Baltic
Dry Index. 1434 -09 Brent Crude 68.58
Spot Gold 3340 US 2 Year Yield 3.88 +0.10
US Federal Debt. 37.058 trillion
US GDP 30.112 trillion.
A Happy US Independence Day to those readers celebrating today.
The American colonies, all know, were greatly opposed to taxation without representation. They were also, a less celebrated quality, equally opposed to taxation with representation.
John Kenneth Galbraith
With US stock casinos closed today celebrating Independence Day, Asian and European markets will likely fret over next week’s looming Trump tariff deadlines of July 8th and 9th.
Next week, the US stock casinos will likely worry over the differing US jobs pictures provided by ADP v the BLS jobs figures released yesterday.
Another complication, later today President Trump will sign into law his “Big Beautiful Bill” of spending, tax breaks and welfare reform. I wonder what could possibly go wrong with welfare reform?
Little need for my input today.
Tomorrow, more on that Air India 787-8 crash, with the preliminary findings due for release by July 11th.
Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed ahead of Trump’s
deadline for higher tariffs
Updated Fri, Jul 4 2025 12:19 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Friday
as investors await details on the U.S.′ trade deals ahead of U.S. President
Donald Trump’s deadline for higher tariffs next week.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 benchmark
declined 0.13% in choppy trade while the broader Topix index lost 0.22%.
In South Korea, the Kospi index declined by
1.41% while the small-cap Kosdaq dropped by 1.86%.
Mainland China’s CSI 300 index added 0.41% in
choppy trade, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.62%.
Over in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was flat.
Meanwhile, India’s benchmark Nifty 50 and BSE
Sensex started the day flat.
Overnight
stateside, a better-than-expected
jobs report eased investors’ concerns of a slowdown in the U.S.
economy and pushed the S&P
500 and Nasdaq
Composite to fresh record highs.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced
344.11 points, or 0.77%, settling at 44,828.53. The S&P 500 added
0.83% to close at 6,279.35, while the Nasdaq gained 1.02% and ended at
20,601.10. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite also closed at
records.
U.S. markets are closed on Friday for the
Independence Day public holiday.
Asia stock markets today: live updates
Trump Set to Sign Tax-and-Spend Bill That Reshapes
Domestic Policy
July 3, 2025 at 10:00 PM GMT+1
President Donald Trump secured a sweeping
shift in US domestic policy as the House of Representatives narrowly
passed his tax and spending bill.
The $3.4
trillion fiscal package, passed by a vote of 218-214, cuts taxes,
curtails spending on safety-net programs and reverses much of former President
Joe Biden’s efforts to move the country toward a clean-energy economy. The
House now sends the legislation to Trump, in time for a July 4 deadline he set.
The president leveraged his sway over the
Republican Party through threats of primary challenges, White House lobbying
sessions and golf-course socializing to overcome resistance from both
conservative hardliners concerned about the measure’s debt impact and
swing-state GOP moderates worried about the scale of Medicaid cuts.
In the end, only two
Republicans, Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Brian
Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, joined with Democrats to oppose the bill.
In a futile attempt to
block a final vote on the massive
bill, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries spoke for 8 hours and 45
minutes, breaking the record for the House’s longest “magic minute” floor
speech. “This legislation will end Medicaid as we know
it,” Jeffries said during the marathon speech. “Rural hospitals will
close, nursing homes will close.” —Jordan
Parker Erb
Trump
Set to Sign Tax-and-Spend Bill That Reshapes Domestic Policy - Bloomberg
U.S. payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, more
than expected
Published
Thu, Jul 3 20258:30 AM EDT
Job growth proved better than expected in
June, as the labor market showed surprising resilience and likely taking a July
interest rate cut off the table.
Nonfarm payrolls increased a
seasonally adjusted 147,000 for the month, higher than the estimate for 110,000
and just above the upwardly revised 144,000 in May, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics reported Thursday. April’s tally also saw a small upward revision,
now at 158,000 following an 11,000 increase.
