Wednesday, 16 July 2025

US PPI Day. Tariffs Raise CPI To 2.7%? Food Inflation Next.

Baltic Dry Index. 1866 +83             Brent Crude 68.86

Spot Gold 3338                   US 2 Year Yield 3.95 +0.05

US Federal Debt. 37.108 trillion

US GDP 30.138 trillion.

 July 16, 1661. First banknotes in Europe are issued by the Bank of Stockholm.

So, we can all blame the Swedes for fake money!

In the stock casinos, a mixed reaction to yesterday’s CPI report and President Trump saying he has a trade deal with Indonesia.

President Trump backing down on semi-conductor chip sales to China was great for China and Nvidia, and through Nvidia, the NASDAQ.

On to today’s US Producer Price Index inflation report. Look away from the US 30 year Treasury yield back at 5 percent again.

Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed after Trump’s tariffs on Indonesia

Updated Wed, Jul 16 2025 12:05 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed after U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday that he had reached a preliminary trade agreement with Indonesia, which includes a provision for a 19% tariff on the country’s exports to the U.S.

Indonesia’s central bank was set to release its policy decision later in the day.

Here are today’s highlights and a live snapshot of how markets are faring:

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Asia stock markets today: live updates

Stock futures slip as investors await more bank earnings and inflation data: Live updates

Updated Wed, Jul 16 2025 12:13 AM EDT

Stock futures ticked lower on Tuesday evening, as investors awaited earnings releases from several big banks and the latest wholesale inflation report.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average pulled back 105 points, or 0.2%, while S&P 500 futures lost almost 0.3%. Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.3%.

In the regular trading session, the S&P 500 lost 0.4% and the Dow fell more than 400 points. The Nasdaq Composite outperformed, however, rising about 0.2% and posting a record close. The tech-heavy index got a boost from shares of Nvidia, which rose 4% after the company said it hopes to resume its H20 AI chip sales to China “soon.”

June’s consumer inflation report weighed on markets Tuesday, with the headline figures showing a 0.3% increase on the month and a 12-month rate of 2.7%, in line with the Dow Jones consensus.

The reading has fueled some concern for Wall Street, showing the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs as they make their way through the economy. Trump over the weekend fanned the flames of his trade war after he announced a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico and the European Union beginning Aug. 1.

“Inflation has started a slow climb as signs of tariff-induced inflation are now evident within durable and nondurable imports,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM U.S. “That prompts an important question: Will service and housing inflation, which is easing but still elevated, cool further to offset what will be a more pronounced increase in durable and nondurable goods?”

“Our sense is that the Federal Reserve will continue to display patience as the direction of inflation evolves,” he added.

Investors will get another inflation reading on Wednesday as June’s producer price index report rolls out. Dow Jones consensus estimates call for a 0.2% increase on a month-to-month basis. Several central bank representatives will be speaking as well, including Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Fed Governor Michael Barr.

On the earnings front, major banks continue to report with Bank of AmericaGoldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley sharing details before the bell. Results from Johnson & Johnson are also on deck.

Stock market today: Live updates

European stocks set for downbeat open after U.S. inflation data, tariffs fuel growth concerns

Updated Wed, Jul 16 2025 12:23 AM EDT

Good morning from London, and welcome to CNBC’s live blog covering all the action and business news in European financial markets on Wednesday.

Futures data from IG suggests regional markets will start the week flat to lower, with London’s FTSE 100 unchanged and both France’s CAC 40 and Germany’s DAX expected to open 0.2% lower. Italy’s FTSE MIB is seen opening 0.35% higher.

The downbeat mood for regional markets comes after a difficult start to the week, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced last weekend that he would impose a 30% tariff on goods imported from the EU starting Aug. 1.

Hope that the bloc will negotiate a trade deal with the White House before the end of the month was outweighed Tuesday by global growth concerns after data showed U.S. inflation rose to 2.7% from 2.4% in June.

— Holly Ellyatt

What to keep an eye on today

Earnings season is upon us, with ASMLRichemont and Handelsbanken announcing their latest financial results on Thursday.

On the data front, we have the latest U.K. inflation print for June and EU trade data.

— Holly Ellyatt

European markets on Weds July 16: Stoxx 600, DAX, FTSE, UK inflation

US Inflation Data Comes in Cool But Signals Tariff Bite

July 15, 2025 at 10:30 PM GMT+1

Economists have long warned of collateral damage from Donald Trump’s trade war, but after four months of cooler-than-predicted numbers, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday again reported that US inflation rose less than expected. However, unlike in previous months, the new data signaled that some companies are indeed starting to pass tariff-related costs on to consumers. 

