Thursday, 24 July 2025

An EU Tariff Deal? Americans To Pay More. ECB Decision Day.

Baltic Dry Index. 2120 +85           Brent Crude 68.78

Spot Gold 3381                 US 2 Year Yield 3.88 +0.05

US Federal Debt. 37.142 trillion

US GDP 30.155 trillion.

"I was alarmed at my doctor's report: He said I was a sound as a dollar."

Ronald Reagan, 40th United States President.

The Financial Times is reporting that the USA and EU are close to a trade deal modelled on that of Japan’s trade deal.

One way or another US consumers are about to pay more for US imports.

The stock casinos, like higher tariffs for now. But for how long?

Later today, the ECB decision on their key interest rate. No change is widely expected.

Japan’s Topix hits record high as Asia-Pacific stocks climb on trade deal optimism

Updated Thu, Jul 24 2025 11:30 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets opened higher as the latest trade developments between the U.S. and Japan, as well as positive signs for a deal with the European Union, spurred investor optimism.

Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 climbed 0.78% to a record close of 6,358.91 — its 12th of the year.

Trump to visit Federal Reserve, escalating campaign against Chair Powell

U.S. President Donald Trump will visit the Federal Reserve on Thursday, the White House said, escalating his pressure campaign against Chairman Jerome Powell.

This is the first time in nearly two decades that an American president has made an official trip to the central bank.

The White House released a schedule on Wednesday that stated Trump would visit the Federal Reserve at 4:00 p.m. ET on Thursday.

Read the full story here.

— Anniek Bao

China markets open flat

Mainland China and Hong Kong stocks opened flat amid a swathe of green in the region.

Both mainland China’s CSI 300 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index were flat.

The Hang Seng Tech Index, which tracks the largest technology companies listed in Hong Kong, fell 0.18%.

Asia stock market live updates: U.S.-Japan trade deal

S&P 500 futures are little changed after Alphabet, Tesla post earnings: Live updates

Updated Thu, Jul 24 2025 7:48 PM EDT

S&P 500 futures were little changed on Wednesday night after the benchmark notched another record close, fueled by hopes for progress on trade deals.

Futures tied to the index climbed 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures were about 0.4% higher. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 104 points, or 0.2%.

“Magnificent Seven” megacap stocks Alphabet and Tesla reported their earnings after Wednesday’s bell. Alphabet rose 2% after posting a second-quarter earnings and revenue beat, while Tesla was last down 4% in volatile trading after investors were disappointed by a drop in auto revenue for the second straight quarter. IBM shares slipped 5%, weighing on Dow futures, after the company’s second quarter software revenue missed expectations.

Earlier on Wednesday, the S&P 500 added 0.78% to hit its 12th record close of the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.14%, or 507.85 points — about four points away from a new record close. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.61% and settled above the 21,000 level for the first time.

Stocks were boosted by more bullish developments on the trade front this week. On Tuesday night, President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post that his administration had reached a “massive Deal” with Japan, which includes 15% “reciprocal” tariffs on goods from the nation.

The major averages also caught a tailwind when the Financial Times reported that the U.S. was making progress towards a deal with the EU. Bloomberg confirmed the progress, citing diplomats briefed on the negotiations. This trade deal would introduce similar levies of 15% on goods coming to the U.S. from the bloc.

More

Stock market today: Live updates

Germany’s auto giants rally as U.S.-Japan trade deal raises hopes of a tariff breakthrough

Published Wed, Jul 23 2025 3:26 AM EDT

Shares of Europe’s top carmakers jumped on Wednesday after the U.S. and Japan’s blockbuster trade agreement raised hopes of a tariff breakthrough for other major exporters.

In a post on social media platform Truth Social, Trump described the “massive” trade agreement as “perhaps the largest Deal ever made.”

The deal is expected to mean U.S. tariffs on imported Japanese vehicles and parts will fall to 15%, a significant drop from the existing 25% rate that is levied across countries.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba welcomed the trade agreement, saying it marks “the lowest figure among countries that have a trade surplus with the U.S.,” according to Reuters.

The Stoxx Europe autos index rose 4.1% on Wednesday morning, putting it on track for its biggest daily gain since mid-February, according to LSEG data.

