Baltic
Dry Index. 2109 -117 Brent Crude 72.71
Spot Gold 3327 US 2 Year Yield 3.86 -0.05
US Federal Debt. 37.167 trillion
US GDP 30.167 trillion.
Stability leads to instability. The more stable things become and the longer things are stable, the more unstable they will be when the crisis hits.
Hyman Minsky
An interesting day and rest of the week as President Trump returns to Washington, threatens Russia, and TACOs China and copper?
Tomorrow the Fed’s favourite inflation index, the personal consumption expenditures price index.
On Friday, the latest US employment report and tariff havoc Friday.
Look away from that soaring oil price now. I filled the car up yesterday.
Asia markets trade mixed as U.S. tariff
truce with China hangs in the balance
Updated Wed, Jul 30 2025 12:04 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed
Wednesday after the U.S.-China talks in Sweden ended
without a tariff truce extension Tuesday stateside. A postponement of
higher duties won’t be final until President Donald Trump signs off on the
plan, U.S. negotiators said.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard
Lutnick also affirmed that President Donald Trump’s upcoming Friday
deadline to impose major tariffs on
a slew of trading partners
will not be delayed further.
However, Lutnick noted that trade
negotiations with China are progressing on a separate timeline, he said on
CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
Asia
markets live: Australia CPI, MAS policy statement
Stock futures are little changed as investors
analyze earnings, await Fed rate decision: Live updates
Updated Wed, Jul 30 2025 7:51 PM EDT
S&P 500 futures are near
flat Tuesday night, after the benchmark snapped a win streak that brought it to
record highs, as investors analyzed earnings reports and awaited the Federal
Reserve’s interest rate decision.
Futures tied to the broad index were up
less than 0.1%, while Nasdaq
100 futures advanced 0.1%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost
23 points.
Starbucks shares
climbed 4% after the bell after the coffee chain posted stronger-than-expected
revenue for the third
fiscal quarter. On the other hand, Visa sank more than 2% despite
quarterly results coming in better than what Wall Street expected.
Tuesday night’s action follows a losing
day on the Street, marking the first session of the last seven in
which the S&P 500 did not close at an all-time high. The S&P 500 slid
0.3%, while the Dow and Nasdaq Composite lost about 0.5% and 0.4%,
respectively.
The major averages were weighed down
Tuesday as the progress of U.S.
trade talks with China became shaky. U.S. negotiators ended
discussions with Beijing, and the potential extension of a pause on higher
China tariffs remained uncertain. A postponement of these higher rates won’t be
final until President Donald Trump signs off on the plan, U.S. negotiators
said.
Investors are awaiting the Federal
Reserve’s interest rate announcement Wednesday afternoon. Fed funds futures are
pricing in a nearly 98% likelihood of the central bank keeping its key rate at
a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
“Despite increased political scrutiny, Fed
Chair Jerome Powell continues to signal patience around any interest rate
decision,” said Jerry Tempelman, vice president of fixed income research at
Mutual of America Capital Management. “Financial markets do not anticipate any
change in monetary policy from the Federal Reserve until at least September.”
Following the decision, traders will turn
to a press conference with Powell for insights into the
path of monetary policy. This comes as President Trump and allies have
tried to pressure the central bank leader to bring the borrowing cost down.
Before that, traders will monitor economic
data on private payrolls, gross domestic product and pending home sales due in
the morning.
They’ll also follow the continued stream
of earnings reports. Etsy will
provide its quarterly results before the bell on Wednesday, followed by Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Ford and Robinhood after the market
closes.
Stock
market today: Live updates
US, China to Continue Talks About
Maintaining Tariff Truce
July 29, 2025 at 11:21 PM GMT+1
Chinese trade negotiators and the White
House said both
sides are looking to potentially extend talks beyond an August
deadline to resolve wide-ranging tariff disputes triggered by Donald Trump’s
global trade war.
