Baltic Dry Index. 1650 -08 Brent Crude 70.33
Spot Gold 3042 US 2 Year Yield 4.04 -0.02
US Federal Debt. 36.614 trillion!!
I'd throw dollars out of helicopters if I had to, to stimulate the economy.
Ben Bernanke
In the stock casinos, rising fears that the current pull back is more than a correction.
Can the Powell Fed save the stock casinos later in the day? If not, just how bad will the next NASDAQ bear market get?
Asia-Pacific markets mixed following losses on
Wall Street; Gold prices hit fresh record high
Updated Wed, Mar 19 2025 1:28 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on
Wednesday, following declines on Wall Street after a sell-off in technology
stocks picked up pace.
Japanese markets were in focus for
investors. The Bank of Japan held
interest rates steady at 0.5%, in line with expectations, as the
central bank weighed the potential impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s
tariffs.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 was trading flat
in its final hour, while the broader Topix index increased 0.59%.
Over in South Korea, the Kospi index advanced 0.74%,
while the small-cap Kosdaq fell .99% in its last hour of trade.
Mainland China’s CSI 300 was flat, while Hong
Kong’s Hang Seng Index edged
up 0.24%.
India’s benchmark Nifty 50 rose 0.21% while
the broader BSE Sensex picked up 0.23%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 ended the
day 0.41% lower at 7,828.30.
Gold prices hit a record high, with the
precious metal trading at $3,038.06 at 1.27 p.m. Singapore time.
U.S. futures
edged up, as investors await the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.
All three
benchmarks were back in the red after two straight winning sessions.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost
260.32 points, or 0.62%, closing at 41,581.31. The S&P 500 shed 1.07%,
ending at 5,614.66. The broad market index concluded the day 8.6% off its
closing high reached in February, bringing it near correction territory.
The Nasdaq Composite dropped
1.71% and settled at 17,504.12.
Tesla,
one of the stocks hardest hit during the market’s recent correction, was down
yet again on Tuesday. The stock fell more than 5% after RBC Capital
Markets lowered
its price target on the electric vehicle name, given stiff competition in
the EV space.
Elsewhere, shares of Palantir and Nvidia dropped nearly 4% and
more than 3%, respectively. The Technology
Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) was also down more than 1%.
Asia markets live: Stocks in focus as Bank of Japan holds on rates
CNBC Daily Open: The mood on Wall Street is grim
as stocks slide
Published Tue, Mar 18 2025 8:51 PM EDT
----U.S. stocks resume sliding
The sell-off
in U.S. stocks resumed Tuesday. The S&P 500 shed 1.07%,
the Dow Jones Industrial
Average lost 0.62% and the Nasdaq Composite fell
1.71%. Tesla shares
slumped more than 5% after RBC Capital Markets lowered
its price target on the stock. Across the Atlantic, the Stoxx 600 index rose
0.61%. Germany’s DAX index
climbed 0.98% after the country’s Bundestag, or parliament, on Tuesday
afternoon voted in favor of a major
fiscal package.
Investor sentiment slumps: surveys
Respondents
to the March CNBC Fed Survey raised
the probability of recession to 36% from 23% in January while lowering
their average GDP forecast for 2025 to 1.7% from 2.4%. Separately,
the Bank of America’s
Global Fund Manager Survey showed the biggest
pullback in overall investor sentiment since March 2020. Indeed, data
from Barclays revealed
individual investors have not
been buying the dip during the market correction.
Nvidia announces new AI chips
Nvidia unveiled at its GTC
conference Tuesday Blackwell Ultra, an upgrade of its current family of
artificial intelligence chips, as well as Vera Rubin, the
company’s next-generation graphics processing unit, that is expected to
ship in 2026. At a separate announcement, General Motors and Nvidia said they
are collaborating
on using AI services for vehicles and driver-assistant systems.
