Baltic Dry Index. 1658 -11 Brent Crude 71.42
Spot Gold 3012 US 2 Year Yield 4.06 +0.04
US Federal Debt. 36.610 trillion!!
'It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting, but for freedom - for that alone, which no honest man gives up but with life itself.'
Thus our nation under their protection did indeed live in freedom and peace up to the time when that mighty prince the King of the Americas, Trump, the one who reigns today, when our kingdom had no head (Trudeau) and our people harboured no malice or treachery and were then unused to wars or invasions, came in the guise of a friend and ally to harass them as an enemy.
Declaration of Ottawa 2025, with apologies to Arbroath 1320.
In the stock casinos, a bounce, a
correction, or the start of the Great Trump bear market?
What
will the Fed do to their key interest rate tomorrow? But would a rate cut really stop a new stocks
bear market if that’s what the tyrant King’s minions ministers want?
Asia-Pacific
markets rise as Hong Kong tech stocks rally; Baidu shares pop 9%
Updated
Mon, Mar 17 2025 11:52 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific
markets rose on Tuesday, tracking gains on Wall Street, which ticked up
after U.S.
retail sales data appeared to ease recession concerns.
Hong
Kong’s Hang Seng Index led
gains in Asia, rising 1.93% on the back of strong moves in tech giants like
Baidu, which was up 9.83% as at 11:46 a.m. local time.
Meanwhile,
mainland China’s CSI 300 was
up 0.15%, reversing course from losses in the previous session.
Investors
will be keeping a close watch on Japanese markets, as the Bank of Japan kicks
off its two-day monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. The central bank is widely
expected to hold
interest rates steady at 0.5% when the meeting concludes on Wednesday.
The
BOJ’s two-day meeting coincides with the U.S. Federal Reserve, with the latter
also expected to keep interest rates unchanged.
Japan’s
benchmark Nikkei 225 rallied
1.43%, while the broader Topix index rose 1.41%.
Over
in South Korea, the Kospi index
advanced 0.17%, while the small-cap Kosdaq added 0.11% in choppy trade.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 traded flat,
paring gains from earlier in the session.
India’s
benchmark Nifty 50 had ticked
up 0.45% at the open, while the BSE Sensex increased 0.43%.
U.S. futures
edged down, even after all three benchmarks made a comeback from a
four-week decline exacerbated by falling consumer confidence and U.S. President
Donald Trump’s chaotic tariff policy rollout.
The S&P 500 gained 0.64% to
close at 5,675.12, while the Nasdaq
Composite climbed 0.31% and ended at 17,808.66. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also
advanced 353.44 points, or 0.85%, to end at 41,841.63.
The
30-stock index was bolstered by gains in Walmart and International Business Machines.
All three of the major averages posted back-to-back gains.
Investors
have seen ‘whiff’ of stagflation, Mohamed El-Erian says
Market
participants have gotten a taste of what so-called stagflation would
look like, according to Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz.
Stagflation
refers to a combination of higher prices and slower economic growth. Though
this economic setup has not been seen in the U.S. in half a century, President
Donald Trump’s tariff policy has raised alarm that it could be coming back.
“I
call it a whiff of stagflation,” El-Erian said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell:
Overtime.”
El-Erian
added that investors should keep an eye out for anything that can show growth
is cooling toward 1%, which he called “stall speed.”
Asia
markets live: Bank of Japan and Fed meeting in focus
Stock
futures edge down even after major averages book two straight winning days:
Live updates
Updated
Tue, Mar 18 2025 10:55 PM EDT
Stock
futures edged down on Monday night following two consecutive winning sessions
that offered a reprieve from the market’s recent sell-off.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell
84 points, or 0.2%. S&P
500 futures was down 0.24% while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped
0.34%.
Those
moves follow a second-straight
winning session on Wall Street. That marks a turn after several
tough weeks on Wall Street as some soft economic data and President
Donald Trump’s on-again-off-again tariff policy left investors wary of the
U.S.′ financial health.
The S&P 500 officially
entered correction territory last week, but the index has made up some
notable ground in the recovery rally seen in Friday and Monday’s sessions.
Despite the recent bounce, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite still sits
in a correction,
a term used to describe an index falling at least 10% from a recent high. The
three major averages all remain down on the year, underscoring the strength of
the market’s pullback.
While
investors continue to follow updates out of the White House, they’ll turn their
attention to the Federal
Reserve two-day policy meeting that kicks off Tuesday.
