Wednesday, 4 June 2025

Stocks, More Disconnect From Tariff War Reality.

Baltic Dry Index. 1430 +08             Brent Crude 65.36

Spot Gold 3354                   US 2 Year Yield 3.96 +0.02  

US Federal Debt. 36.934 trillion  US GDP 30.049 trillion.

The chief business of the American people is business.

Calvin Coolidge

Stocks, to infinity and beyond. Well maybe. We are rapidly approaching the end of Trump’s 90 day pause in most trade war tariffs, with almost no trade deals announced.

Will President “TACO” chicken out or let the paused tariffs go into full effect?

The stock casinos are all in on President Trump chickening out on tariffs.

But what if President Trump doesn’t “chicken out?”

The stock casinos are about four weeks away from finding out.

In a stock casino game of chicken, Dinosaur Graeme thinks it best to sit this game out.

 South Korean stocks rise 2% to lead gains in Asia after opposition leader wins presidential election

Updated Wed, Jun 4 2025 12:36 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets advanced Wednesday after Wall Street rose on the back of a tech rally, led by chipmaker Nvidia, with South Korean stocks leading gains.

Shares in the artificial intelligence darling advanced nearly 3%, extending Monday’s gains and driving Nvidia’s market cap past Microsoft’s for the first time since January. Chip companies Broadcom and Micron Technology rose more than 3% and 4%, respectively.

South Korean markets rose as opposition party leader Lee Jae-myung won the presidential election. The Kospi index popped 2.34% to hit its highest level since August last year, while the small-cap Kosdaq advanced 1.4%.

Lee’s “election pledge has placed considerable weight on enhancing the value of the Korean stock market,” John Cho, Korea equity portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, said in a note.

His plan to amend the commercial law, which will broaden the legal duties of board members to include protecting the interests of minority shareholders, will “encourage boards to make fewer value-destructive decisions and more value-accretive ones,” Cho explained.

Looking ahead, he expects the incoming South Korean government to adopt aggressive fiscal stimulus to revive the domestic economy while also “pragmatically” handling international trade matters.

“We believe that the domestic economy is set to rebound from a low base in 2H 2024 / 1H 2025, and we continue to be positive on the globally competitive and uniquely positioned manufacturers, including HBMs [high bandwidth memory] for AI, health and beauty, and heavy industries,” Cho added in a Wednesday note.

In Japan, the benchmark Nikkei 225 climbed 0.87%, while the broader Topix index rose 0.54%.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 index moved up 0.52%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.72%

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 increased by 0.86%. The country’s economy grew 1.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, lower than the estimated 1.5% growth among economists polled by Reuters. The latest reading was unchanged from the previous quarter’s 1.3% year-on-year growth.

Meanwhile, India’s benchmark Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex were flat in early

U.S. futures were little changed after Wall Street rose on a tech rally and a better-than-expected jobs report showing that the U.S.′ labor market is holding up despite concerns of risks stemming from tariffs.

Overnight stateside, the broad-based S&P 500 index added 0.58% to close at 5,970.37, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 214.16 points, or 0.51%, ending at 42,519.64. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.81% and settled at 19,398.96.

Asia markets today June 4 2025

Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500 posts second day of gains: Live updates

Updated Wed, Jun 4 2025 12:18 AM EDT

U.S. stock futures were little changed early Wednesday, after the S&P 500 notched a second straight day of gains.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures moved down 41 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures lost 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.14%.

In extended trading, CrowdStrike Holdings shares dropped more than 6%, after the cybersecurity company posted soft guidance on revenue for the current quarter. Hewlett Packard Enterprise shares popped 3%, after the information technology company topped analysts’ expectations on the top and bottom lines.

Wall Street is coming off a solid session Tuesday, posting back-to-back gains. The 30-stock Dow rose more than 200 points, or 0.5%, for its fourth positive day. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite did even better, advancing 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively, bolstered by the rise in tech stocks. Nvidia rose nearly 3%, surpassing Microsoft to become the world’s most valuable public company once more.

The recent comeback rally has investors increasingly confident stocks have turned a corner on tariffs, especially after a series of reversals from President Donald Trump convinced traders the White House is mainly wielding high levies as a negotiating tool. A federal court striking down Trump’s tariffs just last week added to hopes the market has priced in the worst of the tariffs, though they were later reinstated temporarily by an appeals court.

