Baltic
Dry Index. 1431 -05 Brent Crude 70.03
Spot Gold 3296 US 2 Year Yield 3.90 unch.
US Federal Debt. 37.079 trillion
US GDP 30.123 trillion.
The Great Depression, like most other periods of severe unemployment, was produced by government mismanagement rather than by any inherent instability of the private economy.
Milton Friedman
The Great Tariff Day has arrived, except it hasn’t quite arrived. President Trump postponed it to August 1st.
But tariff tensions are now soaring all around planet Earth.
How many months after August 1st, before the global economy slides into 1929-1932 is an open question, but I suspect only three to six months, before trade disruption and higher US tariff inflation starts demolishing the global economy 1990-2024 as we knew it.
Probably demolishing the Great Nixonian Error of Fiat Money too, and with it the over dominance of the dollar reserve standard
Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed after Trump rules
out tariff deadline extension
Updated Wed, Jul 9 2025 10:34 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed
Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump ruled out a deadline extension on
tariffs set to kick off on Aug. 1.
Trump on Tuesday stateside also announced
a 50% levy on copper imports and indicated that further
sector-specific tariffs will come soon.
He also threatened to impose tariffs of up
to 200% on pharmaceutical exports into the U.S., but said that he will “give
people about a year, year and a half” until the duties
go into effect.
Trump’s tariff deadlines an ‘unhelpful
distraction’ from greater threats: Mizuho Securities
Investors have been keeping a close watch
on U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff deadlines on countries.
This, however, makes for an “unhelpful
distraction diverting attention away from greater underlying geo-economic
threats,” Vishnu Varathan, head of Macro Research, Asia ex-Japan at Mizuho
Securities says.
The levy deadlines “distract from far more
consequential, and expedient, sectoral tariffs, which arguably reverberate
across global industrial eco-systems,” he wrote in a Wednesday note.
They are also a “bait and switch” risk as
sectoral tariffs may still weigh on regions, “regardless of ‘reciprocal trade
deals’,” he added. For instance, sectoral tariffs could hit equities from a
particular sector differently across countries based on the trade deal it has
with the U.S.
Looking ahead, Varathan said that a real
“danger” is underestimating the fallout when, rather than if, China hits back.
“Asia generally is more vulnerable, given
dependence on both U.S. and China casting a shadow on sustained AXJ [Asia-ex
Japan] buoyancy through further tariff shifts. ASEAN in particular may feel
more acute squeeze between China and U.S.,” he explained.
— Amala Balakrishner
Asia
stock markets today: live updates
European stocks set to open in mixed territory as
markets digest Trump tariff comments
Updated Wed, Jul 9 2025 12:30 AM EDT
Good morning from London and welcome to
CNBC’s live blog covering all the action and business news in European
financial markets on Wednesday.
Futures data from IG suggests regional
markets will open in mixed territory, with London’s FTSE 100 expected to open
0.2% higher, Germany’s DAX 0.1%
higher and France’s CAC 40 up 0.5%higher. Futures tied to Italy’s FTSE MIB were flat this
morning.
Global markets have been seesawing this
week, as traders digest the latest trade tariff news. Overnight, Asia-Pacific
markets were mixed, while U.S. futures were little changed, after U.S.
President Donald Trump ruled out a deadline extension on steep
tariffs on 14 countries that are due take effect on Aug. 1.
Trump on Tuesday also announced a 50% levy on copper imports and signaled that more sector-specific tariffs will come soon. He also threatened to impose tariffs of up to 200% on pharmaceutical exports into the U.S., but said that he will “give people about a year, year and a half” until the duties go into effect.
Markets will be keeping an eye on comments
from the OPEC seminar in Vienna on Wednesday, as well as all the latest tech
news from the RAISE Summit in Paris, where the outlook for artificial
intelligence is a key focus.
