Baltic Dry Index. 1680 -11 Brent Crude 66.76
Spot Gold 3340 US 2 Year Yield 4.03 +0.02
US Federal Debt. 36.963 trillion
US GDP 30.064 trillion.
The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.
Ben Bernanke
In the stock casinos, trade talk optimism. After two days of talking, both sides have reached a “framework”.
“We have reached a framework to implement the Geneva consensus and the call between the two presidents,” Lutnick told reporters.
Supposedly, rare earths for the latest semi-conductor chips and equipment, but who knows how long either side will honour the new “framework”.
While the US Treasury Secretary exited the Great London Trade Pow Wow, the GLTPW will continue today under US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and US Trade Representative Greer.
Later today, the US updates the CPI, the first of this week’s two US May inflation indexes.
Asia-Pacific
markets climb on optimism over progress in U.S.-China trade talks
Updated
Wed, Jun 11 2025 12:08 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific
markets climbed Wednesday as trade discussions between the U.S. and China led
to an agreement, representatives from both
sides said.
The deal
is now awaiting a nod from the leaders of the two countries.
“We have
reached a framework to implement the Geneva consensus and the call between the
two presidents,” Lutnick told reporters. That echoed comments made to reporters
by Li Chenggang, China’s international trade representative and a vice minister
at China’s Commerce Ministry.
The talks
had continued
for a second day in London on Tuesday. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott
Bessent said he was departing the ongoing trade talks, but Lutnick and U.S.
Trade Representative Jamieson Greer would remain to continue the negotiations.
Discussions could extend into Wednesday if needed, Lutnick said previously.
Mainland
China’s CSI 300 index
advanced 0.77% higher while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.9%.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 added 0.45% while
the broader Topix index was flat.
In South
Korea, the Kospi index
advanced 0.71%, briefly nearing its highest level in 42 months earlier in the
session, while the small-cap Kosdaq popped 1.71%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 increased by
0.29%, after briefly hitting a new high earlier in the session.
The Nifty
50 rose 0.11% at the open.
U.S.
stock futures were near the flatline in early Asian hours, as
investors waited for more insight on trade discussions, as well as the release
of May’s U.S. consumer inflation report.
Overnight
stateside, all three key benchmarks rose on hopes for a positive resolution
on the trade talks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added
105.11 points, or 0.25%, and closed at 42,866.87. The S&P 500 rose 0.55% to end
at 6,038.81, while the Nasdaq
Composite gained 0.63% and settled at 19,714.99. It was the third
positive session for both indexes.
Asia
stock markets today: live updates for June 11 2025
China, U.S.
officials reach agreement for allowing rare-earth, tech exchange. Now it’s up
to Trump and Xi
Published
Tue, Jun 10 2025 8:01 PM EDT
The U.S.
and China have reached an agreement on trade, representatives from both sides
said after a second day of high-level talks in London, with the deal now
awaiting a nod from the leaders of the two countries.
“We have
reached a framework to implement the Geneva consensus and the call between the
two presidents,” U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters.
That
echoed comments to reporters from Li Chenggang, China’s international trade
representative and a vice minister at China’s Commerce Ministry.
U.S.
President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke by phone late
last week, stabilizing what had become a fraught relationship with both
countries accusing each other of violating the Geneva trade agreement. At a
meeting in Switzerland in mid-May, the world’s two largest economies had agreed
to a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs added in April, and a rollback of
certain other measures.
Lutnick
said he and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will head back to
Washington, D.C., to “make sure President Trump approves” the deal outline. If
Xi also agrees, then “we will implement the framework,” Lutnick said.
The fact
that the two sides will now brief their leaders “is a clear sign that some
disagreements or unresolved details still require internal discussion,” said
Jianwei Xu, senior economist at Natixis. The framework agreement signals a
commitment to de-escalate and continue the dialogue process, but whether it
will lead to “concrete agreements or substantive breakthroughs” continues to be
uncertain, he said.
Chinese
restrictions on rare-earth exports to the U.S. are a “fundamental part” of the
latest agreement and the U.S. expects the issue “will be resolved in this
framework implementation,” Lutnick said.
He
indicated U.S. restrictions on sales of advanced tech to China in recent weeks
would be rolled back as Beijing approves rare-earth exports.
“This
deal is taped together by the two sides’ leverage over each other, not common
principles or shared interests,” said Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and trustee
chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies in Washington, D.C. “The chances for further stops and
starts is quite high.”
While
Chinese state media had been quick to announce Xi’s call with Trump last week,
Beijing’s official mouthpieces were conspicuously silent more than one hour
after Lutnick’s comments, except for a lower-profile mention citing Vice
Commerce Minister Li as saying that the talks helped build bilateral trust.
