Tuesday, 17 June 2025

Trump Leaves G-7 Early. Tehran To Be Nuked? Fed Day One.

Baltic Dry Index. 1975 +07             Brent Crude 73.77

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US Federal Debt. 36.988 trillion  

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The nine most terrifying words in the English language are "I'm from the government, and I'm here to help."

Ronald Reagan

In the stock casinos, complacency and callousness. Business as usual, even as President Trump has ordered the 12 million occupants of Tehran to leave.

Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”

A very dangerous day ahead. Yesterday there were rumours that Pakistan has threatened to nuke Israel if Israel uses nukes in Iran. Hopefully just wild rumours.

Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed as investors assess Israel-Iran conflict; BOJ stands pat on rates

Updated Tue, Jun 17 2025 12:32 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Tuesday, as investors assessed the Israel-Iran conflict after U.S. President Donald Trump urged “everyone” to immediately evacuate Tehran. The president subsequently left the Group of Seven summit a day earlier due to the Middle East crisis.

Fitch Ratings said that a spillover from the conflict “appears to be within the range that can be absorbed at Israel’s ‘A’/Negative rating level.”

“The fighting will remain contained between Israel and Iran, and will not persist for more than a few weeks,” the ratings agency’s analysts wrote in a Monday note.

Similarly, Samy Chaar, chief economist and CIO Switzerland at Lombard Odier said the confrontation between the two countries look very much controlled so far, despite “market jitters” in commodity prices.

For now, he sees “no sign of an irreversible escalation.”

“That said, even without an escalation in the conflict, lingering uncertainty and structurally higher energy costs retain the potential to slow economic growth and push inflation higher,” Chaar wrote in a Tuesday note.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 added 0.58% while the broader Topix index advanced 0.29%, after the Bank of Japan expectedly stood pat on interest rates at 0.5%, as growth risks loom. The central bank also said it would slow the pace of government bond purchases from next April.

In South Korea, the Kospi index increased by 0.24% while the small-cap Kosdaq was flat.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 index dipped 0.15%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index inched down 0.12%.

Over in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 benchmark fell 0.13% in choppy trade.

Meanwhile, India’s Nifty 50 started the day 0.29% lower, while the BSE Sensex index was down 0.15%.

U.S. stock futures fell in Asian hours as investors continued to assess the developments around the Israel-Iran conflict.

Overnight stateside, all three key benchmarks rose on hopes for a positive resolution to the Middle East conflict.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 317.30 points, or 0.75%, closing at 42,515.09. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 advanced 0.94% to end at 6,033.11, while the Nasdaq Composite surged 1.52% and settled at 19,701.21.

Asia stock markets today: live updates for June 17 2025

European markets set to open sharply lower as Middle East conflict weighs on sentiment

Updated Tue, Jun 17 2025 12:37 AM EDT

Good morning and welcome to CNBC’s live blog covering European financial market action and the latest regional and global business news, data and earnings.

Futures data from IG suggests sharp falls across European markets at the open, with London’s FTSE looking set to open 52 points lower at 8,827, Germany’s DAX down 245 points at 23,447, France’s CAC 40 down 75 points at 7,665 and Italy’s FTSE MIB 329 points lower at 39,568.

Global investors continue to assess ongoing fighting between Israel and Iran tensions after continued missile attacks and airstrikes on Monday.

Oil prices have risen on supply worries, and the price of gold has also increased amid a flight to safe haven assets after the conflict erupted last week.

Those prices rose further overnight, and U.S. stock futures turned lower, after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled a further escalation in attacks could be coming as he urged Iranians to evacuate Tehran.

European markets on Tues June 17: Stoxx 600, FTSE, DAX, CAC 40

In Israel v Iran war news, President Trump called for the immediate evacuation of Tehran. Is Israel ready to nuke Tehran?

Trump is departing the G7 early as conflict between Israel and Iran shows signs of intensifying

Updated 4:32 AM GMT+1, June 17, 2025

KANANASKIS, Alberta (AP) — President Donald Trump abruptly left the Group of Seven summit Monday, departing a day early as the conflict between Israel and Iran intensified and the U.S. leader declared that Tehran should be evacuated “immediately.”

World leaders had gathered in Canada with the specific goal of helping to defuse a series of global pressure points, only to be disrupted by a showdown over Iran’s nuclear program that could escalate in dangerous and uncontrollable ways. Israel launched an aerial bombardment campaign against Iran four days ago.

At the summit, Trump warned that Tehran needs to curb its nuclear program before it’s “too late.” He said Iranian leaders would “like to talk” but they had already had 60 days to reach an agreement on their nuclear ambitions and failed to do so before the Israeli aerial assault began. “They have to make a deal,” he said.

Asked what it would take for the U.S. to get involved in the conflict militarily, Trump said Monday morning, “I don’t want to talk about that.“

So far, Israel has targeted multiple Iranian nuclear program sites but has not been able to destroy Iran’s Fordo uranium enrichment facility.

