Baltic Dry Index. 1276 +47 Brent Crude 70.96
Spot Gold 2889 US 2 Year Yield 3.96 -0.03
US Federal Debt. 36.551 trillion!
Who do I call if I want to speak to Europe?
Henry Kissinger.
Tariff Tuesday has arrived, and stocks, oil and cryptocurrencies are reeling, although only stocks are affected by the latest tariff wars.
Will the 1930s now repeat in our world of unbacked fiat currencies and gargantuan national debts?
Probably, there a few direct winners from tariff wars, with most corporations and consumers losers to higher prices lowering living standards.
The falling crude oil price will partially help in the long run, and ending the disastrous war in the Ukraine will also help on the long run, but the trick is to get from here to that long run.
Below, tariff Tuesday.
Japan stocks drop nearly 2% to lead declines in
Asia as Trump tariffs dent sentiment
Updated Tue, Mar 4 2025 12:30 AM EST
Japanese stocks fell nearly 2% to lead
declines in Asia-Pacific markets, after U.S. President Donald Trump made it
clear that tariffs on
Mexico and Canada would go into effect as planned.
The benchmark Nikkei 225 index plunged
1.71%, while the broader Topix index lost 1.03%.
Japan’s employment rate for January came
in at 2.5%, slightly higher than Reuters’ estimates of 2.4%.
South Korea’s Kospi index was flat in
choppy trade, while the small-cap Kosdaq retreated 0.92%.
The country’s retail sales for
January fell 0.6% from the previous month. Revised estimates show a rise in the
0.2% rise in the metric in December.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was down 0.18%
in choppy trade.
Investors will be keeping a watch on
Chinese stocks ahead of the country’s annual
parliamentary gathering, known as the “Two Sessions.” Mainland China’s CSI
300 index dipped 0.17%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 ended the
day 0.58% lower at 8,198.10.
The country’s retail sales for January
rose 0.3% in line with Reuters estimates. Retail sales had declined 0.1%
in December.
Indian’s benchmark Nifty 50 fell 0.25%, while
the BSE Sensex index lost 0.21%.
Overnight in the U.S., all three major
indexes fell as Trump reiterated that 25% levies on imports from Mexico and
Canada would go into effect Tuesday stateside.
The S&P 500 fell 1.76% to end
the day at 5,849.72. This marks its worst day since December and brings its
year-to-date performance to a loss of about 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped
649.67 points, or 1.48%, to finish at 43,191.24. The Nasdaq Composite slid 2.64%
to close at 18,350.19, weighed
down by Nvidia’s
decline of more than 8%.
Asia
markets live updates: Stocks fall on Trump tariffs
CNBC Daily Open: Stocks tank as Trump says tariffs
will start Tuesday
Published Mon, Mar 3 2025 9:01 PM EST
“Tariffs” may be the most beautiful word
in the dictionary for U.S. President Donald Trump, but it is one that stokes
fear in investors. Risk-on assets such as stocks and cryptocurrency sank Monday
after Trump refused to pardon Canada and Mexico from a hefty 25% duty on all
goods imported from both countries.
In the markets, the S&P 500 fell the
most since Dec. 18 and is testing its 200-day moving average, generally seen as
a support level — meaning that if the index dips below that line, it could fall
even further. Bitcoin sank below $90,000, erasing in a flash its 10% gain from
Trump’s announcement on Sunday of the creation of a U.S. strategic crypto
reserve.
Across the Atlantic, however, European
leaders playing defense against Trump’s overtures seem to be boosting the
continent’s markets. The regional Stoxx 600 outperformed the S&P 500 for
February. And with defense stocks rising, Stoxx 600 had another leg-up on
Monday.
Still, as Trump’s tariff announcement came
after European markets closed, they could react badly on Tuesday when the
tariffs go into effect officially. Investors should brace themselves for more
potential volatility.
Trump: Tariffs on Canada, Mexico to
proceed
U.S.
President Donald Trump said the 25% tariffs on
Canada and Mexico will be implemented on Tuesday after a monthslong pause,
appearing unsatisfied by both countries’ efforts to fortify their borders.
There was “no room left for Mexico or for Canada” to negotiate, Trump said at a
White House event Monday, confirming that they “go into effect tomorrow.” An
additional 10% tariff on China — on top of the 10% already imposed in February
— will also kick in.
S&P now in the red in 2025
On
Monday, the S&P 500 fell 1.76%,
its worst day since December, and is now in the red in
2025.
