Baltic
Dry Index. 2052 +22 Brent Crude 69.36
Spot Gold 3358 US 2 Year Yield 3.88 -0.03
US Federal Debt. 37.129 trillion
US GDP 30.148 trillion.
A recession is when your neighbor loses his job. A depression is when you lose yours.
Ronald Reagan
We are now just 11 days out from the great global tariff disruption, assuming fickle President Trump doesn’t delay it yet again.
Dinosaur Graeme, thinks bad things will start
happening fast in the global economy in August and September if Trump’s tariff
war on the rest of the world takes effect on August 1st.
Aug. 1 is ‘hard deadline’ for Trump’s tariffs,
Commerce Secretary Lutnick says
Published Sun, Jul 20 2025 3:07 PM EDT
Commerce Secretary Howard
Lutnick said Sunday that Aug.
1 is the deadline for countries to begin paying tariffs to the United States, but said that
“nothing stops countries from talking to us after August 1.”
“That’s a hard deadline, so on August 1,
the new tariff rates will come in,” Lutnick said on CBS
News, when asked about the deadline for his tariffs
on the European Union.
President Donald Trump’s tariff
deadline has shifted since he announced his steep levies on trading partners
on April
2, but White House officials now maintain that Aug. 1 is a firm deadline.
“Nothing stops countries from talking to
us after August 1, but they’re going to start paying the tariffs on August 1,”
Lutnick said.
Lutnick said that some small countries,
“the Latin American countries, the Caribbean countries, many countries in
Africa,” would have a baseline tariff of 10%.
Lutnick’s comments could bring relief for
nations anxiously awaiting a definitive decision on tariff rates from Trump,
who recently suggested that baseline tariff rates for these nations could be
over 10%.
The president announced last week that
letters to smaller countries would be sent out soon. “We’ll probably set one
tariff for all of them ... probably a little over 10%,” Trump said.
Lutnick added that “the bigger economies
will either open themselves up or they’ll pay a fair tariff to America.”
More
Lutnick:
August 1 is hard deadline Trump tariffs
EU to Prepare Retaliation Plan as US Trade Stance
Hardens
Sun, July 20, 2025 at 4:22 PM GMT+1
(Bloomberg) -- European Union envoys are
set to meet as early as this week to formulate a plan for measures to respond
to a possible no-deal scenario with US President Donald Trump, whose tariff
negotiating position is seen to have stiffened ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline.
The overwhelming preference is to keep
negotiations with Washington on track in a bid for an outcome to the impasse
ahead of next month’s deadline.
Still, efforts have yet to yield sustained
progress following talks in Washington last week, according to people familiar
with the matter. Negotiations will continue over the next two weeks.
The US is now seen to want a
near-universal tariff on EU goods higher than 10%, with increasingly fewer
exemptions limited to aviation, some medical devices and generic medicines,
several spirits, and a specific set of manufacturing equipment that the US
needs, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private
deliberations.
A spokesperson for the European
Commission, which handles trade matters for the bloc, said they had no comment
to make on the ongoing negotiations.
The two sides have also discussed a
potential ceiling for some sectors, as well as quotas for steel and aluminum
and a way to ring-fence supply chains from sources that oversupply the metals,
the people said. The people cautioned that even if an agreement were reached it
would need Trump’s sign off – and his position isn’t clear.
More
EU
to Prepare Retaliation Plan as US Trade Stance Hardens
Asia markets trade mixed as investors assess China
rate decision
Updated Mon, Jul 21 2025 12:34 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Monday,
after the People’s Bank of China stood pat on its 1-year
and 5-year loan prime rates.
Investors were also assessing the latest
developments on the trade front, as they came into focus once again over the
weekend when the White House reiterated its position on tariffs.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick
Sunday called
Aug. 1 the “hard deadline” for countries to start paying tariffs,
although he also added that “nothing stops countries from talking to us after
August 1.”
