Friday, 13 June 2025

Friday The Thirteenth, More Real War. Why China Won The Trade War.

Baltic Dry Index. 1904 +166            Brent Crude 75.59

Spot Gold 3427                     US 2 Year Yield 3.90 -0.04  

US Federal Debt. 36.971 trillion  

US GDP 30.068 trillion.

China is also the world’s sole producer of samarium, a light rare earth metal that is vital for military hardware including building fighter jets, missiles, electric warfare systems, and radar and sonar applications. Samarium magnets are essential for signal generation and play an important role in navigation, target tracking and threat detection. Samarium magnets are also valued because they can tolerate high temperatures without losing their magnetic force, which is critical to withstanding the heat created by fast moving motors.

Rare earths minerals are used in almost every form of advanced defence technology. Tanks, lasers, missiles, fighter jets, submarines, and warships all rely on rare earth minerals. Just one F-35 fighter jet uses about 900 pounds of rare earth minerals.

Which is why China won. Better settle that Ukraine war, fast.

For more on why China won, scroll down to the next section.

The big news this morning is Israel’s attack on Iran. The good news, hopefully ending Iran’s ability to produce nuclear weapons.

The bad news, it just sends out a message to the rest of the world that if you don’t want to be attacked you need your own nuclear weapons and a delivery mechanism. Mutual Assured Destruction works. Canada, Mexico, South Africa Australia, Greenland (?) get nukes.

The USA says it was not involved. Few in the rest of the world believe that. At the least, by scheduling nuke talks with Iran this Sunday in Oman, they provided cover for today’s surprise attack.

The biggest loser from today’s new war, the UN, rapidly going the way of the earlier League of Nations.

In the stock casinos and commodity markets, trepidation. Waiting for the next shoe to drop.

Israel launches strikes on nuclear and military targets in Iran

13 June 2025

Israel says it has struck Iranian nuclear and military targets to block Tehran from developing atomic weapons, and has declared a state of emergency as it braces for retaliation.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the operation, called ‘Rising Lion’, was aimed at hurting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, its ballistic missile factories and many of its military capabilities.

“We are at a decisive moment in Israel’s history,” he said in a recorded video message.

“This operation will take as long as is needed to complete the task of fending off the threat of annihilation against us,” he added.

Explosions were reported across the capital, including at the country’s main uranium enrichment facility at Natanz.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Commander Hossein Salami was killed in a strike, Iranian state TV reported. 

Nuclear scientists Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi were also listed as among the dead.

Iran vows retaliation

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Israel had “unleashed its wicked and bloody” hand in a crime against Iran and that it would receive “a bitter fate for itself”.

The Revolutionary Guards also said Israel would pay a heavy price for killing top commander Salami.

“The Israeli attack was carried out with full knowledge and support of the wicked rulers in the White House and terrorist US Regime,” the Guards’ statement said.

More

Israel launches strikes on nuclear and military targets in Iran

Asia-Pacific markets fall as Israel conducts military strikes on Iran; oil prices soar

Updated Fri, Jun 13 2025 12:24 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets fell Friday as Israel conducted a military strike on Iran, targeting its nuclear program, while Iran vowed to retaliate.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 fell 1.12% while the Topix lost 0.96%. South Korea’s Kospi was 0.98% lower and the small-cap Kosdaq declined 2.91%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.23%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 0.72% while mainland China’s CSI 300 lost 0.72%.

India’s Nifty 50 lost 1.01%, while the BSE Sensex was down 1.42%.

Israel’s defense minister announced a ‘special situation’ after Israel attacked Iran. The Israeli military has begun airstrikes against Iran, two U.S. officials told NBC News. The officials added that there was no U.S. involvement.

Defense Minister Israel Katz said, “Following the State of Israel’s preemptive strike against Iran, a missile and drone attack against the State of Israel and its civilian population is expected in the immediate future.

Oil prices jumped more than 10%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 10.21%, to $74.99 per barrel, while global benchmark Brent surged 10.28%, to $76.48 per barrel.

