Monday, 2 June 2025

Trade Wars Escalate. US Jobs Week. Powell Speech Today.

Baltic Dry Index. 1418 +65             Brent Crude 64.36

Spot Gold 3315                   US 2 Year Yield 3.89 -0.03  

US Federal Debt. 36.925 trillion  US GDP 30.045 trillion.

I've dealt with politicians my entire life. You never make a bad deal with a politician. They're so easy.

Donald Trump

In doubling his 25 percent tariff on imported steel and aluminium from June 4th, President Trump broke his own 90 day truce in the tariff wars, provoking likely retaliation from the EU and China.

The road back to the 1930s just got a lot shorter.

Fifty percent tariffs on steel and aluminium will impact US auto prices and US beer sold in cans.

Later today in the District of Crooks, Fed Chairman Powell gets to set out his take on the latest developments in the tariff wars.

On Friday, the Bureau of Lying Labor Statistics publish the US jobs report for May.

All in all, an interesting summer week.

Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed after Trump says he plans to double steel tariffs to 50%

Updated Mon, Jun 2 2025 11:51 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed after President Donald Trump told U.S. steelworkers late Friday that he will double tariffs on steel imports to 50%, effective from Wednesday.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 fell 0.89% and the Topix declined 0.65% at the open. South Korea’s Kospi added 0.16% while the small-cap Kosdaq traded flat.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was also unchanged at the open.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index declined 1.66%.

China, Malaysia and New Zealand markets are closed for the holidays.

“We’re going to bring it from 25% to 50%, the tariffs on steel into the United States of America,” Trump said during remarks at U.S. Steel’s Irvin Works in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania, adding that the steep tariffs would “further secure the steel industry.”

Trump also posted on Truth Social that the steel tariffs will start on June 4.

U.S. stock futures fell as Wall Street looks to the start of a new month of trading following a strong performance in May. S&P 500 futures traded down 0.3%, along with Nasdaq-100 futuresFutures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average also declined 108 points, or 0.3%.

Last Friday, the three major averages closed mixed. The S&P 500 was little changed on Friday to close out a big winning month, inching down by 0.01% to end at 5,911.69. The Nasdaq Composite slid 0.32% to 19,113.77, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 54.34 points, or 0.13%, to finish at 42,270.07.

Asia-Pacific markets live: Trump steel tariffs, Indonesia inflation

EU ‘prepared to impose countermeasures’ after Trump doubles steel tariffs to 50%

Published Sat, May 31 2025 11:03 AM EDT Updated Sat, May 31 2025 12:11 PM EDT

The European Union on Saturday criticized President Donald Trump’s move to double tariffs on steel imports, warning that it “undermines” efforts to reach a “negotiated solution” in the ongoing trade war.

“We strongly regret the announced increase of U.S. tariffs on steel imports from 25% to 50%,” an EU spokesperson said in a statement to NBC News.

“This decision adds further uncertainty to the global economy and increases costs for consumers and businesses on both sides of the Atlantic,” the spokesperson continued.

The spokesperson added that the EU is “prepared to impose countermeasures, including in response to the latest U.S. tariff increase.”

The United Steelworkers union (USW) also criticized Trump’s announcement and said it is a “direct attack on Canadian industries and workers.”

“Thousands of Canadian jobs are on the line and communities that rely on steel and aluminum are being put at risk,” Marty Warren, United Steelworkers National Director for Canada, said in a statement.

“Canada needs to respond immediately and decisively to defend workers.”

Trump on Friday announced that he planned on doubling tariffs on steel imports to 50% from 25%, increasing the pressure on manufacturers dependent on industrial metals for production.

The new import duties are set to go into effect June 4.

----The EU, which said that it had paused its countermeasures against the U.S. on April 14 “to allow time and space” for negotiations, said it is prepared to instate those measures “if no mutually acceptable solution is reached.”

“The European Commission is currently finalizing consultations on expanded countermeasures,” the spokesperson said. “If no mutually acceptable solution is reached, both existing and additional EU measures will automatically take effect on 14 July — or earlier, if circumstances require.”

More

EU responds Trump raising steel tariffs to 50%

China counters Trump’s accusations of Geneva deal violations, says U.S. undermining consensus

Published Sun, Jun 1 2025 11:00 PM EDT

China on Monday refuted Washington’s claims that it had broken the Geneva trade agreement, instead accusing the U.S. for breaching deal terms, signaling talks between the worlds top two economies have taken a turn for the worse.

Trade frictions between Washington and Beijing have flared up after a hiatus following a meeting between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and his Chinese counterpart He Lifeng in Geneva, Switzerland, that had led them to suspend most tariffs for 90 days.

The Trump administration has ratcheted up export restrictions on semiconductor design software and chemicals to China, while announcing it would revoke visas for Chinese students, drawing ire from Beijing.

Those steps “seriously undermine” the deal reached in Geneva, a Chinese commerce department spokesperson said, while vowing that Beijing would take measures to safeguard its rights and benefits, if the U.S. presses ahead with actions that “damage China’s interests.”

