Baltic
Dry Index. 2257 -01
Brent Crude 68.79
Spot Gold 3340 US 2 Year Yield 3.91 unch.
US Federal Debt. 37.158 trillion
US GDP 30.163 trillion.
Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance.
George Bernard Shaw
To no one’s great surprise, the USA and EU reached a trade deal yesterday. Well, announced a tariff deal, sort of. Each side had a different spin.
On Friday, August 1st, one sided US tariffs go into effect for most of the rest of the world, unless of course, President TACO delays them yet again.
Far from getting the 90 deals in 90 days, President Trump once boasted of, as far a I can see, President Trump has struck sort of deals with Britain, China, Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines and the EU.
American consumers now face paying higher prices for autos, coffee, orange juice, French and Italian cheese, olive oil, German cars and wines, imported steel and aluminium, toys, drugs and just about everything else imported into the USA.
A Great Global Economic Disruption now lies ahead.
Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed as investors
await details of U.S-China talks
Updated Mon, Jul 28 2025 12:28 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Monday,
with investors awaiting more details of the trade talks between the U.S. and China, which were set
to kick off in Stockholm later in the day.
The talks will be led by U.S. Treasury
Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. Bessent said on Fox
Business that he expects a trade-truce extension during the
negotiations, which he added will include a broader range of topics, such as
Beijing’s oil purchases from Russia and Iran.
The U.S.-China talks followed U.S.
President Donald Trump’s announcement that the U.S. had reached an agreement
with the European Union on Sunday stateside.
The president had previously threatened
30% tariffs on most imported goods from the U.S.’s largest trading partner.
Here are today’s highlights:
- Shares
of Japanese semiconductor equipment maker Advantest plunged
over 10% in early trade
- Samsung
Electronics’ shares rose after it announced its $16.5 billion contract
to supply
semiconductors to Tesla
- Hong
Kong’s CK Hutchison wants a Chinese firm as a ‘major strategic investor’
for a BlackRock-led
consortium bidding for its ports business
- Vietnamese
stocks hit
a fresh high, extending gains for the fifth session
- Indonesian
stocks hit a nine-month
high, extending its rally for fourth session
Indian stocks fall in early trade
Indian stocks fell
in early trade Monday.
The 50-stock
benchmark Nifty 50 was down
0.21% while the BSE Sensex index lost 0.22% as of 9.30 a.m. Indian Standard
time (12 a.m. ET).
More
Asia
stock markets today: live updates
US and EU reach tariff agreement to avert trade
war
Deal follows Scotland talks between Donald
Trump and European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen
27 July 2025
The US and EU have struck a tariff deal
that will avert a transatlantic trade war between the two sides but still
impose American tariffs of 15 per cent on most imports from the bloc.
As part of the deal the EU has agreed to
spend hundreds of billions of dollars on US energy products and weapons, and
accepted a broad 15 per cent levy that covers many key European exports,
including cars.
The agreement was struck following a
meeting on Sunday between US President Donald Trump and European Commission
President Ursula von der Leyen at his Turnberry golf resort in Scotland.
The deal marks a victory for Trump, who
has spent months forcing America’s trading partners into bruising negotiations
by threatening steep tariffs, although the terms are in line with what Brussels
had told EU member states to prepare for.
“This is probably the biggest deal ever
reached in any capacity, trade or beyond trade,” Trump said as he announced the
agreement.
“Today’s
deal creates certainty in uncertain times . . . for citizens and businesses on
both sides of the Atlantic,” von der Leyen said, adding that the 15 per cent US
tariff would apply to European cars, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors —
important products for Brussels.
A senior US official later confirmed that
European exports of automobiles, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors to the US
would all be subject to the 15 per cent tariff.
However, Trump said US levies on steel and
aluminium, which he has set at 50 per cent on many countries across the world,
would not be cut to 15 per cent for EU products — dashing the hopes of industry
in the bloc for an early and low tariff quota.