The increasingly muted response to trade headlines has more market watchers certain there’s further upside for stocks, especially with cash that remains on the sidelines, and with policy developments more favorable to equities expected later this year. This week, Deutsche Bank’s chief U.S. equity and global strategist Binky Chadha raised his year-end S&P 500 forecast.

“We have a quiet week, and markets are rallying,” Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Closing Bell.” “I think the risk is now of a substantial leg-up rally from here.”

To be sure, others remain wary the full impact of tariff uncertainty is yet to be felt, and that upcoming economic indicators could start to show signs of softening.

Investors will get further insight on the state of the labor market this week, with the ADP private payrolls report due out Wednesday, ahead of weekly jobless claims on Thursday and the big May jobs report Friday. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book will also be posted Wednesday afternoon.

Earnings season also continues, with Dollar Tree reporting Wednesday morning before the open.

Stock market today: Live updates

In other news, with the 2025 US harvest season getting underway, the impending collapse of US farming due to the Trump tariff wars. Without Chinese buyers, where will farmers store this year’s harvests? Approx. 10 minutes.

BREAKING: U.S.’s Farm System COLLAPSE - 88% of U.S. Soybean Exports Just Disappeared

BREAKING: U.S.’s Farm System COLLAPSE - 88% of U.S. Soybean Exports Just Disappeared

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

U.S. growth forecast cut sharply by OECD as Trump tariffs sour global outlook

Published Tue, Jun 3 2025 3:00 AM EDT

Economic growth forecasts for the U.S. and globally were cut further by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development as President Donald Trump’s tariff turmoil weighs on expectations.

The U.S. growth outlook was downwardly revised to just 1.6% this year and 1.5% in 2026. In March, the OECD was still expecting a 2.2% expansion in 2025.

The fallout from Trump’s tariff policy, elevated economic policy uncertainty, a slowdown of net immigration and a smaller federal workforce were cited as reasons for the latest downgrade.

Global growth, meanwhile, is also expected to be lower than previously forecast, with the OECD saying that “the slowdown is concentrated in the United States, Canada and Mexico,” while other economies are projected to see smaller downward revisions.

“Global GDP growth is projected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% this year and in 2026 ... on the technical assumption that tariff rates as of mid-May are sustained despite ongoing legal challenges,” the OECD said.

It had previously forecast global growth of 3.1% this year and 3% in 2026.

“The global outlook is becoming increasingly challenging,” the report said. “Substantial increases in barriers to trade, tighter financial conditions, weaker business and consumer confidence and heightened policy uncertainty will all have marked adverse effects on growth prospects if they persist.”

More

U.S. growth forecast cut further by OECD as Trump tariffs sour outlook

America's biggest bank JPMorgan warns US at risk of a fate more terrifying than a recession

2 June 2025

JPMorgan Chase has warned that the stock market's rally could soon come to an end as the economy is likely to enter a period of stagflation. 

Analysts for the world's biggest and most powerful bank have warned that  stagflation - when prices rise and economic growth slows at the same time - could hit the economy this summer.  

Economists consider stagflation, last seen in the US in the 1970s, to be worse than a recession. 

Stocks have whipsawed following President Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcements in April, and last month the S&P 500 posted its best results since 2023. 

However, stagflation would send stocks down, hitting regular Americans' 401(K)s and investments. 

'Post the recent bounce, we think softer leg is in store next, which could resemble a bit of a stagflationary episode,' JPMorgan said in a research note on Monday. 

The ongoing uncertainty of the US's trade relations with its biggest partners will also keep stocks in check, the strategists wrote. 

The 'current tariffs picture is worse than most thought at the start of the year,' they added. 

Despite the recent rally the S&P 500 is only up 0.5 percent this year, underperforming European and Asian benchmarks. 

Last month JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the threat of stagflation was probably double that of other analysts predictions, and said Americans should prepare. 

'There's a chance that (we'll) have stagflation (in the US),' Dimon told Bloomberg. 

He said that while he was not making a certain prediction, 'we have to be prepared for something like that.'  

'Global fiscal deficits are inflationary. I think the remilitarization of the world is inflationary. The restructuring of trade is inflationary,' he said during the TV interview.  