The original 90-day suspension of trade
hostilities in May saw the US president retreating from sky-high tariffs
that threatened to cut off bilateral trade between the world’s largest
economies. Now another 90-day delay is a possibility, according to US
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang
confirmed that both sides agree on maintaining the truce, without elaborating
on how long.
Trade tensions between China and the US
have risen of late as both sides try to apply industrial leverage. China has
exerted its dominance in rare earth minerals for concessions from the US on
advanced chips needed for Beijing’s ambitions in artificial intelligence.
A recent softening by Trump, whose
May truce was seen as a victory for Beijing, has China hawks in Washington
worried he is giving up too much just to hold a summit with Chinese leader
Xi Jinping. —Jordan
Parker Erb
US,
China to Continue Talks About Maintaining Tariff Truce: Evening Briefing -
Bloomberg
In other news, Fidelity joins Goldie in getting bullish on gold. Well, with Sovereign Wealth Funds joining central banks in accumulating gold bullion, as the USA Federal Debt will exceed the US GDP by 7 trillion fiat dollars Wednesday or Thursday, why not take out some insurance against Uncle Scam’s fiat dollar going the way of the old Italian Lira and Greek drachma?
Fidelity Says $4,000 Gold Possible as Fed Cuts, Dollar Drops
(Bloomberg) — Gold could hit $4,000 an
ounce by the end of next year as the Federal Reserve cuts rates to cushion the
US economy, the dollar drops, and central banks keep adding holdings, according
to Fidelity International.
Multi-asset fund manager Ian Samson said
the firm remained bullish on the precious metal, with some cross-asset
portfolios recently increasing holdings as prices eased from an all-time high
above $3,500 an ounce in April.
“The rationale for that was that we saw a
clearer path to a more dovish Federal Reserve,” Samson said in an interview,
adding that some funds had as much as doubled their 5% allocation over the past
year. Also, August is often slightly weaker for markets, so more
diversification “makes sense,” he said.
Gold is up by more than a quarter this
year, as uncertainty around President Donald Trump’s aggressive attempts to
reshape global trade, conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, and
central-bank accumulation buttressed gains. Still, the metal has traded within
a tight range over the past few months, with demand for havens cooling a little
as some progress in US trade talks eased fears about worst-case-scenarios for
the global economy.
“Perhaps you’re going to avoid the
doomsday scenarios that were painted earlier in the year, but ultimately we’re
heading to a 15%-or-so tax on about 11% of the US economy — which is imports,”
said Samson, referring to Trump’s tariffs. “You’d expect it to slow the
economy.”
Fidelity’s bullish outlook for gold is
similar to that from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which has made the case in
recent quarters for an eventual rally to as much as $4,000 an ounce. Still,
others are cautious, including Citigroup Inc., which forecasts weaker prices.
Spot bullion was last near $3,315.
Fed officials are due to gather this week
to set policy. While no change is expected, Chair Jerome Powell may face
dissents from officials who want to provide support to a slowing labor market,
potentially from Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair for Supervision
Michelle Bowman.
A US slowdown would likely see the dovish
camp gain more influence in guiding policy, with the dollar tending to soften
in environments of weaker growth, Samson said. In addition, Powell — whose term
as Fed chair ends next May — will probably be replaced by someone “more
amenable” to lower borrowing costs as Trump continues to lobby for
interest-rate cuts, he said.
Non-yielding bullion typically benefits
when the greenback softens and interest-rates ease.
Elsewhere, the world’s central bank are
likely to go on buying gold, he added, while growing fiscal deficits —
particularly in the US — would continue to reinforce the precious metal’s
appeal as a hard asset.
“Sure, gold has come a long way, but if
you look at when gold’s been in a bull market — like 2001 to 2011 — it
annualized 20% per annum,” he said. “From 2021 to today, it’s also annualizing
20% a year. So it’s not necessarily, in the context of a bull run, massively
overstretched.”
Fidelity Says
$4,000 Gold Possible as Fed Cuts, Dollar Drops
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Us
poor Brits better start buying now for Christmas 2025.
