Monday, 28 July 2025

Tariff Friday Or TACO Friday? An USA-EU Tariff Deal. US-China Trade Talks.

Baltic Dry Index. 2257 -01            Brent Crude 68.79

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Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance.

George Bernard Shaw

To no one’s great surprise,  the USA and EU reached a trade deal yesterday. Well, announced a tariff deal, sort of. Each side had a different spin.

On Friday, August 1st, one sided US tariffs go into effect for most of the rest of the world, unless of course, President TACO delays them yet again.

Far from getting the 90 deals in 90 days, President Trump once boasted of, as far a I can see, President Trump has struck sort of deals with Britain, China, Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines and the EU.

American consumers now face paying higher prices for autos, coffee, orange juice, French and Italian cheese, olive oil, German cars and wines, imported steel and aluminium, toys, drugs and just about everything else imported into the USA.

A Great Global Economic Disruption now lies ahead.

Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed as investors await details of U.S-China talks

Updated Mon, Jul 28 2025 12:28 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Monday, with investors awaiting more details of the trade talks between the U.S. and China, which were set to kick off in Stockholm later in the day.

The talks will be led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. Bessent said on Fox Business that he expects a trade-truce extension during the negotiations, which he added will include a broader range of topics, such as Beijing’s oil purchases from Russia and Iran.

The U.S.-China talks followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement that the U.S. had reached an agreement with the European Union  on Sunday stateside.

The president had previously threatened 30% tariffs on most imported goods from the U.S.’s largest trading partner.

Here are today’s highlights:

Indian stocks fall in early trade

Indian stocks fell in early trade Monday.

The 50-stock benchmark Nifty 50 was down 0.21% while the BSE Sensex index lost 0.22% as of 9.30 a.m. Indian Standard time (12 a.m. ET).

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Asia stock markets today: live updates

US and EU reach tariff agreement to avert trade war

Deal follows Scotland talks between Donald Trump and European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen

27 July 2025

The US and EU have struck a tariff deal that will avert a transatlantic trade war between the two sides but still impose American tariffs of 15 per cent on most imports from the bloc.

As part of the deal the EU has agreed to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on US energy products and weapons, and accepted a broad 15 per cent levy that covers many key European exports, including cars.

The agreement was struck following a meeting on Sunday between US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at his Turnberry golf resort in Scotland.

The deal marks a victory for Trump, who has spent months forcing America’s trading partners into bruising negotiations by threatening steep tariffs, although the terms are in line with what Brussels had told EU member states to prepare for.

“This is probably the biggest deal ever reached in any capacity, trade or beyond trade,” Trump said as he announced the agreement.

 “Today’s deal creates certainty in uncertain times . . . for citizens and businesses on both sides of the Atlantic,” von der Leyen said, adding that the 15 per cent US tariff would apply to European cars, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors — important products for Brussels.

A senior US official later confirmed that European exports of automobiles, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors to the US would all be subject to the 15 per cent tariff.

However, Trump said US levies on steel and aluminium, which he has set at 50 per cent on many countries across the world, would not be cut to 15 per cent for EU products — dashing the hopes of industry in the bloc for an early and low tariff quota.

He said the US would put tariffs of 15 per cent on EU goods, including automobiles, in exchange for the bloc “opening up their countries at zero tariff” to American exports.

He had threatened to impose 30 per cent tariffs on the EU if no deal had been struck by August 1.

Trump said the EU would spend an additional $750bn on US energy products, invest $600bn in America and buy “a vast amount” of his country’s military equipment worth “hundreds of billions of dollars” as part of the deal.

Von der Leyen confirmed the EU would seek to buy $250bn of US energy products each year for the next three years.

“With this deal we are securing access to our largest export market,” she said, while acknowledging that the 15 per cent US tariff would be “a challenge for some” European industries.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz saluted the agreement as “avoiding an unnecessary escalation in transatlantic trade relations”.

He said a trade war “would have hit Germany’s export-oriented economy hard”, highlighting how the German automotive industry would now see US tariffs cut from 27.5 per cent to 15 per cent.

However, Wolfgang Niedermark, board member of the Federation of German Industries trade body, called the agreement “an inadequate compromise”, with the EU “accepting painful tariffs”.

A 15 per cent US tariff rate “will have a huge negative impact on Germany’s export-oriented industry”, he said.

Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who had urged restraint to avert an escalatory trade war, welcomed the deal.

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US and EU reach tariff agreement to avert trade war

U.S. and China to resume tariff talks on Monday in effort to extend truce

Published Sun, Jul 27 2025 4:23 PM EDT

Senior U.S. and Chinese negotiators meet in Stockholm on Monday to tackle longstanding economic disputes at the center of the countries’ trade war, aiming to extend a truce keeping sharply higher tariffs at bay.

China is facing an Aug. 12 deadline to reach a durable tariff agreement with President Donald Trump’s administration, after Beijing and Washington reached a preliminary deal in June to end weeks of escalating tit-for-tat tariffs.

Without an agreement, global supply chains could face renewed turmoil from duties exceeding 100%.

The Stockholm talks, led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, take place a day after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met Trump at his golf course in Scotland to clinch a deal that would see a 15% baseline tariff on most EU goods.

Trade analysts on both sides of the Pacific say the discussions in the Swedish capital are unlikely to produce any breakthroughs but could prevent further escalation and help create conditions for Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to meet later this year.

Previous U.S.-China trade talks in Geneva and London in May and June focused on bringing U.S. and Chinese retaliatory tariffs down from triple-digit levels and restoring the flow of rare earth minerals halted by China and Nvidia H20 AI chips and other goods halted by the United States.

So far, the talks have not delved into broader economic issues. They include U.S. complaints that China’s state-led, export-driven model is flooding world markets with cheap goods, and Beijing’s complaints that U.S. national security export controls on tech goods seek to stunt Chinese growth.

“Stockholm will be the first meaningful round of U.S.-China trade talks,” said Bo Zhengyuan, Shanghai-based partner at China consultancy firm Plenum.

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U.S. China trade tariff talks

What the prediction markets are saying about the big Wall Street events ahead

Published Fri, Jul 25 20253:08 PM EDT

The coming week poses a critical test for the stock market’s record-setting run with a number of make-or-break events — the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, July jobs report and President Donald Trump’s tariffs deadline.

Popular wagers on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket offer an alternative view into how the mainstream thinks things will unfold next week. These markets became established in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election and have been widely used by investors and even Wall Street strategists to gauge the consensus crowd view of a certain event.

The S&P 500 has rebounded more than 30% off its low on April 7, reaching consecutive record highs this week after the benchmark closed above 6,300 for the first time. Investors have cheered resilient economic growth and corporate profits even in the face of higher tariffs. Still, next week marks a wild card that could easily derail the bull run.

Fed meeting

Consistent with the pricing in the futures markets, prediction platform Kalshi is assigning virtually no chance for a rate cut when the Fed meets next week.

But the prediction markets do anticipate some drama during the Fed meeting with Powell perhaps losing his grip on the consensus of his peers.

Kalshi is pricing in a 82% chance of a dissenting vote against a no-cut decision. Notably, Fed Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller have said they would favor a rate cut in July so long as inflation pressures stay muted. So they could be the two that emerge.

Fed Chairman Powell and his fellow policymakers have been reluctant to lower rates as they wait to see the impact that Trump’s tariffs have on inflation. Powell has also argued that the economy is strong enough that it can withstand higher rates as officials watch how the data evolves.

----Jobs report

July jobs report next Friday will offer a fresh look at the health of the labor market that has been resilient in the face of Trump’s tariffs.

Kalshi traders expect a solid jobs report in the Goldilocks range. Kalshi is pricing in a 79% chance that the payroll number will be higher than 100,000, but just an 18% chance that it will be higher than 150,000. The jobless rate has been assigned a 55% likelihood to be above 4.1%.

For context, economists polled by FactSet expect that the U.S. economy will have added 115,000 jobs in July, down from 147,000 in June. The unemployment rate is expected to have edged up to 4.2% from 4.1% previously. 

Aug. 1 tariff deadline 

The world is bracing for more erratic trade headlines as the Aug. 1 deadline approaches. Trump said Friday there is a 50-50 chance that the U.S. would reach a trade agreement with the European Union.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen posted on X later Friday that she and Trump have agreed to meet in Scotland on Sunday to discuss trade. The EU is preparing countermeasures in case of a no-deal scenario. The prediction market is pricing in a 53% likelihood of a deal with the EU.