As overall prices rose 2.7% in June from a year earlier, appliances jumped the most in nearly five years, toys increased at the fastest pace since early 2021 while household furnishings and sports equipment climbed by the most since 2022.  Inflation Insights President Omair Sharif pointed out that excluding cars, core goods prices climbed 0.55% in June—the biggest monthly advance since November 2021. “Today’s report showed that tariffs are beginning to bite,” he said in a note.

That said, the report has a little bit of everything for Federal Reserve policymakers who are divided as to whether tariffs will cause a one-time price shock or something more persistent. There’s evidence of tariff pass-through for officials inclined to keep interest rates elevated, and yet few signs of a broader reverberation for those who are ready to lower them.

Investors still expect the central bank to leave rates unchanged once again at its meeting in two weeks. Economists expect price pressures to intensify in the next few months, especially if Trump follows through on his latest threats of new levies against the European Union and other countries. Jordan Parker Erb

The expectation that the Fed will stay the course was bad news for Treasury yields, which resumed climbing. Short-dated yields most sensitive to changes in the Fed’s policy rate led the move, rising more than four basis points as yields across tenors reached the highest levels in several weeks. The 30-year bond’s yield touched 5% for the first time since early June. 

----The US housing market is losing steam, with prices in more than half of the country’s top 100 housing markets now below their peak. The annual nationwide price increase slowed to 1.3% in June, the slowest pace in two years and down from 1.6% the previous month. Persistently high mortgage rates, which make monthly payments unaffordable for many Americans, continue to drag on housing demand.

Inflation Data Comes in Cool But Signals Tariff Bite: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg

In other news, 1929-1932 2.0 here we come. Get gold, held out of the larcenous reach of Uncle Scam and John Bull.

Japan bond yields hit multi-decade highs as fiscal fears mount ahead of election

Published Tue, Jul 15 2025 12:32 AM EDT

Japan’s benchmark 10-year government bond yield climbed to its highest level since 2008 on Tuesday as concerns about fiscal spending mount ahead of an upper house election.

Yields on the 10-year instrument climbed to 1.599%, the highest since 2008, data from LSEG showed. Yields on the 30-year JGB also rose to a record high of 3.21%, while Japan’s 20-year government bond yields spiked to their highest level since 1999.

“Japan’s long yields and super-long yields are currently rising due to expectations of fiscal expansion after the Upper House election coming up next week,” said Ken Matsumoto, Japan macro strategist at Credit Agricole CIB.

A sizable number of Japanese politicians and parties are actively discussing consumption tax cuts ahead of the upper house election set to take place Sunday.

Japan Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has maintained that he will not resort to tax cuts funded by more debt issuance, although opposition parties are calling for tax cuts and more spending, which could lead to more debt.

This political uncertainty is creating doubt over whether Japan’s government will stick to fiscal discipline, said Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho Securities’ head of macro research for Asia ex-Japan.

Japan has one of the world’s highest levels of public debt relative to the size of its economy. While the government has flagged the need for more fiscal discipline, it relies heavily on issuing new debt to fund its obligations. Tax revenues alone are insufficient to cover the government’s expenses.

“The most recent trigger is the election. People are concerned about the election because the politicians are talking about consumption tax cuts, and tax cuts of any sort in Japan is suicidal,” said Amir Anvarzadeh, Japan equity market strategist at Asymmetric Advisors, who added that tax cuts would be dire given the fiscal situation that Japan is facing.

“This is why the bond vigilantes are out. And they’re saying: we need more yield to invest in the bond market. So there’s a shorting [going on] in the JGB market,” he told CNBC.

Aside from the upcoming election, there are underlying factors at play that could bring forward the Bank of Japan’s next rate hike. While still at elevated levels, Tokyo’s inflation eased to 3.1% year on year in June, slower than the 3.6% in May.

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Japan bond yields surge as fiscal fears mount ahead of election

EU ready to hit US with 21-billion-euro tariff list, Italy foreign minister says

Mon, July 14, 2025 at 6:50 AM GMT+1

MILAN (Reuters) -The European Union has already prepared a list of tariffs worth 21 billion euros ($24.52 billion) on U.S. goods if the two sides fail to reach a trade deal, Italy's Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said in a newspaper interview on Monday.

