Baltic
Dry Index. 1228 -34
Brent Crude 69.58
Spot Gold 2918 US 2 Year Yield 3.99 +0.03
US Federal Debt. 36.560 trillion!
“Those who don't know history are destined to repeat it.”
Edmund Burke.
In the stock casinos, a relief rally after erratic President Trump delayed by a month his tariff on autos.
In Europe, a front running ECB interest rate cut rally is expected.
In the real US and global economy, more signs of bad times directly ahead.
Asia-Pacific markets mostly higher after Trump
tariff concessions; Japanese 10-year bond yields jump
Updated Thu, Mar 6 2025 10:55 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets were mostly higher
Thursday, as Wall Street rose overnight after U.S. President Donald Trump
postponed tariffs on certain automakers.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rose 1%,
while the Topix climbed 1.3%. Yields of Japanese government bond yields have
surged, with the 10-year Japanese bond yield hitting its highest level since
2009, data from LSEG showed.
South Korea’s Kospi advanced 0.9% while
the small-cap Kosdaq fell 0.75%.
South Korea’s consumer inflation for February rose 2%
year on year, more than Reuters estimates of a 1.95% increase, and slower than
the 2.2% gain in January.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 2.47% at
the open while mainland China’s CSI 300 added 0.6% after Beijing on Wednesday
announced plans to raise its fiscal deficit to “around 4%” of GDP, a rare
increase that marks a meaningful shift in policy.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped
0.6%.
The White House on Wednesday announced a
one-month delay on tariffs for automakers whose vehicles comply with the United
States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt also
said that Trump was “open” to additional tariff exemptions beyond the pause on
auto levies.
Overnight in the U.S., the three major
averages closed higher. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average rebounded 485.60 points, or 1.14%, to finish
at 43,006.59, regaining ground after plunging more
than 1,300 points over the last two sessions. The S&P 500 added 1.12% to
5,842.63, while the Nasdaq
Composite climbed 1.46% to 18,552.73.
Asia-Pacific
markets live: Korea CPI, Trump auto tariff concessions in focus
European markets set for higher open ahead of
expected ECB rate cut
Updated Thu, Mar 6 2025 12:35 AM EST
European markets are heading for a higher
open on Thursday as investors look ahead to the latest monetary policy decision
of the European Central Bank.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected
to open 43 points higher at 8,779, Germany’s DAX up 75 points at 23,185,
France’s CAC 52
points higher at 8,249 and Italy’s FTSE MIB 307 points higher
at 38,905, according to data from IG.
The main focus for European markets on
Thursday is the ECB, with the central bank widely expected to cut its key
interest rate by 25 basis points, to 2.5%, amid an
easing in euro zone inflation in recent months.
Regional markets will be keeping an eye on
policymakers’ comments on the region’s economic and inflation outlook given the
potential for trade tariffs to be imposed on the EU by the Trump
administration.
Earnings are also set to come from Siemens Healthineers, Infineon, Merck, AF-KLM, Informa, ITV and Reckitt on Thursday, while
European leaders are meeting in Brussels for a special summit on defense as the
region tries to maintain its support for Ukraine, find common ground on how to
end the war and how to keep the U.S. on side.
European markets live updates: stocks, news and ECB rate cut decision
Trump administration plans to cut 80,000 employees
from Veterans Affairs, according to internal memo
Updated 10:45 PM GMT, March 5, 2025
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Department of
Veterans Affairs is planning a reorganization that includes cutting over 80,000
jobs from the sprawling agency that provides
health care and other services for millions of veterans, according to
an internal memo obtained Wednesday by The Associated Press.
The VA’s chief of staff, Christopher
Syrek, told top-level officials at the agency Tuesday that it had an objective
to cut enough employees to return to 2019 staffing levels of just under
400,000. That would require terminating tens of thousands of employees after
the VA expanded during the Biden administration, as well as to cover veterans
impacted by burn pits under the 2022 PACT Act.