More
CNBC Daily Open: The mood on Wall Street is grim as stocks slide
Stock futures edge up as traders await Federal
Reserve’s rate decision: Live updates
Updated Wed, Mar 19 2025 1:31 AM EDT
Stock futures ticked up early Wednesday as
the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision looms.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added
50 points, or 0.12%. S&P
500 futures and Nasdaq
100 futures inched up 0.16% and 0.25% respectively.
Investors are coming off of a rough
Tuesday, which saw the recent market sell-off come back in full force
after two
winning sessions.
In regular trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost
0.6%, while the S&P 500 shed
more than 1%. The broad market index ended the day off 8.6% from its February
record close. The Nasdaq
Composite declined 1.7% as shares of technology darlings Tesla, Palantir and Nvidia fell.
The major averages have been on a
roller-coaster ride in recent weeks, as traders navigate soft economic data and
uncertainty around President Donald Trump’s tariff policy. The S&P
500 officially
entered correction territory last week, and the Nasdaq is still in
a correction —
meaning it’s down more than 10% from its recent high.
Investors are preparing for the Federal Reserve’s interest
rate decision due at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday – another possible catalyst for
markets.
More
Stock
market today: Live updates
The Fed will update its rate projections
Wednesday. Here’s what to expect
Published Tue, Mar 18 20253:48 PM EDT Updated
Tue, Mar 18 20254:24 PM EDT
Federal Reserve officials at this week’s
meeting are expected to hold interest rates steady but adjust their views on
the economy and possibly the future path for interest rates.
If market pricing is correct, there’s
virtually no chance central bank policymakers budge from the current level of
their key interest rate, targeted in a range between 4.25%-4.5%. Chair Jerome Powell and his
colleagues in recent weeks have advocated a patient approach in which they
don’t need to be in a hurry to do anything.
However, they are also expected to drop
clues about where things go from here against the uncertain backdrop of President Donald Trump’s trade and
fiscal policies. That could include anything from tweaks in projections for
inflation and economic growth to how often, if at all, they expect to lower
interest rates further.
“There’s no chance of a cut Wednesday, so
all the other stuff becomes more important,” said Dan North, senior economist
at Allianz Trade North America. “They’re basically going to say, ‘You know
what, we are in no hurry at all now.’”
Indeed, that has been the prevailing
message from Powell and his Federal Open Market Committee colleagues. In
a speech earlier
this month to
economists in New York, Powell insisted “there is no need to be in a hurry” as
central bankers seek “greater clarity” on where the Trump administration is
headed.
The public, then, will be left to pore
through updates the Fed makes to its quarterly projections on interest rates,
gross domestic product, unemployment and inflation. Based on recent data, the
Fed could raise its 2025 outlook for inflation (in December, the outlook was
for 2.5% in both core and headline) while lowering its GDP projection (from
2.1%). Powell will host his usual post-meeting news conference.
On the rate question, the Federal Open
Market Committee will use its “dot plot” grid of individual members’
intentions.
There’s significant disagreement on what
could happen there. The committee could maintain its December outlook for two
cuts, remove one or both, or, improbably, add another as a statement of concern
over a potential slowdown. Everything seems to be on the table.
More
The Fed will
update its rate projections Wednesday. What to expect
In other news, just how accurate are US stock casino price reports? Does anyone really know? Sounds like another Wall Street scam to me.
Darker Than a Dark Pool? Welcome to Wall Street’s
‘Private Rooms’
Mon, March 17, 2025 at 1:29 PM GMT
(Bloomberg) -- Wall Street’s infamous dark
pools are getting even darker.
A decade after being engulfed by a
controversy that culminated in multiple enforcement actions and a regulator
clampdown, these off-exchange trading platforms are touting a way to buy and
sell stocks that’s even more opaque.
They’re offering what are dubbed private
rooms, gated venues that take the core benefit of a dark pool — the ability to
hide big equity deals so they won't impact prices — and add exclusivity,
specifying exactly who can partake in any trade.
Created within the dark pools themselves,
the rooms are independent from one another and each is invisible to anyone not
invited, raising questions about both market transparency and fragmentation.