The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the
lowest since February and against a forecast for a slight increase to 4.3%. A
more encompassing rate that includes discouraged workers and those holding
part-time positions for economic reasons edged down to 7.7%.
Though the jobless rates fell, it was due
largely to a decrease in those working or looking for jobs. The labor force
participation rate fell to 62.3%, its lowest level since late 2022 as the labor
force, owing to an increase of 329,000 of those not counted in the labor force.
The household survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, showed
a smaller gain of just 93,000.
Stock market futures held positive
following the report while Treasury yields rose sharply in a trading session
that will end early ahead of the Independence Day holiday in the U.S.
“The solid June jobs report confirms that
the labor market remains resolute and slams the door shut on a July rate cut,”
said Jeff Schulze, head of economic and market strategy at ClearBridge
Investments. “Today’s good news should be treated as such by the markets, with
equities rising despite the accompanying pickup in interest rates.”
Along with the solid payroll gains and
fall in the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings increased 0.2% for the
month and 3.7% from a year ago. The average work week moved slightly lower to
34.2 hours.
Government employment posted a large gain,
leading all categories with an increase of 73,000 due to solid boosts in state
and local hiring, particularly in education-related jobs. Federal government,
which is still feeling the impact of cuts from Elon Musk’s Department of
Government Efficiency, lost 7,000.
In addition, health care again was strong,
adding 39,000, while social assistance contributed 19,000.
The report comes with an intensified focus
on where the Fed heads with monetary policy as signs increasingly appear of a
slowing labor market while President Donald Trump’s tariffs thus far have
produced a muted impact on inflation.
Trump has demanded the Fed lower its
benchmark interest rate, which it has kept steady in a range between 4.25%-4.5%
since December. Along with that, the president on Wednesday up the stakes,
saying in a Truth Social post that Powell “should resign immediately.”
For his part, Powell has kept a cautious
tone on policy. In an appearance Tuesday, the central bank leader said that
while every meeting is on the table for a rate cut, the strength of the U.S.
economy is affording time to evaluate the incoming data.
Market pricing shifted strongly following
the payrolls report, with traders all but taking the chance of a July rate cut
off the table. Odds for a July move fell to 4.7%, down from 23.8% on Wednesday,
according to the CME Group’s FedWatch. The market continues to see the next
reduction not coming until September and also reversed expectations for three
total cuts this year, with the likelihood now reduced to two.
There had been some speculation ahead of
the report that a weak number was possible, with private payrolls service ADP
on Wednesday reporting a loss of 33,000. However, the BLS report showed a gain
of 74,000.
Those getting jobs titled strongly to
full-time positions, which increased by 437,000. Part-time workers fell by
367,000.
As trade war truce with China holds, US lifts
curbs for chip design software and ethane
July 3, 2025 8:20 AM GMT+1
NEW YORK, July 3 (Reuters) - The United
States has lifted restrictions on exports to China for chip design software
developers and ethane producers, a further sign of de-escalating U.S.-Sino
trade tensions including concessions from Beijing over rare earths.
Synopsys (SNPS.O), opens
new tab,
Cadence Design Systems (CDNS.O), opens
new tab and
Siemens (SIEGn.DE),
opens new tab,
three of the world's largest electronic design automation (EDA) software
developers, said on Wednesday they are restoring access to their software and
technology for customers in China.
Earlier in the day, the U.S. also sent
letters to ethane producers to rescind a restrictive licensing requirement on
exports to China imposed in late May and June.
The restrictions on EDA software
developers and ethane producers were just some of many countermeasures imposed
by U.S. President Donald Trump's administration in response to China's export
suspension of rare earths and related magnets in April.
Beijing's move on rare earths, part of
retaliation against Trump's earlier tariffs this year, has upended supply
chains central to automakers, aerospace manufacturers, semiconductor companies
and military contractors. The issue threatened to scupper a bilateral trade
deal.
