Baltic Dry Index. 1643 +08 Brent Crude 72.00
Spot Gold 3022 US 2 Year Yield 3.94 -0.01
US Federal Debt. 36.635 trillion!!
A system of capitalism presumes sound money, not fiat money manipulated by a central bank. Capitalism cherishes voluntary contracts and interest rates that are determined by savings, not credit creation by a central bank.
Ron Paul
An interesting week ahead.
The end of month and end of quarter approaches. As does the Trump tariff deadline (or not, if he changes his mind once again,) of April 2.
The Fed’s favourite US inflation number is due out on Friday.
The USA and Russia hold talks today about ending the Biden War in Ukraine.
In the UK, the CPI on Wednesday and another hard left anti-business Treasury Statement, (budget statement) on Wednesday.
In Greenland, Trump’s pre-invasion recon team arrives.
All in all, a good week to invest/gamble in Las Vegas.
Asia-Pacific markets mostly higher even as Trump
reciprocal tariff deadline looms
Updated Mon, Mar 24 2025 10:51 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets are mostly higher
Monday as U.S. President Donald Trump’s April 2 tariff deadline looms.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped
0.07%.
South Korea’s Kospi was up 0.13%, while
the small-cap Kosdaq added 0.74% after South Korea’s Prime Minister Han
Duck-soo’s impeachment was struck down by the country’s Constitutional Court.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.14% while the
Topix slipped 0.24%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was up 0.10%
and mainland China’s CSI 300 traded flat after China’s Premier Li Qiang cautioned “rising instability” and
called for countries to open up markets and enterprises.
U.S. stock futures were higher, signaling
that equities could extend their
recent gains.
Last Friday in the U.S., the three major
averages closed higher. The indexes rebounded from their lows after Trump
mentioned there would be some “flexibility” regarding tariffs. However, he
reiterated the April 2 deadline for reciprocal tariffs.
The S&P 500 added 0.08% to close at
5,667.56, rising into positive territory to end four consecutive weeks of
declines that were brought on by trade policy turmoil, recession fears and a
rollover in megacap tech shares. The Nasdaq Composite gained
0.52% and settled at 17,784.05, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced
32.03 points, or 0.08%, to close at 41,985.35.
Asia-Pacific
markets live: Hang Seng Index, Nikkei
Wall Street Week Ahead
Mar. 23, 2025 7:18 AM ET
Wall Street has plenty to look forward to
next week, including a busy economic calendar that will culminate in a key
inflation reading. There is also a massive initial public offering on deck.
In economic indicators, investors will receive flash PMI readings from S&P,
along with another estimate on U.S. Q4 GDP growth. Friday will see the release
of the core personal consumption expenditures price index for February - a
gauge that is widely seen as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of
inflation. Fed chair Jerome Powell this week said any effects on inflation from
U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs would be "transitory."
The IPO market will be in focus as well, with American cloud computing firm
CoreWeave (CRWV) expected to
debut on the Nasdaq this week. The Nvidia (NVDA)-backed company
plans to raise as much as $2.7B and is looking for a valuation reaching $26B.
The IPO will also be a big test of the flagging artificial intelligence trade.
Tariffs will no doubt continue to garner attention, with traders looking out
for any updates on upcoming U.S. reciprocal tariffs set to go into effect on
April 2.
Wall Street Week Ahead | Seeking Alpha
In other news.
Greenland slams ‘highly aggressive’ visits by Usha
Vance and Mike Waltz after Trump’s takeover threats: Live
24 March 2025
Greenland's
prime minister has slammed the Trump administration’s “highly aggressive” move to deploy a delegation of senior officials to
the territory this week.
Tensions between Greenland and the U.S. are high following
President Donald Trump's repeated threats to annex the Danish
territory.
Relations worsened this weekend after it
was reported that Trump's national security adviser Mike Waltz and the energy
secretary Chris Wright will visit Greenland, in addition to Second Lady Usha
Vance arriving later in the week.