China has kept a firm grip on its rare earths exports, contrary to Washington’s expectations. Chinese state media in an article Monday touted coordinated efforts across the nation on scrutinizing and curbing illicit mining and exporting of critical minerals.

Beijing is “comfortable taking an extremely firm stance in these negotiations” and “sees no reason to roll over,” said Stephen Olson, visiting senior fellow at Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.

“It is well understood in Beijing that any deal reached with the U.S. will only buy some short-term peace, not the end of the story,” Olson added, citing Trump’s tendency to disregard any agreements he has signed.

The U.S. government has continued to “unilaterally provoke new economic and trade frictions, increasing the uncertainty and instability in the bilateral economic and trade relations,” the Chinese spokesperson said.

Last Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump accused China of violating its preliminary trade agreement with the U.S. In a social media post, Trump wrote, “China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US. So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!”

The accusations were “seriously contrary to the facts,” the Chinese spokesperson said Monday, claiming that Beijing had “strictly implemented and actively upheld” the agreements, citing its steps to cancel and suspend certain tariff and non-tariff measures announced in April in response to Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs.

Bessent said in a Fox News interview last week that bilateral trade talks were “a bit stalled,” requiring the two countries’ leaders to speak directly.

On Sunday, National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett suggested that Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping could have a conversation about trade as soon as this week.

“A lot more detailed talks are necessary [for both sides] to come to a more stable agreement,” said Bert Hofman, professor at the East Asian Institute at the Nationa University of Singapore, while noting the intrinsic differences between the two governments are hampering progress with a top-level call.

“The U.S. side seems very keen on a Trump-Xi meeting or phone call. This caters to Mr. Trump’s desire to be seen as the master dealmaker. In contrast, the Chinese tradition is the opposite:  leader’s meeting or call should take place once lower level officials have reached major agreements, with few if any points outstanding,” Hofman said.

More

China says U.S. undermined Geneva trade deal after Trump accusations

In other news.

Fears of a US recession force ultra-wealthy to bail on rentals in popular summer hotspot

31 May 2025

The rich aren't biting this year — sparking concerns about the state of the economy. 

The super-wealthy, who flock to the Hamptons every summer to live in the lap of luxury, aren't spending tens of thousands per month to do so anymore.

A rental crisis has hit the Eastern end of Long Island, as mansion rentals are down 30 percent this year, according to CNBC.

And the luxury rental market that is usually booked every summer doesn't show any signs of improving.

New York City residents — who make up the majority of Hamptonites — will likely miss their infinity pools, tennis courts, and ocean views.

For ultra high-end rentals, brokers say their business is down between 50 percent and 75 percent.

While some people may simply be holding out for better deals, brokers say renters are concerned about economic instability. 

'People are holding on to their money,' said Enzo Morabito, head of the Hamptons-based Enzo Morabito Team at Douglas Elliman. 'They don't like uncertainty.'

For example, one palatial seven-bedroom estate in Bridgehampton, which normally rents for $350,000 from July 20 through Labor Day, is still sitting empty, CNBC reported.

Another 11,000-square-foot mansion in Bridgehampton has slashed its summer price tag from $450,000 to $375,000 in a desperate bid to lure renters.

Experts say some would-be renters are simply holding out for last-minute bargains or have been turned off by the late season frost in the area.

But brokers warn there's deeper trouble.

Economic jitters, a turbulent stock market, and Donald Trump's tariffs are forcing wallets shut.

The crisis marks a sharp reversal from January and February, when rental inquiries were flying in.

But by spring — and with the arrival of tariff chaos — it was nothing but crickets.

Luxury broker Gary DePersia of My Hampton Homes says what he's seeing is unprecedented, and that usually, the best homes go early. 

'This year, I have great rentals available in every town, from Southampton to Montauk,' he says.

Some nervous landlords have started slashing prices by up to 20 percent.

They're also offering concessions like shorter stays instead of full-summer commitments.

Morabito warns that homeowners who rely on summer rentals in order to pay a year's long mortgage may now be rethinking their investments.

More

Fears of a US recession force ultra-wealthy to bail on rentals in popular summer hotspot

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.


Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

New Covid variant NB.1.8.1 spreads globally: Impact, symptoms and travel implications

31 May 2025

A new COVID-19 variant called NB. 1.8.1 is stirring concern worldwide with a surge in cases prompting the World Health Organisation (WHO) to label it as a "variant under monitoring". Despite the risk to health being low, experts remain vigilant due to increased infections and hospitalisations in areas where NB.1.8. 1 is prevalent.

Identified initially on January 22, 2025, NB. 1.8.1 is a derivative of the Omicron strain. Fast forward to May 18, this variant has been detected in 22 nations, with 518 genetic sequences now logged in the GISAID database, reports Wales Online. Globally, NB 1.8. 1 accounts for 10% of all recorded COVID-19 infections - a steep rise from a mere 2.5% reported only a month prior.

NB 1.8. 1 has become predominant in Hong Kong and China, with occurrences noted in other areas including eastern Mediterranean hotspots like Egypt and locations in South East Asia such as Thailand and the Maldives. Moreover, the Centre of Disease Control (CDC) in the US has identified cases spanning New York, California, Arizona, Ohio, Washington, and Rhode Island.

