Friday, 27 June 2025

PCE Friday. Stocks, All News Is Good News Again!

Baltic Dry Index. 1553 -112             Brent Crude 68.12

Spot Gold 3295                     US 2 Year Yield 3.70 -0.04

US Federal Debt. 37.029 trillion

US GDP 30.097 trillion.

“People don't start wars, governments do.

Ronald Reagan

In the stock casinos, more Great Disconnect. All news is good news again.

Isn’t President Trump is about to force US interest rates lower.

The massive US debt, 23 percent larger than US GDP and rising, doesn’t matter.

China’s industrial profits falling for a seventh month, so what.

More trouble for Boeing’s 787, its good news.

US foreign tourism collapsing in response to President Trump’s tariffs and insults, who needs them?

US consumer confidence readings predicting recession, buy more stocks! What could possibly go wrong?

Japan’s Nikkei hits 6-month high as Asia-Pacific markets track gains on Wall Street

Updated Fri, Jun 27 2025 11:31 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose Friday, tracking Wall Street’s gains after White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt downplayed the impending start of the tariff deals, which have weighed on investor sentiment.

July 8 is when the so-called liberation day tariffs are set to take effect after a 90-day pause, and July 9 is the deadline for an EU deal to avoid 50% tariffs.

“The deadline is not critical,” said Leavitt. “Perhaps it could be extended, but that’s a decision for the president to make.”

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 climbed 1.59% to a six-month high and crossed the 40,000 mark for the first time since Jan. 7, while the broader Topix index advanced 1.3%.

The country’s capital city of Tokyo saw core consumer price index excluding fresh food and fuel rise 3.1% year on year in June, slower than the 3.6% increase seen in the previous month, and the 3.3% gain penciled by economists polled by Reuters.

In South Korea, the Kospi index fell 0.76%, while the small-cap Kosdaq dropped by 0.57%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.1%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 index increased by 0.31% after data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the country’s industrial profits fell 9.1% year on year in the first five months of the year.

Over in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 benchmark was flat.

U.S. stock futures were near the flatline in early Asian hours as investors awaited the release of several data points, including inflation, personal income, consumer spending and consumer sentiment.

Overnight stateside, the S&P 500 rose to within a whisker of a new record high, as the broad market index overcame a slew of macroeconomic challenges including tariff wars, geopolitical tensions and sticky inflation.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.8% to close at 6,141.02, bringing its gain on the week to 2.9% and putting it just a few points away from its intraday all-time high of 6,147.43 in late February.

The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.97% to 20,167.91, also inches away from a new record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 404.41 points, or 0.94%, to 43,386.84.

Asia stock markets today: live updates

CNBC Daily Open: Wall Street is chill, cheeky and cruising

Published Thu, Jun 26 2025 9:02 PM EDT

Markets this week? Totally unbothered — like they’re on a beach somewhere, sipping a cold drink and ignoring the headlines.

Geopolitical tensions flared (again), oil prices plunged, and defense stocks couldn’t make up their mind — but the broader market? Barely blinked. The S&P 500 flirted with record highs, the Nasdaq kept cruising thanks to its AI darlings, and even small caps got in on the action. It’s almost as if investors looked at the chaos and said, “Meh, we’re good.”

What’s driving this chilled-out mood? Part of it is rate-cut optimism creeping back in. Oil’s sudden drop took some inflation pressure off the table, and dovish murmurs from the Fed gave traders just enough hope that September could be in play for a cut. Bond yields eased, and risk appetite returned.

Sure, there are risks everywhere — from Middle East tensions to stretched valuations in some corners of the market — but right now, Wall Street seems to be in full summer mode. Cool, calm, and slightly detached.

Will it last? Hard to say. Markets have a habit of waking up just when you least expect it. But for now, they’re tuning out the noise and catching rays.

What you need to know today

Tariff pause “could be extended.′′ Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs are set to resume early July, but White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Thursday the deadlines are “not critical” and will depend on the U.S. President’s decision.

U.S. markets advanced Thursday. Buoyed by Leavitt’s comments, the S&P 500 closed at 6,141.02, just a few points away from its intra-day high. The Stoxx Europe 600 ticked up 0.09%. Mining and defense stocks were among the biggest gainers.

Tesla’s vice president of manufacturing and operations is out. Omead Afshar was fired by CEO Elon Musk amid declining sales in key markets. Chinese technology company Xiaomi on Thursday priced a new electric SUV lower than Tesla’s Model Y.

Nike expects a $1 billion hit from tariffs. During an earnings call on Thursday, Nike’s finance chief said the company will tweak its supply chains and increase prices to “mitigate” that cost. Nike beat Wall Street expectations for fiscal fourth-quarter earnings.

[PRO] Three AI stocks to play. Swiss banking giant UBS highlighted three pillars of artificial intelligence that will drive demand, and picked what it thinks will be winners in the space.

