Tuesday, 29 July 2025

US-China Trade Talks Day 2. About That US-EU “Deal”. Gold Dips.

Baltic Dry Index. 2226 -31            Brent Crude 69.96

Spot Gold 3314                  US 2 Year Yield 3.91 unch.

US Federal Debt. 37.162 trillion

US GDP 30.165 trillion.

Neither side published the text of their agreement on Sunday. Although both presidents said that the EU’s baseline tariff would be 15%, they appeared to have different interpretations of some of the details.

Trump and EU Reach Tariff Deal, Avoiding Trade War - WSJ

In the stock casinos, that US-EU tariff “deal” underwhelmed.

On to day two of those USA v China trade talks in Stockholm Sweden.

Tomorrow, Fed Chairman Powell gets to set out the US central bank’s take on all the Trump tariff deals so far.

Tomorrow or just possibly Thursday, the US Federal debt will exceed the US GDP by 7 trillion, that's 7 followed by 12 zeros; and the US economy is not in recession nor the country at war. A good time to take advantage of gold's recent price dip.

On Thursday, the PCE, the Fed’s preferred US inflation measure.

On Friday, the latest US jobs data.

All in all, something of a 50:50 week for the major stock casinos.

Asia-Pacific markets fall as traders await outcome of U.S.-China trade talks

Updated Tue, Jul 29 2025 11:20 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets fell Tuesday as investors awaited the outcome of the ongoing U.S.-China trade talks.
Investors also look ahead to the result of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting due Wednesday stateside, where it will make a decision on whether to cut interest rates.

Asia markets start Tuesday trading in the red

Asia markets started the trading day lower.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 fell 0.61%, while the Topix lost 0.76%.

South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.09%, and the small-cap Kosdaq slipped 0.88%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.42%.

—Lee Ying Shan

Asia markets live: Federal Reserve, Australia CPI

Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500 ekes out another closing record: Live updates

Updated Tue, Jul 29 2025 7:34 PM EDT

Stock futures were relatively unchanged on Monday on the heels of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite eking out yet another record despite a market rally failing to materialize.

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures gained roughly 0.1%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added just 6 points.

The moves come after the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite hit new all-time and closing highs during Monday’s trading session, just barely seeing gains. It was the 15th record close for the broad market index in 2025. The S&P 500 ultimately finished the day just above the flatline, while the 30-stock Dow ticked down by 0.1%. The Nasdaq ended 0.3% higher, by contrast.

The broad market index’s initial moderate gains earlier in the day followed President Donald Trump’s announcement Sunday that the U.S. has struck a trade deal with the European Union, an agreement that will impose 15% tariffs on most goods imported from Europe, including automobiles. The president also said Monday that the baseline global tariff rate will be “in the range of 15 to 20%.”

While investors effectively looked past the U.S.-EU trade deal, they will be watching for any other potential deals between the U.S. and other countries, such as China, to be announced by Friday’s tariff deadline. Top U.S. and Chinese officials met in Stockholm Monday for another round of trade talks.

Tariffs and inflation will remain a focal point throughout the week in other areas as well. The Federal Reserve is set to offer its decision on interest rates Wednesday following its two-day policy meeting. Central bank policymakers are widely expected to keep rates steady at a range of 4.25% to 4.5%.

This week also marks the busiest week of earnings season, with more than 150 S&P 500 companies due to report. That includes several “Magnificent Seven” companies, namely Meta Platforms and Microsoft slated for Wednesday as well as Amazon and Apple for Thursday. Additionally, UPSProcter & GambleMerck and Boeing are among several names reporting before the bell Tuesday.

“If we get no surprises in earnings and some dovish comments by the Fed, it’s likely we’ll see yet more new highs by the end of the week,” Louis Navellier, founder and chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates, said in a recent note.

As it stands, 170 S&P 500 companies have reported their quarterly results, and more than 83% have beaten expectations, according to FactSet data.

It’s a big week for data, with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) due Tuesday, the ADP private payrolls report Wednesday and weekly jobless claims Thursday.

July’s nonfarm payrolls due Friday will be a key event for traders. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect the report to show 100,000 jobs added in July, less than the 147,000 added in June. The unemployment rate is anticipated to rise slightly to 4.2% from 4.1%.