The memo instructs top-level staff to prepare for an
agency-wide reorganization in August to “resize and tailor the workforce to the
mission and revised structure.” It also calls for agency officials to work with
the White House’s Department of Government Efficiency to “move out
aggressively, while taking a pragmatic and disciplined approach” to the Trump
administration’s goals. Government Executive first reported on the internal
memo.
More
Trump
administration plans to cut 80,000 employees from VA | AP News
In other worrying news.
The
US Employment Engine Is Beginning to Slow
March
5, 2025 at 11:33 PM GMT
Hiring
at US companies slowed
in February to the lowest pace since July, led by job cuts in the service
sector and in regions of the US hit by severe weather. Wednesday’s figures
add to other recent data pointing to a slowdown in the labor market.
Applications for unemployment benefits in the most recent period reached
the highest level this year amid a growing
number of job cuts at companies including federal contractors. The latter
may be related in part to President Donald Trump’s ongoing effort to fire
tens of thousands of federal workers and break government contracts.
“Policy
uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or a
slowdown in hiring last month,” Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP,
said in a statement. “Our data, combined with other recent indicators, suggests
a hiring hesitancy among employers as they assess the economic climate ahead.”
Meanwhile
on Wall Street, some are beginning to throw
around the dreaded R word. More on that below on Bloomberg’s Trumponomics. —David
E. Rovella
Although
Trump appeared to blink Tuesday amid the tariff-induced rubble in
equities markets (stocks looked better today), Canada doesn’t appear to be in
a forgiving mood. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau apparently isn’t open to
lifting Canada’s full package of retaliatory tariffs if Trump leaves any
tariffs on Canada in place. Trudeau’s government, a Canadian official said, is
cool to the idea of a “middle ground” settlement in Trump’s trade war, like the
one floated by US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. In
particular, the Canadian government’s position is that any scenario where it
has to fully rescind its retaliatory tariffs in return for a partial rollback
of American tariffs will be rejected. Trump also backpedaled on another part of
his Tuesday tariff volleys, exempting automakers from newly imposed levies on
Mexico and Canada for one month.
The
US Employment Engine Is Beginning to Slow: Evening Briefing Americas -
Bloomberg
Jack Daniel’s boss says Ontario removing U.S.
alcohol from shelves is ‘worse than tariffs’ as Trump threats go into effect
March 5, 2025
The Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO)
is removing alcohol from the U.S. from its shelves after the Trump
administration’s tariffs on Canada and Mexico went into
effect on Tuesday at midnight.
The president imposed tariffs of 25
percent on Canadian
goods, as well as a 10 percent tariff on energy.
Ontario put
in place a number of measures that it was close to enacting a few weeks ago,
when the Trump White House came
close to taking action on its tariff plans the first time.
Doug Ford, the premier of Ontario, ordered
the LCBO to remove U.S. alcohol from its shelves and catalogues. The regional
alcohol agency is believed to be the largest alcohol buyer in the world, according to Global News. Its website went offline
temporarily on Tuesday to remove the U.S. products.
Each year, Ontario imports $965 million of
alcohol and previously had 3,600 U.S. products from 36 states for sale.
“As the exclusive wholesaler, American
brands will no longer be available in the LCBO catalogue, meaning other
retailers, bars and restaurants in the province will no longer be able to
restock U.S. products,” Ford said Tuesday. “This is an enormous hit to the
American producers.”
The premier said the alcohol would be put
into storage and sold at a later time if the tariffs are scrapped.
This comes as the CEO of Brown Forman, the
manufacturer of Jack Daniel’s, said Wednesday that Canadian provinces removing
American booze from its shelves is “worse than a tariff.”
Lawson Whiting said it was a
“disproportionate response” to Trump’s tariffs.
"I mean, that's worse than a tariff,
because it's literally taking your sales away, (and) completely removing our
products from the shelves," said Whiting during a post-earnings call,
according to Reuters.