He said the US would put tariffs of 15 per
cent on EU goods, including automobiles, in exchange for the bloc “opening up
their countries at zero tariff” to American exports.
He had threatened to impose 30 per cent
tariffs on the EU if no deal had been struck by August 1.
Trump said the EU would spend an
additional $750bn on US energy products, invest $600bn in America and buy “a
vast amount” of his country’s military equipment worth “hundreds of billions of
dollars” as part of the deal.
Von der Leyen confirmed the EU would seek
to buy $250bn of US energy products each year for the next three years.
“With this deal we are securing access to
our largest export market,” she said, while acknowledging that the 15 per cent
US tariff would be “a challenge for some” European industries.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz saluted
the agreement as “avoiding an unnecessary escalation in transatlantic trade
relations”.
He said a trade war “would have hit
Germany’s export-oriented economy hard”, highlighting how the German automotive
industry would now see US tariffs cut from 27.5 per cent to 15 per cent.
However, Wolfgang Niedermark, board member
of the Federation of German Industries trade body, called the agreement “an
inadequate compromise”, with the EU “accepting painful tariffs”.
A 15 per cent US tariff rate “will
have a huge negative impact on Germany’s export-oriented industry”, he said.
Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who
had urged restraint to avert an escalatory trade war, welcomed the deal.
More
US
and EU reach tariff agreement to avert trade war
U.S. and China to resume tariff talks on Monday in
effort to extend truce
Published Sun, Jul 27 2025 4:23 PM EDT
Senior U.S. and Chinese negotiators meet
in Stockholm on Monday to tackle longstanding economic disputes at the center
of the countries’ trade war, aiming to extend a truce keeping sharply higher
tariffs at bay.
China is facing an Aug.
12 deadline to reach a durable tariff agreement with President Donald Trump’s administration,
after Beijing and Washington reached a preliminary deal in June to end weeks of
escalating tit-for-tat tariffs.
Without an agreement, global supply chains
could face renewed turmoil from duties exceeding 100%.
The Stockholm talks, led by U.S. Treasury
Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, take place a day
after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met Trump at his golf
course in Scotland to clinch a deal that would see a 15%
baseline tariff on most EU goods.
Trade analysts on both sides of the
Pacific say the discussions in the Swedish capital are unlikely to produce any
breakthroughs but could prevent further escalation and help create conditions
for Trump and Chinese President Xi
Jinping to meet later this year.
Previous U.S.-China trade talks in Geneva
and London in May and June focused on bringing U.S. and Chinese retaliatory
tariffs down from triple-digit levels and restoring the flow of rare earth
minerals halted by China and Nvidia H20 AI chips and other goods halted by the
United States.
So far, the talks have not delved into
broader economic issues. They include U.S. complaints that China’s state-led,
export-driven model is flooding world markets with cheap goods, and Beijing’s
complaints that U.S. national security export controls on tech goods seek to
stunt Chinese growth.
“Stockholm will be the first meaningful
round of U.S.-China trade talks,” said Bo Zhengyuan, Shanghai-based partner at
China consultancy firm Plenum.
More
What the prediction markets are saying about the
big Wall Street events ahead
Published Fri, Jul 25 20253:08 PM EDT
The coming week poses a critical test for
the stock market’s record-setting run with a number of make-or-break events —
the Federal Reserve’s rate decision,
July jobs report and President Donald Trump’s tariffs deadline.
Popular wagers on prediction platforms
Kalshi and Polymarket offer an alternative view into how the mainstream thinks
things will unfold next week. These markets became established in the run-up to
the 2024 presidential election and have been widely used by investors and even
Wall Street strategists to gauge the consensus crowd view of a certain event.
The S&P 500 has
rebounded more than 30% off its low on April 7, reaching consecutive record
highs this week after the benchmark closed above 6,300 for the
first time. Investors have cheered resilient economic growth and corporate
profits even in the face of higher tariffs. Still, next week marks a wild
card that could easily derail the bull run.
