Special Update 08/03/2025 Uncertainty. Who Really Started The Ukraine War.

Baltic Dry Index. 1400 +114            Brent Crude 70.38

Spot Gold 2909                  U S 2 Year Yield 3.99 +0.03

US Federal Debt. 36.568 trillion.

Some ideas are so stupid that only intellectuals believe them.

George Orwell.

In the stock casinos, a bad week as Trump policy uncertainty grew. The tariff wars grew too, albeit with a one month delay to goods covered by the Trump negotiated USMCA trade pact.

Uncertainty, is a killer of corporate and consumer planning and with it, stock casino optimism and the global economy, albeit renewed global warfare spending will eventually kick in later in 2025.

WW3 anyone?

S&P 500 closes higher in volatile trading Friday, but index posts worst week since September: Live updates

Updated Fri, Mar 7 2025 4:58 PM EST

The S&P 500 regained some ground on Friday, but the index still posted its worst week in several months as the salvo of trade policy actions unnerved investors.

The broad index rose 0.55% to 5,770.20, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.7% to 18,196.22. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 222.64 points, or 0.52%, to end at 42,801.72.

Friday saw volatile trading, with the Dow falling more than 400 points at session lows before an afternoon rally. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both fell more than 1% at their worst points in the trading day.

Despite Friday’s recovery, the S&P 500 notched its worst week since September with a loss of 3.1%. The Dow, meanwhile, fell 2.4% this week. The Nasdaq Composite slid 3.5% on the week, during which it had entered correction territory, which means the tech-heavy index finished a session 10% off its recent high.

Investors shook off a weaker-than-expected jobs report released Friday, which raised further concerns about an economic softening and briefly sent Treasury yields lower. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 151,000 jobs in February, less than the consensus forecast for 170,000 from economists polled by Dow Jones. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.1%.

That came as stocks have been on a roller-coaster ride this week with President Donald Trump’s tariff policies worrying investors about future U.S. growth and inflation. Trump said on Thursday that a swath of goods from Canada and Mexico that are covered by the North American trade agreement known as the USMCA would be exempt from the announced duties until April 2.

This move effectively walked back much of the original plan for levies on the two countries, along with China. But the market still sold off this week, with uncertainty mounting amid constant updates and a lack of clarity on what to expect longer term.

“The market does not like uncertainty,” said Glen Smith, chief investment officer at GDS Wealth Management. “While we expect the market to find its footing and recover from the tariff-driven selloff, investors should brace for continued choppiness until these uncertainties clear.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged to CNBC on Friday that the economy could be starting to “roll a bit.” However, he said that was due to a transition from the policies of the previous administration. Bessent said any tariffs implemented would be a “one-time price adjustment” and not spark lasting inflation.

Stock market news for March 7, 2025

European markets end lower with tariffs, U.S. economy in focus; Luxury stocks sell off

Updated Fri, Mar 7 2025 12:02 PM EST

European markets closed lower Friday, rounding off a volatile week marked by whipsawing policy on U.S. tariffs, the latest rate cut from the European Central Bank, German fiscal reforms and a regional defense spending boost.

Investors were also reacting to key jobs data out of the U.S., which showed nonfarm payrolls rose by a less-than-expected 151,000 in February.

The regional Stoxx 600 index closed 0.46% lower in London, marking its first losing week this year.

The Stoxx 600 has jumped between losses and gains this week amid unfolding geopolitical developments and corporate earnings.

Luxury stocks were among the worst performers, with Richemont and Burberry down over 5% and almost 7%, respectively, as the Stoxx Europe Luxury 10 index dropped 2.7%. The sector is expected to face challenges from U.S. import tariffs which could hit U.S. consumer demand and lead to a rise in prices.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday granted temporary tariff exemptions for around 50% of Mexican imports and 38% of Canadian imports until April 2. The move came a day after Trump granted a one-month tariff exemption for automakers, expected to be one of the most affected sectors; and just two days after sweeping new duties came into effect.

In Europe, market watchers on Friday were also unpacking the ECB’s latest quarter-point rate cut, inflation and growth projections, and messaging.

The euro area’s central bank said monetary policy was becoming “meaningfully less restrictive,” suggesting it may exercise more caution across its next meetings.

“While forecasts still show clear direction, [ECB] communication doesn’t,” analysts at Bank of America Global Research said Thursday.

Also affecting markets this week were promises of higher defense spending across Europe, with the Stoxx Aerospace and Defence Index up almost 6% this week. The European Union agreed to higher defense spending across the bloc.

German stocks, meanwhile, rallied on hopes of stronger economic growth and more spending on both defense and infrastructure after leading politicians stuck a “historic” deal on fiscal reform.

European stocks open to close: Trump tariffs, UK house prices

In other news.

US economic worries mount as Trump implements tariffs, cuts workforce and freezes spending

8 March 2025

With his flurry of tariffs, government layoffs and spending freezes, there are growing worries President Donald Trump may be doing more to harm the U.S. economy than to fix it.

The labor market remains healthy with a 4.1% unemployment rate and 151,000 jobs added in February, and Trump likes to point to investment commitments by Apple and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company to show that he's delivering results.

But Friday's employment report also found that the number of people stuck working part-time because of economic circumstances jumped by 460,000 last month. In the leisure and hospitality sectors that reflect consumers having extra money to spend, 16,000 jobs were lost. And the federal government reduced its payrolls by 10,000 in a potential harbinger of the alarm being sounded by the stock market, consumer confidence and other measures of where the economy is headed.

