Wednesday, 19 March 2025

Fed Day Two. US Recession Looms. Gaza “War” Restarts.

Baltic Dry Index. 1650 -08         Brent Crude 70.33

Spot Gold 3042             US 2 Year Yield 4.04  -0.02  

US Federal Debt. 36.614 trillion!!

I'd throw dollars out of helicopters if I had to, to stimulate the economy.

Ben Bernanke

In the stock casinos, rising fears that the current pull back is more than a correction.

Can the Powell Fed save the stock casinos later in the day?  If not, just how bad will the next NASDAQ bear market get?

Asia-Pacific markets mixed following losses on Wall Street; Gold prices hit fresh record high

Updated Wed, Mar 19 2025 1:28 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on Wednesday, following declines on Wall Street after a sell-off in technology stocks picked up pace.

Japanese markets were in focus for investors. The Bank of Japan held interest rates steady at 0.5%, in line with expectations, as the central bank weighed the potential impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 was trading flat in its final hour, while the broader Topix index increased 0.59%.

Over in South Korea, the Kospi index advanced 0.74%, while the small-cap Kosdaq fell .99% in its last hour of trade.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 was flat, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index edged up 0.24%.

India’s benchmark Nifty 50 rose 0.21% while the broader BSE Sensex picked up 0.23%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 ended the day 0.41% lower at 7,828.30.

Gold prices hit a record high, with the precious metal trading at $3,038.06 at 1.27 p.m. Singapore time.

U.S. futures edged up, as investors await the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

All three benchmarks were back in the red after two straight winning sessions.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 260.32 points, or 0.62%, closing at 41,581.31. The S&P 500 shed 1.07%, ending at 5,614.66. The broad market index concluded the day 8.6% off its closing high reached in February, bringing it near correction territory. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.71% and settled at 17,504.12.

Tesla, one of the stocks hardest hit during the market’s recent correction, was down yet again on Tuesday. The stock fell more than 5% after RBC Capital Markets lowered its price target on the electric vehicle name, given stiff competition in the EV space.

Elsewhere, shares of Palantir and Nvidia dropped nearly 4% and more than 3%, respectively. The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) was also down more than 1%.

Asia markets live: Stocks in focus as Bank of Japan holds on rates

CNBC Daily Open: The mood on Wall Street is grim as stocks slide

Published Tue, Mar 18 2025 8:51 PM EDT

----U.S. stocks resume sliding
The sell-off in U.S. stocks resumed Tuesday. The S&P 500 shed 1.07%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.62% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.71%. Tesla shares slumped more than 5% after RBC Capital Markets lowered its price target on the stock. Across the Atlantic, the Stoxx 600 index rose 0.61%. Germany’s DAX index climbed 0.98% after the country’s Bundestag, or parliament, on Tuesday afternoon voted in favor of a major fiscal package.

Investor sentiment slumps: surveys
Respondents to the March CNBC Fed Survey raised the probability of recession to 36% from 23% in January while lowering their average GDP forecast for 2025 to 1.7% from 2.4%. Separately, the Bank of America’s Global Fund Manager Survey showed the biggest pullback in overall investor sentiment since March 2020. Indeed, data from Barclays revealed individual investors have not been buying the dip during the market correction.

Nvidia announces new AI chips
Nvidia unveiled at its GTC conference Tuesday Blackwell Ultra, an upgrade of its current family of artificial intelligence chips, as well as Vera Rubin, the company’s next-generation graphics processing unit, that is expected to ship in 2026. At a separate announcement, General Motors and Nvidia said they are collaborating on using AI services for vehicles and driver-assistant systems.

More

CNBC Daily Open: The mood on Wall Street is grim as stocks slide

Stock futures edge up as traders await Federal Reserve’s rate decision: Live updates

Updated Wed, Mar 19 2025 1:31 AM EDT

Stock futures ticked up early Wednesday as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision looms.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 50 points, or 0.12%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures inched up 0.16% and 0.25% respectively.

Investors are coming off of a rough Tuesday, which saw the recent market sell-off come back in full force after two winning sessions.

In regular trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.6%, while the S&P 500 shed more than 1%. The broad market index ended the day off 8.6% from its February record close. The Nasdaq Composite declined 1.7% as shares of technology darlings TeslaPalantir and Nvidia fell.

The major averages have been on a roller-coaster ride in recent weeks, as traders navigate soft economic data and uncertainty around President Donald Trump’s tariff policy. The S&P 500 officially entered correction territory last week, and the Nasdaq is still in a correction — meaning it’s down more than 10% from its recent high.

Investors are preparing for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision due at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday – another possible catalyst for markets.

More

Stock market today: Live updates

The Fed will update its rate projections Wednesday. Here’s what to expect

Published Tue, Mar 18 20253:48 PM EDT Updated Tue, Mar 18 20254:24 PM EDT

Federal Reserve officials at this week’s meeting are expected to hold interest rates steady but adjust their views on the economy and possibly the future path for interest rates.

