Monday, 21 July 2025

ECB Week. Powell Speech Tuesday. Tariff Day Plus 11.

Baltic Dry Index. 2052 +22           Brent Crude 69.36

Spot Gold 3358                   US 2 Year Yield 3.88 -0.03

US Federal Debt. 37.129 trillion

US GDP 30.148 trillion.

A recession is when your neighbor loses his job. A depression is when you lose yours.

Ronald Reagan

We are now just 11 days out from the great global tariff disruption, assuming fickle President Trump doesn’t delay it yet again.

Dinosaur Graeme, thinks bad things will start happening fast in the global economy in August and September if Trump’s tariff war on the rest of the world takes effect on August 1st.

Aug. 1 is ‘hard deadline’ for Trump’s tariffs, Commerce Secretary Lutnick says

Published Sun, Jul 20 2025 3:07 PM EDT

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that Aug. 1 is the deadline for countries to begin paying tariffs to the United States, but said that “nothing stops countries from talking to us after August 1.”

“That’s a hard deadline, so on August 1, the new tariff rates will come in,” Lutnick said on CBS News, when asked about the deadline for his tariffs on the European Union.

President Donald Trump’s tariff deadline has shifted since he announced his steep levies on trading partners on April 2, but White House officials now maintain that Aug. 1 is a firm deadline.

“Nothing stops countries from talking to us after August 1, but they’re going to start paying the tariffs on August 1,” Lutnick said.

Lutnick said that some small countries, “the Latin American countries, the Caribbean countries, many countries in Africa,” would have a baseline tariff of 10%.

Lutnick’s comments could bring relief for nations anxiously awaiting a definitive decision on tariff rates from Trump, who recently suggested that baseline tariff rates for these nations could be over 10%.

The president announced last week that letters to smaller countries would be sent out soon. “We’ll probably set one tariff for all of them ... probably a little over 10%,” Trump said.

Lutnick added that “the bigger economies will either open themselves up or they’ll pay a fair tariff to America.”

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Lutnick: August 1 is hard deadline Trump tariffs

EU to Prepare Retaliation Plan as US Trade Stance Hardens

Sun, July 20, 2025 at 4:22 PM GMT+1

(Bloomberg) -- European Union envoys are set to meet as early as this week to formulate a plan for measures to respond to a possible no-deal scenario with US President Donald Trump, whose tariff negotiating position is seen to have stiffened ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline.

The overwhelming preference is to keep negotiations with Washington on track in a bid for an outcome to the impasse ahead of next month’s deadline.

Still, efforts have yet to yield sustained progress following talks in Washington last week, according to people familiar with the matter. Negotiations will continue over the next two weeks.

The US is now seen to want a near-universal tariff on EU goods higher than 10%, with increasingly fewer exemptions limited to aviation, some medical devices and generic medicines, several spirits, and a specific set of manufacturing equipment that the US needs, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations.

A spokesperson for the European Commission, which handles trade matters for the bloc, said they had no comment to make on the ongoing negotiations.

The two sides have also discussed a potential ceiling for some sectors, as well as quotas for steel and aluminum and a way to ring-fence supply chains from sources that oversupply the metals, the people said. The people cautioned that even if an agreement were reached it would need Trump’s sign off – and his position isn’t clear.

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EU to Prepare Retaliation Plan as US Trade Stance Hardens

Asia markets trade mixed as investors assess China rate decision

Updated Mon, Jul 21 2025 12:34 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Monday, after the People’s Bank of China stood pat on its 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates.

Investors were also assessing the latest developments on the trade front, as they came into focus once again over the weekend when the White House reiterated its position on tariffs.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick Sunday called Aug. 1 the “hard deadline” for countries to start paying tariffs, although he also added that “nothing stops countries from talking to us after August 1.”

Here are today’s highlights and a live snapshot of how markets are faring:

Asia stock markets today: live updates

European markets set to start the week on a negative note as tariff threat weighs

Updated Mon, Jul 21 2025 12:21 AM EDT

Good morning from London, and welcome to CNBC’s live blog covering all the action and business news in European financial markets on Monday.

Futures data from IG suggest a negative start to the new trading week for European bourses, with London’s FTSE 100 seen opening 0.1% lower, France’s CAC 40 down 0.3%, Germany’s DAX down 0.4%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB 0.35% lower.

European markets have been on tenterhooks since U.S. President Donald Trump announced earlier in July that he would impose a 30% tariff on goods imported from the EU starting Aug. 1. The EU has said it hopes to strike a trade deal before then but an agreement remains elusive.

On Sunday, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick called Aug. 1 the “hard deadline” for countries to start paying tariffs, although he also added that “nothing stops countries from talking to us after August 1.”

