Baltic
Dry Index. 1489 -32 Brent Crude 66.42
Spot Gold 3328 US 2 Year Yield 3.72 -0.01
US Federal Debt. 37.046 trillion
US GDP 30.106 trillion.
If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there'd be a shortage of sand.
Milton Friedman
Dress up Monday over, the stock casinos on the moon are about to run into Trump Tariff Wednesday, July 9th.
TACO July 9th or tariff war July 9th?
We are all about to find out.
Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed as investors
assess gains on Wall Street and Trump’s tariff plans
Updated Tue, Jul 1 2025 12:01 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Tuesday
as investors assessed the record gains on Wall Street and the global impact of
U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies as his 90-day
tariff reprieve is set to expire next week.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said
on Monday that there are “countries
that are negotiating in good faith.” However, he added that tariffs could
still “spring back” to the levels
announced on April 2 “if we can’t get across the line because they are
being recalcitrant.”
Mainland China’s CSI 300 was last seen flat. The
Asian giant’s Caixin/S&P
Global manufacturing purchasing manager’s index reading for June came
in at 50.4, higher than the 49 predicted by analysts polled by Reuters.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 benchmark fell 1%
after hitting
an over 11-month high in its previous session, while the broader Topix
index declined by 0.8%.
In South Korea, the Kospi index rose 1.41%,
while the small-cap Kosdaq added 0.65%.
Over in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was flat.
Meanwhile, India’s benchmark Nifty 50 added 0.21%, while
the BSE Sensex was flat.
Hong Kong markets are closed for a public
holiday.
U.S.
stock futures ticked down in early Asian hours after two of the three
key benchmarks on Wall Street notched another record close in Monday’s session.
Overnight
stateside, the broad-based S&P 500 index gained
0.52% and ended at 6,204.95 while the Nasdaq Composite advanced
0.47% and also reached fresh all-time highs, at 20,369.73. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed
275.50 points, or 0.63%, settling at 44,094.77.
Monday’s rise comes as Canada rescinded
its digital service tax in an effort to facilitate trade negotiations
with the U.S. That’s after President Donald Trump said last Friday that the
U.S. was “terminating
ALL discussions on Trade with Canada.” Initial payments on the tax
were set to begin Monday and would have applied to companies such as Google,
Meta and Amazon.
Asia
stock markets today: live updates
European stocks to open flat to higher as
investors survey the trade talks, tariff landscape
Updated Tue, Jul 1 2025 12:44 AM EDT
Welcome to CNBC’s live blog covering all
the action in European financial markets on Tuesday, as well as the latest
regional and global business news, data and earnings.
Futures data from IG suggests a generally
positive start for European markets, with London’s FTSE looking set to open
unchanged at 8,774, Germany’s DAX up
0.2% at 23,955, France’s CAC
40 up a notch at 7,679 and Italy’s FTSE MIB up slightly at
39,865.
The generally positive start for Europe
comes as global investors begin to assess the trade talks and the tariff
landscape as U.S. President Donald Trump’s 90-day reprieve from higher import
duties is set to expire next week.
Asia-Pacific
markets traded mixed overnight as investors assessed the record gains
on Wall Street and the prospects for trade deals, while U.S. equity futures
were little changed early Tuesday after the S&P 500 notched another
record to close out a stunning quarter.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said
Monday that there are “countries
that are negotiating in good faith.” However, he added that tariffs could
still “spring back” to the levels
announced on April 2 “if we can’t get across the line because they are
being recalcitrant.”
Canada walked
back its digital services tax in an attempt to facilitate trade
negotiations with the United States. Ottawa’s move to rescind the new levy
comes after President Donald Trump said on
Friday that he would be “terminating ALL discussions on Trade with
Canada.”
European
markets on July 1: Stoxx 600, FTSE, DAX, tariff deadline
In other news.
Musk shreds Trump’s tax bill as ‘DEBT SLAVERY,’
vows to unseat Republicans who back it
Published Mon, Jun 30 2025 4:38 PM EDT Updated
Mon, Jun 30 2025 5:54 PM EDT
He may have stopped openly feuding with
President Donald Trump,
but Elon Musk isn’t
backing off his bid to kill Trump’s signature megabill.
The Tesla and SpaceX CEO unloaded
Monday on the massive tax-and-spending legislation that Trump is pushing
Republicans to quickly ram through Congress, labeling it a “DEBT SLAVERY bill”
and calling out its supporters by name.
The uber-rich Musk — who spent
around $290 million backing Trump and other Republicans in
the 2024 election cycle and beyond — called for a “new political party.”
