Saturday, 19 July 2025

Special Update 19/07/2025 EU Tariffs 15%? Unthinkable Things.

Baltic Dry Index. 2052 +22             Brent Crude 69.28

Spot Gold 3350                   U S 2 Year Yield 3.88 -0.03

US Federal Debt. 37.121 trillion

US GDP 30.144 trillion

“The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.”

Benjamin Graham

In the stock casinos, more tariff disconnect. President Trump reportedly wants at least a minimum EU tariff of fifteen percent.

Next week, in the US stock casinos, the first of the “Magnificent Seven” start reporting their most recent results. What happens if the Mag 7 disappoints?

Don’t even think of such unthinkable things!

Dow closes more than 100 points lower after report says Trump seeks at least 15% tariff on EU imports: Live updates

Updated Fri, Jul 18 2025 4:19 PM EDT

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid Friday after President Donald Trump reportedly pushed for greater tariffs on the European Union.

The 30-stock Dow fell 142.30 points, or 0.32%, settling at 44,342.19. The S&P 500 lost 0.01% after hitting a record high earlier in the day, ultimately closing at 6,296.79. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.05%, ending at 20,895.66.

Trump is demanding a minimum tariff of between 15% and 20% in any deal with the EU, the Financial Times reported, citing three people briefed on the talks. The EU is attempting to reach a trade deal with the U.S. ahead of Trump’s Aug. 1 deadline, when Trump has vowed to begin implementing 30% tariffs on the bloc.

Traders also pored through the latest earnings reports and new U.S. economic data.

Data released Friday reflected a drop in consumers’ fears about tariff-induced inflation down to their lowest levels since February. The University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers for July reflected overall consumer sentiment rose 1.8% from June to 61.8, coming out exactly in line with the estimate and at the highest level since February.

On the earnings front, Netflix slid 5% after the company said its operating margin in the second half of this year will be lower than the first. Shares of 3M fell more than 3% after the company revised its organic sales growth forecast to reflect a gain of 2%. It previously gave a growth range of the “lower end of 2% to 3%.” A 2% post-earnings slide in American Express dragged the Dow lower.

Despite the mixed reaction to the latest corporate report, the season is off to a strong start.

With 12% of S&P 500 companies reporting results so far, 83% have beaten estimates. On Thursday, PepsiCo and United Airlines shares both popped after the respective companies beat analyst estimates on earnings. Those follow solid results from big banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs earlier in the week.

Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted weekly gains, rising 0.6% and 1.5%, respectively. The Dow was marginally lower on the week.

“It’s a risk-on environment, and while there’s chatter about Fed cuts, the reality is more nuanced,” said Ken Mahoney, CEO at Mahoney Asset Management. “Historically, bull cycles tend to perform better without rate cuts and the first cut is often a bearish signal, though there’s a valid case to be made this time around, especially with inflation cooling and GDP growth projections still intact after we got through the threat of massive tariffs.”

---- Mag 7 tech stocks to begin reporting next week

Magnificent Seven earnings are kicking off next week, with Alphabet and Tesla the first of the megacaps to report this earnings season. Their results will come at a time when the S&P 500 is approaching all-time highs, powered by ongoing enthusiasm in the AI trade alongside a strong corporate earnings season so far.

Together, the megacap companies are projected to post earnings growth of over 14% in the second quarter, while the other 493 S&P 500 companies that are set to grow just 3.4%, according to FactSet’s John Butters.

For more on analysts’ expectations and the week ahead, read here.

Stock market news for July 18, 2025

Warren Buffett has set alarm bells ringing on Wall Street

18 July 2025

Wall Street banks are coining it in Donald Trump’s America. Goldman Sachs this week reported a 22pc jump in profits, driven by record trading revenues as tariffs roiled stock markets.

Citigroup’s profits jumped by 25pc, beating analysts’ expectations. The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index is close to an all-time high.

But not everyone is convinced that the good times are going to last.