As for China, which faces an Aug. 12 deadline to reach a deal, Polymarket assigns an 83% chance that the two countries will come to an agreement.

What the prediction markets are saying about the big Wall Street events ahead

Trump’s trade deals and tariffs are on the chopping block in court. What happens next

Published Sat, Jul 26 2025 8:00 AM EDT Updated Sat, Jul 26 2025 3:51 PM EDT

President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff powers and recent trade deals could soon run into a legal buzzsaw.

A federal appeals court is set to hear oral arguments next week in a high-profile lawsuit challenging Trump’s stated authority to effectively slap tariffs at any level on any country at any time, so long as he deems them necessary to address a national emergency.

The Trump administration says that that expansive tariff power derives from the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA.

The bulk of Trump’s biggest tariffs — including his fentanyl-related duties on Canada, Mexico and China, and the worldwide “reciprocal” tariffs he first unveiled in early April — rest on his invocation of that law.

The U.S. Court of International Trade struck those tariffs down in late May, ruling that Trump exceeded his authority under IEEPA.

But the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit quickly paused that decision, keeping the tariffs in effect while Trump’s legal challenge plays out.

The case, known as V.O.S. Selections v. Trump, is the furthest along of more than half a dozen federal lawsuits challenging Trump’s use of the emergency-powers law.

It’s set for oral argument before the Federal Circuit on Thursday morning.

“I think the tariffs are at risk,” said Ted Murphy, partner and head of global trade practice at law firm Sidley Austin, in an interview with CNBC.

The law has “never been used for this purpose,” and it’s “being used quite broadly,” Murphy said. “So I think there are legitimate questions.”

V.O.S.

IEEPA gives Trump some powers to deal with national emergencies stemming from “any unusual and extraordinary threat” that comes in whole or in large part from outside the U.S.

But attorneys representing the handful of small businesses that sued Trump argue that the law does not let him unilaterally impose tariffs.

“IEEPA nowhere mentions tariffs, duties, imposts, or taxes, and no other President in the statute’s nearly 50-year history has claimed that it authorizes tariffs,” they wrote in a court brief this month.

Attorneys for Trump and his administration, however, argue that Congress has long empowered presidents to impose tariffs to address key national concerns.

They argue that the statute’s language authorizing Trump to “regulate … importation” means he can use it to impose tariffs.

Supreme Court incoming

No matter how the Federal Circuit ultimately rules in V.O.S., the case appears destined for the Supreme Court, which bears a 6-3 conservative majority and includes three justices appointed by Trump.

But some experts still expect that Trump’s IEEPA tariffs will be scrapped.

“Trump will probably continue to lose in the lower courts, and we believe the Supreme Court is highly unlikely to rule in his favor,” U.S. policy analysts from Piper Sandler wrote in a research note Friday morning.

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Trump's trade deals, tariffs face key test in court next week

In other news, despite all the froth in the stock casinos, is money getting tight all around? What happens, if it is, with tariffs still largely to hit?

Auction sales fall 6% in the first half, raising fears of an art market shift

Published Fri, Jul 25 2025 10:53 AM EDT

Auction sales have been declining for the third year in a row, as dealers, auctioneers and collectors ponder a deeper crisis in the art market.

Auction sales for the first half of the year at Sotheby’s, Christie’s and Phillips fell to $3.98 billion, a drop of 6% compared with the same period in 2024, according to ArtTactic. The auction total is the lowest in at least a decade (setting aside the 2020 pandemic) and is now down 44% — or more than $3 billion — from 2022. The declines follow a 19% drop in 2023 and 26% decline in 2024.

Postwar and contemporary art, which has been the main engine of growth for art auctions in recent decades, fell by an even greater 19% in the first half, according to ArtTactic.

“Lingering concerns over global economic growth, ongoing inflation, and rising geopolitical tensions are weighing on confidence and creating a more cautious investment climate,” ArtTactic said. “These factors are likely to challenge the market’s momentum in the second half of the year, as the industry adapts to a still-uncertain global landscape.”

Those lingering concerns, however, aren’t showing up in other areas of the wealth economy. The prosperity of the wealthy is at record levels, with the top 10% of Americans adding $37 trillion to their wealth since Covid, marking a 45% increase. Stock markets were up more than 20% in both 2023 and 2024 and are up again so far in 2025. Housing values and business valuations have also soared, adding to personal wealth.