Fed meeting
Consistent with the pricing in the futures
markets, prediction platform Kalshi is assigning virtually no chance for a rate
cut when the Fed meets next week.
But the prediction markets do anticipate
some drama during the Fed meeting with Powell perhaps losing his grip on the
consensus of his peers.
Kalshi is pricing in a 82% chance of a
dissenting vote against a no-cut decision. Notably, Fed Governors Michelle Bowman
and Christopher Waller have said they would favor a rate cut in July so
long as inflation pressures stay muted. So they could be the two that emerge.
Fed Chairman Powell and his fellow
policymakers have been reluctant to lower rates as they wait to see the impact
that Trump’s tariffs have on inflation. Powell has also argued that the economy
is strong enough that it can withstand higher rates as officials watch how the
data evolves.
----Jobs report
July jobs report next Friday will offer a
fresh look at the health of the labor market that has been resilient in the
face of Trump’s tariffs.
Kalshi traders expect a solid jobs report
in the Goldilocks range. Kalshi is pricing in a 79% chance that the payroll
number will be higher than 100,000, but just an 18% chance that it
will be higher than 150,000. The jobless rate has been assigned a 55%
likelihood to be above 4.1%.
For context, economists polled by FactSet
expect that the U.S. economy will have added 115,000 jobs in July, down from
147,000 in June. The unemployment rate is expected to have edged up to 4.2%
from 4.1% previously.
Aug. 1 tariff deadline
The world is bracing for more erratic
trade headlines as the Aug. 1 deadline approaches. Trump said Friday there
is a 50-50 chance that the
U.S. would reach a trade agreement with the European Union.
European Commission President Ursula von
der Leyen posted on X later Friday that she and Trump have agreed to meet in Scotland
on Sunday to discuss trade. The EU is preparing countermeasures in
case of a no-deal scenario. The prediction market is pricing in a 53% likelihood
of a deal with the EU.
As for China, which faces an Aug. 12 deadline to reach a
deal, Polymarket assigns an 83% chance that the two countries will come to an
agreement.
What the
prediction markets are saying about the big Wall Street events ahead
Trump’s trade deals and tariffs are on the
chopping block in court. What happens next
Published Sat, Jul 26 2025 8:00 AM EDT Updated
Sat, Jul 26 2025 3:51 PM EDT
President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff powers and
recent trade deals could soon
run into a legal buzzsaw.
A federal appeals court is set to hear
oral arguments next week in a high-profile lawsuit challenging
Trump’s stated authority to effectively slap tariffs at any level on any
country at any time, so long as he deems them necessary to address a national
emergency.
The Trump administration says that that
expansive tariff power derives from the International Emergency Economic Powers
Act, or IEEPA.
The bulk of Trump’s biggest tariffs —
including his fentanyl-related duties on Canada, Mexico and China, and the
worldwide “reciprocal” tariffs he first unveiled in early April — rest on his
invocation of that law.
The U.S. Court of International
Trade struck those
tariffs down in
late May, ruling that Trump exceeded his authority under IEEPA.
But the U.S. Court of Appeals for the
Federal Circuit quickly paused that decision, keeping the tariffs in effect
while Trump’s legal challenge plays out.
The case, known as V.O.S. Selections v.
Trump, is the furthest along of more than half a dozen federal lawsuits
challenging Trump’s use of the emergency-powers law.
It’s set for oral argument before the
Federal Circuit on Thursday morning.
“I think the tariffs are at risk,” said
Ted Murphy, partner and head of global trade practice at law firm Sidley
Austin, in an interview with CNBC.
The law has “never been used for this
purpose,” and it’s “being used quite broadly,” Murphy said. “So I think there
are legitimate questions.”
V.O.S.