On
Tuesday local time in London, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told
reporters he was headed back to the U.S. in order to testify before Congress.
Chinese
Vice Premier He Lifeng, the lead negotiator on trade talks with the U.S., and
Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao also participated in this week’s
discussions.
China’s
CSI 300 index was trading slightly higher, while U.S. stock futures were down
as investors awaited details on the trade framework.
U.S.-China
agree on framework to implement Geneva trade consensus
Futures inch
lower as investors await details on China-U.S. trade framework; inflation
report looms: Live updates
Updated
Wed, Jun 11 2025 8:45 PM EDT
Stock
futures ticked lower on Tuesday night as investors sought details on a trade
policy consensus reached between the U.S. and China. They also anticipated the
release of May’s consumer inflation report.
Futures
tied to the S&P 500 were
off 0.16%, while Nasdaq 100
futures inched down 0.17%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost
55 points, or 0.14%.
U.S. and
Chinese officials reached a
consensus on trade after a second day of talks in London, according to
an NBC transcript.
---- The discussions are a key focus for investors and a
broader market that remains jittery toward any jolts on trade policy. Both
China and the U.S. previously agreed to temporarily
pause high tariffs on one another in May, although a fully ironed out
agreement has yet to materialize.
---- Even as stocks have been resurging,
tariff fears and rising bond yields could hang over the market, according to
Deutsche Bank.
“One key
concern is that the Trump administration, buoyed by the market rebound, may
resume aggressive tariff rhetoric—potentially triggering renewed retaliation
from China and Europe, as seen earlier this year,” the firm’s group chief
economist David Folkerts-Landau said in a Tuesday note.
“At the
same time, rising long-end bond yields are amplifying fiscal concerns globally,
particularly given plans for expanded deficits across multiple major
economies,” he added. “With several countries already on unsustainable debt
paths, the events of 2025 may have accelerated an inevitable reckoning.”
Investors
will get further insight into the U.S. economy on Wednesday morning as the
Bureau of Labor Statistics rolls out May’s reading of the consumer
price index. Economists polled by Dow Jones call for a 0.2%
month-over-month increase, while headline CPI is anticipated to have grown 2.4%
from 12 months earlier. A hot report could spook investors who are already on
edge over inflationary pressures.
“Ultimately
this report is not expected to cause any significant changes to the Fed’s
current wait and see approach when it comes to setting rates,” said Sam
Millette, director of fixed income at Commonwealth Financial Network. “With
that being said, we’ll have to wait and see if the report shows the anticipated
modest rise in price pressure that’s expected or if there are any surprises in
store for investors.”
Stock
market today: Live updates
In other
news, a gigantic over reaction?
Ag experts say crop
fungus smuggled by Chinese researchers is already prevalent in US
June 10,
2025
When
Damon Smith first read reports that two Chinese nationals were accused of
smuggling a dangerous biological pathogen into the United States with the
potential to be used as an agroterrorism weapon, he thought it was possibly a
new pathogen.
The
University of Wisconsin-Madison Division of Extension field crops pathologist
soon realized that the alleged dangerous biological weapon was a common fungus
that most farmers and ag experts are already familiar. The fungus Fusarium
graminearum more commonly known in wheat as "scab" or "head
blight" and in corn as "gib" or "ear rot" is already
widespread in the U.S. crop fields.
Smith
says Midwest farmers have been dealing with the disease for over 35 years.
According to the U.S. Department of Justice, "head blight" in some
crops is responsible for billions of dollars in economic losses globally each
year.
"Under
conditions that are favorable for disease, such as warm and wet conditions, the
disease can significantly impact yield and grain quality," Smith said.
Who was
implicated in smuggling pathogens into the U.S.?
According
to an FBI criminal complaint, Zunyong Liu, 34, a researcher currently in China,
brought the fungus into the United States while visiting his girlfriend,
Yunqing Jian, 33, in July 2024, Reuters reported. Liu was denied entry into the
U.S. when the pathogen was found in his luggage. He told authorities that he
wanted to conduct research on the fungus at a University of Michigan laboratory
where Jian worked.
A third
Chinese researcher was arrested on Sunday after landing at the Detroit
Metropolitan airport on a flight from Shanghai, according to charging
documents. She was charged with smuggling goods into the US and making false
statements.
Upon
Chengxuan Han’s arrival to the US, border officers discovered Han sent four
packages in both 2024 and 2025 addressed to individuals associated with a
laboratory at the University of Michigan that “contained biological material
related to round worms” from China, the New York Post reported.
