Baltic
Dry Index. 1906 +40 Brent Crude 68.79
Spot Gold 3342 US 2 Year Yield 3.88 -0.07
US Federal Debt. 37.112 trillion
US GDP 30.140 trillion.
A severe though not unfriendly critic of our institutions said that the cure for admiring the House of Lords was to go and look at it.
Walter Bagehot
From Europe to Asia, the global economy is slowing and our next global recession looms into sight.
Probably dropping into recession fast if President Trump’s tariff lunacy goes into effect on August 1st.
For American’s, likely multiple hits starting in August. Rising food price inflation combined with rising stress in the labour, market, retail sales and rising commercial real estate stress.
If Trump’s tariffs go into effect on August 1, H2 25 looks bleak.
Asia-Pacific markets mostly fall as investors
assess Japan’s trade data and Trump’s plans for Powell
Updated Thu, Jul 17 2025 10:12 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell Thursday
as investors assessed the fall in Japan’s
exports for the second consecutive month, as well as U.S. President Donald
Trump’s denial of his intent to fire Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chairman.
The U.S. President on Wednesday denied the
possibility of such a move, hours after he told a room full of Republican
lawmakers that he would fire Powell.
“We’re not planning on doing it,” he said
at a meeting with Bahrain’s Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa at the
White House. “I don’t rule out anything,” he added, “but I think it’s highly
unlikely, unless he has to leave for fraud.”
Trump also reiterated at the same meeting that a 25% tariff would
apply to Japanese imports, saying he does not expect to reach a broader deal
with the country.
Here are today’s highlights and a live
snapshot of how markets are faring:
- Shares
in Japan’s Seven
& i Holdings plunged as trading resumed after
a brief halt following Couche-Tard’s withdrawal of its $47
billion acquisition bid
- Singapore
stocks extended
their rally for the ninth-day to a fresh high
- Japan’s
exports fell for the second
consecutive month
- Singapore’s
non-oil domestic exports beat forecasts in June and jumped
to an 11-month high
Asia
stock markets today: live updates
Dow adds 200 points, S&P 500 rises in volatile
trading as Trump denies he’s firing Powell: Live updates
Updated Wed, Jul 16 2025 4:28 PM EDT
Stocks went on a wild ride Wednesday as a
White House official indicated to CNBC that President Donald Trump was moving
closer to firing Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chairman, initially knocking
down the S&P 500. The
benchmark rebounded as Trump later denied the
report, but traders remained concerned he could follow through.
The S&P 500 added 0.32% and ended at
at 6,263.70. The Nasdaq
Composite gained 0.26%, settling at 20,730.49 and posting its ninth
record close of the year. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average added 231.49 points, or 0.53%, ending at
44,254.78. At its low of the session, the 30-stock index dropped 264.31 points,
or 0.6%.
A senior White House official said to
Republican lawmakers that Trump “likely will soon” remove Powell as Fed chair.
Separately, The New York Times reported that Trump has gone so far
to draft a letter for firing Powell and showed it to lawmakers during that
meeting.
However, Trump soon after downplayed the
reports, saying it is “highly unlikely” he will fire Powell in the near future.
“No, we’re not planning on doing it,” Trump said, adding that he does not “rule
out anything.”
More
Stock
market news for July 16, 2025
Europe Lines Up Behind Powerful Trade Tool in
US Fight
July 16, 2025 at 11:02 PM GMT+1
If Donald Trump follows through on his
latest deadline when it comes to tariffs, a growing number of European
Union member states want the bloc to activate
its most powerful trade tool against the US. Trump has repeatedly delayed
his threatened levies, a pattern of behavior that’s generated the
now-famous TACO
meme. Now he has pledged to impose 30%
tariffs on the EU if no deal is reached by Aug. 1. And this time, his
aides have said, he means it.
It would seem Europe is taking him at his
word. A French-led charge to deploy the bloc’s so-called anti-coercion
instrument is said to be backed by more than half a dozen European capitals.
Benjamin Haddad, France’s minister for European affairs, said earlier this week
that the response from Brussels should include the option of using the tool,
which gives
officials broad powers to take retaliatory action. Those measures
could include new taxes on US tech giants or targeted curbs on US investments
in the EU.