— Holly Ellyatt

European markets on Mon July 21: Stoxx 600, FTSE, DAX, CAC

Stock futures are little changed as traders await big tech earnings, eye trade developments: Live updates

Updated Sun, Jul 20 2025 6:16 PM EDT

U.S. stock futures were little changed Sunday night as investors tracked the latest developments on trade, and awaited the start of big tech earnings this week.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell by 27 points, or 0.05%. S&P 500 futures slid 0.04%, while Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.03%.

Trade was once again in focus as the White House reiterated its position on tariffs. On Sunday, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick called Aug. 1 the “hard deadline” for countries to start paying tariffs, though he also added that “nothing stops countries from talking to us after August 1.”

Wall Street is coming off a winning week for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, both of which continued to notch all-time highs. The S&P 500 ended the week higher by 0.6%, while the Nasdaq climbed 1.5%. The Dow ended the week slightly lower.

The moves come on the heels of a solid start to earnings season. Of the 59 S&P 500 companies that have reported thus far, more than 86% have topped expectations, according to FactSet data.

The major averages could receive a boost in the week ahead if Alphabet and Tesla — the first of the so-called Magnificent Seven companies set to report — manage to beat estimates. The megacaps are expected to be a major driver of earnings growth during the second-quarter earnings season. FactSet’s John Butters expects the Magnificent Seven will post earnings growth of 14% in the second quarter, while the other 493 S&P 500 companies are seen posting growth of just 3.4%.

“We’re at an all time high for the [S&P 500] right at the beginning of earnings season,” said Mark Malek, investment chief at Siebert Financial, adding, “If we can get through this earnings season with not too many major failures, I think that is really, really important at this point, if we want to continue this upward momentum that we have in the market.”

On the economic front, the June reading for leading indicators, which are predictive metrics for the overall market and economy, is scheduled for release on Monday at 10 a.m. ET.

Stock market today: Live updates

Global week ahead: Banking bellwethers and a tariffs waiting game

Published Sun, Jul 20 2025 1:38 AM EDT

Next week, the CNBC teams are back on the road – and it’s all about the banks and the ECB. From Frankfurt to Milan, and Paris to London, the financials are in focus.

Banking bellwethers

The markets seem to be banking on the financial sector to keep up the positive earnings momentum this quarter. Citi described the first quarter as “remarkably resilient,” with analysts now expecting Stoxx 600 earnings-per-share growth to turn positive year-on-year this quarter.

Much of that optimism is centered on the big banks, while other sectors like luxury, autos and energy have been plagued by earnings downgrades.

Unicredit kicks things off on Wednesday. The Italian banking giant will try to keep investors focused on the numbers, rather than its M&A ambitions. While its moves around Commerzbank have seen it increase its equity stake to 20%, Saxo Bank analysts highlight the uncertainty around its potential takeover of Banco BPM, after an Italian court blocked the move until further conditions are met. The stock is up over 50% so far this year, providing some cheer for CEO Andrea Orcel as he battles to keep his expansion plans on track.

French financial BNP Paribas — the euro zone’s largest lender by assets — reports earnings on Thursday.

Last quarter, the bank soared past expectations driven by performance at its investment bank, but revised its profitability target slightly lower.

On the same day, attention will turn to Frankfurt for Deutsche Bank’s latest set of numbers. The German lender logged its best profit in 14 years last quarter, benefiting from increased trading volumes around the market volatility. CEO Christian Sewing told CNBC in June that he sees an opportunity for Europe to invest more in its own defense sector as a key growth area.

The waiting game

For macro-watchers, the highlight of the week in Europe will come from the European Central Bank. President Christine Lagarde and her fellow policymakers are expected to keep rates on hold at 2% on Thursday. But there is a BIG catch…

U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats are not expected to derail this meeting’s outcome, according to Reuters, citing five ECB governing council member sources. But if Trump does push ahead with 30% tariffs on EU imports, there is a broad assumption the ECB will cut rates in response.

Investors will have until Sept. 11 to assess the impact, as the ECB breaks for the summer after this week’s meeting.

Inflation situation

In terms of the underlying economic conditions, Deutsche Bank warns that European inflation risks are “still being underestimated, with a remarkable complacency across key assets,” with the tariff impact yet to fully trickle through.

The bank’s macro strategist also told CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe that the Aug. 1 tariff deadline for negotiations between the U.S. and EU sets the stage for a late outcome to trigger a “very sharp market reaction.”

Global week ahead: Banking bellwethers and a tariffs waiting game

In other news, sadly, a four year, lame duck, 79 year old President, has declared tariff war on the rest of the world. 350 million Americans v 7.6 billion rest of the world. So far, we are only in the phony war stage of the tariff wars as they slowly start to come in. 

Once unemployment starts rising in the rest of the world and America, things will turn ugly against President Trump, and unfortunately America, quite fast.

