Wednesday, 2 July 2025

Tariffs Block Fed Interest Rate Cuts. Real Estate Woes Rise In Florida.

Baltic Dry Index. 1458 -31          Brent Crude 67.16

Spot Gold 3340               US 2 Year Yield 3.78 +0.06

US Federal Debt. 37.050 trillion

US GDP 30.108 trillion.

Belgium is a country invented by the British to annoy the French.

Charles de Gaulle

In Sintra, Portugal, Fed Chairman Powell says the US central bank would have lowered interest rates by now if it wasn’t for President Trumps tariffs.

Don’t look now but is Florida signalling the end of the property bubble?

Singapore stocks hit record high amid mixed trading in Asia as investors assess Fed's latest comments

Updated Tue, Jul 1 2025 10:41 PM EDT

Singapore stocks hit a record high on Wednesday amid mixed trading in the Asia-Pacific region on Wednesday as investors digested the latest comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Powell said Tuesday that the central bank would have already cut interest rates if it weren’t for U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff initiatives.

Singapore equities climbed 0.4% to a record high of 4,005.39 points Wednesday morning, data from LSEG showed.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 slid 1.32%, and the Topix lost 0.64%. South Korea’s Kospi was 0.42% lower while the Kosdaq was flat. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 inched up 0.49%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 0.73% while the mainland CSI 300 was flat.

U.S. stock futures were little changed early Asian hours after investors began the second half of the year with a reduced appetite for technology stocks.

Overnight stateside, the three major averages closed mixed. The S&P 500 inched down 0.11% and closed at 6,198.01, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.82% to settle at 20,202.89. The blue-chip Dow was the outlier, gaining 400.17 points, or 0.91%, to end at 44,494.94.

Asia stock markets today: live updates

Stock futures are flat after investors sell tech names to start the second half of 2025: Live updates

Updated Tue, Jul 1 2025 7:46 PM EDT

Stock futures were little changed on Tuesday evening, after investors began the second half with a reduced appetite for technology stocks.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 9 points. S&P 500 futures were marginally higher, while Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.1%.

In regular trading, the blue-chip Dow advanced 400 points, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.8% as traders shunned the high-flying tech stocks that drove the market’s second quarter rebound.

The information technology sector of the S&P 500 – whose constituents include NvidiaPalantir and Advanced Micro Devices – lost more than 1% on Tuesday, as did the communications services sector. Instead, investors gravitated toward health care and materials names. Gains in AmgenJohnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth lifted the 30-stock Dow.

Elsewhere, President Donald Trump’s tax-and-spending bill narrowly passed the Senate on Tuesday. The measure will return to the House, where there are still hold-outs among GOP lawmakers.

“We expect to see more volatility in fixed income, even once they get the bill passed, whatever that looks like,” said Jose Rasco, HSBC Global Private Banking and Wealth Management Americas CIO on “Closing Bell: Overtime.” “That’s going to bleed over into the equity markets.”

Still, this turbulence is likely to be short-lived, he said. “Once these things get resolved and once the [Federal Reserve] gets back in gear, there’s a lot of upside here,” Rasco said.

Traders are also looking for any progress on trade deals as Trump’s 90-day pause on his sharpest tariffs is set to expire next week.

On the economic front Wednesday, investors await ADP’s private payrolls report due before the bell. Economists polled by Dow Jones anticipate that private employers added 120,000 jobs in June, up sharply from the gain of 37,000 in May.

The main event in this holiday-shortened week will be June’s big jobs report, due Thursday morning.

Stock market today: Live updates

Powell confirms that the Fed would have cut by now were it not for tariffs

Published Tue, Jul 1 2025 9:57 AM EDT Updated Tue, Jul 1 2025 2:45 PM EDT

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that the U.S. central bank would have eased monetary policy by now if not for President Donald Trump’s tariff plan.

When asked during a panel if the Fed would have lowered rates again this year had Trump not announced his controversial plan to impose higher levies on imported goods earlier this year, Powell said, “I think that’s right.”

“In effect, we went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs and essentially all inflation forecasts for the United States went up materially as a consequence of the tariffs,” Powell said at European Central Bank forum in Sintra, Portugal.

Powell’s admission comes as the Fed has entered a holding pattern on interest rates despite mounting pressure from the White House.