Traders are also assessing the likelihood
of more trade deals between the U.S. and partners as the initial deadline for
reduced tariffs, Wednesday, is reached. The U.S. has already sent 14 countries
“letters” telling them what trade duties they will be hit with on a later date,
Aug. 1.
Investors in Europe are awaiting a U.S.-EU
trade deal, with speculation that an agreement could be imminent.
There are no major earnings or data
releases Wednesday.
— Holly Ellyatt
European
markets on Weds July 9: Stoxx 600, FTSE, DAX, CAC, tariffs
Trump threatens tariffs on Australian exports
8 July 2025
President Donald Trump has threatened to
slap 200 per cent tariffs on one of Australia’s biggest exports to the US.
Ahead of a US cabinet meeting later today,
Trump suggested the huge tariff hike on imported pharmaceutical products will
be in place by the end of next year. Australia exported $2.1 billion of
pharmaceuticals to the US in 2024, according to the Australian Bureau of
Statistics.
Copper is also expected to be subject to a
50 per cent tariff, although Australia's copper exports to the US are more
limited.
Trump assured that drug manufacturers will
be given 'about a year, year and a half' to relocate to the US in a bid to
escape the tariff. 'They’re going to be tariffs at a very high rate,' he told
reporters. 'We’ll give them a certain period of time to get their act
together.'
Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the
Australian government is urgently seeking more details on the 'concerning
development.'
'Our pharmaceuticals industry is much more
exposed to the US market, and that’s why we’re seeking, urgently seeking, some
more detail on what’s been announced,' he told ABC Radio National on Wednesday
morning.
'But I want to make it really clear once
again, as we have on a number of occasions before, our Pharmaceutical Benefits
Scheme is not something [we are] willing to trade away. They’re obviously very
concerning developments. We are talking about billions of dollars of exports to
the US when it comes to pharmaceuticals.'
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick later
insisted a final decision on pharmaceutical tariffs had not yet been made and
his department's review into the imports wouldn't be completed until later this
month. 'The president will then set his policies,' Lutnick told CNBC. 'And I'm
going to let him wait to decide how he's going to do it. He said, "If you
don't build in America, they're going to be a high rate." But he may
consider that if you're building in America, to give you the time to build … and
then the tariff will be much higher.'
Trump
threatens tariffs on Australian exports
Copper Spikes on Trump’s Latest Tariff Threat
July 8, 2025 at 10:51 PM GMT+1
US President Donald Trump rattled a new
market Tuesday in his ongoing global trade war, announcing plans to implement
a 50% levy on copper. The statement predictably sent copper futures in
New York surging
to their largest intraday gain in decades. The new threat comes a day
after Trump retreated on his promised “reciprocal” tariffs, which he already
delayed once before, while announcing new threatened rates for
more than a dozen countries. On Tuesday, he insisted this new delay would
be the last one. —Jordan
Parker Erb
Copper
Spikes on Trump’s Latest Tariff Threat: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg
US offers EU 10 percent tariff deal — with caveats
Negotiations are still fluid, with any
trade agreement subject to final approval by Donald Trump.
July 7, 2025 11:39 pm CET By Camille Gijs and Koen Verhelst
The United States has offered an agreement
to the European Union that would keep a 10 percent baseline tariff on all EU
goods, with some exceptions for sensitive sectors such as aircraft and spirits,
an EU diplomat and a national official told POLITICO.
The Trump administration had said
on Sunday that it would push back a deadline for the return of its
sweeping tariffs to Aug. 1. Tariffs would then revert to their April 2 rates
for countries that fail to nail down new U.S. trade deals.
Trump began on Monday to issue letters to
countries stating their tariff rates, starting
with South Korea and Japan, which will both face a 25 percent tariff from Aug.
1.
EU trade chief Maroš Šefčovič has been in
contact with the U.S. administration following a call on Sunday between U.S.
President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Stressing the sensitivity of those
talks, Šefčovič debriefed with EU ambassadors and said the Commission was
not expecting to receive one of those letters, two diplomats said.
