Baltic
Dry Index. 1635 -02 Brent Crude 72.25
Spot Gold 3030 US 2 Year Yield 3.95 -0.04
US Federal Debt. 36.622 trillion!!
I made a fortune getting out too soon.
J. P. Morgan
Was that it for the US stock casinos bounce? Both the US Fed and the UK’s BOE think that President Trump’s tariffs due to start on Arl 2nd, will lower economic growth, raise inflation and delay future interest rate cuts.
If their guesses on their local economies and the global economy are correct, a good reason to be long gold and silver rather than stocks.
Besides, with the end of month and quarter rapidly approaching, along with the Trump tariffs, sticking with buy the dips in stocks is now a 50:50 bet against sell the rallies.
For the next few weeks in the stock casinos, bunker time. Let only the very bravest stick their head above the trench top.
If President Trump tariff wars bring on 1930 2.0, it will be 1930 2.0 with a Pacific Ocean sized debt burden on countries and consumers alike.
Hong Kong markets fall over 2% as U.S. economic
uncertainties linger, other Asia markets mixed
Updated Fri, Mar 21 2025 11:51 PM EDT
Hong Kong markets fell over 2% on Friday
as Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed, due to uncertainty around the U.S.
economy.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped
1.90%, dragged by healthcare and consumer cyclical stocks, while mainland
China’s CSI 300 fell 1.11%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.36% while
the Topix added 0.7% to rally to its highest since last July, data from LSEG
showed. South Korea’s Kospi added
0.14% while the small-cap Kosdaq dipped 0.38%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 traded 0.37%
higher.
Japan’s headline inflation rose 3.7% year
on year in February, easing from a two-year high of 4% seen in January.
U.S. stock futures traded around the
flatline after an attempt at extending Wednesday’s Federal Reserve-fueled rally
sputtered.
Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 slipped 0.22%,
thwarting the market’s attempts at recovery from a monthlong rout to close at
5,662.89. The Nasdaq
Composite slid 0.33% to end the day at 17,691.63, weighed down by
losses in Apple and Alphabet. The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched
down 11.31 points, or 0.03%, and closed at 41,953.32.
Asia
markets live: Japan CPI, U.S. economy
Stock futures slip as S&P 500 aims to snap
four-week losing streak: Live updates
Updated Fri, Mar 21 2025 1:18 AM EDT
U.S. stock futures fell slightly Friday
morning, following losses on all major indexes on Thursday.
Futures tied to the S&P 500 were marginally
below the flatline. Dow Jones
Industrial Average futures lost 54 points, or 0.13%. Nasdaq 100 futures slipped
0.11%.
The action follows a losing session for
the major averages. On Thursday, the S&P 500 slipped 0.2%,
while the Nasdaq Composite dropped
0.3%. The 30-stock Dow lost
11.31 points, or 0.03%.
On Wednesday, even as Fed policymakers
kept their forecast for two rate cuts this year, they raised their
inflation outlook and trimmed their economic growth expectations. The
forecast raised the specter of stagflation – a scenario of rising inflation as
the economy’s growth slows. Uncertainty around President Donald Trump’s tariff
policies has rattled stocks in recent weeks, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted
that tariffs may “delay” progress
on inflation.
Tariff worries are also weighing on
companies, according to Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset
Management.
“Companies are increasingly citing
confusion and uncertainty around their planning and capital spending and hiring
decisions — and when they pause, it means that they’re slowing down,” he said.
“There’s an element of that playing out in the markets.”
It has been an ugly month, with the Nasdaq
still sitting in correction – that is, more than 10% off its most recent peak –
and the S&P 500 briefly touching correction territory last week.
Nevertheless, the S&P 500 is on pace
for a 0.4% advance week to date, and it’s about to break a four-week losing
streak. The Dow is on track for a 1.1% gain, marking its best weekly
performance since late January. The Nasdaq, however, is off about 0.4% in the
period, heading for its fifth straight losing week and its longest stretch of
weekly losses since May 2022.
Stock
market today: Live updates
Markets Return to the Red as ‘Triple Witching’
Nears
March 20, 2025 at 9:44 PM GMT
Following the S&P 500’s biggest
advance for a Federal
Reserve day since July, the US equity benchmark headed back down on
Thursday. With sentiment still fragile just a week after the
gauge slipped into a correction, the market is heading for a big test on
Friday: The ominously named “triple witching.” During the quarterly event that
often stokes volatility, an estimated $4.5
trillion of options contracts expire.
