Baltic
Dry Index. 2226 -31
Brent Crude 69.96
Spot Gold 3314 US 2 Year Yield 3.91 unch.
US Federal Debt. 37.162 trillion
US GDP 30.165 trillion.
Neither side published the text
of their agreement on Sunday. Although both presidents said that the EU’s
baseline tariff would be 15%, they appeared to have different interpretations
of some of the details.
Trump and EU Reach
Tariff Deal, Avoiding Trade War - WSJ
In the stock casinos, that US-EU tariff “deal” underwhelmed.
On to day two of those USA v China trade talks in Stockholm Sweden.
Tomorrow, Fed Chairman Powell gets to set out the US central bank’s take on all the Trump tariff deals so far.
Tomorrow or just possibly Thursday, the US Federal debt will exceed the US GDP by 7 trillion, that's 7 followed by 12 zeros; and the US economy is not in recession nor the country at war. A good time to take advantage of gold's recent price dip.
On Thursday, the PCE, the Fed’s preferred US inflation measure.
On Friday, the latest US jobs data.
All in all, something of a 50:50 week for the major stock casinos.
Asia-Pacific markets fall as traders await outcome
of U.S.-China trade talks
Updated Tue, Jul 29 2025 11:20 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets fell Tuesday as
investors awaited the outcome of the ongoing U.S.-China trade talks.
Investors also look ahead to the result of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting due
Wednesday stateside, where it will make a decision on whether to cut interest
rates.
Asia markets start Tuesday trading in the
red
Asia markets started the trading day
lower.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 fell 0.61%, while
the Topix lost 0.76%.
South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.09%, and the
small-cap Kosdaq slipped 0.88%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.42%.
—Lee Ying Shan
Asia
markets live: Federal Reserve, Australia CPI
Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500
ekes out another closing record: Live updates
Updated Tue, Jul 29 2025 7:34 PM EDT
Stock futures were relatively unchanged on
Monday on the heels of the S&P
500 and Nasdaq
Composite eking out yet another record despite a market rally failing
to materialize.
S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures gained
roughly 0.1%. Futures tied to
the Dow Jones Industrial Average added just 6 points.
The moves come after the S&P 500 and
the Nasdaq Composite hit new all-time and closing highs during Monday’s trading
session, just barely seeing gains. It was the 15th record close for the broad
market index in 2025. The S&P 500 ultimately finished the day just above
the flatline, while the 30-stock Dow ticked down by 0.1%. The
Nasdaq ended 0.3% higher, by contrast.
The broad market index’s initial moderate
gains earlier in the day followed President Donald Trump’s announcement Sunday
that the U.S.
has struck a trade deal with the European Union, an agreement that will
impose 15% tariffs on most goods imported from Europe, including automobiles.
The president also said Monday that the baseline global tariff rate will be “in the
range of 15 to 20%.”
While investors effectively looked past
the U.S.-EU trade deal, they will be watching for any other potential deals
between the U.S. and other countries, such as China, to be announced by
Friday’s tariff deadline. Top U.S. and Chinese officials met in
Stockholm Monday for another round of trade talks.
Tariffs and inflation will remain a focal
point throughout the week in other areas as well. The Federal Reserve is set to
offer its decision on interest rates Wednesday following its two-day policy
meeting. Central bank policymakers are widely expected to keep rates steady at
a range of 4.25% to 4.5%.
This week also marks the busiest week of
earnings season, with more than 150 S&P 500 companies due to report. That
includes several “Magnificent Seven” companies, namely Meta Platforms and Microsoft slated for
Wednesday as well as Amazon and Apple for Thursday.
Additionally, UPS, Procter & Gamble, Merck and Boeing are among several names
reporting before the bell Tuesday.
“If we get no surprises in earnings and
some dovish comments by the Fed, it’s likely we’ll see yet more new highs by
the end of the week,” Louis Navellier, founder and chief investment officer at
Navellier & Associates, said in a recent note.
As it stands, 170 S&P 500 companies
have reported their quarterly results, and more than 83% have beaten
expectations, according to FactSet data.
It’s a big week for data, with the Job
Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) due Tuesday, the ADP private
payrolls report Wednesday and weekly jobless claims Thursday.
July’s nonfarm payrolls due Friday will be
a key event for traders. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect the report to
show 100,000 jobs added in July, less than the 147,000 added in June. The
unemployment rate is anticipated to rise slightly to 4.2% from 4.1%.
