Friday, 7 March 2025

ECB Cuts Again. USA Jobs Day. Trump Tariffs Smash Stocks.

Baltic Dry Index. 1286 +58         Brent Crude 69.53

Spot Gold 2910             US 2 Year Yield 3.96  -0.03  

US Federal Debt. 36.564 trillion!

The people will believe what the media tells them they believe.

George Orwell.

Trump’s tariff flip-flops are bad for stocks priced to perfection in outer space.

But tariff uncertainty, Federal firings, tariff retaliations and a now unpredictable US foreign policy, are all bad for the global economy.

Unless things change, unlikely, a new global recession looms over 2025, only partially to be offset later in 2025 by increased warfare spending in Europe and China.

Below, a nervous opening, as US stock casinos await the latest US jobs report from the Bureau of Lying Labor Statistics. (With Trump in the White House rather than Biden will the BLS report accurately to try to undermine President Trump?)

Japan’s 30-year bond yield hits highest level since 2008; Nikkei leads Asia losses

Updated Fri, Mar 7 2025 11:06 PM EST

Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell on Friday, with yields on long-term Japanese government bonds hitting levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis.

The moves in Asia markets mirrored losses on Wall Street after U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff concessions failed to calm investors.

Traders were also worried by economic data from the U.S., which raised alarm that Trump’s policies could hinder the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book and the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing reading both indicated fear of rising input costs because of the tariffs.

Back in Asia, customs data showed China’s exports in the January to February period rose 2.3% in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, significantly undershooting expectations of a 5% increase in a Reuters poll.

That marked the slowest growth since April last year when exports increased by just 1.5% on year, according to LSEG data.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 led regional losses, down 2%, while the broad-based Topix fell 1.51%.

South Korea’s Kospi was 0.44% lower, with the small-cap Kosdaq down 0.43% in choppy trade.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 traded down 1.71%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was last seen up 0.56%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 index was down 0.14%.

Indian’s benchmark Nifty 50 began the day 0.12% higher, while the BSE Sensex index was flat.

Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes fell, with the Nasdaq Composite falling 2.61% to end in correction territory, which is when an index falls 10% from a recent high.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.99%, while the S&P 500 tumbled 1.78%.

Asia markets live: China trade, JGB yields, tariffs

Trump’s Tariff Flip-Flops Help Send Stocks Lower

March 6, 2025 at 10:32 PM GMT

On Thursday, Donald Trump signed a few more executive orders. Among the scores he’s churned out since taking office, these were unique, since they partially reversed orders from just two days ago. 

It was the latest backpedal by the White House in the face of furious fallout both at home and abroad to his 25% sanctions against Canada and Mexico. With markets plummeting, automakers yowling and Canada pounding its chest, Trump announced he would exempt some goods from both countries, but only for a month. If that sounds familiar, it’s because this is the second month-long delay Trump granted on his own tariffs.

Today’s announcement came after Trump spoke with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who has sought to negotiate with the 78-year-old president while Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau struck a more strident tone. The Trump administration did take pains to say its other threatened tariffs would move forward as planned in the coming weeks and months, but after weeks of threats, little follow through and now reversals, Wall Street has apparently decided the only safe thing to do is sell. The S&P 500 fell to a four-month low. Jordan Parker Erb and David E. Rovella

Trump’s Tariff Flip-Flops Help Send Stocks Down Again - Bloomberg

Stock futures rise after Thursday’s big sell-off; key jobs report looms: Live updates

Updated Fri, Mar 7 2025 8:51 PM EST

Stock futures were higher on Thursday evening as traders sought to look past U.S. trade policy worries that have rattled the market this week. They also anticipated a big payrolls report due Friday morning.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 96 points, or 0.2%. S&P 500 futures gained nearly 0.4%, while Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.5%.

The action follows a rocky session on Thursday, with the major averages going back into sell-off mode as the latest concessions on President Donald Trump’s tariff policies failed to calm investors. The blue-chip Dow lost more than 400 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell into correction territory, ending the session more than 10% off its high.

