Baltic
Dry Index. 1968 +64 Brent Crude 74.94
Spot Gold 3431 US 2 Year Yield 3.96 +0.06
US Federal Debt. 36.983 trillion
US GDP 30.074 trillion.
With age comes wisdom, but sometimes age comes alone.
Oscar Wilde
Very little need for my input this morning as the articles below well cover the week ahead.
Still, Israel has one warship in the Red Sea and another in the Gulf of Aden. Iran has two drone ships just outsides the Strait of Hormuz. If an action were to take place between the two near the Strait, crude oil prices will likely jump, tanker rates soar and some tankers get routed away from the Strait, generating an oil and LNG temporary shortage.
Unlikely, but this is no time for complacency in the stock casinos and commodity markets. Probably a good time to keep the car's fuel tank topped up this week.
Asia-Pacific
markets mostly rise as investors parse China data, assess escalating
Israel-Iran tensions
Updated
Mon, Jun 16 2025 12:05 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific
markets mostly rose Monday, as investors assessed escalating Israel-Iran
tensions and parsed a slew of data from China.
Oil
prices jumped as Israel and Iran exchanged strikes, while gold prices rallied,
as investors sought refuge in the safe haven metal with equity markets sliding
globally. The attacks continued over
the weekend.
Investors
kept a close watch on Chinese markets as the Asian superpower released a slew
of data points, including its retail
sales and industrial output figures for May. Retails sales in May jumped
6.4% from the previous year, while industrial output slowed to 5.8% year on
year.
Mainland
China’s CSI 300 index was
flat, while Hong Kong’s Hang
Seng Index was 0.12% lower.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 climbed 1.12%,
while the broader Topix index advanced 0.67%.
In South
Korea, the Kospi index
gained 0.83%, while the small-cap Kosdaq moved up 0.55% in choppy trade.
Over in
Australia, the S&P/ASX
200 was flat.
Meanwhile,
India’s Nifty 50 traded
0.18% higher, while the BSE Sensex index was up 0.24%.
U.S.
equity futures moved up during early Asia hours.
All three
key benchmarks on Wall
Street saw a major sell-off last Friday as the Israel-Iran attacks
pushed energy prices higher and added another complication at a time of
heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell
769.83 points, or 1.79%, ending at 42,197.79. The S&P 500 dropped 1.13% to close at
5,976.97, while the Nasdaq
Composite lost 1.30% and settled at 19,406.83.
Asia
stock markets today: live updates for June 16 2025
Stock futures
rise amid rising geopolitical risk as Israel-Iran attacks continue: Live
updates
Updated
Mon, Jun 16 2025 7:59 PM EDT
Stock
futures rose before Monday’s session as the escalating conflict between Israel
and Iran spiked oil prices and raised investors’ concerns about the global
economy.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures
moved up 9 points, or 0.02%. S&P
500 futures added 0.14%, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose
0.19%.
WTI crude oil futures surged another
3% Sunday night as trading began to above $75 a barrel.
Traders
have been closely watching the Middle East after Israel’s strike on
Iran last week. Iran launched missiles in retaliation, increasing the severity
of conflict in the region.
That
prompted a sell-off in stocks on Friday, with the Dow tumbling more
than 700 points in the session. All three of the major indexes dropped more
than 1% in the trading day. Friday’s declines pulled the three indexes into red
territory for the week. The Dow finished the week down 1.3%, while the S&P
500 and Nasdaq Composite lost 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively.
Oil
prices jumped following Israel’s attack. Gold prices also rallied, as the metal
is considered a safe haven trade that investors flock to in times of market
volatility.
The
attacks continued through
the weekend, with the two countries targeting each others’ energy facilities,
an escalation which could rattle the global economy and markets further in the
new week. Iran said it is considering shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, a key
route for the global oil market.
“The
strikes represent the largest attack on Iranian territory since the 1980s,” Ed
Mills, Raymond James’ Washington policy analyst, wrote to clients in a note.
