Baltic
Dry Index. 1968 +64 Brent Crude 74.23
Spot
Gold 3432 U S 2
Year Yield 3.96 +0.06
US
Federal Debt. 36.975 trillion US GDP 30.070 trillion
The end
of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more
days at most.
Irving Fisher, October 1929.
Update 8:15 am BST. Middle
East War Shipping. Approx. 20 minutes.
How is Shipping Impacted by an Israel-Iran
War? | Trade Through The Strait of Hormuz
With Israel almost starting
World War Three, Nuclear War Two, the stock casinos were greatly nervous on
Friday.
Next week likely more
of the same, as President Trump seems a mere spectator in events in the latest
Middle East attempt at plunging planet Earth into World War Three.
Assuming no WW3, the
markets will be focused on the meetings of the Fed and BOE, the outcome of this
weekend’s ”Great Leaders” G-7 meeting in
Canada.
A frosty reception
for “King” Donald seems likely, given his trade war on all others attending and
Israel and Iran pushing for Nuclear War Two.
Dow
falls more than 700 points on Friday as attacks between Israel and Iran
escalate: Live updates
Updated
Fri, Jun 13 2025
Stocks
tumbled Friday after Israel launched a wave of airstrikes on Iran, pushing
energy prices higher and adding another complication at a time of heightened
geopolitical tensions.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell
769.83 points, or 1.79%, ending at 42,197.79. The S&P 500 dropped 1.13% to close at
5,976.97, while the Nasdaq
Composite lost 1.30% and settled at 19,406.83.
Nvidia and other stocks that
have led the market’s comeback from the April lows dropped as investors shed
risk. Oil and defense stocks were higher. Exxon added 2%, while Lockheed Martin and RTX each jumped more than 3%.
The
market drop began Thursday evening as Israel’s defense minister Israel Katz
declared a special state of emergency following an
Israeli attack on Iran. Two U.S. officials said that there is no U.S.
involvement or assistance, according to NBC News.
On
Friday, stocks’ decline worsened after Israel Defense Forces said
that Iran launched missiles toward Israel, in retaliation for Israel’s
series of airstrikes. Iranian state television said Friday afternoon
that Iran
will not participate in the sixth round of nuclear negotiations with
the U.S. planned for this weekend.
Brent crude futures and West Texas Intermediate crude futures
both surged more than 7%. At one point, WTI crude oil neared $74 a barrel. Gold
prices rose
to a near two-month high, driven by demand for safe assets.
“This
conflict adds challenges to the already sizable collection of worries being
maintained by the markets–those aren’t going away. At the bare minimum the
spike in crude, if it persists, will have an almost immediate impact on
inflation numbers,” said Mark Malek, chief investment officer of Siebert
Financial.
President
Donald Trump, in a Friday morning post on his social media site Truth Social,
warned Iran to come to the negotiating table.
“There
has already been great death and destruction, but there is still time to make
this slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal,
come to an end. Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left, and save
what was once known as the Iranian Empire,” Trump wrote. “No more death, no
more destruction, JUST DO IT, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE.”
Trump
said in a separate early morning post that he is giving Iran “perhaps, a second
chance” to strike a nuclear deal. “Two months ago I gave Iran a 60 day
ultimatum to ‘make a deal.’ They should have done it! Today is day 61,” he
wrote.
Separately,
a closely watched University of Michigan survey released Friday indicated
an uptick in consumer sentiment last month. The university’s Survey of
Consumers rose to 60.5 in June, well ahead of the Dow Jones estimate for 54 and
a 15.9% increase from a month ago.
Friday’s
sell-off dragged the major averages into negative territory on the week. The
S&P 500 lost 0.4%, while the Nasdaq slid 0.6%. The Dow fell 1.3% over the
week.
Stock
market falls after Israel attacks Iran: Live updates
European
stocks fell after Israel launches air strikes on Iran
Updated
Fri, Jun 13 2025 12:06 PM EDT
European
stock markets closed in the red after Israel launched air strikes on Iran.
The Stoxx Europe 600 index
provisionally closed 1% lower. Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 also fell a little
more than 1.1%. The U.K.’s FTSE
100, which had initially rallied, also ended the day lower by 0.5%.