Stocks have been on a roller-coaster ride as Trump’s tariff policies have worried investors over future U.S. growth. While Trump said on Thursday that a swath of goods from Canada and Mexico that are covered by the North American trade agreement known as USMCA would be exempt from the announced duties until April 2, that wasn’t enough to spur a recovery rally similar to the one seen on Wednesday.

“Markets are all over the place trying to price tariff impacts, which is really hard to do when the goal post moves, disappears, and morphs by the second,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group.

This latest market rout put the three major averages on course for their worst week since September 2024. The S&P 500 is off 3.6% week to date, while the 30-stock Dow is down 2.9%. The Nasdaq is the underperformer of the period, down 4.1% so far this week.

February’s nonfarm payrolls report will be the next big catalyst on investors’ radar, giving markets further insight into the health of the economy. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast growth of 170,000 jobs, and expect the unemployment rate held steady at 4%.

Stock market today: Live updates

Cryptocurrencies decline as Trump’s U.S. bitcoin reserve plan falls short of expectations

Published Thu, Mar 6 2025 10:16 PM EST

Cryptocurrencies fell Thursday night after President Donald Trump signed an executive order creating a strategic bitcoin reserve for the United States and, separately, a “digital asset stockpile.”

The price of bitcoin was last lower by 3% at $87,586.86, according to Coin Metrics. Shortly after the news broke, it fell to as low as $84,688.13.

Earlier losses in other coins – specifically those that rallied at the beginning of the week after Trump said they would be included in the strategy – also eased. Ether was down 2%, trading at $2,184.08. XRP and Solana’s SOL token retreated 1% and 3%, respectively. Cardano’s ADA token tumbled 13%.

White House crypto and AI czar David Sacks detailed in a post on X that the bitcoin reserve will include bitcoin already owned by the U.S. government that it seized from past law enforcement actions – a move, he emphasized, that will “not cost taxpayers a dime.” The U.S. currently owns more than 198,000 bitcoins worth about $17 billion, according to Arkham.

The stockpile of other coins will include “digital assets other than bitcoin forfeited in criminal or civil proceedings.” Sacks said the government will not acquire additional assets for it “beyond those obtained through forfeiture proceedings.” Arkham data shows the U.S. government owns about 56 ether tokens worth almost $119 million. It does not list XRP or the Solana or Cardano tokens.

Investors initially dumped their coins at the notion of the U.S. having no immediate planned purchases of bitcoin, per the order, against the backdrop of major weakness in equities.

“It is good news, but not what the market wanted in the short term,” said Steven Lubka, head of private clients and family offices at Swan Bitcoin. “People were hoping for near-term buy pressure.”

More

Cryptocurrencies fall after Trump officially establishes U.S. bitcoin reserve

In other news.

China’s exports miss forecasts as U.S. tariffs hit, imports record sharpest decline since July 2023

Published Thu, Mar 6 2025 10:10 PM EST

China’s exports growth slowed more than expected at the start of the year while imports plunged, as lackluster domestic demand and U.S. tariffs challenge Beijing’s bid to bolster sluggish growth.

Exports in the January to February period rose 2.3% in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, data from the customs authority showed Friday, significantly undershooting expectations of a 5% increase in a Reuters poll.

That marked the slowest growth since April last year when exports increased by just 1.5% on year, according to LSEG data.

Imports surprised markets by declining 8.4% year-on-year in the first two months of 2025, the sharpest fall since July 2023, LESG data showed. Analysts had expected imports to expand 1% year-on-year.

The sharp contraction in imports showed the “last quarter’s stimulus-led pick-up in domestic demand has already partially reversed,” Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, said in a note.

Chinese exporters have been rushing to front-load outbound shipments since late last year on anticipation of more tariffs as U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the White House.

Trump’s first round of 10% tariff hikes on Chinese goods took effect on Feb 4., followed by another 10% tariff increase kicking in just one month later, taking the cumulative levies to 20%.

China has retaliated with additional tariffs on select U.S. goods, including energy and agricultural products, while restricting exports of certain critical minerals that the U.S. needs.

“As firms expect further mutual tariffs between the US and China, there is still some demand for front-loading,” said Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis. Due to a higher base last year, coupled with rising tariffs, he expects China’s foreign trade to remain under pressure in the coming months.