Warren Buffett, the so-called Sage of Omaha, has been shedding his US bank holdings. At the start of the year, Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway sold about $3.2bn (£2.4bn) of shares in American banks and financial companies.

Buffett sold about a $1bn stake in Citigroup, ditched shares worth more than $2bn in Bank of America and dropped some of its holdings in Capital One.

“Berkshire has clearly been reducing its exposure to US bank stocks,” Larry Cunningham, director of the John L. Weinberg Center for Corporate Governance at the University of Delaware, says.

“That activity signals a cautious or even bearish outlook on banking.”

Moves of this size are not unusual for Berkshire Hathaway. But Buffett, arguably the most successful investor of all time, has a reputation for being preternaturally gifted at foreseeing market trends.

The 94-year-old, who will retire as Berkshire Hathaway chief at the end of this year, built a record cash pile of $350bn before markets slumped earlier this year, leading analysts to say he had seen the crash coming. Millions of loyal followers watch his every move.

Could his decision to ditch banking stocks signal a slump is on the cards?

Policy roller-coaster

Buffett is not alone in selling. Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan’s chief executive, sold around $31.5m of his holdings in the investment bank in April, his first sale since he took the top job in 2005.

Analysts believe Trump’s economic policy roller-coaster is going to finally hit the American economy in the second half of the year.

US inflation rose to 2.7pc in June, with economists saying this is a sign of things to come. Banks will be the canary in the coal mine for any economic issues.

The president’s recent threats to sack Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell will only add to concerns that economic policy is going off the rails.

Buffett may have made a bet that America’s banks have peaked.

More

Warren Buffett has set alarm bells ringing on Wall Street

In other news, the Electric Fire Engine. Second in uselessness to the Electric Army Tank. “Please don’t shoot at our Tank's battery pack due to the fire risk.”

Canberra's issue-plagued $1.6 million hybrid electric fire truck is out of action again

17 July 2025

A $1.6 million hybrid electric fire truck, delivered to ACT emergency services two years ago, has been taken off the road again due to battery issues.

Meanwhile a fully electric truck which arrived in late 2023 is yet to enter service.

Costing about $700,000 more than a diesel truck and touted as an Australian-first when the agreement with manufacturer Rosenbauer was signed in 2021, the plug-in hybrid electric fire truck did not go into operation until late last year.

Even then, for several months it had to be accompanied by another fire truck when it attended emergencies, in case it did not work as intended.

The truck was taken off the road in January due to a problem with its main water hose pump.

Now, an ACT Emergency Services Agency (ESA) spokesperson has confirmed it is again offline, this time over a "mechanical issue involving its battery packs". 

"Our teams are working closely with the manufacturer to resolve the issue and return the vehicle to service as soon as possible," the ESA said in a statement.

Value for money?

An ACT Auditor-General's report has slammed the process used for procuring the truck, saying it failed to adequately assess the vehicle's value for money.

The United Firefighters Union says it was negotiating an enterprise agreement with ESA, at the same time as the deal with Rosenbauer was being signed which mandated the deployment of an additional pumper and crew to a new fire station in Acton by the end of 2021.

The Rosenbauer hybrid electric fire truck was to be based at the Acton station.

The station was not completed until last month and became operational this week.

The union's ACT secretary Greg McConville said the absence of the hybrid electric fire truck was a source of "great frustration".

"We're using conventional pumpers and the reason for that is that despite all the work our members have done trying to get [the hybrid electric truck] on the road, it keeps being beset with problems," Mr McConville said.

"A conscious decision was made to get that truck, instead of two other conventional trucks which were tried and proven.

"And the result of that is that we are three years late in getting additional resources on the road to protect the Canberra community.

"The Canberra community expects fire protection; it doesn't expect trinkets and unfortunately that's what this seems to be turning out to be," he said.

More

Canberra's issue-plagued $1.6 million hybrid electric fire truck is out of action again

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.        

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation/recession now needs an entire section of its own.

Is America Breaking the Global Economy?

