Baltic Dry Index. 1642 -10 Brent Crude 73.25
Spot Gold 3021 US 2 Year Yield 3.96 -0.08
US Federal Debt. 36.643 trillion!!
If ignorance is bliss, why isn't the world happier?
Mark Twain
In the UK, tax rise day, as the inept, hard left, socialist government issues a second tax raising budget in less than a year.
In the USA, a dodgy relief rally in the greatly disconnected stock casinos from President Trump’s great uncertainty over tariffs, due to take effect on April 2nd.
From Asia, through Europe to the America’s, a massive shock is about to hit the global economy, friend as foe alike. Just don’t let on to the perma bulls gambling in the stock casinos.
Asia markets trade mostly higher after Wall Street
extends gains on hopes of softer Trump tariffs
Updated Wed, Mar 26 2025 1:34 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets traded higher
Wednesday, tracking Wall Street gains on expectations that U.S. President
Donald Trump’s tariffs could be softer than expected earlier.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.71%
to close at 7,999.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.03%,
while the Topix added 0.73%. South Korea’s Kospi climbed 1.17% while
the small-cap Kosdaq traded 0.53% higher.
Thailand’s SET Index rose 0.53% after Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra
survived a no-confidence vote.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.16%
while mainland China’s CSI 300 dipped 0.25%. The Hang Seng Tech index,
which tracks the 30 largest technology companies listed in
Hong Kong is 0.61% higher as it dances around the brink of correction.
According to reports from The Wall Street
Journal and Bloomberg, the White House’s planned tariffs set for April 2 are
expected to be narrow in scope. Trump also on Friday suggested some “flexibility”
for his reciprocal tariff plans for trading partners. However, U.S.
consumers’ confidence is taking a hit.
“As President Trump prepares to escalate
the trade war next week, U.S. consumers are increasingly inflation-weary, their
finances are more fragile, and they face higher risks in the labor market,”
Morning Consult wrote in a note, adding that U.S. consumers are expected to cut
spending across all income brackets.
U.S. stock futures were little changed
after the S&P 500 posted
a marginal gain, marking its third positive session in a row.
Overnight in the U.S., all three major
averages closed higher. The S&P
500 posted a slim gain, adding 0.16% to close at 5,776.65. The Nasdaq Composite gained
0.46% and ended at 18,271.86. The Dow Jones Industrial Average crept
higher by 4.18 points, or 0.01%, to settle at 42,587.50.
Asia-Pacific
markets live: Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225
Recession is coming before end of 2025, generally
‘pessimistic’ corporate CFOs say: CNBC survey
Published Tue, Mar 25 2025 7:33 AM EDT Updated
Tue, Mar 25 2025 10:28 AM EDT
The stock market experienced a relief
rally to start the week, and attempted to keep
the comeback going on Tuesday morning, as comments from the Trump economic
team over the weekend suggested a softer stance on tariffs. But within the
boardroom, hope is not likely to replace caution any time soon.
Many executives in the C-suite and across
the economy remain disturbed about the trade war outlook and a White House that
has given
every indication it is ideologically committed to a major change in
global economic policy. Shifting messages from President Trump that
continue to add
confusion to the tariff planning process haven’t helped.
In a word, the “pessimism” has crept back
in where the animal spirits had been after Trump’s election. That’s one way to
sum up the results from the latest CNBC CFO Council quarterly survey for Q1
2025. While some chief financial officers said Trump is doing what he
promised on the campaign trail, many CFOs said the way he is going about
delivering on his agenda is not what was expected.
“Too chaotic for business to navigate
effectively” was how one CFO respondent framed their view of Trump’s second
term to date.
“Extreme”; “Disruptive”; “Aggressive”; “A wild ride,” were some of the other
ways CFOs portrayed their current view.
It all adds up to a majority of CFOs (60%)
saying they expect a recession in the second half of the year – another 15% say
a recession will hit in 2026.