Greenland’s prime minister Mute B. Egede
was quoted in a Greenlandic newspaper Sunday questioning why Waltz was
visiting.
“We are now at a level where it can in no
way be characterized as a harmless visit from a politician's wife,” Egede said,
according to Greenland’s Sermitsiaq newspaper. “What is the national
security adviser doing in Greenland? The only purpose is to demonstrate power
over us.”
“He is Trump's confidential and closest
advisor, and his presence in Greenland alone will certainly make the Americans
believe in Trump's mission, and the pressure will increase after the visit,”
Egede added.
Vance's visit was announced by the White House Sunday and said she would
be accompanied by a United States delegation.
Donald Trump’s policies shatter Wall Street’s ‘US
exceptionalism’ trade
Stocks and dollar fall in tandem as
tariffs dent outlook for American economy
24 March 2025
Wall Street’s “American exceptionalism”
trade has been shattered in recent weeks as mounting political uncertainty over
Donald Trump’s tariffs, the economic outlook and geopolitics have fuelled an
unusually prolonged and deep twin sell-off in the US dollar and equities.
The greenback has lost 4 per cent against
a basket of six peers so far this year, while the blue-chip S&P 500 has
tumbled almost 4 per cent.
Such large and persistent falls in Wall
Street stocks and the currency are unusual, with these types of episodes
occurring only a handful of times over the past 25 years, according to research
by investment bank Goldman Sachs. The declines mark a reversal from recent
years, when bets that America’s economy would outperform peers triggered a
clamour for US financial assets at the expense of other major
markets.
“Growing doubts in recent weeks on the
sustainability of US exceptionalism sparked one of the fastest US equity market
corrections since the early 1970s,” Goldman Sachs told clients this week,
adding that “while equity market corrections are historically not that
uncommon, a coincident dollar sell-off is — especially when equities rapidly
reprice”.
The recent ructions for both US stocks and
the dollar come as Trump’s escalating trade war has shaken global financial
markets and sparked concerns about the trajectory of the world’s biggest
economy. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday slashed its growth forecast and
lifted its inflation outlook, citing tariffs for a significant portion of the
downgrade.
Until this year, Wall Street stocks had
dominated global markets — buoyed by expectations that the US economy would
continue to grow at a faster pace than its rivals. MSCI’s index of US equities
soared 54 per cent from 2023 to 2024, while the index provider’s gauge of
global developed market stocks excluding the US rose 17 per cent in dollar
terms, according to FactSet data.
In the immediate aftermath of Trump’s
election victory last November, equities roared even higher, while the dollar
leapt on bets that pro-business policies would boost growth, while tariffs
would ultimately prove to be more measured than the president-elect had
threatened.
But those bets have rapidly unravelled
since Trump’s inauguration in January, with the president launching steep
tariffs on imports from big trading partners including Mexico, Canada and
China, and threatened more to come — driving Wall Street banks to question how
long American assets can outperform.
“US exceptionalism — the defining macro
trade theme of this cycle — has waned to start the year and is dragging the
[dollar] lower,” currency strategists at JPMorgan noted this week, adding that
“we have turned outright bearish [on the dollar] for the first time in four
years”.
JPMorgan’s strategists highlighted
“uncertain tariff delivery” and “softening in US activity that is more acute
and front-loaded than expected” among reasons for their pessimism about the
dollar, while also pointing to a “watershed moment in German-European fiscal
and geopolitics” — referring to a recent proposal by the German government to
bolster military and infrastructure spending.
So far this year, the MSCI World index,
excluding the US, has risen almost 9 per cent, while the index provider’s US
gauge has fallen nearly 4 per cent
More
Donald Trump’s
policies shatter Wall Street’s ‘US exceptionalism’ trade
Beijing pledges greater market access as top
global CEOs gather at the China Development Forum
Published Mon, Mar 24 2025 12:30 AM EDT
China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng has
reassured foreign business leaders that Beijing will continue to open up its
market and welcome more investment from multinational companies, according to
a readout from the Ministry of Commerce.
