Baltic
Dry Index. 1669 +19 Brent Crude 70.58
Spot
Gold 2985 U S 2 Year Yield 4.02 +0.08
US
Federal Debt. 36.597 trillion.
Gold would have value if for no other reason than that it
enables a citizen to fashion his financial escape from the state.
William F. Rickenbacker.
If the US economy isn’t
rolling over it’s doing an Oscar winning performance of faking it.
With China’s economy
in disinflation, the German led EU economy entering recession and the UK
economy about to enter a socialist UK government generated recession next
month, if the US economy is in fact rolling over, a summer debt default crisis
looms for many corporations and over indebted consumers.
We open with Friday’s
US stock casinos relief rally, but the US stock casinos have still lost close
to 5 trillion dollars in wealth in just the last three weeks.
With the end of the
quarter coming up later this month, Q1 25 is likely to be very ugly.
Dow
pops more than 650 points in relief bounce Friday, but still posts worst week since
2023
Updated
Fri, Mar 14 2025 4:23 PM EDT
Stocks rallied Friday, clawing back some of the
steep losses seen over the week, as investors got a reprieve from
tariff-related headlines.
The Dow
Jones Industrial Average rose 674.62 points, or 1.65%, to close at
41,488.19. The S&P 500 climbed
2.13% to end at 5,638.94, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced
2.61% to settle at 17,754.09. It was the best day in 2025 for both the S&P
500 and the Nasdaq.
Big tech shares that were rattled earlier this week
saw a sharp recovery on Friday. Nvidia shares
popped more than 5%. Tesla jumped
nearly 4%, and Meta Platforms gained
close to 3%. Amazon and Apple also rose.
Stocks bounced after a lack of new headlines out of
the White House related to tariffs, easing concerns around escalating tensions
for the time being. Investors might also be scooping up shares after a stock
market pullback on Thursday.
A decline
of more than 1% Thursday pulled the S&P 500 into a correction – a
decline of at least 10% from the record close notched just 16 days ago. The
session’s sell-off dragged the Nasdaq further into correction, and it brought
the small-cap Russell 2000 closer
to a bear market, or a drawdown of 20% from its high.
That marked another milestone in the pullback that
has gripped investors over the past three weeks as President Donald Trump’s
on-again-off-again tariff policy drove up uncertainty and market volatility.
Indeed, even Friday’s rally couldn’t spare the three
major averages from weekly losses. The Dow fell roughly 3.1% for its worst week
since March 2023. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both dropped more than 2% and
posted their fourth consecutive losing week.
Adding to Friday’s positive sentiment was Senate
minority leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., saying he
wouldn’t block a Republican government funding bill.
However, data released Friday from the University of
Michigan confirmed that consumer confidence has suffered from the ongoing
tariff-related uncertainty, worries that have driven the market down the last
three weeks. Consumer
sentiment dropped in March to 57.9, lower than the 63.2 economists
polled by Dow Jones had expected.
“Consumer sentiment came in worse, inflation
expectations are rising, the 10-year
Treasury yield is rising. You would think that the market would be
off. So a lot of folks are watching to see if this rally has any breadth or
legs,” said Thomas Martin, portfolio manager at Globalt Investments.
Investors are gearing up for the Federal Reserve policy
meeting scheduled for next week, where fed funds futures are pricing in a 97% likelihood of interest rates holding steady,
according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
“What we would like to see is rates not go up,
because that would be an indication that the Fed is losing control. If the Fed
says they’re cutting and rates go up, that’s a lack of confidence,” Martin
added.
Stock
market news for March 14, 2025
U.S.
consumers are starting to crack as tariffs add to inflation, recession concerns
Published
Fri, Mar 14 2025 11:41 AM EDT Updated Fri, Mar 14 2025 3:38 PM EDT
It’s
not just Walmart.
The
leaders of companies that serve everyone from penny-pinching grocery shoppers
to first-class
travelers are seeing cracks in demand, a shift after resilient
consumers propped up the U.S. economy for years despite prolonged inflation. On
top of high interest rates and persistent inflation,
CEOs are now grappling with how to handle new hurdles like on-again, off-again
tariffs, mass government layoffs and worsening consumer
sentiment.
