Baltic
Dry Index. 1465 +42 Brent Crude 68.73
Spot Gold 3332 US 2 Year Yield 3.86 unch.
US Federal Debt. 37.087 trillion
US GDP 30.127 trillion.
The history of government management of money has, except for a few short happy periods, been one of incessant fraud and deception.
Friedrich August von Hayek
In our new 2025 tariff war, all against all, and USA all against the Rest of the World, things took a nasty turn yesterday.
To say nothing good comes from going down this road, is great understatement.
At best, a new 2025-2026 global recession. At worst, a repeat of 1929-1932 but on massive debt steroids. War?
Below, the calm before the hurricane?
Asia-Pacific markets mostly rise after Trump hits
Canada with 35% tariffs
Updated Fri, Jul 11 2025 11:45 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets traded mostly higher
Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced 35%
tariffs on Canada starting Aug. 1.
He also told NBC News Thursday that he
plans to impose blanket tariffs of 15% or 20% on most trade partners.
“I think the tariffs have been very
well-received. The stock market hit a new high today,” the president told NBC
News’ “Meet the Press” moderator Kristen Welker in a phone call.
Here’s a snapshot of how markets are
faring:
Singapore’s benchmark Straits Times Index
climbed to a fresh high Friday, notching its fifth consecutive day of gains.
The country’s equities climbed 0.51% to
hit a fresh record of 4,096 points Thursday as of 11.33 a.m. local time, data
from LSEG showed.
—Lee Ying Shan
Hong Kong, China markets open higher
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose
0.93%, and the mainland’s CSI 300 index climbed 0.2% at the open.
“We are relatively optimistic about China
due to its reasonable valuation, the prospect for further stimulus and its
potential to catch up in AI,” UOB analysts wrote in a Thursday note.
However, the bank noted that they’ve
turned more cautious recently due to the weakening real estate market as well
as a “policy vacuum” amid trade negotiations.
“Within China equities, we favor AI and
tourism for the secular growth potential, and high dividend yield stocks for
their defensive nature,” UOB said.
—Lee Ying Shan
Trump announces 35% tariffs on Canada
starting Aug. 1
U.S. President Donald Trump Thursday
announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, starting Aug. 1, citing that Ottawa
had retaliated with tariffs against Washington.
“Instead of working with the United
States, Canada retaliated with its own Tariffs,” Trump said in his letter to
Mark Carney, prime minister of Canada, posted on Truth Social.
He attributed fentanyl as a reason for the
rate in the letter and said: “If Canada works with me to stop the flow of
Fentanyl, we will, perhaps, consider an adjustment to this letter.”
The 35% tariffs will be separate from all
sectoral tariffs, Trump said, threatening that the duty might be increased if
Canada continues to retaliate.
“If for any reason you decide to raise
your Tariffs, then, whatever the number you choose to raise them by, will be
added onto the 35% that we charge,” Trump said in the post.
Read the full story here.
Asia
stock markets today: live updates
Trump’s Warning Shot to Trade Partners
July 10, 2025 at 6:34 PM GMT+1
Donald Trump’s latest threat to
impose a 50%
levy on Brazil over its domestic political affairs shows the rest
of the world that nothing
is off limits.
The US president linked the hike
to the trial of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro — a right-wing
populist — over an
alleged coup attempt in 2022, in a letter posted on his Truth Social
account yesterday. It was the most extreme case yet of Trump weaponizing
trade policy to make unrelated demands. Brazil even sells fewer goods to the US
than it buys.
US equity futures retreated amid
uncertainty over the Trump administration’s trade policies, with S&P 500
contracts slipping 0.2%, even as stocks gained in Asia and Europe. —
Caroline Alexander
----OPEC+ is discussing a pause in further
production increases from October after its next monthly hike, we’re
told. Saudi Arabia and its partners have a tentative plan to complete the
revival of a 2.2 million-barrel supply revival in September, with another
monthly tranche of 550,000 barrels. While discussions need to be
finalized, the prospect of a halt whipsawed crude futures on Wednesday. Brent
futures were
down 0.9% at $69.57 a barrel.