Traders
will closely follow Wednesday afternoon’s interest rate announcement and
subsequent press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Fed funds futures are
pricing in a 99% likelihood that the central bank holds rates
steady, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
“We
had two distinct stages to what was the fifth fastest correction since World
War II: The first one was a good old growth scare, then we had pretty nasty
technicals,” said Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz. “Most of
the bad technicals are behind us. So the two questions going forward is: Will
the growth scare be contained? And will the hope in the Fed put prove realistic
or not?”
Before
Wednesday’s rate policy announcement, investors will monitor economic data on
imports, housing, building and production due Tuesday morning. There are no
major earnings reports expected on Tuesday.
Stock
market today: Live updates
Gold
hits record high as tariff uncertainty fuels safe-haven demand
18
March 2025
(Reuters)
- Gold prices scaled a record peak above the crucial $3,000-mark on Tuesday for
the second time within a week, as investors sought cover from economic concerns
fuelled by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies.
Spot
gold was up 0.2% at $3,008.08 an ounce as of 0249 GMT after hitting a record
high of $3,012.05 per ounce earlier in the session.
Gold
rose above the $3,000/oz milestone for the first time on Friday.
U.S.
gold futures rose 0.4% to $3,017.60.
Historically
considered a hedge against geopolitical instability, gold has risen more than
14% so far this year. Since Trump took office in January, gold has hit a record
high 14 times as trade tensions have boosted safe-haven demand.
Trump
has floated plans for a series of U.S. tariffs, from a flat 25% on steel and
aluminium which came into effect in February, and reciprocal and sectoral
tariffs that he said will be imposed on April 2.
"Gold
is moving higher on account of a weaker dollar and continued tariff
uncertainties ... With Gold at record highs there is a lot of technical and
chart based buying that kicks in since there is no resistance apparent on the
charts," said Marex analyst Edward Meir.
The
U.S. dollar index wallowed near a five-month trough, making gold cheaper for
overseas buyers. [US/][USD/]
New
economic projections from Federal Reserve officials this week will provide the
most tangible evidence yet of the likely impact of Trump administration
policies.
Forecasters
have marked down their expectations for U.S. growth this year, raised concerns
about a potential recession, and expect increased inflation.
An
Israeli air strike killed three Palestinians in Gaza on Monday, medics said,
with no sign of progress in renewed talks on sustaining a ceasefire deal
between Israel and Hamas.
"These
Israeli air strikes may also see tensions flare in the Middle East again and
that could add to the litany of drivers pushing gold higher,"
Capital.com's financial market analyst Kyle Rodda said.
Spot
silver gained 0.2% to $33.89 an ounce, platinum added 0.5% to $1,004.65 and
palladium rose 0.5% to $969.6.
Gold
hits record high as tariff uncertainty fuels safe-haven demand
In other news.
U.S.
and global economic outlooks cut by OECD as Trump’s trade tariffs weigh on
growth
Published
Mon, Mar 17 2025 6:08 AM EDT
Both
U.S. and global economic growth is set to be lower than previously projected as
President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on goods imported to the U.S. weigh
on growth, according to the latest estimates from the Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development.
“Global
GDP growth is projected to moderate from 3.2% in 2024, to 3.1% in 2025 and 3.0%
in 2026, with higher trade barriers in several G20 economies and increased
geopolitical and policy uncertainty weighing on investment and household
spending,” the OECD said Monday in its interim Economic Outlook report.
“Annual
GDP growth in the United States is projected to slow from its strong recent
pace, to be 2.2% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026.”
In
its previous projections, published in December, the OECD had estimated 3.3%
global economic growth this year and next. The U.S. economy had been expected
to grow 2.4% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026.
Mathias
Cormann, secretary-general of the OECD, on Monday said that the uncertainty
around trade policy was a key factor in the organization’s projections.
“There’s
a very significant level of uncertainty right now, and you know it is clear
that the global economy would benefit from increases in certainty when it comes
to the trade policy settings,” he told CNBC’s Silvia Amaro.
In
its report, the OECD said its latest projections were “based on an assumption
that bilateral tariffs between Canada and the United States and between Mexico
and the United States are raised by an additional 25 percentage points on
almost all merchandise imports from April.”
If
the tariff increases were lower, or applied to fewer goods, economic activity
would be stronger and inflation would be lower than projected, “but global
growth would still be weaker than previously expected,” the report noted.
Canada
and Mexico, both on the receiving end of
tariffs imposed by the U.S., saw their growth outlooks slashed dramatically.
Canada’s economy is now expected to grow 0.7% this year, down from the previous
2% estimate, and Mexico’s is projected to shrink by 1.3% — compared to a
previously estimated 1.2% expansion.
The
OECD also updated its inflation forecast, saying price growth was set to be
higher than previously expected, but would ease due to moderating economic
growth.
