Baltic
Dry Index. 1904 +166 Brent Crude 75.59
Spot Gold 3427 US 2 Year Yield 3.90 -0.04
US Federal Debt. 36.971 trillion
US GDP 30.068 trillion.
China is also the world’s sole producer of samarium, a light rare earth metal that is vital for military hardware including building fighter jets, missiles, electric warfare systems, and radar and sonar applications. Samarium magnets are essential for signal generation and play an important role in navigation, target tracking and threat detection. Samarium magnets are also valued because they can tolerate high temperatures without losing their magnetic force, which is critical to withstanding the heat created by fast moving motors.
Rare earths minerals are used in almost every form of advanced defence technology. Tanks, lasers, missiles, fighter jets, submarines, and warships all rely on rare earth minerals. Just one F-35 fighter jet uses about 900 pounds of rare earth minerals.
Which is why China won. Better settle that Ukraine war, fast.
For more on why China won, scroll down to the next section.
The big news this morning is Israel’s attack on Iran. The good news, hopefully ending Iran’s ability to produce nuclear weapons.
The bad news, it just sends out a message to the rest of the world that if you don’t want to be attacked you need your own nuclear weapons and a delivery mechanism. Mutual Assured Destruction works. Canada, Mexico, South Africa Australia, Greenland (?) get nukes.
The USA says it was not involved. Few in the rest of the world believe that. At the least, by scheduling nuke talks with Iran this Sunday in Oman, they provided cover for today’s surprise attack.
The biggest loser from today’s new war, the UN, rapidly going the way of the earlier League of Nations.
In the stock casinos and commodity markets, trepidation. Waiting for the next shoe to drop.
Israel launches strikes on nuclear and military targets in Iran
13 June 2025
Israel says it has struck Iranian nuclear and military targets to block Tehran
from developing atomic weapons, and has declared a state of emergency as it
braces for retaliation.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
said the operation, called ‘Rising Lion’, was aimed at hurting Iran’s nuclear
infrastructure, its ballistic missile factories and many of its military
capabilities.
“We are at a decisive moment in
Israel’s history,” he said in a recorded video message.
“This operation will take as long as
is needed to complete the task of fending off the threat of annihilation
against us,” he added.
Explosions were reported across the
capital, including at the country’s main uranium enrichment facility at Natanz.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards
Commander Hossein Salami was killed in a strike, Iranian state TV
reported.
Nuclear scientists Fereydoun
Abbasi-Davani and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi were also listed as among the dead.
Iran vows retaliation
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei said Israel had “unleashed its wicked and bloody” hand in a crime
against Iran and that it would receive “a bitter fate for itself”.
The Revolutionary Guards also said
Israel would pay a heavy price for killing top commander Salami.
“The Israeli attack was carried out
with full knowledge and support of the wicked rulers in the White House and
terrorist US Regime,” the Guards’ statement said.
More
Israel launches strikes on nuclear and military targets in Iran
Asia-Pacific markets fall as Israel
conducts military strikes on Iran; oil prices soar
Updated Fri, Jun 13 2025 12:24 AM
EDT
Asia-Pacific markets fell Friday as
Israel conducted a military strike on Iran, targeting its nuclear program,
while Iran vowed to retaliate.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 fell 1.12% while
the Topix lost 0.96%. South Korea’s Kospi was 0.98% lower and the small-cap
Kosdaq declined 2.91%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.23%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 0.72%
while mainland China’s CSI 300 lost 0.72%.
India’s Nifty 50 lost 1.01%, while
the BSE Sensex was down 1.42%.
Israel’s defense minister announced
a ‘special situation’ after Israel attacked Iran. The Israeli military has
begun airstrikes against Iran, two U.S. officials told NBC News. The officials
added that there was no U.S. involvement.
Defense Minister Israel Katz said,
“Following the State of Israel’s preemptive strike against Iran, a missile and
drone attack against the State of Israel and its civilian population is
expected in the immediate future.
Oil prices jumped more than
10%. U.S. West Texas
Intermediate rose 10.21%, to $74.99 per barrel, while global
benchmark Brent surged
10.28%, to $76.48 per barrel.
“The market has largely been
shrugging off geopolitical risk for the last year, and these development have
been a wakeup call that these risks are more tangible and imminent than many
expect,” Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee told CNBC via
email.