“The risks of regional escalation are heightened; the extent to which
hostilities could spread is likely contingent on the extent of U.S./Russian
impacts/involvement in the coming weeks and days.”
Investors
will monitor manufacturing survey data due Monday morning, which comes ahead of
the Federal Reserve’s interested rate decision on Wednesday. Fed funds futures
are pricing in a nearly 97% likelihood of the central bank keeping rates
unchanged, per CME’s FedWatch tool even as President Donald Trump has
been pressuring Fed Chief Jerome Powell for a rate cut. Higher oil prices from
the Middle East conflict likely further reduce the odds the Fed will ease
monetary policy anytime soon.
Stock
market today: Live updates
Oil News: Crude
Oil Futures Set for More Gains as Iran Conflict Threatens Supply
Updated:
Jun 16, 2025, 03:41 GMT+00:00
Crude oil
markets surged over the past three sessions as tensions between Israel and Iran
erupted into direct military conflict. Brent
crude futures closed at $74.23 a barrel on Friday, jumping $4.87, or
7.02%, after soaring over 13% intraday. West
Texas Intermediate (WTI) also rallied sharply, fueled by Israeli
airstrikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. These developments mark the most
significant price spike since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in 2022.\
Last
week, Light Crude Oil Futures settled at $72.98, up $8.40 or +13.01%. Brent
Crude Oil Futures finished at $73.535, up $7.30 or +11.02%.
OPEC and
Iran in Focus as Infrastructure Takes Direct Hits
Israel’s
strikes targeted critical oil and gas infrastructure, including Iran’s South
Pars gas field—the largest in the world—which partially suspended operations
after a fire. Additional strikes hit the Tehran refinery, fuel depots, and
offshore gas platforms. These attacks mark the first time Israeli forces have
hit Iranian energy assets directly, escalating fears of a broader regional
conflict.
This
supply shock hits as OPEC+ continues easing curbs, raising June output by
411,000 bpd. While this decision had previously pressured oil prices, the
direct threat to Iranian supply now overshadows concerns over increased OPEC
production.
Federal
Reserve Policy and U.S. Output Offer Limited Cushion
Although
U.S. production remains near record highs at 13.5 million bpd, it’s projected
to taper slightly into late 2026. Meanwhile, high fuel costs could reignite
inflation worries just as the Federal Reserve navigates monetary policy. A
sudden spike in oil prices may complicate rate decisions if inflation
expectations become unanchored.
Geopolitical
Risk Premium Returns—How High Can Brent Go?
Goldman
Sachs projects Brent could briefly touch $90/bbl under current conflict levels,
and $100+ in a worst-case scenario involving Strait of Hormuz disruption.
However, analysts caution that a complete closure of the strait would hurt
Iran’s own economy and remains an unlikely outcome. Still, this weekend’s
events represent a clear shift from pricing in theoretical risk to dealing with
active disruption.
More
Oil
News: Crude Oil Futures Set for More Gains as Iran Conflict Threatens Supply |
FXEmpire
G-7 leaders
gather in Canada for summit overshadowed by Middle East crisis and Trump’s
tariffs
Published
Sun, Jun 15 2025 4:26 AM EDT
Leaders
of some of the world’s biggest economic powers will arrive in the Canadian Rockies
on Sunday for a Group of Seven (G-7) summit overshadowed by a widening war
across the Middle East and U.S. President Donald Trump’s unresolved trade war with allies and rivals alike.
Israel’s
strikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliation, which appeared to catch many world
leaders unawares, are the latest sign of a more volatile world as Trump seeks
to withdraw the U.S. from its role as world policeman.
Speaking
on a flight to Canada to attend the summit, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer
said he had discussed efforts to de-escalate the situation with Trump and
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as other world leaders.
Britain
is sending Royal Air Force jets and other military reinforcements to the Middle
East.
“We do
have longstanding concerns about the nuclear program Iran has. We do recognize
Israel’s right to self-defense, but I’m absolutely clear that this needs to
de-escalate. There is a huge risk of escalation for the region and more
widely,” Starmer said, adding he expected “intense discussions” would continue
at the summit.