Across
earnings calls and investor presentations in recent weeks, retailers and other
consumer-facing businesses warned that first-quarter sales were coming in
softer than expected and the rest of the year might be tougher than Wall Street
thought. Many of the executives blamed unseasonably cool weather and a
“dynamic” macroeconomic environment, but the early days of President Donald Trump’s second term have
brought new challenges — perhaps none greater than trying to plan a global
business at a time when his administration shifts its trade policies by
the hour.
Economists
largely expect Trump’s new
tariffs on goods from China, Canada and Mexico will raise prices for
consumers and dampen spending at a time when inflation remains higher than the
Federal Reserve’s target. In February, consumer confidence — which can help to
signal how much shoppers are willing to shell out — saw the biggest
drop since 2021. A separate consumer sentiment measure for March also came
in worse than expected.
Another
sign of weakness has been in air travel. The sector, especially large
international airlines, had been a bright spot following the pandemic, with
consumers proving again and again that
they wouldn’t give up trips even in the face of the biggest jump inflation in
more than four decades. This week, however, the CEOs of the four largest U.S.
airlines — United, American, Delta and Southwest — said they are
seeing a
slowdown in demand this quarter. American, Delta and Southwest cut
their first-quarter forecasts.
Plus,
the strong U.S. job market of recent years is showing early
signs of stress as job growth slows and unemployment ticks up.
These
trends have thrown cold water on what was a red-hot stock market and sparked
new fears about a potential
recession, sending the S&P 500 tumbling
10% from its record highs in February, though it had recovered
significant ground by Friday afternoon.
Now,
as investors and executives grow more worried about the impact tariffs will
have on consumer spending and fret about an administration they had
high hopes for just a few months ago, even the strongest companies are striking
cautious tones as the weaker ones get even louder.
More
Delta,
Walmart warn about consumer spending amid tariffs, inflation
Gold
clears $3,000 for first time ever
Friday 14 March 2025 11:45
am | Updated: Friday 14 March 2025 12:08 pm
Gold prices scaled $3,000 per ounce for the first
time ever on Friday, as investors and central banks continue to hoover up the
popular safe haven asset as a bulwark against persistent geopolitical and
economic uncertainty.
The milestone caps an astonishing rally for the yellow metal in recent years.
The price of gold has jumped more than 50 per cent
since the start of 2023 and 30 per cent in the past year.
Bullion climbed 0.4 per cent to reach $3,001.20 at
10am GMT, breaking the psychological barrier of $3,000 for the first time in
its centuries-long history as a store of value in choppy, unpredictable times.
Analysts have put the asset’s latest bull run down
to the uncertainty bred by Donald Trump’s chaotic tariff policies.
The volatility has added to the longer-term demand
there has been from central banks and investors as part of a wider
de-dollarisation trend since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Gold
prices benefit from risk-off sentiment
“Gold has proven to perform well even in risk-off
environments. Over the past five years, two key forces have driven the metal’s
price higher – strong central bank demand and growing interest from
emerging market investors,” Reade added.
“Gold is an asset that is able to preserve value
under the biggest variety of macroeconomic dislocations that we have seen,”
said Thomas Kertsos, co-portfolio manager at First Eagle Investment Management LLC.
“We’ve seen that over centuries gold has been able
to — despite the volatility — always mean-revert and always maintain its
purchasing power, all while providing significant liquidity.”
The milestone has sparked speculation that gold
might continue its run and reach $3,500.
In a note last, Bank of America analysts led by
Michael Widmer said: “For it to hit $3,500/oz, investment demand would need to
rise 10 per cent. That’s a lot, but not impossible.”
Gold clears $3,000 for first time ever
In other news, that
Great Trump Trade War on the Rest of the World is generating a Great Global Backlash.
Nothing good for anyone comes from this.
Boycott
USA: Trump’s tariff trade war sparks international movement to reject Uncle Sam
14 March 2025
Consumers around the world are looking for ways
to boycott American
products in response to Donald Trump’s trade war - and they are using apps to help them do it.
Politicians in badly affected countries are
encouraging citizens to buy local after the US president imposed tariffs on a
range of goods. Canada, Mexico and China were the first in Trump’s firing line
but now he has introduced 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminium from anywhere in the world.
Government reactions have been mixed so far; while
the EU is introducing counter-tariffs on €26bn (£21.9bn) worth of American goods including motorbikes,
industrial goods and Kentucky Bourbon, some countries like the UK have been
more cautious in their response.
However, consumers who want to find a way to fight
back against Trump’s tactics are taking matters into their own hands.