Here are today’s highlights and a live
snapshot of how markets are faring:
- The Japanese
yen strengthened after the ruling party’s defeat in the upper
house elections
- China
keeps benchmark
lending rates steady as economic growth stays strong
- Singapore’s Straits Times Index hit
a fresh
high, extending its rally for the eleventh session
- India’s
regulator reportedly allows
U.S. trading firm Jane Street to resume trading
- The
pros expect bitcoin to
rally further
Asia
stock markets today: live updates
European markets set to start the week on a
negative note as tariff threat weighs
Updated Mon, Jul 21 2025 12:21 AM EDT
Good morning from London, and welcome to
CNBC’s live blog covering all the action and business news in European
financial markets on Monday.
Futures data from IG suggest a negative
start to the new trading week for European bourses, with London’s FTSE 100 seen opening 0.1%
lower, France’s CAC 40 down
0.3%, Germany’s DAX down
0.4%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB 0.35%
lower.
European markets have been on tenterhooks
since U.S. President Donald Trump announced earlier in July that he would
impose a 30% tariff on goods imported from the EU starting Aug. 1. The EU has
said it hopes to strike a trade deal before then but an agreement remains
elusive.
On Sunday, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard
Lutnick called
Aug. 1 the “hard deadline” for countries to start paying tariffs,
although he also added that “nothing stops countries from talking to us after
August 1.”
— Holly Ellyatt
European
markets on Mon July 21: Stoxx 600, FTSE, DAX, CAC
Stock futures are little changed as traders await
big tech earnings, eye trade developments: Live updates
Updated Sun, Jul 20 2025 6:16 PM EDT
U.S. stock futures were little changed
Sunday night as investors tracked the latest developments on trade, and awaited
the start of big tech earnings this week.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell
by 27 points, or 0.05%. S&P 500 futures slid 0.04%, while Nasdaq 100
futures dipped 0.03%.
Trade was once again in focus as the White
House reiterated its position on tariffs. On Sunday, U.S. Commerce Secretary
Howard Lutnick called
Aug. 1 the “hard deadline” for countries to start paying tariffs,
though he also added that “nothing stops countries from talking to us after
August 1.”
Wall Street is coming off a winning week
for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, both of which continued to notch all-time
highs. The S&P 500 ended the week higher by 0.6%, while the Nasdaq climbed
1.5%. The Dow ended the week slightly lower.
The moves come on the heels of a solid
start to earnings season. Of the 59 S&P 500 companies that have reported
thus far, more than 86% have topped expectations, according to FactSet data.
The major averages could receive a boost
in the week ahead if Alphabet and Tesla — the first of the
so-called Magnificent Seven companies set to report — manage to beat estimates.
The megacaps are expected to be a major driver of earnings growth during the
second-quarter earnings season. FactSet’s John Butters expects the Magnificent
Seven will post earnings growth of 14% in the second quarter, while the other
493 S&P 500 companies are seen posting growth of just 3.4%.
“We’re at an all time high for the
[S&P 500] right at the beginning of earnings season,” said Mark Malek,
investment chief at Siebert Financial, adding, “If we can get through this
earnings season with not too many major failures, I think that is really,
really important at this point, if we want to continue this upward momentum
that we have in the market.”
On the economic front, the June reading
for leading indicators, which are predictive metrics for the overall market and
economy, is scheduled for release on Monday at 10 a.m. ET.
Stock
market today: Live updates
Global week ahead: Banking bellwethers and a
tariffs waiting game
Published Sun, Jul 20 2025 1:38 AM EDT
Next week, the CNBC teams are back on the
road – and it’s all about the banks and the ECB. From Frankfurt to Milan, and
Paris to London, the financials are in focus.
Banking bellwethers
The markets seem to be banking on the
financial sector to keep up the positive earnings momentum this quarter. Citi
described the first quarter as “remarkably resilient,” with analysts now
expecting Stoxx 600 earnings-per-share
growth to turn positive year-on-year this quarter.
Much of that optimism is centered on the
big banks, while other sectors like luxury, autos and energy have been plagued
by earnings downgrades.