More,
much more.
U.S. and global
economic outlooks cut by OECD as Trump's trade tariffs weigh on growth
Retail
sales increased 0.2% in February, though spending up less than expected
Published
Mon, Mar 17 2025 8:32 AM EDT
Consumers
spent at a slower-than-expected pace in February, though underlying readings
indicated that sales still grew at a solid pace despite worries over an
economic slowdown and rising inflation.
Retail sales increased
0.2% on the month, better than the downwardly revised decline of 1.2% the prior
month but below the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.6% rise, according to the
advanced reading Monday from the Commerce Department. Excluding autos, the
increase was 0.3%, in line with expectations.
The
sales number is adjusted for seasonal factors but not for inflation. Prices
rose 0.2% on the month, according to a previous Labor Department report,
indicating that spending was about on pace with inflation.
The
so-called control group, which strips out noncore sectors and feeds directly
into gross domestic product calculations, rose a better-than-expected 1%.
“Not
a great report, but one still in positive territory despite how pessimistic
consumers are about the future,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy
Federal Credit Union. “But the main factor in consumer spending is consumer
income, and that’s growing at a good rate and had an impressive leap in
January.”
Online
spending helped boost the sales number for the month, with nonstore retailers
reporting a 2.4% increase. Health and personal care showed a 1.7% gain while
food and beverage outlets saw a 0.4% rise.
On
the downside, bars and restaurants reported a 1.5% decrease, while gas stations
were off 1% amid falling prices at the pump.
Sales
overall increased 3.1% on a year-over-year basis, better than the 2.8%
inflation rate as measured by the consumer price index.
One
other downbeat note from the report was a steep revision for January, which
originally was reported as a 0.9% decline.
The
release comes amid heightened worries over economic growth, particularly as
President Donald Trump engages in
an aggressive tariff battle with leading U.S. trading partners. Economists
worry that the tariffs will drive up inflation and slow the economy.
More
Retail sales
increased 0.2% in February, though spending up less than expected
Finally, does President Trump actually want a stock casinos bear market? If so, he’s very likely to want it in year one of his final four year presidency.
Why
are Trump supporters claiming he wants to crash the US stock market?
Some
MAGA followers are spreading an unsubstantiated theory related to the cost of
the US national debt.
By Erin Hale Published On 17 Mar 2025
The
US stock market has had a bumpy ride since United States President Donald
Trump’s election in November.
After
hitting record highs in the aftermath of Trump’s victory, US stocks have shed
trillions of dollars amid his dizzying back-and-forth announcements on tariffs
and growing fears of a recession.
While
Trump has played down the turbulence as a temporary “period of transition” on
the road to a stronger economy, supporters and critics of the US president
alike have speculated without evidence that he may be trying to crash the stock
market on purpose.
What
is happening with the US stock market?
Trump’s
vacillating economic policies have created uncertainty – something investors
famously dislike.
The
benchmark S&P500, which tracks the performance of 500 of the biggest US
firms, has lost nearly $5 trillion in value from its February 19 peak.
On
March 10, the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 4 percent – its worst single-day drop
since September 2022.
Regardless
of whether Trump is playing the long game as he claims, the past month “stands
out for both the amount of uncertainty and the variety of fronts”, Tara
Sinclair, director of the George Washington University Center for Economic
Research, told Al Jazeera.
The
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, which the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
produces based on news coverage of economic policy-related issues, in February
hit its highest level since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
The
Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index in January reached its highest point
on record apart from May 2020.
Why
are some people claiming that Trump wants to crash the stock market?
There
are several unsubstantiated theories about why Trump might want to crash the
stock market, but chief among them is that he is trying to make it easier to
pay off the US’s $36 trillion national debt by lowering interest rates.
Since
taking office, Trump has both expressed concern about the size of the debt and
called on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
In
a recent interview with FOX News, he claimed that “nobody ever gets rich when
the interest rates are high, because people can’t borrow money.”
With
a debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio of about 120 percent, the federal
debt is approaching its highest level since the end of World War II.
It
is also expensive to pay off – the US government last year spent more than $1
trillion on interest payments alone.
Some
Trump supporters have claimed that he is intentionally trying to induce
economic pain to force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which would
make it cheaper to refinance the national debt.
“Trump
is setting up a stock market crash. The US government needs to refinance $7
trillion in debt over the next 6 months,” crypto influencer and investor Thomas
Kralow, who has more than 500,000 YouTube followers, said on X last week.
“Trump
doesn’t want this done at current 10-year yields. This is why he’s letting the
stock market drop while pushing bond prices higher,” Kralow said, adding this
would create “short term pain, long term gain”
More
It is a
popular delusion that the government wastes vast amounts of money through
inefficiency and sloth. Enormous effort and elaborate planning are required to
waste this much money.