The Dow Jones
Industrial Average lost
1.48% and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled
2.64%. Bitcoin slumped 12% to
around $82,000 as
of early Asia trading. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index
climbed 1.07%, bolstered by
defense stocks surging after regional leaders held security talks on
Sunday.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said she will reveal
more details on the “rearm Europe plan” Tuesday.
CNBC Daily Open:
Stocks tank as Trump says tariffs will start Tuesday
Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on US goods to start
Tuesday, PM Trudeau says
Published Mon, Mar 3 2025 9:35 PM EST
Canada will impose 25% tariffs on C$155
billion ($107 billion) worth of U.S. goods from Tuesday if U.S. President
Donald Trump’s administration follows through with its proposed tariffs on
Canadian goods, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Monday.
Canada will slap 25% tariffs on C$30
billion worth of U.S. goods from Tuesday, while tariffs on the remaining C$125
billion of products will come into effect in 21 days, Trudeau said in a
statement.
“Our tariffs will remain in place until
the U.S. trade action is withdrawn, and should U.S. tariffs not cease, we are
in active and ongoing discussions with provinces and territories to pursue
several non-tariff measures,” Trudeau added.
Canada's
retaliatory tariffs on US goods to start Tuesday: Trudeau
China retaliates with additional tariffs of up to
15% on some U.S. goods from March 10
Published Mon, Mar 3 2025 8:32 PM EST
BEIJING — China announced Tuesday it would
impose additional tariffs of up to 15% on some U.S. goods from March 10
and restrict exports to 15 U.S. companies.
The retaliatory measures from China’s
Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Commerce came just as additional U.S.
tariffs took effect on Chinese goods.
The additional Chinese tariffs largely
cover U.S. agricultural goods, including corn and soybeans, which will be
subject to new duties of 15% and 10%, respectively, according to the finance
ministry’s website.
Companies affected by the export controls
include Leidos and General Dynamics Land Systems, according to the commerce
ministry.
China’s relationship with the U.S. is
bound to see disagreements, but China will not accept pressuring or
threatening, Lou Qinjian, spokesperson for the third session of the 14th
National People’s Congress, told reporters Tuesday morning.
The congress is set to kick off an annual
meeting on Wednesday.
The White House has confirmed that new
duties of 10% on Chinese goods are set to take effect Tuesday, bringing the
total amount of new tariffs imposed in just about a month to 20%.
In a statement published earlier in the
day, China’s Ministry of Commerce said Beijing “firmly rejects” additional U.S. tariffs
on Chinese goods and will take countermeasures.
The duties will “hurt” U.S.-China trade
relations and China urges the U.S. to withdraw them, the ministry said in
Chinese, translated by CNBC. Beijing has previously warned of countermeasures,
but had yet to detail any as of Tuesday morning.
More
China rejects additional U.S. tariffs, vows to take countermeasures
China ‘firmly rejects’ additional U.S. tariffs,
says it will implement countermeasures
Published Mon, Mar 3 2025 8:32 PM EST
BEIJING — China “firmly rejects” additional
U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and will take countermeasures, the
Ministry of Commerce said in a statement Tuesday.
The duties will “hurt” U.S.-China trade
relations and China urges the U.S. to withdraw them, the ministry said in
Chinese, translated by CNBC. Beijing has previously warned of countermeasures,
but has yet to detail any.
After the first round of new U.S. tariffs
in February, China’s retaliatory measures included raising
duties on certain U.S. energy imports and putting two U.S. companies on an
unreliable entities list that could restrict their ability to do business in
the Asian country.
The White House has confirmed that new
duties of 10% on Chinese goods are set to take effect Tuesday, bringing the
total amount of new tariffs imposed in just about a month to 20%.
The average effective U.S. tariff rate on
Chinese goods is thus set to hit 33%, up from around 13% before U.S. President
Donald Trump began his latest term in January, according to estimates from
Nomura’s Chief China economist Ting Lu.
China’s state-backed Global Times reported
Monday, citing a source, that Beijing was considering
retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products.
U.S. exports of agricultural products such
as soybeans to China account for the largest share of U.S. goods exported to
China at 1.2%, or $22.3 billion, as of 2023, according to Allianz Research
analysis.
Oil and gas ranked second by share at 1%,
or $19.3 billion, the research showed. Pharmaceuticals ranked third at 0.8% or
$15.6 billion.
China on Tuesday is also kicking off an
annual parliamentary meeting known as the “Two Sessions.”
Policymakers are set Wednesday to reveal
the annual gross domestic product target and fiscal stimulus
plans for the year.
