Baltic
Dry Index. 1443 -15 Brent Crude 68.61
Spot Gold 3350 US 2 Year Yield 3.78 unch.
US Federal Debt. 37.054 trillion
US GDP 30.110 trillion.
Quote: "I don't think we should have billionaires," said Zohran Mamdani, who just clinched the Democratic nomination for mayor of New York City. "Frankly, it is so much money in a moment of such inequality. There has to be a better distribution of wealth." The Big Apple not only houses the New York Stock Exchange (ICE) and Nasdaq (NDAQ) but is also the financial capital of the world, where the top 1% of the city's earners pay nearly half of all of its taxes, according to the NYC Independent Budget Office.
Who Wants To Be A Billionaire? | Seeking Alpha
It is the last trading day of the week for the US stock casinos, getting ready to celebrate Independence Day tomorrow, normally yet another day to dress up US stocks.
But with the latest US jobs report coming out before the regular opening, today’s stock casinos action will likely be driven by that report if it comes in weak or more unlikely, strong.
In Asian markets, a big yawn to President Trump’s latest trade deal with Vietnam.
Vietnamese stocks climb to highest in over three
years after Trump announces U.S.-Vietnam trade deal
Updated Thu, Jul 3 2025 12:38 AM EDT
Vietnamese stocks climbed to its highest
in over three years as investors await details on the U.S.-Vietnam trade
agreement that
President Donald Trump announced Wednesday.
The U.S. is imposing a 20% tariff on goods
imported from the Southeast Asian nation, while the latter will impose “ZERO
Tariff,” Trump said on Truth Social. This comes as the deadline for
Trump’s 90-day
tariff reprieve draws closer.
The benchmark Vietnam Index rose 0.3% to
its highest since April 2022, data from LSEG showed.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 slipped 0.15% and
the Topix lost 0.21%. South Korea’s Kospi added 0.77% and the small-cap Kosdaq
rose 0.5%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.13%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slipped
0.64%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 added 0.14%.
U.S. stock futures were little changed as
traders braced for June’s big jobs report in the U.S. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were
fractionally higher. Futures
tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 21 points, or less than
0.1%.
Overnight
stateside, the three major averages closed mixed. The S&P 500 scored
a fresh all-time intraday high and closed at another record. The Nasdaq Composite advanced
0.94% and posted a record close of 20,393.13. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped
10.52 points, or 0.02%, and ended at 44,484.42.
Asia
stock markets today: live updates
European stocks set to open higher as traders
monitor UK turbulence, await U.S. jobs report
Updated Thu, Jul 3 2025 12:36 AM EDT
Welcome to CNBC’s live blog covering all
the action and business news in European financial markets on Thursday.
Futures data from IG suggests European
markets will open higher, with London’s FTSE 100 looking set to open
0.3% higher at 8,799, Germany’s DAX 0.2% higher at 23,836,
France’s CAC 40 also
up 0.2% at 7,757 and Italy’s FTSE
MIB up 0.15% at 39,926.
The positive start in Europe comes after a
more mixed day on Wednesday, particularly for the U.K. where bond prices, as
well as the FTSE, tumbled
sharply.
Those moves came after U.K. Finance
Minister Rachel Reeves appeared visibly upset in Parliament on Wednesday as
pressure mounted on the government
over welfare reforms. The government said Reeves was dealing with a
“personal matter” and Prime Minister Keir Starmer later said she has his full
support.
U.S.
stock futures were little changed on Wednesday night as traders braced
for June’s nonfarm payrolls data. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect that
the economy added 110,000 jobs last month. That compares with
May’s gain of 139,000. Economists also see the unemployment rate
inching higher.
In
the Asia-Pacific region overnight, Vietnamese stocks climbed to their
highest in over three years as investors awaited further details on the
U.S.-Vietnam trade agreement that
President Donald Trump announced Wednesday.
The U.S. is imposing a 20% tariff on goods
imported from the Southeast Asian nation, while the latter will impose “ZERO
Tariff,” Trump said on Truth Social.
European
markets on Thurs July 3: Stoxx 600, FTSE, DAX, CAC
New Employment Numbers Ignite US Slowdown Worries
July 2, 2025 at 10:15 PM GMT+1
Employment at US companies fell in June
for the first time in more than two years, reflecting a drop in services
payrolls that may raise concerns about a more
pronounced labor market slowdown. Private-sector payrolls decreased
33,000 last month after a downwardly revised 29,000 gain in May, according to
ADP Research data released Wednesday.
None of the economists in a Bloomberg
survey expected a decline. The sobering numbers came a day after
Trump administration data showed job openings unexpectedly rose in
May as firings declined. That report exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg
survey of economists.
“Though
layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to
replace departing workers led to job losses last month,” Nela Richardson,
chief economist at ADP, said in a statement.
