Tuesday, 15 July 2025

US CPI Day. Will Trump’s Tariffs Start Showing Up? China, More TACO?

Baltic Dry Index. 1783 +120           Brent Crude 68.93

Spot Gold 3360                   US 2 Year Yield 3.90 unch.

US Federal Debt. 37.104 trillion

US GDP 30.136 trillion.

Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world. Fiat money in extremis is accepted by nobody. Gold is always accepted.

Alan Greenspan

As we await Uncle Sam’s latest consumer inflation data for June later today, it’s already turned out to be a boom day for communist China.

Exports are rising again and President Trump’s Nvidia semi-conductor export chip restrictions on sales to China, are over. Who won?

In US CPI data for June, will the first sign of Trump tariff inflation star showing up, or is June likely to be the last month of calm before the tariff inflation storm hits in H2 25?

Asia-Pacific markets mostly rise after China’s second-quarter growth beats estimates

Updated Tue, Jul 15 2025 12:13 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose Tuesday after China’s second-quarter economic growth topped analysts’ forecast.

The country’s gross domestic product expanded by 5.2% in the second quarter, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, surpassing the 5.1% growth forecast by economists polled by Reuters. However, the latest reading is weaker than the 5.4% growth registered in the first quarter.

Investors are awaiting second-quarter earnings on Wall Street and a key inflation reading after all three key benchmarks in the U.S. ended Monday’s session higher.

Asia stock markets today: live updates

China's exports jump 5.8% in June as tariffs reprieve prompts a rush of orders

14 July 2025

China’s exports accelerated in June as a reprieve on U.S. tariffs prompted a rush of orders by companies and consumers.

Exports climbed 5.8% from a year earlier, up from a 4.8% rise in May. Imports also recovered, growing 1.1% in the first increase so far this year, according to customs data released Monday.

Exports to the United States fell 16% but that was less than half the 34.5% drop seen in May.

After U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs of up to 245% on imports from China and Beijing responded with its own steep import duties, the two sides agreed to hold back to allow time for talks. But preliminary discussions between the two sides have yet to produce significant progress.

In the meantime, the Trump administration has hiked tariffs on imports from China by 35%, pending an Aug. 12 deadline for reverting to the higher tariffs Washington and Beijing have delayed for now.

The recovery in trade is expected to help boost economic growth in the April to June quarter. The Chinese government is due to report those figures on Tuesday.

China's exports jump 5.8% in June as tariffs reprieve prompts a rush of orders

Nvidia says it will resume H20 AI chip sales to China ‘soon,’ following U.S. government assurances

Published Mon, Jul 14 2025 10:28 PM EDT

Nvidia said Tuesday that it hopes to resume sales of its H20 general processing units to China, in a major win for the company that has suffered from U.S. export curbs.

The U.S. government in April told Nvidia it would require a license to sell the chips to China, the company said in a filing, effectively halting their sales. The H20 chips had been designed specifically to bypass earlier export controls on Beijing.

“The U.S. government has assured NVIDIA that licenses will be granted, and NVIDIA hopes to start deliveries soon,” the company said in a statement Tuesday.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang in recent months has ramped up his lobbying against export controls, arguing that they inhibited American tech leadership. In May, Huang said chip restrictions had already cut Nvidia’s China market share nearly in half.

The potential change in U.S. stance follows a meeting between Huang and U.S. President Donald Trump last week. During the talks, Huang had reaffirmed Nvidia’s support for the administration’s job creation and onshoring efforts, as well as the aim for America to lead in global AI, the company said.

Washington and Beijing last month agreed to a preliminary trade framework that allowed relaxing rare-earth export controls by China and easing of tech export curbs by the U.S.

Huang also announced a new “fully compliant” GPU — RTX PRO — saying it was ideal for smart factories and logistics. It was not clear if the reference was to the GPU being compliant with guidelines for exports to China.

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Nvidia says it hopes to resume H20 AI chip sales to China 'soon'

US Inflation Expected to Accelerate in June Over Tariffs

July 14, 2025 at 10:56 PM GMT+1

Economists have long warned of a tariff-driven boost to US inflation, and the next report on consumer prices will put their conviction to the test. For four months, consumer price index readings from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics have come in cooler than what economists predicted, and those forecasters are again warning of acceleration, with June data due Tuesday. Economists see price rises in tariff-exposed categories including furniture, toys, recreational goods and cars.