The contours of a trade agreement are
still very much a moving target, the diplomats stressed, with any deal subject
to Trump’s blessing to move forward.
Washington gave no indications it would
exempt politically sensitive industries such as cars, steel and aluminum or
pharmaceuticals, as requested by the EU. France, Italy and Ireland would likely be pleased with
exemptions on spirits and aircraft, however.
Trump’s press secretary Karoline Leavitt
said Monday that an
executive order would
make the extension of the pause official.
Before that announcement came through, the
bloc was still operating on the old target of July 8 and was aiming to strike
an agreement with Washington — with the EU executive adamant it would work
toward a deal by
Wednesday.
Irish Trade Minister Simon Harris,
however, said
in a statement Monday
evening that “we can now expect an extension of the current status quo until
August 1 to give further time for the EU and the U.S. to reach an agreement in
principle.”
At the same time, Brussels faces a dilemma
as to whether to accept asymmetry in its dealings with Washington or face
further unpredictability from the Trump administration.
In the Monday evening meeting, which
diplomats described as somber, Brussels noted that it hadn’t received any
guarantees from the U.S. administration that there wouldn't be further U-turns
on tariffs.
The European Commission declined to
comment, adding that "negotiations were ongoing."
US offers EU 10
percent tariff deal — with caveats – POLITICO
In other news
Sino-European Tensions Simmer Ahead of Key Summit
July 8, 2025 at 5:00 PM GMT+1
Tensions between the European Union and
China are simmering ahead of a key summit, with the two economic giants
scrapping over trade and security. Beijing
is flooding global markets with subsidized goods to wipe out
competitors, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said today. She
demanded Beijing correct market distortions that have shut down entire
European industries.
The flare-up follows Chinese retaliatory
measures targeting EU medical device makers. Friction between Beijing
and Brussels has grown in recent months, fueled by issues including China’s
stricter control over rare earths that has affected European
businesses. In a sign of strain, the
Chinese government intended to shorten a two-day summit with
EU leaders this month to just a day.
And the relationship could become even
more fraught.
Documents we reviewed offer
unprecedented insight into how Moscow
has been capitalizing on its friendly ties with Beijing to skirt
Western sanctions and acquire the know-how and capability to build drones to
attack Ukraine. They lay out in detail a previously unreported case study of
Russian-Chinese corporate collaboration on defense
technology. With the EU all in on helping Ukraine defend itself, the depth
of Beijing’s assistance to Russia may prompt even deeper questioning over
whether the bloc’s China strategy is working. --Jonathan
Tirone
Sino-European
Tensions Simmer Ahead of Key Summit - Bloomberg
Jane Street to challenge India ban, says it
engaged in basic arbitrage
Published Tue, Jul 8 2025 3:39 AM EDT
Jane Street has told staff it
will contest a ban by India’s financial regulator which has
accused the U.S. high-frequency trading giant of market manipulation, adding
that its practices in question were “basic index arbitrage trading”.
Jane Street said it was “beyond
disappointed” by what it called “extremely inflammatory” accusations from the
Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is working on a
formal response, according to an internal email sent to employees over the
weekend that was seen by Reuters.
The email did not elaborate on the
potential action that Jane Street might take.
SEBI on Friday barred the firm
from buying and selling securities in the Indian market and seized $567
million of its funds.
It alleged
that Jane Street bought large quantities of constituents
in India’s Bank Nifty index in the cash and futures markets to
artificially support the index in morning trade, while simultaneously building
large short positions in index options which were exercised or allowed to
expire later in the day.
The regulator, which
tracked Jane Street’s trading patterns for more than two years, has
also widened its investigation to include other indexes and exchanges, a source
has said.
Over the past three years, India’s
derivatives market has had explosive growth as retail investors swarmed in and
is now the world’s largest. But that has also led to losses for many ordinary
investors, which has become a concern for regulators.