He even vowed that any fiscal
conservatives who vote for the bill will face his wrath in their next primary
races.
“Every member of Congress who campaigned
on reducing government spending and then immediately voted for the biggest debt
increase in history should hang their head in shame!” Musk wrote in a series of
posts on his social media site, X.
“And they will lose their primary next
year if it is the last thing I do on this Earth,” he added.
Musk’s latest tirade came as the voting is
underway in the Senate on dozens of amendments to the massive bill, as part of
the complicated reconciliation process that enables the GOP to pass it without
Democratic support.
If the Senate passes the revised version
of the bill, it must return to the House for a final vote before heading to
Trump’s desk to be signed into law.
Musk’s threats to unseat Republican
backers of the bill could carry more weight in the House than they do in the
Senate.
All House members face primary and general
elections every two years, while senators have six-year terms and staggered
elections.
The House elections are held in members’
congressional districts, rather than in statewide races, which means that a
large injection of campaign cash toward a primary challenger’s campaign could
make a bigger impact.
More
Musk
rips Trump big beautiful tax bill, vows to defeat GOP backers
Disposable
income per head slumps despite economic growth
Updated: Monday 30
June 2025 8:25 am
The
Office for National Statistics left growth figures for the UK economy at 0.7
per cent in the first three months of the
year unrevised on Monday.
Official
data from the ONS showed quarter one’s growth was led by a 1.3 per cent
increase in the production sector. Services and construction jumped 0.7 per
cent and 0.3 per cent respectively.
The
ONS said, despite headline figures remaining unchanged, the economy “still grew
strongly” in February, as well as “growth coming in a little higher in March
too”.
But
the revised data follow
April’s growth figures, which revealed the economy shrank beyond analysts’
expectations.
The
ONS revealed a 0.3 per cent contraction in the UK economy in April. City
analysts had expected GDP to contract 0.1 per cent, according to a Bloomberg
poll.
The
first three months of the year benefited from rising production ahead of Rachel
Reeves’ tax rises in April and the threat of Donald Trump’s tariffs.
“There
was broad based growth across services, while manufacturing had a strong
quarter,” Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS, said.
Reeves’
tax raid weighs on growth
But
the bleak figures from April marked a blow to the Chancellor’s growth agenda,
which she has banked much of her political reputation on.
Reeves
has made delivering growth “further and faster” a central mission, with key
reforms across planning and energy, as well as her upcoming financial services
strategy, where she plans to outline how the sector can steer economic
prosperity.
But
economists have found the Chancellor’s own policies, namely her £20bn tax raid
on employers in the Autumn Budget, helped burden firms with extra costs and
squeeze profits.
Thomas
Pugh, chief economist at RSM UK, said: “The big question now is whether
the recent string of weak data in retail sales and employment is a one-off, due
to the initial shock of tax increases and tariffs, or whether it’s the start of
a new trend.”
Retail
sales suffered their largest fall in 18 months after data showed a 2.7 per cent
drop in May, economists had only expected a 0.5 per cent slump.
The
Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the UK’s fiscal watchdog, expects the
UK growth to be one per cent for the year.
More
Disposable income
per head slumps despite economic growth
Heat Wave Triggers Health Alerts in Europe
June 30, 2025 at 5:00 PM GMT+1
The heat wave searing western Europe is
set to peak in the coming days, threatening power networks and triggering
health alerts. A high-pressure system combined with a stream of super-hot air
from North Africa and abnormally warm oceans is baking the region from Portugal
to the UK.
Spain set a June heat record of 46C
(114.8F) near El Granado in the south of the country, according to preliminary
data. Amber health alerts have been issued for large parts of
England, including
London, where temperatures could reach 34C on Tuesday, according to
the UK Met Office. Heat warnings are also in place for much of
France, with peaks above 40C through Wednesday.
Power prices across Europe are surging
as the
heat drives up cooling demand, while forcing some nuclear reactors to curb
generation. French day-ahead prices climbed to a three-month high in recent
days, while UK day-ahead prices hit the highest since March. — Jennifer
Duggan
Heat
Wave Triggers Health Alerts in Europe - Bloomberg
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
German
inflation unexpectedly falls to 2% in June, hitting ECB’s target
Published
Mon, Jun 30 2025 8:07 AM EDT
Germany’s
annual inflation rate unexpectedly eased to 2% in June, bringing Europe’s
largest economy in line with the European Central Bank’s target, preliminary
data from statistics office Destatis showed Monday.
Analysts
polled by Reuters had expected a reading of 2.2% in the twelve months to June.
The
German print is harmonized across the euro zone, allowing for a direct
comparison with other single currency states. The consumer price index had eased to 2.1%
in the year to May.
