Baltic
Dry Index. 2258 +138 Brent Crude 69.35
Spot Gold 3360 US 2 Year Yield 3.91 +0.03
US Federal Debt. 37.146 trillion
US GDP 30.157 trillion.
Outsourcing American jobs will prove to be a plus for the economy in the long run. It's simply a new way of doing international trade.
Greg Mankiw
To no one’s surprise, the ECB left interest rates unchanged.
Asian stock casinos failed to follow US stock casinos lead.
Will there be a USA-EU trade deal announced this weekend?
In tomorrow’s LIR, more on Canada’s and Europe’s growing boycotts of US products and travel. Plus, “Making America Alone Again”.
Asia-Pacific stocks fall as investors weigh recent
trade developments
Updated Fri, Jul 25 2025 12:16 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets fell as investors
weighed recent trade developments.
India expects ‘preferential’ tariffs in a
trade deal with U.S., says India’s commerce minister
India expects to secure “preferential”
tariffs from the United States that are better than those achieved by its
economic rivals, according to India’s Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush
Goyal.
Goyal, who led the negotiations on the
U.K.-India trade agreement, signaled a confident approach from New Delhi in
ongoing trade talks with Washington.
Read the full story here.
— Ganesh Rao
----China markets fall at the open
Mainland China and Hong Kong stocks opened
lower, as the Asia-Pacific region was mostly in the red.
Mainland China’s CSI 300 was down 0.16%, while Hong
Kong’s Hang Seng Index —
which includes major Chinese companies — lost 0.53%.
The Hang Seng Tech Index, which tracks the
largest technology companies listed in Hong Kong, fell 1.07%.
—Lee Ying Shan
Tokyo inflation comes in lower than
expected
Inflation
in Japan’s capital of Tokyo came in at 2.9% for July, softening from
the 3.1% seen in June.
Core inflation, which strips out prices of
volatile fresh food, also fell to 2.9% in July from 3.1% in the previous month.
The latest reading was lower than the 3% expected by a Reuters poll of
economists.
Tokyo’s inflation figures are widely
considered to be a leading indicator of nationwide trends.
— Lim Hui Jie
Asia markets start Friday trading in the
red
Asia markets started the trading day
lower.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 fell 0.24%, while
the Topix lost 0.55%.
South Korea’s Kospi was flat and the
small-cap Kosdaq slipped 0.48%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.41%.
—Lee Ying Shan
Asia
stock market live updates
Stock futures inch higher after S&P 500,
Nasdaq score another record close: Live updates
Updated Fri, Jul 25 2025 8:00 PM EDT
Stock futures were relatively unchanged on
Thursday after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reached
another record closing high.
S&P 500 futures traded
up 0.16%, while Nasdaq 100
futures gained 0.12% Futures
tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 78 points, or 0.17%.
Thursday marked another positive day for
the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, as both indexes scored fresh all-time intraday and
closing highs. That marked the broad market index’s 13th record close of 2025,
four of which were recorded this week as the index finished
above 6,300 for the first time on Monday. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, has
seen three record closes this week, breaking
the 21,000 threshold on Wednesday.
While the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw
losses Thursday, all three major averages are on pace to finish the week with
gains. The 30-stock Dow is tracking for an almost 1% advance on the week, as is
the tech-heavy Nasdaq, while the S&P 500 has risen about 1.1% week to date.
The journey to all-time highs over this
past week has been supported by a strong earnings season, including Alphabet’s better-than-expected
earnings report. Almost 83% of the 155 S&P 500 companies that have
reported to date beat Wall Street’s expectations.
“This part of the rally has to broaden out
or become more consistent with what we’ve seen from the broader market in order
to keep going another leg higher,” said Keith Buchanan, senior portfolio
manager at Globalt Investments, on CNBC’s “Power Lunch” Thursday.
Recent trade deals between the U.S. and
its trading partners have also helped push the market to new heights. Earlier
this week, President Donald Trump announced
a “massive” trade deal with Japan, which includes 15% “reciprocal” tariffs.
The president also said this week that the U.S. and Indonesia have agreed
to the framework of a trade agreement.
Investors are now awaiting any further
trade announcements before the Trump administration’s Aug. 1 tariff deadline.
Next week is also when the Federal Reserve is
scheduled to meet once again. Policymakers are widely expected to keep interest
rates at their current target range of 4.25% to 4.5%.