He also discussed deepening economic and
trade partnerships between U.S. and China at the meeting Sunday with top
executives from Apple, Pfizer, Mastercard, Eli Lilly and other
multinational companies, the statement said.
“China remains committed to expanding
high-level opening-up of market, improving the business environment and
welcoming more multinational companies to deepen their investment in China,” Li
said, adding that China’s economy is “resilient, full of potential and
vitality.”
Foreign CEOs including Tim Cook of Apple,
Cristiano Amon of Qualcomm,
Pascal Soriot of AstraZeneca as
well as visiting U.S. Republican Senator Steve Daines are in Beijing to attend
the China Development Forum that kicked off Sunday.
Beijing has been seeking to attract
foreign investment as its economy grapples with sluggish domestic consumption
and a prolonged real estate slump. U.S. tariffs have threatened to slow down
its export, a rare bright spot in the faltering economy.
At the opening of the two-day business
forum, Chinese Premier Li Qiang said countries should open their markets in the face of
growing economic fragmentation and urged entrepreneurs to be “staunch defenders
and promoters of globalization.”
China’s State Council unveiled last month
an action plan aimed at attracting foreign investment, which
outlined steps including removing some restrictions on foreign investment in
the manufacturing sector and improving the process for foreign funds to carry
out mergers and acquisitions in the mainland.
U.S. President Donald Trump has
imposed 20%
in new tariffs on Chinese goods over the country’s alleged role in
illicit fentanyl trade. His administration is also expected to conclude
a review by April 1 of Beijing’s compliance with a trade deal that the
two sides had signed during his first term.
In a separate meeting on Sunday, Premier Li told U.S. Senator Daines and several senior
executives from U.S. firms that “both China and the U.S. stand to gain
from cooperation and lose from confrontation.”
More
Beijing
pledges greater market access as top global CEOs gather at the China
Development Forum
Canadian PM Carney calls snap election, says Trump
wants to break Canada
Published Sun, Mar 23 2025 2:09 PM EDT Updated
Sun, Mar 23 2025 5:55 PM EDT
New Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on
Sunday called a snap election for April 28, saying he needed a strong mandate
to deal with the threat posed by U.S. President Donald Trump, who “wants to break
us so America can own us.”
The comments showed the extent to which
relations between the U.S. and Canada, two long-time allies and major trading
partners, have deteriorated since Trump imposed tariffs on Canada and
threatened to annex it as the 51st state.
Although the next election was not due
until October 20, Carney is hoping to capitalize on a remarkable recovery by
his Liberal Party in the polls since January, when Trump began threatening
Canada and former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation.
Upon being sworn in as prime minister on
March 14, Carney had said he could work with and respected Trump. On Sunday,
however, he took a more combative approach.
“We are facing the most significant crisis
of our lifetimes because of President Trump’s unjustified trade actions and his
threats to our sovereignty,” Carney told reporters after the Governor General -
the personal representative of King Charles, Canada’s head of state - approved
his request for an election.
“Our response must be to build a strong
economy and a more secure Canada. President Trump claims that Canada isn’t a
real country. He wants to break us so America can own us. We will not let that
happen.”
The White House did not immediately
respond to a request for comment on Carney’s remarks.
Trump on March 6 delayed a broad 25%
tariff on some Canadian goods for 30 days. He has since imposed tariffs on
steel and aluminum imports and threatened reciprocal tariffs on additional
goods, including Canadian dairy and lumber, on April 2.
More
Canadian PM Carney calls snap election, says Trump wants to break Canada
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
'Stagflation
has arrived': Frequent Fox economics analysis guest sounds dire warning
22
March 2025
The
Kobeissi Letter, the economics analysis letter founded by frequent Fox Business
guest Adam Kobeissi, put out a new warning on the American economy on Friday.
Writing on X, the Kobeissi
Letter pointed to data released this week by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve
as a particularly troubling signpost about where the economy is headed.
"The
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index dropped 5.6 points in March, to 12.5, its
2nd consecutive monthly decline," Kobeissi wrote. "6-month outlook
for new orders fell by 30.8 points, to 2.3, the lowest in 3 years. This marks
the third-largest drop in history, only behind the 2008 Financial Crisis and
December 1973."