P. J.
O'Rourke
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Wall
Street’s recession odds are starting to look like a coin flip as Trump refuses
to back down on his trade war
March
17, 2025
- Wall Street
is raising the probability that the US economy will slip into a recession, with some
economists seeing 50-50 odds. That's as President Donald Trump shows no
signs of backing down on his aggressive tariff plans, including reciprocal
duties set to take effect in a few weeks.
The likelihood that the US
economy will slip into a recession is rising on Wall Street, with some
economists even seeing 50-50 odds.
JPMorgan chief economist
Bruce Kasman told reporters in Singapore on Wednesday that he now
sees a roughly 40% recession risk,
up from about 30% at the start of the year.
But he added that recession odds would rise to
50% or above if President Donald Trump's planned reciprocal tariffs, which are
due to take effect April 2, meaningfully come in to force.
"If we would continue down this road of
what would be more disruptive, business-unfriendly policies, I think the risks
on that recession front would go up," Kasman said.
Meanwhile, former Treasury Secretary Larry
Summers warned that the chances of a recession are about 50%, citing Trump's
tariffs, immigration crackdown, and mass federal layoffs, which are combining
to cause sharp reductions in consumer and business spending plans.
When economic forecasts start being revised in a
certain direction, there tends to be momentum, he told
Bloomberg TV on Tuesday. And all the revisions
are going toward less growth.
"I think we've got a real uncertainty
problem," Summers added. "I think it's going to be hard to fix that.
And we're looking at a slowdown relative to what was forecast almost for sure
and serious near-50% prospect of recession."
Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi
raised his recession odds to 35% from 15% at the start of the, citing tariffs.
But if Trump follows through with his tariff
plans and stays there for more than a few months, that would be enough to push
the economy into recession, he told
Bloomberg TV on Wednesday.
For now, he has hope that negotiations will lead
to tariffs getting reeled back in, which is keeping his forecast below 50%.
"But I don't say that with any confidence
with each passing day," Zandi said. "And of course, the uncertainty
around all of this is doing damage."
In fact, surveys of consumers and businesses show
that they are turning increasingly gloomy about the economy amid tariff
uncertainty and mass federal layoffs. Even executives in deep-red states that voted
for Trump say seeing business conditions are collapsing.
Elsewhere on Wall Street, recession
probabilities aren't as high, but they are rising sharply. Market gurus Ed
Yardeni and Eric Wallerstein said earlier this month that
they see odds of a bear market and a tariff-induced recession at 35%, up from
20%.
And Allianz chief economic advisor Mohamed El-Erian lifted
his recession probability to 25%-30% from 10% at the beginning of the year.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was asked
on NBC's Meet the Press on Sunday if he could guarantee there won't be a recession,
and he replied that there are no guarantees, adding that his earlier comment of
an economic adjustment doesn't mean there has to be a recession.
More
Britain ‘headed for recession’ as Reeves plots spending cuts
Christopher Jasper Mon, March 17, 2025 at 6:30 AM GMT
Britain is on course for a recession as
employers slash jobs and Rachel Reeves plots spending cuts, a major think tank
has warned.
The Resolution Foundation said that the Chancellor
is set to break her own fiscal rules, having put Britain on course for a £4.4bn
budget deficit.
Analysis of official payroll data shows the UK jobs
market “is already in recession territory” after Ms Reeves announced a record
tax raid, the think tank said, with the number of people in work falling at a
pace consistent with an economic contraction.
Ms Reeves, the Chancellor, is expected to resort to swingeing cuts to disability spending in
an attempt to balance the books as she prepares to update the country on the
state of the public finances in next week’s statement.
The warning on jobs came as Make UK revealed that
half of manufacturers have frozen hiring in the wake of Reeves’s tax raids and
concern about slumping orders, with a quarter considering job cuts.
Research from the Recruitment & Employment
Confederation (REC) meanwhile showed that the number of job listings flatlined
last month, while a survey of 1,500 top business leaders indicated that a
majority think a recession is likely this year.
Britain had appeared to be heading for recession –
defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth – in the second half of
last year before the economy unexpectedly grew 0.1pc in the three months
through December.
The foundation said the jobs data adds to evidence
of a deteriorating outlook that includes projections for GDP to be 1.2pc lower than
anticipated at the time of the Chancellor’s autumn Budget, and for inflation
and interest rates to be 0.4 percentage points higher.
It said that without fresh policy action, the
Office of Budget Responsibility will be compelled to revise down its
projections from a surplus of £9.9bn in 2029-30 to a deficit of around £4.4bn,
and that Reeves would therefore “be breaking her newly-legislated fiscal
rules.”