Since January, the economic policy uncertainty index has spiked 41% to a level, 334.5, that in the past signaled a recession. Nicholas Bloom, a Stanford University economist and co-developer of the uncertainty index, said it's unclear how this will play out, but he's worried.

“I have an increasing fear we will enter into what may become known as the ‘Trump recession,'" he said. "Ongoing policy turbulence and a tariff war could tip the U.S. economy into its first recession in five years.” That last recession occurred under Trump because of the coronavirus pandemic.

For his part, Trump seems comfortable with the uncertainty that he's generating, saying that any financial pain from import taxes is a mere “disruption” that will eventually lead to more factories relocating to the United States and stronger growth.

If Trump's gambit succeeds, the Republican would cement his reputation as an unconventional leader who proved doubters wrong. But if Trump's tariffs backfire, much of the price would be paid by everyday Americans who could suffer from job losses, lower wages, higher inflation and, possibly, an injured sense of national pride.

In an interview to air Sunday on Fox News' “Sunday Morning Futures,” Trump was pressed to provide some clarity on his tariffs agenda that has caused uncertainty to fester. The president largely hedged his answer and blamed the 6% drop in the stock market over the past two weeks on “big globalists.”

“You know, the tariffs could go up as time goes by, and they may go up and, you know, I don’t know if it’s predictability,” the president said.

The White House maintains that Friday's jobs report showed the administration's strategy is working because manufacturers added 10,000 jobs. Of the manufacturing gains, 8,900 jobs came from the auto sector, recovering some of the industry's job losses in January. The White House also suggested that the loss of leisure and hospitality jobs was the result of flu season and people having depleted savings and credit card debt because of President Joe Biden's term.

“I thought it was a really, really impressive jobs report,” Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, said of Friday's numbers.

Hassett said the additional factory jobs were the result of companies “on-shoring” work because of the coming tariffs.

“This is the first of many reports that are going to look like this,” Hassett said with regard to the hiring in the industrial sector.

The stock market selloff raises doubts about whether tariffs will create the promised jobs.

“Markets anticipate,” said John Silvia, CEO of Dynamic Economic Strategy. “The turn down the dark alley of tariffs signals higher inflation, slower economic growth and a weaker U.S. dollar. It is an economic horror movie in slow motion.”

----There were multiple signs of uncertainty and concerns about the tariffs in the Federal Reserve’s beige book, a collection of anecdotes from hundreds of businesses that the Fed releases eight times a year.

Published Wednesday, the beige book included 47 references to uncertainty, up from just 17 in the previous edition in January.

“Many businesses noted heightened economic uncertainty and expressed concern about tariffs,” the Fed’s New York branch reported. “Looking ahead, businesses were notably less optimistic.”

“This is the perfect storm for businesses,” said Brian Bethune, an economist at Boston College. “How can you possibly plan anything in this environment?”

More

US economic worries mount as Trump implements tariffs, cuts workforce and freezes spending

Powell says Fed is awaiting ‘greater clarity’ on Trump policies before making next move on rates

Published Fri, Mar 7 2025 12:30 PM EST Updated Fri, Mar 7 2025 2:48 PM EST

NEW YORK — Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday that the central bank can wait to see how President Donald Trump’s aggressive policy actions play out before it moves again on interest rates.

With markets nervous over Trump’s proposals for tariffs and other issues, Powell reiterated statements he and his colleagues have made recently counseling patience on monetary policy amid the high level of uncertainty.

The White House “is in the process of implementing significant policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation,” he said in a speech for the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum. “It is the net effect of these policy changes that will matter for the economy and for the path of monetary policy.”

Noting that “uncertainty around the changes and their likely effects remains high” Powell said the Fed is “focused on separating the signal from the noise as the outlook evolves. We do not need to be in a hurry, and are well positioned to wait for greater clarity.”

The comments seem at least somewhat at odds with growing market expectations for interest rate cuts this year.

As markets have been roiled by Trump’s shifting positions on his agenda — specifically his tariff plans — traders have priced in the equivalent of three quarter percentage point reductions by the end of the year, starting in June, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.

However, Powell’s comments indicate that the Fed will be in a wait-and-see mode before mapping out further policy easing.

More

Powell says Fed is awaiting 'greater clarity' on Trump policies before making next move on rates

Finally, who really started the Ukraine war? A surprising video answer from the Cato Institute, but we’re not allowed to know this. Approx. 17 minutes.

Coup: "The Extent of the Obama Administration’s Meddling in Ukraine’s Politics Was BREATHTAKING"

Coup: "The Extent of the Obama Administration’s Meddling in Ukraine’s Politics Was BREATHTAKING" : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive

The past was erased, the erasure was forgotten, the lie became the truth.

George Orwell.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.        

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation/recession now needs an entire section of its own.

‘Very concerned’ about Europe’s struggling economy, European Central Bank policymaker Centeno says

Published Fri, Mar 7 2025 6:54 AM EST

Europe’s struggling economy has economists worried — and senior European Central Bank policymaker Mário Centeno, echoes that view.

“I am very concerned about the European economy,” Centeno, who is also governor of the Bank of Portugal, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday.

