Baltic
Dry Index. 1602 -19 Brent Crude 73.40
Spot Gold 3115 US 2 Year Yield 3.89 -0.08
US Federal Debt. 36.664 trillion!!
“When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win.”
Donald Trump.
It is the end of the month and end of the quarter in the global stock casinos, with all about to get hit from “Liberation Day,” President Trump’s tariff trade war Wednesday.
On Friday, the US stock casinos might get another shock from the latest US employment numbers, where there’s a chance that for the first time the DOGE firings and cutbacks will start showing up.
If the stock casinos drop into bear market territory this week, will Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway start deploying its Mount Everest of cash and start selectively acquiring new companies? If not, April is likely to get off to a record book bad start.
Japan's Nikkei slumps over 3% as fresh Trump
tariffs due this week keep investors on edge
Updated Sun, Mar 30 2025 11:36 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets plunged Monday ahead
of U.S. President Donald Trump’s fresh round of tariffs expected later in the
week.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 was down 3.85%,
after having plunged
over 4%, while the broader Topix index lost 3.26%.
Over in South Korea, the Kospi index fell 2.75% while
the small-cap Kosdaq declined 2.63%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down
1.63%.
Mainland China’s CSI 300 lost 0.67% while Hong
Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell
0.78%.
China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI for March
came in at 50.5, in line with predictions by economists polled by Reuters
slightly higher than 50.2 reading in the previous month.
Indian markets were closed for a public
holiday.
U.S. futures
slipped as investors await clarity on Trump’s tariff plans.
Stocks had sold off sharply last Friday,
amid growing uncertainty on U.S. trade policy and a bleak inflation outlook.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed
down 715.80 points, or 1.69%, at 41,583.90. The S&P 500 shed 1.97% to
5,580.94, ending the week down for the fifth time in the last six weeks.
The Nasdaq Composite plunged
2.7% to settle at 17,322.99.
Shares of several technology giants
dropped, putting pressure on the broader market. Google-parent Alphabet lost 4.9%, while Meta and Amazon each shed 4.3%.
Asia
markets live: Stocks fall
Gold surges past $3,100 as US tariffs, uncertainty
propel safe-haven flows
Published Sun, Mar 30 2025 10:56 PM EDT
Gold prices on Monday soared above
$3,100 per ounce for the first time as concerns around U.S. President Donald
Trump’s tariffs and the potential economic fallout, combined with geopolitical
worries, drove a fresh wave of investments into the safe-haven asset.
Spot
gold prices hit a record high of $3,106.50 per ounce.
Gold prices have hit multiple record
highs, gaining more than 18% so far this year - capitalising on its cachet as
hedge against economic and geopolitical turbulence.
Earlier this month, it breached the
psychological $3,000 per ounce mark for the first time - a significant
milestone that experts say reflects growing concerns over economic
instability, geopolitical tensions and inflation.
Bullion’s rally has prompted multiple
banks to increase their price forecasts for gold this year.
“For now, gold’s appeal as a safe
haven and inflation hedge has further strengthened in light of these
geopolitical concerns and tariff uncertainty. We remain constructive on the
outlook of gold amid ongoing global trade friction and uncertainty,”
said analysts at OCBC.
Goldman Sachs, Bank of
America and UBS have all raised their price targets for the
yellow metal this month, with Goldman forecasting gold to hit
$3,300/oz by the end of the year, up from $3,100. BofA expects gold to
trade at $3,063/oz in 2025 and $3,350/oz in 2026 - an increase from its
previous forecasts of $2,750/oz for 2025 and $2,625/oz for 2026.
Trump has floated plans for a series
of new tariffs aimed at protecting U.S. industries and reducing trade deficits
since he took office, including a 25% tariffs on imported cars and auto parts,
as well as an additional 10% on all imports from China. He intends to announce
a fresh set of reciprocal tariffs on April 2.