They could also involve limiting access to
certain parts of the EU market or restricting US firms from bidding for public
contracts in Europe. “In this negotiation, you need to show strength, you need
to show force, unity and resolve,” Haddad told Bloomberg Television on Monday,
adding “we can go further.” —David
E. Rovella
Europe
Lines Up Behind Powerful Trade Tool in US Fight: Evening Briefing - Bloomberg
Japan’s exports fall for second straight month
with no U.S. trade deal in sight, raising recession fears
Published Wed, Jul 16 2025 7:58 PM EDT
Japan’s exports in June contracted 0.5%
year over year, extending the 1.7% drop seen in May as deliveries continued to
decline for the second straight month.
The decrease in exports was a reversal of
the 0.5% rise expected by economists polled by Reuters, and comes amid a lack
of a breakthrough in trade talks with the U.S.
Exports to China, Japan’s largest trading
partner, were down 4.7%, while shipments to the U.S. declined by 11.4% year
over year, deepening from the 11% fall in May.
The data comes as Japan now faces a 25% “reciprocal tariff” from the U.S. that will take
effect on August 1, one percentage point higher than the 24% announced on
“Liberation Day.”
Earlier on Wednesday, U.S. President
Donald Trump reiterated that a 25% tariff would apply to Japanese
imports, saying he does not expect to reach a broader deal with the country.
Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at
Capital Economics, noted that the 11.4% decline in exports to the U.S. was the
largest since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.
Exports — including services — made up
almost 22% of Japan’s GDP in 2023, according to the latest data
from the World Bank.
Since April 3, Japanese automobiles
imported into the U.S. have also faced a 25%
tariff. Auto exports to the U.S. are a cornerstone of Japan’s economy,
making up 28.3% of all shipments in 2024, according to customs data.
However, data from the trade ministry showed that exports of automobiles, which
include cars, buses and trucks, to the U.S. fell 26.7% in June, extending from
May’s 24.7% plunge.
Thieliant said that carmakers seem to be
doubling down on price cuts to retain market share, pointing out that while car
export volumes to the U.S. rose by 4.6% year over year, car export values
slumped by 25.3% year-on-year.
“Some of that simply reflects the strengthening of the yen as U.S.-bound
exports are typically invoiced in dollars. But most of it is due to price cuts,
with carmakers seemingly absorbing nearly all of the 25% U.S. tariff imposed by
Trump in April in their margins,” he highlighted.
Japan’s
exports fall for second straight month with no U.S. trade deal in sight
Expect tariff ‘cascade’ effect across slowing
global economy, top UN official warns
Published Wed, Jul 16 2025 2:32 PM EDT Updated
Wed, Jul 16 2025 2:46 PM EDT
The leading arm of the United Nations’
organization focused on trade and development, UNCTAD, said President
Trump’s tariff policies are already creating new costs and disruptions
in the global supply chain, and for less developed nations that trade with the
U.S., the worst economic fallout hasn’t hit yet.
“We already see a disruption in the global
supply chain,” said Rebeca Grynspan, Secretary General of UNCTAD. “Many of the
CEOs sit and wait, because if there is no predictability, and what you need for
trade and investment is predictability and trust,” she added.
Earlier this year, UNCTAD released data
showing global investment is
back at financial crisis era levels. The UN arm is also forecasting
one-half a percentage point to be shaved off of global growth this year.
“We are worried the high level of
uncertainty is paralyzing business decisions, which is impacting trade,
resulting in trade being revised downward,” Grynspan said of the lowered global
GDP forecast of 2.3%, down from 2.8%. “This is a lot,” she said. “This is
already much lower than the growth we experienced in the last decade.”
U.S.
consumer inflation increased in June, a spike attributed to higher
prices on consumer goods imported from foreign countries, though the
Trump administration says tariffs do not cause inflation.
Vietnam, Cambodia, and Malaysia, three
Asian countries that benefited from the “China Plus One” supply chain strategy
that saw more manufacturing move to these countries, are seeing an impact as
supply chains shift again, Grynspan said. Trump has threatened to add a 40%
tariff onto any good that uses what is known as transshipment, with a product’s
journey starting in China but then moving to nations such as Vietnam to avoid
Chinese tariffs.
