Baltic Dry Index. 1689 -62 Brent Crude 77.01
Spot
Gold 3368 U S 2
Year Yield 3.90 -0.04
US
Federal Debt. 37.004 trillion
US
GDP 30.085 trillion
At the heart
of capitalism is creative destruction.
Joseph A. Schumpeter
Will President Trump
launch a war on Iran which hasn’t attacked America, or won’t he? Who knows,
probably not even the erratic, blusterous President Trump himself.
Doe he even have the
power to start optional wars without Congress? Does it matter?
Probably not, unless
a US attack caused a large radiation release that affected nearby countries or
affected the Persian Gulf oil supply. Then it would matter in spades.
Another nervous
weekend ahead for planet Earth’s too
complacent, but increasingly nervous, stock casinos.
A happy longest day
to readers in the northern hemisphere.
As we end the 810th
Magna Carta week, check out today’s last YouTube item.
S&P
500 posts third straight losing day as traders eye Middle East tensions,
Trump’s next steps: Live updates
Updated
Sat, Jun 21 2025 7:10 PM EDT
The S&P 500 fell on Friday as
investors monitored the latest developments out of the Middle East. Traders
also contemplated the path of future interest rate cuts by Federal Reserve.
The
broad market index declined 0.22% to end at 5,967.84. Friday marked the third
consecutive losing session for the S&P 500. The Nasdaq Composite dropped
0.51% and settled at 19,447.41. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked
up 35.16 points, or 0.08%, closing at 42,206.82.
Chip
stocks came under pressure following a report by The Wall Street Journal that
the U.S. may
revoke waivers for some semiconductor manufacturers. Nvidia was down more than 1%,
while Taiwan Semiconductor
Manufacturing slid nearly 2%. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) was
lower by nearly 1%.
The
S&P 500 started off the trading session higher after Federal Reserve
Governor Christopher Waller said that the central bank could
cut rates as early as July. “I think we’re in the position that we could do
this and as early as July,” Waller said during a “Squawk Box” interview.
“That
would be my view, whether the committee would go along with it or not,” he
added.
This
comes after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday the central bank was in no
hurry to cut benchmark rates and will remain data dependent, especially as it
remains unclear how President Donald Trump’s tariffs will impact the economy.
The S&P 500 closed slightly lower that day following those remarks.
Trump
ripped into Powell again Thursday, saying the Fed Chair is costing the
U.S. “hundreds of billions of dollars” by delaying rate cuts. The president
said ahead of the Fed’s decision Wednesday that “stupid”
Powell “probably won’t cut” rates.
Tensions
around the Israel-Iran conflict also remained high, as Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly ordering Jerusalem’s military to strike
“strategic targets” in Iran, as well as “government targets.”
Trump
is weighing direct U.S. involvement with a strike on Tehran, with the White
House on Thursday saying that he will make a final decision within the next two weeks. Trump previously
called for Tehran’s complete surrender, to which Iran’s supreme leader,
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, labeled the notion “threatening and ridiculous.”
“With
so much uncertainty going on in this world, who really wants to go long over
the weekend,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.
He also pointed out that the S&P 500 is still trading at just around 3%
below its recent 52-week high, saying that “prior highs act like rusty doors
and require several attempts before finally swinging open.”
“If
there’s a calming down of the geopolitical activities, then you know that could
be helpful,” he continued.
For
the week, the S&P 500 was about 0.2% lower. The 30-stock Dow eked out a
0.02% gain on the week, while the Nasdaq advanced 0.2%.
Stock
market news for June 20, 2025
Mideast
in Wait-And-See Mode as Trump Hints He’ll Hold Off Strike
June 20, 2025 at 5:00 PM GMT+1
The direction of Israel’s war with Iran remains
highly unpredictable as it enters a second week, with both sides continuing to
trade fire. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country
won’t return to nuclear talks while Israel keeps up its assault, after the
White House hinted it wanted to give diplomacy a chance and as
European leaders prepared to meet him in Geneva to discuss
de-escalation.
The direction of Israel’s war with Iran remains
highly unpredictable as it enters a second week, with both sides continuing to
trade fire. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country
won’t return to nuclear talks while Israel keeps up its assault, after the
White House hinted it wanted to give
diplomacy a chance and as European leaders prepared to meet
him in Geneva to discuss de-escalation.