The ADP report, based on payrolls
covering more than 25 million US private-sector employees, also showed that
wage growth cooled. Workers who changed jobs saw a 6.8% increase in
pay, while those who stayed put saw a 4.4% gain. —David
E. Rovella
New
Employment Numbers Ignite US Slowdown Worries: Evening Briefing - Bloomberg
Microsoft laying off about 9,000 employees in
latest round of cuts
Published Wed, Jul 2 2025 9:07 AM EDT Updated
Wed, Jul 2 2025 4:11 PM EDT
Microsoft said
Wednesday that it will lay off about 9,000 employees. The move will affect less
than 4% of its global workforce across different teams, geographies and levels
of experience, a person familiar with the matter told CNBC.
The announcement comes on the second day
of Microsoft’s 2026 fiscal year. Executives at the Redmond, Washington-based
company typically unveil reorganizations at the time of the new fiscal year.
“We continue to implement organizational
changes necessary to best position the company and teams for success in a
dynamic marketplace,” a Microsoft spokesperson said in an email.
Microsoft has held several rounds of
layoffs already this calendar year. In January, it cut less
than 1% of headcount based on performance. The 50-year-old software
company slashed
more than 6,000 jobs in May and then at least 300 more in June. As of
June 2024 it employed 228,000 people. In 2023, it laid
off 10,000.
Perhaps the largest culling of Microsoft
workers came in 2014, when the company eliminated 18,000 after acquiring Nokia’s devices and
services business.
As was the case with the May layoffs,
Microsoft is looking to reduce the number of layers of managers that stand
between individual contributors and top executives, said the person who asked
not to be named while discussing internal matters.
More
Microsoft laying off about 9,000 employees in latest round of cuts
In other news.
Two die in Spain
wildfire, two deaths in France from European heatwave
2 July
2025
LONDON
(Reuters) -Wildfires have killed two people in Spain and two others have died
in France because of a heatwave that has gripped Europe and forced the closure
of a nuclear reactor at a Swiss power plant.
With
scorching temperatures again on Wednesday, Spanish officials said a wildfire in
Catalonia had killed two people a day earlier and France's energy minister
reported two deaths with a direct link to the heatwave, with 300 others taken
to hospital.
Italy
issued red alerts for 18 cities because of the extreme heat and Turkey has been
tackling wildfires in what meteorologists say is an "exceptional"
heatwave because it has come so early in Europe's summer.
The blaze
in Torrefeta in the Catalonia region of Spain destroyed several farms and
affected an area stretching for about 40 km (25 miles), official said. It was
largely contained though more wind and thunder storms were expected on
Wednesday.
----Authorities
in the Spanish city of Barcelona said on Tuesday they were also looking into
whether the death of a street sweeper at the weekend was heat-related.
Spain
experienced its hottest June on record this year, and France had its hottest
June since 2003, Energy Minister Agnes Pannier-Runacher said.
Weather
forecaster Meteo France said red alerts remained for several areas of central
France, but that heat was easing in the west, though intense thunderstorms with
possible heavy bursts of rainfall were expected in many parts of the east.
Temperature
highs were expected around 39 Celsius (102.2°F), with up to 34 C in Paris, and
36 C to 38 C in Strasbourg, Lyon, Grenoble and Avignon.
More
Two die in Spain
wildfire, two deaths in France from European heatwave
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Bank of England policymaker urges faster interest
rate cuts
Wednesday 02 July 2025 12:26
pm | Updated: Wednesday 02 July 2025
12:27 pm
Bank of England dove Alan Taylor has urged
his colleagues on the Monetary Policy Committee to vote for faster interest
rate cuts to allow a “soft landing” on the inflation path.
Bank officials voted to hold interest
rates at 4.25 per cent in June, with inflation bouncing back up to
3.4 per cent in April and May. Taylor was joined by deputy governor Dave
Ramsden and fellow external member Swati Dhingra in voting for a 25 basis
points cut.
In a speech delivered in Portugal, Taylor
urged the other six voters to consider the impact that global trade tensions
have had on demand, given their effect on growth.
Taylor said the expected slump in demand
due to a higher global average tariff rate should move rate-setters into voting
for more cuts to guide price growth down to the Bank’s two per cent
target.
“Previously, I had seen a UK soft landing
in the cards, with some remaining upside risks to inflation from the bump in
2025,” Taylor said.
“Now I see that soft landing as being at
risk, and greater probability of a downside scenario in 2026 pushing us off
track as demand weakness and trade disruptions build.”
Taylor suggested energy shocks remain a
“big unknown” given a recent jump and fall in oil prices after Israel and Iran
fired missiles at one another over two weeks.
He also suggested that Chancellor Rachel
Reeves’ tax hikes on employers, which kicked into effect in April, would “fade
out in the new year”.
Fears of a further weakening of the labour market meant the Bank had to
consider accelerating its interest rate-cutting cycle.
