Wednesday, 5 March 2025

Trump “A Little Disruption”. More China Debt. Ukraine Peace?

Baltic Dry Index. 1262 -14         Brent Crude 70.80

Spot Gold 2918              US 2 Year Yield 3.96  unch.  

US Federal Debt. 36.556 trillion!

Corporation: An ingenious device for obtaining profit without individual responsibility.

Ambrose Bierce.

With President Trump’s speech to Congress leading mainstream media this morning, I will only comment on wishing all involved in trying to end the war in Ukraine, success.

In the Asian stock casinos, the focus is on the new economic rescue plan for China.

In North American stock casinos, the likely focus today will be on President Trump’s speech and whether only one day in to the new Trump tariffs, President Trump is about to U-turn on their severity.

In the European stock casinos, the focus will likely stay on the increased round of defence spending, and the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the ECB tomorrow. In the UK casinos, outrage at VP J. D. Vance’s slur on the British Army, though this won’t affect the gambling.

Asia-Pacific markets mostly higher as investors assess China GDP and inflation targets

Updated Wed, Mar 5 2025 11:53 PM EST

Asia-Pacific markets were mostly higher Wednesday as investors assessed China growth and inflation targets amid U.S. tariffs and escalating global trade tensions weighing down sentiment.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.77%. Australia’s economy expanded 1.3% year on year in the fourth quarter, beating expectations of 1.2% from economists polled by Reuters.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 0.37% while the Topix climbed 0.38%. South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.11% while the small-cap Kosdaq advanced 0.91%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 1.65%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 rose 0.32%.

Investors are also focused on China’s “Two Sessions,” an annual parliamentary gathering, with the meeting of its top legislature, the National People’s Congress, kickstarting Wednesday.

China on Wednesday set its GDP growth target for 2025 at around 5%. The country has also lowered its inflation expectations to “around 2%.”

Trump’s 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada took effect Tuesday. The president also imposed an additional 10% duty on Chinese goods, bringing the total new tariffs on China to 20%.

Overnight in the U.S., the three major averages closed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled for a second day, dropping 670.25 points, or 1.55% and ended the session at 42,520.99. The S&P 500 dropped 1.22% to close at 5,778.15 after notching its worst day of the year in the prior session. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.35% and finished at 18,285.16.

Asia markets live: China NPC, Australia GDP

Stock futures rise after Commerce Secretary Lutnick suggests possible compromise on Trump tariffs: Live updates

Updated Wed, Mar 5 2025 8:20 PM EST

U.S. stock futures rose Tuesday night after all three major averages suffered sharp losses for a second session.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 206 points, or 0.5%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures each added about 0.6%.

The blue-chip Dow tumbled 670.25 points, or 1.55%, to end Tuesday’s regular trading session. The S&P 500 dropped 1.22%, and the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.35%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq had dipped more than 2% at its lowest point and came within striking distance of correction territory, a term that refers to an index falling 10% from a recent peak.

U.S. stocks slid for their second day in a row after President Donald Trump’s new 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico officially took effect on Tuesday. In response, Canada, Mexico and China — with China hit by an additional 10% duty — have prepared retaliatory measures.

However, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on “Fox Business” on Tuesday afternoon that the U.S. might meet Canada and Mexico somewhere “in the middle” to “work something out” on tariffs.

“The thing that we have emphasized over and over again is that Trump introduces uncertainty. We now are at a point where a single tweet or a single release of information can significantly change the interpretation of what markets look like,” said Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management.

Green added that a mounting trade war, exacerbated by retaliatory tariffs, could place a damper on the economy going forward, although it is still uncertain what the long-term prospects will look like.

“You almost end up in a forced savings regime, which in turn negatively affects employment, negatively affects wealth, and that’s what markets are trying to price right now. We genuinely don’t actually know,” he told CNBC.

New economic releases on Wednesday morning that could shed light on the state of the U.S. economy include the ADP private payrolls report for February, as well as the purchasing managers’ index for last month.