On Friday, China's commerce ministry said
that following talks with the U.S., the two sides have confirmed a framework
under which China will review export applications for controlled items while
the U.S. will cancel corresponding restrictive measures.
"The U.S. have escalated to
de-escalate. They put restrictions on many more items in order to get the
Chinese to back off on rare earths," according to a source familiar with
discussions inside the U.S. government.
"As the U.S. and China continue to
hold to this framework agreement, we're gonna see a lot of these restrictions
go away. Going back to a status quo, where we were at in Feb/March," said
the source who was not authorised to speak to media and declined to be
identified.
EDA RELIEF
Siemens said in a statement that it has
resumed sales and support for Chinese customers after it was recently notified
by the U.S. Department of Commerce that export control restrictions for
customers in China were no longer in place.
Its shares rose 1.7% after market open on
Thursday.
Synopsys expects to complete system
updates to restore access and support to Chinese customers within three
business days, according to a company letter to staff seen by Reuters.
The U.S. Department of Commerce did not
immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comment.
Long-term restrictions on Chinese access
to EDA software would have significantly hampered China's chip design industry.
Synopsys, Cadence and Siemens command more than 70% of China's EDA market,
Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported in April.
It was not immediately clear if other
countermeasures imposed by the U.S. have been lifted. These include the
suspension of licenses for GE Aerospace to ship jet engines for the C919
aircraft of Chinese airplane maker COMAC (CMAFC.UL) and for nuclear equipment
suppliers to
sell to Chinese power plants.
As trade war truce
with China holds, US lifts curbs for chip design software and ethane | Reuters
US lets GE restart jet engine shipments to China’s
COMAC, source says: Reuters
Published Thu, Jul 3 2025 10:07 PM EDT
The U.S. told GE Aerospace Thursday
that it
can restart jet engine shipments to China’s COMAC,
according to a person familiar with the matter, in a further sign of
de-escalating U.S.-Sino trade tensions that included concessions from Beijing
over rare earths.
The United States this week also lifted
restrictions on exports to China for chip design software
developers and ethane producers, suggesting trade talks between the two
countries are moving forward.
License suspensions and new license
requirements on the different exports had been issued several weeks ago as part
of the ongoing trade war between the world’s two biggest economies.
GE did not respond to an email
request for comment, nor did the Commerce Department, which
notified GE it could restart shipments.
Licenses for GE Aerospace
affect engines sold to China’s state-owned aerospace
manufacturer COMAC, which wants to compete internationally against
dominant plane makers Airbus and Boeing.
A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in
Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The restrictions were among the many
countermeasures imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration in
response to China’s export restrictions on rare earths and related
magnets in April.
Beijing’s move on rare earths, part of
retaliation against Trump’s earlier tariffs this year, has upended supply
chains central to automakers, aerospace manufacturers, semiconductor companies
and military contractors. The issue threatened to scupper a bilateral trade
deal.
The license suspensions lifted
for GE affect LEAP-1C engines to COMAC for its C919
single-aisle aircraft, and GE’s CF34 engine for COMAC’s
C909 regional jet, according to the person familiar, who declined to be
identified because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
The LEAP 1-C engines are the product
of a joint venture between GE Aerospace and France’s Safran.
The C919 is made in China but many of its
components come from overseas.
At least one other aerospace company also
had its license suspensions for China lifted on Thursday, according to another
person, who declined to identify the company.
Honeywell Aerospace has
supplied COMAC’s C919, too, providing an auxiliary power system, wheels
and brakes, flight control package, and navigation package. Honeywell did not
return a request for comment.
More
US
lets GE restart jet engine shipments to China's COMAC, source says: Reuters
In other news, tinned goods Del Monte 1.0
gets canned. Get ready for Del Monte 2.0 Lite.
Beloved grocery staple Del Monte Foods files for
bankruptcy
2 July 2025
An American grocery staple just went
bankrupt. Del Monte Foods, the 138-year-old company behind some of America's
most recognizable pantry staples, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy
protection.