“It is possible these attacks could
be calibrated to add pressure on U.S. Iran negotiations and the situation
subsequently de-escalate,” he said.
U.S. stock futures
slid on Thursday night as tensions in the Middle East worsened.
U.S. producer prices in May rose
just 0.1% from the previous month, coming in cooler than the 0.2% jump expected
by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The softer reading helped boost major
stock indexes, while bond yields declined, improving investor sentiment. This
followed a cooler-than-expected consumer inflation report earlier in the week.
Overnight
stateside, all three key benchmarks closed higher. The S&P 500 rose, helped by a
rally in Oracle that
lifted the big tech sector. The benchmark climbed 0.38% to close at 6,045.26.
The broad market S&P 500 now sits less than 2% off its record high.
The Nasdaq Composite gained
0.24% and ended the day at 19,662.48. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added
101.85 points, or 0.24%, settling at 42,967.62.
Asia-Pacific
markets live: Israel strikes Iran, oil jumps
Dow futures fall 600 points after
Iran is targeted: Live updates
Updated Fri, Jun 13 2025 10:50 PM
EDT
U.S. stock futures fell on Thursday
night after Israel launched an airstrike attack on Iran.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell
611 points, or almost 1.4%. S&P
500 futures dropped roughly 1.6%, while Nasdaq 100 futures lost
1.6%.
Stock futures fell as Israel’s
defense minister Israel Katz declared a special state of emergency
following an
Israeli attack on Iran. Two U.S. officials said that there is no U.S.
involvement or assistance, according to NBC News. Brent
futures surged more than 7% on the development, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures
rose 7%.
More
Stock market futures fall after Israel attacks Iran: Live updates
US dollar sinks as inflation cools;
euro surges
12 June 2025
NEW YORK/MILAN (Reuters) -The dollar
slumped on Thursday as weaker-than-expected inflation data suggested the
Federal Reserve could resume cutting interest rates sooner rather than later,
while the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc benefited from rising Mideast
tensions.
The euro soared to its highest in
almost four years against the dollar. The greenback also fell to a two-month
low versus the Swiss franc and a roughly one-week low against the yen.
Data showed U.S. producer prices
increased less than expected in May, restrained by lower costs for services
like air fares, further undermining the dollar. Wednesday's data also indicated
cooling inflation, with a lower-than-expected rise in the U.S. Consumer Price
Index.
Vassili Serebriakov, FX analyst at
UBS in New York, said higher tariffs are not showing just yet on inflation
data, although he noted U.S. growth seemed to be slowing.
"We already priced in two cuts
for the Fed this year, which was less than two last week," said
Serebriakov. "The data is seen as potentially opening the window for the
Fed cutting either a little bit sooner or a little bit more."
Futures tracking the Fed's policy
rate showed rising bets the U.S. central bank will deliver a pair of
back-to-back interest rate cuts starting in September. Before the data, bets
were for a rate cut in September followed by one in December.
Thursday's U.S. data also indicated
the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits was
unchanged at higher levels last week as labor market conditions continued to
steadily ease.
Investors rushed into safe-haven
assets, with geopolitical risks in focus after U.S. President Donald Trump said
some U.S. personnel were being moved out of the Middle East because "it
could be a dangerous place" and that Washington would not allow Iran to
develop a nuclear weapon.
A cocktail of rising Middle East
tensions and concern over the fragility of the U.S.-China trade deal drew
investors into safe-haven assets.
----"The dollar has
lost some of its safe-haven characteristics," said UBS' Serebriakov.
"And I think the euro just benefits from that as being the second most
important global reserve currency by far, the second most important trade
invoicing currency, and really just the first kind of alternative to the
dollar."
More
US
dollar sinks as inflation cools; euro surges
In other
news, US Treasury Secretary Bessent suggests a new TACO arriving.
Bessent says US may 'roll the date forward' for
some after 90-day tariff pause ends
June 11, 2025
(Reuters) -U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott
Bessent said on Wednesday that the Trump administration may offer extensions
from a July trade deal deadline for countries negotiating in good faith,
telling lawmakers that the administration would "roll the date
forward" in certain cases.
The end of a 90-day pause in Trump's
broadest, "reciprocal" tariffs is fast approaching on July 8, with
only one trade deal agreed with Britain and some 17 others at various stages of
negotiation.