The Fed last month held the key borrowing rate steady once again, keeping fed funds at the same range between 4.25% and 4.5% where it’s been since December.

The central bank’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee indicated via its so-called dot plot of members’ projections that there could be two cuts by the end of 2025. However, Powell also said at a press conference last month that the Fed was “well positioned” to remain in a wait-and-see mode.

On Tuesday, Powell was asked if July would be too soon for markets to expect a rate cut. He answered that that he “really can’t say” and that “it’s going to depend on the data.” Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a more than 76% likelihood that the central bank once again holds rates steady at the July policy gathering, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

“We are going meeting by meeting,” Powell said during Tuesday’s panel. “I wouldn’t take any meeting off the table or put it directly on the table. It’s going to depend on how the data evolve.”

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Powell confirms that the Fed would have cut by now were it not for tariffs

In other news.

White House says Canada ‘caved’ to Trump over digital services tax

Published Mon, Jun 30 2025 11:53 AM EDT Updated Mon, Jun 30 2025 2:48 PM EDT

The White House claimed Monday that Canada “caved” to President Donald Trump by hastily rescinding its digital services tax after the president threatened to shut down trade negotiations between the two major trading partners.

“It’s very simple: Prime Minister [Mark] Carney and Canada caved to President Trump and the United States of America,” press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters at a briefing.

“It was a mistake for Canada to vow to implement that tax that would have our tech companies,” Leavitt said.

Carney, she added, called Trump Sunday night to “let the president know that he would be dropping that tax, which is a big victory for our tech companies and our American workers.”

Neither the office of the prime minister nor his Liberal Party immediately responded to CNBC’s requests for comment.

Leavitt’s remarks came hours after top Trump economic aide Kevin Hassett said the White House will likely ask more countries to drop their own digital services taxes as part of ongoing trade talks, following Canada’s concession.

“My expectation is that the digital services taxes around the world will be taken off, and that that will be a key part of the ... ongoing trade negotiations that we have,” Hassett, the director of Trump’s National Economic Council, said on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.”

The remark from Leavitt and Hassett came one day after Canada walked back its DST in order to “advance broader trade negotiations” with the United States.

That reversal — just hours before the first collection under the new tax was due — came on the heels of Trump’s surprise threat Friday to terminate all trade talks with Ottawa as long as the DST remained in place.

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Trump digital services taxes dispute: Canada caved, White House says

Condo crisis grows as 75-year-old HOA goes bankrupt under $50M debt... experts warn more at risk

Published: 16:39, 30 June 2025 | Updated: 16:45, 30 June 2025

A Miami condominium association has filed for bankruptcy, buried under tens of millions in debt.

Experts fear it could be a warning sign of what’s to come for other aging complexes across Florida

When a homeowners association (HOA) collapses, the impact on residents is immediate and painful. Pools, gyms, and other shared amenities are shut down, landscaping is neglected, and basic maintenance stalls.

To make up for the financial shortfall, homeowners are often hit with steep special assessments — one-time charges aimed at balancing the books — while monthly dues can also surge as the HOA struggles to repay its debts. 

In the meantime, property values will depreciate, and selling becomes far more difficult.

Some homeowners may attempt to replace the existing board or even dissolve the HOA entirely, leaving residents to manage common areas on their own or find costly alternatives. 

It’s the latest sign of a broader condo reckoning in Florida, where runaway HOA fees, aging infrastructure, and poor financial planning have pushed many communities to the brink. 

The situation has become so dire that Governor Ron DeSantis recently signed a law imposing sweeping reforms aimed at making HOA boards more transparent, accountable, and less intrusive. 

Starting July 1, the law will rein in homeowners associations (HOAs) long accused of slapping residents with surprise fees and fines for petty infractions. It aims to prevent situations like the Sunset Palm Villas Condominium Association bankruptcy.

According to an online filing, the Sunset Palm Villas Condominium Association in Miami filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, listing debts of up to $50 million, while holding no more than $1 million in assets.

While the court documents don't reveal exactly what triggered the financial collapse, experts say HOA bankruptcies usually stem from a toxic mix of problems: poor financial planning, underfunded reserves, emergency repairs, missed dues, and sometimes even fraud or embezzlement.   