The layering of tariffs will cause the
most economic pain for the least developed nations globally, according to the
UN official, with a combination of existing tariffs and Trump tariff threats
resulting in a stacking up of trade taxes that could lead to a reduction in
exports of over 50%. “This is a cascade,” she said.
“It will affect jobs, and it will affect
the stability in many countries, where even growth will be lower than the
average in the world,” Grynspan said. “If you take the least developed
countries of the world, 46 countries that are the most vulnerable, we project
that their exports could be impacted, as much as 54% down, if the tariffs are
put on them,” she added.
More
Expect
tariff 'cascade' effect across slowing world economy, UN warns
In other news.
Stellantis scraps hydrogen fuel cell tech and
abandons new car plans
16 July 2025
Carmaker Stellantis has scrapped its
hydrogen fuel cell development programme as well as launch plans for new
vehicles using the technology.
The group announced on Wednesday it would
no longer launch a range of hydrogen-powered vehicles this year.
Stellantis said 'the hydrogen market is
showing no development prospect at mid-term'.
The group said the decision was due to the
limited availability of hydrogen refuelling infrastructure, high capital
requirements and the need for stronger purchase incentives for customers.
Jean-Philippe Imparato, chief
operating officer for enlarged Europe, added: 'The hydrogen market remains a
niche segment, with no prospects of mid-term economic sustainability.'
Imparato said the company had to 'make
clear and responsible choices to ensure our competitiveness and meet the
expectations of our customers with our electric and hybrid passenger and light
commercial vehicles offensive'.
More
Stellantis scraps
hydrogen fuel cell tech and abandons new car plans
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
CNBC Daily Open: U.S. producer prices are flat —
but they don’t factor in imports
Published Wed, Jul 16 2025 9:15 PM EDT
No one likes being the person who goes
“but actually…”. Sometimes, however, it is necessary.
The U.S. producer price index in June was
flat, meaning that wholesale prices remained stagnant from May to June. This
might suggest that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs are hitting the
economy less than feared, in contrast to what the uptick
in June’s consumer price index suggested.
But actually, the PPI measures prices at
the level of the manufacturer — which is located in America. In other words,
the index “does not include imports, because imports are by definition not
produced by domestic firms,” according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
By contrast, the CPI considers all goods
and services that the consumer purchases, regardless of their country of
origin. As the BLS elaborates, “imports compose a substantial portion of the
CPI especially within the apparel and new-cars component.” While new vehicle
prices fell 0.3% in June, those
of apparel rose 0.4%, suggesting that the effects of tariffs are
starting to show in some components of the CPI.
But actually, we might not know the full
effect of the tariffs until after Aug. 1 when the updated tariffs kick in —
provided Trump keeps to the deadline this time.
CNBC
Daily Open: U.S. producer prices are flat — but they don't factor in imports
Wholesale
inflation measure was unchanged in June
Published
Wed, Jul 16 2025 8:32 AM EDT
A
measure of wholesale prices showed no change in June, providing a conflicting
sign over whether tariffs threaten to boost inflation in the coming months.
The
producer price index was flat, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from
the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Dow
Jones had been looking for an increase of 0.2%.
The
same was true for core PPI, which also was expected to show a 0.2% increase.
Combined
with Tuesday’s consumer price index release, the data suggests that President
Donald Trump’s tariffs are indicating only a marginal bite on the U.S. economy
and the prices for goods and services.
Though
the numbers for headline and core wholesale inflation were subdued, final
demand goods prices rose 0.3%, though they were offset by a 0.1% fall in
services. Within the goods category, tariff-sensitive communication equipment
posted a gain of 0.8%. Core goods prices also rose 0.3%.
At
the same time, the PPI level for May, initially reported as a 0.1% increase,
saw an upward revision to a 0.3% gain, the biggest gain since February, the BLS
reported.
On
a year-over-year basis, headline PPI was up 2.3%, compared to 2.7% in May.
PPI inflation
report June 2025
Inflation
unexpectedly edges up in June
Updated: Wednesday 16
July 2025 7:09 am
Inflation
unexpectedly edged up to 3.6 per cent in June, official data has
revealed, putting further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England at
risk.
In
the latest set of price growth data before the next monetary
policy decision in
August, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that
price growth remained
well above the Bank’s two per cent target rate.
Services
inflation was 4.7 per cent in the year to June, the official statistics body
also revealed.