Unicredit kicks things
off on Wednesday. The Italian banking giant will try to keep investors focused
on the numbers, rather than its M&A ambitions. While its moves around Commerzbank have seen it
increase its equity stake to 20%, Saxo Bank analysts highlight the uncertainty
around its potential takeover of Banco BPM, after an Italian
court blocked the move until further conditions are met. The stock is up over
50% so far this year, providing some cheer for CEO Andrea Orcel as he battles
to keep his expansion plans on track.
French financial BNP Paribas — the euro
zone’s largest lender by assets — reports earnings on Thursday.
Last quarter, the bank soared past
expectations driven by performance at its investment bank, but revised its
profitability target slightly lower.
On the same day, attention will turn to
Frankfurt for Deutsche Bank’s latest set
of numbers. The German lender logged its best profit in 14 years last quarter,
benefiting from increased trading volumes around the market volatility. CEO
Christian Sewing told CNBC in June that he sees an opportunity for Europe to
invest more in its own defense sector as a key growth area.
The waiting game
For macro-watchers, the highlight of the
week in Europe will come from the European Central Bank. President Christine
Lagarde and her fellow policymakers are expected to keep rates on hold at 2% on
Thursday. But there is a BIG catch…
U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff
threats are not expected to derail this meeting’s outcome, according to
Reuters, citing five ECB governing council member sources. But if Trump does
push ahead with 30% tariffs on EU imports, there is a broad assumption the ECB
will cut rates in response.
Investors will have until Sept. 11 to
assess the impact, as the ECB breaks for the summer after this week’s meeting.
Inflation situation
In terms of the underlying economic
conditions, Deutsche Bank warns that European inflation risks are “still being
underestimated, with a remarkable complacency across key assets,” with the
tariff impact yet to fully trickle through.
The bank’s macro strategist also told
CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe that the Aug. 1 tariff deadline for negotiations
between the U.S. and EU sets the stage for a late outcome to trigger a “very
sharp market reaction.”
Global week ahead:
Banking bellwethers and a tariffs waiting game
In other news, sadly, a four year, lame duck, 79 year old President, has declared tariff war on the rest of the world. 350 million Americans v 7.6 billion rest of the world. So far, we are only in the phony war stage of the tariff wars as they slowly start to come in.
Once unemployment starts rising in the rest
of the world and America, things will turn ugly against President Trump, and
unfortunately America, quite fast.
Trump’s threats to fire the Fed chair and raise
tariffs will decimate the dollar
19 July 2025
Understanding what motivates normal
politicians to follow bad economic advice is difficult enough. Are they paying
off some special interest, or do they really believe that two plus two equals
three? With Donald Trump, the difficulty of interpreting the motivation for his
policies sometimes goes to a whole different level.
Does he understand that if he fires
Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, the Fed will lose anti-inflation
credibility and the general level of interest rates will rise, not fall? Does
he really believe that Team Trump can design regulation that makes the crypto
sector grow to the moon – bitcoin hit $120,000 (£89,000) last week – without
causing another financial crisis?
Tariffs are another dubious idea, with
countries being threatened if they do not agree to a “deal” by 1 August. Any
country that believes that by bending over it will secure lasting peace is
kidding itself. Trump is having fun brandishing tariffs and, while he might
pause, he is not going to stop. Besides, he and his acolytes see the tariff
weapon as a way to exercise power the United States has always had but never
exploited. Trump is not just looking to use tariffs as an economic tool. He
sees them as a bludgeon that can be used to impose his will on almost any
country on almost any issue.
Over the long run, Trump’s retreat from
globalisation, combined with his tariff fetishism, are likely to lower US
growth while raising interest rates and inflation. It might be a winning
strategy for Trump personally by making him the centre of attention, but it is
not a winning strategy for the US economy.
And none of this, imposing tariffs,
promoting crypto, or attacking the Fed, can be good for the US dollar, the
world’s reserve currency, which has already plummeted sharply in value this
year.
The centrality of the dollar, which is the
lingua franca of global trade and finance, has long helped the Americans to
enjoy substantially lower interest rates than they would otherwise be paying,
perhaps 0.5% to 1% lower. This applies not only to government borrowing but to
private mortgages, car loans and business loans.