Han
admitted to shipping the biological materials to the lab from her research as a
Ph.D. student from the College of Life Science and Technology in the Huazhong
University of Science and Technology (HUST) in Wuhan, according to court
documents.
How is
the fungus controlled in the U.S.?
Agricultural
experts interviewed by Reuters says the fungus can be prevented by spraying
pesticides. Researchers have also developed strains of wheat that are resistant
to the fungus.
The
pathogen is only dangerous if ingested regularly and in large quantities. Smith
says the fungus can produce the mycotoxins referred to as deoxynivalenol (DON
or vomitoxin) and zearalenone. DON can induce vomiting and gastrointestinal
issues in cattle. The second can affect animal reproductive systems.
More
Ag experts cast
doubt on FBI claim that smuggled crop fungus is a threat
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
'No
recession bet whatsoever': The stock market isn't pricing in any sort of economic
downturn, investment firm says
June
9, 2025
Investors
are betting that the US economy will continue to grow and they're behaving as
if there's "no recession risk
whatsoever," market research firm The Leuthold Group wrote in a note last
week.
That
conclusion is based on a key indicator, the S&P 500 Cyclical/Defensive
Ratio, which compares the most economically sensitive sectors, like consumer
discretionary, industrials, and materials, to more stable areas of the market
such as consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities.
The
Leuthold Group calculates this metric based on price to earnings, price to cash
flow, price to sales, and price to book ratios.
Cyclical
stocks typically trade at a discount during recessions because their earnings
are more vulnerable to economic slowdowns. Investors, meanwhile, pay a relative
premium for the safety of defensive stocks with more inelastic demand.
In
May, this ratio hit an all-time high of 1.19, indicating a 19% premium for
cyclical stocks relative to defensive shares. This isn't an anomaly, as the
ratio has held above 1.05 — placing it in the top 10% of historical readings —
for 13 consecutive months.
Recession
fears have
come down since reaching a fever pitch in April. After the announcement of a
90-day tariff
pause and trade
negotiations with
China, the odds of a recession have fallen from 66% to 28% on prediction
market Polymarket.
However,
several Wall
Street strategists are
still concerned, as a 28% chance of recession is still higher than the
long-term average of around 15%. Torsten
Sløk,
chief economist at Apollo, and Jamie
Dimon,
CEO of JPMorgan, have been ringing the bell on stagflation concerns.
According
to The Leuthold Group, a 28% chance of recession is still far too high based on
what the market is pricing in. Ahead of past recessions — including 2000, 2008,
and 2020 — cyclical sectors were trading at steep discounts to their more
stable counterparts.
The
average valuation gap at pre-recession market peaks was about 25% in favor of
defensives. During these recessions, the average valuation gap increased to
38%.
"Much
of the recession 'discount' in the comparative valuations of Cyclicals occurred
during the twelve months (or earlier) preceding the pre-recession stock market
peak. Today, that process does not appear to have begun," the firm wrote.
The
elevated S&P 500 Cyclical/Defensive Ratio also reflects some valuation
shifts that have occurred over the last few decades. Defensive
stock valuations
have been declining as long-term growth for consumer staples and healthcare
companies slow down.
These
companies now trade at a 10% discount to the S&P 500, compared to a medium
premium of 10% since 1990. During previous recessionary bear markets,
defensives traded at a 33% premium relative to the rest of the market,
suggesting room for a defensive comeback if recessionary fears return. If this
does occur, investors heavily exposed to cyclicals will suffer the most.
Investors
are continuing to bet on the most economically sensitive parts of the market.
As long as cyclical stocks retain their valuation premium against defensives,
it seems like there's no recession scare to be worried about.
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Doctors warn of painful symptom in new Covid Nimbus variant NB.1.8.1
9 June 2025
Over five years on from
the onslaught of Covid-19 in the UK, officials are grappling with a novel
strain that's infiltrating countries worldwide.
Dubbed the Nimbus
variant, or NB. 1.8.1, this version of the virus has cropped up in 22 countries
so far and is behind surging infections in India, Hong Kong, Singapore, and
Thailand. The escalating global concern reached British shores with the UK
Health Security Agency (UKHSA) confirming its presence in the UK last Thursday,
June 5.
While only 13 cases have
been spotted across England to date, health chiefs are mindful of the
burgeoning representation of NB. 1.8.1 internationally, signalling an uptick in
the proportion of global Covid infections attributed to this variant,
reports the Manchester Evening News. Initially identified on January 21, the World
Health Organisation (WHO) elevated NB. 1.8.1 to a strain "under
monitoring" as early as May 23, noting its climb to account for 10.7% of
worldwide cases by late April 2025, a stark jump from merely 2.5% a month
earlier.