After the central bank kept rates steady this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell sought
to calm investors about mounting growth and inflation concerns, though he also
used the word “transitory,” which didn’t work out so well last time. Trump meanwhile, after a
few days of railing against federal judges and stoking a constitutional crisis, returned to making
tariff threats, promising “reciprocal” levies on at least some, unidentified
nations.
“We will go up and down as policy
uncertainty continues,” Michael Rosen, chief investment officer at Angeles
Investments, said. “Investor sentiment is going to be very volatile, and that
will be reflected in the market.”
What You Need to Know Today
Two apparently can play the on-again,
off-again tariff game. The European Union is delaying its
proposed 50% tariff on American whiskey until mid-April, aligning with broader countermeasures
against US steel and aluminum duties. The shift in the timing of the
levy, originally set to take effect April 1, allows for more talks with US
officials, a spokesperson for the European Commission said Thursday. The delay
also gives US distillers “a glimmer of hope” after last week scrambling to prepare for the EU’s tariffs.
More
Investors Prepare for $4.5 Trillion Triple Witching: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg
In other news, the BOE holds, the SNB folds.
Bank of England holds interest rates, warns global
trade uncertainty has intensified
Published Thu, Mar 20 2025 8:05 AM EDT
The Bank of England left interest rates
unchanged Thursday as the U.K. economy contends with uncertainty around global
trade and looming stagnation at home.
The widely anticipated decision keeps the
central bank’s benchmark interest rate at 4.5%.
In a statement, the central bank said that
its Monetary Policy Committee voted in favor of leaving rates unchanged with an
8-1 majority. One MPC member voted for a 25-basis-point reduction.
“Since the MPC’s previous meeting, global
trade policy uncertainty has intensified, and the United States has made a
range of tariff announcements, to which some governments have responded,” the
statement said.
“Other geopolitical uncertainties have
also increased and indicators of financial market volatility have risen
globally.”
The decision comes at a time marked by
prospective economic headwinds abroad and at home. At a global level, this
includes the frequent shifts, lack of clarity and conflict surrounding U.S.
President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs, along with their potential impact on
U.K. inflation and economic growth.
The U.K. economy has been showing signs of
weakening, contracting by 0.1% month-on-month in January.
The BOE in February halved its
2025 growth forecast for the U.K. to 0.75%.
At the time it also said it was expecting inflation to
temporarily rise to 3.7% in the third quarter of this year, as energy costs are
set to accelerate. U.K. inflation picked up sharply to a hotter-than-expected
to 3% in January, notably above
the central bank’s 2% target.
Thursday’s meeting comes just days before
U.K. government taxation changes come into force that have proven unpopular
with businesses, which say their rising tax burden could dent growth,
investment and jobs.
The U.K. Treasury’s “Spring Statement,”
during which British Chancellor Rachel Reeves will present an update on her
plans for the British economy, is also coming up on March 26. The finance
minister is under pressure to cut public spending, raise taxes further or to
bend the government’s self-imposed fiscal rules amid higher borrowing costs.
Bank of England
interest rate decision March 2025
Swiss National Bank makes quarter-point interest
rate cut, cites ‘low inflationary pressure’
Published Thu, Mar 20 2025 4:33 AM EDT
The Swiss National bank on Thursday
trimmed its key interest rate by a further 25 basis points as the country’s
economy grapples with depressed inflation.
“With today’s rate adjustment, the SNB is
ensuring that monetary conditions remain appropriate, given the low
inflationary pressure and the heightened downside risks to inflation,” the SNB
said in a statement.
The bank will continue to closely follow
the situation and make further adjustments to monetary policy if needed “to
ensure that inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability
over the medium term.”
The move takes the bank’s main rate to
0.25%. The cut was widely anticipated, with traders previously pricing in an
over 70% chance of a quarter-point reduction.
Addressing the decision to cut, the SNB
Chairman Martin Schlegel said that it was imperative to act swiftly rather than
waiting.