"It is highly likely that those
countries - or trading blocs as is the case with the EU - who are negotiating
in good faith, we will roll the date forward to continue the good-faith
negotiations," Bessent told the House Ways and Means Committee. "If
someone is not negotiating, then we will not."
Bessent's remarks, in response to a
question from a Democratic lawmaker, marked the first time a Trump
administration official has indicated some flexibility around the expiration
date for the pause.
Later on Wednesday, Bessent underscored
the possibility of more negotiating time at a second hearing, saying it was
"my belief that countries that are negotiating in good faith could be
rolled forward."
He told a Senate Appropriations
subcommittee that the European Union had previously been slower to come forward
with robust proposals, but was now showing "better faith," without
providing specifics.
A deal struck on Tuesday in London with
China to de-escalate that bilateral trade war is proceeding on a separate track
and timeline, with an August 10 deadline set last month.
The White House did not immediately
respond to a question about whether Trump shared Bessent’s view.
Trump himself has been the final
decision-maker on his administration's tariff and trade policies, but Bessent's
influence has increased in recent months and the Treasury chief has been viewed
by many trading partners as a moderating voice.
More
Bessent says US
may 'roll the date forward' for some after 90-day tariff pause ends
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Today,
why Trump folded and why Xi won. Can no one in the White House afford Forbes?
Potential
US-China Trade “deal”highlights US dependence on China’s rare earth minerals
June
11, 2025
President
Donald Trump announced that the U.S. has reached a trade deal with China,
subject to final approval by Chinese President Xi Jinping. A central component
of the deal, reportedly
includes expanding U.S. access to Chinese rare earth minerals, in exchange for
concessions allowing more Chinese students to attend American universities and
the export of sensitive products to China.
Though
the full details of the deal
are still unfolding, the U.S. is at a disadvantage in the negotiations.
Reportedly Beijing is only offering a concession that it had already offered a
month ago to lift the blockade on shipments of rare earth minerals. The current
deal may be a short-term solution for a much larger, long-term problem.
Much
attention has been given to the importance of rare earth minerals for electric
vehicles, electronics, robots and wind turbines. But rare earth minerals are
not just important to the global economy and energy supply. They also play a
critical role in defence. Syracuse University Professor
Sean McFate claimed
that “what oil was to the 20th century, rare earth minerals are to the 21st."
Rare
earths minerals are used in almost every form of advanced defence technology.
Tanks, lasers, missiles, fighter jets, submarines, and warships all rely on
rare earth minerals. Just one F-35 fighter jet uses about 900
pounds of
rare earth minerals.
Consisting
of a group 17 metals (and ranging from heavy to light), each rare earth mineral
offers distinct properties and uses. Minerals such as neodymium is a key
component in missile guidance systems, such as the Tomahawk cruise missile,
helping it to be more precise and manoeuvrable. Yttrium is used to
coat jet engines to ensure that they don’t melt mid-flight due to high
temperatures. Gadolinium is crucial
for sonar and radiation detection systems and radiation shielding, especially
in nuclear-powered submarines.
Though
there is an abundance of rare earth minerals with 110
million tonnes of
deposits across the world, China dominates the market, producing more
than 70% of the total
supply.
While
the US is the second largest producer generating 14% of the total, 70% of U.S.
rare earth minerals imports come from China.
Worldwide China maintains a
near monopoly-accounting for 61% of rare earth production and 92% of their
processing.
China’s
dominance is even greater in heavy rare earth
minerals—which are more critical to the production of defence equipment . It
processes nearly
100% of
heavy rare earth minerals. At one point Vietnam also had
some capacity to process these types of minerals, but its facility was shut
down in 2024 and is no longer operable.
China
is also the world’s sole producer of samarium, a light rare
earth metal that is vital for military hardware including building fighter
jets, missiles, electric warfare systems, and radar and sonar
applications. Samarium
magnets are
essential for signal generation and play an important role in navigation,
target tracking and threat detection. Samarium magnets are also valued because
they can tolerate high
temperatures without
losing their magnetic force, which is critical to withstanding the heat created
by fast moving motors.
Currently
the U.S. is lagging far behind in production capacity—and has only has two
domestic rare earth mining centers located in the state of Georgia and in
Mountain Pass, California.