More

China’s exports grew 2.3% on year in Jan-Feb, well short of estimates

European Central Bank cuts rates again, says policy is becoming ‘meaningfully less restrictive’

Published Thu, Mar 6 2025 8:15 AM EST

The European Central Bank on Thursday cut interest rates by 25 basis points and updated the language in its decision to say monetary policy was becoming “meaningfully less restrictive.”

The cut brings the ECB’s deposit facility rate, its key rate, to 2.5% — a move that markets had widely priced in before the announcement.

The central bank’s six rate cuts over the past nine months have come amid lackluster economic growth in the region, and as the specter of tariffs on EU imports to the U.S. looms large.

“Monetary policy is becoming meaningfully less restrictive, as the interest rate cuts are making new borrowing less expensive for firms and households and loan growth is picking up,” the central bank said in a statement Thursday.

Euro zone headline inflation remains below the 3% mark, despite picking up in the last few months of 2024.

Data published earlier this week showed that inflation in the region eased to 2.4% in February, down from January’s reading but coming in slightly higher than expected. So-called core inflation — which strips out food, energy, alcohol and tobacco costs — as well as services inflation also dipped after proving sticky for several months.

The euro area’s seasonally adjusted gross domestic product, meanwhile, eked out a 0.1% increase in the fourth quarter, the latest reading from statistics agency Eurostat showed.

More

European Central Bank interest rate decision, March 2025

Walmart asks China suppliers for price cuts on Trump tariffs, Bloomberg News reports

March 6, 2025 10:14 AM GMT

March 6 (Reuters) - Walmart (WMT.N), opens new tab has asked some Chinese suppliers for major price cuts, with the U.S. retail giant's efforts to shift the burden of President Donald Trump's tariffs facing strong push back from firms in the Asian nation, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday.

Certain suppliers, including makers of kitchenware and clothing, have been asked to lower their prices by as much as 10% per round of tariffs, likely shouldering the full cost of Trump's duties, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter.

According to the report, few have accepted. Suppliers' margins are already razor thin due to Walmart procuring goods cheaply in order to maintain its competitive advantage.

The retailer initially requested price reductions from manufacturers when Trump's first round of tariffs on China took effect in early February, with the request for additional cuts coming later the same month when he threatened to double duties, the report said.

Walmart did not immediately respond to a Reuters' request for comment.

Last month, the U.S. retailer forecast sales and profit for the current year below expectations, citing the need for caution in navigating an uncertain geopolitical landscape cast by high interest rates and Trump's tariffs.

Walmart asks China suppliers for price cuts on Trump tariffs, Bloomberg News reports | Reuters

Tesla sales in Germany slump in February, in line with European markets

5 March 2025

(Reuters) - Tesla car sales in Germany fell by 76% in February, data showed on Wednesday, adding to the collapse in sales of Elon Musk's EV brand across Europe in what could be a loyalty test for the close ally of U.S. President Donald Trump.

Tesla sales were down 24% in the Netherlands, 42% in Sweden, 48% in both Norway and Denmark, 45% in France, 55% in Italy, 10% in Spain and 53% in Portugal, official data showed this week.

Outside Europe, Australia reported a 66% drop in Tesla registrations in the month, while the brand's worldwide sales of cars produced in China were down 49% due to intense pressure from Chinese rivals.

Britain bucked the trend, reporting a 21% jump in Tesla sales last month but that lagged a 42% overall rise in battery electric vehicles sales.

According to Germany's road traffic agency, Tesla sold 1,429 cars in Germany, a decline of 76%, an even bigger decline than the 60% drop in January. Overall, sales of electric vehicles rose 30.8% to 35,949 in Germany.

Musk's support of far-right parties in Europe, including for Germany's AfD that came second in last month's national elections, appears to have hurt Tesla's sales on the continent, which were down 45% in January from a year earlier.

Industry data showed new car sales in Britain fell 1% in February, despite growing demand for EVs which now account for one in four new cars sold.

Chinese automakers extended gains in the UK, with newcomer Chery selling 1,244 cars, more than BYD's 1,177.

Tesla sales in Germany slump in February, in line with European markets

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Reeves’s jobs tax becomes ‘ticking time bomb’

6 March 2025

Rachel Reeves has one month to scrap her “ticking time bomb” jobs tax or risk a slowdown in economic growth, the shadow chancellor has warned.