If market pricing is correct, there’s virtually no chance central bank policymakers budge from the current level of their key interest rate, targeted in a range between 4.25%-4.5%. Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues in recent weeks have advocated a patient approach in which they don’t need to be in a hurry to do anything.

However, they are also expected to drop clues about where things go from here against the uncertain backdrop of President Donald Trump’s trade and fiscal policies. That could include anything from tweaks in projections for inflation and economic growth to how often, if at all, they expect to lower interest rates further.

“There’s no chance of a cut Wednesday, so all the other stuff becomes more important,” said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade North America. “They’re basically going to say, ‘You know what, we are in no hurry at all now.’”

Indeed, that has been the prevailing message from Powell and his Federal Open Market Committee colleagues. In a speech earlier this month to economists in New York, Powell insisted “there is no need to be in a hurry” as central bankers seek “greater clarity” on where the Trump administration is headed.

The public, then, will be left to pore through updates the Fed makes to its quarterly projections on interest rates, gross domestic product, unemployment and inflation. Based on recent data, the Fed could raise its 2025 outlook for inflation (in December, the outlook was for 2.5% in both core and headline) while lowering its GDP projection (from 2.1%). Powell will host his usual post-meeting news conference.

On the rate question, the Federal Open Market Committee will use its “dot plot” grid of individual members’ intentions.

There’s significant disagreement on what could happen there. The committee could maintain its December outlook for two cuts, remove one or both, or, improbably, add another as a statement of concern over a potential slowdown. Everything seems to be on the table.

More

The Fed will update its rate projections Wednesday. What to expect

In other news, just how accurate are US stock casino price reports? Does anyone really know? Sounds like another Wall Street scam to me.

Darker Than a Dark Pool? Welcome to Wall Street’s ‘Private Rooms’

Mon, March 17, 2025 at 1:29 PM GMT 

(Bloomberg) -- Wall Street’s infamous dark pools are getting even darker.

A decade after being engulfed by a controversy that culminated in multiple enforcement actions and a regulator clampdown, these off-exchange trading platforms are touting a way to buy and sell stocks that’s even more opaque.

They’re offering what are dubbed private rooms, gated venues that take the core benefit of a dark pool — the ability to hide big equity deals so they won't impact prices — and add exclusivity, specifying exactly who can partake in any trade.

Created within the dark pools themselves, the rooms are independent from one another and each is invisible to anyone not invited, raising questions about both market transparency and fragmentation. But with more than half of all US stock trading now happening away from public exchanges, they’re in high demand from firms eager to choose whom they do business with, often to help them carry out individual orders more efficiently.

“It’s like shopping when you know exactly the item you want, and who and where you are buying or selling it from, instead of going to Walmart on Black Friday,” says David Cannizzo, the head of electronic trading at Raymond James and Associates. “You’re controlling the terms of engagement.”

Right now, it’s impossible to say how many private rooms exist, or how much activity is moving through them. Companies operating alternative trading systems, or ATS — the formal term for dark pools — say it’s a minority of their volumes at present, since the growth in demand is a relatively new phenomenon.

But they’re seeing rapid adoption by everyone from broker-dealers and market makers to hedge funds and asset managers, so much so that private-room volumes at one major ATS — Stamford, Connecticut-based IntelligentCross — now eclipse the total trading activity at nine rival dark-pool operators.

Dark pools are so-called because the trades they handle happen away from the “lit” public exchange. That helps prevent order details leaking to the broader market and triggering adverse price moves before they can be executed. But there’s still a downside: a pool is open to anyone, and firms inside never know who their counterparty is in any trade. Private rooms can be even more discreet.

“It’s about exercising control, what liquidity a broker wants to interact with to achieve better execution quality,” says Roman Ginis, CEO of Imperative Execution, the parent company of IntelligentCross.

There are myriad reasons why users may opt for private rooms. Take the case of CastleOak Securities, a New York-based minority-run brokerage. The firm wants to trade with similarly minded businesses, so it uses a private room provided by the ATS operator OneChronos.

Carlos Cabana, head of equity sales and trading at CastleOak, dubs the room a “diversity pool,” because the participants are all minority-operated brokerage firms. While in this instance CastleOak doesn’t know specifically who is on the other side of every trade, it knows it will be one of about 10 counterparties who meet certain eligibility criteria related to ownership and investment goals.

More

Darker Than a Dark Pool? Welcome to Wall Street’s ‘Private Rooms’

Economics is a highly sophisticated field of thought that is superb at explaining to policymakers precisely why the choices they made in the past were wrong. About the future, not so much.

Ben Bernanke

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Trump policies ‘promise’ an economic downturn, says prominent forecaster in first-ever ‘recession watch’

Published Tue, Mar 18 2025 8:17 PM EDT

The UCLA Anderson Forecast, citing substantial changes to the economy from policies of the Trump administration, issued its first-ever “recession watch” on Tuesday.

UCLA Anderson, which has been issuing forecasts since 1952, said the administration’s tariff and immigration policies and plans to reduce the federal workforce could combine to cause the economy to contract. 