But with more than half of all US stock trading now happening away from public
exchanges, they’re in high demand from firms eager to choose whom they do
business with, often to help them carry out individual orders more efficiently.
“It’s like shopping when you know exactly
the item you want, and who and where you are buying or selling it from, instead
of going to Walmart on Black Friday,” says David Cannizzo, the head of
electronic trading at Raymond James and Associates. “You’re controlling the
terms of engagement.”
Right now, it’s impossible to say how many
private rooms exist, or how much activity is moving through them. Companies
operating alternative trading systems, or ATS — the formal term for dark pools
— say it’s a minority of their volumes at present, since the growth in demand
is a relatively new phenomenon.
But they’re seeing rapid adoption by
everyone from broker-dealers and market makers to hedge funds and asset
managers, so much so that private-room volumes at one major ATS — Stamford,
Connecticut-based IntelligentCross — now eclipse the total trading activity at
nine rival dark-pool operators.
Dark pools are so-called because the
trades they handle happen away from the “lit” public exchange. That helps
prevent order details leaking to the broader market and triggering adverse
price moves before they can be executed. But there’s still a downside: a pool
is open to anyone, and firms inside never know who their counterparty is in any
trade. Private rooms can be even more discreet.
“It’s about exercising control, what
liquidity a broker wants to interact with to achieve better execution quality,”
says Roman Ginis, CEO of Imperative Execution, the parent company of
IntelligentCross.
There are myriad reasons why users may opt
for private rooms. Take the case of CastleOak Securities, a New York-based
minority-run brokerage. The firm wants to trade with similarly minded
businesses, so it uses a private room provided by the ATS operator OneChronos.
Carlos Cabana, head of equity sales and
trading at CastleOak, dubs the room a “diversity pool,” because the
participants are all minority-operated brokerage firms. While in this instance
CastleOak doesn’t know specifically who is on the other side of every trade, it
knows it will be one of about 10 counterparties who meet certain eligibility
criteria related to ownership and investment goals.
More
Darker Than a Dark Pool? Welcome to Wall Street’s ‘Private Rooms’
Economics is a highly sophisticated field of thought that is superb at explaining to policymakers precisely why the choices they made in the past were wrong. About the future, not so much.
Ben Bernanke
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Trump
policies ‘promise’ an economic downturn, says prominent forecaster in
first-ever ‘recession watch’
Published
Tue, Mar 18 2025 8:17 PM EDT
The UCLA
Anderson Forecast,
citing substantial changes to the economy from policies of the Trump
administration, issued its first-ever “recession watch” on Tuesday.
UCLA
Anderson, which has been issuing forecasts since 1952, said the
administration’s tariff and immigration policies and plans to reduce the
federal workforce could combine to cause the economy to contract.
Its analysis was titled,
“Trump Policies, If Fully Enacted, Promise a Recession.”
“While
there are no signs of a recession happening yet, it is entirely possible that
one could form in the near term,” stated a news release from the
forecaster.
U.S.
recessions are only officially declared by the Business Cycle Dating Committee
of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The committee employs a variety of
indicators, including production, employment, income and growth to determine if
the economy is contracting. At the moment, none of the specific indicators look
to be near levels that would prompt the committee to declare recession.
The
average respondent to the CNBC Fed Survey for March, published
Tuesday, forecast a 36% recession probability in the next year, up from 23% in
the prior month. But it remains well below the 50% level that prevailed from
2022 and 2023 in the wake of the pandemic and turned out to be wrong. That
shows how difficult it is to predict a recession, or even determine if the
economy is in one. The Fed Survey also shows that a recession is not the base
case for most Wall Street forecasters, only that the concern is somewhat
elevated.
Recessions
occur when multiple sectors of the economy contract at the same time. The UCLA
Anderson Forecast said reductions to the workforce from the administration’s
immigration policies could create labor shortages, tariffs will raise prices
and could lead to a contraction in the manufacturing sector while changes to
federal spending will reduce employment for government workers and private
contractors.