Germany’s VolkswagenBMW and Mercedes-Benz Group were all up more than 5% on the news at 11:04 am London time (6:04 am ET), while luxury automaker Porsche soared 7.3%.

Milan-listed shares of Jeep maker Stellantis was also up around 7.1%.

The gains followed a sharp upswing for Japanese autos stocks. Toyota surged over 14%, with domestic peers Honda and Nissan up 11% and 8%, respectively.

In a speech that followed his Truth Social post, Trump said the U.S. and Japan were concluding an additional deal involving liquified natural gas, adding that “we have Europe coming in tomorrow,” without specifying details.

The automotive sector is widely regarded as acutely vulnerable to tariffs, particularly given the high globalization of supply chains and the heavy reliance on manufacturing operations across North America.

The VDA, Germany’s auto industry association, called on the EU to double down on its efforts to reach a U.S. trade deal.

“In view of the trade agreement announced today between the USA and Japan, a solution to the tariff conflict between the EU and the USA is all the more crucial. Efforts to find a negotiated solution must be further intensified,” VDA President Hildegard Müller told CNBC by email.

More

Autos: U.S.-Japan trade deal raises hopes of an EU tariff breakthrough

US and EU close in on 15% tariff deal

Agreement would mirror accord with Japan and head off Trump’s threat to raise duties to 30%

23 July 2025

The EU and US are closing in on a trade deal that would impose 15 per cent tariffs on European imports, similar to the agreement Donald Trump struck with Japan this week.

Brussels could agree to the so-called reciprocal levies to avoid the US president’s threat to raise them to 30 per cent from August 1, three people familiar with the situation told the Financial Times.

“The Japan agreement made clear the terms of the shakedown,” said one EU diplomat. “Most member states are holding their noses and could take this deal.”

Both sides would waive tariffs on some products, including aircraft, spirits and medical devices, the people said.

The European Commission, which runs EU trade policy, briefed envoys from member states on Wednesday following talks with US counterparts.

News of the prospective deal boosted the euro, which recouped earlier losses to trade flat on the day against the dollar. US stocks extended gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.6 per cent.

The US has been charging an extra 10 per cent tariff on EU exports since April while talks between Washington and Brussels continued. That was on top of pre-existing duties averaging 4.8 per cent.

The people said they understood the 15 per cent minimum tariff would include those existing duties, so Brussels views a deal on those terms as cementing the status quo. Tariffs on cars, which are currently 27.5 per cent, would therefore fall to 15 per cent.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he heard a deal to end the trade dispute between the US and the EU would be agreed imminently.

 “We are hearing this very minute that there could be a decision” on trade, Merz said, as he welcomed French President Emmanuel Macron in Berlin for bilateral talks.

Trump imposed higher, sectoral tariffs on cars and car parts earlier this year using national security laws. EU officials have pushed hard for carve-outs to those tariffs for European carmakers.

Two of the people said the deal struck between the US and Japan had pushed Brussels towards grudging acceptance of a higher reciprocal tariff rate to avert a damaging trade war.

The EU could still retaliate if Trump tried to push further or followed through on his threat to raise reciprocal duties to 30 per cent from August.

hat could include activating its anti-coercion instrument (ACI) — its so-called trade bazooka. Never before used, the ACI would give Brussels leeway to block US companies from public tenders, revoke intellectual property protection and restrict imports and exports. 

The bloc will continue to prepare a possible €93bn package of retaliatory tariffs, set at up to 30 per cent, in case they could not agree a deal by August 1, the people added.

More

US and EU close in on 15% tariff deal

US booze sales tank in Canada as tariffs hit

22 July 2025

  • Canadian sales of US liquor have fallen by over 66 per cent, and 80 per cent in Ontario, following a boycott initiated by the Liquor Control Board of Ontario.
  • The boycott began in response to tariffs imposed by Trump, who has since threatened a new 35 per cent tax on Canadian imports, citing fentanyl concerns.
  • Ontario Premier Doug Ford has urged Canadians to 'buy local' in retaliation, emphasising Canada's economic power.
  • The boycott has also led to a 13 per cent decrease in overall spirit sales in Canada, affecting producers on both sides of the border.
  • Canada represents the second-largest export market for American liquor, making the trade dispute particularly impactful for the US spirits industry.

