Baltic
Dry Index. 1866 +83 Brent Crude 68.86
Spot Gold 3338 US 2 Year Yield 3.95 +0.05
US Federal Debt. 37.108 trillion
US GDP 30.138
trillion.
So, we can all blame the Swedes for fake money!
In the stock casinos, a mixed reaction to yesterday’s CPI report and President Trump saying he has a trade deal with Indonesia.
President Trump backing down on semi-conductor chip sales to China was great for China and Nvidia, and through Nvidia, the NASDAQ.
On to today’s US Producer Price Index inflation report. Look away from the US 30 year Treasury yield back at 5 percent again.
Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed after Trump’s
tariffs on Indonesia
Updated Wed, Jul 16 2025 12:05 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed after
U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday that he had reached a preliminary
trade agreement with Indonesia, which includes a provision for a 19% tariff on
the country’s exports to the U.S.
Indonesia’s central bank was set to
release its policy decision later in the day.
Here are today’s highlights and a live
snapshot of how markets are faring:
- Asia
chip stocks continue
to climb after U.S. lifts export curbs to China
- Indonesia
stocks climb
marginally after U.S.-Indonesia trade deal
- Trump
says crypto regulation bills that failed to advance earlier now
have the votes to move forward
More
Asia
stock markets today: live updates
Stock futures slip as investors await more bank
earnings and inflation data: Live updates
Updated Wed, Jul 16 2025 12:13 AM EDT
Stock futures ticked lower on Tuesday
evening, as investors awaited earnings releases from several big banks and the
latest wholesale inflation report.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average pulled
back 105 points, or 0.2%, while S&P 500 futures lost
almost 0.3%. Nasdaq 100
futures slipped 0.3%.
In the regular trading session, the S&P 500 lost 0.4% and
the Dow fell more
than 400 points. The Nasdaq
Composite outperformed, however, rising about 0.2% and posting a
record close. The tech-heavy index got a boost from shares of Nvidia, which rose 4% after the
company said it hopes to resume its H20
AI chip sales to China “soon.”
June’s consumer
inflation report weighed on markets Tuesday, with the headline figures
showing a 0.3% increase on the month and a 12-month rate of 2.7%, in line with
the Dow Jones consensus.
The reading has fueled some concern for
Wall Street, showing the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs as they
make their way through the economy. Trump over the weekend fanned the flames of
his trade war after he
announced a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico and the European Union
beginning Aug. 1.
“Inflation has started a slow climb as
signs of tariff-induced inflation are now evident within durable and nondurable
imports,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM U.S. “That prompts an
important question: Will service and housing inflation, which is easing but
still elevated, cool further to offset what will be a more pronounced increase
in durable and nondurable goods?”
“Our sense is that the Federal Reserve
will continue to display patience as the direction of inflation evolves,” he
added.
Investors will get another inflation
reading on Wednesday as June’s producer price index report rolls out. Dow Jones
consensus estimates call for a 0.2% increase on a month-to-month basis. Several
central bank representatives will be speaking as well, including Richmond Fed
President Thomas Barkin and Fed Governor Michael Barr.
On the earnings front, major banks
continue to report with Bank of
America, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley sharing details
before the bell. Results from Johnson
& Johnson are also on deck.
Stock
market today: Live updates
European stocks set for downbeat open after U.S.
inflation data, tariffs fuel growth concerns
Updated Wed, Jul 16 2025 12:23 AM EDT
Good morning from London, and welcome to
CNBC’s live blog covering all the action and business news in European
financial markets on Wednesday.
Futures data from IG suggests regional
markets will start the week flat to lower, with London’s FTSE 100 unchanged and both
France’s CAC 40 and
Germany’s DAX expected
to open 0.2% lower. Italy’s FTSE
MIB is seen opening 0.35% higher.
The downbeat mood for regional markets
comes after a difficult start to the week, after U.S. President Donald Trump
announced last weekend that he would impose a 30% tariff on goods imported from
the EU starting Aug. 1.
Hope that the bloc will negotiate
a trade deal with the White House before the end of the month was
outweighed Tuesday by global growth concerns after data showed U.S.
inflation rose to 2.7% from 2.4% in June.
— Holly Ellyatt
What to keep an eye on today
Earnings season is upon us, with ASML, Richemont and Handelsbanken announcing their
latest financial results on Thursday.
On the data front, we have the latest U.K.
inflation print for June and EU trade data.
— Holly Ellyatt
European markets on Weds July 16: Stoxx 600, DAX, FTSE, UK inflation
US Inflation Data Comes in Cool But Signals Tariff
Bite
July 15, 2025 at 10:30 PM GMT+1
Economists have long warned of collateral
damage from Donald Trump’s trade war, but after four months of
cooler-than-predicted numbers, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday
again reported that US
inflation rose less than expected. However, unlike in previous months,
the new data signaled that some companies are indeed starting to pass
tariff-related costs on to consumers.