On Thursday, the ECB revised its gross domestic product expectations for the euro area to 0.9% growth in 2025, down from a previously projected 1.1% expansion. The euro area’s seasonally adjusted GDP most recently eked out a 0.1% increase in the fourth quarter.

Centeno linked the downward growth outlook revision to reduced exports and investments, echoing the ECB statement.

“Special investment is, I think, quite subdued in Europe. It will take four years for us to go back to the 2023 level of investment in the private sector, six years in terms of housing investment [and we will be] going back to 2022 levels only in 2028,” he explained.

“These are numbers that raise some questions about the recovery in Europe,” Centeno added.

Concerns about Europe’s sluggish economy have accelerated in recent months, following repeated threats of tariffs from the U.S. administration. U.S. President Donald Trump has already introduced duties on imports from several key U.S. trading partners and has indicated that Europe could be the next target.

But there is frequent policy movement in the U.S.′ position, with pauses, delays and exemptions aplenty as negotiations and pledges of reciprocal measures from the targeted countries continue.

“Tariffs are a tax. They are a tax on both consumption and production, and we do know that taxes have a very clear impact on the economy,” Centeno said Friday, warning that ultimately no one would gain from a tariff war.

More

ECB's Centeno 'very concerned' about Europe's struggling economy

2025 Recession Risk Is Increasing According To Multiple Indicators

Mar 05, 2025, 02:59pm EST

Several indicators are hinting that recession risk for the U.S. economy might be greater than previously feared. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s model recently suggested that economic growth might be negative in Q1 2025. In addition, parts of the yield curve have re-inverted and consumer confidence declined in February. Prediction market Kalshi is currently estimating a 40% chance of recession in 2025; that’s up sharply in recent weeks. Still, a 40% chance still implies that a recession is most likely avoided. This combination of signals is unlikely to be sufficient to predict that a recession is coming in 2025, but the risks are currently rising.

A Nowcast For Declining GDP Growth

Recent nowcasts for Q1 2025 gross domestic product growth dipped into negative territory in late February. That’s according to the latest estimates of the Atlanta Fed’s model that weights incoming economic data to forecast growth. Of course, the model is volatile and may change again as more data comes in, but it currently suggests declining growth in Q1.

The model examines a host of data, but the shift may, in part, be due to increasing imports of industrial supplies for January as reported by the United States Census Bureau. That could be as firms bring in extra inventories in advance to pre-empt rising import costs from tariffs. Should that proves to be a one-off move in trade patterns, it is perhaps less of a concern. Trade patterns are sometimes noisy and less meaningful for economic analysis. For example, alternate model from the New York Federal Reserve continues to point to healthy growth in Q1.

More

2025 Recession Risk Is Increasing According To Multiple Indicators

China to impose retaliatory tariffs on some Canadian products as trade war heats up

Published Sat, Mar 8 2025 12:09 AM EST

China on Saturday announced retaliatory tariffs on some Canadian agricultural goods, hitting back after Ottawa slapped import duties on Chinese-made electric vehicles and steel and aluminum products.

Beijing said a 100% tariff would be imposed on Canadian rapeseed oil, oil cakes and peas, while a 25% levy would be placed on aquatic products and pork originating in Canada.

The tariffs are scheduled to come into force from March 20, according to a statement from China’s Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council.

The measures come amid a brewing global trade war, following several tariff announcements by the U.S., China, Canada and Mexico in recent months.

Canada imposed 100% import tariffs on Chinese-made EVs from Oct. 1 last year, following in the footsteps of the U.S. and the European Union over concerns related to unfair competition.

Ottawa also applied a 25% tariff on imports of steel and aluminum products from China, which came into effect from Oct. 15.

“Canada’s unilateral imposition of tariffs disregards objective facts and World Trade Organization rules, is a typical trade protectionist practice, constitutes a discriminatory measure against China, seriously infringes on China’s legitimate rights and interests, and undermines China-Canada economic and trade relations,” China’s customs authorities said in a statement on a Saturday, according to a Google translation.

Trade war: China to slap retaliatory tariffs on some Canadian products

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Today, an aspirin a day keeps cancer away?

‘Eureka’ moment as scientists discover common drug stops some cancers spreading

5 March 025

Scientists have described the “Eureka moment” when they discovered how aspirin may prevent some cancers from spreading.

Building on previous studies, their findings suggest that aspirin bolsters the immune system, enabling it to identify and eliminate dangerous cancer cells more effectively.

Ongoing clinical trials are investigating aspirin's potential to prevent cancer recurrence in patients.

However, experts caution against self-medicating with aspirin, emphasising the importance of consulting a doctor due to potential side effects like stomach bleeding.

The new work was published in the journal Nature and funded by the Medical Research Council and Wellcome Trust.

Led by the University of Cambridge, it suggests a path for aspirin to become a cancer treatment, alongside the development of more effective drugs to prevent cancer spreading.

Researchers screened 810 genes in mice and found 15 that had an effect on cancer spread.

In particular, they found that mice lacking a gene which produces a protein called ARHGEF1 were less likely to have cancer spread to the lungs and liver.

The experts discovered that ARHGEF1 suppresses a type of immune cell called a T cell, which is important for recognising and killing metastatic (spreading to other parts of the body) cancer cells.

They found that ARHGEF1 is switched on when T cells are exposed to a clotting factor called thromboxane A2 (TXA2) – this was an unexpected finding for the scientists.