China rejects
additional U.S. tariffs, vows to take countermeasures
Bitcoin tumbles 9%, reversing most of the rally
from Trump’s crypto reserve announcement
Published Mon, Mar 3 2025 7:29 AM EST Updated
Mon, Mar 3 2025 4:05 PM EST
A bitcoin rally faded Monday as traders
grappled with concerns that proposed tariffs were on
track to take effect.
Concerns about the economic impact from
these levies overshadowed earlier excitement about President Donald Trump’s announcement of a
U.S. strategic crypto reserve. Bitcoin was last trading down 8% at
the $86,000 level, according to Coin Metrics. Ether is was down about 15% to
$2,100.
Meanwhile, stocks tied to cryptocurrencies
also reversed direction. Coinbase and Robinhood fell 4.6%
and 6.4%, respectively. Shares of MicroStrategy swung from a
14% rally when the market opened to trading down more than 1.8% Monday
afternoon.
Over the weekend, Trump announced the
creation of a strategic crypto reserve – a pivot from the “bitcoin
stockpile” he previously touted – that he said will include ether, XRP, Solana’s SOL token and Cardano’s ADA, in addition to bitcoin. Bitcoin rose as
high as $95,000, while the smaller coins rocketed double digits.
It was welcome news to investors, who felt
the pain last week as bitcoin fell under the key $90,000 level for the first
time in three months to, at one point, 25% below its January all-time high.
That break below support put it at risk of a bigger slide toward $70,000.
Losses in smaller, riskier coins have been even steeper.
It wasn’t exactly enough of a catalyst
though to pull bitcoin out of its consolidation phase. Investors have warned
that the flagship coin could be
defenseless against macro concerns absent a crypto-specific theme or
catalyst to look forward to.
“The effect of Trump’s [crypto reserve]
comment will not continue,” said Yuya Hasegawa, crypto market analyst at
Japanese bitcoin exchange Bitbank. “The price may go up because of other
developments this week, but Trump’s comment is already digested.”
More
Bitcoin tumbles
9%, reversing most of the rally from Trump's crypto reserve announcement
Oil price tumbles after Saudi Arabia and Russia
answer Trump’s call to ramp up supply
3 March 2025
Oil prices have tumbled after Opec+ agreed
to boost output under pressure from Donald Trump.
Brent crude dropped as much as 2.8pc on
Monday to $71.17 a barrel after the oil cartel, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia,
unexpectedly said it would increase production from April, initially by 138,000
barrels a day.
A plan to increase output had been delayed by more than
two years but Opec+ said it would now stage increases in output, hitting an
extra 2.2m barrels a day by 2026.
In a statement the group said: “This
gradual increase may be paused or reversed subject to market conditions”,
adding: “This flexibility will allow the group to continue to support oil
market stability.”.
It comes weeks after President Trump said he was “surprised” the oil cartel had not cut
prices. Last month, he used a speech to the World Economic Forum to urge Saudi
Arabia and other members to “bring down the cost of oil”, linking it to the war
in Ukraine.
He said: “Right now the price is high
enough that that war will continue. You gotta bring down the oil price. That
will end that war. You could end that war.”
The agreement of Opec+ also comes after Mr
Trump showed a more favourable poise towards Russia, a key member of the
broader coalition. The President has largely sided with Moscow’s narrative
about the causes and conduct of the war in Ukraine and pressured Kyiv to end
the war on terms favourable to the Kremlin.
Mr Trump has vowed to ramp up the US’s oil
and gas production to make the US a “manufacturing nation once again”.
He has promised to exploit America’s oil
reserves, boasting that the US has “the largest amount of oil and gas of any
country on earth… and we are going to use it. We’ll use it. We will bring
prices down, fill our strategic reserves up again right to the top, and export
American energy all over the world.”
However, economists have suggested that Mr
Trump’s policies on oil are contradictory, with lower oil prices undermining Mr
Trump’s attempt to encourage production at home.
More
Oil price tumbles after Saudi Arabia and Russia answer Trump’s call to ramp up supply
Finally, how not to recycle old EV batteries.
Approx. 7 minutes.
Two
Homes Just Exploded—The Hidden Danger in Battery Storage!
Two Homes Just Exploded—The Hidden Danger
in Battery Storage!
It's better to be an optimist who is sometimes wrong than a pessimist who is always right.
Mark Twain.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Weak
UK consumer spending is denting business mood, says CBI
3
March 2025
Business
activity across the UK private sector declined in the last three months, a survey
has found, as weak
consumer spending hits companies.
The
latest growth indicator produced by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI)
shows that UK private sector activity fell again in the three months to
February, at a faster rate than in the quarter to January.
All
sectors reported falling business volumes, the CBI says, pulling its growth
index down to -27% in February, from -23% a month earlier.