President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened to impose a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico and the EU starting on Aug. 1, after weeks of negotiations with major U.S. trading partners failed to reach a comprehensive deal.

Tajani also told daily Il Messaggero that to help the euro zone economy the European Central Bank should consider a new "quantitative easing" bond-buying-programme, and more interest rate cuts.

The European Union said on Sunday it would extend its suspension of countermeasures to U.S. tariffs until early August and continue to press for a negotiated settlement.

Tajani said the 21-billion-euro package of tariffs the EU has already prepared could be followed by a second set if a deal with the U.S proves impossible. He added, however, that he was confident that progress could be made in negotiations.

"Tariffs hurt every one, starting with the United States," he said. "If stock markets fall that puts at risk the pensions and the savings of the Americans."

He said the goal should be "zero tariffs" and an open market among Canada, the United States, Mexico and Europe.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Sunday he would work intensively with French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to resolve the escalating trade war with the United States.

European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic said on Monday that Washington and Brussels were approaching a positive outcome for both sides, and warned that a 30% tariff would practically eliminate trade.

EU ready to hit US with 21-billion-euro tariff list, Italy foreign minister says

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

CPI, the start of Trump’s tariffs cost push inflation?

Inflation picks up again in June, rising at 2.7% annual rate

Published Tue, Jul 15 2025 8:31 AM EDT

Consumer prices rose in June as President Donald Trump’s tariffs began to slowly work their way through the U.S. economy.

The consumer price index, a broad-based measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.3% on the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.7%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The numbers were right in line with the Dow Jones consensus.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core inflation picked up 0.2% on the month, with the annual rate moving to 2.9%, also matching the respective estimates.

Prior to June, inflation had been on a generally downward slope for the year, with headline CPI at a 3% annual rate back in January and progressing gradually slower in the subsequent months despite fears that Trump’s trade war would drive prices higher.

While the evidence in June was mixed on how much influence tariffs had over prices, there were signs that the duties are having an impact.

Vehicle prices fell on the month, with prices on new vehicles down 0.3% and used car and trucks tumbling 0.7%. However, tariff-sensitive apparel prices increased 0.4%. Household furnishings, which also are influenced by tariffs, increased 1% for the month.

Shelter prices increased just 0.2% for the month, but the BLS said the category was still the largest contributor to the overall CPI gain. The index rose 3.8% from a year ago. Within the category, a measurement of what homeowners feel they could receive if they rented their properties increased 0.3%. However, lodging away from home slipped 2.9%.

Elsewhere, food prices increased 0.3% for the month, putting the annual gain at 3%, while energy prices reversed a loss in May and rose 0.9%, though they are still down marginally from a year ago. Medical care services were up 0.6% while transportation services edged higher by 0.2%.

CPI inflation report June 2025:

Jul 15, 2025 5:21 PM GMT

Why Tomatoes Are Becoming a Lot More Expensive

Food prices have been quickly climbing for years now, and now there’s another staple that could see prices soon shoot up: tomatoes.

Mexican tomatoes are immediately being slapped with a 17% tariff, the U.S. Dept. of Commerce said on July 14, announcing it was withdrawing from a 2019 agreement that suspended tariffs on tomatoes imported from Mexico. 

That could affect a lot of grocery store tomatoes. Although the fruit—or vegetable, depending on who you ask—is also grown in Florida, about 70% of fresh tomatoes consumed in the U.S. are imported, and the majority come from Mexico, says David Ortega, a food economist at Michigan State University.

Although the price of a bunch of tomatoes may only increase by a few dozen cents, the increase comes at a time when consumers are already sick of inflation, and when tariffs threatened by the Trump Administration could further drive up prices, he says.

“This is one of the most widely consumed fruits or vegetables in the U.S., and it’s important to put it in the context of consumers’ experience with food prices over the past few years,” Ortega says. “They’re stretched thin, and even a few cents adds up, especially for low-income households.” 

----U.S. consumers may not see the effect of the new tariffs until the fall, says Ortega, because tomatoes are currently in season in the U.S. We rely on imported tomatoes more heavily in the winter. 

Why other food prices are going up, too

The levying of tomato tariffs came a day before new government inflation data showed that food prices were continuing to rise. The Consumer Price Index, or CPI, showed that prices of beef and veal were up 10.6% in June from a year ago, that egg prices were up 27.3% and that coffee prices were up 13.4%. Overall, inflation rose 2.7% from a year ago.