“Tariff issues will continue
driving (gold) prices higher until there is some finality to the
tit-for-tat campaign,” Marex consultant Edward Meir said.
Additional factors, like robust central
bank demand and exchange-traded fund inflows, will also continue
supporting gold’s stunning rally this year, analysts and investment banks
say.
Gold
surges past $3,100 as US tariffs, uncertainty propel safe-haven flows
US stocks tumble as consumer gloom raises
stagflation fears
Americans express rising alarm over
economy and job prospects as Trump’s tariffs weigh on outlook
28 March 2025
Wall Street stocks dropped on Friday as
signs of strain among American consumers added to worries the US is heading for
a bout of stagflation.
A batch of data added fresh evidence that
consumers are growing deeply concerned about how President Donald Trump’s
sweeping tariffs will affect the world’s largest economy, while a separate
report showed the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure rose in
February.
The gloomy data comes at a time when
investors are worried that Trump’s trade levies combined with a broader sense
of uncertainty will hurt US economic growth while also increasing price
pressures. The new reports sent investors rushing away from US equities and
into havens.
----“US data is only inflaming stagflation
fears,” said James Knightley, an economist at investment bank ING. “Hot
inflation and cooling consumer spending are trends that are likely to be
intensified by President Trump’s aggressive moves on tariffs and government
spending cuts.”
A survey by the University of Michigan
released on Friday showed that consumer sentiment plunged in March as Americans
worried about their job prospects, inflation and income levels. Households also
forecast inflation over the long term of 4.1 per cent, the highest since 1993.
----Consumer spending, meanwhile, rose 0.4
per cent last month, a reversal from January’s 0.3 per cent decline, but not as
strong as the 0.5 per cent increase economists forecast, a separate report from
the US Bureau of Economic Analysis showed.
Pantheon Macroeconomics’ senior US
economist Oliver Allen said the consumer spending data was “disappointing” and
that an “underlying slowdown in demand growth also seems to be under way”.
Goldman Sachs cut its forecast for
first-quarter GDP in response to the weak data, by 0.4 percentage points to an
annualised growth rate of 0.6 per cent, citing “softer than expected” personal
spending growth in February and a downward revision to January’s figure.
The Atlanta Fed also cut its running
forecast for first-quarter GDP to show a contraction of 2.8 per cent on an
annualised basis, compared with 1.8 per cent as recently as Wednesday. Its
model has contrasted with Wall Street banks, which broadly still expect growth
in early 2025.
The BEA’s report on Friday also showed
that the core reading of the personal consumption expenditure price index was
up 2.8 per cent in February from a year ago.
Economists expected the index, a measure
that is closely watched by the Fed which strips out food and energy, to be up
2.7 per cent, unchanged from January’s upwardly revised rate. The main PCE
index rose 2.5 per cent last month, unchanged from January.
More
US stocks tumble
as consumer gloom raises stagflation fears
The Era of Cheap Stuff Was Already Ending. Now
Comes the Tariff Threat.
Goods prices are rising after decades of
deflation, and Trump’s tariffs will give an added push
March 30, 2025 5:00 am ET
President Trump’s tariffs threaten to
amplify a big inflation challenge: Even before the new levies landed, a long run of everyday stuff getting
cheaper was coming to a close.
Most prices gradually go up most of the
time. But over the 20 years before the pandemic, the basket of physical
products that typical shoppers buy didn’t get even a cent more expensive.
Prices of core goods in the consumer-price
index—that is, excluding food and fuel—fell 1.7% between December 2011 and
December 2019. Over the same period, prices of core services like housing,
healthcare and education rose 2.7% a year. The combined effect of rising
service and falling goods prices was a core inflation rate of 2% a year
overall.
Goods prices shot up during the pandemic,
peaking in summer 2023 then declining over the following 12 months. But in September,
core goods prices started rising again, by an average of 0.1% a month,
including 0.2% in February.