Price
of fresh food pushes up Brits’ supermarket bills
Tuesday
29 July 2025 6:00 am
Higher wholesale
prices for
meat and tea have pushed up grocery prices at UK supermarkets, with warnings of
more inflation ahead.
Food
inflation increased to four per cent year-on-year in July, against growth of
3.7 per cent in June and above the three-month
average of
3.5 per cent.
Fresh
food rose in price by 3.2 per cent, while cupboard foods – which includes tea –
rose by 5.1 per cent.
“Wholesale
prices for [staples] have been hit by tighter global supplies,” Helen
Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC, said.
“Families…
have seen their food bills increase as food price inflation rose for the sixth
consecutive month,” Dickinson added.
Pressures
on the UK’s food supply include higher
wage costs due to tax hikes in April, plus low yields due to extreme weather
and a crucial shortage of carbon dioxide used in farming.
“The
pressure on food and drink manufacturers continues to build… rising costs
are gradually making their way into the prices shoppers pay at the tills,”
sustainability director at The Food and Drink Federation (FDF), Balwinder
Dhoot, said.
Last
week, a report linked the UK’s food prices with weather extremes that “exceeded
all historical precedent prior to 2020”.
Household
budgets ‘coming under pressure’
Data
insights group Worldpanel has estimated that Brits’ average household spend at
the grocers has now reached £5,283 a year, a figure which could rise by
£275 by
the end of the year.
“Just
under two thirds of households say they are very concerned about the cost of
their grocery shopping, and people are adapting their habits to avoid the full
impact of price rises,” Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at
Worldpanel, said.
Mike
Watkins, head of retailer insight at NIQ, said: “Consumers’ household budgets
are coming under pressure with the food retailers now seeing price
increases above CPI.
“However,
price competition helped by promotional activity will still mean that shoppers
can save money by shopping around. With inflation on the up, high street
retailers will also be concerned about customer retention over the summer
holiday season if they are to maintain sales momentum.”
Price of fresh
food pushes up Brits' supermarket bills
Trump's
50% tariff on copper imports is set to start Friday. Here's what could happen.
Jul
29, 2025, 9:34:00 PM
Chile
seeks out an exemption, as the U.S. and E.U. look to create an alliance
The
U.S. is expected to implement a 50% tariff on copper imports at the end of the
week, but what happens next is anyone's guess as talk of an exemption for
Chile, the biggest U.S. supplier of the metal, and a potential U.S. and
European "metal alliance" heats up.
"There
remains uncertainty over country-based exemptions and a general sense of tariff
fatigue," wrote Natalie Scott-Gray, senior metals demand analyst at
StoneX, in a note Tuesday. The European Union, meanwhile, looks to get a break
when it comes to U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper.
---- President Donald
Trump's announcement on July 8 of the coming tariff had led to a 13% spike in
copper prices (HG00) that day, to settle at $5.6855 a pound, a record-high
finish at that time, based on data going back to 1968, according to Dow Jones
Market Data. The high price of copper contributes to concerns over inflation,
given the metal's use in most sectors of the economy, such as construction and
electronics.
Prices
reached a fresh record high on July 23 at $5.82, before a three-session retreat
and slight rise in prices Tuesday to $5.63. The Global X Copper Miners
exchange-traded fund COPX, which focuses on the performance of a broad range of
copper-mining firms, has fallen more than 2% week to date, giving back much of
last week's 3.1% rise.
It
is possible that "country-based exemptions may take shape" when U.S.
copper-import tariffs take effect on Aug. 1, she said. Chile's Finance Minister
Mario Marcel reportedly said his country would push for an exemption from the
tariff.
Scott-Gray
said that when it comes to a potential country-based tariff exemption, Chile is
"singled out," not just because of Marcel's comments and ongoing
negotiations this week, but because the U.S. is reliant on Chile's imports and
the fact that the U.S. holds a trade surplus with Chile, she said.
Scenario
outcomes
In
a scenario in which a country exemption, such as Chile, is outlined, StoneX
would expect - on Aug. 1 or earlier - a collapse in the Comex-LME arbitrage
from current levels, said Scott-Gray. Arbitrage is a strategy that takes
advantage of a difference in price for the same product on two or more markets.