Brent crude was trading up
6% by the end of the equity market trading day.
Europe
markets live: Stock moves amid Middle East escalation
China’s
tight grip on rare earths shows little sign of weakening
Published
Fri, Jun 13 2025 6:01 AM EDT
China’s
dominance of the global rare earths supply chain won’t dwindle easily, even if
Beijing decides to approve more export licenses through deals with Europe and
the U.S.
Three Shenzhen-listed Chinese companies this month said
that Beijing approved their exports of magnets with rare
earths — metals critical for cars, defense, semiconductors and other industrial
products. But another firm, Baotou INST Magnetic New Materials, said last month
the export licenses can only be used for one shipment.
In
Europe, automotive industry groups have said that, in the case of magnets and
heavy rare earths, long-term export licenses from China were only valid for a
maximum of six months.
Diversifying
away from Chinese sourcing of rare earths is likely to be “extremely difficult”
and, at best, a limited long-term solution, according to a Tuesday note from
Rico Luman, senior sector economist for transport and logistics at Dutch bank
ING.
China
is the undisputed leader of the critical minerals supply chain, producing roughly 60% of the world’s supply of rare
earths and processing almost 90%, which means it is importing
these materials from other countries and refining them.
“Europe
currently produces no rare earths, and the U.S. has only recently begun
small-scale production of neodymium and praseodymium. However, both regions
hold only a fraction of global reserves, limiting their ability to scale up,”
Luman said.
Already,
European automakers and U.S. high-tech businesses in China have halted
production or warned of a shortage this summer.
China
announced export controls on seven
rare earths in early April, following a series of tighter restrictions in
the last two years on a broad range of critical minerals. Washington had expected
a rollback of the April controls once the U.S. and China agreed to a
90-day tariff reprieve in mid-May. After trade talks in London this week, U.S.
officials indicated Beijing will soon allow more rare earths exports.
China
has approved “a certain number” of export permits for rare earth elements and
related items, a spokesperson for the commerce ministry said Thursday,
adding that China will continue to step up examination and approval for such
license applications.
This
has yet to significantly improve business conditions.
The
market remains “volatile” even after the U.S.-China trade negotiations in
London, said Philippe Kehren, CEO of Belgian chemicals group Solvay, which
operates the largest rare earths processing plant outside of China in La
Rochelle, France.
In
response to that unpredictability, he said the company is using recycled
material and studying sourcing alternatives to China.
“This
is how we adjust to the current, unpredictable situation and I think the best
mitigation in this type of circumstance is indeed to master the technology,”
Kehren said. Solvay aims to supply 30% of Europe’s processed rare earth demand
for permanent magnets by 2030.
Half-hearted
rollback
Beijing
will likely keep up its restrictions on rare earths to deter Washington from
ratcheting up restrictions on high tech exports to China, said Dennis Wilder, a
former senior White House intelligence official.
“If
new export controls [against China] are implemented, China may pull back again
from the rare earth understanding,” said Wilder.
Gabriel
Wildau, managing director at risk consultancy Teneo, echoed the view and warned
that even as Beijing signaled a willingness to ease rare earth exports, “supply
cutoffs will remain an ever-present threat.”
Beijing
has made the licensing regime “permanent,” despite perceptions that it was an
“act of retaliation” amid tit-for-tat escalation with the U.S., Wildau noted.
That would allow China to deter stockpiling of the critical mineral by U.S.
firms and ensure its negotiating leverage remains undiminished, he added.
More
China's
tight grip on rare earths shows little sign of weakening
In other news, as one
door to hell is closing, is another about to open? See the final YouTube presentation
below.
"Door to Hell" starting to close after 54 years
June 08, 2025
There are no written Soviet records, no logs, no official drilling
reports, and no confirmation that they'd lit it intentionally – but there's no
disputing a ~100-foot (~30-m) deep, 226-foot (69-m) wide pit of relentless
fiery fury that's been burning for around 50 years in the Karakum Desert of
Turkmenistan.
The Darvaza gas
crater was believed to have been started in 1971 when a Soviet drilling rig
punched through a natural gas pocket while drilling an exploratory well. To
prevent the release of poisonous methane gas, they supposedly lit it on fire
with the expectation that it would burn off in a few days.