“The market has largely been shrugging off geopolitical risk for the last year, and these development have been a wakeup call that these risks are more tangible and imminent than many expect,” Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee told CNBC via email.

“It is possible these attacks could be calibrated to add pressure on U.S. Iran negotiations and the situation subsequently de-escalate,” he said.

U.S. stock futures slid on Thursday night as tensions in the Middle East worsened.

U.S. producer prices in May rose just 0.1% from the previous month, coming in cooler than the 0.2% jump expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The softer reading helped boost major stock indexes, while bond yields declined, improving investor sentiment. This followed a cooler-than-expected consumer inflation report earlier in the week.

Overnight stateside, all three key benchmarks closed higher. The S&P 500 rose, helped by a rally in Oracle that lifted the big tech sector. The benchmark climbed 0.38% to close at 6,045.26. The broad market S&P 500 now sits less than 2% off its record high. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.24% and ended the day at 19,662.48. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 101.85 points, or 0.24%, settling at 42,967.62.

Asia-Pacific markets live: Israel strikes Iran, oil jumps

Dow futures fall 600 points after Iran is targeted: Live updates

Updated Fri, Jun 13 2025 10:50 PM EDT

U.S. stock futures fell on Thursday night after Israel launched an airstrike attack on Iran.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 611 points, or almost 1.4%. S&P 500 futures dropped roughly 1.6%, while Nasdaq 100 futures lost 1.6%.

Stock futures fell as Israel’s defense minister Israel Katz declared a special state of emergency following an Israeli attack on Iran. Two U.S. officials said that there is no U.S. involvement or assistance, according to NBC NewsBrent futures surged more than 7% on the development, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 7%.

More

Stock market futures fall after Israel attacks Iran: Live updates

US dollar sinks as inflation cools; euro surges

12 June 2025

NEW YORK/MILAN (Reuters) -The dollar slumped on Thursday as weaker-than-expected inflation data suggested the Federal Reserve could resume cutting interest rates sooner rather than later, while the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc benefited from rising Mideast tensions.

The euro soared to its highest in almost four years against the dollar. The greenback also fell to a two-month low versus the Swiss franc and a roughly one-week low against the yen.

Data showed U.S. producer prices increased less than expected in May, restrained by lower costs for services like air fares, further undermining the dollar. Wednesday's data also indicated cooling inflation, with a lower-than-expected rise in the U.S. Consumer Price Index.

Vassili Serebriakov, FX analyst at UBS in New York, said higher tariffs are not showing just yet on inflation data, although he noted U.S. growth seemed to be slowing.

"We already priced in two cuts for the Fed this year, which was less than two last week," said Serebriakov. "The data is seen as potentially opening the window for the Fed cutting either a little bit sooner or a little bit more."

Futures tracking the Fed's policy rate showed rising bets the U.S. central bank will deliver a pair of back-to-back interest rate cuts starting in September. Before the data, bets were for a rate cut in September followed by one in December.

Thursday's U.S. data also indicated the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits was unchanged at higher levels last week as labor market conditions continued to steadily ease.

Investors rushed into safe-haven assets, with geopolitical risks in focus after U.S. President Donald Trump said some U.S. personnel were being moved out of the Middle East because "it could be a dangerous place" and that Washington would not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon.

A cocktail of rising Middle East tensions and concern over the fragility of the U.S.-China trade deal drew investors into safe-haven assets.

----"The dollar has lost some of its safe-haven characteristics," said UBS' Serebriakov. "And I think the euro just benefits from that as being the second most important global reserve currency by far, the second most important trade invoicing currency, and really just the first kind of alternative to the dollar."

More

US dollar sinks as inflation cools; euro surges

In other news, US Treasury Secretary Bessent suggests a new TACO arriving.

Bessent says US may 'roll the date forward' for some after 90-day tariff pause ends

June 11, 2025

(Reuters) -U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that the Trump administration may offer extensions from a July trade deal deadline for countries negotiating in good faith, telling lawmakers that the administration would "roll the date forward" in certain cases.

The end of a 90-day pause in Trump's broadest, "reciprocal" tariffs is fast approaching on July 8, with only one trade deal agreed with Britain and some 17 others at various stages of negotiation.