Companies due to report quarterly earnings on Wednesday include Thor IndustriesAbercrombie & FitchCampbell’s and Brown-Forman

Stock market today: Live updates

Trump could scale back Canada, Mexico tariffs Wednesday, Lutnick says

Published Tue, Mar 4 2025 5:18 PM EST

President Donald Trump will “probably” announce tariff compromise deals with Canada and Mexico soon, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Tuesday.

The potential agreements would likely involve scaling back at least part of Trump’s brand new 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, he added.

Lutnick’s comments came minutes after the U.S. stock market limped to a close for a second day of sharp declines, spurred at least in part by investors’ fears that Trump’s aggressive policies will ignite a crippling trade war.

After his remarks, U.S. stock futures tied to all three major averages rose.

The compromises with Canada and Mexico will likely be revealed as soon as Wednesday, Lutnick said on “Fox Business.”

While the Cabinet secretary did not specify what Trump would agree to, he suggested the U.S. president would be willing to meet Canada and Mexico “in the middle.” He also appeared to foreclose on the possibility that Trump would lift the tariffs entirely.

The Trump administration on Tuesday reimposed sweeping 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports after putting them on pause for a month.

Trump, who has held up tariffs as an all-powerful negotiating tool, based the policy on allegations that the neighboring countries were failing to stem the flow of drugs and crime into the U.S.

“Both the Mexicans and the Canadians are on the phone with me all day today, trying to show that they’ll do better,” Lutnick said Tuesday afternoon.

“And the President is listening because, you know, he’s very, very fair and very reasonable. So I think he’s going to work something out with them,” he said.

Lutnick described a deal in which Canada and Mexico agree to “do more,” at which point Trump would “meet you in the middle some way.”

“We’re going to probably be announcing that tomorrow,” he said.

Lutnick said the announcement would not be another pause.

Trump could scale back Canada, Mexico tariffs Wednesday, Lutnick says

In other news.

China raises budget deficit target to levels not seen since at least 2010 to shore up growth

Published Tue, Mar 4 2025 7:28 PM EST

BEIJING — China on Wednesday announced plans to raise its fiscal deficit to “around 4%” of gross domestic product, a rare increase that marks a meaningful shift in policy.

The target was confirmed in an official government report for review in parliament on Wednesday.

The new deficit plan, which is up from 3% last year, comes amid an escalating trade war with U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration.

An increase to 4% of GDP had been widely expected. It marks the highest fiscal deficit on record going back to 2010, according to data accessed via Wind Information. The prior high was 3.6% in 2020, the data showed.

In October, Chinese Minister of Finance Lan Fo’an said the space for a deficit increase is “rather large.”

China in November had announced a support package of 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) over five years — primarily to tackle local government debt problems.

The country’s real estate market slump has cut into a significant source of revenue for local governments, many of which struggled financially even before needing to spend on Covid-19 measures. Meanwhile, lackluster consumption and slow growth overall have multiplied calls for more fiscal stimulus.

China was also expected to triple the quota for special sovereign bond sales to 3 trillion yuan ($410 billion) this year, from 1 trillion yuan in 2024, and increase the year’s quota for special local government bond issuance to 4.5 trillion yuan from 3.9 trillion yuan previously, according to estimates from Macquarie’s Chief China Economist Larry Hu.

China targets fiscal budget deficit at around 4% of GDP

China to raise defense spending by 7.2% in 2025 to ‘firmly safeguard’ national security

Published Tue, Mar 4 2025 11:02 PM EST

China on Wednesday increased its defense spending by 7.2% this year, the same growth rate as in the prior two years, as Beijing seeks to “firmly safeguard” its national security.

In an official government report due to be released in parliament, China proposed a national defense budget of 1.78 trillion yuan ($244.99 billion) for the 2025 fiscal year.

The increased defense budget, well above China’s economic growth target for this year of roughly 5%, comes as Western governments seek to ratchet up military spending to bolster their own security.

The European Union announced Tuesday that it could mobilize as much as 800 billion euros ($841 billion) to shore up support for Ukraine amid Russia’s full-scale invasion. The move followed reports that the U.S. had abruptly paused military aid to Ukraine.

China budgeted a 7.2% increase in defense spending to 1.67 trillion yuan last year, the same growth rate as in the prior year. Beijing had increased spending by 7.1% in 2022 and 6.8% in 2021, according to official data.