Stock market today: Live updates

CNBC Daily Open: Markets are already looking past U.S.-EU trade deal and need another catalyst

Published Mon, Jul 28 2025 9:03 PM EDT

Stock markets in the U.S. and Europe didn’t seem that delighted with the U.S.-European Union trade deal reached over the weekend.

The S&P 500 ticked up, but by the barest margin, while the Stoxx 600 Europe fell. Both indexes were trading higher during their respective sessions but had given up those gains as the day ended.

For those on the continent, perhaps it was a dawning realization that the agreement wasn’t too much in their favor. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and France’s minister for Europe, Benjamin Haddad, expressed a desire for more open trade.

With U.S. President Donald Trump announcing Monday that he would probably impose a blanket tariff of between 15% and 20% on countries without trade agreements, it’s starting to seem like most duties will settle around that level eventually, easing some uncertainty.

What’s more, economists appear to be revising downward their expectations of the impact tariffs will have on the U.S. economy — so any deals in the future might not trigger rallies, or strong ones at least, on Wall Street.

Tariff considerations, then, are on the backburner for now. Investors can turn their attention to Magnificent Seven earnings: Meta Platforms and Microsoft will be releasing results on Wednesday. If all goes well, they might give markets the cheer that was missing on Monday.

What you need to know today

Global baseline tariff of between 15% and 20%. For countries that have not negotiated separate trade agreements with the U.S., Trump said he would likely impose that blanket tariff rate on their exports. But Wall Street doesn’t seem as frightened of tariffs anymore.

Less than two weeks for Russia to reach a peace deal with Ukraine. That’s the new deadline Trump issued to Moscow — if Russia fails to meet it, the U.S. president will implement massive ’secondary tariffs” on the country’s trade partners, Trump said.

Europe isn’t that pleased with its U.S. trade deal. The agreement, which imposes a 15% tariff on most European Union goods exported to the U.S., has been criticized by European leaders and analysts as “asymmetric” and “unbalanced.”

Markets have a muted response to EU deal. On Monday, the S&P 500 closed near the flatline, down from a 0.2% increase during its session high. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index lost 0.22%, erasing earlier gains.

More

CNBC Daily Open: Markets are already looking past U.S.-EU trade deal

XAU/USD outlook: Gold falls to three-week low as dollar benefits from US-EU trade deal

 07/28/2025 15:52:35 GMT

Gold continues to trend lower and extends drop from last week’s top ($3438) into fourth straight day on Monday.

The metal’s price fell to the lowest in three weeks after US-EU trade agreement further lifted dollar, pushing gold through key supports at $3340 (daily cloud top) and $3330 (triangle support line), with fresh acceleration hitting levels just ticks ahead of psychological $3300 support.

Bears faced headwinds here (oversold conditions) but expected to remain in play if gold closes within the cloud and below triangle’s lower boundary today.

Fresh weakness pushed the price into the lower side of broader consolidation under new record high ($3500/$3120 range), but verification of new negative signal would require violation of $3300 (near the mid-point of the range) and cloud base ($3285) that would also avoid scenario of a false break out of triangle (last week’s short-lived violation of an upper triangle boundary).

The structure on daily chart weakened (MA’s turned to bearish setup, but 14-d momentum hovers at the centreline).

Focus shifts on Fed’s policy decision (due later this week) that would provide fresh direction signals.

XAU/USD outlook: Gold falls to three-week low as dollar benefits from US-EU trade deal

In other news, about that USA-EU trade “deal”. The ever excellent website MishTalk sums up the reality.

Can Ursula Sign a Deal for the EU?

The answer is no.

She is the chief negotiator. Then what?

  • Negotiation: The European Commission, through the Trade Commissioner, then leads the negotiations with the partner country.
  • Council Approval for Signing: After the negotiations are completed and an agreement is reached, the Commission submits the proposal to the Council of the EU, which must adopt a decision authorizing the signing of the agreement.
  • European Parliament Consent: The signed agreement is then sent to the European Parliament for its consent. The Parliament has the power to approve or reject the agreement, but it cannot amend it.
  • Final Conclusion: Only after the European Parliament has given its consent can the Council adopt the final decision to formally conclude the agreement.
  • Ratification (for “Mixed” Agreements): In some cases, where the trade agreement covers areas of shared competence between the EU and its member states, the agreement also needs to be ratified by the national parliaments of each EU member state before it can be fully implemented

There Is No Deal

Ultimately European Parliament will have the final say. And in some issues national governments have a say as well.