"It is highly likely that those countries - or trading blocs as is the case with the EU - who are negotiating in good faith, we will roll the date forward to continue the good-faith negotiations," Bessent told the House Ways and Means Committee. "If someone is not negotiating, then we will not."

Bessent's remarks, in response to a question from a Democratic lawmaker, marked the first time a Trump administration official has indicated some flexibility around the expiration date for the pause.

Later on Wednesday, Bessent underscored the possibility of more negotiating time at a second hearing, saying it was "my belief that countries that are negotiating in good faith could be rolled forward."

He told a Senate Appropriations subcommittee that the European Union had previously been slower to come forward with robust proposals, but was now showing "better faith," without providing specifics.

A deal struck on Tuesday in London with China to de-escalate that bilateral trade war is proceeding on a separate track and timeline, with an August 10 deadline set last month.

The White House did not immediately respond to a question about whether Trump shared Bessent’s view.

Trump himself has been the final decision-maker on his administration's tariff and trade policies, but Bessent's influence has increased in recent months and the Treasury chief has been viewed by many trading partners as a moderating voice.

More

Bessent says US may 'roll the date forward' for some after 90-day tariff pause ends

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Today, why Trump folded and why Xi won. Can no one in the White House afford Forbes?

Potential US-China Trade “deal”highlights US dependence on China’s rare earth minerals

June 11, 2025

President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. has reached a trade deal with China, subject to final approval by Chinese President Xi Jinping. A central component of the deal, reportedly includes expanding U.S. access to Chinese rare earth minerals, in exchange for concessions allowing more Chinese students to attend American universities and the export of sensitive products to China.

Though the full details of the deal are still unfolding, the U.S. is at a disadvantage in the negotiations. Reportedly Beijing is only offering a concession that it had already offered a month ago to lift the blockade on shipments of rare earth minerals. The current deal may be a short-term solution for a much larger, long-term problem.

Much attention has been given to the importance of rare earth minerals for electric vehicles, electronics, robots and wind turbines. But rare earth minerals are not just important to the global economy and energy supply. They also play a critical role in defence. Syracuse University Professor Sean McFate claimed that “what oil was to the 20th century, rare earth minerals are to the 21st."

Rare earths minerals are used in almost every form of advanced defence technology. Tanks, lasers, missiles, fighter jets, submarines, and warships all rely on rare earth minerals. Just one F-35 fighter jet uses about 900 pounds of rare earth minerals.

Consisting of a group 17 metals (and ranging from heavy to light), each rare earth mineral offers distinct properties and uses. Minerals such as neodymium is a key component in missile guidance systems, such as the Tomahawk cruise missile, helping it to be more precise and manoeuvrable. Yttrium is used to coat jet engines to ensure that they don’t melt mid-flight due to high temperatures. Gadolinium is crucial for sonar and radiation detection systems and radiation shielding, especially in nuclear-powered submarines.

Though there is an abundance of rare earth minerals with 110 million tonnes of deposits across the world, China dominates the market, producing more than 70% of the total supply.

While the US is the second largest producer generating 14% of the total, 70% of U.S. rare earth minerals imports come from China. Worldwide China maintains a near monopoly-accounting for 61% of rare earth production and 92% of their processing.

China’s dominance is even greater in heavy rare earth minerals—which are more critical to the production of defence equipment . It processes nearly 100% of heavy rare earth minerals. At one point Vietnam also had some capacity to process these types of minerals, but its facility was shut down in 2024 and is no longer operable.

China is also the world’s sole producer of samarium, a light rare earth metal that is vital for military hardware including building fighter jets, missiles, electric warfare systems, and radar and sonar applications. Samarium magnets are essential for signal generation and play an important role in navigation, target tracking and threat detection. Samarium magnets are also valued because they can tolerate high temperatures without losing their magnetic force, which is critical to withstanding the heat created by fast moving motors.

Currently the U.S. is lagging far behind in production capacity—and has only has two domestic rare earth mining centers located in the state of Georgia and in Mountain Pass, California.