Trump is
summit’s wild card
As summit
host, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has decided to abandon the annual
practice of issuing a joint statement, or communique, at the end of the
meeting.
With
other leaders wanting to talk to Trump in an effort to talk him out of imposing
tariffs, the summit risks being a series of bilateral conversations rather than
a show of unity.
Trump is
the summit wild card. Looming over the meeting are Trump’s inflammatory threats
to make Canada the 51st state and take over Greenland. French President Emmanuel Macron is making a highly symbolic stop in Greenland on
his way to Canada, meeting the Arctic territory’s leader and Denmark’s prime
minister aboard a Danish helicopter carrier.
Macron,
who is one of the very few leaders to have known Trump during his first term,
was the first European leader to visit the White House after Trump took office,
emerging unscathed from the Oval Office encounter.
But
despite the two leaders’ sporadic bromance, Macron’s approach to Trump has
failed to bear major results, with France caught up in the president’s planned
tariffs on the European Union.
Nor did
it bring any U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine despite Macron’s efforts,
together with Starmer, to build a coalition of nations that could deploy forces
after any ceasefire with Russia, with the hope it would convince the Trump
administration to provide backup.
Trump is
scheduled to arrive late Sunday in Kananaskis, Alberta. Bilateral meetings
between other leaders are possible Sunday, but the summit program does not get
underway until Monday.
----Leaders who are not part of the G-7
but have been invited to the summit by Carney include the heads of state of
India, Ukraine, Brazil, South Africa, South Korea, Australia, Mexico and the
UAE. Avoiding tariffs will continue to be top of mind.
“Leaders,
and there are some new ones coming, will want to meet Donald Trump,” Boehm
said. “Trump doesn’t like the big round table as much he likes the one-on-one.”
Bilateral
meetings with the American president can be fraught as Trump has used them to
try to intimidate the leaders of Ukraine and South Africa.
More
G7 leaders gather
in Canada for summit overshadowed by crisis
Airlines divert,
suspend flights after Israel’s strike on Iran closes airspace in Middle East
Published
Fri, Jun 13 2025 9:25 AM EDT Updated Fri, Jun 13 2025 8:03 PM EDT
Airlines
around the world canceled
flights to Israel and were skirting a large swath of airspace in the
Middle East on Friday after Israel’s overnight missile strikes on Iran. Iran later launched drones toward Israeli territory.
Delta Air Lines on Friday afternoon said it was suspending its
service to Tel Aviv, Israel, until at least September, just weeks
after resuming flights there. It had most recently resumed flights on May
20, and as of last week Delta had said it was planning to increase service to
Israel later this year from New York to two daily nonstop flights, “responding
to strong winter demand.”
United Airlines suspended its Tel Aviv flights through July 31, and
said in statement that “we will continue to evaluate an appropriate return date
with the safety of our customers and crews as our top priority.”
Both
carriers’ Tel Aviv-bound flights turned around over the Atlantic Ocean to
return to the New York area after Israel’s strikes overnight. United put 26 of
its crew members who were on layover in Israel on Israeli airline El Al to get
back to the U.S., a spokesman said.
El Al has
since suspended service.
“Following
recent security developments and in accordance with the instructions from the
state’s security and aviation authorities to close Israeli airspace, all EL AL
and Sundor flights are suspended for the time being,” it said on its website.
The
carrier said it won’t take bookings until at least the end of June and warned
customers against going to Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport.
“For
customers currently abroad, we recommend arranging accommodation until there is
a change in security directives,” El Al said. “Flights that were en route to
Israel have been diverted to land at various EL AL destinations.”
Turkish
Airlines and European budget carrier Wizz Air also suspended Israel flights.
Germany’s Lufthansa said it was suspending Tel Aviv and Tehran service until
July 31 and flights to Jordan and Lebanon until at least June 20. Emirates said
it was canceling service from its base in Dubai to Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and
Iran.