---- As part of Trump’s ongoing trade war
with China, Beijing strategically applied export restrictions (requiring
domestic producers to apply for export licences from the Chinese government) in
April on seven medium and
heavy earth metals including samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium,
lutetium, scandium, and yttrium, which are all important to the defence
industry.
Trump’s
announcement of a deal may mean that these export restrictions on rare earth
minerals have been reversed. But knowing how important these minerals are to
U.S. national security, there are no guarantees that China won’t rescind this
offer in the future and use its rare earth dominance to push for a deal that’s
even more favorable to its own terms.
Potential US-China
Trade “deal”highlights US dependence on China’s rare earth minerals
Producer
Price Index News Release summary
8:30
a.m. (ET) Thursday, June 12, 2025
The
Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.1 percent in May, seasonally
adjusted, the
U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices declined 0.2
percent in April
and
0.1 percent in March. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for
final demand rose
2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in May.
The
May increase in the index for final demand was led by prices for final demand
services,
which advanced 0.1 percent. The index for final demand goods rose 0.2 percent.
Prices
for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services edged up 0.1 percent in
May after
falling
0.1 percent in April. For the 12 months ended in May, the index for final
demand less
foods,
energy, and trade services increased 2.7 percent.
More
Producer Price
Index News Release summary - 2025 M05 Results
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
How Critical Mineral Supply Chains
Became the EV Industry's Achilles Heel
Geopolitical
control of critical minerals threatens electric vehicle production and the
global clean energy transition.
Maria Guerra, Senior Editor-Battery Technology
June 11, 2025
Electric
vehicles (EVs) are a promising option for a greener future of transportation.
Still, a crucial distinction is often overlooked in public discussion: the
difference between rare earth elements and critical minerals. While EVs do
utilize some rare earth elements — primarily neodymium and dysprosium — in
their electric motors and electronics, the lithium-ion
batteries powering
EVs rely on critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and graphite.
These critical minerals in EV batteries face obstacles primarily of
infrastructure, geopolitics, and responsible extraction — challenges that,
while significant, offer more straightforward pathways to resolution.
China's rare earth restrictions threaten US
manufacturing
Rare earth minerals are essential for the production of
computer chips and other semiconductor devices. According to CNN, China's new
licensing requirements on rare earth elements exports could create what one
expert calls a "chip shortage on steroids" for US manufacturers. These 17 metallic elements are crucial for
products ranging from cars to smartphones to medical equipment, with China
controlling 92% of global processing capacity.
"Industry
simply could not manufacture" after the current two-to-three-month
supplies run out, warns Gracelin Baskaran from the Center for Strategic and
International Studies. CNN's article notes that "people think that it's
only EVs (electric vehicles), but it's not. It's in everything in every
car."
While US President Trump claims China President Xi
agreed to allow exports to resume, experts remain concerned about reliability.
"It makes it extremely difficult for industry to get a reliable read on
what the next three months, six months or a year are going to look like,"
Baskaran noted.
Fifteen years ago, the first generation of Toyota Prius
hybrid vehicle batteries contained large amounts of lanthanum in their anodes,
which were made of a lanthanum-pentanickel alloy (LaNi5); however, this is no
longer the case. Nowadays, most EV batteries are composed of lithium-ion
batteries that incorporate critical minerals.
Geopolitical risks in critical mineral supply chains
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA)
report, titled Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025, "Rising international political conflicts and internal governance
challenges within a major supplier nation risk disrupting the delicate balance
between supply and demand for these crucial minerals."
The IEA warns explicitly that "Growing
geopolitical tensions between regions and domestic governance issues in one of
the largest suppliers can disrupt the demand and supply balances for these
minerals that are essential for manufacturing high-performance permanent
magnets (often neodymium iron boron [NdFeB]) used to build powerful motors for
several cutting-edge applications, including EVs."
More,
much more.
How Critical
Mineral Supply Chains Became the EV Industry's Achilles Heel
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Another weekend and time for tomorrow’s LIR to cover
the USA threatening national suicide via section 899 of President Trump’s Big
Beautiful Bill.
Tomorrow, in the LIR, as one gate to hell closes, section
899, if it passes, is it about to open up a new gate to hell for the US economy
and dollar. Have a great weekend
everyone. Unfortunately, under the coming all against all tariff wars, the sky
starts to fall in H2 25 even without section 899.
All
safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and
may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S.
Franklin D. Roosevelt
No comments:
Post a Comment