The
three-month closing price for LME copper was at $9,793 per metric ton Monday.
Assuming about 2,204.6 pounds in one metric ton, that's about $4.44 a pound vs.
the Comex September copper contract price (HGU25) of $5.63 a pound.
If
no country exemptions are announced and tariffs come in at 50%, StoneX expects
the Comex-LME arbitrage to jump, in order to price in the full extent of
tariffs in the immediate aftermath, said Scott-Gray.
Under
that scenario, U.S. prices would remain elevated in the medium term as futures
supply risk arise once more, given that U.S. has a 44% reliance on copper
imports for demand, she said.
The
outlook for LME copper prices, meanwhile, would be more bearish near term, with
a "high U.S. tariff set to limit the attraction for units into the country
immediately," said Scott-Gray. The copper forward curve would likely
widen, as "material floods back to the LME warehouses."
Global
supply imbalance
There
is a risk that the U.S. would see a rapid increase in copper inflows ahead of
the tariff deadline, and StoneX understands that some material has been waiting
on ships outside the U.S. for the opportune time to be delivered, said
Scott-Gray.
In
a note last week, strategists at J.P. Morgan said the first half of this year
has seen a substantial amount of "front-loading" on U.S. copper
imports, with the "sharp pull-forward driven by anticipation of potential
tariffs." They said U.S. refined copper imports through May rose by 129%
year over year, "leading to an unprecedented build-up in inventory."
More
Trump's
50% tariff on copper imports is set to start Friday. Here's what could happen.
| Morningstar
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Graphene
membrane enables precise silver ion release for antimicrobial coatings
Jul 28, 2025
|
Researchers designed a graphene
oxide-based membrane that can release silver ions slowly and precisely over
time. (Nanowerk News) Researchers at
the National Graphene Institute have developed a new type of antimicrobial
coating that could improve hygiene across healthcare, consumer, and
industrial products. Working in partnership with medical technology company
Smith & Nephew, the team, led by Prof Rahul R Nair, has published its
findings in the journal Small ("Tunable Release of Ions from Graphene Oxide Laminates for
Sustained Antibacterial Activity in a Biomimetic Environment"). |
|
Silver has long been used to fight
bacteria, particularly in wound care, because of its ability to release ions
that damage bacterial cells. But current approaches come with downsides:
silver can be released too quickly or unevenly, it may damage surrounding
healthy tissue, and it's often used in quantities that aren’t sustainable. |
|
The Manchester team tackled these
issues by designing a graphene oxide-based membrane that can release silver
ions slowly and precisely over time. The key lies in the structure of the
membrane itself, its nanoscale channels act like filters, regulating how much
silver is released. |
|
"Our research represents a
paradigm shift in antimicrobial coating technology," states lead author
Prof Rahul R Nair. "By harnessing the potential of graphene oxide
membranes, we've unlocked a method for controlled silver ion release, paving
the way for sustained antimicrobial efficacy in various applications.” |
|
The team also created a testing model
that better reflects real biological conditions. By using foetal bovine serum
in lab trials, they could simulate the environment the coating would
encounter in the body, offering a clearer view of how it performs over time. |
|
“This approach allows us to deliver
just the right amount of silver for extended protection,” first author Dr
Swathi Suran adds. “It has potential in many areas, including wound care
dressings and antimicrobial coatings for implants, and could bring long-term
benefits for both patients and healthcare providers.” |
|
As the team looks ahead, they're
focused on exploring how this coating could be integrated into a range of
everyday and medical products, making bacterial resistance less of a hidden
threat and more of a manageable challenge. |
Graphene membrane enables precise silver ion release for antimicrobial
coatings
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Unless
we understand what it is that leads to economic and financial instability, we
cannot prescribe -- make policy -- to modify or eliminate it. Identifying a
phenomenon is not enough; we need a theory that makes instability a normal
result in our economy and gives us handles to control it.
Hyman Minsky
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