Elsewhere
in Europe, June inflation readings showed a small rise in the harmonized rate
of France and Spain, but no change in Italy.
Franziska
Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, said the latest inflation
data would please the ECB, which is expected to cut rates one more time in this
cycle.
“Overall,
the figures add to the evidence that inflation in the euro-zone has sustainably
returned to the target. Barring a renewed surge in energy prices we expect the
headline rate to average 2.0% this year and the ECB to make one final rate cut
in September, taking the deposit rate to 1.75%,” she said in emailed comments.
Euro
zone inflation data is due on Tuesday, with the headline rate expected to come
in at 2% in June, according to analysts polled by Reuters.
Hold
the champagne?
While
the German data might comfort the ECB that its job to bring the inflation rate
back toward the 2% target “is mostly done,” external factors could still
upset the disinflation trajectory, according to Carsten Brzeski, global head of
Macro at ING.
“Despite
the celebrations at the ECB, let’s not forget that disinflation in the euro
zone has been largely driven by external factors and lately, by President
Trump,” he noted in emailed comment, citing falling oil prices and a stronger
euro as important drivers of the trend lower.
Service
inflation, however, remains elevated “at levels not seen since the mid-1990s
before the pandemic,” Brzeski noted, and is only expected to dip below 3% next
year.
“This
persistent pressure should temper any premature celebrations at the ECB,” he
said.
More
German inflation
unexpectedly falls to 2% in June, hitting ECB's target
World
economy faces 'pivotal moment', central bank body BIS says
Updated
/ Monday, 30 Jun 2025 07:09
Trade
tensions and fractious geopolitics risk exposing deep fault lines in the global
financial system, central bank umbrella body the Bank for International
Settlements, said in its latest assessment of the state of the world economy.
Outgoing
head of the BIS, often dubbed the central bankers' central bank, AgustÃn
Carstens, said the US-driven trade war and other policy shifts were fraying the
long-established economic order.
He
said the global economy was at a "pivotal moment", entering a
"new era of heightened uncertainty and unpredictability", which was
testing public trust in institutions, including central banks.
The
bank's report is published just over a week before US President Donald Trump's
trade tariff deadline of July 9 and comes after six months of intense
geopolitical upheaval.
When
asked about Trump's criticisms of US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, which have
included Trump labelling the Fed chair as "stupid", he was not overly
critical.
"It
is to be expected at certain points in time that there will be friction,"
former Mexican central bank governor Carstens told reporters, referring to the
relationship between governments and central banks. "It is almost by
design".
The
BIS' annual report, published yesterday, is viewed as an important gauge of
central bankers' thinking given the Switzerland-based forum's regular meetings
of top policymakers.
Rising
protectionism and trade fragmentation were "particular concerning" as
they were exacerbating the already decades-long decline in economic and
productivity growth, Carstens said.
There
is also evidence that the world economy is becoming less resilient to shocks,
with population ageing, climate change, geopolitics and supply chain issues all
contributing to a more volatile environment.
The
post-Covid spike in inflation seems to have had a lasting impact on the
public's perception about price moves too, a study in the report showed.
High
and rising public debt levels are increasing the financial system's
vulnerability to interest rates and reducing governments' ability to spend
their way out of crises.
Wall
Street extended its rally on Friday, sending the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to
all-time closing highs - with each adding 0.5% - while the Dow climbed 1%
higher.
"This
trend cannot continue," Carstens said referring to the rising debt levels
and he said that higher military spending could push the debt up further.
More
World economy
faces 'pivotal moment' -BIS
4
Signs Stagflation Could Be Coming in 2025
Sun
29 June 2025 at 9:01 pm BST
---- Some economic
experts think that stagflation in the U.S. is on the horizon. Why? What signs
indicate stagflation is coming and what
can you do to financially prepare for it?
Slowing
GDP Growth
A
slowing GDP (gross domestic product) growth — when the economy’s output starts
to decline or contract — is a big
red flag warning of stagflation. And that flag was waved earlier this
year. GDP decreased at an annual rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025
(January, February and March), according to the advance estimate released by
the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis [2].
“The
Federal Reserve now projects real GDP growth at 1.4% for 2025, down from 1.7%
in its March projection,” said Alex Tsepaev, CSO at B2PRIME Group. “The OECD and
World Bank have also downgraded U.S. growth expectations due to trade tensions
and policy uncertainty. Additionally, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic
Index (LEI) declined again in May, marking a 2.7% drop over the past six
months, which is approaching recessionary territory.”