As overall prices rose
2.7% in June from a year earlier, appliances jumped the most in nearly five
years, toys increased at the fastest pace since early 2021 while
household furnishings and sports equipment climbed by the most since
2022. Inflation Insights President Omair Sharif pointed out
that excluding
cars, core goods prices climbed 0.55% in June—the biggest monthly advance
since November 2021. “Today’s report showed that tariffs are beginning to
bite,” he said in a note.
That said, the report has a little
bit of everything for Federal Reserve policymakers who are divided as
to whether tariffs will cause a one-time price shock or something more
persistent. There’s evidence of tariff pass-through for officials inclined to
keep interest rates elevated, and yet few signs of a broader reverberation for
those who are ready to lower them.
Investors still expect the central bank to
leave rates unchanged once again at its meeting in two weeks. Economists expect
price pressures to intensify in the next few months, especially if Trump
follows through on his latest threats of new levies against the European Union
and other countries. —Jordan
Parker Erb
The expectation that the Fed will stay the
course was
bad news for Treasury yields, which resumed climbing. Short-dated yields most
sensitive to changes in the Fed’s policy rate led the move, rising
more than four basis points as yields across tenors reached the
highest levels in several weeks. The 30-year bond’s yield touched 5% for the
first time since early June.
----The US housing market is losing
steam, with prices in more than half of the country’s top 100 housing
markets now
below their peak. The annual nationwide price increase slowed to 1.3% in
June, the slowest pace in two years and down from 1.6% the previous
month. Persistently
high mortgage rates, which make monthly payments unaffordable for many
Americans, continue to drag on housing demand.
Inflation
Data Comes in Cool But Signals Tariff Bite: Evening Briefing Americas -
Bloomberg
In other news, 1929-1932 2.0 here we come.
Get gold, held out of the larcenous reach of Uncle Scam and John Bull.
Japan bond yields hit multi-decade highs as fiscal
fears mount ahead of election
Published Tue, Jul 15 2025 12:32 AM EDT
Japan’s benchmark 10-year government bond
yield climbed to its highest level since 2008 on Tuesday as concerns about
fiscal spending mount ahead of an upper house election.
Yields on the 10-year instrument climbed
to 1.599%, the highest since 2008, data from LSEG showed. Yields on the 30-year
JGB also rose to a record high of 3.21%, while Japan’s 20-year government bond
yields spiked to their highest level since 1999.
“Japan’s long yields and super-long yields
are currently rising due to expectations of fiscal expansion after the Upper
House election coming up next week,” said Ken Matsumoto, Japan macro strategist
at Credit Agricole CIB.
A sizable number of Japanese politicians
and parties are actively discussing consumption tax cuts ahead of the upper
house election set to take place Sunday.
Japan Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has
maintained that he will not resort
to tax cuts funded by more debt issuance, although opposition
parties are
calling for tax cuts and more spending, which could lead to more debt.
This political uncertainty is creating
doubt over whether Japan’s government will stick to fiscal discipline, said
Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho Securities’ head of macro research for Asia ex-Japan.
Japan has one of the world’s highest
levels of public debt relative to the size of its economy. While the
government has flagged the need for more fiscal discipline, it relies
heavily on issuing new debt to fund its obligations. Tax revenues
alone are insufficient to cover the government’s expenses.
“The most recent trigger is the election.
People are concerned about the election because the politicians are talking
about consumption tax cuts, and tax cuts of any sort in Japan is suicidal,”
said Amir Anvarzadeh, Japan equity market strategist at Asymmetric Advisors,
who added that tax cuts would be dire given the fiscal situation that Japan is
facing.
“This is why the bond vigilantes are out.
And they’re saying: we need more yield to invest in the bond market. So there’s
a shorting [going on] in the JGB market,” he told CNBC.
Aside from the upcoming election, there
are underlying factors at play that could bring forward the Bank of Japan’s
next rate hike. While still at elevated levels, Tokyo’s inflation
eased to 3.1% year on year in June, slower than the 3.6% in May.
More
Japan bond yields
surge as fiscal fears mount ahead of election
EU ready to hit US with 21-billion-euro tariff
list, Italy foreign minister says
Mon, July 14, 2025 at 6:50 AM GMT+1
MILAN (Reuters) -The European Union has
already prepared a list of tariffs worth 21 billion euros
($24.52 billion) on U.S. goods if the two sides fail to reach a trade deal,
Italy's Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said in a newspaper interview on
Monday.
