Wednesday, 23 July 2025

US-Japan Trade Deal. EU Tariff Day Minus 09. ECB Day Minus 1.

Baltic Dry Index. 2035 +19           Brent Crude 68.81

Spot Gold 3423                   US 2 Year Yield 3.8 -0.02

US Federal Debt. 37.137 trillion

US GDP 30.153 trillion.

Term limits would cure both senility and seniority- both terrible legislative diseases.

Harry S. Truman

By coincidence or not, on the day of Fed Chairman Powell’s speech to a gathering of international banksters in Washington, President Trump announced a trade deal with Japan.

Japan stocks jump over 3% as Trump announces trade deal; broader Asia markets also rise

Updated Wed, Jul 23 2025 10:46 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets opened higher after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he had completed a “massive Deal” with Japan, which set tariffs of 15% on the country’s exports to the U.S.

Overnight, the U.S. benchmark S&P 500 rose to another record high.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumps 3%; here’s how the yen and JGBs are doing

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 and the Topix have surged over 3% respectively.

Japan’s 10-year bond yield added eight basis points to 1.593%, while the 30-year bond yield was up over 3 basis points to 3.12%.

The Japanese yen last traded at 147.15 against the dollar.

— Lee Ying Shan

China markets rise at the open

Mainland China and Hong Kong stocks opened higher, with the region largely in the green.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 was up 0.3%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index — which includes major Chinese companies — gained 0.63%.

The Hang Seng Tech Index, which tracks the largest technology companies listed in Hong Kong, rose 0.73%.

—Lee Ying Shan

Stocks of Japanese automakers soar on report of lower U.S. tariffs

Shares of Japanese automakers surged after the U.S. reportedly lowered its tariffs on autos from the country to 15% from 25%, according to the Tokyo’s public broadcaster NHK, citing a Japanese official.

Stocks of Japan’s Honda jumped 8.42%, while Toyota climbed 9.97%. Nissan jumped over 7%, and Mazda Motor surged over 16%. Mitsubishi Motors popped over 12%.

Stocks of South Korean carmaker Hyundai also rose over 5% on the announcement, while Kia was up 7.06%.

It is unclear if the reduced rate will be extended to other Asian automakers.

Read the full report here.

—Lee Ying Shan

Asia stock market live updates: U.S.-Japan trade deal

US and Japan agree trade deal

Donald Trump announces ‘massive’ deal that lowers levy to 15% from threatened 25%

22 July 2025

The US has agreed a trade deal with Japan that will impose 15 per cent tariffs on goods imported into America from the world’s fourth-largest economy.

The 15 per cent levy is lower than the 25 per cent President Donald Trump had threatened in a letter earlier this month, but higher than the 10 per cent rate that had been in force while the countries negotiated.

The higher levies signal that Trump is willing to keep elevated tariffs on major US allies as he ratchets up his aggressive trade policy. Dozens of nations face an August 1 deadline to reach a deal after which Trump has said he will impose higher tariffs.

The US president said Japan would “open” its markets to American cars and rice, which had been sticking points during negotiations between the close allies. “

We just completed a massive Deal with Japan, perhaps the largest Deal ever made,” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform late on Tuesday. “Japan will open their Country to Trade including Cars and Trucks, Rice and certain other Agricultural Products, and other things. Japan will pay Reciprocal Tariffs to the United States of 15%.”

A US official confirmed that the US would lower the tariff on Japan’s autos and auto parts to 15 per cent.

Japan’s chief negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said steel and aluminium tariffs of 50 per cent, as well as defence spending commitments, were not included in the trade deal.Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said that his country would have auto tariffs reduced to 15 per cent without any quota on the number of imports. “We have been able to achieve a reduction in tariffs on automobiles and auto parts without quantitative restrictions, ahead of the rest of the world,” he said.

The automotive sector is a pillar of the Japanese economy and makes up the bulk of its $63bn trade surplus with the US.