On Tuesday, Canada put
in place 25 percent tariffs on goods from the U.S., including booze. But
Whiting also said that Canadian sales only account for one percent of their
total sales. He added that the company would keep an eye on what happens
in Mexico.
Its annual report states that Mexican sales made up seven percent of its total
last year.
More
UK services job cuts intensify before employment
tax hike, PMI survey shows
5 March 2025
LONDON (Reuters) - British services firms
in February cut staff at the fastest pace since 2020 ahead of tax and
minimum-wage hikes that come into effect next month, an industry survey showed
on Wednesday.
The preliminary reading of the UK S&P
Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for this month rose marginally to
51.0 in February from 50.8 in January. That was fractionally lower than an
initial estimate of 51.1 and just above the 50 level that separates growth and
contraction.
But there was a sharp drop in the survey's
employment gauge, which sank to 43.9 from 45.1, its lowest since November 2020
and since the 2007-08 global financial crash if the COVID-19 pandemic period is
excluded.
"Less upbeat business expectations
and another month of sharply rising input prices led to net job shedding across
the service economy in February," Tim Moore, economics director at S&P
Global Market Intelligence, said.
"There has been a clear loss of
growth momentum since last autumn and the survey's forward-looking indicators
continue to suggest an elevated risk of stagflation on the horizon."
Input cost inflation slowed for the first
time since last July with the subindex at 65.7, but that remained close to
January's nine-month high of 66.4.
Prices charged by firms also rose at a
slightly slower pace than in January, when the services PMI's measure of
inflation hit a 13-month high.
But the pace of price growth remains a
worry for the Bank of England - which is monitoring service prices closely as
it gauges the strength of underlying inflation pressures and the appropriate
pace of further interest rate cuts.
Business confidence fell to a more than
two-year low, reflecting concerns among firms about the economy and the impact
of a 25 billion pound ($32 billion) rise in employers' social security
contributions.
The PMI also showed concerns about the
near-term economic outlook, and the impact of rising payroll costs contributed
to a decline in business confidence about the coming 12 months to its lowest in
more than two years.
Survey respondents also expected a decline
in demand, reflecting lower discretionary spending by consumers and cutbacks to
business investment plans.
The composite PMI - which combines the
services data with Monday's manufacturing survey - edged down to a two-month
low of 50.5, in line with a Reuters poll forecast and an earlier estimate.
UK services job
cuts intensify before employment tax hike, PMI survey shows
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Stagflation
fears bubble up as Trump tariffs take effect and the economy slows
Published
Tue, Mar 4 2025 2:40 PM ESTUpdated Tue, Mar 4 2025 4:58 PM EST
A
growth scare in the economy has accompanied worries over a resurgence in
inflation, in turn potentially rekindling an ugly condition that the U.S. has
not seen in 50 years.
Fears
over “stagflation” have come as President Donald Trump seems
determined to slap tariffs on virtually
anything that comes into the country at the same time that multiple indicators
are pointing to a pullback in activity.
That
dual threat of higher prices and slower growth is causing angst among
consumers, business leaders and policymakers, not to mention investors who have
been dumping
stocks and
scooping up bonds lately.
“Directionally,
it is stagflation,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
“It’s higher inflation and weaker economic growth that is the result of policy
— tariff policy and immigration policy.”
The
phenomenon, not seen since the dark days of hyperinflation and sagging growth
in the 1970s and early ’80s, has primarily manifested itself lately in “soft”
data such as sentiment surveys and supply manager indexes.
At
least among consumers, long-run inflation expectations are at their highest
level in almost 30 years while general sentiment is seeing multi-year
lows. Consumer spending
fell in
January by its most in nearly four years, even though income rose sharply,
according to a Commerce Department report Friday.
On
Monday, the Institute
for Supply Manufacturing’s survey of purchase managers showed that factory
activity barely expanded in February while new orders fell by the most in
nearly five years and prices jumped by the highest monthly margin in more than
a year.