President Donald Trump on Saturday
threatened to impose a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico and the EU starting on
Aug. 1, after weeks of negotiations with major U.S. trading partners failed to
reach a comprehensive deal.
Tajani also told daily Il Messaggero that
to help the euro zone economy the European Central Bank should consider a new
"quantitative easing" bond-buying-programme, and more interest rate
cuts.
The European Union said on Sunday it would
extend its suspension of countermeasures to U.S. tariffs until early August and
continue to press for a negotiated settlement.
Tajani said the 21-billion-euro package of
tariffs the EU has already prepared could be followed by a second set if a deal
with the U.S proves impossible. He added, however, that he was confident that
progress could be made in negotiations.
"Tariffs hurt every one, starting
with the United States," he said. "If stock markets fall that puts at
risk the pensions and the savings of the Americans."
He said the goal should be "zero
tariffs" and an open market among Canada, the United States, Mexico and
Europe.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on
Sunday he would work intensively with French President Emmanuel Macron and
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to resolve the escalating
trade war with the United States.
European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic
said on Monday that Washington and Brussels were approaching a positive outcome
for both sides, and warned that a 30% tariff would practically eliminate trade.
EU ready to hit US
with 21-billion-euro tariff list, Italy foreign minister says
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
CPI,
the start of Trump’s tariffs cost push inflation?
Inflation
picks up again in June, rising at 2.7% annual rate
Published
Tue, Jul 15 2025 8:31 AM EDT
Consumer
prices rose in June as President Donald Trump’s tariffs began to slowly work
their way through the U.S. economy.
The consumer price
index,
a broad-based measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.3% on the month,
putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.7%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported Tuesday. The numbers were right in line with the Dow Jones consensus.
Excluding
volatile food and energy prices, core inflation picked up 0.2% on the month,
with the annual rate moving to 2.9%, also matching the respective estimates.
Prior
to June, inflation had been on a generally downward slope for the year, with
headline CPI at a 3% annual rate back in January and progressing gradually
slower in the subsequent months despite fears that Trump’s trade war would
drive prices higher.
While
the evidence in June was mixed on how much influence tariffs had over prices,
there were signs that the duties are having an impact.
Vehicle
prices fell on the month, with prices on new vehicles down 0.3% and used car
and trucks tumbling 0.7%. However, tariff-sensitive apparel prices increased
0.4%. Household furnishings, which also are influenced by tariffs, increased 1%
for the month.
Shelter
prices increased just 0.2% for the month, but the BLS said the category was
still the largest contributor to the overall CPI gain. The index rose 3.8% from
a year ago. Within the category, a measurement of what homeowners feel they
could receive if they rented their properties increased 0.3%. However, lodging
away from home slipped 2.9%.
Elsewhere,
food prices increased 0.3% for the month, putting the annual gain at 3%, while
energy prices reversed a loss in May and rose 0.9%, though they are still down
marginally from a year ago. Medical care services were up 0.6% while
transportation services edged higher by 0.2%.
CPI inflation
report June 2025:
Jul
15, 2025 5:21 PM GMT
Why
Tomatoes Are Becoming a Lot More Expensive
Food
prices have been quickly climbing for years now, and now there’s another staple
that could see prices soon shoot up: tomatoes.
Mexican
tomatoes are immediately being slapped with a 17% tariff, the U.S. Dept. of
Commerce said
on July 14, announcing it was withdrawing from a 2019 agreement that
suspended tariffs on tomatoes imported from Mexico.
That
could affect a lot of grocery store tomatoes. Although the fruit—or
vegetable, depending on who you ask—is also grown in Florida, about 70% of
fresh tomatoes consumed in the U.S. are imported, and the majority come from
Mexico, says David Ortega, a food economist at Michigan State University.
Although
the price of a bunch of tomatoes may only increase by a few dozen cents, the
increase comes at a time when consumers are already sick of inflation, and when
tariffs threatened by the Trump Administration could further drive up prices,
he says.
“This
is one of the most widely consumed fruits or vegetables in the U.S., and it’s
important to put it in the context of consumers’ experience with food prices
over the past few years,” Ortega says. “They’re stretched thin, and even a few
cents adds up, especially for low-income households.”
----U.S.
consumers may not see the effect of the new tariffs until the fall, says
Ortega, because tomatoes are currently in season in the U.S. We rely on
imported tomatoes more heavily in the winter.
Why
other food prices are going up, too
The
levying of tomato tariffs came a day before new government inflation data
showed that food prices were continuing to rise. The Consumer Price Index,
or CPI, showed that prices of beef and veal were up 10.6% in June from a year
ago, that egg prices
were up 27.3% and that coffee prices
were up 13.4%. Overall, inflation rose 2.7% from a year ago.