For decades, the company has produced
canned fruits and vegetables for American grocery consumers. The food producer
filed for bankruptcy protection late Tuesday night. Del Monte said it plans to
sell itself as part of an agreement with key lenders and will continue normal
operations during the process.
To keep things running, Del Monte secured
$912.5 million in financing. Del Monte's portfolio extends beyond canned corn
and peaches — it also shelves household names like College Inn, known for soup
broth, and Joyba's bubble tea.
But shifting consumer habits have left the
brand struggling to stay relevant, Sarah Foss, the head of legal and
restructuring at Debtwire, told DailyMail.com. 'Del Monte says that consumer
demand has declined causing it to incur increased costs related to surplus
inventory,' she said.
'Consumer preferences have shifted away
from preservative-laden canned food in favor of healthier alternatives.' The
company, once a dominant force in US grocery aisles, now finds itself with
between $1 billion and $10 billion in estimated assets and liabilities. Its
filing lists up to 25,000 creditors.
'This is a strategic step forward for Del
Monte Foods,' CEO Greg Longstreet (pictured) said. 'After a thorough evaluation
of all available options, we determined a court-supervised sale process is the
most effective way to accelerate our turnaround and create a stronger and
enduring Del Monte Foods.'
The company said it will continue non-US
grocery sales during the filing as well. Some of its global enterprises are not
included in the court filing. It is the latest food-supplying company that has
become insolvent, Foss added. 'Del Monte is the fourth company in the food and
beverage sector to file for Chapter 11 this year, and the fifteenth since the
beginning of 2024,' she said.
Earlier this year, Hearthside Foods
emerged from its bankruptcy and rebranded as Maker's Pride. Harvest Sherwood
Food Distributors also filed for Chapter 11 in May. Meanwhile, household names
are reporting some headwinds.
Campbell's, the company behind the
title-name soups and popular snacks from Pepperidge Farm, posted a profit of
$66 billion in its latest earnings. The company said it saw a
larger-than-expected boost in its low-cost soup sales. Meanwhile, it said
consumers were cutting back on snack spending.
'Consumers are cooking at home at the
highest levels since early 2020,' the food maker's CEO, Mick Beekhuizen, said
during the earnings call. The company's meal growth and snack decline reflect
how many Americans are responding to slumping consumer sentiment reports and
higher costs in grocery stores.
Beloved grocery
staple Del Monte Foods files for bankruptcy
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
The
only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.
John
Kenneth Galbraith
But yesterday’s BLS jobs report suggests the opposite.
Who’s right, who’s wrong? Which will Fed Chairman Powell believe?
'Can
anyone spell recession?' Trump slammed as jobs report stuns economists
July
2, 2025
Payrolls
processing firm ADP reported private sector hiring contracted unexpectedly in
June, with private payrolls losing 33,000 jobs.
The
news came as a surprise because economists polled by Dow Jones in the weeks
ahead of the ADP report had forecast an increase of 100,000 jobs for the month,
despite growth in May being revised to just 29,000 jobs rather than 37,000.
The
bulk of job losses happened in professional and business services and health
and education, according to ADP, with the Midwest and Western regions seeing
the strongest contractions.
Social
media exploded at the news, partially because economists had predicted a more
stable and robust economy weathering the impact of President Donald Trump’s
incessant tariff threats.
“Can
anyone spell RECESSION?” posted New York
legislator Jon Cooper.
“This
must be a huge problem for Joe Biden, right?” quipped YouTube host
David Pakman, referring to Trump’s habit of blaming
his predecessor for
economic bumps in Trump’s economy.
Pakman
pointed out that the job losses amounted to the first “in over two years,”
while political analyst Marco Frieri demanded: “Is that what
they call ‘Making America Great Again’?”
On
the same day of the ADP report, Chamber of Progress Director Tahra Hoops noted
Trump congratulating himself on the strong U.S. economy.
“THIS
GROWTH has already begun at levels never seen before,” Trump declared on Truth
Social, which prompted Hoops to wonder what world Trump was inhabiting.
