Baltic
Dry Index. 1458 -31 Brent Crude 67.16
Spot Gold 3340 US 2 Year Yield 3.78 +0.06
US Federal Debt. 37.050 trillion
US GDP 30.108 trillion.
Belgium is a country invented by the British to annoy the French.
Charles de Gaulle
In Sintra, Portugal, Fed Chairman Powell says the US central bank would have lowered interest rates by now if it wasn’t for President Trumps tariffs.
Don’t look now but is Florida signalling the
end of the property bubble?
Singapore stocks hit record high amid mixed
trading in Asia as investors assess Fed's latest comments
Updated Tue, Jul 1 2025 10:41 PM EDT
Singapore stocks hit a record high on
Wednesday amid mixed trading in the Asia-Pacific region on Wednesday as
investors digested the latest comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome
Powell.
Powell said Tuesday that the central bank
would have already cut interest rates if it weren’t for U.S. President Donald
Trump’s tariff initiatives.
Singapore equities climbed 0.4% to a
record high of 4,005.39 points Wednesday morning, data from LSEG showed.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 slid 1.32%, and
the Topix lost 0.64%. South Korea’s Kospi was 0.42% lower while the Kosdaq was
flat. Australia’s S&P/ASX
200 inched up 0.49%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose
0.73% while the mainland CSI 300 was flat.
U.S.
stock futures were little changed early Asian hours after investors
began the second half of the year with a reduced
appetite for technology stocks.
Overnight
stateside, the three major averages closed mixed. The S&P 500 inched down 0.11%
and closed at 6,198.01, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.82%
to settle at 20,202.89. The blue-chip Dow was the outlier, gaining 400.17
points, or 0.91%, to end at 44,494.94.
Asia
stock markets today: live updates
Stock futures are flat after investors sell tech
names to start the second half of 2025: Live updates
Updated Tue, Jul 1 2025 7:46 PM EDT
Stock futures were little changed on
Tuesday evening, after investors began the second half with a reduced
appetite for technology stocks.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added
9 points. S&P 500 futures were
marginally higher, while Nasdaq
100 futures advanced 0.1%.
In regular trading, the blue-chip Dow advanced 400 points,
while the S&P 500 slipped
0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite lost
0.8% as traders shunned the high-flying tech stocks that drove the market’s
second quarter rebound.
The information technology sector of the
S&P 500 – whose constituents include Nvidia, Palantir and Advanced Micro Devices – lost
more than 1% on Tuesday, as did the communications services sector. Instead,
investors gravitated toward health care and materials names. Gains in Amgen, Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth lifted the
30-stock Dow.
Elsewhere, President Donald Trump’s
tax-and-spending bill narrowly passed the Senate on Tuesday. The measure
will return
to the House, where there are still hold-outs among GOP lawmakers.
“We expect to see more volatility in fixed
income, even once they get the bill passed, whatever that looks like,” said Jose
Rasco, HSBC Global Private Banking and Wealth Management Americas CIO on “Closing Bell: Overtime.”
“That’s going to bleed over into the equity markets.”
Still, this turbulence is likely to be
short-lived, he said. “Once these things get resolved and once the [Federal
Reserve] gets back in gear, there’s a lot of upside here,” Rasco said.
Traders are also looking for any progress
on trade deals as Trump’s 90-day pause on his sharpest tariffs is set to expire
next week.
On the economic front Wednesday, investors
await ADP’s private payrolls report due before the bell. Economists polled by
Dow Jones anticipate that private employers added 120,000 jobs in June, up
sharply from the gain
of 37,000 in May.
The main event in this holiday-shortened
week will be June’s big jobs report, due Thursday morning.
Stock
market today: Live updates
Powell confirms that the Fed would have cut by now
were it not for tariffs
Published Tue, Jul 1 2025 9:57 AM EDT Updated
Tue, Jul 1 2025 2:45 PM EDT
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said
Tuesday that the U.S. central bank would have eased monetary policy by now if
not for President Donald Trump’s tariff plan.
When asked during
a panel if the Fed would have lowered rates again this year had Trump
not announced his controversial plan to impose higher levies on imported goods
earlier this year, Powell said, “I think that’s right.”
“In effect, we went on hold when we saw
the size of the tariffs and essentially all inflation forecasts for the United
States went up materially as a consequence of the tariffs,” Powell said at
European Central Bank forum in Sintra, Portugal.