- Fun fact:
Turkmenistan has the fourth largest natural gas reserve in the world,
containing about 9% of the planet's known natural gas.
What they got instead was the apocalyptic birth of Turkmenistan's
most infamous tourist destination – officially named the Shining of Karakum –
and the country's top source of methane pollution from the 1,832°F (1,000°C),
half-a-century-long, hellish gateway fire
– that just might snuff out soon.
At its peak, the crater's inferno lit up the night sky like a
flaming beacon from miles away. Today, the flames are only faintly visible near
the crater as the fires have been reduced threefold.
On June 5, at the International Scientific and Practical
Conference "Environmental Aspects of the Implementation of Innovative
Technologies in the Development of Hydrocarbon Deposits" (TESC 2025) conference in
Ashgabat, scientists from Turkmengaz announced that the previously unstoppable
fire pit is finally starting to die off.
Turkmengaz, the national gas company, has reopened previously
mothballed wells near the crater and drilled several new wells to pump out
methane feedstock before it can reach the crater.
Turkmenistan's joint project with the United Nations Environment
Program (UNEP) called Methane Alert and Response System (MARS) monitors methane
emissions in real-time via satellite and has confirmed the results: the
"Door" is closing.
---- Though it's been burning for
over 50 years, the Darvaza gas crater is far from the longest burning "human error"
fire to exist. In Centralia,
Pennsylvania, an accidental trash fire ignited a coal seam in 1962 and experts
expect it to burn for another 250-plus years. In Jharia,
India, a 1916 or so underground coal seam fire prompted the evacuation of over
100 thousand people. It too is expected to burn for at least another 100 to 200
years.
What really takes the cake, however, is Burning
Mountain (Mount Wingen), Australia. Though not human-made, it is the
longest known continuously burning fire on Earth at 6,000-plus years long. You
guessed it, another coal seam fire, moving underground about 3.2 feet (1 meter)
per year like never ending BBQ coals. The local Wanaruah people have spoken
about the mountain smoking as far back as ancient times. And by studying the
ash layers, rock discoloration, and heat-altered strata along the fire’s path,
scientists say at least 6,000 years sounds about right.
Back in Turkmenistan, the work continues to drill more wells in an
effort to capture natural gas, cut methane emissions, and finally close
this Door
to Hell once and for all.
Source: Turkmengaz
Door to Hell:
Turkmenistan's infamous gas crater is closing
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given our Magic Money
Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
Frozen pizza sales could be a key indicator of a
recession
June 11, 2025
Want to know if the
economy is faltering? Inspect your local frozen food aisle. With a slew of
economists — and businesspeople like Elon Musk — predicting that there will be
a recession before the end of the year, many have looked to frozen pizza sales
as a way to try to predict when the economic malaise might arrive.
Sales of frozen pizza, and frozen food in general, have
historically spiked just prior to times of economic downturn. Now, with frozen
pizza sales on the rise since the pandemic, there are questions once again
about what it means for the economy.
How many frozen pizzas are being sold?
Over the last few years,
frozen pizzas have been flying off the shelves at a rapid pace. Sales of frozen
pizzas "jumped by $1 billion in 2020, climbing from $5.6 billion in 2019
to nearly $6.6 billion," said Food & Wine. This continued even after the pandemic
lockdowns ended, and by 2024, frozen pizza sales in the U.S. "reached
nearly $7 billion, contributing to a global market worth $18.5 billion."
This has led to frozen
pizza becoming a large part of Americans' diets, analysts say. There are
"over 20% of Americans purchasing frozen pizza monthly," according to
the investment bank Greenwich Capital Group. And this spike won't disappear anytime soon:
Greenwich estimates that frozen pizza sales in the States will crest $7.4
billion in 2025 and could hit nearly $10 billion by 2030.
Is this an indicator of a recession?
These sales are often
seen as an indicator that the economy isn't doing well because, "in addition to being
convenient," frozen pizza is "also a more cost-effective option for a
family meal," said Greenwich. This makes it an appealing option for people
who are trying to eat on a budget.