A plethora of apps have appeared to help Canadians
and Europeans choose local goods over American products, including ‘Maple
Scan’. The phone app allows you to scan products to check the ownership and
history of the brand, and suggest alternatives if it is not ‘Canadian first’.
Websites such as Made in Canada, European Alternatives and Buy European
have also been set up while social media accounts showing alternatives to US goods have also become popular on sites
like TikTok.
Redditors have created practical guides for
Canadians looking to switch their US purchasing habits with local ones, listing
alternatives for everything from Levi’s jeans and Pepsi to Netflix and Uber.
“Now is the time for Canadians to stand together
against his aggression,” one poster said.
Canadians are also avoiding travel across the
border, and in such numbers that Forbes estimates
it could cost the US economy $4 billion. Road trips from Canada to its southern
neighbor have dropped by 23 per cent compared to February last year, data from
Statistics Canada shows, while Flight Centre told the magazine it had seen “a
surge of customers” cancelling US holidays.
Outside Canada, Facebook groups
have been set up to organise and promote the boycott of US goods, as Google
searches for “Boycott US” and “Boycott USA” remain strong after spiking earlier
this month.
Searches have been particularly strong in Denmark,
where there is anger over Trump’s talk of taking over Greenland as well as tariffs. More than 75,000 people have joined a Danish
Boycott USA group on Facebook to discuss where they can buy non-American
alternatives to favorite products, including tobacco.
More than 21,000 people have joined the “BOYCOTT USA: Achetez Français et Européen!” group on Facebook, which translates to “BOYCOTT USA: Buy French and
European”, while a Swedish group “Bojkotta varor från USA” (”Boycott goods
from the USA”) has nearly 80,000 members.
Consumer boycotts are also shifting business
behavior.
The chief executive of major Danish retailer Salling
Group, Anders Hagh, said that due to consumer demand, their stores would not
take American items off the shelves but it would label products from European
brands with a black star to help identify locally produced items.
Garritt van Dyk, a lecturer in history at the
University of Waikato in New Zealand, told Deutsche Welle that consumer boycotts have become a popular way for consumers to
exercise their political opinions beyond voting.
More
Boycott USA: Trump’s tariff trade war sparks international movement to
reject Uncle Sam
Greenland
PM blasts Trump talk of U.S. annexation: ‘Enough is enough’
Published
Thu, Mar 13 2025 1:32 PM EDT Updated Thu, Mar 13 2025 3:58 PM EDT
The outgoing prime minister of Greenland blasted talk Thursday by President Donald Trump that the potential annexation of the massive Arctic island by
the United States would happen.
“The U.S. president has once again aired the thought
of annexing us,” Prime Minister Mute Egede wrote in a Facebook post.
“Don’t keep treating us with disrespect. Enough is
enough,” Egede wrote.
The prime minister wrote that he plans to convene a
meeting of the chairmen of all Greenland’s political parties “as soon as
possible” to address Trump’s comments.
“Because this time we need to tighten our rejection
of Trump,” Egede wrote.
The Facebook post came hours after Trump yet again
discussed the idea of the U.S. taking over Greenland, which is currently a
territory of Denmark.
A reporter asked Trump, “What is your vision for the
potential annexation of Greenland.”
“I think it’ll happen,” Trump replied during a
meeting in the White House with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
Trump said the U.S. needs the island “for
international security.”
The president then turned to Rutte and said “we’ll
be talking to you” about the issue.
“It’s really an appropriate question,” the president
added.
Rutte quickly said, “When it comes to Greneland, yes
or no joining the U.S., I would leave that outside, for me, this discussion,
because I don’t want to direct NATO in that.”
Denmark, like the United States was a founding
member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a major international
alliance created in 1949 on the heels of World War II.
Denmark has controlled Greenland, the world’s
largest island, since the 14th century.
However, Greenland has been self-governing since
1979.
On Tuesday, the center-right, pro-business
Demokraaitit party won a surprise parliamentary election victory in Greenland,
garnering 30% of the vote.
The party supports a gradual independence from
Denmark.
More
Greenland PM blasts Trump talk of U.S. annexation
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given our Magic Money
Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
US
Consumer Sentiment Drops, Price Expectations Soar on Tariffs
By Nazmul
Ahasan March 14, 2025
US consumer sentiment fell to a more than two-year
low and long-term inflation expectations jumped by the most since 1993,
illustrating growing apprehension about the economic impact from tariffs.