At the bank's annual investor day earlier in May, Dimon told industry leaders that the chances of stagflation returning are probably twice that of what others have projected.

The billionaire also said that markets were showing an 'extraordinary amount of complacency' in the face of the economic threats of Trump's tariffs.

Dimon said the full effect of Trump's aggressive trade policies has yet to be felt. 

More

America's biggest bank JPMorgan warns US at risk of a fate more terrifying than a recession

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

Doctors issue urgent health warning as dangerous new Covid virus from China triggers US outbreak

3 June 2025

A dangerous new Covid variant from China is surging in California, health officials warn. 

The California Department of Public Health warned this week the highly contagious NB.1.8.1 strain has been detected in the state, making it the sixth US state to be exposed. 

The variant has also been detected in international travelers arriving in Washington stateVirginiaHawaiiRhode Island and New York City since March.

Health officials said the variant was first detected in March and has been on the rise since May 1. 

Since April, NB.1.8.1 has increased from two percent of Covid cases in California to 19 percent, according to health department data. 

Lab tests suggest NB.1.8.1, which was first detected in January in China, is more infectious than currently circulating strains, which means it could lead to a spike in infections and hospital admissions.

World Health Organization data also suggests it makes up more than half the variants currently circulating. 

The warning comes as some physicians in California have called for the return of mask mandates to emulate countries like Hong Kong. 

More

Doctors issue urgent health warning as dangerous new Covid virus from China triggers US outbreak

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Another day, more EV fires and EVs are still only a tiny part of the transport sector. Just wait until EVs are the only transport vehicles allowed. For now though, try not to park near an EV.

Welshpool factory fire was caused by electric vehicle

2nd June 2025

CREWS from five Powys fire stations were called out to a fire in the early hours of Saturday morning (May 31) which saw an electric vehicle catch fire and spread to a nearby factory in Welshpool.

Mid and West Wales Fire and Rescue Service (MWWFRS) crews from Welshpool, MontgomeryLlanfair CaereinionLlanfyllin and Newtown Fire Stations were called to the incident in Buttington.

MWWFRS said the Powys crews were assisted by Shropshire Fire and Rescue Service.

“At 1.09am on Saturday, May 31, crews responded to a fire involving one electric vehicle,” said a MWWFRS spokesperson. 

“The fire had spread to a nearby commercial property, measuring approximately 10 metres by 10 metres. 

“Crews utilised one vehicle fire blanket, four breathing apparatus sets, one main jet, two hose reel jets and established a water shuttle system to extinguish the fire.

“The vehicle was severely damaged by fire and heat damage was caused to the commercial property. Crews left the scene at 3.16am.”

A post on the Oswestry Fire Station Facebook page confirmed the incident, with footage captured of firefighters dealing with the incident.

The fire originated from an electric car fire, which then spread to the side of a neighbouring factory building.

“An electric car fire had spread to the side of a neighbouring factory,” said the station’s post.

“Shrewsbury's aerial ladder platform also joined the incident to assist with checking the roof space for hot spots.”

Welshpool factory fire was caused by electric vehicle | County Times

Crews douse EV fire in Abbotsford Costco parking lot

Published: June 01, 2025 at 1:35PM EDT

An electric vehicle exploded and burst into flames in a Costco parking lot in Abbotsford Saturday afternoon, according to authorities.

First responders were called to the big-box store on Sumas Way around 1:30 p.m. for “reports of a vehicle explosion,” the Abbotsford Police Department said in a social media post, adding “fortunately, no injuries have been reported.”

Firefighters remained on scene for several hours, according to a statement from the City of Abbotsford.

“Crews arrived to a fully engulfed vehicle and were able to put out the fire quickly through the use of fire blankets and water, minimizing the spread to other vehicles,” a spokesperson wrote.

“Crews remained on site yesterday afternoon while the vehicle continued to cool so it could be transported off site.”

The cause of the fire is under investigation. The parking lot and gas station were closed, but have since reopened.

Crews douse EV fire in Abbotsford Costco parking lot

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

You have to stand every day three or four hours of visitors. Nine-tenths of them want something they ought not to have. If you keep dead-still they will run down in three or four minutes. If you even cough or smile they will start up all over again.

Calvin Coolidge

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