Powell’s admission comes as the Fed has
entered a holding pattern on interest rates despite mounting pressure from the
White House.
The Fed last month held the key borrowing
rate steady
once again, keeping fed funds at the same range between 4.25% and 4.5%
where it’s been since December.
The central bank’s policy-setting Federal
Open Market Committee indicated via its so-called dot plot of members’
projections that there could be two cuts by the end of 2025. However, Powell
also said at a press conference last month that the Fed was “well
positioned” to remain in a wait-and-see mode.
On Tuesday, Powell was asked if July would
be too soon for markets to expect a rate cut. He answered that that he “really
can’t say” and that “it’s going to depend on the data.” Fed funds futures
traders are pricing in a more than 76% likelihood that the central bank once
again holds rates steady at the July policy gathering, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
“We are going meeting by meeting,” Powell
said during Tuesday’s panel. “I wouldn’t take any meeting off the table or put
it directly on the table. It’s going to depend on how the data evolve.”
More
Powell
confirms that the Fed would have cut by now were it not for tariffs
In other news.
White House says Canada ‘caved’ to Trump over
digital services tax
Published Mon, Jun 30 2025 11:53 AM EDT Updated
Mon, Jun 30 2025 2:48 PM EDT
The White House claimed Monday that Canada “caved” to
President Donald Trump by
hastily rescinding its digital services
tax after
the president threatened to shut down trade negotiations
between the two major trading partners.
“It’s very simple: Prime Minister [Mark]
Carney and Canada caved to President Trump and the United States of America,”
press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters at a briefing.
“It was a mistake for Canada to vow to
implement that tax that would have our tech companies,” Leavitt said.
Carney, she added, called Trump Sunday
night to “let the president know that he would be dropping that tax, which is a
big victory for our tech companies and our American workers.”
Neither the office of the prime minister
nor his Liberal Party immediately responded to CNBC’s requests for comment.
Leavitt’s remarks came hours after top
Trump economic aide Kevin Hassett said the White
House will
likely ask more countries to drop their own digital services taxes as part of
ongoing trade talks,
following Canada’s concession.
“My expectation is that the digital
services taxes around the world will be taken off, and that that will be a key
part of the ... ongoing trade negotiations that we have,” Hassett, the director
of Trump’s National Economic Council, said on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.”
The remark from Leavitt and Hassett came
one day after Canada
walked back its
DST in order to “advance broader trade negotiations” with the United States.
That reversal — just hours before the
first collection under the new tax was due — came on the heels of Trump’s
surprise threat Friday to
terminate all
trade talks with Ottawa as long as the DST remained in place.
More
Trump digital
services taxes dispute: Canada caved, White House says
Condo crisis grows as 75-year-old HOA goes
bankrupt under $50M debt... experts warn more at risk
Published: 16:39, 30
June 2025 | Updated: 16:45, 30 June 2025
A Miami condominium
association has filed for bankruptcy, buried under tens of millions in debt.
Experts fear it could be a warning sign of
what’s to come for other aging
complexes across Florida.
When a homeowners association (HOA)
collapses, the impact on residents is immediate and painful. Pools, gyms,
and other shared amenities are shut down, landscaping is neglected, and basic
maintenance stalls.
To make up for the financial shortfall,
homeowners are often hit with steep special assessments — one-time charges
aimed at balancing the books — while monthly
dues can also surge as the HOA struggles to repay its debts.
In the meantime, property
values will depreciate, and selling becomes far more difficult.
Some homeowners may attempt to replace the
existing board or even dissolve the HOA entirely, leaving residents to manage
common areas on their own or find costly alternatives.
It’s the latest
sign of a broader condo reckoning in Florida, where runaway
HOA fees, aging infrastructure, and poor financial planning have pushed many
communities to the brink.
The situation has become so dire that
Governor Ron DeSantis recently signed
a law imposing sweeping reforms aimed at making HOA boards more
transparent, accountable, and less intrusive.
Starting July 1, the law will rein in
homeowners associations (HOAs) long accused of slapping residents with surprise
fees and fines for petty infractions. It aims to prevent situations like
the Sunset Palm Villas Condominium Association bankruptcy.
According to an online
filing,
the Sunset Palm Villas Condominium Association in Miami filed for Chapter 11
bankruptcy, listing debts of up to $50 million, while holding no more than $1
million in assets.
While the court documents don't reveal
exactly what triggered the financial collapse, experts say HOA bankruptcies
usually stem from a toxic mix of problems: poor financial planning, underfunded
reserves, emergency repairs, missed dues, and sometimes even fraud or
embezzlement.