“He
lives in an alternate universe,” Hoops posted. “… It's clear
employers are growing weary over Trump tariff impacts and just the continuing
levels of uncertainty,” Hoops added.
Public
Notice writer Aaron Rupar, meanwhile, noticed Trump’s allies at Fox news
initially playing down or ignoring the bad news.
'Can anyone spell
recession?' Trump slammed as jobs report stuns economists
Car
making giant threatens factory closures due to EV sales pressures
3
July 2025
Another
major car manufacturer has said it may be forced to close factories as the
motor industry faces headwinds linked to mounting pressure to transition to
electric vehicles.
Stellantis
- the parent company of massive brands including Citroen, Fiat, Peugeot and
Vauxhall to name just a few - said it may be forced to shutter vehicle plants
due to the risk of hefty European Union fines levied for not complying
with CO2 emission targets.
European
head of the Franco-Italian auto maker Jean-Philippe Imparato says
EU-based car manufacturers will must sell more EVs to cut CO2 emissions or
risk penalties as part of the bloc's efforts to hit air pollution
targets.
It
comes just months after the European motor sector successfully lobbied for more
time to comply with rules, with fines to be based on 2025-2027 emissions rather
than just in 2025.
However,
Imparato says even these more relaxed targets are 'unreachable' for car makers
and will expose his company to fines of up to €2.5billion (£2.15bn) within
'two-to-three years'.
Stellantis
earlier this year closed Vauxhall's 100-year-old Luton van factory, putting
1,100 jobs at risk. When it announced the move in November, it partly
attributed the decision to the UK Government's stringent EV sales
targets.
Speaking
at a conference in the lower house of parliament in Rome on Tuesday, the former
Alfa Romeo CEO (which is also owned by Stellantis) said that without
significant changes in the regulatory situation by the end of this year, the
company would 'have to make tough decisions'.
To
achieve the targets set out by the EU, Stellantis either needs to double its
electric vehicle sales - which Imparto said would be impossible - or cut the
production of petrol and diesel cars to artificially increase its share of EV
deliveries.
The
latter would see internal combustion engine (ICE) cars rationed for customers
at a time when many are not ready to commit to EVs and could hammer the
manufacturer's sales volumes.
More
Car
making giant threatens factory closures due to EV sales pressures
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
HG goes green
on cranes in £1.2m switch to battery power
3 July 2025
HG Construction is phasing out diesel
generators on its tower cranes after pumping £1.2m into site battery systems in
a major move to decarbonise its operations.
The contractor is rolling out UK-made
Revolution Battery units from Dumarey Green Power across it sites, following a
successful trial that saw costs and emissions slashed by over 90%.
The first wave of installations are in
London at Canada Street Phase 2 and 55 West Ealing sites, alongside an already
live unit at Trocoll House in Barking.
Further deployments are planned across
upcoming jobs in the Midlands and North of England.
During trials, a single battery system
powered two Moritsch RTL 195 luffing cranes from a 32A 3-phase mains supply –
replacing two 200kVA diesel generators running up to 60 hours per week.
Trial savings
- Weekly fuel bills slashed from £1,400 to £80 per crane
- Emissions down from 3,000kg to under 200kg CO₂ per week
- Smaller, quieter and more reliable than diesel units
HG chief executive Adam Quinn said: “The
performance of the Revolution Battery during the trials was exceptional –
reducing carbon emissions and running costs by over 90%. These results speak
for themselves.”
He added the investment supports HG’s
wider net-zero targets and commitment to buying from local suppliers wherever
possible.
The Revolution Battery works differently
to traditional BESS systems by decoupling energy storage from output power.
That means fewer battery cells are needed, reducing weight, size, and embedded
carbon. If mains power is not available, a 40kVA generator can charge the unit
in under three hours daily.
HG goes green on cranes in £1.2m switch to battery power | Construction
Enquirer News
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
There
can be few fields of human endeavor in which history counts for so little as in
the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory
at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of the those who do not have
insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.
John Kenneth Galbraith
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