IEEPA gives Trump some powers to deal
with national
emergencies stemming
from “any unusual and extraordinary threat” that comes in whole or in large
part from outside the U.S.
But attorneys representing the handful of
small businesses that sued Trump argue that the law does not let him
unilaterally impose tariffs.
“IEEPA nowhere mentions tariffs, duties,
imposts, or taxes, and no other President in the statute’s nearly 50-year
history has claimed that it authorizes tariffs,” they wrote in a court
brief this
month.
Attorneys for Trump and his
administration, however, argue that Congress has long empowered presidents to
impose tariffs to address key national concerns.
They
argue that
the statute’s language authorizing Trump to “regulate … importation” means he
can use it to impose tariffs.
Supreme Court incoming
No matter how the Federal Circuit
ultimately rules in V.O.S., the case appears destined for the Supreme Court,
which bears a 6-3 conservative majority and includes three justices appointed
by Trump.
But some experts still expect that Trump’s
IEEPA tariffs will be scrapped.
“Trump will probably continue to lose in
the lower courts, and we believe the Supreme Court is highly unlikely to rule
in his favor,” U.S. policy analysts from Piper Sandler wrote in a research note
Friday morning.
More
Trump's trade
deals, tariffs face key test in court next week
In other news, despite all the froth in the
stock casinos, is money getting tight all around? What happens, if it is, with
tariffs still largely to hit?
Auction sales fall 6% in the first half, raising
fears of an art market shift
Published Fri, Jul 25 2025 10:53 AM EDT
Auction sales have been declining for the
third year in a row, as dealers, auctioneers and collectors ponder a deeper
crisis in the art market.
Auction sales for the first half of the
year at Sotheby’s, Christie’s and Phillips fell to $3.98 billion, a drop of 6%
compared with the same period in 2024, according to ArtTactic. The auction
total is the lowest in at least a decade (setting aside the 2020 pandemic) and
is now down 44% — or more than $3 billion — from 2022. The declines follow a
19% drop in 2023 and 26% decline in 2024.
Postwar and contemporary art, which has
been the main engine of growth for art auctions in recent decades, fell by an
even greater 19% in the first half, according to ArtTactic.
“Lingering concerns over global economic
growth, ongoing inflation, and rising geopolitical tensions are weighing on
confidence and creating a more cautious investment climate,” ArtTactic said.
“These factors are likely to challenge the market’s momentum in the second half
of the year, as the industry adapts to a still-uncertain global landscape.”
Those lingering concerns, however, aren’t
showing up in other areas of the wealth economy. The prosperity of the wealthy
is at record levels, with the top 10% of Americans adding $37 trillion to their
wealth since Covid, marking a 45% increase. Stock markets were up more than 20%
in both 2023 and 2024 and are up again so far in 2025. Housing values and
business valuations have also soared, adding to personal wealth.
Yale professor William Goetzmann has
studied the relationship between art prices and financial wealth going back
over 300 years and found they are “highly correlated.”
“Demand for art increases with the wealth
of art collectors,” he wrote in his famous paper “Accounting for Taste, Art and
the Financial Markets over Three Centuries.”
With personal wealth at all-time highs,
however, Goetzmann said the 300-year correlation is broken. He said there are
one of two explanations for the divergence: Either the dip in the art market is
a temporary aberration and will bounce back this year or next, or the art
market is going through a more structural change.
“The question is, is there some kind of
fundamental deviation from the social norm of the very wealthy being highly
involved in collecting art at the highest prices and levels,” he said. “We
don’t know yet.”
More
Auction sales fall 6% in the first half, raising fears for art market
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Trump’s
Tariff Blitz Sparks Global Trade Tensions and Economic Uncertainty
27
July 2025
U.S.
President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, announced in a series of
letters to global trading partners, are sending shockwaves through the world
economy.