With many older condos now facing costly
upgrades and new insurance mandates, bankrupt HOAs may become increasingly
common — and financially devastating for owners caught in the fallout.
Ultimately it comes down to poor money
management by members of the board and lack of transparency with residents.
More
The Worst Housing Market in America Is Now
Florida’s Cape Coral
Home prices have been battered by
everything from overbuilding to insurance costs. Realtors warn there’s further
to fall.
June 30, 2025 9:00 pm ET
CAPE CORAL, Fla.—They came in droves via
Zoom.
Thousands found an inexpensive slice of
paradise in Cape Coral, a city with more canals than anywhere else in the
world. Househunters were so taken with this boating community on Florida’s west
coast that many purchased homes sight unseen during the early years of the
pandemic.
The median home price soared nearly 75% to
$419,000 in three years, transforming the character of this middle-income
community that for decades has catered to retirees and small investors.
Now, three years later, “For Sale” signs
line every other block. Open houses are deserted for hours. Foreclosures are
ticking up. Home builders are listing half-built shells at discounts as they
abandon projects to cut losses. Locals say the lack of traffic has led to an
increase in vehicles speeding through empty residential streets.
“Cape Coral is the worst housing market in
America right now,” said José Echevarria, a Realtor. “I don’t think we’re
at the bottom yet.”
Home prices for Cape Coral-Fort Myers have
tumbled 11% in the two years through May, the most of any major metro area,
according to an analysis for The Wall Street Journal by the listing site Homes.com.
The area’s home prices have declined for
12 out of the past 13 months, and 52% of the homes have experienced price cuts,
according to Parcl Labs, a real-estate data-analytics company. While that is
more than nearly anywhere else in the U.S., neighboring communities such as
Sarasota and Tampa are in a similar bind.
Cape Coral also has the most homeowners underwater in the country, with
nearly 8% owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.
More
Florida’s
Cape Coral Is Now the Worst Housing Market in America - WSJ
I wouldn't mind dying for France, but not for Air France.
Charles de Gaulle
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Euro
zone inflation edges higher, hitting ECB’s 2% target in June
Published
Tue, Jul 1 2025 5:07 AM EDT
Euro
zone inflation rose slightly to 2% in June, according to flash data from
statistics agency Eurostat on Tuesday, meaning consumer prices in the single
currency area are now in line with the European Central Bank’s target of 2%.
Economists
polled by Reuters had expected the reading to come in at 2% in the twelve
months to June. Euro zone inflation had fallen by more than
expected to 1.9% in May.
Core
inflation, which excludes energy, food, tobacco and alcohol prices, was
unchanged at 2.3% in June.
The
closely watched services inflation print picked up to 3.3% in June, after
cooling significantly in May to 3.2%, down from a 4% reading in April.
Individual
inflation prints released in the last week by major euro zone economies showed an easing
in the harmonized inflation rate in Germany, a small rise in France and Spain,
but no change in Italy in June — indicating that the wider euro area reading
would have likely edged toward the 2% level targeted by the ECB.
That
has further stoked expectations that
the central bank will opt to leave its key rate, the deposit facility rate,
unchanged at 2% when it next meets in late July, before
making a final 25-basis-point cut in September.
The euro picked
up after the data release and was last seen
trading around 0.3% higher against the dollar.
The
ECB’s Chief Economist Philip Lane told CNBC on Tuesday that he believed the latest period
of monetary policy interventions to bring inflation in check is “done.”
“We
do think the last cycle is done, bringing inflation down from the peak of
10[%], back to 2%, that element is over, but on a forward-looking basis we do
need to stand ready to make sure that any deviation we see does not become
embedded, does not change the medium-term picture,” Lane said in an interview
with CNBC’s Annette Weisbach at the ECB’s annual forum in Sintra, Portugal.
More
Euro zone
inflation edges higher, hitting ECB's 2% target in June
ECB
Forum Preview: World’s main central bankers expected to shed light on interest
rates as uncertainty grows
07/01/2025
08:00:00 GMT
Jerome
Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve System (Fed), and Christine Lagarde,
European Central Bank (ECB) President, will speak at the 2025 ECB Forum on
Central Banking at 13:30 GMT on Tuesday, July 1.
Alongside
Fed Chairman Powell and ECB President Lagarde, Bank of England (BoE) Governor
Andrew Bailey and Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda will also be taking
part in the same panel.