There’s widespread consensus among Federal Reserve officials and private-sector forecasters that inflation will turn higher during the summer as businesses start passing on President Donald Trump’s tariffs to consumers. While many firms chose to initially shield customers by stocking up on inventories in advance or even absorbing part of the higher costs at the expense of lower margins, some are now running out of options. Natasha Solo-Lyons

US Inflation Expected to Accelerate in June Due to Tariffs: Evening Briefing - Bloomberg

In other news.

In rare earth metals power struggle with China, old laptops, phones may get a new life

Published Sun, Jul 13 2025 10:55 AM EDT

As the U.S. and China vie for economic, technological and geopolitical supremacy, the critical elements and metals embedded in technology from consumer to industrial and military markets have become a pawn in the wider conflict. That’s nowhere more so the case than in China’s leverage over the rare earth metals supply chain. This past week, the Department of Defense took a large equity stake in MP Materials, the company running the only rare earths mining operation in the U.S.

But there’s another option to combat the rare earths shortage that goes back to an older idea: recycling. The business has come a long way from collecting cans, bottles, plastic, newspaper and other consumer disposables, otherwise destined for landfills, to recreate all sorts of new products.

Today, next-generation recyclers — a mix of legacy companies and startups — are innovating ways to gather and process the ever-growing mountains of electronic waste, or e-waste, which comprises end-of-life and discarded computers, smartphones, servers, TVs, appliances, medical devices, and other electronics and IT equipment. And they are doing so in a way that is aligned to the newest critical technologies in society. Most recently, spent EV batteries, wind turbines and solar panels are fostering a burgeoning recycling niche.

The e-waste recycling opportunity isn’t limited to rare earth elements. Any electronics that can’t be wholly refurbished and resold, or cannibalized for replacement parts needed to keep existing electronics up and running, can berecycled to strip out gold, silver, copper, nickel, steel, aluminum, lithium, cobalt and other metals vital to manufacturers in various industries. But increasingly, recyclers are extracting rare-earth elements, such as neodymium, praseodymium, terbium and dysprosium, which are critical in making everything from fighter jets to power tools.

“Recycling [of e-waste] hasn’t been taken too seriously until recently” as a meaningful source of supply, said Kunal Sinha, global head of recycling at Swiss-based Glencore, a major miner, producer and marketer of metals and minerals — and, to a much lesser but growing degree, an e-waste recycler. “A lot of people are still sleeping at the wheel and don’t realize how big this can be,” Sinha said. 

Traditionally, U.S. manufacturers purchase essential metals and rare earths from domestic and foreign producers — an inordinate number based in China — that fabricate mined raw materials, or through commodities traders. But with those supply chains now disrupted by unpredictable tariffs, trade policies and geopolitics, the market for recycled e-waste is gaining importance as a way to feed the insatiable electrification of everything.

“The United States imports a lot of electronics, and all of that is coming with gold and aluminum and steel,” said John Mitchell, president and CEO of the Global Electronics Association, an industry trade group. “So there’s a great opportunity to actually have the tariffs be an impetus for greater recycling in this country for goods that we don’t have, but are buying from other countries.”

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Rare earths conflict with China giving new life to old PCs, phones

In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value.

Alan Greenspan

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Where's the inflation? Not in stores — yet

July 14, 2025

It is one of those mysteries that drive economists and politicians a little bit crazy. 

The Trump Administration is raising tariffs in a bid to reset world trade. Tariffs usually cause prices to rise, but, to paraphrase the late Clara Peller, where's the inflation?

Probably it's on the way but slowly.

Business works that way. You can plug a lot of numbers into a spreadsheet and get immediate answers to questions like "How much inflation?" But the reality can and will be slow in emerging. 

So, the Trump Administration is arguing there is no real inflation threat, and the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates. The Fed's federal funds rate is a 4.25% to 4.5%. 

But critics will note that tariff increases only started in April, and goods coming into the United States might take two to three weeks to make the crossing from, say, Shanghai to Los Angeles.

Then, it takes time to get to the customers' warehouse and more time to arrive at their ultimate destination. 

And if the retailer guesses that tariffs would boost costs and brought inventory in before the tariffs took effect, then the prices may not reflect the added costs.

CPI and PPI reports expected to be subdued

So, two economic reports will test that theory this week: The Consumer Price Index report, due Tuesday, and the Producer Price Index report, due Wednesday.

Both are expected to show inflation ticking up slightly in June from May, though not by much. FactSet expects consumer prices to rise 0.23% on the month and 2.6% year-over-year. Excluding food and energy, the gains are expected to be as much as 3% year-over-year. 

Lord knows, the government is collecting a lot of tariff revenue: $27.2 billion in June and more than $113 billion so far in the 2024-25 fiscal year.  The fiscal year ends on Sept. 30.