----As Saudi Arabia spends trillions of
dollars to reshape its economy, a little-known investment group
overseen by the brother of de facto ruler Mohammed
bin Salman is emerging as a key power broker. Tharawat Holding,
run by Prince Turki bin Salman, has taken on a role as a
gatekeeper for foreign companies seeking to do business in Saudi
Arabia. The firm derives its name from the Arabic word for treasure or wealth,
and insiders say it oversees a web of assets worth at least $250 billion.
Trump’s
Warning Shot to Trade Partners - Bloomberg
Trump’s 50% Brazil tariff stretches emergency
powers already facing court challenge
Published Thu, Jul 10 2025 8:09 PM EDT
President Donald Trump’s politically
charged new tariff threat — a blanket 50% duty on imports from Brazil —
stretches an interpretation of his powers that is already facing a high-stakes
court challenge.
Trump said in a letter Wednesday that he
is imposing the massive new tariff at least partly in retaliation against
Brazil’s treatment of its former president, Jair Bolsonaro.
But to do so, he is citing a
law that only grants him emergency economic powers in order to deal
with certain foreign threats to the United States, a White House official told
CNBC Thursday.
That same law — the International
Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA — is at the center of an ongoing
lawsuit over Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs that is currently before a federal
appeals court.
Trump’s lawyers say his invocation of the
law to impose those tariffs was an appropriate move to address multiple
national emergencies, including “America’s exploding trade deficit.”
The White House did not immediately
respond to CNBC’s questions about Trump’s letter to Brazil, including how
Bolsonaro’s circumstances relate to Trump’s stated authority under IEEPA.
While the latest levy on Brazilian imports
may not have a direct impact on the lawsuit already underway, critics say it
could further erode the administration’s credibility as Trump pursues an
aggressive trade agenda.
Trump’s letter announcing the tariff on
Brazil “takes abuse of power to a whole new level,” said Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va.,
in a statement Thursday.
Kaine vowed to “use all available means to
block these latest job-killing tariffs.”
Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon, the top Democrat
on the Senate Finance Committee, accused Trump of attempting to “sacrifice the
economy to settle his own personal scores, and it is far outside his legal
authority.”
More
Trump
Brazil tariff cites same powers facing court challenge
Pentagon strikes investment deal with US critical
minerals producer
Unusual agreement follows growing concern
in Washington over Chinese dominance of crucial weapons materials
10 July 2025
The Pentagon is making a $400mn direct
investment in a US rare earths producer, in an unusual arrangement highlighting
the Trump administration’s determination to break Chinese dominance of critical
minerals and bolster domestic supply chains.
MP Materials, on Thursday said the
Pentagon would become its largest shareholder, taking a 15 per cent stake in
the company, as well as investing billions of dollars to build a 10,000 metric
tonne magnet manufacturing facility — expected to begin preparing for
operations in 2028.
“This initiative marks a decisive action
by the Trump administration to accelerate American supply chain independence,”
said James Litinsky, founder and chief executive of MP Materials.
---- It is rare for the US government to
make direct investments in businesses. It does so on occasion to support
development of technologies crucial to national interests, or in extreme
circumstances to save systemically important companies from failure, such as
Wall Street banks during the financial crisis.
MP Materials, based in Las Vegas, operates
the US’s only rare earth mine in Mountain Pass, California, extracting rare
earths such as neodymium and praseodymium, which are essential for making
weapons systems and electric vehicles.
Rare earth magnets are critical for
weapons systems including the F-35 Lightning II fighter jet, unmanned Predator
drones and the Virginia- and Columbia-class submarines. One F-35 needs 900
pounds of rare earths.
more
Pentagon
strikes investment deal with US critical minerals producer
In other news.