A
Bloomberg poll of economists predicted inflation would hit 3.4 per cent in the
year to June.
It
is the third
month in
a row that inflation has remained above the three per cent mark, presenting a
challenge to Bank of England rate-setters voting for cuts.
The
initial jump in inflation in April was primarily due to increases in prices
following Rachel Reeves’ higher taxes, which included a rise in employers’
national insurance contributions (NICs), a rise in the national minimum wage,
and soaring utility bills.
Consumers
could see prices inch up further this summer before a gradual decrease,
according to forecasters.
Markets
believe that rate-setters will vote for a cut despite some hesitancy among some
economists.
Inflation
release precedes jobs data
Bank
of England officials
may be more concerned about upcoming labour market data published by the
ONS.
Economists
expect the official data body to revise the number of people pushed out of work
in May from 109,000 to around 50,000.
Jobs
data could be a sticking point for rate-setters, including Bank of
England Governor
Andrew Bailey,
who has raised concerns about a “softening” in the labour market and “slack”
opening up.
At
the last interest rates meeting, just three MPC members – external members
Swati Dhingra, Alan Taylor and deputy governor Alan Ramsden – voted for a 25
basis point cut.
All
eyes will be on chief economist Huw Pill’s next move after he voted against the
consensus in May to hold interest rates, claiming they had fallen “too fast”
and fuelled higher levels of inflation.
The
Bank has reiterated its belief that interest rates will be cut in upcoming
meetings, but it has previously warned that the UK was not on a “pre-set path”
to lower borrowing costs due to sticky inflation.
Analysts
at Pantheon Macroeconomics believe the Bank will make only one more cut in the
next year, while Capital Economics predicts rates could be cut to three per
cent by the end of 2026.
Inflation unexpectedly edges up in June
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Revolutionizing Data Center Cooling With Graphene and AI
Technology: GIM StarLight Miami Begins Operations in the U.S.
Tue, July 15, 2025 at 4:00 PM
GMT+1
Solving the Cooling Crisis: The Future of Data Center Efficiency
Begins with Graphene, AI, and a Global Vision-Cutting Energy Costs for Quantum,
Blockchain, and AI Infrastructure
MIAMI, FL / ACCESS Newswire /
July 15, 2025 / GIM
StarLight Miami Inc., a Graphene
Innovations Manchester (GIM) UK Company, has officially
launched operations at its new headquarters and demonstration facility in
Miami, Florida. The company introduces a next-generation proprietary cooling
system designed specifically for AI and crypto data centers, leveraging
proprietary graphene and other 2D (two-dimensional) advanced materials, and
artificial intelligence to solve one of the industry's most urgent
challenges-excessive heat and its associated energy consumption.
With data centers expected to exceed $1 Trillion in
U.S. investment over the next five years, and cooling demands representing up
to 50% of total power usage, GIM StarLight Miami aims to deliver a disruptive
solution that significantly reduces energy use, improves efficiency, and lowers
operational costs.
"The UK is proud to see homegrown innovation making a global
impact," said His Majesty's Consul General in Miami, Rufus Drabble.
"GIM StarLight Miami exemplifies the strength of UK-US collaboration in
tackling global energy challenges. This is a powerful example of how British
science and entrepreneurship can help shape a more sustainable digital
future."
"Our technology is engineered to meet the escalating thermal
demands of modern data centers," said Dr.
Vivek Koncherry, CEO and Chairman of GIM StarLight Miami. "By combining the
world's best heat conductor -graphene, first isolated in Manchester UK -with
intelligent fluid dynamics and predictive AI, we enable data centers to significantly
cut cooling energy consumption while improving performance and
sustainability."
Key Highlights:
Breakthrough Product: The cooling system uses
graphene-fluid blends and AI algorithms to optimize thermal load in
real-time-eliminating hotspots and maintaining temperature equilibrium.
Immediate Impact: First commercial
installation targeted for early 2026.
Strategic Leadership: GIM StarLight Miami is led
by a globally recognized team of scientists and industry veterans, including
experts from MIT, Harvard, NASDAQ, and Caterpillar, supported by a
world-class R&D team at Graphene Innovations Manchester in the UK.
More
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
A
Parliament is nothing less than a big meeting of more or less idle people.
Walter Bagehot
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