Stock
market today: Live updates
CNBC Daily Open: Markets are already looking past
U.S.-EU trade deal and need another catalyst
Published Mon, Jul 28 2025 9:03 PM EDT
Stock markets in the U.S. and Europe
didn’t seem that delighted with the U.S.-European Union trade
deal reached over the weekend.
The S&P 500 ticked up, but by the
barest margin, while the Stoxx 600 Europe fell. Both indexes were trading
higher during their respective sessions but had given up those gains as the day
ended.
For those on the continent, perhaps it was
a dawning realization that the agreement wasn’t too much in their favor. German
Chancellor Friedrich Merz and France’s minister for Europe, Benjamin Haddad,
expressed a desire for more
open trade.
With U.S. President Donald Trump announcing Monday
that he would probably impose a blanket tariff of between 15% and 20% on
countries without trade agreements, it’s starting to seem like most duties will
settle around that level eventually, easing some uncertainty.
What’s more, economists appear to be
revising downward their expectations of the impact
tariffs will have on the U.S. economy — so any deals in the future
might not trigger rallies, or strong ones at least, on Wall Street.
Tariff considerations, then, are on the
backburner for now. Investors can turn their attention to Magnificent Seven
earnings: Meta Platforms and Microsoft will be releasing
results on Wednesday. If all goes well, they might give markets the cheer that
was missing on Monday.
What you need to know today
Global baseline tariff of between 15% and 20%. For countries that
have not negotiated separate trade agreements with the U.S., Trump said he
would likely impose that blanket
tariff rate on their exports. But Wall Street doesn’t seem as frightened
of tariffs anymore.
Less than two weeks for Russia to reach a
peace deal with Ukraine. That’s the new deadline Trump issued to
Moscow — if Russia fails to meet it, the U.S. president will implement
massive ’secondary
tariffs” on the country’s trade partners, Trump said.
Europe isn’t that pleased with its U.S.
trade deal. The
agreement, which imposes a 15% tariff on most European Union goods exported to
the U.S., has been criticized by European leaders and analysts as
“asymmetric” and “unbalanced.”
Markets have a muted response to EU deal. On Monday,
the S&P 500 closed
near the flatline, down from a 0.2% increase during its session high. The
pan-European Stoxx 600 index lost
0.22%, erasing
earlier gains.
More
CNBC
Daily Open: Markets are already looking past U.S.-EU trade deal
XAU/USD outlook: Gold falls to three-week low as
dollar benefits from US-EU trade deal
07/28/2025 15:52:35 GMT
Gold continues to trend lower and extends
drop from last week’s top ($3438) into fourth straight day on Monday.
The metal’s price fell to the lowest in
three weeks after US-EU trade agreement further lifted dollar, pushing gold
through key supports at $3340 (daily cloud top) and $3330 (triangle support
line), with fresh acceleration hitting levels just ticks ahead of psychological
$3300 support.
Bears faced headwinds here (oversold
conditions) but expected to remain in play if gold closes
within the cloud and below triangle’s lower boundary today.
Fresh weakness pushed the price into the
lower side of broader consolidation under new record high ($3500/$3120 range),
but verification of new negative signal would require violation of $3300 (near
the mid-point of the range) and cloud base ($3285) that would also avoid
scenario of a false break out of triangle (last week’s short-lived violation of
an upper triangle boundary).
The structure on daily chart weakened
(MA’s turned to bearish setup, but 14-d momentum hovers at the centreline).
Focus shifts on Fed’s policy decision (due
later this week) that would provide fresh direction signals.
XAU/USD
outlook: Gold falls to three-week low as dollar benefits from US-EU trade deal
In other news, about that USA-EU trade
“deal”. The ever excellent website MishTalk sums up the reality.
Can Ursula Sign a Deal for the EU?
The answer is no.
She is the chief negotiator. Then what?
- Negotiation: The
European Commission, through the Trade Commissioner, then leads the
negotiations with the partner country.
- Council
Approval for Signing: After the negotiations are completed and an
agreement is reached, the Commission submits the proposal to the Council
of the EU, which must adopt a decision authorizing the signing of the
agreement.
- European
Parliament Consent: The signed agreement is then sent to the European
Parliament for its consent. The Parliament has the power to approve or
reject the agreement, but it cannot amend it.
- Final
Conclusion: Only after the European Parliament has given its consent
can the Council adopt the final decision to formally conclude the
agreement.
- Ratification (for “Mixed” Agreements): In some cases, where the trade agreement covers areas of shared competence between the EU and its member states, the agreement also needs to be ratified by the national parliaments of each EU member state before it can be fully implemented.