Sticky
Inflation
Back
to the word so closely tied to “stagflation” — inflation. A key sign of
stagflation is persistent inflation. This is also called “sticky inflation,”
and we see it hover around essentials like food and fuel.
“These
categories are less sensitive to interest rate hikes, which makes them
persistently expensive,” said Dane May, principal and co-founder at DePaolo & May Strategic Wealth. “These are
non-discretionary expenses that strain household budgets. When consumers are
forced to spend more on essentials, they cut back elsewhere. That slows
economic growth and makes inflation more painful because it’s tied to
necessities rather than luxury or optional spending.”
Weakening
Labor Market
Another key
warning sign of
stagflation is a weakening labor market. With this, we see a decrease in job
openings, layoffs and rising unemployment rates. Right now, the labor market is
showing signs of weakening.
“Recent
jobs data has consistently missed economists’ expectations,” said Jake Falcon,
CRPC, CEO at Falcon
Wealth Advisors.
“Employers added far fewer jobs in February than in January, and unemployment
claims have risen. This softening labor market is a classic precursor to
economic stagnation.”
Falling
Consumer Sentiment
Next
comes falling consumer sentiment, which, yes, we’re also seeing right now in
the U.S. as people pull the reins on spending.
“Concerned
by the inflationary outcome of the ongoing tariff war, people begin to feel
pessimistic about the economy, which leads to reduced spending and investment,”
Tsepaev said. “Indeed, retail sales fell 0.9% in May, worse than expected,
as consumers reduced their purchases of big-ticket items, such as cars and
other luxuries. Likewise, companies become cautious about expanding due to
uncertainty or rising costs.”
More
4 Signs
Stagflation Could Be Coming in 2025
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
1.1
Million Anker Powerbanks Recall Issued Over Fear Of Overheating, Explosion:
Here's How To Get A Replacement
30 June 2025
Anker has issued an urgent recall of over 1.1
million portable power banks over concerns they may overheat, catch fire, or
even explode. The recall affects the widely sold Anker PowerCore 10000 (model
number A1263), a compact charging device that was available between June 2016
and December 2022.
Although the recall originates from the United
States, many UK consumers who purchased the device online through platforms
like Amazon and eBay
are likely to be impacted.
Which Anker Power Bank Is Being Recalled?
The recall specifically
targets the PowerCore 10000, model A1263, manufactured between January 2016 and
October 2019. This particular model has been a popular choice for travellers
and everyday users due to its size and reliability. However, Anker has confirmed
that a manufacturing issue may cause the battery to overheat, presenting a
significant safety risk. The product was sold through several major online
retailers, including Anker's own website, Amazon, eBay, and Newegg. Customers
are urged to check the model number printed on the back of the device and
verify it through Anker's official recall page.
Why Was the Anker Power Bank Recalled?
According to a joint
announcement with the US Consumer Product Safety
Commission (CPSC), the recall follows at least
19 reported incidents involving fires and explosions related to the battery
issue. These included two cases of minor burn injuries and 11 instances of
property damage.
The problem has been traced to the power bank's
lithium-ion battery, which can overheat after extended use or age-related wear.
While no UK-specific recall has yet been issued, British customers are advised
to take the same precautions if they own the affected model, especially if it
was purchased through global or third-party online sellers.
More
DR Power Recalls 13,200 LiPRO Lithium-Ion Battery Packs
June 29, 2025
More than 10,000 lithium-ion battery
packs for outdoor equipment are being recalled due to a fire and burn
hazard, officials said.
DR Power has recalled about
13,200 LiPRO rechargeable lithium-ion battery packs, the Consumer
Product Safety Commission announced on Thursday, June 27. Regulators said the
62-volt, 5.0-ampere-hour rechargeable batteries can short-circuit and ignite.
DR Power has received two reports of the
batteries overheating or catching fire, but no injuries have been reported,
according to the CPSC. The
recall includes battery packs sold on their own, as well as those packaged with
outdoor equipment like lawnmowers, trimmers, and snow throwers.
The products were sold from April 2018
to July 2024 for $250 individually and between $300 and $700 when included with
equipment. They were available at home improvement and hardware stores
nationwide, as well as online at DRPower.com and CountryHomeProducts.com.
Customers are urged to stop using
the recalled batteries immediately. DR Power is offering a pro-rated refund
based on the battery's age.
Owners must show proof of
destruction by uploading two photos following the instructions on DR Power's website.
The battery packs were made in China by
Ningbo New Team Import & Export Company. They were imported by Generac
Power Systems of Waukesha, Wisconsin.
More
DR Power Recalls 13,200 LiPRO Lithium-Ion Battery Packs
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
The
government solution to a problem is usually as bad as the problem.
Milton Friedman