----By Monday afternoon, Trump warned ominously on social media, “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!” Shortly after that, Trump decided to leave the summit and skip a series of Tuesday meetings that would address the ongoing war in Ukraine and global trade issues.

As Trump posed for a picture Monday evening with the other G7 leaders, he said simply, “I have to be back, very important.”

More

Trump to depart G7 early as Israel-Iran conflict shows signs of intensifying | AP News

Israel-Iran Conflict Begins to Disrupt Global Supply Chains

June 16, 2025 at 5:00 PM GMT+1

In their fourth day of fighting, with no end in sight, ripples from the Israeli-Iranian conflict are beginning to rock global supply chains. Some oil tanker owners and managers have paused offering their vessels for Middle Eastern routes as they assess the risks, fueling concerns over export flows from the region. The stability of shipping in and around the Middle East will be closely watched by markets in coming weeks.

The region is home to about a third of the world’s oil production, and major exporters such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have little room to divert exports should shipping be affected. Navigation signals from more than 900 vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf went awry over the weekend, creating confusion in the shipping chokepoint as the fighting intensified

Meanwhile, the United Nations nuclear watchdog convened an emergency meeting to assess Israel’s attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, along with their disruption on oversight of the Islamic Republic’s stockpile of near-bomb grade uranium. Experts assess that Tehran’s vast nuclear infrastructure has been hobbled but isn’t destroyed. 

The conflict between Israel and Iran has shaped the Middle East for decades. It was largely on a low boil as the two sides attacked each other — mostly quietly and in Iran’s case often by proxy — while avoiding a full-blown war. Now that it’s entered into a hot phase, world markets are faced with charting new territory. --Jonathan Tirone

Israel-Iran Conflict Begins to Disrupt Global Supply Chains - Bloomberg

Haifa oil refinery shut down after sustaining heavy damage in Iran missile strike

Bazan Group says power plant supplying steam and electricity to refinery heavily damaged; 3 killed in missile strike

June 15, 2025

Israel’s Bazan Group announced Monday evening that all operations at its Haifa Bay refinery and subsidiaries have been shut down following a direct Iranian missile strike very early in the morning. The company confirmed in a statement to the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange that the attack caused significant damage, including to its on-site power station. Three people were killed in the incident.

According to the Energy Ministry, the attack struck a strategic facility and left the power generation unit—critical to steam and electricity production—heavily damaged. The ministry assured the public it is prepared to maintain national fuel supply and estimated that repair work will take about 10 days.

----The attack, which had not been publicly disclosed until Energy Minister Eli Cohen’s announcement in the evening, came as a surprise to some in Israel’s defense establishment. It is unclear whether the incident would have become public knowledge had Bazan not been a publicly traded company legally obligated to report material events.

Haifa oil refinery shut down after sustaining heavy damage in Iran missile strike

In other news, is China’s economy starting to recover?

China’s May retail sales grow at fastest pace since December 2023 as subsidies help boost consumption

Published Sun, Jun 15 2025 10:11 PM EDT

China’s retail sales in May grew at their fastest rate since late 2023, as government subsidies helped boost consumption, with analysts calling for stronger policy support to sustain the recovery.

Retail sales last month jumped 6.4% from a year earlier, data from National Bureau of Statistics showed Monday, sharply beating analysts’ estimates for a 5% growth in a Reuters poll and accelerating from the 5.1% growth in the previous month.

The spike in sales growth comes as a welcome respite for the world’s second-largest economy that has been struggling with persistent deflation.

Linghui Fu, NBS spokesperson, attributed the improving consumption in May to the ongoing consumer goods trade-in program, a surge in online shopping ahead of the “618” e-commerce event and a rise in foreign tourists as the country expanded its visa-free entry list to include more countries.

However, he added that it has been “particularly challenging” for China’s economy to maintain stable growth since the second quarter, naming heightened uncertainty in trade policies among factors dragging growth. Fu made the comments at a press conference following the data release.

The country’s industrial output slowed to 5.8% year on year in May from 6.1% in the prior month. The latest reading came in slightly weaker than analysts’ expectations for a 5.9% rise.

Fixed-asset investment, reported on a year-to-date basis, expanded 3.7% this year as of May from a year earlier, undershooting Reuters’ forecast for a 3.9% growth and slowing from a 4% growth in the first four months. Within the fixed-asset investment, the contraction in property investment deepened, falling 10.7% in the first five months, government data showed.

“The rise of retail sales came as a surprise,” said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint asset management, while cautioning that the falling property prices could dampen consumer sentiment.

separate release Monday by the NBS showed prices of new homes in the more affluent tier 1 cities continued to decline, falling 1.7% in May from a year ago, while those in tier 2 and tier 3 cities dropped 3.5% and 4.9%, respectively.

The NBS official noted that more work was needed to stop the slump in real estate market.

tariff deal reached by Beijing and Washington in mid-May gave temporary relief to the country’s exports, prompting some businesses to frontload shipment while doubling down on alternative markets. Both sides struck a 90-day truce to roll back most of the triple-digit levies added on each other’s goods in early April.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC last week that U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports will stay at their current level of 55%.

more

China retail sales, industrial output, fixed asset investment in May

Another tower block fire. Eight years after the Grenfell Tower fire in London, developers are still putting flammable cladding on tower blocs. While the world’s attention was focused on the Air India plane crash an even bigger disaster was avoided in Dubai. Approx. 10 minutes.