Just a quarter ago, when the recession
question in the quarterly survey was laid on the Fed rather than Trump – in the
Q4 2024 survey, we asked whether the central bank’s efforts to tame inflation
would lead to an economic slump – only 7% of CFOs said they thought that was on
the calendar for 2025.
In recent weeks, recession has become a
more popular default setting in the market, for the first time since the Fed
began aggressively raising interest rates to beat back runaway inflation in
March 2022. The odds of recession are running
as high as 50% at some financial firms, new “recession
watch” indicators are being created, and other recent CNBC surveying,
among money managers and economists, shows a
spike in recession fears.
The CFO Council survey is a sampling of
views from chief financial officers at large organizations across sectors of
the U.S. economy, with 20 respondents included the Q1 survey conducted between
March 10 and March 21.
U.S. trade policy is the primary reason
for the new economic downturn base case. It is now being cited as the top
external business risk by CFOs, at 30%, followed by the related risks:
inflation (25%) and consumer demand (20%), with the latest reading on consumer
confidence in income, business and job prospects hitting
a 12-year low.
More
Recession is coming, 'pessimistic' corporate CFOs say: CNBC survey
In other news, poor John Bull gets his pocket picked yet again.
UK consumer confidence is plummeting warns KPMG
25 March 2025
Three in five Brits believe the UK economy
is worsening, a new survey ran by KPMG has shown, as Chancellor Rachel
Reeves’
Spring Statement risks failing to lift people’s spirits.
Reeves is set to announce policies aimed
at swinging business confidence at her Spring
Statement on
Wednesday but
a new survey suggests consumers are increasingly downbeat about the economy.
Just under a half of respondents told One
Poll, which was commissioned by KPMG, that they are planning to cut back
spending on everyday items, as some 36 per cent of people said they are saving
more as a contingency.
The survey of 3,000 consumers also showed
that a growing number of people said they felt financially insecure.
One in 50 people said they are now
incurring debt to pay their bills.
The latest data showing a slump in
consumer confidence sends a final warning to the Chancellor ahead of her Spring
Statement.
The Chancellor is not expected to provide
some relief to consumers and make changes to taxes.
Meanwhile, her tax hikes, announced in
the Autumn
Budget,
are set to bite businesses in April.
Those taxes include increases to national
insurance contributions (NICs) and changes to inheritance tax
bands.
It means more people will have to pay
taxes on assets from next month as the government seeks to take in an extra
£40bn in tax receipts.
Businesses are also likely to pass on
costs to consumers, according to various surveys, with the Bank
of England predicting
inflation to hit a peak of 3.75 per cent this year.
Consumers are already responding to high
inflation of around three per cent in January as consumers have eaten out less
and bought fewer clothes, according to the survey.
Linda Ellet, KPMG’s head of consumer and
detail, said the research shows that most people think the economy is “heading
in the wrong direction”.
“This nervousness about the economy is
leading many, including some of those who are secure in their current personal
financial circumstances, to cut everyday spend, defer big ticket buying, and
save more.
“Cautious consumers are certainly
preparing for the potential impact on them from what they believe to be a
worsening economy.
Ellet also said the Chancellor should try
to rectify consumer confidence.
“This week’s Spring Statement needs to
give people confidence in the longer-term UK economic outlook,” she
added.
UK consumer
confidence is plummeting warns KPMG
Small businesses to offload Reeves’ tax hikes onto
customers
Tuesday 25 March 2025 10:57 am
Small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) have taken
steps to combat the Chancellor’s tax hikes as they brace for further changes in
Reeves’ Spring Statement.
Fresh research from Grant Thornton showed 71
per cent of SMEs have formed plans to offload rising employment costs onto
consumers – a 15 per cent increase from December.
Almost seven in ten businesses said they
planned to reduce or freeze hiring in the next six months as they battled
costs.
SMEs have suffered mounting pressure since
the Autumn Budget, with the government’s flurry of tax increases and employment
reforms hitting business confidence.