The Chancellor’s so-called stability rule says the
current Budget should be on course to be in balance or surplus by 2029-30.
James Smith, the foundation’s research director,
said that turmoil on the markets in the past few weeks had highlighted
Britain’s sensitivity to global shocks, meaning Ms Reeves must act decisively
to diminish the risk of further damaging increases in the cost of borrowing.
---- A survey of business leaders carried out by Boston
Consulting Group indicates that recession fears are increasing, with pessimism
surrounding economic growth, consumer confidence and the business environment
even more entrenched than last year.
Some 57pc of executives now regard a recession as
likely this year, up from 50pc in the previous poll. Only companies in
industries likely to benefit from Labour’s expected building boom were more
upbeat.
The threat of higher taxes has emerged as the
biggest concern for business, surpassing fears around increased energy bills.
Nearly two thirds of chief executives are bracing
for a jump in running costs as a result of the Chancellor’s £25bn increase in
employer National Insurance contributions, which takes effect next month.
Make UK painted a grim picture of frozen
recruitment with redundancies on the way, allied to delayed or cancelled
investment plans.
It said: “Britain’s manufacturers have hit the
buffers as a wave of increasing employment taxes and wider business costs bites
hard, as well as worries of a global trade war.”
Make UK said that 48pc of companies have halted
hiring, with more than a quarter looking at offloading staff. Four in 10 are
also set to reduce planned pay increases. It urged ministers to consider
reforms to the business rates system to remove disincentives to invest.
Britain ‘headed for recession’ as
Reeves plots spending cuts
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the development
of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported.
New Method Can
Recycle All Parts of a Modern Solar Cell with Water: ‘We Can Recycle
Everything’
By Good News Network Mar 16, 2025
Solar
is one of the best solutions to the growing demand for renewable green energy.
However, while conventional solar panels contribute to clean energy production,
their disposal presents several environmental challenges.
Now, a
groundbreaking innovation may change that: researchers have developed a method
to fully recycle modern solar panels using water as the main solvent, which
would make it a truly sustainable energy.
The
method from scientists at Linköping University in Sweden can recycle all parts
of a modern solar cell repeatedly without environmentally hazardous
solvents—and the recycled solar cell has the same efficiency as the original
one.
The
method works with one of the most promising technologies for next-generation
solar cells: perovskite.
Perovskite
solar cells are not only relatively inexpensive and easy to manufacture
but also lightweight, flexible, and transparent. Thanks to these properties,
they can be placed on many different surfaces, like windows. Also, they can
convert up to 25 percent of the solar energy into electricity—comparable to
today’s silicon solar cells.
However,
silicon panels are at the end of their life cycle, which has created a landfill
problem.
“There
is currently no efficient technology to deal with the waste of silicon panels.
That’s why old solar panels end up in the landfill,” says Xun Xiao, in the
Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology at Linköping University.
“We
need to take recycling into consideration when developing emerging solar cell
technologies,” said Feng Gao, a professor of optoelectronics at the same
Swedish college.
“There
are many companies that want to get perovskite solar cells on the market right
now, but we’d like to avoid another landfill,” adds
Niansheng Xu, postdoc at LiU. “In this project, we’ve developed a method where
all parts can be reused in a new perovskite solar cell without compromising
performance in the new one.”
Given
that perovskite solar cells currently have a shorter life span than silicon
solar cells, it is important that perovskite solar cell recycling is efficient
and environmentally friendly. They also contain a small amount of lead,
necessary for high efficiency, so this also must be addressed in a functioning
recycling process.
Water
as the solvent
There
are already methods for dismantling perovskite solar cells. This mostly
involves using a substance called dimethylformamide, a common ingredient in
paint solvents. It is toxic, environmentally hazardous, and potentially
carcinogenic. What the LiU team has done instead is develop a technology where
water can be used as a solvent in dismantling the degraded perovskites.
And
more importantly, high-quality perovskites can be recycled from the water
solution used.
“We
can recycle everything—covering glasses, electrodes, perovskite layers, and
also the charge transport layer,” said Xun Xiao.
The
next step for the researchers is to develop the method for larger scale use in
an industrial process.
Researchers
have published their
study in the journal Nature, and have applied for patents on their
technology.
New Method Can
Recycle All Parts of a Modern Solar Cell with Water: ‘We Can Recycle
Everything’
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
There
is far more danger in public than in private monopoly, for when Government goes
into business it can always shift its losses to the taxpayers. Government never
makes ends meet and that is the first requisite of business.
Thomas
A. Edison
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