More
Stock
market today: Live updates
European Central Bank holds interest rates as
tariff turmoil keeps policymakers on edge
Published Thu, Jul 24 2025 8:17 AM EDT Updated
Thu, Jul 24 2025 12:36 PM EDT
The European Central Bank on Thursday kept
interest rates steady amid major economic uncertainty, as the European Union
scrambles to negotiate
a trade agreement with the U.S. before the end of the month.
The ECB has cut interest rates at each of
its four meetings so far this year, taking its key deposit facility from 3% in
January to 2% in June. Last year it reduced rates from a record high of 4%.
“The environment remains exceptionally
uncertain, especially because of trade disputes,” the ECB said in a statement,
adding that its inflation and growth outlook from June remained
supported by recent data.
While annual inflation in the euro area
hit the central bank’s 2%
target last month, traders widely expected a hold in July — in large part
due to geopolitical volatility. The U.S. is the EU’s biggest bilateral trade and investment partner and the
27-member bloc exported 503
billion euros ($590 billion) in goods to the States last year.
As of Thursday, the future of that trade
relationship remained up in the air, with one
possibility being a 15% baseline tariff rate on all EU imports to the
U.S., along with retaliatory measures on the EU’s part.
More
European
Central Bank holds rates as tariffs keep policymakers on edge
New entrance fee to visit Europe set to triple,
says European Commission
Published Wed, Jul 23 2025 5:14 AM EDT Updated
Wed, Jul 23 2025 5:59 AM EDT
Some travelers may need to pay more to
enter parts of Europe come 2026.
The price for travel authorization under
the European Travel Information and Authorisation System is set to nearly
triple, according to an announcement from the European Commission Friday.
The system, known as ETIAS, hasn’t been
implemented yet. The authorization, which was adopted in 2018, has been
postponed several times, and is now set to take effect in the fourth quarter of
2026.
A proposal was made to increase the fee
from 7 euros ($8) to 20 euros ($23), according to the announcement.
Inflation and additional operational costs
were reasons for the price hike, according to the announcement.
The new fee comports with the price of
other travel authorizations, such as the U.K.‘s Electronic Travel Authorisation
(ETA) and the U.S.’ Electronic System for Travel Authorization, known as ESTA,
the European Commission said.
Currently, an ETA costs £16 ($21.70), and
the ESTA costs $21.
Who must pay it?
The ETIAS travel authorization applies
to visa-exempt travelers who want to visit 30 European countries for
stays of up to 90 days in a 180-day period. Some travelers are exempt from
the fee, including those who are under 18 years old or over 70 years old, as
well as family members of European Union citizens.
Travelers from 59 places will need to
obtain an ETIAS authorization, including those from Australia, Canada, Japan,
Singapore, South Korea, the United States and the United Kingdom.
The proposed adjustment is subject to a
two-month review period by the European Council and Parliament, according to
the announcement.
How
much is ETIAS? Fee set to triple for visa-free travelers to Europe
In other news, so you really, really, really,
want to visit the USA. Sadly, more ABUSA.
L.A. Man Detained at Airport Over Obama-Biden
T-Shirt
July 23, 2025
Rick Taylor, a seasoned
political consultant known for his work on both Democratic and Republican
campaigns, was recently detained by Customs and Border
Protection (CBP)
agents at an airport upon his return from a vacation in Turks and Caicos.
Taylor’s experience raises questions about the implications of political
expression in today’s America, as he suspects his treatment may be related to
the Obama-Biden
T-shirt he
had packed.
Miami International Airport
Upon arriving at Miami
International Airport with
his wife and daughter, Taylor found himself abruptly pulled from the security
line. He described the disorienting moment as one where he was “shaking a bit”
amidst confusion and distress. “And all I could think was, if I’m feeling this
– someone who’s been in rooms with mayors and senators – what must the others
in that room be going through?” he told the Westside Current in a subsequent
interview. Taylor’s ordeal began when a CBP agent inquired about his residency,
to which he replied, “Yeah, I live in Los Angeles.” Soon after, he
was escorted to a holding room, where he remained for approximately 45 minutes
with little communication from officers. “They don’t talk to you. They don’t
give you a reason. You’re just left confused, angry and worried,” Taylor
recounted.