The rising prices of beef, eggs, and coffee are not directly related to tariffs, says Ortega. The price of beef is going up because a 2022 drought made it too expensive for farmers to keep livestock, and now the cattle inventory in the U.S. is extremely low. Americans still demand beef, though, so low supply and high demand is causing prices to surge.

Egg prices increased from a year ago because of avian flu, although their price actually fell from a month ago. And coffee prices are climbing because climate change has affected crops in places like Brazil and Vietnam, Ortega says.

Still, tariffs aren’t helping: U.S. producers depend on certain types of lean beef from Brazil to make ground beef, for instance, Ortega says, and the 10% tariff on almost all food imports is making that more expensive. 

Those 10% tariffs are affecting other food products as well.

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Why Tomatoes Are Becoming a Lot More Expensive | TIME

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

New Covid-19 variant prompts holidaymakers to mask up to help stop spread

14 July 2025

new variant of Covid-19 (also known as Coronavirus) emerged at the start of the year, and already makes up more than 30% of cases in the UK and more than 42% of cases in Spain. This variant on the illness more easily beats immunity, experts say, and may prompt mask-wearing in certain areas again.

The new subvariant is known as XFG, nicknamed Stratus. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has designated it a "variant under monitoring".

A new variant, which causes a hoarse throat, seems to be more easily transmitted to individuals who have previously had COVID-19. This indicates that UK holidaymakers travelling to countries like Spain, where the variant is more common, may be at a higher risk of falling ill.

Experts suggest that wearing masks could be a good measure to prevent the spread of this illness.

A variant under monitoring indicates a variant that requires prioritised observation due to its potential additional threat. As of June 25, XFG was one of seven variants being monitored.

Paul Griffin, professor of Infectious Diseases and Microbiology at The University of Queensland, said: "XFG is a recombinant of LF.7 and LP.8.1.2 which means these two subvariants have shared genetic material to come up with the new subvariant."

He added: "While recombination and other spontaneous changes happen often with SARS-CoV-2, it becomes a problem when it creates a subvariant that is changed in such a way that its properties cause more problems for us."

Professor Griffin said: "Early laboratory studies have suggested a nearly two-fold reduction in how well antibodies block the virus compared to LP.8.1.1."

More

New Covid-19 variant prompts holidaymakers to mask up to help stop spread

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

In totally useless news.

Electric car drives 1,205 kilometres on single charge in world record

July 14, 2025

In a sign that range anxiety in electric cars could soon be a thing of the past, US manufacturer Lucid says one of its cars was able to cover 1,205 kilometres on a single battery charge - a new world record.

The feat comes as the driving range of an electric vehicle remains a key selling point, with many would-be buyers of electric cars still put off by fears of running out of battery on longer journeys.

Lucid announced in July that its Air Grand Touring covered a distance of 1,205 km on a journey from Sankt Moritz in Switzerland via Austria to Munich. However, some motoring pundits have reacted cautiously to the record, arguing it has little impact on electric mobility.

This trip secured the manufacturer an entry in the Guinness Book of Records for beating the previous record by a solid 160 kilometres. A Mercedes electric had set the record only a few weeks ago in June.

The five-seat Lucid is admittedly one of the most powerful EVs in the world, delivering a massive 831 horsepower, albeit for an equally massive price upwards of $110,000.

The saloon reaches a top speed of 270 km/h - far faster than most electric cars. Meanwhile its ultra-fast charging capability means that the Lucid's battery can regain up to 400 kilometres of range in just 16 minutes, the maker says.

Commenting on the record, industry expert Stefan Bratzel from the Center of Automotive Management (CAM) told the mass-circulation Bild newspaper: "The range race continues, although a long range is becoming less important."

Bratzel called the record a "marketing gag" with limited relevance to everyday motoring. Ferdinand Dudenhöffer from the Center for Automotive Research (CAR) said the range of EVs has improved considerably in recent years and is not far removed from that of diesel vehicles.

Electric car drives 1,205 kilometres on single charge in world record

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Near the top of the market, investors are extraordinarily optimistic because they've seen mostly higher prices for a year or two. The sell-offs witnessed during that span were usually brief. Even when they were severe, the market bounced back quickly and always rose to loftier levels. At the top, optimism is king, speculation is running wild, stocks carry high price/earnings ratios, and liquidity has evaporated. A small rise in interest rates can easily be the catalyst for triggering a bear market at that point.

Martin Zweig

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