Trump’s threats to fire the Fed chair and raise tariffs will decimate the dollar

19 July 2025

Understanding what motivates normal politicians to follow bad economic advice is difficult enough. Are they paying off some special interest, or do they really believe that two plus two equals three? With Donald Trump, the difficulty of interpreting the motivation for his policies sometimes goes to a whole different level.

Does he understand that if he fires Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, the Fed will lose anti-inflation credibility and the general level of interest rates will rise, not fall? Does he really believe that Team Trump can design regulation that makes the crypto sector grow to the moon – bitcoin hit $120,000 (£89,000) last week – without causing another financial crisis?

Tariffs are another dubious idea, with countries being threatened if they do not agree to a “deal” by 1 August. Any country that believes that by bending over it will secure lasting peace is kidding itself. Trump is having fun brandishing tariffs and, while he might pause, he is not going to stop. Besides, he and his acolytes see the tariff weapon as a way to exercise power the United States has always had but never exploited. Trump is not just looking to use tariffs as an economic tool. He sees them as a bludgeon that can be used to impose his will on almost any country on almost any issue.

Over the long run, Trump’s retreat from globalisation, combined with his tariff fetishism, are likely to lower US growth while raising interest rates and inflation. It might be a winning strategy for Trump personally by making him the centre of attention, but it is not a winning strategy for the US economy.

And none of this, imposing tariffs, promoting crypto, or attacking the Fed, can be good for the US dollar, the world’s reserve currency, which has already plummeted sharply in value this year.

The centrality of the dollar, which is the lingua franca of global trade and finance, has long helped the Americans to enjoy substantially lower interest rates than they would otherwise be paying, perhaps 0.5% to 1% lower. This applies not only to government borrowing but to private mortgages, car loans and business loans.

Trump sees tariffs as a bludgeon that can be used to impose his will on almostany country on almost any issue

The savings amount to hundreds of billions of dollars a year, at a minimum. The dollar gives the US the ability to use financial sanctions in lieu of military intervention, and also gives the US a treasure trove of information on both friends and enemies alike.

Dollar dominance was fraying at the edges even before Trump, especially with the Chinese yuan gradually decoupling its dollar peg, and Chinese authorities developing their own international settlement systems. Europe has also been looking to expand the footprint of the euro. Now, however, with attacks against the Fed, the tariff war, and general undermining of the rule of law, what was going to be a gradual decline in the dollar’s influence will surely accelerate.

The dollar is not going to disappear, but its position could become significantly less dominant over the next decade, with the Chinese yuan becoming more important in Asia, and the euro taking back some of the global influence it lost after the European debt crisis. The dollar’s loss will also be crypto’s gain, especially in the global underground economy,

Trump’s rejection of globalisation, and his embrace of chaotic policies, is mostly a lose-lose situation for the US economy that will result in more inflation volatility, higher interest rates, and a spate of financial crises, including in crypto, and possibly surrounding government debt. What will Trump conjure up to distract everyone if the economy turns sour?

Kenneth Rogoff is Professor of Economics at Harvard University and author of Our Dollar, Your Problem: An Insider’s View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance, and the Road Ahead

Trump’s threats to fire the Fed chair and raise tariffs will decimate the dollar

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Here's when a top economist says the US will see the most damage from Trump's tariffs

Fri, July 18, 2025 at 11:47 PM GMT+1

Apollo's chief economist says the most damage from Donald Trump's trade war will be felt in the economy sometime around the end of the year.

Torsten Sløk said he thinks that the sweeping tariffs the president announced this year will push prices higher until inflation reaches a peak in November or December.

Speaking to Bloomberg this week, Sløk pointed to consensus inflation expectations, which show inflation rising through the last two months of the year.

Inflation, meanwhile, is already starting to "lift-off" in consumer goods, he said. The latest consumer price index report showed that prices for durables grew 0.7% year-over-year in June, the second-straight month of growth after more than two years of annualized declines. The headline number also drifted higher, hitting 2.7%, from 2.4% in May.

Services inflation, which accounts for 60% of the CPI, will likely take off soon as well, Sløk said. He pointed to the impact of Trump's mass deportations on wage growth, which raises employment costs for businesses and can cause prices to rise as well.

"They need to wait to see the peak. And we have really only had the take-off stage," he said of the Fed and inflation

Hotter inflation spells bad news on two fronts, Sløk said:

·         The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates. Central bankers will want to assess the peak damage from Trump's tariffs before loosening monetary policy more meaningfully, he said.

·         It could be the start of a stagflation shock. In a previous note to clients, Sløk said he believed the US was already beginning to see a stagflation shock, a situation where inflation rises while economic growth slows. Economists have described stagflation as one of the worst-case scenarios for the economy, as the Fed can't cut rates to boost economic growth without fanning inflation.