Trump sees tariffs as a bludgeon that can
be used to impose his will on almostany country on almost any issue
The savings amount to hundreds of billions
of dollars a year, at a minimum. The dollar gives the US the ability to use
financial sanctions in lieu of military intervention, and also gives the US a
treasure trove of information on both friends and enemies alike.
Dollar dominance was fraying at the edges
even before Trump, especially with the Chinese yuan gradually decoupling its
dollar peg, and Chinese authorities developing their own international
settlement systems. Europe has also been looking to expand the footprint of the
euro. Now, however, with attacks against the Fed, the tariff war, and general
undermining of the rule of law, what was going to be a gradual decline in the
dollar’s influence will surely accelerate.
The dollar is not going to disappear, but
its position could become significantly less dominant over the next decade,
with the Chinese yuan becoming more important in Asia, and the euro taking back
some of the global influence it lost after the European debt crisis. The
dollar’s loss will also be crypto’s gain, especially in the global underground
economy,
Trump’s rejection of globalisation, and
his embrace of chaotic policies, is mostly a lose-lose situation for the US
economy that will result in more inflation volatility, higher interest rates,
and a spate of financial crises, including in crypto, and possibly surrounding
government debt. What will Trump conjure up to distract everyone if the economy
turns sour?
Kenneth Rogoff is Professor of Economics
at Harvard University and author of Our Dollar, Your Problem: An
Insider’s View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance, and the Road Ahead
Trump’s threats to
fire the Fed chair and raise tariffs will decimate the dollar
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Here's
when a top economist says the US will see the most damage from Trump's tariffs
Fri,
July 18, 2025 at 11:47 PM GMT+1
Apollo's
chief economist says the most damage from Donald
Trump's trade war will
be felt in the economy sometime around the end of the year.
Torsten
Sløk said he thinks that the sweeping tariffs the
president announced this year will push prices higher until inflation reaches a
peak in November or December.
Speaking
to Bloomberg this week, Sløk pointed to consensus inflation expectations, which
show inflation rising
through the last two months of the year.
Inflation,
meanwhile, is already starting to "lift-off" in consumer goods, he
said. The latest consumer
price index report
showed that prices for durables grew 0.7% year-over-year in June, the
second-straight month of growth after more than two years of annualized
declines. The headline number also drifted higher, hitting 2.7%, from 2.4% in
May.
Services
inflation, which accounts for 60% of the CPI, will likely take off soon as
well, Sløk said. He pointed to the impact of Trump's
mass deportations on
wage growth, which raises employment costs for businesses and can cause prices
to rise as well.
"They
need to wait to see the peak. And we have really only had the take-off
stage," he said of the Fed and inflation
Hotter
inflation spells bad news on two fronts, Sløk said:
·
The Fed is unlikely to cut
interest rates. Central bankers
will want to assess the peak damage from Trump's tariffs before loosening
monetary policy more meaningfully, he said.
·
It could be the start of a stagflation shock. In a
previous note to clients, Sløk said he believed the US was already beginning to
see a stagflation
shock,
a situation where inflation rises while economic growth slows. Economists have
described stagflation as one of the worst-case scenarios for the economy, as
the Fed can't cut rates to boost economic growth without fanning inflation.
Stagflation could cause
GDP growth in 2025 could more than halve from its peak last year, Sløk
estimated in a recent whitepaper. Inflation could also remain around 3%
throughout 2025, while the unemployment rate could rise over the next two
years, he predicted, based on where tariffs stood in June.
Here's when a top
economist says the US will see the most damage from Trump's tariffs
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Pfizer's COVID-19 Vaccine May Lead to Serious Eye Damage, New Study
Reveals
20 July 2025
A new Turkish study has
raised concerns that Pfizer-BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine may have subtle but
serious side effects on the cornea. The research examined changes in the
corneas of at least 64 patients before and after receiving both doses of the
vaccine.
According to the
scientists involved in the study published in the journal Ophthalmic
Epidemiology, even though no immediate vision loss was reported, the vaccine
led to thicker corneas, a reduced number of endothelial cells, and structural
changes that could affect eye health over time.