Rachel Reeves announced in the Budget that
employers’ national insurance contributions would rise by 1.2 per cent, and
upped the national minimum wage across all age rates.
Labour’s Employment Bill has created a
headache for SMEs, with the radical overhaul of worker’s rights sparking fears for
employers that they will be more easily subjected to lawsuits.
However, as SMEs prepare to battle the
fallout of the budget, optimism in the mid-market has experienced an uptick,
with 85 per cent of firms optimistic about their revenue growth over the next
six months.
Giles Mullins, head of core advisory at
Grant Thornton UK, said: “How long this confidence will last though remains to
be seen.
“As we head towards the Spring Statement,
the majority of mid-sized businesses are also expecting the Chancellor to
increase taxes on businesses again this year.”
This marks a stark difference from larger
firms, who had a ten point decrease in their optimism on the UK economy.
Mullins said larger businesses’ exposure
to the “increasingly turbulent international geopolitical environment” is
likely weighing upon their future outlook.
“After years of high inflation, interest
rate increases and economic and political turmoil, businesses of all sizes are
used to adapting to changing cost environments, putting plans in place to
protect their operations and reduce the impact to their bottom line and profit
growth.
“But mid-sized businesses may be able to
adapt more quickly to the shifting economic realities and more easily make
changes to mitigate the impact of these employment costs on their operations
than larger businesses, who may be faced with a larger wage bill,” he added.
Small businesses to offload Reeves' tax hikes onto customers
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
US
Consumer Sentiment Takes Another Dive
March
25, 2025 at 9:51 PM GMT
US
consumer confidence hit
the lowest level in four years as higher prices and President Donald
Trump’s escalating tariff war stoke concerns among everyday Americans
about the future of the economy—and re-emerging inflation.
The
Conference Board’s gauge of confidence decreased 7.2 points to 92.9
while the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a
reading of 94. A measure of expectations for the next six months
dropped nearly 10 points to 65.2, the lowest in 12 years, while a gauge
of present conditions declined more modestly. The dollar,
meanwhile, is headed
for its worst month in over a year.
Consumer
sentiment surveys from both the Conference Board and the University of
Michigan have
been dismal of late, as Trump’s protectionist rhetoric, global
retaliation and business uncertainty fuel
a resurgence in the rising prices the 78-year-old Republican promised
to end. Companies have
warned of rising costs and less demand, coinciding with economists’
warnings that the US could soon face
the curses of stagflation and recession.
Still,
as Fed Chair Jerome Powell reminded not too long ago, “hard data” suggests
the economy is still on a solid footing. Unemployment remains low and
manufacturing activity picked up in February. So the big question for
economists and policymakers now is if the weak sentiment trend translates into
observable behavior, like a marked pullback in spending.
US
Consumer Sentiment Takes Another Dive: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg
Wall
Street braces for Trump’s April 2 tariff deadline—it foresees 18% EU import
duties and a 43% chance of a U.S. recession
March
24, 2025
·
Analysts are closely watching April 2 for potential
new U.S. tariff announcements, as President Trump has already
imposed and threatened further tariffs on key trading partners, including the
EU, Canada, Mexico, and China. Market concerns about a possible recession are
rising, with Deutsche Bank reporting a 43% average expectation of a downturn,
while opinions within Trump's cabinet remain divided on the economic impact of
his trade policies.
Analysts have a
date metaphorically circled in the calendar a little over a week from now:
April 2, the day further tariff pledges are expected to be confirmed, and potentially
the moment when a universal tariff is announced.
Hikes have already
been threatened, rescinded, and then ultimately placed on key trading partners
like Canada and Mexico, with increases also placed on imports coming from
China.
Since
President Trump took office in late January, tariffs have also been placed on
goods coming out of the EU, such as steel, with further policy expected to be
announced.
Markets
have been chided by Deutsche Bank before for
failing to take the Oval Office at its word, but research out of the financial
giant now shows that analysts are waking up to the threat.