Yale professor William Goetzmann has studied the relationship between art prices and financial wealth going back over 300 years and found they are “highly correlated.”

“Demand for art increases with the wealth of art collectors,” he wrote in his famous paper “Accounting for Taste, Art and the Financial Markets over Three Centuries.”

With personal wealth at all-time highs, however, Goetzmann said the 300-year correlation is broken. He said there are one of two explanations for the divergence: Either the dip in the art market is a temporary aberration and will bounce back this year or next, or the art market is going through a more structural change.

“The question is, is there some kind of fundamental deviation from the social norm of the very wealthy being highly involved in collecting art at the highest prices and levels,” he said. “We don’t know yet.”

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Auction sales fall 6% in the first half, raising fears for art market

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Trump’s Tariff Blitz Sparks Global Trade Tensions and Economic Uncertainty

27 July 2025

U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, announced in a series of letters to global trading partners, are sending shockwaves through the world economy.

With proposed tariffs of 30% on imports from the European Union and Mexico, a staggering 50% on Brazil for political reasons, and 25% on Japan, the U.S. is escalating a trade war that threatens to disrupt decades of global trade liberalization. These measures, set to take effect on August 1, 2025, are fueling economic uncertainty and prompting dire forecasts, with the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) projecting global growth to slow to 2.3% in 2025—the weakest in 17 years outside of recession periods. As nations brace for retaliatory measures and markets reel, Trump’s tariff strategy is reshaping global trade dynamics with far-reaching consequences.

A Wave of Tariffs Targets Key Trading Partners

President Trump’s latest tariff announcements, detailed in letters posted to his Truth Social platform, target some of the U.S.’s largest trading partners. The 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico, two of the U.S.’s top trade partners, aim to address what Trump calls “unfair” trade deficits. In 2024, the U.S. trade deficit with the EU was $235.6 billion, while Mexico’s trade surplus with the U.S. has long been a point of contention. Trump’s letter to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum also cited the flow of fentanyl across the border as a justification, though critics argue the tariffs are more about economic leverage than drug enforcement.

Brazil faces an even steeper 50% tariff, a move Trump explicitly linked to the political prosecution of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, a close ally. This politicization of trade policy has raised eyebrows, with analysts warning that it sets a dangerous precedent for using tariffs as a tool for geopolitical score-settling. Japan, a key U.S. ally, was slapped with a 25% tariff, particularly impacting its automotive sector, which accounts for 20% of its exports to the U.S. The Nikkei 225 plummeted 7.8% on April 7, 2025, following an earlier tariff announcement, underscoring the economic toll on export-heavy economies.

These tariffs build on a broader strategy that began in April 2025, when Trump imposed a 10% global tariff and higher rates on 57 countries, raising the average U.S. tariff rate from 2.5% to an estimated 27%—the highest in over a century. Sector-specific levies, including 50% on steel and aluminum and 25% on autos, have further amplified the impact. The White House argues that these measures will boost domestic manufacturing and generate $100 billion in tax revenue, but critics warn of higher consumer prices and global retaliation.

Global Economic Fallout and Recession Fears

The OECD’s forecast of 2.3% global growth in 2025 reflects the mounting economic strain from Trump’s tariffs. The organization slashed its projections from 3.3% in December 2024, citing “higher trade barriers” and “increased geopolitical and policy uncertainty” as key drivers. The U.S. economy is expected to grow at just 2.2% in 2025, down from 2.4%, while Canada’s growth was cut to 0.7% and Mexico’s to a contraction of 1.3%. J.P. Morgan now estimates a 60% chance of a global recession by year-end, up from 40%, as markets grapple with the fallout.

Consumers are already feeling the pinch. The Penn Wharton Budget Model projects that Trump’s tariffs will raise $5.2 trillion in revenue over 10 years but reduce U.S. GDP by 8% and wages by 7%, with the average household facing a $58,000 lifetime loss. Higher prices for imported goods, from cars to canned food, are expected to add $1,300 annually to household costs in 2025 alone. For example, economist Arthur Laffer estimates that the 25% auto tariff could increase new car prices by $4,711, hitting consumers and industries reliant on imported parts.