— Yeo Boon Ping

CNBC Daily Open: Wall Street is chill, cheeky and cruising

America’s Very Bad Mood Bodes Ill for Tone-Deaf Wall Street

June 26, 2025 at 11:18 PM GMT+1

American consumers aren’t feeling great. They’ve been feeling bad about everything from prices to the stock market. They’ve felt so bad, in fact, that Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment was stuck at one of its worst readings on record for two months this spring after plunging 29% in the first four months of 2025.

Over the 79 years of the survey, a drop this large this fast has almost always predicted a recession. Sentiment readings improved slightly at the start of June but still indicate Americans expect much higher prices and a much slower economy in the coming year.

It’s “dangerous to overlook” such negative consumer sentiment, says Joanne Hsu, the director of the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers. But that’s exactly what Wall Street’s been doing: As so-called soft indicators remain low, hard economic data like jobs are mostly holding up. Stocks have roared back from April lows.

It’s clear to Hsu that many investors and analysts don’t really understand the data they’re dismissing. And the survey is rarely wrong. In 1974, for instance, it spotted the worst recession since World War II, while ever-rising sales of TVs, cars and other consumer goods were tricking economists into thinking things were fine. When Wall Street eventually feels the negative vibes, more investors may find themselves in the mood to sell. —Jordan Parker Erb

America’s Very Bad Mood Bodes Ill for Tone-Deaf Wall Street - Bloomberg

China’s industrial profits plunge 9.1%, steepest fall in seven months

Published Thu, Jun 26 2025 9:40 PM EDT

China’s industrial profits plunged 9.1% in May from a year earlier, in the latest sign that Beijing’s stimulus efforts are falling short in boosting enterprises’ profitability.

That marked the largest monthly decline since October last year, when the industrial profits dropped 10%. Industrial profits are a key measure of the financial health of factories, mines and utilities in China.

Cumulative profits at major industrial firms fell 1.1% in the first five months of 2025, compared to a year earlier, the data showed.

The statistics bureau attributed the sharp decline in May to insufficient domestic demand and lower prices for industrial products.

In September last year, industrial profits recorded an eye-watering 27.1% year-on-year drop, leading Beijing to ramp up stimulus in its bid to reverse the slump in corporate earnings.

During the five-month period, the mining industry saw profits decline 29%, while manufacturing and utility industries saw modest profit gains.

Profits in the automotive manufacturing sector dropped 11.9% from a year earlier.

State-owned firms recorded a 7.4% drop in profits in the first five months, while non-state-owned businesses saw profits fall 1.5%.

Foreign industrial firms, including those with investments from Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan, saw a modest profit rise of 0.3% in the January to May period from a year ago.

The data followed a mixed bag of economic data out of China last month. China’s retail sales grew at their fastest rate since late 2023 in May, rising 6.4% from a year ago, as government subsidies helped boost consumption, while industrial output and fixed-asset investment both missed expectations.

More

China's industrial profits plunge 9.1% in May

In other news, more problems with the Boeing 787. Approx. 8 minutes.

FAA Just Revealed a Fatal Flaw in Boeing 787 – Why No One Is Talking About It…

FAA Just Revealed a Fatal Flaw in Boeing 787 – Why No One Is Talking About It…

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Fear of a global recession is now the main economic worry among Irish households

25 June 2025

The risk of a global recession has emerged as the biggest economic ­concern for Irish households.

It has jumped ahead of both the cost of housing and rent, and inflation, as a major worry for consumers, according to the latest Bank of Ireland’s Savings and Investment Index.

Plans by US president Donald Trump to impose tariffs and the threats to economic growth from the conflict in the Middle East mean geopolitical events are taking centre stage for householders.

Bank of Ireland’s Savings and Investment Index for the second quarter of this year shows concern about a global recession was the number-one worry for 21pc of those surveyed.

This is up 8pc on the last survey in the first three months of the year.

The concern is highest among those aged 30 to 59, and among professional/managerial groups.

Housing and rental costs continue to dominate concerns faced by younger age groups. Some 28pc of 16 to 29-year-olds cited the cost of housing/rent as their biggest worry.

Another 24pc of this age group view inflation and the cost of living as their biggest concern.

There was a fall in the proportion of people who say they are saving and in those who believe they are saving enough.

The Savings and Investment Index dropped to 87, down from 94 in the first three months of this year.

Investing habits remained largely unchanged, with an increase in the amount being invested compared with last quarter. Despite this, more than half of consumers believe stock markets will be lower in the next six months.

Chief investment strategist at Bank of Ireland Kevin Quinn said: “The increase in concerns about global recession comes at a time when geopolitics has taken centre stage, so it’s the first time we’ve seen this come to such prominence in our survey.”

Mr Quinn said global investment markets had experienced a steep downturn in April and headlines about an effective trade embargo had dominated those weeks.

“Markets have recovered significantly since then with a powerful rally from mid-April onwards, but that hasn’t moved the dial for Irish households yet,” he said.

“With tariffs dominating public discourse up until quite recently and the Israel-Iran conflict now to the fore, it’s little surprise that these concerns are prominent.

“It’s also no surprise to see housing concerns and the cost of living remaining uppermost amongst younger age groups.”