Following
the ISM report, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow gauge
of rolling economic data downgraded its projection for first quarter economic
growth to an annualized decrease of 2.8%. If that holds up, it would be the
first negative growth number since the first quarter of 2022 and the worst
plunge since the Covid shutdown in early 2020.
“Inflation
expectations are up. People are nervous and uncertain about growth,” Zandi
said. “Directionally, we’re moving toward stagflation, but we’re not going to
get anywhere close to the stagflation we had in the ’70s and the ’80s because
the Fed won’t allow it.”
More
Stagflation fears
swirl as Trump tariffs take effect and economy slows
Target
sees near-term profit squeeze from tariffs, cautious spending
4
March 2025
(Reuters)
-Target on Tuesday forecast full-year comparable sales below estimates, and
said uncertainty around tariffs as well as consumer spending would weigh on
first-quarter profits.
The
Minneapolis-based retailer joined retail bellwether Walmart in raising caution
about its expectations for the year as sticky inflation and tariffs on imports
proposed and implemented by President Donald Trump temper demand, particularly
for the non-essential categories like home furnishings and electronics that
makes up more than two-thirds of Target's sales.
Target
expects comparable sales to be about flat in the year through January 2026,
compared with analysts' average estimate of 1.86% growth, according to data
compiled by LSEG. It expects earnings of $8.80 to $9.80 per share, largely
in-line with Wall Street's $9.31 estimate. Target said the annual forecast does
not consider any impact from tariffs.
Consumers,
however, continue to be stressed and at least some of the noise surrounding the
levies hit sales in February, a Target spokesperson said.
"The
company expects to see meaningful year-over-year profit pressure in its first
quarter," it said, attributing the impact to tariff uncertainty, as well
as weak demand for apparel and other discretionary products during February.
"We
will continue to monitor these trends and will remain appropriately cautious
with our expectations for the year ahead," Chief Financial Officer Jim Lee
said in a statement.
The
disappointing outlook may reflect the mood of shoppers who in January pulled
back spending far more than expected and showed that they are much more worried
about the impact of tariffs on their wallets.
The
disappointing outlook may reflect the mood of shoppers who in January pulled
back spending far more than expected and showed that they are much more worried
about the impact of tariffs on their wallets.
Target,
in particular, has also faced more backlash and boycotts by its patrons for
ending its diversity and inclusion (DEI) initiatives in January, with some
noting the company's reputation for inclusiveness had helped it attract a
younger, more diverse consumer base.
Foot
traffic at Target stores dropped 6.1% on average from the week of January 27
through February 23, according to data from Placer.ai. Target did not mention
any impact of ending its DEI initiatives in its outlook.
For
the holiday quarter, Target reported a 1.5% rise in comparable sales, topping
estimates of a 1.3% increase, according to data compiled by LSEG.
More
Target sees
near-term profit squeeze from tariffs, cautious spending
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
How Measles Vaccines Adverse Reactions Compare to COVID Vaccine
March 4, 2025
Skepticism around the
safety of vaccines has led to falling measles vaccine rates among children, but
data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows adverse reactions
have been reported far less for the measles vaccine than for the COVID-19
vaccine.
Why It Matters
The Texas Department of
State Health Services (DSHS) said that 159 cases of measles had been recorded in the state since January. At least one child
has died from the disease.
Measles was considered
eradicated in the U.S. in 2000, nearly 40 years after the first measles vaccine
was identified in 1963, but a growing anti-vaccine movement is raising concerns
about a resurgence of the virus.
The CDC said that 1 in 5
unvaccinated people in the U.S. will be hospitalized if they get measles. One
in 20 children with the disease will get pneumonia, which is the leading cause
of death from measles in young children. As many as 3 out of 1,000 children die after being infected with
measles.