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Trump’s Tariff Blitz Sparks Global Trade Tensions and Economic Uncertainty

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

Why do COVID-19 cases rise every summer? CDC reports surge in Texas, 9 other states

July 25, 2025

The seasonal surge in COVID-19 cases has arrived, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports an increase in activity in the majority of states.

As the U.S. approaches the midpoint of summer, the CDC is reporting cases of the virus are growing or likely to grow in 26 states, including Texas. A July 18 report used data from emergency department visits in its epidemic trend modeling. This modeling reflects trends in overall cases, not the actual numbers.

COVID summer 2025 surge: Why do cases rise every summer?

The rate of positive COVID-19 tests is increasing nationally, the CDC said, based on data from the last week, with emergency department visits for the virus increasing among children 4 years old and younger.

Although there is an uptick in COVID-19 cases in more than two dozen states, the CDC reports that the overall number of people seeking care for acute respiratory illnesses remains at a very low level. That's accompanied by low levels of seasonal influenza activity and very low levels of RSV activity, the CDC says.

Overall, trends in COVID-19 cases continue downward as compared to the last few years, according to long-term data trends in deaths, emergency room visits and positive cases.

The U.S. has experienced a surge in COVID-19 cases every summer since 2020. The CDC attributes the July and August increases to a variety of virological, behavioral and environmental factors. For one, most get annual vaccinations in the fall, so by late summer, those individuals' immunity "has waned considerably." Infection also becomes more likely as more transmissible variants emerge.

The summer heat drives people indoors to air-conditioned spaces, where restrictions on ventilation and air circulation enable the virus to spread more easily. Travel also peaks in the summer, and this year's season has proven particularly popular with travelers, as demonstrated by record-breaking numbers over the Memorial Day and Independence Day. The CDC warns that in addition to the higher rates of exposure related to travel, those who partake "may be more likely to write off mild symptoms as simply the result of jet lag, not illness."

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Why do COVID-19 cases rise every summer? CDC reports surge in Texas, 9 other states

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

HydroGraph launches Compounding Partner Program to expand graphene-enhanced thermoplastics

Through the establishment of a qualified network of partners, HydroGraph is building commercial availability of unreinforced and reinforced thermoplastic compounds that incorporate its Fractal Graphene material.

Published 07/25/2025

HydroGraph Clean Power Inc. (Vancouver, BC, Canada), producer of high-purity graphene, has announced the launch of the Compounding Partner Program aimed at accelerating the adoption of its high-performance Fractal Graphene in unreinforced and fiber-reinforced thermoplastics.

The initiative establishes a qualified network of plastic compounders with demonstrated expertise in processing graphene-enhanced thermoplastic materials, with early partners already piloting new formulations across automotive and packaging sectors. Participants in the program will undergo a qualification process to ensure adherence to performance, quality and consistency benchmarks defined by HydroGraph’s technical lab.

“Establishing a select network of certified compounders enables HydroGraph to ensure consistent processing of Fractal Graphene at commercial scale,” says Kjirstin Breure, president and CEO of HydroGraph. “This initiative provides end customers with a vetted supply chain for sourcing graphene-enhanced compounds with confidence.”

Qualified partners will receive technical support, knowledge transfer and business referrals for commercial opportunities. The program is designed for compounders with advanced material capabilities, strong quality control systems and a track record in innovative product development.

Fractal Graphene is a turbostratic graphene material manufactured using HydroGraph’s patented detonation synthesis technology. Characterized by its 99.8% carbon purity and consistent morphology, the material’s fractal structure enables performance at addition rates 10 to 100 times lower than conventional graphene nanoplatelets, offering potential reductions in material use, cost and environmental impact. Unlike traditional forms of graphene, which often require high loadings that may affect processability or material properties, Fractal Graphene achieves mechanical and electrical enhancements at ultra-low concentrations. HydroGraph’s production method is designed to operate with low energy and carbon intensity compared to traditional manufacturing approaches.

HydroGraph’s certified compounding partners will support customers across industries seeking lighter, stronger and more sustainable materials, including automotive, construction, packaging, agriculture and textiles.

Plastic compounders interested in joining HydroGraph’s Compounding Partner Program can contact the company at partners@hydrograph.com.

HydroGraph launches Compounding Partner Program to expand graphene-enhanced thermoplastics | CompositesWorld

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

The longer I live, the more convinced am I that this planet is used by other planets as a lunatic asylum.

George Bernard Shaw

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