Friday, 18 July 2025

July 2025, More July 1929. It's Starting To Go Wrong.

Baltic Dry Index. 2030 +124           Brent Crude 69.89

Spot Gold 3335                   US 2 Year Yield 3.91 +0.03

US Federal Debt. 37.117 trillion

US GDP 30.142 trillion.

I made my money the old-fashioned way. I was very nice to a wealthy relative right before he died.

Malcolm Forbes

In the stock casinos, more July 1929. What could possibly go wrong? This time it’s different, right?

Stock futures are little changed after earnings, economic data lift S&P 500 to records: Live updates

Updated Fri, Jul 18 2025 7:40 PM EDT

Stock futures were little changed on Thursday evening after a batch of earnings and economic reports pushed the S&P 500 to a record close.

S&P 500 futures added 0.08%, while Nasdaq 100 futures inched up 0.07%. Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 49 points, or 0.1%.

Shares of streaming giant Netflix fell more than 1% in extended trading following its latest quarterly results. The company posted an earnings and revenue beat for the second quarter and raised its full-year revenue forecast.

The moves come after Wall Street saw a winning day. The S&P 500 finished 0.5% higher, closing at a new record after hitting an all-time high during the session. The Nasdaq Composite gained about 0.7%, also reaching fresh intraday and closing records. The Dow climbed 0.5%.

The broad market, along with the other two major averages, is currently on pace for a positive week, bolstered by optimism surrounding the latest earnings results. On Thursday, PepsiCo and United Airlines shares both popped after the respective companies beat analyst estimates on earnings. Those follow solid results from big banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs earlier in the week.

The index also moved higher on notable economic data, which signaled that the U.S. economy was holding up. Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 12 decreased from the prior week, and June’s retail sales reading surpassed expectations.

“I think this market deserves the benefit of the doubt, and what got you here is still the growth sectors,” Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer and chief market strategist at Truist, said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell.” “You put that together with also today the economic data showing the economy may be cooling, but it’s certainly not collapsing.”

“We would stick with the underlying trend, which still seems positive in our world,” he continued.

Investors are looking ahead to more earnings reports due out Friday. That includes 3M and American Express, both slated for release before market open.

Meanwhile, on the economic front, the Street is eyeing the preliminary reading for July consumer sentiment data. Economists polled by Dow Jones are expecting that to show a reading of 61.8, up from the prior reading of 60.7.

The major averages are on pace for positive weeks, with the S&P 500 up 0.6% through Thursday’s close and the 30-stock Dow on track for a 0.3% advance. The Nasdaq is the outperformer, heading for a 1.5% gain.

Stock market today: Live updates

CNBC Daily Open: The U.S. economy is not built on rock and roll

Published Thu, Jul 17 2025 9:42 PM EDT

Despite the noise around tariffs and inflation fears, the U.S. economy seems to be holding its ground — for now. June retail sales came in stronger than expected, and weekly jobless claims dropped below forecasts.

Add to that a solid start to earnings season, and you’ve got a recipe for record highs: both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched fresh peaks.

So, is the economy truly resilient in the face of the Trump administration’s shifting trade winds? Or are we simply in the eye of the storm, with August 1 — the Trump tariff deadline — looming on the horizon?

Remember, economic data is always a step behind. The real impact of tariffs may not show up for months, especially if businesses and consumers are stockpiling ahead of time and foreign exporters are cutting their prices.

Even when the new tariffs hit, the effects might be muted at first as inventories clear.

Still, for now, investors can take comfort in the fact that markets are being lifted by fundamentals — not just fear or speculation.

And yes, to borrow a line from Starship: the U.S. economy is still built on rock-solid data… not on rock and roll.

— Lim Hui Jie

What you need to know today

Netflix posts earnings beat. Revenue for the streaming giant grew 16% during the second quarter of 2025. The company also updated its full-year revenue forecast, noting that it expects revenue to be between $44.8 billion and $45.2 billion, up from a range of $43.5 billion to $44.5 billion, reflecting the weakening of the U.S. dollar, “healthy” member growth and ad sales, it said in a statement.

S&P and Nasdaq storm to new records. U.S. stocks climbed Thursday due to solid earnings and economic data, with the S&P 500 up 0.54% for a record close of 6,297.36 — its ninth this year. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.75% for its tenth record close of 2025, ending at 20,885.65. The pan-European Stoxx 600 gained 0.96% after a raft of earnings reports.

Trump takes aim at solar and wind projects. U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum will now have the final say on whether those projects can proceed on U.S.-owned lands, as a way of “levelling the playing field” for coal and natural gas “after years of assault” by Biden administration, according to an Interior Department’s internal memo Thursday.

Layoffs at Amazon continue. The company confirmed layoffs in its cloud computing division Thursday. The company declined to say which units within Amazon Web Services were impacted, or how many employees will be let go as a result of the job cuts, but AWS’ training and certification unit was one of the groups to see cuts, according to a memo viewed by CNBC.

[PRO] The U.S. consumer pushes back on recession fears. U.S. consumers appear to prove economic pessimists wrong this summer as they flex their spending muscle, according to June’s retail sales report. But some alternative data suggests that the consumer is hanging in there. 