More

US and Japan agree trade deal

Reaction to U.S. trade deal with Japan

23 July 2025

(Reuters) -President Donald Trump on Tuesday said the U.S. and Japan had struck a trade deal that includes a 15% tariff that will be levied on U.S. imports from the country.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the deal would include $550 billion of Japanese investments in the United States.

COMMENTS

KRISTINA CLIFTON, SENIOR ECONOMIST, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA, SYDNEY:

"We don't know all the details yet, apart from just that he will place a 15% tariff on imports from Japan.

"It's a lower rate than what President Trump announced on Liberation Day, so to that end, it's a better outcome than potentially they could've seen. Steel, aluminium, and also cars are important exports for Japan, so it'll be interesting to see if there's any specific carve-outs for those."

HIROFUMI SUZUKI, CHIEF CURRENCY STRATEGIST, SMBC, TOKYO:

"This is good news for the Japanese economy. However, it alone will not prompt the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, and the pressure to buy yen will likely be limited. If anything, political instability is having more of an impact on the market, and the pressure for yen depreciation is likely to continue."

Reaction to U.S. trade deal with Japan

Americans Seem to Be the Ones Paying Trump’s Tariffs

July 22, 2025 at 11:16 PM GMT+1

Who’s paying for Donald Trump’s tariffs? So far, it appears to be American businesses and consumers. General Motors was the latest US company to disclose how the levies are raising costs, with the automaker saying Tuesday that the duties dented profits by more than $1 billion as it chose to absorb the blow. That helps explain why car prices didn’t rise in last week’s inflation data, while robust price increases for other commonly imported goods like toys and appliances showed those tariff expenses are indeed being passed on to consumers.

GM said it suffered a $1.1 billion profit hit from Trump’s trade war and revealed no plan for a near-term fix to return to pre-tariff profit levels. The automaker said it earned $2.53 per share on an adjusted basis, above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of $2.33 but short of the $3.06 it made a year ago.

Meanwhile, import prices excluding fuel were up notably in June, suggesting foreign companies aren’t shouldering the burden by offering US firms lower prices—challenging the Republican president’s claims that other countries pay the rate. While customs duties are giving a significant boost to US revenues, the data show that those coffers are being filled domestically.

“The top-down macro evidence seems clear: Americans are mostly paying for the tariffs,” George Saravelos, global head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, said in a note Tuesday. “There is likely more pressure on US consumer prices in the pipeline.” Jordan Parker Erb and David E. Rovella

Americans Have Been the Ones Paying Trump’s Tariffs: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg

In Fed Chairman Powell news, his speech, a dud, was, upstaged by President Trump’s trade deal with Japan.

Top Republican mocked after falling for a 'fake' Jerome Powell resignation letter

22 July 2025

Utah Republican is being raked over the coals for sharing a fake resignation letter, made out to be from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

GOP Senator Mike Lee shared the fake letter in a post on X with the caption 'Powell's Out!', before he realized his mistake and deleted it.

The letter contained several obvious signs of being fake, including a seal that appears to be AI generated. It was also addressed to “The President, The White House, Washington DC,' and had several oddly placed hyphens in the middle of words. 

Lee admitted his error to The Hill, stating that “There appeared to be one, and it occurred to me seconds after I posted it that I hadn’t seen it anywhere else, so I deleted it out of an abundance of caution. I don’t know whether it’s legit or not.” 

Still, that momentary lapse in judgement drew the ire of social media users who took no pity on Lee.

Tim Miller, former communications directors for Jeb Bush's Presidential campaign and now a writer for the Bulwark mocked Lee, replying on X that the post was deleted out of 'an abundance of caution!'

More

Top Republican mocked after falling for a 'fake' Jerome Powell resignation letter

In other news.

Police Scotland looking to draft in Northern Ireland cops for Donald Trump's north-east visit

Mon 21 July 2025 at 1:18 pm BST

Police Scotland is looking to draft in extra officers from Northern Ireland for help during Donald Trump's visit to Aberdeen this week.