US booze sales tank in Canada as tariffs hit

In other news, is flying getting more dangerous?

Delta flight was traveling 60 mph down runway when AeroMéxico plane landed in front of it

23 July 2025

Delta flight was traveling 60 mph down a runway in Mexico City on Monday when an AeroMéxico plane landed in front of it.

The Delta Air Lines Boeing 737 jet bound for Atlanta had to stop its takeoff and return to its terminal at Benito Juarez International Airport after an AeroMéxico Embraer 190 regional jet flew over the plane and landed in front of it on the same runway, according to multiple reports.

FlightRadar24, a flight tracking site, showed the two aircraft about 200 feet apart, according to the reports.

The Delta flight, which had 144 passengers and six crew members on board, departed to Atlanta about three hours late, CNN reported.

Delta and AeroMéxico both said in separate statements obtained by ABC News the companies were cooperating with authorities as the incident is investigated. Both airlines said maintaining passenger safety was their number one priority.

ABC reported on air traffic control recordings from the incident, in which the Delta pilot was reportedly heard saying, "We are holding on the runway.” Another voice can be heard in the recordings saying, “Wow" and "Increíble."

The Independent has reached out to the Federal Aviation Administration and Mexico’s civil aviation agency for comment.

Steve Ganyard, an ABC News aviation contributor and former fighter pilot, explained what could have gone wrong in the near collision.

"There are parallel runways at Mexico City. So we don't know if the controller told the Aeromexico aircraft to land on the left-hand and not the right-hand runway where the Delta jet was," he said.

The aviation expert continued: "We also don't know, perhaps the tower controller didn't understand that they had cleared the Aeromexico aircraft to land while simultaneously clearing the Delta jet to take off."

Delta flight was traveling 60 mph down runway when AeroMéxico plane landed in front of it

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Goldman Sachs warns of slower US growth amid rising tariff pressures

July 22, 2025

Goldman Sachs is forecasting a notable slowdown in US economic growth, citing the inflationary impact of rising tariffs and the resulting pressure on consumer spending.

According to a note to clients from the bank’s chief economist, Jan Hatzius, the firm expects gross domestic product (GDP) to increase at an annual rate of just 1.1% through 2025.

The projected drag on real income from higher prices is anticipated to outweigh the positive effects of looser financial conditions.

“Even a one-time price increase will eat into real income, at a time when consumer spending trends already look shaky,” Hatzius wrote.

While recent retail sales have shown resilience, Goldman believes overall spending stagnated during the first half of the year, something that rarely happens outside of a recessionary environment.

In the first quarter, GDP contracted at a 0.5% annualized pace, with consumer spending rising just 0.5%.

Tariff risks could push inflation higher

A key concern driving Goldman’s cautious outlook is the potential impact of President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs.

The firm expects so-called reciprocal tariffs to reach an effective rate of 15%, up from a prior estimate of 10%.

This would result in a 14 percentage point increase in the average effective tariff rate in 2025, with an additional three-point rise projected for 2026.

These tariff-related price pressures are expected to push inflation higher in the near term. Goldman anticipates that core inflation, as measured by the Federal Reserve’s preferred personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, will rise to 3.3% in 2025.

Inflation is then expected to gradually moderate to 2.7% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027, still above the Fed’s long-term 2% target.

As a result of these projections, Goldman places the probability of a recession at 30%, roughly double the typical baseline risk.

The firm also suggested that heightened tariff pressures could pose risks to employment and supply chains, potentially warranting more aggressive interest rate cuts than are currently expected.

Mixed economic signals complicate outlook

Despite the more cautious forecast, some indicators continue to show signs of underlying economic strength.

Consumer sentiment, as tracked by the University of Michigan, has rebounded from earlier lows experienced following Trump’s initial tariff announcement on April 2.

Inflation expectations have also receded, returning to levels seen before what some termed “liberation day.”

Additionally, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model currently estimates second-quarter GDP growth at an annualized pace of 2.4%, indicating a stronger performance compared to the contraction seen in Q1.

Nonetheless, the outlook remains uncertain. Hiring has slowed but remains in positive territory, and while inflation is trending down, it continues to exceed the Fed’s 2% target.