With
proposed tariffs of 30% on imports from the European Union and Mexico, a
staggering 50% on Brazil for political reasons, and 25% on Japan, the U.S. is
escalating a trade war that threatens to disrupt decades of global trade
liberalization. These measures, set to take effect on August 1, 2025, are
fueling economic uncertainty and prompting dire forecasts, with the
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) projecting global
growth to slow to 2.3% in 2025—the weakest in 17 years outside of recession
periods. As nations brace for retaliatory measures and markets reel, Trump’s
tariff strategy is reshaping global trade dynamics with far-reaching
consequences.
A
Wave of Tariffs Targets Key Trading Partners
President
Trump’s latest tariff announcements, detailed in letters posted to his Truth
Social platform, target some of the U.S.’s largest trading partners. The 30%
tariffs on the EU and Mexico, two of the U.S.’s top trade partners, aim to
address what Trump calls “unfair” trade deficits. In 2024, the U.S. trade
deficit with the EU was $235.6 billion, while Mexico’s trade surplus with the
U.S. has long been a point of contention. Trump’s letter to Mexican President
Claudia Sheinbaum also cited the flow of fentanyl across the border as a
justification, though critics argue the tariffs are more about economic
leverage than drug enforcement.
Brazil
faces an even steeper 50% tariff, a move Trump explicitly linked to the
political prosecution of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, a close
ally. This politicization of trade policy has raised eyebrows, with analysts
warning that it sets a dangerous precedent for using tariffs as a tool for
geopolitical score-settling. Japan, a key U.S. ally, was slapped with a 25%
tariff, particularly impacting its automotive sector, which accounts for 20% of
its exports to the U.S. The Nikkei 225 plummeted 7.8% on April 7, 2025,
following an earlier tariff announcement, underscoring the economic toll on
export-heavy economies.
These
tariffs build on a broader strategy that began in April 2025, when Trump
imposed a 10% global tariff and higher rates on 57 countries, raising the
average U.S. tariff rate from 2.5% to an estimated 27%—the highest in over a
century. Sector-specific levies, including 50% on steel and aluminum and 25% on
autos, have further amplified the impact. The White House argues that these
measures will boost domestic manufacturing and generate $100 billion in tax
revenue, but critics warn of higher consumer prices and global retaliation.
Global
Economic Fallout and Recession Fears
The
OECD’s forecast of 2.3% global growth in 2025 reflects the mounting economic
strain from Trump’s tariffs. The organization slashed its projections from 3.3%
in December 2024, citing “higher trade barriers” and “increased geopolitical
and policy uncertainty” as key drivers. The U.S. economy is expected to grow at
just 2.2% in 2025, down from 2.4%, while Canada’s growth was cut to 0.7% and
Mexico’s to a contraction of 1.3%. J.P. Morgan now estimates a 60% chance of a
global recession by year-end, up from 40%, as markets grapple with the fallout.
Consumers
are already feeling the pinch. The Penn Wharton Budget Model projects that
Trump’s tariffs will raise $5.2 trillion in revenue over 10 years but reduce
U.S. GDP by 8% and wages by 7%, with the average household facing a $58,000
lifetime loss. Higher prices for imported goods, from cars to canned food, are
expected to add $1,300 annually to household costs in 2025 alone. For example,
economist Arthur Laffer estimates that the 25% auto tariff could increase new
car prices by $4,711, hitting consumers and industries reliant on imported
parts.
More
Trump’s
Tariff Blitz Sparks Global Trade Tensions and Economic Uncertainty
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Why do COVID-19 cases rise every summer? CDC reports surge in Texas, 9
other states
July 25, 2025
The seasonal surge in
COVID-19 cases has arrived, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
(CDC) reports an increase in activity in the majority of states.
As the U.S. approaches
the midpoint of summer, the CDC is reporting cases of the virus are growing or
likely to grow in 26 states, including Texas. A July 18 report used data from
emergency department visits in its epidemic trend modeling. This modeling reflects
trends in overall cases, not the actual numbers.
COVID summer 2025 surge: Why do cases rise every
summer?