As a man who previously ran campaigns for
notable leaders, including Richard Riordan, Los Angeles’ last
Republican mayor, and current Democratic Senator Alex Padilla,
Taylor’s background highlights a troubling juxtaposition with his recent
experience. Critically, he noted that “95 percent of the population” in the
waiting room were Latino and primarily Spanish-speaking, prompting him to
reflect, “If it can happen to someone like me – white, older, plugged in –
imagine what this must feel like to people who don’t have English, who don’t
know their rights?” Ironically, Taylor’s wife, a U.S. citizen originally from
Vietnam, had harbored fears of being flagged during their family trip. “I
reached out to a contact in the Trump administration before leaving,” Taylor
noted, “but I never thought it would be me” who would be detained.
As Taylor waited in the holding room, he
was allowed to keep his phone, which enabled him to text updates to his wife
and daughter. Finally, an agent told him to gather his luggage for inspection,
after which he was released. He remarked, “I kept thinking, if we’re in a
country where packing an Obama T-shirt makes you nervous at the border, what
kind of America are we living in? This isn’t the America I was raised in.”
---- The incident
raises larger concerns about the evolving role of Customs and Border Protection
and the apparent increase in scrutiny under the Trump administration.
Additionally, Taylor’s case parallels that of Norwegian tourist Mads
Mikkelsen, who was reportedly denied entry into the U.S. after officers
discovered a meme featuring Vice President J.D. Vance on his
phone. CBP, however, denied that Mikkelsen’s treatment was politically
motivated. In response to Taylor’s experience, CBP Public Affairs
Specialist Alan Regalado invited him to file a complaint to
ensure that the situation would be addressed. Regalado noted, “If Mr. Taylor
feels the need to, he is more than welcome to file a complaint online on our
website and someone will reach out to him to try and get to the bottom of
things.”
L.A. Man Detained
at Airport Over Obama-Biden T-Shirt
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
EU
to keep trade retaliation in reserve even as deal with US nears
Brussels
designs countermeasures that can be activated quickly if Donald Trump fails to
stick to agreed terms
24
July 2025
The
EU has designed its threatened trade retaliation against Donald Trump to be
rapidly applied at any point in the future, structuring the terms so the
countermeasures can snap back without lengthy deliberations among member
states.
Those
states voted on Thursday for tariffs of up to 30 per cent on €93bn worth of US
imports to the EU to take effect on August 7.
Two
diplomats told the Financial Times that these would be suspended if there was a
deal with Washington, as expected, by a deadline of August 1. However, they
will not be reversed so they can be activated quickly in case Donald Trump
fails to stick to agreed terms.
“Our
first, second and third priorities are to get to a negotiated outcome. But we
will not hesitate to use all tools available to us in case a deal is blocked or
not upheld,” said one of the diplomats.
The
two sides are closing in on a deal that would levy 15 per cent “reciprocal”
tariffs on most EU exports to the US, copying one sealed between Washington and
Tokyo this week.
However, if they fail and Trump carries out
his threat to raise tariffs to 30 per cent from August 1, the bloc would impose
its retaliatory measures. These target products including Boeing aircraft,
jeans, chicken and soyabeans.
A
levy would also be added to EU scrap metal, which the US uses for fresh steel
products.
Markets were upbeat about the prospect of an
EU-US trade agreement on Thursday morning after the FT reported that a deal
with 15 per cent reciprocal duties was close.
More
EU
to keep trade retaliation in reserve even as deal with US nears
Analysis-US-Japan
trade deal averts worst for global economy
23
July 2025
FRANKFURT
(Reuters) -Japan's trade agreement with the U.S. could serve as the benchmark
for many other deals currently being negotiated with Washington, and the global
economy could just about support the 15% level agreed overnight, economists
said.
Tokyo's
deal with the U.S. lowers tariffs on auto imports to 15% from levies totalling
27.5% previously. Duties that were due to come into effect on other Japanese
goods from August 1 will also be cut to 15% from 25%.
The
deal with the world's fourth-largest economy, which includes commitments for
U.S.-bound investment and loans, is the most significant of a clutch of pacts
U.S. President Donald Trump has concluded to date. It raises pressure on China
and the European Union, which both face crucial August deadlines.
Although
15% is still a significant duty, such a level is still manageable and less
damaging than the volatility created by the uncertainty, which has made it near
impossible for firms to plan investments, some economists argue.