Markets went into a wait-and-see mode: Stocks rose and oil slumped. But worries
grew among businesses operating in the region. American and European airlines
began pausing flights to hubs including Doha and Dubai. And AP
Moller-Maersk, the Danish container-shipping giant, said it will suspend stops
to Haifa, Israel’s biggest port. — Caroline Alexander
Markets went into a wait-and-see mode: Stocks
rose and oil slumped. But worries grew among businesses operating in the
region. American and European airlines began pausing
flights to hubs including Doha and Dubai. And AP Moller-Maersk, the
Danish container-shipping giant, said it will suspend stops to Haifa, Israel’s
biggest port. — Caroline
Alexander
As
the world waits to see if the US joins the Israeli offensive, satellite images
reveal President Donald Trump’s dilemma over Iran’s nuclear complex. The latest
evidence from the ground suggests they would need to significantly escalate
attacks if they want to eradicate the
Islamic Republic’s nuclear capabilities. Satellite images show atomic
installations were
only grazed after four days of bombardment.
The
euro is taking on a bigger role in the global currency options
market as traders
skirt around the dollar given the risks from unpredictable US policy
and a
global trade war. There’s been a shift in trading volumes. There are
also signs the euro is being used as a haven — traditionally the dollar’s role
— and for bets on big moves.
The
perils of trade and geopolitics will slow the rally in European
stocks rather
than derail it, Wall Street strategists say. The Stoxx Europe 600
Index is expected to end the year around 557 points, according to the average
of 19 strategists we polled. That implies a further 3% advance from
Wednesday’s close, handing investors annual returns of about 10%.
----The
UK’s supermarket regulator is investigating Amazon.com over
delayed payments to suppliers. It’s the first time the regulator is
investigating the online retailer’s since it was designated as a
grocery retailer in 2022. And the company could face a fine of as
much as 1% of its annual revenue in the UK if a breach is confirmed.
Mideast
in Wait-And-See Mode as Trump Hints He’ll Hold Off Strike - Bloomberg
In other news, who
wants to visit friend and foe, tariff America? US harvest season underway.
Flight
prices to the USA have dropped to lowest since pre-pandemic - and could get even
cheaper
19 June 2025
Flight prices from Europe to the USA have dropped to
their lowest since before the pandemic, as more and more holidaymakers are
shunning the States in favour of alternative destinations.
The US National Travel and Tourism Office has
revealed a 2.8 per cent drop in overseas arrivals to the US in May compared to
the previous year.
And, in March, travel from Western Europe fell 17%
year-on-year, according to the NTTO.
This decline in transatlantic flights has been
happening since earlier this year, when US President Donald Trump announced a strict tariff policy.
And now, thanks to this drop in tourism, the price
of return flights from the U.S. to Europe is down 10 per cent compared with a
year ago.
In fact, the average fares of $817/£609 per ticket
are in line with prices from the summer of 2019 before the pandemic, according
to travel booking app Hopper.
This downward trend is expected to continue, as
analytics firm OAG Aviation has said forward bookings for July show a 13 per
cent year-on-year reduction in inbound travel to the States.
Major carriers, including Air France KLM and
Germany-based Lufthansa, have also confirmed they expect slowing activity.
Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr said the company expects
weaker demand, while Air France KLM CEO Ben Smith said the company is seeing a
‘slight pullback’ in transatlantic traffic and will slash prices to keep cabins
on its flights full.
It comes after Sir Richard Branson exclusively told MailOnline
Travel how Brits could benefit from going to the
States now if they want a cheap holiday - due to the dollar having sunk to its
lowest level in three years.
Speaking at the opening of the new Virgin Hotel in
Shoreditch, he told us: ‘It’s now costing people 12 or 15 per cent less than
before Trump took over to go to America.
‘A lot of Americans are very frustrated about the
dollar collapsing in value, obviously, but that's been a great benefit to people living in the UK,
as it makes it cheaper to go on holiday to the States.
‘It means good hotel prices, and fuel prices are
less too, so we can price our flights competitively.’
Flight prices to the USA have dropped to lowest since pre-pandemic - and
could get even cheaper
How
Is the U.S. Winter Wheat Harvest Going?
By Mariah Squire Updated on
June 18, 2025
The country’s winter wheat harvest is well underway,
according to the most recent USDA Crop Progress report. As of June 15, nine of
the top 18 winter-wheat-growing states had begun to harvest the crop.
Overall, 10% of the nation’s crop has been
harvested, behind the average of 16%. All but two states were behind their
respective five-year averages — anywhere from 1 percentage point to 16
percentage points behind. Here’s a closer look at winter wheat progress and
conditions across the country.