What an Age of Economic Uncertainty Will Mean for the World

Mohamed A. El-Erian  July 14, 2025

The global economy is, to put it mildly, in a state of flux. Before the most recent U.S. elections, it was already being buffeted by geopolitical shocks and the prospect of transformative technological innovations. But now, it also has to endure an unusually high amount of policy volatility from the world’s most powerful country. The result has been a roller coaster not just for bonds and equities but also for economic forecasters and policymakers.

At a deeper level, this turmoil has called into question consensus narratives about the United States. Long-standing assumptions that underpin the choices households, companies, and investors make have gone away. Rules of thumb have become far less helpful. Measures of consumer and producer confidence fell off a cliff. Expectations of inflation, meanwhile, surged to levels last seen in 1981.

Amid this deep uncertainty, forecasters have struggled to predict where the U.S. economy will ultimately end up. But two main visions bookend a dispersed and unstable set of individual projections. In the first, the United States is on a bumpy journey that will culminate in an economic restructuring resembling the ones that took place under U.S. President Ronald Reagan and British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, where it will emerge with less debt and a more efficient private sector and where it will trade in a fairer international system. In the second scenario, the country is slowly slipping into the stagflation and, as happened under U.S. President Jimmy Carter, could end up in a deep recession, perhaps with pronounced financial instability.

Whatever the outcome proves to be, it will have international ramifications. Since the end of World War II, the U.S. economy and financial system have been at the center of global markets. Washington carries great influence in multilateral institutions. The United States has long been the only reliable driver of world economic growth, and it leads in the development and adoption of most productivity-enhancing innovations, such as artificial intelligence, life sciences, and robotics. Many foreign investors have outsourced the management of their savings and wealth to American financial markets, thanks to their deep liquidity and strong architecture. The dollar is the world’s reserve currency. If the United States slips into stagflation, other parts of the planet are at risk of doing so as well.

Most governments seem to know this. That is why countries around the world are seeking to insulate themselves from the policy volatility emanating from Washington. Europe, for example, is striving to improve its regional standing while forging new and more robust economic relationships with Africa, Asia, and Latin America. China, meanwhile, sees an opportunity to position itself as the more reliable economic superpower. Yet so far, these efforts are running into headwinds. There is simply no other country that is as wealthy or powerful enough to step into the United States’ shoes.

With little prospect for stability, governments, companies, and investors will need to do more to insure themselves against potential damage. They must be agile and flexible. They need capital and human resilience, so they can absorb setbacks and fund new initiatives. And they need to be open to fresh ways of thinking and behaving. If these actors can become more nimble, they will survive the volatility—and perhaps emerge better for it. But if they freeze up, they will undermine the well-being of both the world’s current generations and its future ones.

A PAUSE ON EXEPTIONALISM

The United States is still the most powerful and prosperous country in the world, and it has mature institutions. But in economic and financial terms, the country now sometimes resembles a developing nation. Like countries with immature tax systems that desperately need revenue, Washington erected sudden, high tariffs on most external goods. It then slipped into a Swiss cheese approach to concessions—exempting products and sectors in a seemingly arbitrary manner. It did all this as its deficit continued to increase. Indeed, at times, it looks as if U.S. officials have adopted an approach to policymaking more akin to what happened in parts of Latin America than to what one would expect from the most powerful economy in the world.

More

Is America Breaking the Global Economy? | Foreign Affairs

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

HIGH FLYER 

Solar-powered 236-foot ‘Skydweller’ aircraft flies for mind-boggling 90 DAYS without stopping

The carbon fiber drone is set to fly for up to 90 days straight - far longer than existing aircrafts, according to its creators

Millie Turner, Senior Technology & Science Reporter

Published: 16:46, 17 Jul 2025  Updated: 16:46, 17 Jul 2025

AEROSPACE boffins have unveiled a solar-powered surveillance drone that can fly for several months at a time - achieving near-constant eyes in the sky.

US tech startup Skydweller Aero has partnered with French defence systems specialist Thales to build a new type of maritime surveillance drone.