Seeking lawyers
Jane Street has been sounding
out Indian law firms for its upcoming battle with SEBI but has yet to hire
one, said four sources with knowledge of the matter. They were not authorised
to comment on the matter and declined to be identified.
The next step
by Jane Street would likely be to lodge an appeal with the
Securities Appellate Tribunal, the sources added.
Jane Street did not immediately
reply to a request for comment on Monday.
In its email to
staff, Jane Street said arbitrage trades were “a core
and commonplace mechanism of financial markets that keeps the prices of related
instruments in line.”
More
Jane Street to
challenge India ban, says it engaged in basic arbitrage
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Japan
calls Trump’s latest tariff salvo ‘regrettable’ as nations scramble to deal
with fresh deadline
Published
Tue, Jul 8 20251:04 AM EDT
U.S.
President Donald Trump’s tariff letters that threaten steep duties on several
countries, including key allies, have led to “shock” and “regret” even as
nations expressed optimism that negotiations would yield favorable results.
Japanese
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said the latest tariff announcement was “truly
regrettable,” while
stressing that he would continue negotiations with the U.S. government,
according to local media reports.
Japan
is among the two nations set to to see an increase in the “reciprocal” tariff
rate that Trump had announced in April. Japanese imports into the U.S. will
face a 25% levy, starting Aug. 1, according to the White House, higher than the
24% announced earlier.
At
a meeting with cabinet ministers on Japan’s strategy on tariffs, Ishiba noted
that the Trump administration had proposed a plan to continue talks until the
August deadline.
“Depending
on Japan’s response, the content of the letter could be revised,” Ishiba said
at the meeting Tuesday morning, hours after Trump posted a copy of his tariff
letters on social media platform Truth Social.
Meanwhile,
South Korean leaders vowed to accelerate tariff negotiations with the Trump
administration to “swiftly resolve trade uncertainties,” Yonhap News
reported,
citing a statement from the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy.
Trump
announced a 20% blanket tariff on imports from the country, unchanged from his
“reciprocal” tariff level announced in April.
Yeo
Han-Koo, South Korea’s trade minister, also reportedly asked U.S. to lower tariffs on
automobiles, steel and other goods for Korean companies in a meeting with U.S.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in Washington.
Thai
Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira said Tuesday that he was “a little
shocked” by the latest tariff rate but remained “confident” that it will drop
to levels similar to those on other countries, according to Reuters.
Thailand
faces a 36% tariff on its exports to the U.S. — one of the steepest rates among
the 14 nations Trump mentioned Monday — unchanged from the April level.
Malaysia,
which saw its tariff rate rise to 25% from the previously threatened 24%, said
it will continue to engage with the U.S. to address outstanding issues.
“Malaysia
is committed to continuing engagement with the US towards a balanced, mutually
beneficial, and comprehensive trade agreement,” the Ministry of Investment,
Trade and Industry said in a statement Tuesday.
Outside
Asia, South African president Cyril Ramaphosa disagreed with the 30% tariff
rate in a statement posted
on X.
The levy was “not an accurate representation of available trade data,”
Ramaphosa said, adding that 77% of U.S. goods entered the country with zero
tariff.
South
Africa will continue with its diplomatic efforts toward a “more balanced and
mutually beneficial trade relationship with the United States,” he said.
Deborah
Elms, head of trade policy at a think tank Hinrich Foundation, said countries’
negotiating efforts with Trump seemed to have little impact on the outcome.
“ASEAN
members that worked hard to develop packages received almost all the same
treatment as countries that either did not fly to DC or were not invited to
meet,” Elms said, adding that Trump may still be targeting Asian nations out of
“worries over regional supply chains that include content from China.”
Trump
shared screenshots of letters detailing new tariff rates for over a dozen
countries in a series of social media posts Monday, allowing room for further
negotiations before the renewed deadline of Aug. 1. The letters indicated that
the U.S. could consider adjusting the new tariff levels.