The rate of positive
COVID-19 tests is increasing nationally, the CDC said, based on data from the last week, with emergency department visits for the virus
increasing among children 4 years old and younger.
Although there is an
uptick in COVID-19 cases in more than two dozen states, the CDC reports that
the overall number of people seeking care for acute respiratory illnesses
remains at a very low level. That's accompanied by low levels of seasonal
influenza activity and very low levels of RSV activity, the CDC says.
Overall, trends in
COVID-19 cases continue downward as compared to the last few years, according
to long-term data trends in deaths, emergency room visits and positive
cases.
The U.S. has experienced
a surge in COVID-19 cases every summer since 2020. The CDC attributes the July and August increases to a variety of
virological, behavioral and environmental factors. For one, most get annual
vaccinations in the fall, so by late summer, those individuals' immunity
"has waned considerably." Infection also becomes more likely as more
transmissible variants emerge.
The summer heat drives
people indoors to air-conditioned spaces, where restrictions on ventilation and
air circulation enable the virus to spread more easily. Travel also peaks in
the summer, and this year's season has proven particularly popular with travelers,
as demonstrated by record-breaking numbers over the Memorial Day and Independence Day. The CDC warns that in addition to the higher rates
of exposure related to travel, those who partake "may be more likely to
write off mild symptoms as simply the result of jet lag, not illness."
More
Why do COVID-19 cases rise every summer? CDC reports surge in Texas, 9
other states
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
HydroGraph launches
Compounding Partner Program to expand graphene-enhanced thermoplastics
Through
the establishment of a qualified network of partners, HydroGraph is
building commercial availability of unreinforced and reinforced thermoplastic
compounds that incorporate its Fractal Graphene material.
Published 07/25/2025
HydroGraph Clean Power Inc. (Vancouver, BC, Canada), producer of
high-purity graphene, has announced the launch of the Compounding Partner
Program aimed at accelerating the adoption of its high-performance Fractal
Graphene in unreinforced and fiber-reinforced thermoplastics.
The initiative establishes a qualified
network of plastic compounders with demonstrated expertise in processing
graphene-enhanced thermoplastic materials, with early partners already piloting
new formulations across automotive and packaging sectors. Participants in the
program will undergo a qualification process to ensure adherence to
performance, quality and consistency benchmarks defined by HydroGraph’s
technical lab.
“Establishing a select network of
certified compounders enables HydroGraph to ensure consistent processing of
Fractal Graphene at commercial scale,” says Kjirstin Breure,
president and CEO of HydroGraph. “This initiative provides end customers with a
vetted supply chain for sourcing graphene-enhanced compounds with confidence.”
Qualified partners will receive
technical support, knowledge transfer and business referrals for
commercial opportunities. The program is designed for compounders with advanced
material capabilities, strong quality control systems and a track record
in innovative product development.
Fractal Graphene is a turbostratic
graphene material manufactured using HydroGraph’s patented detonation synthesis
technology. Characterized by its 99.8% carbon purity and consistent morphology,
the material’s fractal structure enables performance at addition rates 10
to 100 times lower than conventional graphene nanoplatelets, offering potential
reductions in material use, cost and environmental impact. Unlike
traditional forms of graphene, which often require high loadings that may
affect processability or material properties, Fractal Graphene achieves
mechanical and electrical enhancements at ultra-low concentrations.
HydroGraph’s production method is designed to operate with low energy and
carbon intensity compared to traditional manufacturing approaches.
HydroGraph’s certified compounding
partners will support customers across industries seeking lighter,
stronger and more sustainable materials, including automotive,
construction, packaging, agriculture and textiles.
Plastic compounders interested in
joining HydroGraph’s Compounding Partner Program can contact the company
at partners@hydrograph.com.
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
The
longer I live, the more convinced am I that this planet is used by other
planets as a lunatic asylum.
George Bernard Shaw
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