European Union in limbo as Washington keeps it
waiting on a trade agreement
Published Wed, Jul 9 2025 8:34 AM EDT
The European Union (EU) is stuck in limbo
as uncertainty persists around when a trade agreement with the U.S. might be
reached.
The goal had been to agree on a framework
by July 9, when a temporary reprieve from U.S. President Donald Trump’s
“reciprocal” tariffs was initially meant to expire. The EU was seemingly still
working to this timeline earlier in the week.
But that deadline has now passed — without
the trading partners coming to an agreement.
A framework may, however, still be
established as soon as this week, Trump himself suggested Tuesday.
“We’re probably two days off from sending
them a letter. We are talking to them,” he said, suggesting that a letter being
sent would mean a deal, or decision on tariffs, has been reached.
Trump said on social
media on Monday that letters had been sent to 14 countries outlining
new tariff rates.
Then, on Wednesday, he said at least seven
more countries had received letters outlining punitive duties, and announced
a 50% tariff on
Brazil partly
in retaliation against the current trial against former Brazilian President
Jair Bolsonaro for his role in an alleged attempt to overturn the country’s
2022 election results.
The EU has — so far — not received a
letter.
‘Treating us very nicely’
Trump has indicated that communication
between the EU and U.S. has improved.
“They treated us very badly until
recently, now they’re treating us very nicely. It’s like a different world,” he
told a Cabinet meeting at the White House on Wednesday. “They were among the
toughest to deal with.”
This marked a shift in tone from Trump,
who has often taken issue
with the trade relationship between Washington and Brussels, suggesting that is
unfair and unbalanced.
According to the European
Council,
trade between the EU and U.S. was valued at around 1.68 trillion euros ($1.97
trillion) when accounting for both goods and services in 2024. The EU recorded
a surplus when it comes to goods trading, but logged a deficit in the services
trade, leaving its overall trade surplus at around 50 billion euros last year.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick,
meanwhile, also suggested a deal was on the table.
“The European Union, to their credit, has
now made significant, real offers, meaning we’re going to take down our
barriers, we’re going to open our markets to American farmers, ranchers,
fishermen, really open their markets, and let Americans, finally American
entrepreneurial spirit finally get to sell to Europe,” he said, speaking to CNBC’s
“Power Lunch” on Tuesday.
“The president’s got those deals on his
desk and he’s thinking about how he wants to play them,” he added.
The EU is broadly expected to agree to a
10% baseline tariff, with the hope that it can negotiate some exemptions or
strike other deals on specific sectors. This would be sharply below the 50%
tariff Trump has previously called for.
More
EU in limbo as
Washington keeps it waiting on a trade agreement
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Greater
risk to UK economy following Trump tariffs, says Bank of England
9
July 2025
The
future of the UK economy is weaker and more uncertain due to President Trump's
tariffs and conflict in the Middle East, the Bank of England has said.
"The
outlook for UK growth over the coming year is a little weaker and more
uncertain," the central bank said in its biannual health check of the UK's
financial system.
Economic
and financial risks have increased since the last report was published in
November, as global unpredictability continued after the announcement of
country-specific tariffs on 2 April, the Bank's Financial Stability Report
said.
These
risks and uncertainty, as well as geopolitical tensions, like the wars in
Ukraine and the Middle East, are "particularly relevant" to UK
financial stability as an open economy with a large financial sector, it said.
Pressures
on government borrowing costs are "still elevated" amid significant
doubts over the global economic outlook.
Had
a 90-day pause on tariffs not been announced, conditions could have worsened,
the report added.
The
chance of prices rising overall has also grown as tensions between Iran and
Israel and the US threaten to push up energy prices.
Possible
higher inflation in turn raises the prospect of more expensive borrowing from
higher interest rates to bring down those price rises. This compounds the
pressure on state borrowing costs.
Mortgages
Borrowing
costs for about 40% of mortgage holders are set to become costlier over the
next three years as households refix to more expensive deals, affecting 3.6
million households, the Bank said.