TXA2 is produced by platelets in the blood and aspirin is already known to cut the production of TXA2.

The research found that aspirin can prevent cancers from spreading by decreasing TXA2 – releasing T cells from being suppressed so they can kill cancer cells.

In mice given aspirin, the frequency of metastases was reduced compared with mice not on the drug, and this was dependent on releasing T cells from suppression by TXA2.

Professor Rahul Roychoudhuri, from the University of Cambridge, who led the study, said: “Despite advances in cancer treatment, many patients with early stage cancers receive treatments, such as surgical removal of the tumour, which have the potential to be curative, but later relapse due to the eventual growth of micrometastases – cancer cells that have seeded other parts of the body but remain in a latent state.

----Dr Jie Yang, also from the University of Cambridge, said: “It was a Eureka moment when we found TXA2 was the molecular signal that activates this suppressive effect on T cells.

“Before this, we had not been aware of the implication of our findings in understanding the anti-metastatic activity of aspirin.

“It was an entirely unexpected finding which sent us down quite a different path of inquiry than we had anticipated.

“Aspirin, or other drugs that could target this pathway, have the potential to be less expensive than antibody-based therapies, and therefore more accessible globally.”

Researchers are now working with Professor Ruth Langley at University College London, who is leading the Add-Aspirin clinical trial, to find out if aspirin can stop or delay early stage cancers from coming back.

This trial, supported by Cancer Research UK, includes patients with breast, oesophageal, stomach, prostate and bowel cancer.

Professor Langley said of the new work: “This is an important discovery. It will enable us to interpret the results of ongoing clinical trials and work out who is most likely to benefit from aspirin after a cancer diagnosis.

More

‘Eureka’ moment as scientists discover common drug stops some cancers spreading

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Is DeepSeek's AI a brand-new secondhand ChatGPT? A "unanimous jury" rules its AI-generated text matches OpenAI models by 74%

March 5, 2025

Chinese AI startup DeepSeek burst into the AI scene earlier this year with its ultra-cost-effective, R1 V3-powered AI model. Consequently, it raised concerns among investors, especially after it surpassed OpenAI's o1 reasoning model across a wide range of benchmarks, including math, science, and coding at a fraction of the cost.

While DeepSeek researchers claimed the company spent approximately $6 million to train its cost-effective model, multiple reports suggest that it cut corners by using Microsoft and OpenAI's copyrighted content to train its model.

Another report claimed that the Chinese AI startup spent up to $1.6 billion on hardware, including 50,000 NVIDIA Hopper GPUs. OpenAI lodged a complaint, indicating the company used to train its models to train its cost-effective AI model.

The ChatGPT maker claimed DeepSeek used "distillation" to train its R1 model. For context, distillation is the process whereby a company, in this case, DeepSeek leverages preexisting model's output (OpenAI) to train a new model.

As such, the company reduces the exorbitant amount of money required to develop and train an AI model. And as it now seems, OpenAI's accusations seemingly hold some water.

A new study by AI detection firm Copyleaks reveals that DeepSeek's AI-generated outputs are reminiscent of OpenAI's ChatGPT. Perhaps more concerning, the study'd findings revealed a 74.2% resemblance (via Forbes).

Did DeepSeek train its AI model using OpenAI's copyrighted content? The tell-tale signs suggest as much

Copyleaks uses screening tech and algorithm classifiers to identify text generate by AI models. For this specific study, the classifiers unanimously voted that DeepSeek's outputs were generated using OpenAI's models.

Interestingly, the AI detection firm has used this approach to identify text generated by AI models, including OpenAI, Claude, Gemini, Llama, which it distinguished as unique to each model. Classifiers use unanimous voting as standard practice to reduce false positives.

Shai Nisan, head of data science at Copyleaks indicated:

“Our research utilized a ‘unanimous jury’ approach and identified a strong stylistic similarity between DeepSeek and OpenAI’s models, which wasn’t found with other inspected models."

While investors had begun raising concern about the large amounts invested in developing and training AI models, the study's findings raises questions about DeepSeek's AI model training and development and whether its approach was truly cost-effective.

More

Is DeepSeek's AI a brand-new secondhand ChatGPT? A "unanimous jury" rules its AI-generated text matches OpenAI models by 74%

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

This weekend’s music diversion.  Really great American music.  A blast from my past, when I used to listen to this great band in NYC in the 80s when they played in Red Blazer 2, every Tuesday from 8pm. Within walking distance from my flat on E 87th Street between Lexington and Park.

Visiting guests from USA, UK, and Europe always enjoyed dining there as my guest while VG and his most exceptional  band performed bringing back the lively music of the 20s and early 30s.

Approx. 3 minutes and 5 minutes.

"Putt'in On The Ritz" - Vince Giordano and the Nighthawks

"Putt'in On The Ritz" - Vince Giordano and the Nighthawks

Vince Giordano and the Nighthawks - Who's Sorry Now?

Vince Giordano and the Nighthawks - Who's Sorry Now?

But, 75 year old poor Anglo-Scot, Graeme, also likes this sort of music too.  My a apologies for the accompanying pictures. We can all be what we want to be, if open minded.

Sacris Solemnis- DOMENICO ZIPOLI ~Música del Archivo Musical de Chiquitos (S.XVIII)

Sacris Solemnis- DOMENICO ZIPOLI ~Música del Archivo Musical de Chiquitos (S.XVIII) - YouTube

Handel: Solomon-Nightingale chorus.