“You’ve got high readings for goods
inflation, after a string of readings that average close to zero,” Federal
Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said during a press conference this
month.
Powell said that the increase is probably
partly because of tariffs and partly because of other factors.
“The recent data are telling us that for
goods, you won’t have that same deflationary impulse as you did during the
2010s,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TSLombard, a research
firm.
Blitz thinks goods inflation will help
push up overall prices by about 3% this year, above the Fed’s 2% target. After
falling sharply from its 2022 peak, core inflation using the Fed’s preferred
metric has stalled between 2.6% and 3%.
More
The
Era of Cheap Stuff Was Already Ending. Now Comes the Tariff Threat. - WSJ
In other news.
Japan, China, South Korea discuss free trade deal
amid Trump tariffs
30 March 2025
Industry ministers from Japan, China, and
South Korea have returned to the idea of free trade between their countries.
This comes just days before the US is expected to introduce new tariffs
worldwide, Bloomberg reports.
South Korea’s Minister of Industry Ahn
Duk-geun, along with his counterparts from Japan, Yoji Muto, and China, Wang
Wentao, discussed a free trade agreement on Sunday in Seoul.
It is noted that while they did not make
significant progress toward such an agreement, the meeting demonstrated a
growing willingness among the three countries to strengthen ties amid the
impact of US tariffs.
"We especially recognized the need
for ongoing trilateral economic and trade cooperation to effectively address
emerging challenges and achieve tangible outcomes in key areas," the three
ministers said in a joint statement.
They also pledged to strengthen the
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a framework aimed at
optimizing supply chains and expanding trade and investment among Asia's
largest economies, including China, Japan, and South Korea. The United States
is not part of this agreement.
The meeting took place as a 25% US tariff
on imported cars is set to take effect on April 3 at 12:01 a.m. Washington
time. Notably, Japan and South Korea are major exporters of vehicles to the US.
More
Japan, China,
South Korea discuss free trade deal amid Trump tariffs
‘Trump Slump’ Looms as Foreign Visitors Rethink
Travel to U.S.
A growing number of travelers say they are
worried about feeling unwelcome or unsafe in America and are reluctant to
support the economy of a country that may be destabilizing other nations.
March 26, 2025
International tourists detained at U.S.
borders.
Steep tariffs imposed on trade
partners. Threats against longtime
allies.
The onslaught of contested policies and
language by the Trump administration in recent weeks is causing tourists around
the globe to either cancel or reconsider travel to the United States. A growing
number of visitors say they feel unwelcome or unsafe and are reluctant to
support the economy of a country that some foreign
officials say is waging trade wars and destabilizing its allies. A draft of a new
travel ban circulating
through the administration could restrict citizens from up to 43 countries,
including Belarus, Cambodia and St. Lucia, from entering the United States.
“So many Americans are looking to escape
the tense and toxic atmosphere at home. Why would anyone want to visit,
especially right now with all the arbitrary detentions at immigration?” said
Mallory Henderson, 53, a marketing consultant in London who usually visits the
United States twice a year, but canceled a trip to visit her brother and niece
in Boston this Easter.
“It’s a really hostile and scary time, and
quite frankly, there’s plenty of other inviting and pleasant places I can go to
meet up with my family,” she said.
Even before the change in administration
in January, the U.S. travel industry was struggling to recover from the
pandemic, mainly because of the strength of the dollar, which makes it more
expensive for foreign travelers to visit, and long visa wait times. Inbound
international visitor numbers were not expected to reach 2019 levels until
later this year and foreign visitor spending is not projected to fully recover
until 2026, according to the
U.S. Travel Association.
But those expectations may now be even
harder to reach, travel experts say.
The research firm Tourism
Economics had
originally forecast travel to the United States to grow by 9 percent this year,
but in February, it updated its outlook, expecting inbound travel to decline by
5.1 percent and hotel demand to decline by 0.8 percent in 2025 — the equivalent
of an $18 billion drop in spending. Much of the decline is the result of a
boycott by Canadian travelers. In February,
after President Trump announced tariffs on Canada, the number of Canadians
driving across the border fell by 24 percent compared with the same period in
2024.