Mass Evacuation in Dubai! Marina Skyscraper Fire Shocks the World, Panic in the Streets

Mass Evacuation in Dubai! Marina Skyscraper Fire Shocks the World, Panic in the Streets - YouTube

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Hair Stylists Are Bracing For A Recession — And Noticing A Hot New Trend With Clients

June 15, 2025

The latest recession indicator? The number of “recession blondes” walking around with their natural roots showing. 

President Donald Trump has played coy about the possibility of his tariffs causing a recession, telling NBC News earlier this month that any economic pain would just be part of a “transition period.” But hairdressers and others in the beauty industry are already seeing hints of a recession, as business tapers off, and clients let their hair grow long and uncolored.

Kayla Lofaro, a hair stylist and owner of Discotheque Salon in the Silver Lake neighborhood of Los Angeles, says she’s definitely feeling some bumpiness because of Trump’s economic “transition.” 

The dip in clients mirrors the drop-off her salon experienced during the writers’ strike in 2023, when many of her clients in the entertainment industry were temporarily laid off and stopped coming in. 

“Los Angeles is still reeling from the effects of the strike, and we’re definitely feeling the economic downturn now,” Lofaro told HuffPost. “Usually, I have clients that maintain their color every six to eight weeks but now that is stretching to about three to four months. A lot of clients are also skipping haircuts and just getting color.” 

Lofaro opened her salon at the height of the COVID pandemic, so she knows how to weather hard times like these. 

“Something that we did during COVID, that we will most likely do during these current unprecedented times, is to hold ‘specials’ for the month, like free haircuts with any color service,’” she said. 

When times are tough financially, Lofaro knows that beauty is bound to take a backseat.

During the Great Depression, women staved off buying new clothes or going in for costly hair treatments but still bought lipstick when they could swing it. 

That phenomenon ― where sales of relatively affordable luxury goods like lipstick increase during economic downturns ― became known by economists as the “lipstick effect,” or the “lipstick index.”

Beauty routines are becoming more low maintenance now, too. Like before, instead of cutting back on discretionary spending entirely, women on TikTok are sharing ways they’re keeping up appearances while avoiding paying a small fortune at salons: There’s tons of videos on how to apply lash extensions or press‑on nails yourself, and guidance on how to get an (almost perfect) DIY spray tan.

And then there’s the aforementioned “recession blonde” and “recession brunette” trend: To save money, women are letting their hair grow out darker at the root and blending it out with lighter, more golden shade toward the bottom. Maybe they’ll go in for a balayage or highlight treatment once or twice a year, which gives them a more lived in look that doesn’t need to be touched up so regularly. 

More

Hair Stylists Are Bracing For A Recession — And Noticing A Hot New Trend With Clients

The old believe everything, the middle-aged suspect everything, the young know everything.

Oscar Wilde

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Government officially announces what will be included in the Future Homes Standard this year — and it’s good news for solar power

16 June 2025

Solar panel plans for all new homes confirmed as government begins finalising Future Homes Standard, sparking mixed reactions

The UK government has confirmed that the Future Homes Standard will be published this autumn, making it clear that new homes will require solar panels as standard.

The announcement forms part of the government’s wider Plan for Change, aimed at improving energy efficiency, reducing carbon emissions, and lowering energy bills for future homeowners.

While many industry experts and consumers have welcomed the move as a step toward cleaner energy and cost savings, some have raised concerns about potential challenges for builders and buyers as these new regulations take effect.

Solar panels to be standard on new homes

The upcoming standard will amend building regulations to explicitly promote rooftop solar, making it a mandatory for all new homes across the UK.

The government says this will spark a "rooftop revolution", helping families save hundreds of pounds on energy bills annually.

A typical existing home with solar panels could already save about £530 per year based on current energy prices - these savings will now be unlocked from day one for new homeowners.

Energy Secretary Ed Miliband called the measure “common sense,” stating: “So many people just don’t understand why this doesn’t already happen. With our plans, it will.”

Low-carbon heating also part of the plan

Beyond solar, the Future Homes Standard includes mandatory low-carbon heating solutions like heat pumps, alongside high energy efficiency standards.

These upgrades will not only lower bills but also reduce reliance on fossil fuels, aligning with broader net-zero targets.

Planning rules have already been relaxed to support this transition: homeowners can now install a heat pump within one metre of their property boundary without needing planning permission - a move expected to remove a key barrier cited by nearly a third of potential heat pump customers, according to Octopus Energy.

More

Solar panels will be part of Future Homes Standard, government confirms | Homebuilding

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Government is not a solution to our problem, government is the problem. ... Government does not solve problems; it subsidizes them. Government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. If it stops moving, subsidize it. ... The problem is not that people are taxed too little, the problem is that government spends too much. 

Ronald Reagan


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