Many
homes have not refixed their mortgage since interest rates began to rise in
2021, meaning the full impact of higher rates has yet to filter through.
Those
looking to get on the property ladder got a boost as the Bank said lenders
could issue more loans deemed to be risky, meaning people could be able to
borrow more.
Financial
institutions can now have 15% of their new mortgages deemed risky every year,
up from the current 9.7%.
Riskier
mortgages are those with a loan value above 4.5 times the borrower's income.
More
Greater risk to UK economy following Trump tariffs, says Bank of England
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Longi
unveils 34.58%-efficient tandem perovskite-silicon solar cell based on
asymmetric self-assembled monolayer
In a new scientific paper
published in nature, the Chinese manufacturer presented a new
tandem perovskite-silicon solar cell based on a bottom cell with a
heterojunction design. It also used a new type of self-assembled monolayer that
reportedly reduces non-radiative recombination and increases cell efficiency.
July 9, 2025 Emiliano Bellini
Chinese solar module
maker Longi has presented this week a new tandem
perovskite-silicon solar cell based on an asymmetric self-assembled monolayer
(SAM) aimed at reducing passivating defects and increasing efficiency.
SAMs are currently used as
state-of-the-art hole transport layers in perovskite-based solar cells,
offering low parasitic absorption, rapid charge extraction, and effective
passivation of the perovskite’s buried interface. However, controlling their
thickness, packing density, and orientation remains highly challenging.
The new tandem device was
developed in partnership with China's Soochow University and was described in the paper “Efficient perovskite/silicon tandem with
asymmetric self-assembly molecule,” which was recently published in nature.
“Different from most
reported carbazole-based SAMs, which feature a symmetric molecular
structure with nitrogen atoms bonded to phosphonic acid anchoring groups, we
constructed an asymmetric carbazole-based SAM that incorporates spacers and
anchoring phosphonic acid groups flanking the phenyl ring of the carbazole
core, serving as a hole-selective layer in perovskite-silicon solar cells,” a
spokesperson from Longi told pv magazine.
Dubbed HTL201, the new SAM
reportedly improves coverage and uniformity on textured silicon substrates
while optimizing interfacial energy level alignment. “Simultaneously, the
strong coordination interaction between HTL201 and the perovskite film effectively
reduces non-radiative recombination at the buried interface,” the spokesperson
added.
The SAM was designed with a
vertical configuration that purportedly offers optimal interaction with the
transparent conductive oxide (TCO) recombination layer, which in turn improves
the coverage on the TCO substrate. Furthermore, the energy level alignment
between HTL201 and the perovskite absorber was found to improve hole extraction
while reducing interfacial non-radiative recombination.
The research team built the
top perovskite cell with a silver (Ag) metal contact, a thin lithium fluoride
(LiF) layer and short-chain ethylenediammonium diiodide (EDAI) molecules.
Furthermore, it used an electron transport layer (ETL) made of thermally
evaporated buckminsterfullerene (C60), a tin oxide (SnO2) layer, a
transparent back contact made of indium zinc oxide (IZO), a perovskite
absorber, and the proposed SAM.
As for the bottom device,
Longi said it was a double-side-textured heterojunction silicon cell, without
providing further details or specifying if it utilized the 27.3%-efficient
heterojunction back contact (BC) solar cell it recently presented in another scientific paper published
in nature – “Silicon heterojunction back-contact solar cells by
laser patterning.”
Tested under standard
illumination conditions, a tandem solar cell built with this configuration and
an area of 1 cm2 achieved a power conversion efficiency of 34.58%, an
open-circuit voltage of 2.001 V, a short-circuit current density of 20.64
mA/cm2, and a fill factor of 83.79%.
More
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Another weekend and a US tariff war rapidly turning
bizarre and going berserk. What new trade violence will President Trump’s trade
war team think up this weekend? Have a great weekend everyone.
I do
not think it is an exaggeration to say history is largely a history of
inflation, usually inflations engineered by governments for the gain of
governments.
Friedrich August von Hayek
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