“In modern policy if you see a need to
act, you have to act early and decisively,” told CNBC’s Carolin Roth on
Thursday. “This is what [Swiss] National Bank does because waiting does not add
value. If you wait then you have to react even more in the future.”
It follows a 50-basis-point cut announced
by the central bank in December, which at the
time exceeded expectations. That also marked the fourth interest rate reduction
from the SNB since Switzerland became the first major economy to ease monetary
policy in March of last
year.
The rate decision comes as Swiss
inflation fell
to an almost four-year low of 0.3% on an annual basis in February, according to
official figures. The Federal Statistics Office cited cheaper imports as a key
factor contributing to the low inflation figure.
The SNB on Thursday said inflation had
developed as expected since its previous monetary policy assessment.
“The new conditional inflation forecast
has hardly changed since December. Without today’s rate cut, the forecast would
have been lower in the medium term,” the central bank added, saying that its
inflation forecast was within the range of price stability in the medium term.
The SNB expects inflation to average 0.4%
in 2025.
More
Swiss National Bank makes quarter-point interest rate cut, cites 'low inflationary pressure'
Gold is money. Everything else is credit.
J. P. Morgan
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
The
Fed just stoked fears of a dreaded economic stagflation scenario
March
19, 2025
The
Fed's interest
rate decision didn't
turn any heads on Wall Street, but its economic projections hint at a dire
economic scenario that investors have been stressing about in recent weeks.
At
the conclusion of its policy meeting on Wednesday, the central bank held its
benchmark rate steady at a range of 4.25% to 4.50%, in line with what markets
expected. However, its latest economic projections were a bit more jarring.
The
Fed is now eyeing lower economic growth and higher inflation for 2025, a
revision that's kicked up fears of stagflation — a scenario
that hasn't been seen in decades.
In
its Summary of Economic Projections report, Fed officials put real GDP growth
this year at 1.7%, down from the previous forecast of 2.1%. Policymakers also
lowered their growth expectations for 2026 and 2027, expecting real GDP to
increase by 1.8% in both years.
Personal
consumption expenditures inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, was
forecast to rise 2.7% this year, up from December's 2.5% projection. Median
inflation expectations for 2026 were also revised upward, with Fed officials
expecting prices to rise 2.2% next year, up from its most recent estimate of
2.1%.
Investors
are beginning to worry that stagflation could rear its head soon. About 71% of
fund managers said they expected stagflation to appear in the global economy
over the next 12 months, per a Bank of America survey published this week.
"As
growth prospects falter and inflation remains sticky, we should expect
investors to get more worried about stagflation," Jeffrey Roach, the chief
economist at LPL Financial, said in a note. "If the Fed shifts focus to
recession and growth fears, the committee could resume cutting rates to
stimulate a faltering economy but they are in a tight spot given the uncertain
impacts from a trade war."
Goldman
Sachs also mentioned the "stagflationary feel" in a note following
the meeting.
"Revisions
to FOMC members' projections had a somewhat 'stagflationary' feel with
forecasts for growth and inflation moving in opposite directions. For the time
being, the Fed is in wait and see mode, as it monitors whether the recent
growth slowdown develops into something more serious," Whitney Watson, the
co-chief investment officer of fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman
Sachs Asset Management, said.
Fears
of lower growth have been at the heart of the stock market's recent weakness. A
day after President Donald Trump refused to rule out a recession in an
interview, the market had its worst day in years. Slowing growth has also taken
the wind out of the
market's hottest trades.
More
The Fed just
stoked fears of a dreaded economic stagflation scenario
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
More on
yesterday’s BYD EV fast recharging “breakthrough.” Approx. 7 minutes. Check out the comments.
BYD's
"5 minute charging" is PURE FANTASY | MGUY Australia
BYD's "5
minute charging" is PURE FANTASY | MGUY Australia - YouTube
Approx. 3
minutes.
Understanding
EV Charging Stations: Watts, Amps, and Volts
Understanding EV Charging Stations: Watts,
Amps, and Volts
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Another weekend and what new DOGE mischievous misfortune
will team Trump/Musk think up for next week?
In tomorrow’s LIR, that massive LA fires, EV hazards cleanup.
Have a great weekend everyone.
Giving
debt relief to people that really need it, that's what foreclosure is.
J. P.
Morgan
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