In
a worrying sign, private sector firms also expect another fall in activity over
the next three months, as
the economy struggles.
“There
are some glimmers of hope in our latest surveys,” said Alpesh Paleja, the CBI
deputy chief economist.
“Growth
expectations have become marginally less negative, driven by a predicted return
to growth in the manufacturing sector. But overall, the data still paints a
picture of a tough operating environment for businesses, with consumer-facing
sectors faring particularly badly.”
The
CBI hopes the government will usher in measures such as changes to the
apprenticeship levy, increased incentives for occupational health, or an
overhaul of business rates, to help lift business confidence.
A
separate survey from the accountancy network BDO found that medium-sized
companies were most concerned about barriers to international expansion and
rising workforce costs.
BDO
polled 500 business leaders at mid-sized companies with turnovers between £10m
and £300m, and found that almost half want better support from the government
to begin or continue exporting abroad. This includes broadening the access to
UK Export Finance support to the mid-market, new free trade agreements and
simpler customs rules to aid the export of products or services overseas.
In
January, the EU’s new trade chief said the
bloc could consider including the UK in a pan-European trade agreement, by letting it
join the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean convention. That would create “dynamic
alignment” between the UK and EU, potentially helping the UK’s food and farming
industry.
More
Weak UK consumer
spending is denting business mood, says CBI
Recession
Fears May Be Overblown - This Week's Data Could Prove It
Mar.
02, 2025 6:15 AM ET
- This week’s
economic data, including the ISM manufacturing report and February job
report, will be crucial amid recent market volatility and unexpected rate
declines.
- Analysts
expect the ISM manufacturing index to slightly dip but remain in
expansion, with a significant focus on the prices paid index potentially
rising sharply.
- February's
job report is anticipated to show job growth and stable unemployment, with
wage growth slowing, which could impact market sentiment and interest
rates.
- Despite
falling interest rates, the strong dollar suggests the decline may not
persist, and a potential rebound in Treasury rates is likely.
The
sharp drop in Treasury rates may have been an overreaction to recession fears.
This week’s data will put that narrative to the test. If the numbers align with
analysts' forecasts, rates are likely to rebound and ease concerns about an
economic slowdown.
ISM
Data
The
ISM manufacturing report is expected to come on Monday, and analysts estimate
that the index will fall to 50.5 from 50.9. But even a tick lower in this index
would be the second month of expansion in the manufacturing sector.
But
perhaps, more important, will be the prices paid column because last month saw
prices paid rise to 54.90 from 52.50. However, there is a lot of evidence from
regional Fed manufacturing surveys showing prices rose significantly in
February. The Philadelphia, Empire State, Kansas City, and Dallas Fed surveys
showed their respective prices paid indexes all rose above the highs seen in
the spring of 2024, which is suggestive of the ISM prices paid index rising
above 60 in February, which would be a massive jump from January.
----The
Job Report
Of
course, the February job report will have the most significant impact, and that
comes on Friday. As of February 28, analysts are forecasting 153,000 jobs to
have been created in February, up from 143,000 in January. Meanwhile, the
unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4%. Wage growth is
expected to increase by 0.3% m/m, down from a blistering 0.5% in January;
year-over-year wage growth is forecast to remain at 4.1%.
More
Recession Fears
May Be Overblown - This Week's Data Could Prove It | Seeking Alpha
Inflation
eases to 2.4% in Europe, supporting likely central bank rate cut
3
March 2025
Inflation in Europe eased to an
annual 2.4% in February, supporting the case for another interest rate cut from
the European Central
Bank but
leaving open how far the central bank will go in lowering borrowing costs for
an economy that's still struggling to show robust growth.
The
February figure for the 20 countries that use the euro currency was down from
2.5% in January as energy inflation dwindled and major economy France saw a rate
of only 0.9%, the European Union's statistical agency Eurostat reported Monday.
The
lower consumer price inflation figure supports the view that the ECB is
succeeding in its battle to get inflation back to its target of 2% and can
focus on supporting tepid growth. The bank's rate-setting council is expected
to cut its benchmark rate by a quarter point to 2.5% on Thursday. That rate
influences borrowing costs throughout the economy, and a cut will make it
easier to borrow money to buy a house or expand a factory.
A
rate cut Thursday had already been pencilled in by analysts but the newr figure
gives added support for a cut.