Stagflation could cause GDP growth in 2025 could more than halve from its peak last year, Sløk estimated in a recent whitepaper. Inflation could also remain around 3% throughout 2025, while the unemployment rate could rise over the next two years, he predicted, based on where tariffs stood in June.

Here's when a top economist says the US will see the most damage from Trump's tariffs

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

Pfizer's COVID-19 Vaccine May Lead to Serious Eye Damage, New Study Reveals

20 July 2025

A new Turkish study has raised concerns that Pfizer-BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine may have subtle but serious side effects on the cornea. The research examined changes in the corneas of at least 64 patients before and after receiving both doses of the vaccine.

According to the scientists involved in the study published in the journal Ophthalmic Epidemiology, even though no immediate vision loss was reported, the vaccine led to thicker corneas, a reduced number of endothelial cells, and structural changes that could affect eye health over time.

The Daily Mail reported the changes in the eyes suggest the Pfizer vaccine may temporarily weaken the endothelium, even though patients did not suffer clear vision issues when the study was being conducted. Scientists said that for those with healthy eyes, these small changes likely may not affect vision right away. However, they may lead to corneal swelling or blurry vision, especially in those with pre-existing eye issues or those who have had a corneal transplant.

Researchers found that the average thickness of the cornea increased from 528 to 542 micrometres after two Pfizer doses, which is around a rise of 2 per cent. The endothelial cell count, which is responsible for keeping the cornea clear, dropped by about 8 per cent, from 2,597 to 2,378 cells per square millimetre.

Scientists urge caution

According to the study, which analysed the eye health with the help of Sirius corneal topography and Tomey EM-4000 specular microscopy, there is no need to halt the vaccination efforts. Scientists have rather called for ongoing monitoring of corneal health in those who already battle vulnerabilities in their eyes.

The researchers have also emphasised that the changes observed can be temporary responses to stress or inflammation that may resolve over time. Still, they warned that “the endothelium should be closely monitored in those with a low endothelial count or who have had a corneal graft”, especially if future studies confirm long-term damage.

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Pfizer's COVID-19 Vaccine May Lead to Serious Eye Damage, New Study Reveals

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Almond Shell Waste Powers Sustainable Graphene-Based Sensors

18 July 2025

Scientists have developed biodegradable sensors from waste almond shells, offering a sustainable alternative to conventional electronics for environmental and agricultural monitoring.

In a recent study published in Advanced Functional Materials, researchers have unveiled a novel way to turn discarded almond shells into flexible, graphene-based sensors.

Why Almond Shells?

Laser-induced graphene (LIG) is a promising material for sensors and circuits, typically made by laser-scribing carbon-rich plastics like polyimide. But, as research aims to better contribute to eco-friendly science, researchers are looking at biomass-derived alternatives.

Cellulose-based materials, such as wood, paper, and crop byproducts, have already shown potential as eco-friendly LIG sources. Almond shells stand out thanks to their high lignocellulose content, abundance, and low cost.

Related Stories

This study investigated their potential as biodegradable, laser-scribed electronics. The scientists aimed to produce materials that are not only conductive but also strong, flexible, and degrade naturally in soil. 

Turning Shells into Sensors

The team started by grinding hard and soft-shell almond cultivars into a fine powder, less than 50 micrometres in size. They tested the cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin content to pick the most promising variety.

The resulting powder was blended with biopolymers (such as chitosan, glycerol, and acetic acid) after chemically removing impurities. This created a uniform dispersion, which was cast into thin, flexible films between 0.3 and 1.2 millimetres thick.

These films were then laser-scribed to form conductive graphene directly on their surface. The researchers adjusted the laser’s wavelength, power, and scan speed to create porous, interconnected carbon networks.

The team used Raman spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and micro-CT imaging to check the consistency and morphological structure of the films.

The electrical conductivity of the laser-treated areas was measured by sheet resistance. Soil burial tests over 90 days confirmed that the materials degraded naturally, while mechanical tests showed the films remained strong and flexible enough for practical use.

The team then built simple resistive sensors and humidity detectors on the films to test their viability. They monitored their responses to environmental changes through impedance and resistance measurements.

Download your PDF copy now!

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Almond Shell Waste Powers Sustainable Graphene-Based Sensors

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

In the Great Depression in which I grew up and remember vividly, unemployment was over 25 percent, and over 35 percent where I lived. A grown man would work all day, 16 hours, for a dollar. I remember hundreds of people walking by, people who had come down from the North just to get warm. They would come to our house as beggars even though they might have a college education. People didn't have money. They bartered; they'd trade eggs or pigs. It was just completely different.

Jimmy Carter 

Posted by Graeme Irvine at 06:05

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