When people are
"feeling pinched — economically, existentially — they turn to the grocery
store frozen section," said Business Insider, and this phenomenon has been seen before. In
2009, during the "midst of the Great Recession, frozen food sales grew by
3.1%." As "economic anxiety is stirring up once again, people are
leaning toward eating at home and stocking up from the grocery store frozen
aisle."
Over the last few years, people have been "opting to buy a
greater share of their meals at retail establishments — meaning grocery stores,
clubs, online — than from food-service operations, such as restaurants,"
said Business Insider, and frozen pizza is no exception. This is a
"reflection of several things," David Portalatin, a food industry
advisor at market research firm Circana, told the outlet. This includes a
"response to inflation and the fact that food inflation away from home is
still accelerating faster than at home." But it is also a
"longer-term trend of a more home-centric consumer."
There are signs that
frozen pizza companies are recognizing this trend. Nestlé SA, a conglomerate
that owns numerous frozen food brands, has "brought 95% of its frozen
pizza portfolio — which includes brands like Tombstone, Jack's and DiGiorno —
back down into the $4 to $6 range," said Bloomberg. This price decrease isn't too unusual, as
during "periods of economic uncertainty, it's common for consumers to
shift from takeout to frozen pizza as a cost-saving measure," R.J.
Hottovy, the head of research at retail analytics company Placer.ai, told Food
& Wine, and this "suggests budget-conscious consumers may be adjusting
their dining habits."
Frozen pizza sales could be a key indicator of
a recession
Technology
Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Saab and Helsing pit AI-piloted warplane against real fighter
pilot
June 11, 20257:19 AM GMT+1
PARIS, June 11 (Reuters) - Sweden's
Saab (SAABb.ST), opens new tab and German defence startup Helsing have
conducted combat testing of a Gripen E warplane flown by AI against a real
fighter pilot, they said on Wednesday, in a step forward in European efforts to
compete on autonomy in defence.
Last week's trial is the first publicly
known instance of artificial intelligence being tested in a warplane beyond
visual range (BVR) rather than in a close-range dogfight, or that AI has
controlled a fully fledged jet rather than a test plane.
In May last year, then-U.S. Air Force
secretary Frank Kendall flew in a modified F-16 called X-62A VISTA fitted with
machine learning supplied by Shield AI to demonstrate the ability of AI to
enter aerial battle with a crewed F-16.
The European trials, known as
"Project Beyond", included three flights carried out between May 28
and June 3, the last of which pitted Helsing's "Centaur" AI agent
piloting a Gripen E against a human-operated Gripen D fighter jet, the
companies said.
Funded by the Swedish government, the
trial was inconclusive on whether the human Top Gun or the AI-powered foe
performed better, but the trial highlights an increasing focus on integrating
AI and autonomy into combat systems.
"I would say it is not a given who
will win... you have to be on your game as a pilot," Saab's Chief
Innovation Officer Marcus Wandt, who is also a Swedish astronaut and ex-fighter
pilot, told reporters.
"If you need to retrain for a new
weapon system or new tactics, it will be difficult to stay on par. Right now
there are still pilots out there that will have a chance, but that will change
fast."
More
Saab and Helsing pit AI-piloted warplane against real fighter pilot |
Reuters
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
This
weekend’s music diversion. Anonymous but interesting. Approx.13 minutes.
Anonymus
(18th Century) - Trumpet Concerto Es-Dur
Anonymus (18th
Century) - Trumpet Concerto Es-Dur
This
weekend’s tariff and shipping diversion. Approx. 9 minutes.
BREAKING
NEWS: The US Retail Sector is About to Collapse Because of Apple, Walmart and
Costco!
BREAKING NEWS: The
US Retail Sector is About to Collapse Because of Apple, Walmart and Costco!
Finally,
section 899, another door to hell? The
USA puts a gun to its head and gets ready to pull the trigger!!! Approx. 30 minutes.
America’s
Tax on Foreign Investors - Section 899
America’s Tax on
Foreign Investors - Section 899
The Great Depression, like most other periods of severe
unemployment, was produced by government mismanagement rather than by any
inherent instability of the private economy.
Milton Friedman
No comments:
Post a Comment