More

Fear of a global recession is now the main economic worry among Irish households

Middle East crisis clouds outlook for interest rates: Bailey sounds alarm amid stagflation fears

25 June 2025

The governor of the Bank of England has warned that unpredictable events in the Middle East are creating a further headache over interest rates.

Andrew Bailey made the comments to peers as oil prices retreated from a spike earlier in the week amid rapidly changing developments in the conflict between Israel and Iran.

‘It is so unpredictable at the moment that as we saw in the last 24 hours it can easily change overnight,’ he told the Lords’ economic affairs committee.

Oil price volatility is an issue for the Bank as higher prices can push up inflation – making it harder to cut interest rates.

It adds to the difficulty for the Bank as it is already facing the spectre of stagflation – a scenario when the economy flatlines while inflation spirals.

The prospect of such a scenario was raised yesterday by another Bank of England official, Megan Greene.

The oil price soared to more than $80 earlier in the week after the US bombed Iran’s nuclear sites. 

But it came down sharply to below $70 yesterday as Donald Trump declared there had been a ceasefire and fears eased that Iran would block global oil supplies in retaliation.

Bailey told peers: ‘We’ve seen so far rather a big turnaround overnight in terms of the situation with the oil price.’

Trump’s tariff wars are adding to the chaotic mix, as a 90-day pause in the worst of the levies comes to an end. Bailey said: ‘It is very unpredictable where this is all going to end up.’

And he pointed out that the impact of trade wars on UK inflation is hard to forecast.

It could mean cheap Chinese goods blocked from the US market flooding the UK and bringing down prices. Or it could mean supply chain disruption that pushes prices up.

Bailey said he was not ‘putting that high a weight’ on the latest global developments when deciding on interest rates given the volatility.

But he cautioned that it made it even harder to signal the future path of rates. He added: ‘I would never give a prediction about what the next meeting will do anyway, but in these circumstances we are particularly careful about what we say on that front because the world is just so uncertain.’

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Middle East crisis clouds outlook for interest rates: Bailey sounds alarm amid stagflation fears

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Anker Recalls 1.1 Million Power Banks for Fires and Explosions: How to Get a Free Replacement

June 25, 2025

Electronics company Anker has announced an official recall of Anker PowerCore 10000 power banks with the model number A1263, following 19 reports of the portable chargers catching fire and exploding.

The Consumer Products Safety Commission reports that more than 1.1 million of the products sold in the US are affected by the recall. The company plans to replace the charging devices, but customers must submit photo evidence of ownership and also prove that they've disposed of the PowerCore devices properly.

The PowerCore, made in China, is now one of four current power bank recalls that have been issued by Anker. The others include the 334 MagGo 10K battery, the 321 Power Bank (5K) and the 535 Power Bank (20K). Other Anker models, including two of CNET's top picks for portable chargers -- Anker 523 PowerCore Slim 10K PD and Anker PowerCore III 10K -- aren't impacted by the recall.

Airlines have taken note of portable battery hazards. Recently, Southwest Airlines changed its policy on charging devices inside of carry-on bags. Some international airlines have also begun limiting the types of lithium chargers fliers can bring on planes due to risks of overheating.

How to check if your Anker PowerCore has been recalled 

Anker says the products affected are the A1263 model of the PowerCore 10000 power bank that were purchased between June 1, 2016 and Dec. 31, 2022.

Customers can verify their serial number at a webpage provided by Anker. The serial number is on the bottom of the device. 

In entering the number, Anker advises, "Pay attention to the letters and numbers in the serial number: '1', 'L', 'I', '2' and 'Z'. Please note that characters such as '0 (zero)' and 'O' (o) may be entered incorrectly. Regarding the serial number of the target product, 'O' and 'I' are not used.

---- Why portable chargers can be a travel hazard

The same reasons that portable charging banks are so easy to carry around are also part of why they can pose a problem. Most use lithium ion technology, which can be used to make battery-based products lighter and efficient, but is also susceptible to overheating or even fires if the batteries are damaged or have degraded. 

It's not unlike reports a decade ago of cheap batteries on hoverboards spontaneously combusting. Eventually, the products were banned on planes and in some cases, from being shipped.

"These products are typically unassuming, and are not something that the average consumer thinks can be potentially dangerous," said Don Fountain, a civil trial attorney and the author of Defect Safety, a book about consumer safety and defective products. Fountain is currently representing a case involving portable batteries that does not involve Anker. 

"My firm has handled fires and explosions caused by lithium batteries in a variety of products, including power tools, e-bikes, phones, scooters, children's toys, battery packs and others," Fountain said. "I would caution consumers to not store or use these products in a confined or unventilated area that could cause overheating and to not leave these products plugged into home electrical systems for extended periods of periods of time, such as overnight or when on vacation."

More

Anker Recalls 1.1 Million Power Banks for Fires and Explosions: How to Get a Free Replacement

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Another weekend and what new mischief will Tariff Team Trump spring on an increasingly nervous global economy? I don’t know either, but with the USA Independence Day holiday coming up fast on July 4th, expect some fireworks from President Trump. Have a great weekend everyone.

“I've heard that hard work never killed anyone, but I say why take the chance?”

Ronald Reagan

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