---- "Anyone, including healthcare providers,
vaccine manufacturers, and the public, can submit reports to the system,"
the site said. "While very important in monitoring vaccine safety, VAERS
reports alone cannot be used to determine if a vaccine caused or contributed to
an adverse event or illness."
When it comes to the MMR
vaccine, the most common adverse reactions reported on VAERS were for minor
symptoms such as pain in the joints, chills, redness and swelling of the skin,
and headache. Reports citing death as a reaction occurred in 95 cases, and the
need for emergency care in two cases.
Since the COVID-19
vaccine was released in the U.S. in 2020, more than 1 million reports have been
submitted to VAERS, with more than 15,000 reports claiming death as a result of
the vaccine.
In the same time period,
less than 7,000 reports of adverse effects were made for MMR, with two reports
claiming death.
More
How Measles Vaccines Adverse Reactions Compare to COVID Vaccine
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
World’s first
battery storage system to provide full active and reactive power services comes
online
Blackhillock
in Scottland is not only Europe’s biggest operating battery storage project. It
is also the first one to provide a special set of grid stabilization services,
procured under the electricity system operator’s Pathfinder 2, while also
generating revenues from other critical services.
March
5, 2025
In
February 2023, construction began on 200 MW of a 300 MW/600 MWh battery energy
storage system (BESS) site in Blackhillock, Scotland. Project proponents wanted
it to be the world’s first transmission system-connected BESS to offer grid
stability. Rather than boost or replace wires, Blackhillock will provide full
active and reactive power services.
On
March 3, 2025, Zenobe, one of the UK’s leading owners and operators of
transmission system-connected grid-scale batteries or so-called grid boosters,
announced that Blackhillock began commercial operations as Europe’s largest
battery site.
The
Blackhillock site is launching in two phases. Phase 1 comprises of 200 MW which
went live on Monday and will be followed by a further 100 MW in 2026.
However,
what is even more impressive than the project size is the type of services it
will provide. Blackhillock was procured under Stability Pathfinder 2, the first
tender of its kind in the world to procure stability services, such as short
circuit levels (SCL) and inertia, from inverter-based resources.
Four
companies secured 10 contracts under the tender in April 2022, to address
insufficient SCL – the amount of current flowing during faults – across
Scotland. The winning bidders also committed to offer “green” inertia to
balance supply and demand after events such as trips at power stations, which
change system frequency. Five synchronous condensers and five battery sites
secured GBP 323 million worth of contracts.
At the
time, National Grid offered to pay up to EUR 6,500 ($6,852) per megavolt ampere
of short circuit power per year with the successful bids averaging around EUR
4,000/MVA. This created a strong revenue potential besides the already existing
reactive power contracts for battery-based energy storage.
Now,
Zenobe said that the site is expected to save consumers over GBP 170 million
($216 million) over the next 15 years.
The
GBP 8 million of savings from the Stability Pathfinder assumes that the
contract secured for the Blackhillock project will avoid the use of
combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) to provide inertia and SCL.
Another
GBP 164 million will come from providing balancing services and constraint
management to the grid and helping reduce price volatility, cycling the battery
two times a day with degradation over the lifetime considered.
Blackhillrock
deploys Wärtsilä’s Quantum energy storage system technology and GEMS Digital
Energy Platform with SMA grid forming inverters. EDF Wholesale Market Services
will be the Route to Market provider for the site, through its market leading
trading platform, Powershift, working hand in hand with Zenobē’s battery
optimization experts.
To
support the construction of phase one, 200MW/400MWh of Blackhillock, Zenobē
secured GBP 101m debt financing via a log-term debt facility from a club of
five banks.
More
.Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
As Milton Friedman once put it, if you’re spending your own money on yourself, you care about price and quality. If you’re spending someone else’s money on yourself, you only care about quality. If you’re spending your own money on someone else, you care only about price. And if you’re spending someone else’s money on someone else, you don’t care about either.
No comments:
Post a Comment