Airlines
offered travel vouchers and waived change fees to customers affected by the
disruptions.
Escalating military conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine have forced airlines to repeatedly take longer and more costly routes to avoid
conflict zones.
Airlines divert,
suspend flights after Israel attacks Iran
In other
news, an interesting week. The Fed and BOE both get to announce their key interest rates during the week,
although the Israel v Iran war and the price of crude oil is more likely to
dominate.
What to watch next week: Inflation, Bank of
England interest rates, Accenture, Berkeley and Whitbread
14 June 2025
Inflation and interest rates will be in
focus in the coming week, along with earnings from companies across a range of
sectors.
Markets will be closely monitoring the
latest UK inflation data, which is due out a day before the Bank of England's
(BoE) next interest rate decision, particularly given the sharp
uptick in price growth in April.
----Here's more on what to look out for:
UK inflation – May data due to be released
on Wednesday 18 June
In April, UK inflation rose to 3.5%, which
was higher than the 3.3% forecast by economists and marked a jump from the 2.6%
recorded in March.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS),
which publishes the data, said that the uptick in inflation was driven by large
increases in household bills, with energy costs higher due to changes to the
Ofgem price cap.
The ONS later said the headline
inflation figure had been overstated, due to an error in car tax data,
revising it down to 3.4% – though this was still well above the March
reading.
Price growth is expected to remain sticky
with Bank of America (BAC) economists
saying in a note on Friday that they expected headline inflation to decline
slightly in the May consumer prices index (CPI) report to 3.3%.
Inflation data is closely watched by
central banks, as they have been using higher interest rates to try to bring
the rate of price growth back down to their 2% target.
Susannah Streeter, head of money and
markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: "Even though high wage growth is
easing off and vacancies are falling as firms hold back from recruiting, pay
growth is still outpacing inflation."
Annual wage growth excluding bonuses
in April
eased to 5.2%,
according to ONS data released last week, which marked the second consecutive
monthly decline.
"Add Trump’s tariffs into the mix of
uncertainty, and policymakers are set to stay in ‘wait-and-see mode’, taking longer
to assess the path ahead for prices," said Streeter. "But, with the
latest GDP (gross domestic product) figures indicating that the economy is
stagnating, financial markets are pricing in two more rate cuts this year, one
by September and another in December."
ONS data released on Thursday, showed that
the UK
economy shrank by 0.3% in April, which was a bigger contraction than the
0.1% expected by economists.
Bank of England interest rate decision –
Due to be announced on Thursday 19 June
The BoE is expected to keep interest rates
on hold at 4.25%, when it announces its decision on Thursday.
Bank of America (BAC) economists said
that the BoE "likely to retain its current guidance (careful, gradual and
meeting by meeting), given the uncertainty and recent data on inflation and
tariffs."
"Barring big upside surprises in May
inflation, we expect the minutes to imply that a summer skip to quarterly cuts
... is less likely," they said. "This could be by emphasizing that
progress in underlying inflation is continuing amid a looser labour market,
lower pay awards and weaker growth."
BofA's (BAC) economists
expected rate cuts in August, September and November, lowering the central
bank's base rate to 3.5%.
"Though we acknowledge that elevated
domestic inflation puts our call for a September cut at risk, we think the bar
to cut less than quarterly is high," they said.
The US Federal Reserve is also due to
announce its next interest rate decision next week, on Wednesday 18 June. The
Fed is expected to keep rates on hold once again at this meeting, keeping them
in the 4.25%-4.50% range.
"However, there are expectations that
the US
central bank could resume cutting rates in September, given cooling
inflation and job market data.
More
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Rachel
Reeves admits spiking energy prices and trade threats amid Iran-Israel conflict
are 'concern'
15
June 2025
Fears
are mounting about the economic impact of the Iran-Israel conflict today as
energy prices rise and trade routes face disruption.
Rachel Reeves admitted a
10 per cent spike in oil and gas costs and threats by Tehran to close the
Strait of Hormuz were 'cause for concern'.