December
1973 was in the wake of the oil embargo that sent energy prices in the United
States skyrocketing.
And
that's not all the bad knows that Kobeissi found in the latest Fed data.
"Furthermore,
6-month business outlook dropped ~40 points to its lowest since January
2024," the letter noted. "All while prices paid rose 7.8 points, to
48.3, the highest since July 2022."
The
bottom line, according to Kobeissi, is that "this is further evidence of
weakening economic activity with rising prices. Stagflation has arrived."
'Stagflation has arrived': Frequent Fox economics analysis guest sounds dire warning
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the development
of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported.
Nanoparticle breakthrough could bring 'holy grail' of solar power
within reach
14 March 2025
Scientists have made a cheap and flexible
solar cell that lasts nearly 10 times longer than others of its type, an
advance that could one day help to revolutionize solar energy production.
Often referred to as the "holy grail" of solar power, perovskite cells offer a lightweight alternative
to traditional silicon-based solar technology. Their flexible structure enables
them to be applied to cars and phones in the form of a printable layer so they
can charge on the go.
Sounds too good to be true? So far,
you're right. Perovskites come with some major flaws. Notably, they degrade
quickly due to chemical reactions with moisture in the air that make them leak
iodine.
But now, a team of researchers has found
a solution to this problem. By embedding nanoparticles within the perovskites,
they produced a new cell that lasts for 1,530 hours, a near-tenfold increase on
previous perovskite solar cell designs. The researchers published their
findings Feb. 20 in the journal EES Solar.
"By addressing these common
challenges we see with perovskite solar technology, our research blows the
doors wide open for cheaper, more efficient and more widely accessible solar
power," study co-author Imalka Jayawardena, an engineering
researcher at the University of Surrey's Advanced Technology Institute in the
U.K., said in a statement. "What we've achieved here is a critical step
toward developing high-performance solar cells that can withstand real-world
conditions — bringing us closer to their commercial use at a global
scale."
Solar power surge
As the fastest-growing and cheapest form
of renewable energy, solar power is key to cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
But the technology's growth is hampered by its reliance on silicon, a finite
and non-renewable resource that, in its purest form, is costly to produce.
To get around this bottleneck,
scientists have looked to develop perovskite alternatives — synthetic versions
of naturally occurring calcium titanium oxide crystals that can be made at a
fraction of the cost. But unlike pure silicon cells, which can last for
decades, solar cells made from perovskite only last for 100 or so hours,
drastically limiting their utility.
In the new study, the scientists looked
for a way to trap the iodine that leaks from perovskites. Their solution was to
embed tiny nanoparticles of aluminum oxide within the cells as they were
manufactured. This not only prevented the iodine from leaking but also created
a more uniform and electrically conductive structure.
After testing these cells under extreme
heat and humidity, the researchers found that the modified cells maintained a
high performance for more than two months (1,530 hours), a significant
improvement on the 160-hour lifespan of unenhanced perovskite cells.
The researchers plan to continue
investigating their new technique to see if these gains can be built upon
further.
"A decade ago, the idea of
perovskite solar cells lasting this long under real-world conditions seemed out
of reach," study lead author Hashini Perera, a researcher at the Advanced
Technology Institute, said in the statement. "With these improvements,
we're breaking new ground in stability and performance, bringing perovskite
technology closer to becoming a mainstream energy solution."
Nanoparticle breakthrough could bring 'holy grail' of solar power within
reach
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Near
the top of the market, investors are extraordinarily optimistic because they've
seen mostly higher prices for a year or two. The sell-offs witnessed during
that span were usually brief. Even when they were severe, the market bounced
back quickly and always rose to loftier levels. At the top, optimism is king,
speculation is running wild, stocks carry high price/earnings ratios, and
liquidity has evaporated. A small rise in interest rates can easily be the
catalyst for triggering a bear market at that point.
Martin
Zweig
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