The
rising prices of beef, eggs, and coffee are not directly related to tariffs,
says Ortega. The price of beef is
going up because a 2022 drought made it too expensive for farmers to
keep livestock, and now the cattle inventory in the U.S. is extremely low.
Americans still demand beef, though, so low supply and high demand is causing
prices to surge.
Egg
prices increased from a year ago because of avian flu, although
their price actually fell from a month ago. And coffee prices are climbing
because climate change has affected crops in places like Brazil and Vietnam,
Ortega says.
Still,
tariffs aren’t helping: U.S. producers depend on certain types of lean beef
from Brazil to make ground beef, for instance, Ortega says, and the 10% tariff
on almost all food imports is making that more expensive.
Those
10% tariffs are affecting other food products as well.
More
Why Tomatoes
Are Becoming a Lot More Expensive | TIME
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
New Covid-19 variant prompts holidaymakers to mask up to help stop
spread
14 July 2025
A new variant of Covid-19 (also known as Coronavirus) emerged at the start of the year, and already
makes up more than 30% of cases in the UK and more than 42% of cases in Spain.
This variant on the illness more easily beats immunity, experts say, and may
prompt mask-wearing in certain areas again.
The new subvariant is
known as XFG, nicknamed Stratus. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has
designated it a "variant under monitoring".
A new variant, which
causes a hoarse throat, seems to be more easily transmitted to individuals who
have previously had COVID-19. This indicates
that UK holidaymakers travelling
to countries like Spain, where the variant is more common, may be at a higher
risk of falling ill.
Experts suggest that
wearing masks could be a good measure to prevent the spread of this illness.
A variant under
monitoring indicates a variant that requires prioritised observation due to its
potential additional threat. As of June 25, XFG was one of seven variants being
monitored.
Paul Griffin, professor
of Infectious Diseases and Microbiology at The University of Queensland, said:
"XFG is a recombinant of LF.7 and LP.8.1.2 which means these two
subvariants have shared genetic material to come up with the new subvariant."
He added: "While
recombination and other spontaneous changes happen often with SARS-CoV-2, it
becomes a problem when it creates a subvariant that is changed in such a way
that its properties cause more problems for us."
Professor Griffin said:
"Early laboratory studies have suggested a nearly two-fold reduction in
how well antibodies block the virus compared to LP.8.1.1."
More
New Covid-19 variant prompts holidaymakers to mask up to help stop spread
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
In totally useless news.
Electric car drives 1,205 kilometres on single charge in world
record
July 14, 2025
In a sign that range anxiety in electric
cars could soon be a thing of the past, US manufacturer Lucid says one of its
cars was able to cover 1,205 kilometres on a single battery charge - a new
world record.
The feat comes as the driving range of
an electric vehicle remains a key selling point, with many would-be buyers of
electric cars still put off by fears of running out of battery on longer
journeys.
Lucid announced in July that its Air
Grand Touring covered a distance of 1,205 km on a journey from Sankt Moritz in
Switzerland via Austria to Munich. However, some motoring pundits have reacted
cautiously to the record, arguing it has little impact on electric mobility.
This trip secured the manufacturer an
entry in the Guinness Book of Records for beating the previous record by a
solid 160 kilometres. A Mercedes electric had set the record only a few weeks
ago in June.
The five-seat Lucid is admittedly one of
the most powerful EVs in the world, delivering a massive 831 horsepower, albeit
for an equally massive price upwards of $110,000.
The saloon reaches a top speed of 270
km/h - far faster than most electric cars. Meanwhile its ultra-fast charging
capability means that the Lucid's battery can regain up to 400 kilometres of
range in just 16 minutes, the maker says.
Commenting on the record, industry
expert Stefan Bratzel from the Center of Automotive Management (CAM) told the
mass-circulation Bild newspaper: "The range race continues, although a
long range is becoming less important."
Bratzel called the record a
"marketing gag" with limited relevance to everyday motoring.
Ferdinand Dudenhöffer from the Center for Automotive Research (CAR) said the
range of EVs has improved considerably in recent years and is not far removed from
that of diesel vehicles.
Electric car drives 1,205 kilometres on single charge in world record
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Near
the top of the market, investors are extraordinarily optimistic because they've
seen mostly higher prices for a year or two. The sell-offs witnessed during
that span were usually brief. Even when they were severe, the market bounced
back quickly and always rose to loftier levels. At the top, optimism is king,
speculation is running wild, stocks carry high price/earnings ratios, and
liquidity has evaporated. A small rise in interest rates can easily be the
catalyst for triggering a bear market at that point.
Martin Zweig
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