When asked on Tuesday about China’s defense spending, Lou Qinjian, spokesperson for the third session of the 14th National People’s Congress, told reporters that “peace needs to be safeguarded with strength.”

That’s according to an official translation of his Mandarin-language remarks.

China’s defense expenditure as share of GDP has been held under 1.5 percent for many years, Lou said, adding that this rate of spending is lower than the global average.

China remains the world’s second largest military spender behind the U.S. which has set the military budget for 2025 at $850 billion.

Separately, expenditures earmarked for public security this year was raised by 7.3%, the official statement showed, a sharp increase compared with the 1.4% rise last year.

China to raise defense spending by 7.2% in 2025

A $20 Billion Slush Fund—Paid by You to Progressive Nonprofits

It appears the billions didn’t revitalize anything—except the coffers of a range of environmental nonprofits associated with former Obama and Biden administration officials.

03.04.25

The Department of Justice is investigating the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, a $27 billion program that was part of Joe Biden’s $740 billion Inflation Reduction Act. Created in the spring of 2023, and managed by the Environmental Protection Agency, the fund was supposed to be a “first-of-its-kind” program to address the climate crisis while revitalizing communities that it considered “historically left behind.”

But it appears little of the $27 billion revitalized anything—except the coffers of a range of environmental nonprofits associated with former Obama and Biden administration officials.

“The Biden administration used so-called ‘climate equity’ to justify handouts of billions of dollars to their far-left friends,” Lee Zeldin, the Trump administration’s new EPA administrator, told The Free Press. “It is my utmost priority to get a handle on every dollar that went out the door in this scheme and once again restore oversight and accountability over these funds. This rush job operation is riddled with conflicts of interest and corruption.”

More

A $20 Billion Slush Fund—Paid by You to Progressive NGOs

Finally, why President Trump is correct, and the 21st century Ukraine drone war must end. Sadly, I have held off this subject far too long.

Russian Troops Ambushed Ukrainian HUGE Grad MLRS Convoy!

Russian Special Forces Destroy Ukrainian Grad MLRS Convoy!

Warfare: Drones now do most of the killing in the war, causing about 70 percent of deaths and injuries, commanders say.

NY Times March 3, 2025.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

God alone knows the future, but only an historian can alter the past.

Ambrose Bierce.

Warren Buffett: Tariffs are ‘an act of war’

Published 12:55 PM EST, Mon March 3, 2025

Tariffs might be President Donald Trump’s favorite word. To legendary investor Warren Buffett, there is less to be excited about.

“Tariffs are actually — we’ve had a lot of experience with them — they’re an act of war, to some degree,” Buffett said in an interview with CBS that aired on Sunday.

The Berkshire Hathaway CEO and billionaire investor said tariffs over time serve as a tax on goods and could raise prices for consumers.

“The Tooth Fairy doesn’t pay ‘em!” Buffett said with a laugh.

Tariffs disrupt trade between countries by raising taxes on imported goods, and those new costs are often passed on to consumers through higher prices. Tariffs are considered by many economists a political cudgel — sometimes used in a trade war — and not an efficient framework for international trade.

Buffett offered his thoughts in a rare sit-down interview, with CBS News’ Norah O’Donnell. The segment focused on the late Katharine Graham, former publisher of the Washington Post and a friend of Buffett’s, though he answered a few questions about the economy.

The Oracle of Omaha said it’s critical to ask, “And then what?” when thinking about the implications of tariffs and who will bear the cost.

“You always have to ask that question in economics: Always say, ‘And then what?’” Buffett said.

----In an interview on The Situation Room on Monday with CNN’s Pamela Brown, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick dismissed Buffett’s comments about tariffs as “silly.”

Lutnick said tariffs could replace the need for the Internal Revenue Service, which he incorrectly said was created when the US entered World War I.

“The United States of America before 1913 only had tariffs, and then we created — when we entered World War I, we all had to pitch in, and we created, of course, the brilliantly named Internal Revenue Service,” Lutnick said.