Yet, despite the spread,
the WHO isn't currently endorsing any new travel bans in response to the Nimbus
strain. Echoing international insights, Dr Gayatri Amirthalingam, Deputy
Director at UKHSA, remarked: "NB.1.8.1 has been detected in small numbers
in the UK to date, but international data suggests that it is growing as a
proportion of all COVID-19 cases.
"Based on the
available information so far however, there is no evidence to suggest that this
variant causes more severe disease than previous variants, or that the vaccines
in current use will be less effective against it."
Key symptoms of Covid NB. 1.8.1 to look out for
Medics have issued a
warning about one distinctive and painful symptom that could indicate you've
been infected with Covid.
Symptoms of the new
strain are thought to be similar to earlier versions of the Covid virus,
particularly of the Omicron variant, a highly transmissible version of Covid
that first emerged in November 2021.
The Nimbus variant is a
sub-variant of Omicron, which tends to cause mostly mild symptoms like a runny
nose, sore throat, and other cold-like symptoms, as opposed to lower
respiratory tract symptoms.
According to Dr Naveed
Asif, GP at The London General Practice, the NB. 1.8.1 variant has a
distinctive symptom, a severe sore throat known as a "razor blade
sensation". This is a sharp, stabbing pain when you swallow, often at the
back of the throat.
More
Doctors warn of painful symptom in new Covid Nimbus variant NB.1.8.1
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Scientists build 29.5%-efficiency all-perovskite tandem solar
cells through universal interfacial engineering
An
international team of researchers used a novel interfacial treatment to improve
the performance of perovskite solar cells across a range of narrow and wide
bandgap single junction, tandem, and mini-module samples. An all-perovskite
tandem solar cell demonstrated its use with a certified efficiency of 29.5%.
June 10, 2025
An international research team led
by Huazhong University of Science and Technology was able to improve (Sn-Pb) single junction tin lead
perovskite solar cells, as well as all-perovskite tandem and mini-module
variations. using a novel mercapto-functionalized scaffold interfacial
engineering strategy.
In the study, “Mercapto-functionalized
scaffold improves perovskite buried interfaces for tandem photovoltaics,”
published in nature communications, the researchers describe how
their approach enabled a single-junction narrow bandgap (NBG) tin lead
perovskite solar cell with a power conversion efficiency of 23.7%, a
two-terminal (2T) all-perovskite tandem solar cell with a certified efficiency
of 29.5% and 24.7%-efficient mini-modules measuring 5 × 5 cm2.
As for stability testing, the modified
solar cells consistently outperformed control devices, according to the
research.
“The compatibility of our strategy
across multiple architectures was highly encouraging. We successfully applied
it to narrow-bandgap tin lead (Sn-Pb) perovskites, wide-bandgap (WBG)
perovskites, and conventional-bandgap perovskites,” Zonghao Liu, corresponding
author, told pv magazine. “This universal interfacial
engineering approach demonstrates significant potential for scaling perovskite
solar modules.”
----- Several devices were demonstrated and characterized in the study. The NBG
solar cells had an open circuit voltage of up to 0.89 V and an efficiency of
23.7%. Further tests with the MSN-SH treatment were conducted on neat lead
cells with bandgaps of 1.52 eV, 1.68 eV, and 1.77 eV and compared to control
devices. The team found that the buried interface modification method was
consistently effective. In particular, the 1.77 eV wide bandgap (WBG) solar
cell achieved an efficiency of up to 20.6% with an open-circuit voltage of 1.33
V. in line with the certified results.
To further demonstrate the technology, a
monolithic 2T all-perovskite tandem cell was fabricated. It had a certified
efficiency of 29.50% and a maximum power point efficiency of 28.7%. The
performance was certified by the Shanghai Institute of Microsystem and
Information Technology in China.
“Encouragingly, this is one of the
highest performance values reported for the monolithic two-terminal
all-perovskite tandems, to the best of our knowledge,” said the researchers.
More
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Whenever
destroyers appear among men, they start by destroying money, for money is men’s
protection and the base of a moral existence. Destroyers seize gold and leave
to its owners a counterfeit pile of paper. This kills all objective standards
and delivers men into the arbitrary power of an arbitrary setter of values.
Gold was an objective value, an equivalent of wealth produced. Paper is a
mortgage on wealth that does not exist, backed by a gun aimed at those who are
expected to produce it. Paper is a check drawn by legal looters upon an account
which is not theirs: upon the virtue of the victims. Watch for the day when it
bounces, marked: “Account Overdrawn.”
Ayn
Rand
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