With many older condos now facing costly upgrades and new insurance mandates, bankrupt HOAs may become increasingly common — and financially devastating for owners caught in the fallout. 

Ultimately it comes down to poor money management by members of the board and lack of transparency with residents.

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Condo crisis grows as 75-year-old HOA goes bankrupt under $50M debt... experts warn more at risk | Daily Mail Online

The Worst Housing Market in America Is Now Florida’s Cape Coral

Home prices have been battered by everything from overbuilding to insurance costs. Realtors warn there’s further to fall.

June 30, 2025 9:00 pm ET

CAPE CORAL, Fla.—They came in droves via Zoom.

Thousands found an inexpensive slice of paradise in Cape Coral, a city with more canals than anywhere else in the world. Househunters were so taken with this boating community on Florida’s west coast that many purchased homes sight unseen during the early years of the pandemic.

The median home price soared nearly 75% to $419,000 in three years, transforming the character of this middle-income community that for decades has catered to retirees and small investors. 

Now, three years later, “For Sale” signs line every other block. Open houses are deserted for hours. Foreclosures are ticking up. Home builders are listing half-built shells at discounts as they abandon projects to cut losses. Locals say the lack of traffic has led to an increase in vehicles speeding through empty residential streets.

“Cape Coral is the worst housing market in America right now,” said José Echevarria, a Realtor. “I don’t think we’re at the bottom yet.”

Home prices for Cape Coral-Fort Myers have tumbled 11% in the two years through May, the most of any major metro area, according to an analysis for The Wall Street Journal by the listing site Homes.com

The area’s home prices have declined for 12 out of the past 13 months, and 52% of the homes have experienced price cuts, according to Parcl Labs, a real-estate data-analytics company. While that is more than nearly anywhere else in the U.S., neighboring communities such as Sarasota and Tampa are in a similar bind.

Cape Coral also has the most homeowners underwater in the country, with nearly 8% owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.

More

Florida’s Cape Coral Is Now the Worst Housing Market in America - WSJ

I wouldn't mind dying for France, but not for Air France.

Charles de Gaulle

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Euro zone inflation edges higher, hitting ECB’s 2% target in June

Published Tue, Jul 1 2025 5:07 AM EDT

Euro zone inflation rose slightly to 2% in June, according to flash data from statistics agency Eurostat on Tuesday, meaning consumer prices in the single currency area are now in line with the European Central Bank’s target of 2%.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the reading to come in at 2% in the twelve months to June. Euro zone inflation had fallen by more than expected to 1.9% in May.

Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, tobacco and alcohol prices, was unchanged at 2.3% in June.

The closely watched services inflation print picked up to 3.3% in June, after cooling significantly in May to 3.2%, down from a 4% reading in April.

Individual inflation prints released in the last week by major euro zone economies showed an easing in the harmonized inflation rate in Germany, a small rise in France and Spain, but no change in Italy in June — indicating that the wider euro area reading would have likely edged toward the 2% level targeted by the ECB.

That has further stoked expectations that the central bank will opt to leave its key rate, the deposit facility rate, unchanged at 2% when it next meets in late July, before making a final 25-basis-point cut in September.

The euro picked up after the data release and was last seen trading around 0.3% higher against the dollar.

The ECB’s Chief Economist Philip Lane told CNBC on Tuesday that he believed the latest period of monetary policy interventions to bring inflation in check is “done.”

“We do think the last cycle is done, bringing inflation down from the peak of 10[%], back to 2%, that element is over, but on a forward-looking basis we do need to stand ready to make sure that any deviation we see does not become embedded, does not change the medium-term picture,” Lane said in an interview with CNBC’s Annette Weisbach at the ECB’s annual forum in Sintra, Portugal.

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Euro zone inflation edges higher, hitting ECB's 2% target in June

ECB Forum Preview: World’s main central bankers expected to shed light on interest rates as uncertainty grows

07/01/2025 08:00:00 GMT

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve System (Fed), and Christine Lagarde, European Central Bank (ECB) President, will speak at the 2025 ECB Forum on Central Banking at 13:30 GMT on Tuesday, July 1.

Alongside Fed Chairman Powell and ECB President Lagarde, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey and Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda will also be taking part in the same panel.