The
Fed left its policy rate unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.5% following the
June policy meeting, and the revised Summary of Economic Projections (the
so-called dot-plot) showed that policymakers were still projecting the Fed to
cut the policy rate twice this year. While testifying about the Semiannual
Monetary Policy Report before the US Congress, Powell explained that the reason
they adopt a cautious approach to policy-easing is that forecasts in and out of
the Fed expect a meaningful increase in inflation this year due to tariffs.
The
ECB lowered its key rates by 25 basis points (bps) in June, and ECB President
Lagarde hinted that they might be at the end of the easing cycle. Meanwhile,
the BoE maintained its policy rate at 4.25% after the June meeting, but three
members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted in favor of a 25 bps rate
cut, citing material further loosening in the labour market, subdued consumer
demand and pay deals near sustainable rates. Finally, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda
reiterated that they will continue to raise rates if the economy and prices
move in line with their forecasts after leaving the short-term interest rate
target unchanged in the range of 0.4%- 0.5% in June.
---- "Jerome H.
Powell first took office as Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System on February 5, 2018, for a four-year term. He was reappointed to
the office and sworn in for a second four-year term on May 23, 2022. Mr. Powell
also serves as Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, the System's
principal monetary policymaking body. Mr. Powell has served as a member of the
Board of Governors since taking office on May 25, 2012, to fill an unexpired
term. He was reappointed to the Board and sworn in on June 16, 2014, for a term
ending January 31, 2028."
Jerome Powell
speech in ECB forum to offer hints over potential interest-rate cuts
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Who thought it was a good idea to buy
electric ambulances? Fire engines? Buses?
Irish ambulance chiefs issue rare warning after two vehicles catch
fire in matter of days
29 June 2025
Paramedics across the country have been
warned to be careful after a second fire aboard an ambulance in a week.
The National Ambulance Service is now investigating a possible fault in the
242 model which affects 96 vehicles nationwide.
It is understood the latest incident
relates to a lithium ion battery in the ambulance. The details of what happened
have not yet been made public.
But only a week ago in County Mayo
an ambulance was destroyed by fire while parked near the Sacred Heart Hospital,
Castlebar. Luckily there was no crew or patients in the vehicle at the time.
Senior NAS management informed staff on
Friday that a full investigation into a possible fault is now underway.
In a memo circulated to staff they were
advised to use an alternative ambulance rather than the 242 if there is one
available.
If not, the management urged the
ambulance crews to be "vigilant" for yourself, your crew member and
patient.
The staff were also told that it is not
possible to stand these vehicles down and going forward it might be prudent
while responding to calls to park them in locations out of harm's way.
Paramedics have been informed that vehicle auxiliary batteries or the Milwaukee ions
may be the cause of the fault.
There were staff reports of some
chargers overheating last week - with one crew member saying they had to use a
towel to unplug the battery such was the heat.
It is believed the NAS has 96 ambulances
nationwide with lithium ion batteries in the cab.
The NAS told staff: "Following a
second vehicle fire today, initial investigation indicates these potentially
are auxiliary battery related issues. Investigations and resolutions are
currently being worked on and should be ready in the next 18 hours.
"Should crews notice the smell of
smoke or fire, evacuate the vehicle ensuring staff and patient safety. Contact
NEOC who will notify the fire and emergency services. NAS tactical managers
will be working with crews at a local level to advise, support and mitigate
risk."
One senior paramedic said: "You
couldn't make this up - we are expected to go out there on 999 calls and save
lives in ambulances that could be a fire risk.
"If they take the vehicles off the
road the whole national ambulance service will be decimated. Hopefully they can
get to the bottom of this battery problem as quickly as possible."
The NAS handles on average 1,000
emergency calls a day.
The HSE confirmed two fires had occurred
in the two ambulances and it has identified a technical issue.
It said the first, a recently
commissioned Emergency Ambulance was destroyed by fire while parked adjacent to
Castlebar Ambulance Station in the early hours of Saturday, June 21, 2025.
A new Community Paramedic Response
vehicle awaiting entry to service , also went on fire in a vehicle
commissioning facility in Tullamore on the June 26, 2025. It said neither
vehicle was in use at the time, no patients were affected and no staff injured.
More
Irish ambulance chiefs issue rare warning after two vehicles catch fire
in matter of days
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
I have
come to the conclusion that politics are too serious a matter to be left to the
politicians.
Charles de Gaulle
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