we will be] going back to 2022 levels only in
2028,” he explained.
“These
are numbers that raise some questions about the recovery in Europe,” Centeno
added.
Concerns
about Europe’s sluggish economy have accelerated in recent months, following
repeated threats of tariffs from the U.S. administration. U.S. President Donald
Trump has already introduced duties on imports from several key U.S. trading
partners and has indicated that Europe could be the next target.
But
there is frequent policy
movement in
the U.S.′ position, with pauses, delays and exemptions aplenty as negotiations
and pledges of reciprocal measures from the targeted countries continue.
“Tariffs
are a tax. They are a tax on both consumption and production, and we do know
that taxes have a very clear impact on the economy,” Centeno said Friday,
warning that ultimately no one would gain from a tariff war.
More
ECB's Centeno
'very concerned' about Europe's struggling economy
2025
Recession Risk Is Increasing According To Multiple Indicators
Mar 05, 2025,
02:59pm EST
Several
indicators are hinting that recession risk for the U.S. economy might be greater than previously feared. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s model recently suggested that economic
growth might be negative in Q1 2025. In addition, parts of the yield curve have
re-inverted and consumer confidence declined in February. Prediction
market Kalshi is currently estimating a 40% chance of
recession in 2025; that’s up sharply in recent weeks. Still, a 40%
chance still implies that a recession is most likely avoided. This combination
of signals is unlikely to be sufficient to predict that a recession is coming
in 2025, but the risks are currently rising.
A
Nowcast For Declining GDP Growth
Recent nowcasts
for Q1 2025 gross domestic product growth dipped into negative territory in
late February. That’s according to the latest estimates of the Atlanta Fed’s
model that weights incoming economic data to forecast growth. Of course, the
model is volatile and may change again as more data comes in, but it
currently suggests declining growth in Q1.
The model
examines a host of data, but the shift may, in part, be due to increasing imports of industrial supplies for January as reported by the United States Census Bureau. That
could be as firms bring in extra inventories in advance to pre-empt rising
import costs from tariffs. Should that proves to be a one-off move in trade
patterns, it is perhaps less of a concern. Trade patterns are sometimes noisy
and less meaningful for economic analysis. For example, alternate model from
the New York Federal Reserve continues to point to healthy growth in Q1.
More
2025 Recession Risk Is Increasing According To Multiple Indicators
China to impose retaliatory tariffs on some
Canadian products as trade war heats up
Published Sat, Mar 8 2025 12:09 AM EST
China on Saturday announced retaliatory tariffs on some Canadian
agricultural goods, hitting back after Ottawa slapped import duties on
Chinese-made electric vehicles and steel and aluminum products.
Beijing said a 100% tariff would be
imposed on Canadian rapeseed oil, oil cakes and peas, while a 25% levy would be
placed on aquatic products and pork originating in Canada.
The tariffs are scheduled to come into
force from March 20, according to a statement from China’s Customs Tariff
Commission of the State Council.
The measures come amid a brewing
global trade war, following several tariff announcements by the U.S.,
China, Canada and Mexico in recent months.
Canada imposed 100% import tariffs on Chinese-made EVs from
Oct. 1 last year, following in the footsteps of the U.S. and the European Union
over concerns related to unfair competition.
Ottawa also applied a
25% tariff on imports of steel and aluminum products from China, which came
into effect from Oct. 15.
“Canada’s unilateral imposition of tariffs
disregards objective facts and World Trade Organization rules, is a typical
trade protectionist practice, constitutes a discriminatory measure against
China, seriously infringes on China’s legitimate rights and interests, and
undermines China-Canada economic and trade relations,” China’s customs
authorities said in a statement on a Saturday, according to a
Google translation.
Trade
war: China to slap retaliatory tariffs on some Canadian products
Covid-19
Corner
This section will
continue until it becomes unneeded.
Today, an aspirin a
day keeps cancer away?
‘Eureka’ moment as scientists discover common drug
stops some cancers spreading
5 March 025
Scientists have described the “Eureka moment” when
they discovered how aspirin may prevent some cancers from spreading.
Building on previous
studies, their findings suggest
that aspirin bolsters the immune system, enabling it to identify and eliminate
dangerous cancer cells more effectively.
Ongoing clinical trials
are investigating aspirin's potential to prevent cancer recurrence in patients.
However, experts caution
against self-medicating with aspirin, emphasising the importance of consulting
a doctor due to potential side effects like stomach bleeding.
The new work was
published in the journal Nature and funded by the Medical Research Council and
Wellcome Trust.
Led by the University of
Cambridge, it suggests a path for aspirin to become a cancer treatment,
alongside the development of more effective drugs to prevent cancer spreading.
Researchers screened 810
genes in mice and found 15 that had an effect on cancer spread.
In particular, they found
that mice lacking a gene which produces a protein called ARHGEF1 were less
likely to have cancer spread to the lungs and liver.
The experts discovered
that ARHGEF1 suppresses a type of immune cell called a T cell, which is
important for recognising and killing metastatic (spreading to other parts of
the body) cancer cells.
They found that ARHGEF1
is switched on when T cells are exposed to a clotting factor called thromboxane
A2 (TXA2) – this was an unexpected finding for the scientists.
TXA2 is produced by
platelets in the blood and aspirin is already known to cut the production of
TXA2.
The research found that
aspirin can prevent cancers from spreading by decreasing TXA2 – releasing T
cells from being suppressed so they can kill cancer cells.
In mice given aspirin,
the frequency of metastases was reduced compared with mice not on the drug, and
this was dependent on releasing T cells from suppression by TXA2.