Japan calls
Trump's latest tariff salvo 'regrettable'
Tariffs,
declining real wages, slowing growth: Japan’s central bank has its work cut out
Published
Mon, Jul 7 2025 7:50 PM EDT
The
Bank of Japan faces a stiff challenge as it strives to normalize its monetary
policy at a time when growth has been slowing, while steep U.S. tariffs further
threaten the country’s exports-driven economy.
Declining
real wages have compounded the BOJ’s troubles. Real wages dropped at their
fastest pace in 20 months in May, pressuring the central bank to raise rates
and rein in inflation.
Data
from the country’s ministry of health, labor and welfare shows that
real wages dropped 2.9% compared to the year before, sharper than the revised
2% fall in April and also marking their fifth straight month of decline.
The
wage data highlights that inflation is taking a substantial bite out of incomes
in Japan, despite sharp salary hikes.
Japan’s
unions secured the highest
wage increase since 1991 in this year’s spring wage negotiations, with
the Japanese
Trade Union Confederation, or Rengo, saying last week that its members had
received a headline pay bump of 5.25% for the year starting April.
However,
inflation has continued to run above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for more
than three years, with the most recent reading coming in at 3.5%, diluting the
net impact of wage hikes.
Government
data shows that while nominal wages have risen every month since December 2021,
real wages have fallen year on year for more than 30 of the 41 months since.
The
BOJ has long stated that a “virtuous cycle” where higher salaries fuel
growth in prices was needed for it to raise rates, but an economic slowdown
appears to be constraining the bank’s ability to tighten policy.
Japan’s
economy also shrunk for the first time in a year in the first quarter,
contracting 0.2% quarter on quarter as exports declined, hitting the
trade-dependent economy.
More
Tariffs, declining
wages, slowing growth: BOJ has its work cut out
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
New Covid strain spreads across UK with unique symptom
8 July 2025
A new strain of Covid has spread across the UK with some experts warning it is resisting immunity.
Unlike other strains, the
Stratus strain is known for its unique symptom of giving people a hoarse voice.
Stratus has two variants,
XFG and XFG.3, with XFG.3 accounting for a larger proportion than any other
individual variant, according to the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).
The XFG and XFG.3
variants currently account for around 30 percent of Covid-19 cases in England,
according to the UKHSA.
“It is normal for viruses
to mutate and change over time,” Dr Alex Allen, Consultant Epidemiologist of
UKHSA said, adding that it continues to monitor all strains of Covid in the UK.
While many experts warn
of its highly infectious nature, Dr Allen noted: “Based on the available
information so far, there is no evidence to suggest that the XFG and XFG.3
variants cause more severe disease than previous variants, or that the vaccines in current use will
be less effective against them.”
It comes as new Covid
variants continue to spread throughout the country, with Nimbus giving people
razor-blade like sore throats last month.
The Nimbus variant,
officially named NB.1.8.1, stemmed from the Omicron variant and was first
detected in January this year.
It quickly spread across
China and Hong Kong, and has now been recorded in several states across the
United States and Australia.
However the true extent
of the spread of variants can often be hard to measure due to a significant
reduction in Covid-19 testing compared to the peak of the global pandemic five
years ago.
“Given that immunity to
Covid is waning in the population due to a decline in uptake of the spring
booster jab and the reduction of Covid infections in recent months, more people
will be susceptible to infection with XFG and XFG.3,” Professor Lawrence Young,
a virologist at Warwick University, told MailOnline.
“This could lead to a new
wave of infection but it’s difficult to predict the extent of this wave.”
Some experts have warned
Stratus could also evade immunity from jabs.