Handel: Solomon-Nightingale chorus - YouTube

This weekend’s chess diversion.  Approx 10 minutes.

Awoken From his Slumber" || Shankland vs Wei Yi || Prague International Chess Festival (2025)

"Awoken From his Slumber" || Shankland vs Wei Yi || Prague International Chess Festival (2025)

With a foursome hit in Graeme’s music. this weekend no weekend final diversion.  

However much you deny the truth, the truth goes on existing.

George Orwell.

ECB Cuts Again. USA Jobs Day. Trump Tariffs Smash Stocks.

Baltic Dry Index. 1286 +58         Brent Crude 69.53

Spot Gold 2910             US 2 Year Yield 3.96  -0.03  

US Federal Debt. 36.564 trillion!

The people will believe what the media tells them they believe.

George Orwell.

Trump’s tariff flip-flops are bad for stocks priced to perfection in outer space.

But tariff uncertainty, Federal firings, tariff retaliations and a now unpredictable US foreign policy, are all bad for the global economy.

Unless things change, unlikely, a new global recession looms over 2025, only partially to be offset later in 2025 by increased warfare spending in Europe and China.

Below, a nervous opening, as US stock casinos await the latest US jobs report from the Bureau of Lying Labor Statistics. (With Trump in the White House rather than Biden will the BLS report accurately to try to undermine President Trump?)

Japan’s 30-year bond yield hits highest level since 2008; Nikkei leads Asia losses

Updated Fri, Mar 7 2025 11:06 PM EST

Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell on Friday, with yields on long-term Japanese government bonds hitting levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis.

The moves in Asia markets mirrored losses on Wall Street after U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff concessions failed to calm investors.

Traders were also worried by economic data from the U.S., which raised alarm that Trump’s policies could hinder the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book and the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing reading both indicated fear of rising input costs because of the tariffs.

Back in Asia, customs data showed China’s exports in the January to February period rose 2.3% in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, significantly undershooting expectations of a 5% increase in a Reuters poll.

That marked the slowest growth since April last year when exports increased by just 1.5% on year, according to LSEG data.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 led regional losses, down 2%, while the broad-based Topix fell 1.51%.

South Korea’s Kospi was 0.44% lower, with the small-cap Kosdaq down 0.43% in choppy trade.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 traded down 1.71%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was last seen up 0.56%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 index was down 0.14%.

Indian’s benchmark Nifty 50 began the day 0.12% higher, while the BSE Sensex index was flat.

Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes fell, with the Nasdaq Composite falling 2.61% to end in correction territory, which is when an index falls 10% from a recent high.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.99%, while the S&P 500 tumbled 1.78%.

Asia markets live: China trade, JGB yields, tariffs

Trump’s Tariff Flip-Flops Help Send Stocks Lower

March 6, 2025 at 10:32 PM GMT

On Thursday, Donald Trump signed a few more executive orders. Among the scores he’s churned out since taking office, these were unique, since they partially reversed orders from just two days ago. 

It was the latest backpedal by the White House in the face of furious fallout both at home and abroad to his 25% sanctions against Canada and Mexico. With markets plummeting, automakers yowling and Canada pounding its chest, Trump announced he would exempt some goods from both countries, but only for a month. If that sounds familiar, it’s because this is the second month-long delay Trump granted on his own tariffs.

Today’s announcement came after Trump spoke with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who has sought to negotiate with the 78-year-old president while Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau struck a more strident tone. The Trump administration did take pains to say its other threatened tariffs would move forward as planned in the coming weeks and months, but after weeks of threats, little follow through and now reversals, Wall Street has apparently decided the only safe thing to do is sell. The S&P 500 fell to a four-month low. —Jordan Parker Erb and David E. Rovella

Trump’s Tariff Flip-Flops Help Send Stocks Down Again - Bloomberg

Stock futures rise after Thursday’s big sell-off; key jobs report looms: Live updates

Updated Fri, Mar 7 2025 8:51 PM EST

Stock futures were higher on Thursday evening as traders sought to look past U.S. trade policy worries that have rattled the market this week. They also anticipated a big payrolls report due Friday morning.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 96 points, or 0.2%. S&P 500 futures gained nearly 0.4%, while Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.5%.

The action follows a rocky session on Thursday, with the major averages going back into sell-off mode as the latest concessions on President Donald Trump’s tariff policies failed to calm investors. The blue-chip Dow lost more than 400 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell into correction territory, ending the session more than 10% off its high.

Stocks have been on a roller-coaster ride as Trump’s tariff policies have worried investors over future U.S. growth. While Trump said on Thursday that a swath of goods from Canada and Mexico that are covered by the North American trade agreement known as USMCA would be exempt from the announced duties until April 2, that wasn’t enough to spur a recovery rally similar to the one seen on Wednesday.

“Markets are all over the place trying to price tariff impacts, which is really hard to do when the goal post moves, disappears, and morphs by the second,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group.

This latest market rout put the three major averages on course for their worst week since September 2024. The S&P 500 is off 3.6% week to date, while the 30-stock Dow is down 2.9%. The Nasdaq is the underperformer of the period, down 4.1% so far this week.