Arkansas
Although half the nation’s top winter wheat-growing
states haven’t even begun harvest, Arkansas farmers have harvested almost half
their crop already. By June 15, 48% of the Arkansas winter wheat crop had been
harvested, according to USDA, which is 2 percentage points behind the five-year
average. Last year at this time, 63% of the crop had been harvested.
Only 39% of the winter wheat in Arkansas was rated
good/excellent by USDA. Almost half the crop was rated fair, and 13% was rated
poor/very poor.
---- Kansas
In Kansas, winter wheat harvest had reached 3% by
June 15, behind the five-year average of 11%. Last year at this time, winter
wheat harvest in Kansas was already a quarter wrapped up.
Less than half of Kansas’ winter wheat crop was
rated good/excellent by USDA. According to the report, 30% of the crop was
rated fair, and 21% was rated poor/very poor.
---- Oklahoma
With 30% of its winter wheat harvested, Oklahoma
farmers are 16 percentage points behind the five-year average — the furthest
behind of any state. Last year at this time, 78% of the crop had been
harvested.
Sixty-two percent of the winter wheat crop in
Oklahoma was in good/excellent condition as of June 15. As for the rest, 27%
was rated fair, and 11% was rated poor/very poor.
Texas
Rounding out the nine states with winter wheat
harvest underway is Texas. The Lone Star State had the most winter wheat out of
the field the week ending June 15, with 56% harvested. That’s just shy of the
five-year average of 57%.
The condition of Texas’ winter wheat is the poorest
of the nine states that have begun harvest. Only 37% was rated good/excellent,
33% was rated fair, and 30% was rated poor/very poor.
How Is the U.S. Winter Wheat Harvest Going?
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given our Magic Money
Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
We open this weekend
with inflation sadly wracking the UK economy.
Unfortunately, I know
only too well the effects of today’s distressing UK inflation.
My government
encouraged “priority supplies stockpile”, my gin and tonic bottles, with
inflation, now regrettably only seem to last half as long as they used to! Inflation
in the roaring 2020s.
I think I can still remember
when a bottle lasted more than two days.
'Inflation
and customer cutbacks' blamed for big dive in retail sales
20 June 2025
Retail
sales volumes suffered their largest monthly fall since December 2023 last
month, according to official figures which suggest a link to rising bills.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a
2.7% decline in the quantity of goods bought in May compared to the previous
month.
The body said its interaction with retailers
suggested "inflation and customer cutbacks" accounted for the fall, which was
across all categories, but led by food.
The seasonally adjusted data - which reflects the
effects of holidays - means that those for Easter are modified to give a
clearer picture of sales trends.
A poll of economists by the Reuters news agency had
expected to see a decline in volumes of just 0.5% in May following April's
growth of 1.3%.
May was the month when households would have noticed
the hit from the so-called 'awful April' above-inflation hikes to essential
bills, including council tax, water, mobiles, broadband and energy.
Retail sales growth had proved to be resilient this
year until May but April brought a number of additional curveballs to confuse
sentiment and place pressure on the economy generally.
Donald Trump's "liberation day" tariff
regime kicked in while Budget measures, including rises to minimum pay levels
and employer national insurance contributions (NICs), also placed additional
costs on businesses.
A closely-watched measure of consumer confidence
covering June showed no rise in consumers' expectations for spending on
so-called big ticket items.
The GfK survey was taken after the UK's trade truce
with the US but before Israel's air war with Iran began.
That has pushed oil and natural gas prices up by
double-digit percentage levels in under a week, threatening a new energy-led
cost of living threat.
It's another challenge that retailers, businesses
more widely, and Rachel Reeves could do without.
Thomas Pugh, economist at audit firm RSM UK, said:
"Looking ahead to the budget in the autumn, the under performance of the
economy and higher borrowing costs mean the chancellor may already have lost
the £9.9bn of fiscal headroom that she clawed back in March.
"Throw in the tough outlook for many government
departments announced in the spending review and U-turns on welfare spending
and the chancellor will probably have to announce some top-up tax increases
after the summer."
More
'Inflation and customer cutbacks' blamed for big dive in retail sales
Trump
Threatens Higher Car Tariffs as Imports Plummet by 72%
June 20, 2025
Donald Trump is once again putting car imports in
the political crosshairs.
At a press conference last Thursday, the U.S.
president announced he’s considering new, higher tariffs on imported cars.
He claims that this move is aimed at protecting
American jobs and blocking California’s upcoming ban on new gasoline and diesel
cars, set to take effect in 2035.