“Unlike other variants,
Stratus has certain mutations in the spike protein which could help it evade
antibodies developed from prior infections or vaccinations,” Dr Kaywaan Khan,
Harley Street GP and Founder of Hannah London Clinic told Cosmopolitan
UK
“One of the most
noticeable symptoms of the Stratus variant is hoarseness, which includes a
scratchy or raspy voice,” Dr Khan said, adding that Stratus symptoms tend to be
mild to moderate in general.
As of 22 June, Stratus
accounted for 22.7 percent of global covid cases, according to the World Health
Organisation (WHO).
WHO designated Stratus a
“variant under monitoring” but noted that the available evidence currently
suggests it has a low risk to global public health
New Covid strain spreads across UK with unique symptom
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Sharjah becomes launchpad for advanced Graphene technologies
7 July 2025
SHARJAH, 7th July 2025 (WAM) -- Graphene
Innovations Manchester (GIM), a UK-headquartered deep-tech company
internationally recognised for transforming graphene, AI, and robotics into
industrial-scale innovations, has opened GIM WildCat, a cutting-edge facility
at Sharjah Research, Technology & Innovation Park (SRTI Park).
GIM WildCat is a Commercial Development
Centre and Investor Engagement Hub. The move marks a strong new phase in GIM’s
global journey, accelerating the commercialisation of revolutionary
graphene-based technologies in the Middle East and beyond.
With presence in the UK, Saudi Arabia,
UAE, Asia, and the US, GIM is pioneering advanced materials across key sectors
through divisions such as GIM GrapheneFibre (graphene enriched carbon fibre),
GIM Concrete (patented no cement no water concrete), GIM Composites, GIM
StarLight Miami (AI-powered data centre cooling), GIM Medical, GIM Hydrogen,
and GIM Space Station.
Located at the heart of SRTI Park, GIM
WildCat has been designed with the following objectives: demonstrate next-gen
graphene-enhanced products and prototypes, facilitate investor relations and
strategic partnerships, enable business development and market access across
MENA and Asia, and explore joint R&D initiatives within SRTI Park’s
collaborative ecosystem.
Hussain Al Mahmoudi, CEO of SRTI Park,
hailed the collaboration, “We are delighted to welcome Graphene Innovations
Manchester to SRTI Park. Their presence brings world-class graphene technology
and sustainable manufacturing closer to the region. This partnership
exemplifies our commitment to fostering next-generation industries and
attracting the world’s most innovative companies to Sharjah.”
Dr. Vivek Koncherry, CEO & Chairman
of GIM WildCat & GIM, said, “We are excited to launch GIM WildCat in the
UAE’s most forward-thinking innovation park. We believe Sharjah and SRTI Park
provide the ideal ecosystem for our technologies to thrive, commercially,
scientifically, and globally.”
“Sharjah’s position as a regional
innovation capital made it the perfect choice. With SRTI Park’s
state-of-the-art infrastructure, streamlined regulatory environment, and close
ties to leading academic and research institutions, GIM has found a true innovation
partner to propel its ambitions forward,” Dr. Koncherry added.
The launch of GIM WildCat signals GIM’s
deep commitment to the region’s growth, sustainability goals, and
innovation-driven economy. The company seeks to collaborate with investors and
customers to enable them to experience the technologies shaping the future,
right from the UAE.
Graphene is a single honeycomb layer of
carbon atoms that is harder than diamond, stronger than steel, lighter than
aluminum, more conductive than copper, impermeable to gases, and more flexible
and elastic than rubber.
Graphene Innovations Manchester is a
multi-award-winning world leader in applying graphene across various sectors,
integrating robotics, artificial intelligence (AI), and extensive expertise in
two-dimensional (2D) materials.
Sharjah becomes launchpad for advanced Graphene technologies
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
I was
21 and looking for work in 1932, one of the worst years of the Great
Depression. And I can remember one bleak night in the thirties when my father
learned on Christmas Eve that he'd lost his job. To be young in my generation
was to feel that your future had been mortgaged out from under you, and that's
a tragic mistake we must never allow our leaders to make again.
Ronald Reagan
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