There Is No Deal
Ultimately European Parliament will have
the final say. And in some issues national governments have a say as well.
More
Trump Announces a
15 Percent Tariff Deal With the EU But There Is No Deal – MishTalk
EU Defends Trade Deal Amid Mounting Criticism
July 28, 2025 at 10:49 PM GMT+1
European leaders on Monday sought to defend their
trade deal with President Donald Trump, an accord that will
see the European Union accepting a 15% tariff on most of its exports to
the US while reducing levies on some American products to zero.
Industry officials in Germany have warned
that the deal leaves the auto industry exposed and will
make companies in Europe less competitive. “The agreement is an inadequate
compromise and sends a disastrous signal to the closely intertwined economies
on both sides of the Atlantic,” said Wolfgang Niedermark, a member of the
executive board of Germany’s BDI industry federation.
European Commission President Ursula
von der Leyen hailed the agreement, arguing it will offer stability and
predictability to businesses and consumers. Von der Leyen urged critics to “not
forget where we came from,” referencing tariff rates Trump threatened that were
as high as 50%.
Wall Street appeared to be aware of
the dodged bullet argument, kicking
off a pivotal week with record highs and a dollar that
climbed the most since May. The euro meanwhile slid the most in more than two
months. The S&P 500 briefly topped 6,400 and Treasuries barely
budged amid mixed results from US debt sales. Here’s
your markets wrap. —Natasha
Solo-Lyons
EU
Defends Trade Deal Amid Mounting Business Criticism: Evening Briefing -
Bloomberg
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Federal
Reserve likely to hold interest rates steady despite pressure from Trump.
Here's what that means for your money
Published
July 25, 2025 • Updated on July 25,
2025 at 6:39 am
·
Despite
escalating political pressure from President Donald Trump, the Federal Reserve
is widely expected to hold its benchmark short-term borrowing rate steady at
its meeting next week.
·
All
sorts of consumer borrowing costs are impacted by the what the central bank
decides.
·
From
mortgage rates and auto loans to credit cards and savings accounts, here's
a look at how the Fed affects your finances.
Ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting, relations between
President Donald Trump and Fed
Chair Jerome Powell have hit
a low.
"Families are being hurt
because Interest Rates are too high," Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Wednesday.
Trump has said he wants the Fed to
sharply lower interest rates by as much as 3 percentage points to spur economic
growth. (Although the central bank typically adjusts its benchmark in 25-basis-point
increments, rates were slashed to near zero as recently as the Covid
pandemic. "The Fed only resorts to such extreme measures in response to
severe economic distress," said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at
Bankrate.)
The president has argued that maintaining a federal
funds rate that is too high makes it harder for businesses and consumers to
borrow and puts the U.S. at an economic disadvantage to countries with lower
rates.
The Fed's benchmark sets what
banks charge each other for overnight lending, but also has a trickle-down
effect on almost all of the borrowing and savings rates Americans see every
day.
Powell
said earlier this month that the Fed likely would have cut
rates by now,
but that it has held off due to the uncertainty and inflation risks posed by
Trump's tariff agenda. Many economists say that the full impact from tariffs on
pricing has only just started to be felt, and inflation could pick up in the
second half of the year.
Since
December, the federal funds rate has remained steady in a target range of 4.25%
to 4.5%. Futures market pricing is implying almost no chance of an
interest rate cut when the Fed meets next week, according to the CME
Group's FedWatch gauge.
Market pricing indicates the Fed is much more likely to consider a rate cut in
September.
Once
the fed funds rate comes down, consumers could see their borrowing costs start to fall as
well.
However,
"there is no guarantee this would translate into lower rates," said
Brett House, an economics professor at Columbia Business School — "largely
because many types of borrowing, mortgage rates specifically, are not
benchmarked off the Fed."
From
mortgage rates and auto loans to credit cards and savings accounts, here's
a look at how the Fed affects your finances.
More
The
Bull Market for Economists Is Over. It’s an Ominous Sign for the Economy.
Earning
a Ph.D. in economics has long been a reliable path to affluence and prestige.
Not anymore.
July
28, 2025
The
moment it dawned on Thomas Fullagar that his job search was not going well came
in April, about six months into the process, when he applied for a position in
Manhattan, Kan.
The
job, at a technology company called CivicPlus, involved relatively
straightforward data analysis that he wouldn’t strain to do. In fact, he had
done much more complicated work while completing
his Ph.D. in economics at the University of California, Santa Barbara.