Professor Rahul
Roychoudhuri, from the University of Cambridge, who led the study, said:
“Despite advances in cancer treatment, many patients with early stage cancers
receive treatments, such as surgical removal of the tumour, which have the
potential to be curative, but later relapse due to the eventual growth of
micrometastases – cancer cells that have seeded other parts of the body but
remain in a latent state.
----Dr Jie Yang, also from the University of Cambridge, said: “It was a
Eureka moment when we found TXA2 was the molecular signal that activates this
suppressive effect on T cells.
“Before this, we had not
been aware of the implication of our findings in understanding the
anti-metastatic activity of aspirin.
“It was an entirely
unexpected finding which sent us down quite a different path of inquiry than we
had anticipated.
“Aspirin, or other drugs
that could target this pathway, have the potential to be less expensive than
antibody-based therapies, and therefore more accessible globally.”
Researchers are now
working with Professor Ruth Langley at University College London, who is
leading the Add-Aspirin clinical trial, to find out if aspirin can stop or
delay early stage cancers from coming back.
This trial, supported by
Cancer Research UK, includes patients with breast, oesophageal, stomach,
prostate and bowel cancer.
Professor Langley said of
the new work: “This is an important discovery. It will enable us to interpret
the results of ongoing clinical trials and work out who is most likely to
benefit from aspirin after a cancer diagnosis.
More
‘Eureka’ moment as scientists discover common
drug stops some cancers spreading
Technology
Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Is DeepSeek's AI a brand-new secondhand ChatGPT? A "unanimous
jury" rules its AI-generated text matches OpenAI models by 74%
March 5, 2025
Chinese AI startup DeepSeek burst into the AI scene earlier
this year with its ultra-cost-effective, R1 V3-powered AI model. Consequently, it raised concerns among investors,
especially after it surpassed OpenAI's o1 reasoning model across a
wide range of benchmarks, including
math, science, and coding at a fraction of the cost.
While DeepSeek researchers claimed the
company spent approximately $6 million to train its cost-effective model,
multiple reports suggest that it cut corners by using Microsoft and OpenAI's copyrighted content to
train its model.
Another report claimed that the Chinese AI startup spent up to $1.6 billion on
hardware, including 50,000 NVIDIA Hopper GPUs.
OpenAI lodged a complaint, indicating the company used to train its models to
train its cost-effective AI model.
The ChatGPT maker claimed DeepSeek used
"distillation" to train its R1 model. For context, distillation is
the process whereby a company, in this case, DeepSeek leverages preexisting
model's output (OpenAI) to train a new model.
As such, the company reduces the
exorbitant amount of money required to develop and train an AI model. And as it
now seems, OpenAI's accusations seemingly hold some water.
A new study by AI detection firm Copyleaks reveals that DeepSeek's AI-generated outputs
are reminiscent of OpenAI's ChatGPT. Perhaps more concerning, the study'd
findings revealed a 74.2% resemblance (via Forbes).
Did DeepSeek train its AI model using OpenAI's copyrighted
content? The tell-tale signs suggest as much
Copyleaks uses screening tech and
algorithm classifiers to identify text generate by AI models. For this specific
study, the classifiers unanimously voted that DeepSeek's outputs were generated
using OpenAI's models.
Interestingly, the AI detection firm has
used this approach to identify text generated by AI models, including OpenAI,
Claude, Gemini, Llama, which it distinguished as unique to each model.
Classifiers use unanimous voting as standard practice to reduce false
positives.
Shai Nisan, head of data science at
Copyleaks indicated:
“Our research utilized a ‘unanimous
jury’ approach and identified a strong stylistic similarity between DeepSeek
and OpenAI’s models, which wasn’t found with other inspected models."
While investors had begun raising
concern about the large amounts invested in developing and training AI models,
the study's findings raises questions about DeepSeek's AI model training and
development and whether its approach was truly cost-effective.
More
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
This
weekend’s music diversion. Really great American
music. A blast from my past, when I used
to listen to this great band in NYC in the 80s when they played in Red Blazer 2,
every Tuesday from 8pm. Within walking distance from my flat on E 87th Street
between Lexington and Park.
Visiting
guests from USA, UK, and Europe always enjoyed dining there as my guest while VG
and his most exceptional band performed
bringing back the lively music of the 20s and early 30s.
Approx.
3 minutes and 5 minutes.
"Putt'in
On The Ritz" - Vince Giordano and the Nighthawks
"Putt'in On
The Ritz" - Vince Giordano and the Nighthawks
Vince
Giordano and the Nighthawks - Who's Sorry Now?
Vince Giordano and
the Nighthawks - Who's Sorry Now?
But, 75 year old poor Anglo-Scot, Graeme, also likes this sort of music too. My a apologies for the accompanying pictures. We can all be what we want to be, if open minded.
Sacris
Solemnis- DOMENICO ZIPOLI ~Música del Archivo Musical de Chiquitos (S.XVIII)
Sacris
Solemnis- DOMENICO ZIPOLI ~Música del Archivo Musical de Chiquitos (S.XVIII) -
YouTube
Handel:
Solomon-Nightingale chorus.
Handel:
Solomon-Nightingale chorus - YouTube
This
weekend’s chess diversion. Approx 10
minutes.
Awoken
From his Slumber" || Shankland vs Wei Yi || Prague International Chess
Festival (2025)
"Awoken From
his Slumber" || Shankland vs Wei Yi || Prague International Chess Festival
(2025)
With
a foursome hit in Graeme’s music. this
weekend no weekend final diversion.
However much you deny the truth, the truth goes on existing.
George Orwell.
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