February’s nonfarm payrolls report will be the next big catalyst on investors’ radar, giving markets further insight into the health of the economy. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast growth of 170,000 jobs, and expect the unemployment rate held steady at 4%.

Stock market today: Live updates

Cryptocurrencies decline as Trump’s U.S. bitcoin reserve plan falls short of expectations

Published Thu, Mar 6 2025 10:16 PM EST

Cryptocurrencies fell Thursday night after President Donald Trump signed an executive order creating a strategic bitcoin reserve for the United States and, separately, a “digital asset stockpile.”

The price of bitcoin was last lower by 3% at $87,586.86, according to Coin Metrics. Shortly after the news broke, it fell to as low as $84,688.13.

Earlier losses in other coins – specifically those that rallied at the beginning of the week after Trump said they would be included in the strategy – also eased. Ether was down 2%, trading at $2,184.08. XRP and Solana’s SOL token retreated 1% and 3%, respectively. Cardano’s ADA token tumbled 13%.

White House crypto and AI czar David Sacks detailed in a post on X that the bitcoin reserve will include bitcoin already owned by the U.S. government that it seized from past law enforcement actions – a move, he emphasized, that will “not cost taxpayers a dime.” The U.S. currently owns more than 198,000 bitcoins worth about $17 billion, according to Arkham.

The stockpile of other coins will include “digital assets other than bitcoin forfeited in criminal or civil proceedings.” Sacks said the government will not acquire additional assets for it “beyond those obtained through forfeiture proceedings.” Arkham data shows the U.S. government owns about 56 ether tokens worth almost $119 million. It does not list XRP or the Solana or Cardano tokens.

Investors initially dumped their coins at the notion of the U.S. having no immediate planned purchases of bitcoin, per the order, against the backdrop of major weakness in equities.

“It is good news, but not what the market wanted in the short term,” said Steven Lubka, head of private clients and family offices at Swan Bitcoin. “People were hoping for near-term buy pressure.”

More

Cryptocurrencies fall after Trump officially establishes U.S. bitcoin reserve

In other news.

China’s exports miss forecasts as U.S. tariffs hit, imports record sharpest decline since July 2023

Published Thu, Mar 6 2025 10:10 PM EST

China’s exports growth slowed more than expected at the start of the year while imports plunged, as lackluster domestic demand and U.S. tariffs challenge Beijing’s bid to bolster sluggish growth.

Exports in the January to February period rose 2.3% in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, data from the customs authority showed Friday, significantly undershooting expectations of a 5% increase in a Reuters poll.

That marked the slowest growth since April last year when exports increased by just 1.5% on year, according to LSEG data.

Imports surprised markets by declining 8.4% year-on-year in the first two months of 2025, the sharpest fall since July 2023, LESG data showed. Analysts had expected imports to expand 1% year-on-year.

The sharp contraction in imports showed the “last quarter’s stimulus-led pick-up in domestic demand has already partially reversed,” Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, said in a note.

Chinese exporters have been rushing to front-load outbound shipments since late last year on anticipation of more tariffs as U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the White House.

Trump’s first round of 10% tariff hikes on Chinese goods took effect on Feb 4., followed by another 10% tariff increase kicking in just one month later, taking the cumulative levies to 20%.

China has retaliated with additional tariffs on select U.S. goods, including energy and agricultural products, while restricting exports of certain critical minerals that the U.S. needs.

“As firms expect further mutual tariffs between the US and China, there is still some demand for front-loading,” said Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis. Due to a higher base last year, coupled with rising tariffs, he expects China’s foreign trade to remain under pressure in the coming months.

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China’s exports grew 2.3% on year in Jan-Feb, well short of estimates

European Central Bank cuts rates again, says policy is becoming ‘meaningfully less restrictive’

Published Thu, Mar 6 2025 8:15 AM EST

The European Central Bank on Thursday cut interest rates by 25 basis points and updated the language in its decision to say monetary policy was becoming “meaningfully less restrictive.”

The cut brings the ECB’s deposit facility rate, its key rate, to 2.5% — a move that markets had widely priced in before the announcement.

The central bank’s six rate cuts over the past nine months have come amid lackluster economic growth in the region, and as the specter of tariffs on EU imports to the U.S. looms large.

“Monetary policy is becoming meaningfully less restrictive, as the interest rate cuts are making new borrowing less expensive for firms and households and loan growth is picking up,” the central bank said in a statement Thursday.

Euro zone headline inflation remains below the 3% mark, despite picking up in the last few months of 2024.

Data published earlier this week showed that inflation in the region eased to 2.4% in February, down from January’s reading but coming in slightly higher than expected. So-called core inflation — which strips out food, energy, alcohol and tobacco costs — as well as services inflation also dipped after proving sticky for several months.

The euro area’s seasonally adjusted gross domestic product, meanwhile, eked out a 0.1% increase in the fourth quarter, the latest reading from statistics agency Eurostat showed.

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European Central Bank interest rate decision, March 2025

Walmart asks China suppliers for price cuts on Trump tariffs, Bloomberg News reports

March 6, 2025 10:14 AM GMT

March 6 (Reuters) - Walmart (WMT.N), opens new tab has asked some Chinese suppliers for major price cuts, with the U.S. retail giant's efforts to shift the burden of President Donald Trump's tariffs facing strong push back from firms in the Asian nation, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday.