More

Trump Announces a 15 Percent Tariff Deal With the EU But There Is No Deal – MishTalk

EU Defends Trade Deal Amid Mounting Criticism

July 28, 2025 at 10:49 PM GMT+1

European leaders on Monday sought to defend their trade deal with President Donald Trump, an accord that will see the European Union accepting a 15% tariff on most of its exports to the US while reducing levies on some American products to zero.

Industry officials in Germany have warned that the deal leaves the auto industry exposed and will make companies in Europe less competitive. “The agreement is an inadequate compromise and sends a disastrous signal to the closely intertwined economies on both sides of the Atlantic,” said Wolfgang Niedermark, a member of the executive board of Germany’s BDI industry federation.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen hailed the agreement, arguing it will offer stability and predictability to businesses and consumers. Von der Leyen urged critics to “not forget where we came from,” referencing tariff rates Trump threatened that were as high as 50%. 

Wall Street appeared to be aware of the dodged bullet argument, kicking off a pivotal week with record highs and a dollar that climbed the most since May. The euro meanwhile slid the most in more than two months. The S&P 500 briefly topped 6,400 and Treasuries barely budged amid mixed results from US debt sales. Here’s your markets wrapNatasha Solo-Lyons

EU Defends Trade Deal Amid Mounting Business Criticism: Evening Briefing - Bloomberg

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Federal Reserve likely to hold interest rates steady despite pressure from Trump. Here's what that means for your money

 Published July 25, 2025  Updated on July 25, 2025 at 6:39 am

·         Despite escalating political pressure from President Donald Trump, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold its benchmark short-term borrowing rate steady at its meeting next week.

·         All sorts of consumer borrowing costs are impacted by the what the central bank decides.

·         From mortgage rates and auto loans to credit cards and savings accounts, here's a look at how the Fed affects your finances.

Ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting, relations between President Donald Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell have hit a low.

"Families are being hurt because Interest Rates are too high," Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Wednesday.

Trump has said he wants the Fed to sharply lower interest rates by as much as 3 percentage points to spur economic growth. (Although the central bank typically adjusts its benchmark in 25-basis-point increments, rates were slashed to near zero as recently as the Covid pandemic. "The Fed only resorts to such extreme measures in response to severe economic distress," said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.)

The president has argued that maintaining a federal funds rate that is too high makes it harder for businesses and consumers to borrow and puts the U.S. at an economic disadvantage to countries with lower rates.

The Fed's benchmark sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending, but also has a trickle-down effect on almost all of the borrowing and savings rates Americans see every day.

Powell said earlier this month that the Fed likely would have cut rates by now, but that it has held off due to the uncertainty and inflation risks posed by Trump's tariff agenda. Many economists say that the full impact from tariffs on pricing has only just started to be felt, and inflation could pick up in the second half of the year.

Since December, the federal funds rate has remained steady in a target range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Futures market pricing is implying almost no chance of an interest rate cut when the Fed meets next week, according to the CME Group's FedWatch gauge. Market pricing indicates the Fed is much more likely to consider a rate cut in September.

Once the fed funds rate comes down, consumers could see their borrowing costs start to fall as well.

However, "there is no guarantee this would translate into lower rates," said Brett House, an economics professor at Columbia Business School — "largely because many types of borrowing, mortgage rates specifically, are not benchmarked off the Fed."

From mortgage rates and auto loans to credit cards and savings accounts, here's a look at how the Fed affects your finances.

More

Federal Reserve likely to hold interest rates steady despite pressure from Trump. Here’s what that means for your money – NBC 6 South Florida

The Bull Market for Economists Is Over. It’s an Ominous Sign for the Economy.

Earning a Ph.D. in economics has long been a reliable path to affluence and prestige. Not anymore.

July 28, 2025

The moment it dawned on Thomas Fullagar that his job search was not going well came in April, about six months into the process, when he applied for a position in Manhattan, Kan.

The job, at a technology company called CivicPlus, involved relatively straightforward data analysis that he wouldn’t strain to do. In fact, he had done much more complicated work while completing his Ph.D. in economics at the University of California, Santa Barbara. Further improving his odds, he had grown up in Manhattan, the home of Kansas State University, and his mother knew someone at the company, who helped fast-track his application.