Its analysis was titled, “Trump Policies, If Fully Enacted, Promise a Recession.”

“While there are no signs of a recession happening yet, it is entirely possible that one could form in the near term,” stated a news release from the forecaster. 

U.S. recessions are only officially declared by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The committee employs a variety of indicators, including production, employment, income and growth to determine if the economy is contracting. At the moment, none of the specific indicators look to be near levels that would prompt the committee to declare recession. 

The average respondent to the CNBC Fed Survey for March, published Tuesday, forecast a 36% recession probability in the next year, up from 23% in the prior month. But it remains well below the 50% level that prevailed from 2022 and 2023 in the wake of the pandemic and turned out to be wrong. That shows how difficult it is to predict a recession, or even determine if the economy is in one. The Fed Survey also shows that a recession is not the base case for most Wall Street forecasters, only that the concern is somewhat elevated.

Recessions occur when multiple sectors of the economy contract at the same time. The UCLA Anderson Forecast said reductions to the workforce from the administration’s immigration policies could create labor shortages, tariffs will raise prices and could lead to a contraction in the manufacturing sector while changes to federal spending will reduce employment for government workers and private contractors.

“If these and their consequent feedback into the demand for goods and services occur simultaneously, they create a recipe for a recession,” the statement from the forecaster said. 

More

Trump policies 'promise' an economic downturn, says prominent forecaster in first-ever 'recession watch'

Disturbing new sign that US economy is teetering on brink of recession

Published: 15:30, 17 March 2025 | Updated: 18:49, 17 March 2025

Americans are falling behind on car payments at record rates — echoing the warning signs of the 2008 financial crisis. 

Nearly 6.6 percent of subprime auto borrowers — those with low credit scores who are considered higher risk — were at least 60 days late on their car loans in January 2025, according to Fitch Ratings. 

The rate sat at 2.58 percent as recently as May 2021 before steadily trending higher.

Before the 2008 recession, a surge in defaults on subprime mortgages triggered a financial meltdown. 

Now, a similar pattern is emerging in the auto loan market, raising concerns that the US economy could be heading for another downturn. 

Buyers are facing higher prices for vehicles, insurance, and repairs at the same time as they're contending with rising rent and costs at the grocery store.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump's trade war with Canada and Mexico looks set to raise the price of new vehicles even more.

The delinquency rate for subprime auto borrowers - the highest since Fitch Ratings began collecting data more than 20 years ago - is another sign that the world's top economy is tipping toward a recession.

---- Some buyers are also opting for extended repayment plans, so they can make their monthly costs more affordable.

The average cost of a new car has risen to $47,000, and $25,000 for used vehicles.

Borrowing rates also have crept up to more than 9 percent on new cars and almost 14 percent on used cars.

Owners are also getting hit by higher incidental costs of ownership.

Car insurance rates are up 19 percent year over year, while repair and maintenance costs have risen 33 percent since 2020.

Jessica Caldwell, an expert at the auto data firm Edmunds, says buyers show mounting signs of stress in a turbulent economy.

More

Disturbing new sign that US economy is teetering on brink of recession | Daily Mail Online

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Two major airlines ban power banks and battery packs on flights this summer

Passengers will not be permitted to charge devices with portable power banks and battery packs while onboard.

14:37, Mon, Mar 17, 2025 | UPDATED: 14:38, Mon, Mar 17, 2025

Two major airlines have announced a ban on the use of power banks and battery packs during flights as part of new safety measures.

Power banks are classed as lithium batteries which pose a fire risk as they are capable of generating extreme heat. Currently, airline passengers must carry no more than two spare batteries exceeding two grams of lithium content for lithium metal, or a watt-hour rating exceeding 100 Wh, and these should be carried in carry-on baggage only. 

But Singapore Airlines and Thai Airways are both introducing new rules that will ban passengers from being able to use power banks or battery packs throughout the duration of flights.

Singapore Airlines says the new rules will take effect from April 1, meaning passengers cannot charge their personal devices via a portable power bank, or charge power banks using onboard USB ports from this point. The airline says power banks must be carried in carry-on luggage and are not permitted in checked bags.

In an update for passengers, Singapore Airlines added: “The SIA Group complies with the International Air Transport Association's (IATA) Dangerous Goods Regulations regarding the carriage of power banks, which are classified as lithium batteries. This means power banks must be carried in cabin baggage on all SIA flights and are not permitted in checked baggage. 

“Customers may bring power banks with a capacity of up to 100Wh without special approval, while those between 100Wh and 160Wh require airline approval.We seek customers’ understanding that safety will always be our top priority.”

Additionally, Thai Airways has now banned passengers from using or charging power banks (spare batteries) during entire flights. The new rule came into effect on March 15 and was implemented to “ensure the highest level of safety for all passengers and crew members”.

Passengers cannot carry power banks in checked baggage, but can do so in their carry-on luggage providing it meets certain requirements.

Two major airlines ban power banks and battery packs on flights | Travel News | Travel | Express.co.uk

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.

Ben Bernanke

No comments:

Post a Comment