In fact, what became known as the IRS was initially created in 1862, during the Civil War. The federal income tax, collected by the IRS, was established in 1913 by the ratification of 16th amendment, four years before the US entered World War I. Since then, federal income tax has become the government’s largest source of revenue.

It is true the US government used to rely on revenue from tariffs before the federal income tax was created, but the US economy of the 2020s — a global powerhouse deeply intertwined in international trade — has evolved tremendously in scope and complexity since the US economy of the late 1800s and early 1900s.

In short, the proposal to abolish the IRS and supplement government revenue with tariffs is financially unrealistic and riddled with issues.

While Buffett didn’t elaborate on his comment about tariffs being an act of war, tariffs have long been associated with protectionist trade policy that has influenced isolationist foreign policy. In the 1930s, after the United States hiked tariffs as part of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 (which exacerbated the Great Depression), the French media reportedly called it a declaration of (economic) war.

More

Warren Buffett: Tariffs are ‘an act of war’ | CNN Business

Target warns February sales were soft, adding to concerns about consumer health

Published Tue, Mar 4 2025 12:01 AM EST

Target on Tuesday warned that it expects a “meaningful” drop in first-quarter profit compared to the year-ago period as it contends with “ongoing consumer uncertainty,” soft sales in February and concerns around tariffs. 

The first three months of the year tend to be slow for retailers because consumers typically pull back after the holiday shopping season. But Target’s tepid guidance comes after Walmart and E.l.f. Beauty raised concerns last month about a slower than usual start to the year.

Coupling those weak forecasts with a sharper-than-expected decline in consumer spending in January and the biggest drop in consumer confidence since 2021 in February, Target’s guidance is the latest warning sign about the health of the consumer and the U.S. economy.

Plenty of Target’s troubles have been self-inflicted in recent years, but as a big-box retailer that caters to large swaths of the population, its performance can offer insight into spending patterns ahead, especially when other companies have made similar comments. 

In a statement, Target’s finance chief Jim Lee said February sales were “soft” and “declining consumer confidence” hurt discretionary sales. He also blamed “uncharacteristically cold weather,” saying it affected apparel sales. 

“We expect to see a moderation in this trend as apparel sales respond to warmer weather around the country, and consumers turn to Target for upcoming seasonal moments such as the Easter holiday,” said Lee. “We will continue to monitor these trends and will remain appropriately cautious with our expectations for the year ahead.”

Beyond its outlook, Target reported fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and revenue that beat Wall Street’s expectations.

Here’s how Target did compared with what Wall Street was anticipating, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

---- Target’s net income for the three-month period that ended Feb. 1 was $1.10 billion, or $2.41 per share, compared with $1.38 billion, or $2.98 per share, a year earlier.

Sales dropped to $30.92 billion, down about 3% from $31.92 billion a year earlier. In the year-ago period, Target benefited from an extra week, which has skewed year-over-year comparisons.

More

Target (TGT) Q4 2024 earnings

Finally, sanity returns to Aberdeen, (the foolish company, not the “Granite City” on the North Sea, which always remained sane.)

Abrdn changes name back to Aberdeen and swings back to profit

Tuesday 04 March 2025 8:36 am

Abrdn has rounded out a bumper year with a return to profit and a total revamp of its brand.

The company announced it will change its name back to Aberdeen as it begins the search for its next chairman, who will succeed Sir Douglas Flint.

Group chief executive Jason Windsor said: “We are changing our name to Aberdeen group plc.

“This is a pragmatic decision marking a new phase for the organisation, as we focus on delivering for our customers, people and shareholders.”

This marks the second rebrand for the firm, after former boss Stephen Bird, who stepped down in May 2024, led the change to Abrdn in 2021.

After removing its vowels, the company became a target for mockery, and the firm made accusations of “corporate bullying.

Windsor said the firm does not intend to change its stock exchange ticker, which will remain ‘ABDN. ‘

However, the company will begin to use ‘Aberdeen’ as its principal trading identity.

More

Abrdn changes name back to Aberdeen and swings back to profit

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Iowa lawmakers advance bill that would ban COVID-19 vaccines

The bill would outlaw the administration of any mRNA vaccines in Iowa.