In
its March global markets survey—which spoke to 400 market makers across the
world—Deutsche Bank found sentiment about the extremity of Trump's tariff
regime is moving towards the upper end.
For
example, on a scale of zero to 10 (zero being no additional tariffs and 10
being an extreme regime) the December 2024 average was a five.
By
March this had risen to approximately six, with the average dragged up by more
analysts answering at the higher end of the scale.
The
note penned by research strategist Jim Reid adds: "However, markets are
expecting Europe to face a sustained U.S. tariff rate of 18% which feels higher
than what is priced in."
Having
asked analysts for their sustained rate, not the peak at which tariffs are
likely to start during negotiations, the majority of respondents (26%) said 10%
to 15%. However, a further 24% and 22% of correspondents chose 15% to 20% and
20% to 25% respectively.
It
comes after Trump adopted
a tougher stance on the EU when running for his second term. On the
campaign trail the Republican politician said he would make no exceptions for
one of America's closest trading partners, saying: “I’ll tell you what, the
European Union sounds so nice, so lovely, right? All the nice European little
countries that get together.”
Per Reuters, he added: “They
don’t take our cars. They don’t take our farm products. They sell millions and
millions of cars in the United States. No, no, no, they are going to have to
pay a big price.”
This
threat has been followed up since, with
Trump telling his cabinet in February that while he “loves the countries
of Europe,” the EU had been formed to “screw” the United States, saying:
“That’s the purpose of it. And they’ve done a good job of it.”
As
Reid points out, this higher-for-longer outlook amid tense geopolitics goes
beyond the market's current pricing strategy. As JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie
Dimon recently
pointed out,
tariffs can do “good stuff” that is only modestly inflationary by “0.1% or
0.2%.”
However the
man paid $39 million for his work in 2024 added that a universal 25%
tariff on all imports would be, in his view, “quite recessionary and
inflationary.”
More
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Home battery
demand soars amid Americas power grid struggles
24
March 2025
For
years, Americans have been blanketing their homes with scads of solar
panels. Now, they’re adding a growing number of batteries to store that
electricity and protect against blackouts.
Battery
storage in US homes surged by 64% in 2024 compared to the previous year,
outpacing increases in commercial and utility installations, according to new
data from Wood Mackenzie and the American Clean Power Association, a trade
group. These storage units are now in about half a million homes and
collectively hold 3,028 megawatt-hours of electricity.
“The
market has pretty much doubled in two years,” said Wood Mackenzie research
analyst Hanna Nuttall. “That’s a pretty significant rate of growth.”
Homeowners
are socking away power for a number of reasons, particularly to avoid
fluctuating electricity rates and blackouts. Those with solar panels,
meanwhile, can power their homes more cheaply by keeping the
electrons they generate instead of selling them back to the grid, which
typically pays lower rates than the retail price of electricity.
Solar
and storage go hand in hand and the vast majority of home batteries are wired
to an array of panels, Nuttal said.
It
also helps that costs for storage systems have plummeted, in part because
battery makers have switched to cheaper chemical recipes. Utilities, for
example, saw battery costs drop by 16% in the past year, according to Wood
Mackenzie. Prices for a residential solar array have fallen as well and are
near an all-time low.
Despite
the jump in home battery installations, the US trails Europe. In Germany and
Italy, over 70% of new home solar arrays are hitched to batteries and
many older systems are as well. In the US, meanwhile, there are now
almost 5.3 million homes with solar but only about 10% have battery
storage.
The US
battery boom is concentrated in sunny places — namely California and Texas.
However, it’s starting to spread in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic as
well.
“It’s
definitely the more technologically savvy people who are springing for
storage,” Nuttall said. “But in states where resiliency is a challenge,
that’s where we’re seeing more general adoption.”
Puerto
Rican homeowners, for example, have been buying battery storage to keep
the lights on during hurricane season.
More
Home battery
demand soars amid Americas power grid struggles
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
I saw a
startling sight today, a politician with his hands in his own pockets.
Mark
Twain
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