The Daily Mail reported the changes in the eyes suggest the Pfizer
vaccine may temporarily weaken the endothelium, even though patients did not
suffer clear vision issues when the study was being conducted. Scientists said
that for those with healthy eyes, these small changes likely may not affect
vision right away. However, they may lead to corneal swelling or blurry vision,
especially in those with pre-existing eye issues or those who have had a
corneal transplant.
Researchers found that
the average thickness of the cornea increased from 528 to 542 micrometres after
two Pfizer doses, which is around a rise of 2 per cent. The endothelial cell
count, which is responsible for keeping the cornea clear, dropped by about 8
per cent, from 2,597 to 2,378 cells per square millimetre.
Scientists urge caution
According to the study,
which analysed the eye health with the help of Sirius corneal topography and
Tomey EM-4000 specular microscopy, there is no need to halt the vaccination
efforts. Scientists have rather called for ongoing monitoring of corneal health
in those who already battle vulnerabilities in their eyes.
The researchers have also
emphasised that the changes observed can be temporary responses to stress or
inflammation that may resolve over time. Still, they warned that “the
endothelium should be closely monitored in those with a low endothelial count
or who have had a corneal graft”, especially if future studies confirm
long-term damage.
More
Pfizer's COVID-19 Vaccine May Lead to Serious Eye Damage, New Study
Reveals
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Almond Shell Waste Powers Sustainable Graphene-Based Sensors
18 July 2025
Scientists have developed biodegradable sensors from waste almond
shells, offering a sustainable alternative to conventional electronics for
environmental and agricultural monitoring.
In a recent study published in Advanced
Functional Materials, researchers have unveiled a novel way to
turn discarded almond shells into flexible, graphene-based sensors.
Why Almond Shells?
Laser-induced graphene (LIG) is a promising material for sensors
and circuits, typically made by laser-scribing carbon-rich plastics like
polyimide. But, as research aims to better contribute to eco-friendly
science, researchers are looking at biomass-derived alternatives.
Cellulose-based materials, such as wood, paper, and crop
byproducts, have already shown potential as eco-friendly LIG sources. Almond
shells stand out thanks to their high lignocellulose content, abundance, and
low cost.
Related Stories
This study investigated their potential as biodegradable,
laser-scribed electronics. The scientists aimed to produce materials
that are not only conductive but also strong, flexible, and degrade
naturally in soil.
Turning Shells into Sensors
The team started by grinding hard and soft-shell almond cultivars
into a fine powder, less than 50 micrometres in size. They tested the
cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin content to pick the most promising
variety.
The resulting powder was blended with biopolymers (such as
chitosan, glycerol, and acetic acid) after chemically
removing impurities. This created a uniform dispersion, which was
cast into thin, flexible films between 0.3 and 1.2 millimetres thick.
These films were then laser-scribed to form conductive graphene
directly on their surface. The researchers adjusted the laser’s wavelength,
power, and scan speed to create porous, interconnected carbon networks.
The team used Raman spectroscopy, scanning electron
microscopy (SEM), and micro-CT imaging to check the consistency and
morphological structure of the films.
The electrical conductivity of the laser-treated areas was
measured by sheet resistance. Soil burial tests over 90 days confirmed that the
materials degraded naturally, while mechanical tests showed the films remained
strong and flexible enough for practical use.
The team then built simple resistive sensors and humidity
detectors on the films to test their viability. They monitored their responses
to environmental changes through impedance and resistance measurements.
More
Almond Shell Waste
Powers Sustainable Graphene-Based Sensors
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
In the
Great Depression in which I grew up and remember vividly, unemployment was over
25 percent, and over 35 percent where I lived. A grown man would work all day,
16 hours, for a dollar. I remember hundreds of people walking by, people who
had come down from the North just to get warm. They would come to our house as
beggars even though they might have a college education. People didn't have
money. They bartered; they'd trade eggs or pigs. It was just completely
different.
Jimmy Carter