More
Foreign Travelers Are Rethinking Travel to the U.S. - The New York Times
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Goldman
Sachs sees Trump tariffs spiking inflation, stunting growth and raising
recession risks
Published
Sun, Mar 30 2025 9:47 PM EDT
With
decision day looming this week for President Donald Trump’s latest round of
tariffs, Goldman Sachs expects aggressive duties from the White House to raise
inflation and unemployment and drag economic growth to a near-standstill.
The
investment bank now expects that tariff rates will jump 15 percentage points,
its previous “risk-case” scenario that now appears more likely when Trump
announces reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday. However, Goldman did note that
product and country exclusions eventually will pull that increase down to 9
percentage points.
When
the new trade moves are enacted, the Goldman economic team led by head of
global investment research Jan Hatzius sees a broad, negative impact on the
economy.
In
a note published on Sunday, the firm said “we continue to believe the risk from
April 2 tariffs is greater than many market participants have previously
assumed.”
Inflation
above goal
On
inflation, the firm sees its preferred core measure, excluding food and energy
prices, hitting 3.5% in 2025, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the prior
forecast and well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.
That
in turn will come with weak economic growth: Just a 0.2% annualized growth rate
in the first quarter and 1% for the full year when measured from the fourth
quarter of 2024 to Q4 of 2025, down 0.5 percentage point from the prior
forecast. In addition, the Wall Street firm now sees unemployment reaching
4.5%, a 0.3 percentage point raise from the previous forecast.
Taken
together, Goldman now expects a 35% chance of recession in the next 12 months,
up from 20% in the prior outlook.
The
forecast paints a growing chance of a
stagflation economy, with low growth and high inflation. The last time the
U.S. saw stagflation was in the late 1970s and early ’80s. Back then, the Paul
Volcker-led Fed dramatically raised interest rates, sending the economy into
recession as the central bank chose fighting inflation over supporting economic
growth.
More
Tariffs
to spike inflation, stunt growth and raise recession risks, Goldman says
US
economy meltdown as stocks tumble in wake of Donald Trump tariffs
29
March 2025
US
stocks on Wall Street fell on Friday amid growing concerns among consumers and
investors about Donald Trump's tariff policy. The S&P 500 dropped 2%, while
the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite slid 2.7%.
However,
US government debt rallied, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield down 0.11
percentage points to 4.26%. "US data is only inflaming stagflation
fears," James Knightley, an economist at investment bank ING, told
the Financial
Times.
"Hot
inflation and cooling consumer spending are trends that are likely to be
intensified by President Trump's aggressive moves on tariffs and government
spending cuts."
Last
week, the US President announced new import taxes of 25% on cars and car parts
coming into the US.
Trump
said the latest tariffs would come into effect on April 2, with charges on
businesses importing vehicles starting over the next days. Taxes on spare parts
are set to start in May or later.
He
claimed that the tariffs would lead to "tremendous growth" for the
industry, and create jobs and investment in the US.
However,
analysts at ING - a Dutch multinational banking and financial services company
- have argued that tariffs introduced by Trump in his first term had no
discernible positive effect on the US economy.
They
wrote: "In 2018, Trump imposed tariffs, particularly on China, but
loopholes allowed some production to be diverted to third-party nations, such
as Vietnam and Korea.
"These
actions failed to generate any meaningful improvement in US manufacturing
performance, with the output volumes actually down 0.25% from where they were
at the beginning of 2018; unemployment levels were unchanged."
They
added that Trump's new tariffs could potentially hit every single American with
an extra $2000 (£1545) in annual costs.
The
US imported about eight million cars last year - accounting for about $240bn
(£186bn) in trade and roughly half of overall sales.