Labour’s plans to increase national insurance contributions (NICs) for employers will take effect on April 6, the first day of the new tax year.

Writing for The Telegraph, Mel Stride urged her to cancel the tax increase, which he said would “further decimate jobs, stunt economic growth, and escalate inflation” for the rest of the year.

Businesses are concerned the planned 1.2 per cent increase in employers’ NICs will impose hundreds of thousands of pounds in additional costs each year, driving up prices and causing job losses.

Under the plans, employers will pay a rate of 15 per cent of their employees’ wage in national insurance, up from 13.8 per cent.

At the same time, the threshold at which businesses must pay the tax will be lowered to £5,000, from £9,100, dragging many low-paid employees into the NICs bracket for the first time.

Hospitality bosses warned the policy will affect bar staff and waiters among the hardest of any sector and may lead to the closure of pubs.

The Office for Budget Responsibility has suggested the policy change will lead to a 2 per cent increase in payroll costs for businesses.

Mr Stride wrote: “This is not just another tax increase.

“It’s a ticking time bomb that threatens to further decimate jobs, stunt economic growth, and escalate inflation – making an already difficult economic situation far worse.”

He added: “A 1.2 per cent increase to employers’ National Insurance contributions might not sound a lot, but as an entrepreneur I can tell you it’s a significant sum that will see jobs cut, wages stagnate, investment plans shelved, prices rise and businesses fold.”

The Conservatives have offered to support the Government in cancelling the NICs increase if they bring it to a vote in the House of Commons.

The tax increase is expected to raise between £23.8 billion and £25.7 billion a year for the Treasury, financing many of Labour’s biggest spending pledges since taking office last year.

But Mr Stride said the money raised will be swallowed up by increased government borrowing costs.

“Thanks to the Chancellor’s decision to also ramp up borrowing, the money raised by her Jobs Tax will be swallowed up by higher spending on debt interest – not spent on the public’s priorities but poured down the drain,” he said.

More

Reeves’s jobs tax becomes ‘ticking time bomb’

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Today, something different but promising.

Scientists discover new part of the immune system

6 March 2025

A new part of the immune system has been discovered and it is a goldmine of potential antibiotics, scientists have said.

They've shown a part of the body known to recycle proteins has a secret mode that can spew out an arsenal of bacteria-killing chemicals.

The researchers in Israel say it transforms our understanding of how we are protected against infection.

And gives a new place to look for antibiotics to tackle the growing problem of superbugs that resist our current drugs.

The discovery centres on the proteasome – a tiny structure that is found in every cell of the body.

Its main role is to chop up old proteins into smaller chunks so they can be recycled to make new ones.

But a series of experiments, detailed in the journal Nature, external, shows the proteasome detects when a cell has been infected by bacteria.

It then changes structure and role. It starts transforming old proteins into weapons that can rip open the outer layer of bacteria to kill them.

Prof Yifat Merbl, from the Weizmann Institute of Science, told me: "This is really exciting, because we never knew that this was happening.

"We discovered a novel mechanism of immunity that is allowing us to have a defense against bacterial infection.

"It's happening throughout our body in all the cells, and generates a whole new class of potential natural antibiotics."

The research team went through a process they called "dumpster diving" to find these natural antibiotics.

They were tested on bacteria growing in the laboratory and on mice with pneumonia and sepsis. The researchers said they were getting results comparable to some established antibiotics.

And when the researchers took cells in the laboratory and disabled the proteasome they were far easier to infect with bacteria like Salmonella.

Prof Daniel Davis, the head of life sciences and an immunologist at Imperial College London, said the findings were "extremely provocative and very interesting" as they changed our understanding of how our body fights infection.

"What's really exciting about this, is it's a totally undiscovered process by which anti-germ molecules are made inside our cells, it feels profoundly important and surprising."

But he cautioned that turning this into a new source of antibiotics is an idea that "still needs to be tested" and that will take time.

More than a million people a year are estimated to die from infections that are resistant to drugs like antibiotics.

But despite the need, there has been a lack of research into developing new antibiotics to keep up with demand.