The Fed left its policy rate unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.5% following the June policy meeting, and the revised Summary of Economic Projections (the so-called dot-plot) showed that policymakers were still projecting the Fed to cut the policy rate twice this year. While testifying about the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the US Congress, Powell explained that the reason they adopt a cautious approach to policy-easing is that forecasts in and out of the Fed expect a meaningful increase in inflation this year due to tariffs.

The ECB lowered its key rates by 25 basis points (bps) in June, and ECB President Lagarde hinted that they might be at the end of the easing cycle. Meanwhile, the BoE maintained its policy rate at 4.25% after the June meeting, but three members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted in favor of a 25 bps rate cut, citing material further loosening in the labour market, subdued consumer demand and pay deals near sustainable rates. Finally, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that they will continue to raise rates if the economy and prices move in line with their forecasts after leaving the short-term interest rate target unchanged in the range of 0.4%- 0.5% in June.

---- "Jerome H. Powell first took office as Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on February 5, 2018, for a four-year term. He was reappointed to the office and sworn in for a second four-year term on May 23, 2022. Mr. Powell also serves as Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, the System's principal monetary policymaking body. Mr. Powell has served as a member of the Board of Governors since taking office on May 25, 2012, to fill an unexpired term. He was reappointed to the Board and sworn in on June 16, 2014, for a term ending January 31, 2028."

Jerome Powell speech in ECB forum to offer hints over potential interest-rate cuts

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Who thought it was a good idea to buy electric ambulances? Fire engines? Buses?

Irish ambulance chiefs issue rare warning after two vehicles catch fire in matter of days

29 June 2025

Paramedics across the country have been warned to be careful after a second fire aboard an ambulance in a week.

The National Ambulance Service is now investigating a possible fault in the 242 model which affects 96 vehicles nationwide.

It is understood the latest incident relates to a lithium ion battery in the ambulance. The details of what happened have not yet been made public.

But only a week ago in County Mayo an ambulance was destroyed by fire while parked near the Sacred Heart Hospital, Castlebar. Luckily there was no crew or patients in the vehicle at the time.

Senior NAS management informed staff on Friday that a full investigation into a possible fault is now underway.

In a memo circulated to staff they were advised to use an alternative ambulance rather than the 242 if there is one available.

If not, the management urged the ambulance crews to be "vigilant" for yourself, your crew member and patient.

The staff were also told that it is not possible to stand these vehicles down and going forward it might be prudent while responding to calls to park them in locations out of harm's way.

Paramedics have been informed that vehicle auxiliary batteries or the Milwaukee ions may be the cause of the fault.

There were staff reports of some chargers overheating last week - with one crew member saying they had to use a towel to unplug the battery such was the heat.

It is believed the NAS has 96 ambulances nationwide with lithium ion batteries in the cab.

The NAS told staff: "Following a second vehicle fire today, initial investigation indicates these potentially are auxiliary battery related issues. Investigations and resolutions are currently being worked on and should be ready in the next 18 hours.

"Should crews notice the smell of smoke or fire, evacuate the vehicle ensuring staff and patient safety. Contact NEOC who will notify the fire and emergency services. NAS tactical managers will be working with crews at a local level to advise, support and mitigate risk."

One senior paramedic said: "You couldn't make this up - we are expected to go out there on 999 calls and save lives in ambulances that could be a fire risk.

"If they take the vehicles off the road the whole national ambulance service will be decimated. Hopefully they can get to the bottom of this battery problem as quickly as possible."

The NAS handles on average 1,000 emergency calls a day.

The HSE confirmed two fires had occurred in the two ambulances and it has identified a technical issue.

It said the first, a recently commissioned Emergency Ambulance was destroyed by fire while parked adjacent to Castlebar Ambulance Station in the early hours of Saturday, June 21, 2025.

A new Community Paramedic Response vehicle awaiting entry to service , also went on fire in a vehicle commissioning facility in Tullamore on the June 26, 2025. It said neither vehicle was in use at the time, no patients were affected and no staff injured.

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Irish ambulance chiefs issue rare warning after two vehicles catch fire in matter of days

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

I have come to the conclusion that politics are too serious a matter to be left to the politicians.

Charles de Gaulle

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