Currently, imported cars face a 25 percent duty,
according to Boosted.
Trump didn’t specify how much higher the new tariffs
might go—or when they could be introduced—but his message was clear: if
carmakers want to sell in the U.S., they should build their factories there.
“The higher the tariffs, the more likely it is that
car brands will build factories here,” Trump said, adding that his
administration’s policies are already drawing results.
He pointed to fresh investments from domestic giants
like Ford and General Motors—totaling $4 billion—as proof that his strategy is
working.
What
It Means for Car Buyers
Foreign automakers are closely watching the
situation.
Hyundai has already hinted that higher tariffs could
mean price hikes for American consumers.
And there’s already evidence of an impact. According
to Cox Automotive, new car prices in the U.S. rose by 2.5 percent
in April.
Meanwhile, imports of brand-new vehicles have
plummeted—a dramatic 72 percent drop, according to the same research firm.
The European Automobile Manufacturers Association
(ACEA) has yet to respond, but concerns are mounting across the global auto
industry.
Trump’s tariff threats also serve as a direct
challenge to California’s green vehicle goals. The state plans to ban the sale
of new combustion-engine cars starting in 2035, pushing electric vehicles as
the future.
Trump Threatens Higher Car Tariffs as Imports Plummet by 72%
Stability leads to instability. The more stable
things become and the longer things are stable, the more unstable they will be
when the crisis hits.
Hyman Minsky
Technology
Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Well if they say so.
This EV battery fully recharges in just 18 seconds — and it just
got the green light for mass production
16 June 2025
A British firm has received approval to
mass-produce an ultra-high-power-density electric vehicle (EV) battery that can
be fully recharged in just 18 seconds.
The RML Group was granted Conformity of
Production certification for its VarEVolt battery on June 2. This government
approval signifies that the firm can mass-produce the powerful batteries for EV
manufacturers.
The certification "underlines our
readiness to move from prototyping and niche volumes to supporting larger
production contracts," James Arkell, the head of powertrain at RML Group,
said in a statement.
RML's battery can deliver lots of power
in a short span. The VarEVolt battery can supply 6 kilowatts per kilogram, and
it's capable of "dumping all its power really, really quickly," RML
board member Michael Mallock told Autocar.
The battery has a C rating of 200, meaning it's capable of fully charging or
discharging in about 18 seconds.
In comparison, the fully electric
Porsche Taycan's battery has a C rating of around 4 to 5, so it takes 12 to 15
minutes to charge or discharge.
The VarEVolt's modular design lets
manufacturers tune it for different applications. "We can focus on range,
we can focus on power, or we can balance the two," depending on the type
of vehicle it will be deployed in, RML Group CEO Paul Dickinson told Autocar.
Superfast charging for superfast EVs
Some small-scale manufacturers are
already using the VarEVolt battery; it helps power the futuristic Czinger 21C hybrid hypercar,
which relies on a combination of an electric motor that uses energy stored in
the battery and an internal combustion engine that burns gasoline.
Right now, the RML group is producing
just a few of the VarEVolt batteries at a time, but future large-scale output
wouldn't necessarily be confined to exclusive products like the 21C. (Czinger
produced just 80 of the luxury sports cars in the first run.)
The firm is developing a kit to convert
the battery packs in older hypercars, such as the LaFerrari or the McLaren P1,
to updated versions, according to Mallock.
"For those types of cars, we can do
a replacement pack that will significantly increase the range, and if the rest
of the hardware within the car would allow it, you could have a version that
was eight times the power output," Mallock told Autocar.
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Exponent
Calculator
Enter
values into any two of the input fields to solve for the third.
This
weekend’s music diversion. 1711 revisited. Approx. 8 minutes.
Francesco
Manfredini (1684-1762) - Concerto con due Trombe (1711)
Francesco
Manfredini (1684-1762) - Concerto con due Trombe (1711) - YouTube
Next,
why did the RMS Titanic sink if it had watertight bulkheads? Approx. 15
minutes.
Why
were Titanic's Watertight Compartments open at the Top?
Why were Titanic's
Watertight Compartments open at the Top? - YouTube
This
week, as we celebrate the 810th anniversary of the signing of Magna
Carta, Magna Carta or Great Charter. Approx. 11 minutes.
Why
Is the Magna Carta Historically Significant?
Why Is the Magna
Carta Historically Significant?
Reasonable men are not reasonable when you're in the bubbles
which have characterized capitalism since the beginning of time.
Paul Samuelson
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