Certain suppliers, including makers of kitchenware and clothing, have been asked to lower their prices by as much as 10% per round of tariffs, likely shouldering the full cost of Trump's duties, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter.

According to the report, few have accepted. Suppliers' margins are already razor thin due to Walmart procuring goods cheaply in order to maintain its competitive advantage.

The retailer initially requested price reductions from manufacturers when Trump's first round of tariffs on China took effect in early February, with the request for additional cuts coming later the same month when he threatened to double duties, the report said.

Walmart did not immediately respond to a Reuters' request for comment.

Last month, the U.S. retailer forecast sales and profit for the current year below expectations, citing the need for caution in navigating an uncertain geopolitical landscape cast by high interest rates and Trump's tariffs.

Walmart asks China suppliers for price cuts on Trump tariffs, Bloomberg News reports | Reuters

Tesla sales in Germany slump in February, in line with European markets

5 March 2025

(Reuters) - Tesla car sales in Germany fell by 76% in February, data showed on Wednesday, adding to the collapse in sales of Elon Musk's EV brand across Europe in what could be a loyalty test for the close ally of U.S. President Donald Trump.

Tesla sales were down 24% in the Netherlands, 42% in Sweden, 48% in both Norway and Denmark, 45% in France, 55% in Italy, 10% in Spain and 53% in Portugal, official data showed this week.

Outside Europe, Australia reported a 66% drop in Tesla registrations in the month, while the brand's worldwide sales of cars produced in China were down 49% due to intense pressure from Chinese rivals.

Britain bucked the trend, reporting a 21% jump in Tesla sales last month but that lagged a 42% overall rise in battery electric vehicles sales.

According to Germany's road traffic agency, Tesla sold 1,429 cars in Germany, a decline of 76%, an even bigger decline than the 60% drop in January. Overall, sales of electric vehicles rose 30.8% to 35,949 in Germany.

Musk's support of far-right parties in Europe, including for Germany's AfD that came second in last month's national elections, appears to have hurt Tesla's sales on the continent, which were down 45% in January from a year earlier.

Industry data showed new car sales in Britain fell 1% in February, despite growing demand for EVs which now account for one in four new cars sold.

Chinese automakers extended gains in the UK, with newcomer Chery selling 1,244 cars, more than BYD's 1,177.

Tesla sales in Germany slump in February, in line with European markets

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Reeves’s jobs tax becomes ‘ticking time bomb’

6 March 2025

Rachel Reeves has one month to scrap her “ticking time bomb” jobs tax or risk a slowdown in economic growth, the shadow chancellor has warned.

Labour’s plans to increase national insurance contributions (NICs) for employers will take effect on April 6, the first day of the new tax year.

Writing for The Telegraph, Mel Stride urged her to cancel the tax increase, which he said would “further decimate jobs, stunt economic growth, and escalate inflation” for the rest of the year.

Businesses are concerned the planned 1.2 per cent increase in employers’ NICs will impose hundreds of thousands of pounds in additional costs each year, driving up prices and causing job losses.

Under the plans, employers will pay a rate of 15 per cent of their employees’ wage in national insurance, up from 13.8 per cent.

At the same time, the threshold at which businesses must pay the tax will be lowered to £5,000, from £9,100, dragging many low-paid employees into the NICs bracket for the first time.

Hospitality bosses warned the policy will affect bar staff and waiters among the hardest of any sector and may lead to the closure of pubs.

The Office for Budget Responsibility has suggested the policy change will lead to a 2 per cent increase in payroll costs for businesses.

Mr Stride wrote: “This is not just another tax increase.

“It’s a ticking time bomb that threatens to further decimate jobs, stunt economic growth, and escalate inflation – making an already difficult economic situation far worse.”

He added: “A 1.2 per cent increase to employers’ National Insurance contributions might not sound a lot, but as an entrepreneur I can tell you it’s a significant sum that will see jobs cut, wages stagnate, investment plans shelved, prices rise and businesses fold.”

The Conservatives have offered to support the Government in cancelling the NICs increase if they bring it to a vote in the House of Commons.

The tax increase is expected to raise between £23.8 billion and £25.7 billion a year for the Treasury, financing many of Labour’s biggest spending pledges since taking office last year.

But Mr Stride said the money raised will be swallowed up by increased government borrowing costs.

“Thanks to the Chancellor’s decision to also ramp up borrowing, the money raised by her Jobs Tax will be swallowed up by higher spending on debt interest – not spent on the public’s priorities but poured down the drain,” he said.

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Reeves’s jobs tax becomes ‘ticking time bomb’

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Today, something different but promising.

Scientists discover new part of the immune system

6 March 2025

A new part of the immune system has been discovered and it is a goldmine of potential antibiotics, scientists have said.

They've shown a part of the body known to recycle proteins has a secret mode that can spew out an arsenal of bacteria-killing chemicals.

The researchers in Israel say it transforms our understanding of how we are protected against infection.

And gives a new place to look for antibiotics to tackle the growing problem of superbugs that resist our current drugs.

The discovery centres on the proteasome – a tiny structure that is found in every cell of the body.

Its main role is to chop up old proteins into smaller chunks so they can be recycled to make new ones.

But a series of experiments, detailed in the journal Nature, external, shows the proteasome detects when a cell has been infected by bacteria.

It then changes structure and role. It starts transforming old proteins into weapons that can rip open the outer layer of bacteria to kill them.