The US President is due to open a new golf course at his Balmedie resort, and meet separately with Keir Starmer and John Swinney in the Granite City.

The Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) has received a request for "mutual aid" amid claims the single force is under significant pressure ahead of the trip, reports the Daily Record.

Trump will be in Scotland for five days from Friday and he is expected to visit both his golf courses in Ayrshire and Aberdeenshire.

The trip will inspire huge protests and Police Scotland will deploy its officers to ensure order is maintained.

(NPoCC) and we can confirm that PSNI have received a request to provide mutual aid to Police Scotland which we are currently assessing.

"The decision to provide officers under the mutual aid process will be considered against our own demands, ensuring that we retain the capacity to respond effectively to local issues and maintain our own operational competence."

The Scottish Police Federation warned at the weekend of a strain on resources ahead of the trip, as David Kennedy, general secretary of the SPF, told the Sunday Mail: "It’s a recipe for disaster. We don’t have enough cops.

"President Trump is a magnet to certain groups. There will be protests. And just because the President is in one place doesn’t mean that’s where the protests will take place. With this event, it is survival mode. That’s the mentality that will set in."

He added: "We’ll survive but we shouldn’t have to just survive. They will need plenty of help from the UK.

"All this costs money and Police Scotland’s budget is already bust. Everybody working longer hours and days has a knock-on effect for months, if not years."

Police Scotland looking to draft in Northern Ireland cops for Donald Trump's north-east visit

Air India cockpit recording suggests captain cut fuel to engines before crash, source says

July 21, 2025

WASHINGTON/SEATTLE (Reuters) -A cockpit recording of dialogue between the two pilots of the Air India flight that crashed last month supports the view that the captain cut the flow of fuel to the plane's engines, said a source briefed on U.S. officials' early assessment of evidence.

The first officer was at the controls of the Boeing 787 and asked the captain why he moved the fuel switches into a position that starved the engines of fuel and requested that he restore the fuel flow, the source told Reuters on condition of anonymity because the matter remains under investigation.

The U.S. assessment is not contained in a formal document, said the source, who emphasized the cause of the June 12 crash in Ahmedabad, India, that killed 260 people remains under investigation.

There was no cockpit video recording definitively showing which pilot flipped the switches, but the weight of evidence from the conversation points to the captain, according to the early assessment.

India's Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB), which is leading the investigation into the crash, said in a statement on Thursday that "certain sections of the international media are repeatedly attempting to draw conclusions through selective and unverified reporting." It added the investigation was ongoing and it remained too early to draw definitive conclusions.

The Wall Street Journal first reported similar information on Wednesday about the world's deadliest aviation accident in a decade.

The Federation of Indian Pilots, through its Indian law firm APJ-SLG Law Offices, sent a legal notice to Reuters about a July 17 story published by the news agency which referenced the WSJ article.

The notice asked Reuters to desist from publication of any content "that speculates on the cause of the crash or attributes fault to any individuals, especially deceased pilots, in the absence of official confirmation and final report."

Most air crashes are caused by multiple factors, and under international rules, a final report is expected within a year of an accident.

A preliminary report released by the AAIB on Saturday said one pilot was heard on the cockpit voice recorder asking the other why he cut off the fuel and "the other pilot responded that he did not do so."

Investigators did not identify which remarks were made by Captain Sumeet Sabharwal and which by First Officer Clive Kunder, who had total flying experience of 15,638 hours and 3,403 hours, respectively.

The AAIB's preliminary report said the fuel switches had switched from "run" to "cutoff" a second apart just after takeoff, but it did not say how they were moved.

---- NO SAFETY RECOMMENDATIONS

In an internal memo on Monday, Air India CEO Campbell Wilson said the preliminary report found no mechanical or maintenance faults and that all required maintenance had been carried out. 

The AAIB's preliminary report had no safety recommendations for Boeing or engine manufacturer GE. 