Growth
worries have come to the fore after the eurozone stagnated in the last three
months of 2024, as consumers still smarting from an outbreak of inflation
remained cautious in their spending habits. Business worried about possible new
tariffs on exports to the US under President Donald Trump. Political paralysis
in France, where no party has a majority in parliament to address an outsized
budget deficit, and the transition to a new government in Germany after the
Feb. 23 national election have also left businesses uncertain about the future.
Recent
surveys of purchasing managers by S&P Global suggested the eurozone economy
just barely grew in February.
The
big question at Thursday's interest rate meeting is whether bank President
Christine Lagarde will drop clues about how far the bank will go in cutting
rates. While inflation is well down from its peak of 10.6% in October, 2022,
some indicators of prices pressures remain elevated. Costs for services — a
broad category ranging from haircuts and hotel rooms to concert tickets and
medical care — remained at 3.7%
At
its last meeting on Jan. 30, the bank said the benchmark rate was still high
enough to restrict growth; dropping that mention on Thursday could be seen as a
signal that future cuts will be more limited.
More
Inflation eases to
2.4% in Europe, supporting likely central bank rate cut
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Thousands
regret COVID-19 vaccine, citing health concerns and pressure
Five
years after the COVID-19 pandemic began, thousands of Dutch citizens report regretting their decision to get
vaccinated.
Monday,
3 March 2025 - 11:10
Surveys
conducted by Panel Inzicht and media outlets affiliated with AD reveal that a
small but significant portion of the population believes they were misled,
pressured, or experienced adverse effects from the vaccine.
Two
months after receiving his second AstraZeneca dose, Martin van Nispen
contracted COVID-19. "It felt like a severe flu, but I clearly wasn’t
protected. In hindsight, I regret exposing myself to an experimental vaccine
under false pretenses," he said.
Wim
van de Laar from Panningen echoed similar sentiments. "I got vaccinated
because my household was extremely stressed about the pandemic. But I don’t
think I’d do it again. I prefer to let my body handle it naturally."
Others
reported more severe health complications. "Immediately after vaccination,
I developed physical issues that led to hospitalization. I’m still undergoing
treatment. Multiple doctors have said the vaccine had a negative impact on
me," said one respondent.
Another
participant stated, "I regret allowing the government to coerce me into
taking these shots despite my deep mistrust in their effectiveness."
Survey
findings
Panel
Inzicht’s survey of 1,000 Dutch citizens found that approximately 3 percent
regretted receiving one or more COVID-19 vaccinations. A larger online poll,
which attracted responses from 6,000 people across AD and regional news
websites, reported a higher percentage of respondents expressing
"prikspijt"—the Dutch term for vaccine regret. However, the surveys
also indicate that the vast majority of the population remains supportive of
vaccination.
Many
respondents cited health concerns as the reason for their regret. Others
pointed to social or governmental pressure, particularly during the
implementation of the "3G" policy, which restricted access to events
and venues for those who were not vaccinated, tested, or recovered from
COVID-19.
---- Despite the online fervor
surrounding vaccine regret, scientific studies indicate that serious vaccine
side effects remain rare. Research analyzing 99 million vaccinated individuals
worldwide found that only a small fraction experienced severe reactions such as
Guillain-Barré syndrome, heart inflammation, or blood clotting disorders.
Health experts emphasize that while side effects do occur, the number of lives
saved by vaccines far outweighs the risks.
Nevertheless,
many remain unconvinced. "I’ve had three COVID-19 shots and now suffer
from hearing loss, nerve pain, and worsened tinnitus. The right side of my face
is constantly in pain. My ENT specialist confirmed these symptoms," said
Monique, who declined to share her last name.
More
Thousands regret
COVID-19 vaccine, citing health concerns and pressure | NL Times
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Survey:
German consumers turned off by high cost of electric vehicles
2 March 2025
High prices are the main
reason German consumers are reluctant to switch to electric vehicles, a survey
commissioned by dpa and published on Sunday found.
The study, carried out by the
YouGov research institute, found that 47% of respondents cited excessive costs
as the main barrier to buying an electric car.
Other principal factors
included the limited range of battery-powered vehicles, an issue for 42% of
respondents, and the lack of charging stations, at 40%.
Only 30% of respondents were
deterred by high electricity prices, while 24% expressed reservations that the
technology has not yet been fully developed.
Sales of electric vehicles
plummeted 27% in Germany in 2024 after a government subsidy expired.
As the survey highlighted,
customers are unwilling to fork out huge sums to make the switch to
battery-powered models.
Only 12% of respondents said
they would be willing to pay more than €30,000 ($31,110) for an electric
vehicle.
More
Survey: German consumers turned off by high cost of electric vehicles
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
No
amount of evidence will ever persuade an idiot.
Mark
Twain.
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