---- As part of Trump’s ongoing trade war with China, Beijing strategically applied export restrictions (requiring domestic producers to apply for export licences from the Chinese government) in April on seven medium and heavy earth metals including samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium, which are all important to the defence industry.

Trump’s announcement of a deal may mean that these export restrictions on rare earth minerals have been reversed. But knowing how important these minerals are to U.S. national security, there are no guarantees that China won’t rescind this offer in the future and use its rare earth dominance to push for a deal that’s even more favorable to its own terms.

Potential US-China Trade “deal”highlights US dependence on China’s rare earth minerals

Producer Price Index News Release summary

8:30 a.m. (ET) Thursday, June 12, 2025

The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.1 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices declined 0.2 percent in April

and 0.1 percent in March. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose

2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in May.

The May increase in the index for final demand was led by prices for final demand services,

which advanced 0.1 percent. The index for final demand goods rose 0.2 percent.

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services edged up 0.1 percent in May after

falling 0.1 percent in April. For the 12 months ended in May, the index for final demand less

foods, energy, and trade services increased 2.7 percent.

More

Producer Price Index News Release summary - 2025 M05 Results

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

How Critical Mineral Supply Chains Became the EV Industry's Achilles Heel

Geopolitical control of critical minerals threatens electric vehicle production and the global clean energy transition.

Maria Guerra, Senior Editor-Battery Technology

June 11, 2025

Electric vehicles (EVs) are a promising option for a greener future of transportation. Still, a crucial distinction is often overlooked in public discussion: the difference between rare earth elements and critical minerals. While EVs do utilize some rare earth elements — primarily neodymium and dysprosium — in their electric motors and electronics, the lithium-ion batteries powering EVs rely on critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and graphite. These critical minerals in EV batteries face obstacles primarily of infrastructure, geopolitics, and responsible extraction — challenges that, while significant, offer more straightforward pathways to resolution.

China's rare earth restrictions threaten US manufacturing

Rare earth minerals are essential for the production of computer chips and other semiconductor devices. According to CNN, China's new licensing requirements on rare earth elements exports could create what one expert calls a "chip shortage on steroids" for US manufacturers. These 17 metallic elements are crucial for products ranging from cars to smartphones to medical equipment, with China controlling 92% of global processing capacity.

"Industry simply could not manufacture" after the current two-to-three-month supplies run out, warns Gracelin Baskaran from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. CNN's article notes that "people think that it's only EVs (electric vehicles), but it's not. It's in everything in every car."

While US President Trump claims China President Xi agreed to allow exports to resume, experts remain concerned about reliability. "It makes it extremely difficult for industry to get a reliable read on what the next three months, six months or a year are going to look like," Baskaran noted.

Fifteen years ago, the first generation of Toyota Prius hybrid vehicle batteries contained large amounts of lanthanum in their anodes, which were made of a lanthanum-pentanickel alloy (LaNi5); however, this is no longer the case. Nowadays, most EV batteries are composed of lithium-ion batteries that incorporate critical minerals.

Geopolitical risks in critical mineral supply chains

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) report, titled Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025, "Rising international political conflicts and internal governance challenges within a major supplier nation risk disrupting the delicate balance between supply and demand for these crucial minerals."

The IEA warns explicitly that "Growing geopolitical tensions between regions and domestic governance issues in one of the largest suppliers can disrupt the demand and supply balances for these minerals that are essential for manufacturing high-performance permanent magnets (often neodymium iron boron [NdFeB]) used to build powerful motors for several cutting-edge applications, including EVs."

More, much more.

How Critical Mineral Supply Chains Became the EV Industry's Achilles Heel

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Another weekend and time for tomorrow’s LIR to cover the USA threatening national suicide via section 899 of President Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill.

Tomorrow, in the LIR, as one gate to hell closes, section 899, if it passes, is it about to open up a new gate to hell for the US economy and dollar.  Have a great weekend everyone. Unfortunately, under the coming all against all tariff wars, the sky starts to fall in H2 25 even without section 899.

All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S.

Franklin D. Roosevelt

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