The preliminary March sentiment
index dropped to 57.9, the lowest level since November 2022, from 64.7 a
month earlier, according to University of Michigan data issued Friday. The
figure was weaker than all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
More, subscription required.
US
Consumer Sentiment Drops, Inflatuion Expectations Soar on Tariffs - Bloomberg
Recession
alert: UK economy SHRINKS by 0.1% in shock to Rachel Reeves before Spring
Budget
14 March 2025
The UK economy contracted by 0.1 per cent for January 2025 a blow to Chancellor Rachel
Reeves, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics
(ONS).
Reeves has pledged to "kickstart the
economy" with the fiscal policies outlined in her Autumn
Budget and upcoming Spring Statement but she has received backlash from the
business community over her tax changes.
This shrinking of the economy comes as a surprise to
City economists, who expected gross domestic product (GDP) growth to jump by 0.1 per cent over the period.
ONS data revealed the services sector was unable to
offset a decline in the industrial sector and maintain growth from the previous
month.
As a result of these figures, the UK inches closer
to recession territory, which happens when a country experiences two
consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.
Recession alert: UK economy SHRINKS by 0.1% in shock to Rachel Reeves
before Spring Budget
Consumer
Angst Is Striking All Income Levels
Signs
of weakness are showing up in spending on everything from basics to luxuries
Updated March 13, 2025
10:14 am ET
American
consumers have had a lot to fret about so far this year, between never-ending
tariff headlines,
stubborn inflation and most recently, fresh fears about a recession. These
concerns seem to be hitting spending by both rich and poor, across necessities
and luxuries, all at once.
Take
low-income consumers: At an interview at the
Economic Club of Chicago in late February, Walmart Chief
Executive Doug McMillon said “budget-pressured” customers are showing
stressed behaviors: They are buying smaller pack sizes at the end of the month
because their “money runs out before the month is gone.” McDonald’s said in its
most recent earnings call that the fast-food industry has had a “sluggish
start” to the year, in part because of weak demand from low-income consumers.
Across the U.S. fast-food industry, sales to low-income guests were down by a
double-digit percentage in the fourth quarter compared with a year earlier,
according to McDonald’s.
Dollar
General on
its earnings call on Thursday said its customers report only having enough
money for
basic essentials;
some are having to sacrifice even on necessities. The company doesn’t expect
any improvement in the economic environment this year and is watching potential
changes to government entitlement programs. Dollar stores rely more heavily on
food-stamp benefits, which could be on the table for budget cuts.
Things
don’t look much better on the higher end. American consumers’ spending on the
luxury market, which includes high-end department stores and online platforms,
fell 9.3% in February from a year earlier, worse than the 5.9% decline in
January, according to Citi’s analysis of its credit-card transactions data.
Costco, whose
membership-fee-paying customer base skews higher-income, said last week that
demand has shifted toward lower-cost proteins such as ground beef and poultry.
Its members are still spending but are being “very choiceful” about where they
spend, Chief Financial Officer Gary Millerchip said. He said
consumers could become even pickier if they see more inflation from tariffs.
Dollar General said Thursday that sales to higher-earning households, who are
seeking cheaper options, accelerated in the past few weeks.
Department
stores are seeing signs of penny-pinching all around, too. On Tuesday, Kohl’s CEO Ashley
Buchanan said consumers making less than $50,000 a year are “pretty
constrained” on discretionary spending, but added that “it’s also pretty
challenging” for those making less than $100,000. The company gave a much
weaker sales forecast for
the full year than Wall Street expected, causing its share price to plunge 24%
on Tuesday. Last week, Macy’s CEO Tony
Spring said the “affluent customer that’s shopping [at] Macy’s is just as
uncertain and as confused and concerned by what’s transpiring.”
The
economy has seen pockets of weakness in recent years, but nothing that suggests
such widespread weakness. The period following the pandemic was dubbed
by some a “Richcession” because higher earners’ wage growth lagged
behind those of in-demand blue-collar workers.
But
poorer households’ gains
have since reversed:
Starting in 2023, Covid-era increases to food-stamp
benefits were rolled back, and by late 2024, wage growth for the lowest-income
Americas started trailing those of richer Americans, according to data from the
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Several years of inflation—particularly on
necessities such as groceries, rents and utility bills—have hit poorer
Americans hard. But a strong stock market, buoyed by artificial-intelligence
hype, kept wealthier folks spending.