As the economic impact of tariffs continues to unfold, Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to adopt a cautious, wait-and-see policy stance, while remaining prepared to adjust interest rates if conditions deteriorate further.

Goldman Sachs warns of slower US growth amid rising tariff pressures

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

COVID-19 Made Our Brains Age Faster

July 22, 2025

COVID-19 is leaving all kinds of legacies on our health, both on our bodies and our brains. In a study published July 22 in Nature Communications, researchers report that living through the pandemic aged our brains—whether or not you were infected with COVID-19.

To investigate COVID-19's impact on the brain, researchers looked at brain scans from 1,000 people during and before the pandemic. They compared these to brain scans from other people taken during "normal" times as a model for typical brain aging.

Led by Ali-Reza Mohammadi-Nejad from the University of Nottingham School of Medicine in the U.K., the researchers looked at measures like brain function, gray and white matter volume, a person's cognitive skills, and their chronological age. Gray matter is critical for memory, emotions, and movement, while white matter is essential for helping nerves transmit electrical signals.

The pandemic-era brains aged about 5.5 months faster compared to the brains of those studied before the pandemic. The accelerated aging was documented in people who had COVID-19 infections as well as those who didn’t, which strongly suggests that pandemic-related factors other than biological or virus-driven ones—like high stress—were also at work. In fact, the changes in gray and white matter were similar in people who were and were not infected.

“This finding was interesting and rather unexpected,” says Mohammadi-Nejad. Other studies have already shown that the COVID-19 virus can change the brain for the worse, but "we found that participants who simply lived through the pandemic period, regardless of infection, also showed signs of slightly accelerated brain aging. This highlights that the broader experience of the pandemic—including disruptions to daily life, stress, reduced social interactions, reduced activity, etc.,—may have had a measurable impact on brain health.”

COVID-19 Made Our Brains Age Faster

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

New solar cells capture sunlight from both sides for more power

July 23, 2025

A team of researchers in South Korea has developed an advanced solar cell that can absorb sunlight from both the front and back, boosting energy output without needing more space.

This new “bifacial” solar technology is based on thin-film solar cells made from copper, indium, and selenium (CuInSe₂), and it’s designed to work on transparent surfaces.

The work was led by Daehwan Kim and Shijoon Sung at the Daegu Gyeongbuk Institute of Science & Technology (DGIST), and their findings were published in Advanced Energy Materials.

Unlike traditional solar panels, which only collect light from the front, bifacial solar cells take in sunlight from both directions.

This makes them especially useful in environments where reflected light is available—such as on rooftops, glass buildings, or above reflective surfaces like snow or concrete.

Until now, one of the major obstacles in making these advanced cells was the need for high manufacturing temperatures, which damage the transparent materials used in bifacial cells.

The DGIST research team found a way around this problem.

They developed a method to produce CuInSe₂ solar cells at a much lower temperature—below 420°C. They also introduced silver (Ag) during the manufacturing process, which helped form high-quality material even at these reduced temperatures.

This breakthrough allows the solar cells to be made on transparent electrode materials, which are more heat-sensitive but essential for bifacial designs.

To further boost performance, the team added gallium (Ga) to the bottom layer of the solar cell.

This created a gradient in the material that helped move electric charges more efficiently and reduced energy loss, improving how well the cells convert sunlight into electricity.

The result is a record-setting bifacial thin-film solar cell. On the front side, the cell achieved an efficiency of 15.3%, while the back side reached 8.44%.

Combined, this gave a bifacial power generation density of 23.1 milliwatts per square centimeter—among the best results ever achieved for solar cells on transparent materials.

This new technology has exciting potential for many applications. It could be used in building-integrated solar panels, where solar cells are part of windows or walls.

It’s also a strong candidate for use in agriculture, where sunlight passes through the panels to support plant growth below. Additionally, these bifacial cells could be used in multi-layer “tandem” solar cells for even greater energy efficiency.

Lead researchers Kim and Sung say this work opens the door for more efficient and versatile solar panels in the future, especially for use in environments where both sides of a panel can capture sunlight.

New solar cells capture sunlight from both sides for more power

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

FIAT CURRENCY

A currency whose value is whatever it is decreed to be, undetermined by market forces.

One Italian Lira US Dollar, Pound, Euro, Yuan.

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