Prof Yifat Merbl, from the Weizmann Institute of Science, told me: "This is really exciting, because we never knew that this was happening.

"We discovered a novel mechanism of immunity that is allowing us to have a defense against bacterial infection.

"It's happening throughout our body in all the cells, and generates a whole new class of potential natural antibiotics."

The research team went through a process they called "dumpster diving" to find these natural antibiotics.

They were tested on bacteria growing in the laboratory and on mice with pneumonia and sepsis. The researchers said they were getting results comparable to some established antibiotics.

And when the researchers took cells in the laboratory and disabled the proteasome they were far easier to infect with bacteria like Salmonella.

Prof Daniel Davis, the head of life sciences and an immunologist at Imperial College London, said the findings were "extremely provocative and very interesting" as they changed our understanding of how our body fights infection.

"What's really exciting about this, is it's a totally undiscovered process by which anti-germ molecules are made inside our cells, it feels profoundly important and surprising."

But he cautioned that turning this into a new source of antibiotics is an idea that "still needs to be tested" and that will take time.

More than a million people a year are estimated to die from infections that are resistant to drugs like antibiotics.

But despite the need, there has been a lack of research into developing new antibiotics to keep up with demand.

Against that bleak background, having somewhere new to look is a source of optimism for some scientists.

Dr Lindsey Edwards, a senior lecturer in microbiology at King's College London, told the BBC: "It's a potential goldmine for new antibiotics, that's quite exciting.

"In previous years it's been digging up soil [to find new antibiotics], it is wild that it's something we have within us, but comes down to having the technology to be able to detect these things."

She also says there could be fewer issues with developing them into drugs because they are already products of the human body so the "safety side of it might be a lot easier".

Scientists discover new part of the immune system - BBC News

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Scalable Production of Graphene Oxide from Carbon Fibers

5 March 2025

Researchers at KTH Royal Institute of Technology claim to have significantly advanced sustainable nanomaterial synthesis by creating a scalable and repeatable process for creating graphene oxide (GO) nanosheets from commercial carbon fibers, as published in the scientific journal Small.

Exfoliating carbon fibers with nitric acid produces high yields of one-atom-thick graphene oxide sheets with properties similar to commercial GO derived from mined graphite.

When its thin sheets stack together to form layers resembling graphite, graphene oxide—an extensively researched nanomaterial—can be utilized in automobile batteries. It is also helpful in electronic devices, water purification, and high-performance composites. However, because graphite varies in purity, synthesis from mined graphite necessitates harsh chemicals and frequently produces inconsistent materials.

Biomass is a Possible Source

According to Richard Olsson, a Professor of Polymeric Materials at KTH, carbon fibers made from polyacrylonitrile (PAN), a common polymer that oxidizes and graphitizes at high temperatures, were used to prove the concept. According to him, the process could be repeated using different raw materials, like biomass or forest industry byproducts.

Olsson points to the electric vehicle battery market as one that can benefit from the new technology.

The core of graphite battery functionality can be found in the layered graphene inside, which can be harvested from commercial carbon fibers using this method. The future of auto manufacturing will build on battery-based power, and the question is where the graphite will be sourced? They are going to need alternatives.

Richard Olsson, Professor, Polymeric Materials, KTH Royal Institute of Technology

Related Stories

The method transforms carbon fibers through electrochemical oxidation in a water and nitric acid bath. Similar to how oxidation manifests as rust on an automobile, the bath functions as a conductor, and when an electric current passes through carbon fiber, the material starts to lose electrons, changing the surface. In this instance, the transformation results in the removal of layers of nanoscale graphene oxide from the surface of the carbon fibers.

The researchers found that a mere 5 % nitric acid was ideal for forming these minuscule nanosheets, which had a uniform thickness of roughly 0.9 nm and ranged in size from 0.1 to 1 µm. Interestingly, unlike GO synthesized from natural, mined graphite, which typically takes the form of polygons, the GO nanosheets created in this manner emerged in circular and elliptical shapes.

High Yield and Quality

The new method yields 200 mg of GO per gram of carbon fiber, which is higher than the current synthetic methods. Because of its effective conversion rate, it can be produced on a large scale, solving a significant problem in the synthesis of nanomaterials.

The researchers used various sophisticated techniques to analyze and measure the material's structure and properties to ensure the nanosheets fulfilled quality standards.

The study also investigated two effective methods for removing protective polymer coatings from commercial carbon fibers prior to oxidation: heating at 580 °C for two hours and shock-heating to 1200 °C for three seconds. The study showed that an important factor in the electrochemical exfoliation process is the electrical conduction within the fibers.

Investigating biobased sources for carbon fibers and learning more about the process are among the researchers' next steps, according to Olsson.

Journal Reference:

Español, A., et al. (2025) Making Synthetic 2D Graphene Oxide Nanosheets by Electrochemical Oxidation of Commercial Carbon Fibres. Small. doi.org/10.1002/smll.202408972

KTH Royal Institute of Technology

Scalable Production of Graphene Oxide from Carbon Fibers

.Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Another weekend and what mischief can Team Trump/Musk think up this weekend?

In tomorrow’s music section, a 1920s style jazz band that I last heard when living in the 1980s in Manhattan. A real treat to be 40+ years younger again. Have a great weekend everyone.

The more I learn about people, the more I like my dog.

Mark Twain.