As tech on the ground gets smarter, so too must the machines in the sky.

The carbon fibre drone is set to fly for up to 90 days straight - far longer than existing aircraft, according to its creators.

While its initial flight milestone will be three months, the aircraft has the potential to fly almost continuously.

It takes it power directly from the sun, so there's no need to land and refuel.

In May, British jet Zephyr broke the world record for the longest continuous flight - spending 67 days in the sky.

That's the equivalent of 1,608 hours.

The Skydweller has over 17,000 individual solar cells across its approximately 2,900 square feet (270 square meters) wing surface to capture the sun's rays and convert it into power.

Its wingspan is 236ft - longer than a Boeing 747.

Despite its similar wingspan, it weighs a whopping 160 times less than a traditional 'jumbo jet'.

The surveillance drone doesn't really have capacity for much cargo either - sporting just 2.5 metric tons at maximum capacity in comparison to 400 tons for the 747 at full payload.

In ideal conditions with minimal cloud cover, the solar cells can generate up to 100 kilowatts of power for the aircraft.

The drone can only refuel when the sun is out, which means it relies on over 1,400 pounds (635 kilograms) of batteries to power it through the night.

Skydweller flies slightly lower than the average commercial carrier, at an altitude of between 24,600 and 34,400ft, on average.

However, it can fly as high as 44,600ft during the day, before dropping by between 4,900 and 9,800ft at night to minimise power consumption.

More

Solar-powered 236-foot 'Skydweller' aircraft flies for mind-boggling 90 DAYS without stopping | The Sun

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Exponent Calculator

Enter values into any two of the input fields to solve for the third.

Exponent Calculator

This weekend’s music diversion. Beethoven again. Approx. 7 minutes.

Beethoven “Tempest” piano sonata 17, opus.31 No. 2 III “Allegretto” GALINA EFIMOVA PIANO

Beethoven “Tempest” piano sonata 17, opus.31 No. 2 III “Allegretto” GALINA EFIMOVA PIANO

In Trump tariff war news. Approx. 16 minutes.

Trump Tariffs and Falling Numbers from China Impact Container Imports into the United States

Container Update Mid-2025 | June Record in the Port of Los Angeles | China Container Volumes Down

Finally, more on the AI 171 crash.  Approx.20 minutes.  

AIR INDIA CRASH - ALL IS NOT WHAT IT SEEMS #airindiacrash

AIR INDIA CRASH - ALL IS NOT WHAT IT SEEMS #airindiacrash

Air India Crash Update: Pilot Claims Plane Was Already Plagued by Electrical and Digital Failures Before Flight

18 July 2025

Fresh revelations into the tragic crash of Air India Flight 171 have uncovered a series of electrical and digital malfunctions in the weeks leading up to the accident, prompting questions over whether technical faults may have played a role in the fatal sequence of events.

The Boeing 787 Dreamliner crashed less than a minute after take-off from Ahmedabad on June 12, killing all but one of the 242 people onboard, including all passengers and crew on board, and 19 people on the ground.

Last week, a preliminary investigation report suggested that there was a sudden fuel shut-off to both engines shortly after lift-off, as the cockpit audio revealed the conversation between the two pilots over the fuel switch. However, investigators are now also examining whether a broader pattern of technical issues contributed to the disaster.

Mechanical Concerns Prior to Crash

It has since emerged that just hours before the fatal flight, the aircraft was flagged for a technical issue by a different pilot. According to reports from Indian media, the entry in the technical log identified a fault with the 'stabiliser position transducer', a sensor that controls the aircraft's nose movement and relays critical pitch data to the flight control system.

Although engineers reportedly followed Boeing's troubleshooting guidance, the issue was considered serious. One official told The Indian Express, 'The malfunction is a critical issue as it can trigger incorrect responses in flight control, including unintended fuel cut-off signal.'

More

Air India Crash Update: Pilot Claims Plane Was Already Plagued by Electrical and Digital Failures Before Flight

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t, pays it.”

Albert Einstein 

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