Further improving his odds, he had grown up in Manhattan, the home of Kansas
State University, and his mother knew someone at the company, who helped
fast-track his application.
Yet
despite his connections and credentials, he did not get the job. He didn’t even
get a second interview. “It was in Manhattan, Kansas — who the heck is applying
for this?” Dr. Fullagar, 33, wondered. “That one was really baffling.”
For
decades, earning a Ph.D. in economics has been a nearly foolproof path to a
lucrative career. Even as bearers of advanced degrees in history, English or
anthropology struggled to
find gainful employment, the popularity of economics as an undergraduate major
created plenty of tenure-track teaching positions, while government agencies
snatched up Ph.D. economists in bulk. Those looking for even larger paychecks
could turn to tech companies, Wall Street and consulting firms, which bid up
the price of economists as if they were a bespoke cryptocurrency.
Last
year, the average base salary for newly hired economics professors at major
research universities was more than $150,000, according
to the American Economic Association, and their compensation swelled to
about $200,000 once bonuses and summer teaching were included. As recently as
the 2023-24 academic year, the employment rate for Ph.D. economists within a
few months of graduation was 100 percent, said John Cawley, the chair of the association’s Committee
on the Job Market, citing the group’s surveys. Job satisfaction topped 85
percent.
Those
glory days seem to be ending. Universities and nonprofits have scaled back
hiring amid declining state budgets and federal
funding cuts. At the same time, the Trump administration has laid off
government economists and frozen hiring for new ones.
More
Economists
Are Struggling to Find Jobs. It’s an Ominous Sign for The Economy. - The New
York Times
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
The growing threat of battery fires from e-scooters and e-bikes
27 July 2025
Firefighters face growing challenges
presented by electric vehicles and need new training and equipment, the leader of the Fire Brigades Union (FBU) has said.
Steve Wright, who took over as general
secretary of the FBU earlier this year, said illegally modified e-bikes and scooters were a particular concern.
The Office for Product Safety recently reported that there were at least
211 e-scooter and e-bike fires last year, including five that caused
fatalities. The figure in 2020 was 26.
Natasha Johnson-Mall, 27, and her
partner, Karlo Bogdan, 24, died in an e-bike fire last November. Their two dogs
also perished in the blaze at their Coventry home, caused when a battery Karlo
had installed on the e-bike burst into flames.
The West Midlands Fire Service reported
that the fire began when the battery caught fire and “rapidly escalated into an
intense blaze”.
“The battery that we believe Karlo had
purchased was subject to a product recall before he purchased it due to… other
fires that have happened nationally,” said fire investigation officer Annette
Carrington. “It’s obvious that this risk was unknown to Karlo.”
The unique dangers of lithium-ion battery fires
Most of the e-bike and e-scooter fires reported last year were in London, and the
true national total is certain to be higher since it is based on voluntary
reporting by regional brigades.
“It seems like a lot of people are
buying scooters cheaper, and actually they are not regulated, and then they are
storing them in high-rise blocks of flats,” FBU leader Wright told The
i Paper.
The fire brigade union chief said
traditional methods were ineffective against lithium-ion battery fires and that
further research – and new equipment and training – was needed.
“I think our equipment needs to keep
pace with the advances in technology. So also the training of firefighters
that’s been cut over the years,” he said.
“Cars are more advanced, and lithium-ion
battery risks are going up. There is no way of extinguishing a lithium-ion
battery in a motor vehicle. Water will not put that out.”
Why are lithium-ion battery fires so dangerous?
Lithium-ion battery fires are
challenging to extinguish due to their unique characteristics.
Internal chemical reactions within them
can sustain combustion even without external oxygen, as the battery itself
generates oxygen during thermal runaway.
This process, where heat triggers
further heat-generating reactions, can lead to rapid temperature increases,
potentially causing explosions or the release of flammable gases, such as
hydrogen, methane, and ethylene.
These gases can ignite, intensifying the
fire, while toxic emissions like carbon monoxide, hydrogen fluoride, and
hydrogen chloride pose health risks.
These elements make lithium-ion battery
fires more hazardous and difficult to manage compared to fires fuelled by
conventional materials.
More
The growing threat of battery fires from e-scooters and e-bikes
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Trump
indicated in comments to the press that his global steel-and-aluminum tariffs,
which are currently at 50%, would remain unchanged. Von der Leyen said the two
had agreed to a quota system that would keep tariffs lower for some EU metals
exports to the U.S.
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