More

Air India cockpit recording suggests captain cut fuel to engines before crash, source says

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Tariff talks may drag on, but no US recession in sight: Ned Davis strategist

July 22, 2025, 11:27:54 AM IST

Ed Clissold, Chief US Strategist at Ned Davis Research, said the Trump administration appears to have backed itself into a corner by first announcing a 90-day pause on trade decisions, then extending it by 30 days, and now leaving it open-ended.

“If the countries they are negotiating with don’t like the deal, then they can stand firm,” he said. He believes this approach is likely to continue for a while and added, “This is probably going to be a story that’s going to be with us for months and months to come.” The delay in India’s case also reflects this wider pattern.

Clissold thinks the economic impact of these trade moves will be small for now. “I think it will be a slight negative, but probably not enough to cause a recession in the US,” he said. However, if talks drag on for six to twelve months, they could start affecting real business data. Companies may avoid starting new projects due to a lack of clarity on trade rules, which could hinder capital expenditure and slow growth.

Despite global uncertainties, Clissold said India remains a strong long-term pick among emerging markets, thanks to favourable demographics and global sector alignment. His team maintains at least a market weight, if not slightly overweight, on India.

The US economy, in his view, is still on solid ground in the short term, supported by strong earnings and job creation. But he warned of longer-term risks from tariffs. “There’s no such thing as a free lunch,” Clissold said, stating that protectionist policies could make the US economy less competitive over time, much like what was seen in the 1970s.

Tariff talks may drag on, but no US recession in sight: Ned Davis strategist - CNBC TV18

UK borrowing climbs as inflation pushes up debt costs

22 July 2025

LONDON (Reuters) -Britain borrowed more than expected in June as high inflation added to the government's debt costs, according to official data that is likely to add to speculation about the need for fresh tax increases later this year.

Public sector net borrowing totalled 20.7 billion pounds ($27.88 billion) last month, the data showed.

Britain's budget watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility, forecast borrowing of 17.1 billion pounds in June when it published its outlook in March.

That was before a strong inflation reading in April had the effect of pushing up inflation-linked government bond payments.

Tuesday's data from the Office for National Statistics showed interest payable on central government debt was 16.4 billion pounds in June, the second-highest June central government interest bill since monthly records began in 1997.

Finance minister Rachel Reeves is expected to raise taxes in a budget statement towards the end of 2025 in order to remain on track to meet her targets for fixing the public finances.

UK borrowing climbs as inflation pushes up debt costs

UK grocery inflation jumps to 5.2% in four weeks to July 13, Worldpanel says

22 July 2025

LONDON (Reuters) -British grocery price inflation rose to 5.2% for the four weeks to July 13, its highest level since January last year, according to data from market researcher Worldpanel by Numerator, adding to pressure on low-income households.

The figure is up from 4.7% in last month's report.

Britain is struggling with persistently high inflation, as supermarkets face rising staff wages, new employer taxes and regulatory costs, even as commodity prices climb.

Worldpanel by Numerator, which formerly published the data under the name Kantar Worldpanel, said just under two-thirds of households say they are "very concerned" about the cost of their groceries, and are switching to supermarket own-label products.

Inflation in Britain is the highest of any major advanced economy and is around one percentage point more than in the United States or the euro zone.

Grocery sales in value terms grew 5.4% year-on-year over the four weeks, helped by warm weather which boosted ice cream and sorbet sales by 33%, while sales of iced coffee and strawberries also jumped.

Sales at Tesco, the country's biggest supermarket, increased by 7.1% in the 12 weeks to July 13 compared to the same period last year, extending its market share to 28.3%, while No.2 player Sainsbury's sales gained 5.3%.

No.3 grocer Asda remained the industry laggard with a sales decline of 3%, outshone by online specialist Ocado and discounters Lidl and Aldi, which showed sales growth of 11.7%, 11.1% and 6.3% respectively in the period.

More

UK grocery inflation jumps to 5.2% in four weeks to July 13, Worldpanel says

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Today, a growing fire problem of the 21st century.

Moment raging inferno engulfs block of flats after overcharged e-bike battery bursts into flames

22 July 2025

A raging inferno ripped through a block of flats in west London after an overcharged e-bike battery caught alight.