Why the delay for an effect on the CPI: Because, probably, retailers are waiting for as long as possible to boost prices. Toyota  (TM)  is planning to raise its prices by an average $270 per vehicle starting in July. Walmart  (WMT) has already raised prices on toys and imported foods, like bananas. 

Economists from Bank of America expect that a rise in core goods prices will be the main driver of the acceleration of inflation in June, Morningstar's Sarah Hansen wrote in a Friday article. They cited “broad-based price hikes … owing in part to tariffs.” They are also looking for an uptick in prices in the services category, including hotels and airfares, as well as in medical services.

At the same time, the Producer Price Index report, due Wednesday, also show some acceleration of costs as well. It's an early signal of what consumer inflation might look like. To produce and deliver goods takes energy, and the price of crude  oil is up nearly 20% since their April bottom. But, again, it's early in the cycle.

More reports to watch for

Weekly jobless claims report. Due Thursday.  This measures worker filing for unemployment claims from the week before. It's a good early warning signal for the economy. 

The Fed's Beige Book report. Due Wednesday afternoon. The narrative report surveys all of the Federal Reserve Bank districts and should offer some insight as what price pressures businesses are seeing what they're doing to cope.

Home builder confidence. Due Thursday from the National Association of Home Builders. This report has shown how frustrated builders are about the state of the housing market. The problem many builders find now is that mortgage rates are still relatively high and, combined with stubbornly high prices, makes selling a new home difficult. 

Housing starts. Due Friday morning. This will quantify how active the new-home universe. Housing starts are a tricky number because they're imputed. Permits are a better gauge they measure approvals to start construction. 

Where's the inflation? Not in stores — yet 

There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be shaped into ingots, bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence.

Charles de Gaulle

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Solid-batteries just got real — and they’re rolling off production lines: What you need to know

14 July 2025

Backed by Chery and Gotion High-Tech, China’s Anoa New Energy (ANE) has started producing solid-state battery samples — and says mass production could begin as early as next year.

With 300 Wh/kg energy density, it's not revolutionary, but it’s real — and that's the biggest shift yet. 

ANE,  also known as Axxiva (founded in June 2020), shared their first batch of engineering samples of solid-state batteries, which rolled off their production line. 

ANE is focused entirely on solid-state battery development and production. It also aims to launch a gigawatt-hour level solid-state battery assembly.

The first-gen ANE batteries have an energy density of a somewhat disappointing 300 Wh/kg.

For context, Tesla's 4680 battery cells have an estimated energy density of around 270 Wh/kg, with a range between 244 to 296 Wh/kg.

Improvement

So 300 Wh/kg for these solid-state batteries isn’t amazing, but it's still a solid improvement — enough to offer very good range. Improving energy density by even 10% is significant.

Chery New Energy controls 10% of the company. Gotion High-Tech, another big battery player in China, holds 6%.

No-fire-no-explosion test

The first batch of solid-state batteries was produced at their Wuhu Economic and Technological Development Zone on July 4. These are engineering samples, but they’ve reportedly passed China's “no fire, no explosion” safety standards, meaning they are very safe and have undergone significant testing.

So, how many batteries will they actually make? 

The planned production capacity is 1.25 GWh, with a production speed of 20 metres per minute. They use laser “slitting technology” to reduce dust pollution during manufacturing, ensuring high precision and minimizing defects.

Dry manufacturing process

ANE reportedly uses a five-step dry manufacturing process, similar to Tesla’s, which reduces energy consumption and fixed asset investment, thanks to the use of dry electrode manufacturing method.

The site is expected to include a 5 GWh solid-state battery R&D center and a fully integrated automated production line.

Back to energy density: the current version is 300 Wh/kg. The second-gen version, expected in 2026, aims for 400 Wh/kg, and by 2027 they hope to reach 500 Wh/kg.

If that’s accurate, an 80 kWh battery with 500 Wh/kg energy density could provide a range of about 1,000 km — potentially more. A 100 kWh battery would offer even more range, and could be great for towing or long trips without worrying about range anxiety.

As for which vehicles will use them: apparently, the Chery Exlantix ET has been spotted driving with a solid-state battery — it’s even labeled on the vehicle. 

Chery plans to use them in their new electric cars. 

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Solid-batteries just got real — and they’re rolling off production lines: What you need to know

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

The gold standard makes the money's purchasing power independent of the changing, ambitions and doctrines of political parties and pressure groups. This is not a defect of the gold standard; it is its main excellence.

Ludwig von Mises

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