Against that bleak background, having somewhere new to look is a source of optimism for some scientists.

Dr Lindsey Edwards, a senior lecturer in microbiology at King's College London, told the BBC: "It's a potential goldmine for new antibiotics, that's quite exciting.

"In previous years it's been digging up soil [to find new antibiotics], it is wild that it's something we have within us, but comes down to having the technology to be able to detect these things."

She also says there could be fewer issues with developing them into drugs because they are already products of the human body so the "safety side of it might be a lot easier".

Scientists discover new part of the immune system - BBC News

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Scalable Production of Graphene Oxide from Carbon Fibers

5 March 2025

Researchers at KTH Royal Institute of Technology claim to have significantly advanced sustainable nanomaterial synthesis by creating a scalable and repeatable process for creating graphene oxide (GO) nanosheets from commercial carbon fibers, as published in the scientific journal Small.

Exfoliating carbon fibers with nitric acid produces high yields of one-atom-thick graphene oxide sheets with properties similar to commercial GO derived from mined graphite.

When its thin sheets stack together to form layers resembling graphite, graphene oxide—an extensively researched nanomaterial—can be utilized in automobile batteries. It is also helpful in electronic devices, water purification, and high-performance composites. However, because graphite varies in purity, synthesis from mined graphite necessitates harsh chemicals and frequently produces inconsistent materials.

Biomass is a Possible Source

According to Richard Olsson, a Professor of Polymeric Materials at KTH, carbon fibers made from polyacrylonitrile (PAN), a common polymer that oxidizes and graphitizes at high temperatures, were used to prove the concept. According to him, the process could be repeated using different raw materials, like biomass or forest industry byproducts.

Olsson points to the electric vehicle battery market as one that can benefit from the new technology.

The core of graphite battery functionality can be found in the layered graphene inside, which can be harvested from commercial carbon fibers using this method. The future of auto manufacturing will build on battery-based power, and the question is where the graphite will be sourced? They are going to need alternatives.

Richard Olsson, Professor, Polymeric Materials, KTH Royal Institute of Technology

Related Stories

The method transforms carbon fibers through electrochemical oxidation in a water and nitric acid bath. Similar to how oxidation manifests as rust on an automobile, the bath functions as a conductor, and when an electric current passes through carbon fiber, the material starts to lose electrons, changing the surface. In this instance, the transformation results in the removal of layers of nanoscale graphene oxide from the surface of the carbon fibers.

The researchers found that a mere 5 % nitric acid was ideal for forming these minuscule nanosheets, which had a uniform thickness of roughly 0.9 nm and ranged in size from 0.1 to 1 µm. Interestingly, unlike GO synthesized from natural, mined graphite, which typically takes the form of polygons, the GO nanosheets created in this manner emerged in circular and elliptical shapes.

High Yield and Quality

The new method yields 200 mg of GO per gram of carbon fiber, which is higher than the current synthetic methods. Because of its effective conversion rate, it can be produced on a large scale, solving a significant problem in the synthesis of nanomaterials.

The researchers used various sophisticated techniques to analyze and measure the material's structure and properties to ensure the nanosheets fulfilled quality standards.

The study also investigated two effective methods for removing protective polymer coatings from commercial carbon fibers prior to oxidation: heating at 580 °C for two hours and shock-heating to 1200 °C for three seconds. The study showed that an important factor in the electrochemical exfoliation process is the electrical conduction within the fibers.

Investigating biobased sources for carbon fibers and learning more about the process are among the researchers' next steps, according to Olsson.

Journal Reference:

Español, A., et al. (2025) Making Synthetic 2D Graphene Oxide Nanosheets by Electrochemical Oxidation of Commercial Carbon Fibres. Smalldoi.org/10.1002/smll.202408972

KTH Royal Institute of Technology

Scalable Production of Graphene Oxide from Carbon Fibers

.Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Another weekend and what mischief can Team Trump/Musk think up this weekend?

In tomorrow’s music section, a 1920s style jazz band that I last heard when living in the 1980s in Manhattan. A real treat to be 40+ years younger again. Have a great weekend everyone.

The more I learn about people, the more I like my dog.

Mark Twain.


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