Yet despite his connections and credentials, he did not get the job. He didn’t even get a second interview. “It was in Manhattan, Kansas — who the heck is applying for this?” Dr. Fullagar, 33, wondered. “That one was really baffling.”

For decades, earning a Ph.D. in economics has been a nearly foolproof path to a lucrative career. Even as bearers of advanced degrees in history, English or anthropology struggled to find gainful employment, the popularity of economics as an undergraduate major created plenty of tenure-track teaching positions, while government agencies snatched up Ph.D. economists in bulk. Those looking for even larger paychecks could turn to tech companies, Wall Street and consulting firms, which bid up the price of economists as if they were a bespoke cryptocurrency.

Last year, the average base salary for newly hired economics professors at major research universities was more than $150,000, according to the American Economic Association, and their compensation swelled to about $200,000 once bonuses and summer teaching were included. As recently as the 2023-24 academic year, the employment rate for Ph.D. economists within a few months of graduation was 100 percent, said John Cawley, the chair of the association’s Committee on the Job Market, citing the group’s surveys. Job satisfaction topped 85 percent.

Those glory days seem to be ending. Universities and nonprofits have scaled back hiring amid declining state budgets and federal funding cuts. At the same time, the Trump administration has laid off government economists and frozen hiring for new ones.

More

Economists Are Struggling to Find Jobs. It’s an Ominous Sign for The Economy. - The New York Times

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

The growing threat of battery fires from e-scooters and e-bikes

27 July 2025

Firefighters face growing challenges presented by electric vehicles and need new training and equipment, the leader of the Fire Brigades Union (FBU) has said.

Steve Wright, who took over as general secretary of the FBU earlier this year, said illegally modified e-bikes and scooters were a particular concern.

The Office for Product Safety recently reported that there were at least 211 e-scooter and e-bike fires last year, including five that caused fatalities. The figure in 2020 was 26.

Natasha Johnson-Mall, 27, and her partner, Karlo Bogdan, 24, died in an e-bike fire last November. Their two dogs also perished in the blaze at their Coventry home, caused when a battery Karlo had installed on the e-bike burst into flames.

The West Midlands Fire Service reported that the fire began when the battery caught fire and “rapidly escalated into an intense blaze”.

“The battery that we believe Karlo had purchased was subject to a product recall before he purchased it due to… other fires that have happened nationally,” said fire investigation officer Annette Carrington. “It’s obvious that this risk was unknown to Karlo.”

The unique dangers of lithium-ion battery fires

Most of the e-bike and e-scooter fires reported last year were in London, and the true national total is certain to be higher since it is based on voluntary reporting by regional brigades.

“It seems like a lot of people are buying scooters cheaper, and actually they are not regulated, and then they are storing them in high-rise blocks of flats,” FBU leader Wright told The i Paper.

The fire brigade union chief said traditional methods were ineffective against lithium-ion battery fires and that further research – and new equipment and training – was needed.

“I think our equipment needs to keep pace with the advances in technology. So also the training of firefighters that’s been cut over the years,” he said.

“Cars are more advanced, and lithium-ion battery risks are going up. There is no way of extinguishing a lithium-ion battery in a motor vehicle. Water will not put that out.”

Why are lithium-ion battery fires so dangerous?

Lithium-ion battery fires are challenging to extinguish due to their unique characteristics.

Internal chemical reactions within them can sustain combustion even without external oxygen, as the battery itself generates oxygen during thermal runaway.

This process, where heat triggers further heat-generating reactions, can lead to rapid temperature increases, potentially causing explosions or the release of flammable gases, such as hydrogen, methane, and ethylene.

These gases can ignite, intensifying the fire, while toxic emissions like carbon monoxide, hydrogen fluoride, and hydrogen chloride pose health risks.

These elements make lithium-ion battery fires more hazardous and difficult to manage compared to fires fuelled by conventional materials.

More

The growing threat of battery fires from e-scooters and e-bikes

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Trump indicated in comments to the press that his global steel-and-aluminum tariffs, which are currently at 50%, would remain unchanged. Von der Leyen said the two had agreed to a quota system that would keep tariffs lower for some EU metals exports to the U.S.

Trump and EU Reach Tariff Deal, Avoiding Trade War - WSJ 

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