CNBC Daily Open: The U.S. economy is not built on rock and roll

In other news.

Market watchers warn Trump might not ‘chicken out’ of 30% tariffs on the EU

Published Wed, Jul 16 20259 :07 AM EDT

Global investors may be underestimating U.S. President Donald Trump’s commitment to follow through on his latest tariff threats, some market watchers have warned.

In his latest trade policy update, Trump announced that he would be slapping 30% tariffs on goods imported to the U.S. from the European Union and Mexico from Aug. 1.

European markets had a muted reaction to the news, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index ending Monday’s session — the first after Trump sent his letter to the EU — 0.06% lower. Tuesday’s session saw a slightly deeper sell-off, with the index shedding 0.4%, but sentiment was largely dampened by economic growth concerns after U.S. inflation rose.

Compared with the rout seen in the immediate aftermath of the so-called “liberation day” announcement earlier this year, this week’s market moves mark a stark contrast in sentiment – even though the looming EU tariff rate is higher than the one drawn up back in April.

On April 3 – the day after Trump unveiled his reciprocal tariffs list that included a 20% blanket rate on EU goods – the Stoxx 600 lost 2.7%. The subsequent two sessions saw the index plummet 5% and 4.5%, respectively.

Part of the reason for the less severe reaction from markets might be due to investors doubling down on the so-called TACO – Trump Always Chickens Out – trade, in which market participants are trading assets with a firm belief that the White House’s tariff threats are merely a negotiating tactic that are unlikely to come to fruition.

Indeed, there appears to be a strong belief among many that a deal between the EU and the U.S. will be struck before Trump’s looming Aug. 1 deadline.

“When it comes to the most recent tariff threats, investors just aren’t getting worried,” Michael Field, European market strategist, at Morningstar, told CNBC in an email on Wednesday.

“Of course, you could put this down to complacency … but their experience of the last few months has shown that, so far, tariff threats have simply been a way of getting people to the negotiation table, and haven’t yet translated into a working policy.”

Others, however, have warned that this approach could see some investors getting burned by the expectation of deals being reached.

“I do believe these tariffs will ultimately be implemented. I don’t think the EU is going to give in as easily as Trump might hope,” Anthony Esposito, founder and CEO of Australian investment advisory AscalonVI Capital, told CNBC.

“This scenario likely contributes to lower global GDP growth, and it’s coming at a time when many of the EU’s largest economies are burdened with historically high sovereign debt levels.”

European officials have expressed optimism that Washington and Brussels are edging closer to the framework of a trade agreement, but it has also been made clear that the EU is ready to retaliate with countermeasures if its economic interests are damaged by tariffs.

Kevin Yin, VP of investment at Phoenix, Arizona-based Asterozoa Capital, argued that this time around, Trump has a greater incentive to follow through on his tariff threats.

“The TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) narrative has held so far, but now with domestic stock markets near all-time highs and largely complacent to continued tariff threats, Trump has additional leverage to continue his push which increases the chance of the 30% tariff rate coming to fruition,” he said in an email. “On the other hand, Trump and [Treasury Secretary Scott] Bessent have shown more sensitivity to the bond market, and the recent rise in yields may pressure the President and his team to back off.”

More

TACO trade: Trump might not ‘chicken out’ of 30% tariffs on EU

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

 Stagflation fears fuel interest rate conundrum at the Bank of England amid jobs bloodbath

17 July 2025

The Bank of England has an interest rate headache as the spectre of stagflation hangs over Britain.

Bleak figures from the Office for National Statistics yesterday showed unemployment at a four-year high of 4.7 per cent as Labour’s tax hikes cost jobs.

Borrowers will hope that the jobs bloodbath, combined with two months in a row of declining economic output, convinces the Bank to cut rates next month.

But the central bank is also grappling with surging inflation at a 17-month high of 3.6 per cent.

While a rate cut next month is expected, analysts warned it is far from certain. Charlie McCurdy, an economist at the Resolution Foundation, said: ‘The jobs data presents a clear case for lowering rates. 

But higher-than-expected inflation muddies the picture. The decision next month is far from straightforward.’

Central banks typically raise interest rates to control inflation and cut them when it is no longer a problem and the economy needs a lift.

The Bank has cut rates four times since last August – from 5.25 per cent to 4.25 per cent – and investors now think there will be fewer cuts for the rest of this year.

Simon French, economist at Panmure Liberum, expects two, having pencilled in four.

Matthew Ryan, at global financial services firm Ebury, said: ‘Things are going from bad to worse. 

'This week’s data puts the Bank in an extremely tough spot… an August rate reduction remains on the cards.’

Stagflation fears fuel interest rate conundrum at the Bank of England amid jobs bloodbath

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Bororphene, the next graphene? Approx. 6 minutes.

Is graphene in the past?! Found a new miracle material! | Watch

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Another weekend and another weekend closer to August 1, and the start of a new trade war disaster or giant TACO number two with the EU, after TACO number one with China?  Have a great weekend everyone.

It’s not the employer who pays the wages. Employers only handle the money. It’s the customer who pays the wages.

Henry Ford

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