More
Bank
of England dove urges faster interest rate cuts
Trump
tariffs live updates: Trump suggests he won't extend tariff pause, floats
higher tariff level for Japan
Updated Wed
2 July 2025 at 1:30 pm BST
President
Trump on Tuesday suggested that his team would force Japan to accept higher
tariffs of "30%, 35%, or whatever the number is that we determine."
Notably, that proposal is higher than the 24% "Liberation Day" level
and the current baseline 10% tariffs in place while the two sides negotiate.
“I’m
not sure we’re going to make a deal," Trump said. "I doubt it with
Japan. They’re very tough. You have to understand, they’re very spoiled."
Trump's
tariff hike threat on Japan is a worst-case scenario for Tokyo. And if Trump
follows through, experts believe Japan will have no choice but to
respond.
“There
is some risk of a US tantrum that results in higher punitive actions by
Washington this month,” said Kurt Tong, a former senior US diplomat in Asia
who’s now a managing partner at the Asia Group. “If that happens, Japan may
have no choice but to hit back with its own specific
countermeasures.”
With
Japan as his jumping-off point, Trump renewed threats that he may stick to his
self-imposed July 9 deadline for making trade deals and issue new tariff levels
to trading partners, forgoing another pause to "Liberation Day"
duties.
"No,
I'm not thinking about the pause," Trump said aboard Air Force One when
asked if he would extend the tariff pause, per Bloomberg. "I’ll be
writing letters to a lot of countries."
The
president's comments come after a Financial Times
report Tuesday suggested
that Trump's team is aiming for smaller, quick agreements before July 9, when
Trump plans to bring back his toughest tariffs.
Top
administration officials have been providing mixed signals on the malleability
of the July 9 deadline while countries race to finalize talks. But on Monday,
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had warned that "recalcitrant"
countries would face a return of steep "Liberation Day" tariffs.
Meanwhile,
the European Union has signaled it was willing to accept a 10%
universal tariff on
many of its exports but is seeking exemptions for pharmaceuticals, alcohol,
semiconductors, and commercial aircraft as part of a trade deal,
Bloomberg reported.
On
the North American front, Canada has scrapped its digital services tax that was
set to affect large US technology companies. The White House said trade talks
between the two countries had resumed after Trump threatened to cut off trade
talks.
This
New Stagflation Coming Won’t Feel Like the ‘70s.
July
1, 2025
About
the author: Joseph Brusuelas is chief economist of RSM
US. His views do not represent the views of his employer.
Fifty
years ago, the U.S. economy was plagued with stagflation—a stubborn combination
of low growth, high unemployment, and elevated inflation. It was a true shock
driven by oil embargoes in the Middle East: Gas prices tripled, inflation hit
14%, and unemployment soared toward 9%.
I
can attest to tense rides in the gas-guzzling family car during periods of
gasoline rationing in my native Southern California. Policymakers and the
public ever since have lived in abject fear of returning to that painful
period.
While
the prospect of galloping, 1970s-style inflation remains low, today’s rising
prices are troubling to the younger generations of Americans who were reared on
the low inflation and interest rates of the ‘90s and 2000s. When combined with
a predicted
slowing of
the economy and a softening labor market, today’s economy has the makings of
what I call “stagflation lite.”
It
isn’t your father’s stagflation. This version will feel more like how Ernest
Hemingway described going bankrupt: gradually, then suddenly.
Unlike
in the ‘70s, this time around, the U.S. is energy independent. It exports more
oil than it imports and is far less dependent on oil as domestic manufacturing
has declined. The rise of natural gas and alternative sources of energy also
played an important role in this transition. The decreased dependency on oil
helps temper inflation if the price of energy imports were to rise.
The
labor market also looks different now. The ‘70s ushered women and baby boomers
into the labor force, creating a labor surplus. Today, we are short of workers.
Boomers are retiring, just as stricter immigration policies are culling the
labor supply. And that shift in the number of available workers could, along
with President Donald Trump’s import tariffs, be a potential game changer for
the economy.
Should
the immigration crackdown achieve its goal—and there is no reason to expect it
won’t, given the $168 billion Congress has proposed in its spending bills to
step up enforcement—economists may soon be explaining to a stunned public how
constraints on the labor supply raise prices. Put simply, having fewer workers
pushes up wages. Higher wages increase inflation and—most insidious of
all—raise the expectation that elevated inflation will continue.
This
is how stagflation lite will begin.
Federal
Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly warned of these risks, most recently
in his congressional
testimony last
week. Policy-induced disruptions in trade, oil production, and immigration will
put upward pressure on inflation and downward pressure on growth. In addition,
major fiscal policy changes, such as the tax cuts and spending measures
Congress is considering, will lead to large annual operating deficits. That
will only add fuel to inflation.
These
changes, in turn, will place constraints on the Fed’s ability to cut rates this
year and beyond. Structurally higher interest rates will follow, and those
rates will crowd out private investment and slow hiring.
More
This New
Stagflation Coming Won’t Feel Like the ‘70s.
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
|
|
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World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
“The
inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent
virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries.”
Winston S. Churchill
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