March 3, 2025Share this:

Iowa lawmakers advanced a bill Monday banning the administration of mRNA vaccines.

The bill, Senate File 360, would outlaw any person in the state of Iowa from administering an mRNA and would impose penalties of up to $500 for anyone found guilty of doing so.

According to MedlinePlus, an official website of the U.S. government, mRNA vaccines are a type of vaccine that use a synthetic piece of genetic code, called mRNA, to produce a specific protein.

COVID-19 vaccines, an example of an mRNA vaccine, work by injecting a COVID-19 protein into the vaccine, which the body’s immune system then recognizes and mounts a response against, helping to protect against infection.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services, has previously sought to revoke the authorization of all COVID-19 vaccines, claiming the risks of the vaccines far outweigh the benefits.

Several doctors spoke in support of the bill, citing the danger of COVID-19 vaccines and the unknown, long-term impacts.

Dr. Ben Tapper, an anti-vaccine chiropractor from Nebraska, said he has studied mRNA vaccines for several years and said there is not enough research yet about the long-term effects, making it dangerous for the COVID-19 vaccine to stay on the market.

“We have literally zero studies to show the long-term effects. Even the manufacturers admit they couldn’t study these vaccines for years before the release,” Tapper said. “Shouldn’t that be enough to pull this from the market?”

According to AP News, there is ample evidence that mRNA vaccines, including those that prevent COVID-19, do not cause harm and are effective.

As of 2022, only .0027 percent of those who had received COVID-19 vaccines resulted in preliminary death, AP News reported.

Edward Dowd, a former Wall Street executive, said his firm Finance Technologies has spent the last four years doing deep, extensive research into excess deaths, disabilities, and injuries. Dowd said there has been a 37 percent rise in civilian labor forces since February 2021 with 4.5 million disabled individuals added, based on his research.

“We identify signals and changes in trends, so we believe that mRNA vaccines are the cause of these trends. Regardless of my opinion, the trend has emerged, which is quite alarming [and it] needs to be investigated,” he said.

More

Iowa lawmakers advance bill that would ban COVID-19 vaccines - The Daily Iowan

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

World-first graphene road surface laid in the North East

4 March 2025

A new graphene-enhanced road surface has been successfully tested in the UK for the first time in the North East.

The innovative material, which is said to be more durable and environmentally friendly, was used on a public road in Teesside.

Universal Matter GBR Ltd, a Redcar-based graphene company, collaborated with Tarmac, the UK's largest road construction firm, and Redcar & Cleveland Borough Council to lay the road using their Genable™ Pavement additive.New graphene-enhanced surface rested on Teesside.

The addition of graphene to the asphalt is said to extend the road's lifespan by reducing rutting and cracking, and increasing resistance to potholes.

This promises a 'smoother journey' for drivers and less damage to vehicles, potentially leading to 'significant reductions' in the carbon footprint of roads.

The enhanced asphalt material has previously been tested in several car parks in the United States and Canada, and at the National Center for Asphalt Technology (NCAT) test track.

However, this was the first demonstration on a public road anywhere in the world.

The graphene additive was mixed with over 150 tonnes of asphalt at Tarmac’s Coxhoe asphalt plant in Durham, before being transported to Flatts Lane Country Park, on the edge of Middlesbrough, where a new entrance road was constructed.

Andy Gent, the commercial director of Universal Matter, said: "It’s an exciting day for the business globally because it represents a real step forward for the product.

"It’s great to see it taken from the lab stage to full road application.

"This product has great potential, and we are delighted that Tarmac agreed to participate."

Universal Matter has developed cleaner, faster, and more economical technology to produce graphene, an advanced carbon-based nanomaterial with a wide range of applications.

Its proprietary Flash Joule Heating process, coupled with its 'distinct capability' to produce fully formulated graphene-based solutions, can greatly improve the properties of a wide range of infrastructure and industrial materials.

Graphene has a number of special properties – including strength and flexibility – which add value and enhance performance to materials like asphalt, as well as paints and coatings, concrete and tyres.

More

World-first graphene road surface laid in the North East

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Democracy is four wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch.

Ambrose Bierce.

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