"Average
tariffs for the U.S. were around 2.5% for 2024 (while) currently, average
tariffs stand around 17%," Mohit Kumar at Jefferies said, referring to the
rise in global duties since Trump's so-called "Liberation Day"
announcement on April 2.
"Our
base case remains that when the dust settles, we could see average tariffs
around 15%, though recent deals suggest that this number could be slightly
higher," Kumar said. "While a negative from a macro point of
view, the world can live with 15% or so tariffs."
Financial
markets heaved a sigh of relief on Wednesday.
AUTOMAKERS
LEAD STOCK GAINS
Japan's
Nikkei stock index jumped 3.5% on the deal but European shares were also
higher, driven by automakers, on growing optimism that workable deals are
possible.
"It
looks like the benchmark for major economies is going to be 10-15% and a
somewhat higher level for smaller economies," Derek Halpenny, head of
research at MUFG in London, said.
Volvo
Car stocks jumped more than 10% while Germany's Porsche, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and
Volkswagen, all with significant U.S. sales, rose between 4% and 7%.
"This
more positive trade news has really helped to ease investor fears that tariffs
are about to snap back higher on August 1," Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid
said.
"But
of course, the threat of much higher tariffs still remains for several large
economies, including the 30% on the EU, 35% on Canada and 50% on Brazil,"
Reid added. "We also know from experience that we might not know the
outcome until hours before the deadline."
Longer-term
U.S. inflation expectations eased a touch on the deal, suggesting that trade
agreements could alleviate some price fears and give the U.S. Federal Reserve
room to lower interest rates later this year.
However,
markets continue to see a close to zero chance of a Fed rate cut next week and
the first move is not fully priced in until October.
More
Analysis-US-Japan
trade deal averts worst for global economy
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Qantas, Virgin eye changes to battery power pack rules
Rechargeable
USB power banks could be banned from being used during a flight.
By David
Flynn, July 23 2025
Qantas and Virgin Australia could impose
strict conditions on passengers using USB battery packs, after a fire on board
a Virgin Australia flight earlier this week which is believed to have been
caused by a rechargeable lithium-ion battery.
Nobody was injured during the incident,
which is now being investigated by the Australian Transport Safety Bureau
(ATSB) and Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA).
“Any relevant findings from this
investigation may inform permanent changes to our battery policy to ensure the
safety of our guests and team members,” Virgin Australia said.
The airline is already using on-board
announcements to advise passengers to keep any power banks in an
easily-accessible location such as in the seatback pocket or in a small bag
under the seat in front of them, rather than in the overhead locker.
Virgin is also discouraging passengers
from using those battery packs during the flight.
While Qantas has not made any changes to
its existing power pack policy, the airline is closely monitoring the
investigation.
A notice on the Qantas website says “we don’t recommend the use or charging
of power banks onboard due to safety,” with “airbud/airpod cases” included in
the caution.
The inflight risk of battery packs
Battery packs containing lithium-ion
cells have become increasingly common among travellers as a way to recharge
their mobile phones, tablets and even laptops, despite most planes now
including USB outlets at every seat.
However, they run the risk of a process
called “thermal runaway” if the battery malfunctions, with a rapid release of
energy causing a chain reaction which produces extreme heat, fire or even an
explosion.
“The average passenger now travels with
at least 4 lithium battery devices,” notes CASA CEO and Director of Aviation
Safety Pip Spence.
Airlines around the world have banned
rechargeable lithium-ion battery packs from checked luggage, insisting they
remain in carry-on bags.
The US Federal Aviation Administration
(FAA) reported 34 lithium battery-related incidents in 2025, with 11 directly
linked to personal battery packs, with a staggering 388% increase in lithium
battery fires aboard US flights between 2015 and 2024.
Many airlines across Asia now ban power packs from being used during a flight – either
charging a device, or being recharged itself via a USB port – and require
passengers to keep the battery pack with them at their seat, rather than in the
overhead locker.
Qantas, Virgin: changes to battery power pack rules - Executive Traveller
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Another
weekend and another weekend closer to tariff global import inflation in the
USA. For now, the global stock casinos
think that Trump tariffs will be a walk in the park. I have my doubts. I think
they will be very and increasingly disruptive to global trade. I see a Great
Stagflation about to get underway. Have a great weekend everyone.
For the
only way in which a durable peace can be created is by world-wide restoration
of economic activity and international trade.
James Forrestal
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