Now,
everyone seems to be feeling more cautious, and this spending restraint is
affecting several categories. There are signs that consumers are pulling back
on air travel, for example. Delta Air Lines, American Airlines and JetBlue all cut
their first-quarter guidance earlier this week. Delta CEO Ed
Bastian said at an industry conference on Tuesday that there was
“something going on with economic sentiment, something going on with consumer
confidence.”
Citi’s
analysis of its U.S. credit-card data shows that spending has fallen across
most retail categories. In the retail quarter to date, spending plunged 12% and
22% on apparel and athletic footwear, respectively, compared with a year
earlier. But even less-discretionary categories such as food retail,
aftermarket auto parts and pet retail are seeing moderate declines.
More
Consumer Angst Is
Striking All Income Levels - WSJ
Technology
Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Correction
to Tuesday’s Heathrow airport tunnel vehicle fire. It was widely first reported as an EV fire. The London
Fire Brigade have corrected that to be a diesel vehicle fire not an EV fire. Much easier for the LFB to deal with.
Battery breakthrough as 99.99% of lithium extracted from old cells
12 March 2025
Scientists have discovered a way to
recycle nearly 100 per cent of the materials within lithium-ion batteries.
The eco-friendly method can help address
the urgent need to deal with e-waste from old smartphones and electric cars,
according the the team of Chinese researchers who came up with it.
The discovery uses tiny micro batteries
to break down the lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese from a battery, before
using an amino acid to extract the metals.
The use of glycine as the amino acid
avoids using harsh chemicals for the recycling process, as well as the creation
of toxic byproducts.
The newly developed system is able to
recover 99.99 per cent of the lithium, 96.8 per cent of the nickel, 92.35 per
cent of the cobalt and 90.59 per cent of the manganese from old batteries in
just 15 minutes.
The breakthrough came from a
collaboration between Central South University in Changsha, Guizhou Normal
University, and the National Engineering Research Center of Advanced Energy
Storage Materials.
Battery waste has become an increasing
problem in recent years due to the massive demand for consumer electronics like
smartphones and laptops, as well as the electrification of the automotive
industry.
A recent report from
Stanford University in the US, published in the journal Nature
Communications, found that recycling lithium-ion batteries is far more
environmentally friendly than mining for new materials.
Current recycling methods, however, can
still be damaging to the environment due to the products they use and
the emissions they create.
The latest method, which is detailed in
the journal Angewandte Chemie International Edition, offers a way
to address such issues.
“This green and efficient strategy in
neutral solution environment opens a new pathway to realise the large-scale
pollution-free recycling of spent batteries,” the researchers wrote in the study, titled
‘A Green and Efficient Recycling Strategy for Spent Lithium-Ion Batteries in
Neutral Solution Environment’.
Battery breakthrough as 99.99% of lithium extracted from old cells
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
This
weekend’s music diversion. Back to Bach. Approx. 8 minutes.
Helene
Grimaud - Bach Harpsichord Concerto BWV 1052 III
Helene Grimaud -
Bach Harpsichord Concerto BWV 1052 III - YouTube
This
weekend’s chess diversion. Approx 12
minutes.
"Welcome
to My Deep, Dark Forest" || Daniil Dubov vs Hans Niemann || 18 Game Blitz
Match (2025)
"Welcome to My
Deep, Dark Forest" || Daniil Dubov vs Hans Niemann || 18 Game Blitz Match
(2025)
This
weekend’s final diversion. A good way to end the week. Someone needs to let
President Trump know about this. Approx. 20 minutes.
Aircraft
Loses All Power: ATC Saves the Day!
Aircraft Loses All
Power: ATC Saves the Day!
The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always
print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default.
Alan Greenspan. (The German hyperinflation solution!)
Hyperinflation
in the Weimar Republic
---- This inflation
continued into the post-war period, particularly when in August 1921 the German
central bank began buying hard
cash with
paper currency at any price, which they claimed was to pay reparations in hard
cash, though little in the way of cash reparations payments were made until
1924. The currency stabilised in early 1922, but then hyperinflation took off:
the exchange value of the mark fell from 320 marks per dollar in mid 1922 to
7,400 marks per US dollar by December 1922. This hyperinflation continued into
1923, and by November 1923, one US dollar was worth 4,210,500,000,000 marks.
Various measures were introduced by German authorities to address this,
including a new currency called the Rentenmark, backed by mortgage
bonds, later itself replaced by the Reichsmark, and the blocking of the
national bank from printing further paper currency.
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