Residents in Hanwell evacuated themselves at 6pm on July 19 after spotting the blaze from their windows.

Neighbours stopped outside to stare as the blaze took over the flat, while others shouted from their own balconies at people trying to go in.

As the building went up in flames, concerned residents in a neighbouring block told people to 'get out' and warned them the e-bike 'can explode anytime'.  

Some residents say they've been left traumatised by the incident - after having a 'lucky escape.'

The resident who filmed the footage, 46-year-old journalist Artur Kieruzal, said: 'People who lived in the block opposite saw the fire from their windows.

'At first, people thought it was just fireworks - because it sounded exactly the same.

'They were shocked to see the e-bike battery had literally exploded.'

People who lived in the block of flats, including a 44-year-old mother-of-two, immediately evacuated themselves.

The mother, who does not wish to be named, said: 'We heard an explosion that sounded like fireworks.

'My son [11] ran out to me and said: 'The house is burning.'

'I went out onto the terrace and saw thick, black smoke - my husband [44] and I grabbed our children and ran.

'We're on the fourth floor - we couldn't see through the smoke, and we had to make our way down four flights of stairs with children aged six and 11.

'We thought we could be engulfed in flames at any moment, so we shouted: 'Fire, fire, everybody get out,' to our neighbours.'

----The London Fire Brigade confirmed the source of the blaze to be an e-bike battery after putting it out.

More

Moment raging inferno engulfs block of flats after overcharged e-bike battery bursts into flames

Fire breaks out on Virgin Australia plane mid-flight likely due to power bank

22 July 2025

A fire broke out on a Hobart-bound Virgin Australia flight mid-air reportedly from a passenger’s power bank inside the overhead cabin.

Flight VA1528, which departed from Sydney, was beginning its descent into Hobart about 9am on Monday when the fire started in an overhead locker, according to reports.

The cabin crew reportedly found a lithium battery on fire after they opened the overhead compartment following complaints of a smell of smoke. Passengers told local media that flames leapt out of the locker, which triggered panic and prompted some travellers to jump out of their seats.

The crew extinguished the fire before landing and removed the bag once the plane landed.

The plane landed safely at Hobart Airport after the incident, a Virgin Australia spokesperson said in a statement. “All guests disembarked the aircraft, as per standard operating procedures,” the spokesperson said.

"Safety is always our highest priority. We appreciate the swift and professional response of our flight and cabin crew, as well as the support of Airservices Australia firefighters."

The crew members were assessed by paramedics upon landing.

Matt Cocker, the chief operating officer of Hobart Airport, said one person received medical attention for suspected smoke inhalation. “The outbound Virgin flight back to Sydney is currently delayed; however, all other operations at Hobart Airport are running as usual,” he said.

A series of incidents globally involving lithium battery products, including power banks, overheating on planes, have prompted authorities to tighten rules on power banks. In January this year, South Korea said that a spare power bank was the possible cause of a fire that had engulfed a Busan Air flight to Hong Kong.

Aviation rules generally say power banks should be carried in cabin baggage, but increasingly airlines are banning their use on board and say they must be kept within view to spot any problems.

Lithium batteries in devices such as laptops, mobile phones, electronic cigarettes, and power banks can produce smoke, fire or extreme heat when manufacturing faults or damage cause them to short-circuit. They are a growing concern for aviation safety as passengers carry more battery-powered items on flights.

Last year, the US Federal Aviation Administration recorded three incidents of lithium batteries overheating on planes every two weeks globally compared to just under one a week in 2018.

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission witnessed a 92 per cent increase in reported incidents involving lithium-ion batteries in 2022, according to the Civil Aviation Safety Authority.

Fire breaks out on Virgin Australia plane mid-flight likely due to power bank

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

I remember when I first came to Washington. For the first six months you wonder how the hell you ever got here. For the next six months you wonder how the hell the rest of them ever got here.

Harry S. Truman

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