“If
these and their consequent feedback into the demand for goods and services
occur simultaneously, they create a recipe for a recession,” the statement from
the forecaster said.
More
Disturbing new sign that US economy is teetering on brink of recession
Published: 15:30, 17 March 2025 | Updated: 18:49, 17
March 2025
Americans are falling behind on car payments at record rates — echoing the warning signs of the 2008
financial crisis.
Nearly 6.6 percent of
subprime auto borrowers — those with low credit scores who are considered
higher risk — were at least 60 days late on their car loans in January 2025,
according to Fitch Ratings.
The rate sat at 2.58
percent as recently as May 2021 before steadily trending higher.
Before the 2008
recession, a surge in defaults on subprime mortgages triggered a financial
meltdown.
Now, a similar pattern is
emerging in the auto loan market, raising concerns that the US economy could be
heading for another downturn.
Buyers are facing higher
prices for vehicles, insurance, and repairs at the same time as they're
contending with rising rent and costs at the grocery store.
Meanwhile,
President Donald
Trump's trade war with Canada and Mexico looks set to raise the price of new vehicles
even more.
The delinquency rate for
subprime auto borrowers - the highest since Fitch Ratings began collecting data
more than 20 years ago - is another sign that the world's top economy is
tipping toward a recession.
----
Some buyers are also
opting for extended repayment plans, so they can make their monthly costs more
affordable.
The average cost of a new
car has risen to $47,000, and $25,000 for used vehicles.
Borrowing rates also have
crept up to more than 9 percent on new cars and almost 14 percent on used cars.
Owners are also getting
hit by higher incidental costs of ownership.
Car insurance rates are
up 19 percent year over year, while repair and maintenance costs have risen 33
percent since 2020.
Jessica Caldwell, an
expert at the auto data firm Edmunds, says buyers show mounting signs of stress
in a turbulent economy.
More
Disturbing new sign that US economy is teetering on brink of recession |
Daily Mail Online
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Two major
airlines ban power banks and battery packs on flights this summer
Passengers
will not be permitted to charge devices with portable power banks and battery
packs while onboard.
14:37,
Mon, Mar 17, 2025 | UPDATED: 14:38, Mon, Mar 17, 2025
Two
major airlines have announced a ban on the use of power banks and battery packs
during flights as
part of new safety measures.
Power
banks are classed as lithium batteries which pose a fire risk as they are
capable of generating extreme heat. Currently, airline passengers must
carry no more than two spare batteries exceeding two grams of lithium content
for lithium metal, or a watt-hour rating exceeding 100 Wh, and these should be
carried in carry-on baggage only.
But
Singapore Airlines and Thai Airways are both introducing new rules that will
ban passengers from being able to use power banks or battery packs throughout
the duration of flights.
Singapore
Airlines says the new rules will take effect from April 1, meaning passengers
cannot charge their personal devices via a portable power bank, or charge power
banks using onboard USB ports from this point. The airline says power banks
must be carried in carry-on luggage and are not permitted in checked bags.
In an
update for passengers, Singapore Airlines added: “The SIA Group complies with
the International Air Transport Association's (IATA) Dangerous Goods
Regulations regarding the carriage of power banks, which are classified as
lithium batteries. This means power banks must be carried in cabin baggage on
all SIA flights and are not permitted in checked baggage.
“Customers
may bring power banks with a capacity of up to 100Wh without special approval,
while those between 100Wh and 160Wh require airline approval.We seek customers’
understanding that safety will always be our top priority.”
Additionally,
Thai Airways has now banned passengers from using or charging power banks
(spare batteries) during entire flights. The new rule came into effect on March
15 and was implemented to “ensure the highest level of safety for all
passengers and crew members”.
Passengers
cannot carry power banks in checked baggage, but can do so in their carry-on
luggage providing it meets certain requirements.
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
The
U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its
electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it
wishes at essentially no cost.
Ben
Bernanke
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