Mexico
is the top supplier of cars to the US, followed by South Korea, Japan, Canada
and Germany.
Trump's
tariff announcement provoked a furious response from world leaders and threats
of retaliation.
Canada's
Prime Minister Mark
Carney promised
a tough response and in a statement on Friday his office said Toronto plans to
implement retaliatory tariffs on US goods next week.
"The
Prime Minister informed the President that his government will implement
retaliatory tariffs to protect Canadian workers and our economy, following the
announcement of additional US trade actions on April 2, 2025," the Prime
Minister's Office said in a press release.
US economy meltdown as stocks tumble in wake of Donald Trump tariffs
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
New plastic
dissolves in the ocean overnight, leaving no microplastics
By Michael Irving March 27, 2025
Plastics
are durable and strong, which is great while they’re being used but frustrating
when they end up in the environment. Scientists at RIKEN in Japan have
developed a new type of plastic that’s just as stable in everyday use but
dissolves quickly in saltwater, leaving behind safe compounds.
The
benefit of plastics is that they’re made with strong covalent bonds that hold
their molecules together, meaning they take a lot of energy to break. This is
why they’re so sturdy, long-lasting and perfect for everything from packaging
to toys.
But
those same strong bonds become a problem after the useful life of a plastic
product is over. That cup you used once and threw away will sit in landfill for
decades, even centuries, before it fully breaks down. And when it does, it
forms microplastic pieces that are turning up in all corners of the natural world,
including our own bodies,
where they wreak havoc on our
health in ways we’re only just beginning to understand.
RIKEN
researchers have now developed a new type of plastic that can work just as well
as the regular stuff when it’s needed, and break down readily into safe
compounds when it’s not. It’s made of what are known as supramolecular
polymers, which have reversible bonds that function like sticky notes that can
be attached, removed and reattached, according to the team.
The
team wanted to make a specific type of supramolecular polymer that would be
strong enough for the usual uses of plastic, but could also be made to break
down quickly when required, under mild conditions and leaving only non-toxic
compounds.
After
screening a range of molecules, the researchers identified a particular
combination that seemed to have the right properties – sodium
hexametaphosphate, which is a common food additive, and monomers based on
guanidinium ions, which are used in fertilizers. When these two compounds are
mixed together in water, they form a viscous material that can be dried to form
plastics.
A
reaction between the two ingredients forms “salt bridges” between the molecules
that make the material strong and flexible, like conventional plastic. However,
when they’re soaked in saltwater, the electrolytes unlock those bonds, and the
material dissolves.
In
practice, the team found that the material was just as strong as normal plastic
during use, and was non-flammable, colorless and transparent. Immersed in
saltwater though, the plastic completely dissolved in about eight and a half
hours.
There’s
one major hurdle with any degradable plastic material of course: what if it
comes into contact with the catalyst for its destruction before you want it to?
A plastic cup is no good if certain liquids can dissolve it, after all.
In
this case, the team found that applying hydrophobic coatings prevented any
early breaking down of the material. When you eventually want to dispose of it,
a simple scratch on the surface was enough to let the saltwater back in,
allowing the material to dissolve just as quickly as the non-coated sheets.
While
some biodegradable plastics can still leave behind harmful microplastics, this
material breaks down into nitrogen and phosphorus, which are useful nutrients
for plants and microbes.
That
said, too much of these can be disruptive to the environment as well, so the
team suggests the best process might be to do the bulk of the recycling in
specialized plants, where the resulting elements can be retrieved for future
use.
But if
some of it does end up in the ocean, it will be far less harmful, and possibly
even beneficial, compared to current plastic waste.
New plastic
dissolves in the ocean overnight, leaving no microplastics
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
We've
been the foolish country for so long with this free trade, but it's not free
trade because it's - you know, just doesn't work. I mean, it's not working. You
look at the deficits we have.
Donald Trump.