In
TV interviews this morning, the Chancellor stressed energy costs were still
lower than 'a few months ago' - but said the potential fallout for UK plc was
partly driving the UK's calls for de-escalation.
Ms
Reeves dodged questions on whether her already-delicate spending plans would be
smashed by the crisis, insisting Britain has a 'strong economy'.
The
comments came as former BP boss Lord Browne warned oil prices would 'go up a
long way' if Iran shut the
Strait of Hormuz.
Deutsche
Bank has suggested that such action could see Brent crude hit $125 a barrel -
compared to around $74 now.
Former
Chancellor Lord Hammond told Sky News that the government was not in a good
position to respond to serious disruption because Ms Reeves had not rebuilt the
Treasury's reserve.
Ms
Reeves told Sky News: 'We've already seen in the last few days, for example,
oil and gas prices begin to go up'.
'Over
the course of this week, oil and gas prices, oil prices have gone up by just
over 10 per cent, they're still down compared to a few months ago but of course
we're keeping an eye on that,' she said.
'And
at the same time, as you say trade routes are very important through the Middle
East and we've seen disruption there in the past, partly because of the Houthi
attacks for example.
'And
so that is a cause for concern.'
Pressed
how bad the situation could be, she said: 'It is very early days and things are
moving quickly. But when we urge for de-escalation in the region that is in
part because of the lives at risk… but also because what happens in the Middle
East affects us here at home.
More
Rachel Reeves admits spiking energy prices and trade threats amid Iran-Israel conflict are 'concern'
The best way to enjoy your job is to imagine yourself without one.
Oscar Wilde
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
‘A
very Finnish thing’: Big sand battery starts storing wind and solar energy in
crushed soapstone
June
15, 2025
The world’s largest sand battery has started working in
the southern Finnish town of Pornainen.
Capable of storing 100 MWh of thermal energy from solar
and wind sources, it will enable residents to eliminate oil from their district
heating network, thereby cutting emissions by nearly 70 per cent.
“Our goal is to be climate neutral by 2035, and the
sand battery is a major step toward that,” says Mikko Paajanen, CEO of Loviisan
Lämpö, which runs the district heating network.
The industrial-scale solution from Finnish company
Polar Night Energy is now the primary production plant for the network. The
consumption of wood chips is set to drop by around 60 per cent as a result,
while the existing biomass boiler will continue to serve as a backup and
support the sand battery during peak demand periods.**
Sand batteries are getting bigger in Finland
The new 1 MW sand battery has a precursor. In May 2022,
Polar Night Energy rigged a smaller design to a power station in Kankaanpää
town.
Launched just as Russia cut off gas supplies in
retaliation for Finland joining NATO,
the project was a timely example of how renewable energy could be harnessed in
a new way.
Euronews Green previously spoke to the young Finnish
founders, Tommi Eronen and Markku Ylönen, who engineered the technology.
“We were talking about how - if we had the liberty to
design a community for ourselves - how could we solve the energy problem in
such a confined environment?” Markku said of the inspiration behind Polar Night
Energy in 2018.
“Then quite quickly, especially here in the north, you
run into the problem of energy storage if
you're trying to produce the energy as cleanly as possible.”
The friends started playing around with ideas, landing
on sand as an affordable way to store the plentiful electricity generated when
the sun is shining, or the wind blowing at a high rate.
Grains of sand, it turns out, are surprisingly roomy
when it comes to energy storage.
Finding a way to store these variable renewables is the crux of unleashing their full potential. Lithium batteries
work well for specific applications, explains Markku, but aside from
their environmental issues and expense, they cannot take in a huge amount of energy.
At 13 metres high and 15 metres wide, the sand battery
in Pornainen is around 10 times larger than the one at Vatajankoski power plant
in Kankaanpää. Polar Night Energy also previously connected a pilot plant to
the district heating network of Tampere city.
More
‘A very Finnish
thing’: Big sand battery starts storing wind and solar energy in crushed
soapstone
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Conformity
is the last refuge of the unimaginative
Oscar
Wilde
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