Are there reports of NB. 1.8.1 within Wales?

This year, the most prevalent variants in Wales have been the XEC strains, including XEC. 2 and XEC.4. These have made up between 20% and 70% of all samples sequenced in Wales each week since December last year. Other frequently seen variants include the KP. 2 variant that was widespread in December last year, the LF.7 variant seen sporadically throughout the year, and the MC variants, which encompass the MC. 10, MC.13 and MC. 1 subvariants.

There have been instances of the NB. 1 variant sequenced in Wales, but these have only been detected a handful of times over three weeks out of the last 21.

Should you be concerned?

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), the global health risk from the NB. 1.8.1 variant is low. While some countries are witnessing an increase in hospital visits linked to this variant, there's no evidence to suggest it causes more severe illnesses than recent variants.

More

New Covid variant NB.1.8.1 spreads globally: Impact, symptoms and travel implications

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Porsche halts sale of EV over battery fire fears

31 May 2025

Porsche has ordered dealers to stop selling one of its electric models amid fears that the car will catch fire.

The first-generation Taycan – a model blighted by a string of safety malfunctions since its launch six years ago – has been taken off the market.

It is understood Porsche fears “a batch” of the high-end sports cars have a fault within their battery packs.

----The Taycan, which was Porsche’s first mass-produced electric vehicle (EV), has been subject to a dozen safety recalls in the past four years, including brake, suspension and welding defects.

Orders to halt sales last week are understood to relate to a previous recall issued in November by the Driver and Vehicle Standards Agency (DVSA).

The gremlin involves a potential short circuit within the Taycan’s battery, which “could lead to thermal events and later to a fire in the vehicle”.

Porsche wrote to its official used car dealers ordering them to immediately take a number of the affected Taycan models off sale, according to Car Dealer Magazine.

A Porsche spokesman said: “Enhanced battery monitoring software is anticipated to become available for first generation Taycan models towards the end of June. With its imminent arrival, we’ve advised our retail partners not to sell a small, specific batch of first generation Taycan models until the software update is live.”

A slump in sales

In September 2023, a £200,000 Taycan was reported to have burst into flames in the middle of a busy street in the city of Chongqing, south-western China.

Global sales of the troublesome model plummeted 49 per cent last year – a slump the German manufacturer blamed on the Taycan’s mid-cycle facelift and a slower-than-planned electric uptake.

UK owners impacted by the latest fire safety issue have been sent letters detailing the problem. A letter seen by The Telegraph states: “Cases have come to light in which a short circuit within the high-voltage battery has occurred ... subsequently causing the vehicle to catch fire.”

More

Porsche halts sale of EV over battery fire fears

E-bikes drive lithium-ion battery fire increase

28 May 2025

There has been a 93% surge in lithium-ion battery fires between 2022 and 2024, new research suggests, with e-bikes driving the increase.

It means that UK fire brigades are now tackling at least three lithium-ion battery fires a day, with e-bikes linked to more than a quarter (27%) of incidents in 2024.

The data, collected by QBE Insurance from Freedom of Information (FOI) requests to UK fire services in March 2025, showed that e-bikes accounted for 362 fires in 2024, doubling from 181 in 2022.  

Fires involving electric scooters increased by 32% from 118 in 2022 to 156 in 2024, while fires involving electric mobility scooters rose by 20% from 25 in 2022 to 30 in 2024.

Meanwhile, between 2022 and 2024, fires involving electric cars rose by 77% (131 to 232), with the number of electric vehicles (EVs) on the road more than doubling during the same period.

Lithium-ion battery fires are the result of “thermal runaway”, where batteries start to irreversibly overheat, usually due to impact damage, over-charging or over-heating.

QBE is calling for improvements to lithium-ion battery safety, because the fires burn hotter, faster and behave more unpredictably than ordinary combustion fires, increasing the risk of injury to people and damage to property.

In addition, it says that many people still do not know how to manage these emerging technologies and devices safely in their homes or businesses.

Adrian Simmonds, practice leader for property risk solutions at QBE Insurance, said: “Lithium-ion battery fires continue increasing at a worrying pace.

“These fires burn differently, they take longer to tackle, typically need ten times more water to put out and are often more harmful to the surrounding environment.”

Simmonds explained that, while QBE supports the adoption of electric-powered transport, it is also calling for “stricter regulation”.

For instance, Simmonds said: “The UK should stop the sale of rogue e-bikes and other unregulated devices. This could be done in the Product Regulation and Metrology Bill, which is going through Parliament.

“In the meantime, consumers should purchase e-bikes and e-scooters from reputable companies, so retailers that show they take quality and compliance seriously with a genuine CE mark.

“Raising awareness around safe charging, use and disposal of lithium-ion batteries is critical to keeping people and property safe.”

London accounted for almost a third of all lithium-ion battery fires in the UK (31%) and nearly half of all e-bike-related fires (49% or 178 incidents) in 2024.

More

E-bikes drive lithium-ion battery fire increase

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

A little more moderation would be good. Of course, my life hasn't exactly been one of moderation.

Donald Trump

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