Monday, 9 June 2025

US v China Trade Talks. US CPI And PPI Week. Canada In The EU?

 Baltic Dry Index. 1633 +07            Brent Crude 66.43

Spot Gold 3311                  US 2 Year Yield 4.04 +0.12  

US Federal Debt. 36.954 trillion  

US GDP 30.059 trillion.

With all this consumer debt, business debt, government debt, smaller movements in interest rates have a magnified effect. a small movement can tip the boat.

Bill Gross

In the Asian stock casinos, optimism that today’s trade talks in London between China and the USA will be constructive.

To avert a 1930s type of outcome for the global economy, they need to be and soon, as in this week, if not today.

Look away from China’s economy and events in LA California now.

Asia stocks rise as investors digest China data, await Beijing-Washington trade talks

Updated Mon, Jun 9 2025 12:27 AM EDT

Asian markets climbed Monday as investors awaited trade talks between Washington and Beijing later in the day, and digested China inflation and trade data.

Trade tensions are seemingly easing between the world’s top two economies as China has reportedly granted temporary approvals for the export of rare earths, while jetliner Boeing Co has begun commercial jet deliveries to the Asian superpower.

China’s consumer price inflation fell by 0.1% year on year in May, smaller than the 0.2% decline forecast by economists polled by Reuters, while producer price index declined 3.3%, compared to a 3.2% drop expected by analysts.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 index rose 0.18% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 1.01%.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 advanced 1.05%, while the broader Topix index rose 0.66%.

The country’s GDP contraction for the January to March quarter narrowed to an annualized 0.2%, from the 0.7% print released previously, revised estimates showed.

In South Korea, the Kospi index climbed 1.62% while the small-cap Kosdaq increased by 0.97%.

India’s benchmark Nifty 50 was up 0.36% in early trade while the BSE Sensex added 0.4%.

Australian markets are closed for a public holiday.

U.S. equity futures were mostly flat in early Asian trade.

All three key benchmarks on Wall Street jumped last Friday, after the non-farm payrolls data came in better-than-expected.

U.S. payrolls climbed 139,000 in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, above the Dow Jones forecast of 125,000 for the month but less than the downwardly revised 147,000 in April.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average popped 443.13 points, or 1.05%, to close at 42,762.87. The blue-chip index was up more than 600 points at its highs of the session.

Meanwhile, the the broad-based S&P 500 also gained 1.03% — surpassing the 6,000 level for the first time since late February — and settling at 6,000.36, while the Nasdaq Composite rallied 1.20%, to end at 19,529.95.

Asia stock markets today: live updates for June 9 2025

China’s exports to the U.S. clock their sharpest drop in more than 5 years — down over 34% in May

Published Sun, Jun 8 2025 11:12 PM EDT

China’s exports growth missed expectations in May, dragged down by a sharp decline in shipments to the U.S., despite a temporary trade truce that paused most tariffs for 90 days.

Chinese exports to the U.S. plunged 34.5% from a year ago, marking the sharpest drop since February 2020, according to Wind Information. Imports from the U.S. dropped over 18%, as the country’s trade surplus with the U.S. shrank by 41.55% year-on-year to $18 billion.

Overall exports rose 4.8% last month in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, customs data showed Monday, shy of Reuters’ poll estimates of a 5% jump.

Imports plunged 3.4% in May from a year earlier, a drastic drop compared to economists’ expectations of a 0.9% fall. Imports had been declining this year, largely owed to sluggish domestic demand.

That was largely offset by its shipment to the Southeast Asian bloc, which jumped nearly 15% from a year, and those to European Union countries and Africa, which rose 12% and over 33%, respectively.

Exports growth in May slowed significantly from a 8.1% surge in April as a jump in shipment to Southeast Asian countries offset a sharp drop in outbound goods to the U.S. Chinese shipment to the U.S. plunged over 21% in April, as prohibitive tariffs kicked in.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s prohibitive 145% tariffs on Chinese goods took effect in April, with Beijing retaliating with triple-digit duties and other restrictive measures, such as export controls on critical minerals.

U.S. and China struck a preliminary deal in Geneva, Switzerland, last month that led both sides to drop a majority of tariffs. Washington’s levies on Chinese goods now stand at 51.1% while Beijing’s duties on American imports are at 32.6%, according to think tank Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Chinese Vice Premier and lead trade representative He Lifeng is expected to meet with the U.S. trade negotiation team led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in London later in the day for renewed trade talks.

The second-round of meetings come after tensions flared up again between the two sides, as they accused each other of violating the Geneva trade agreement.

Washington had blamed Beijing for slow-walking its pledge to approve the export of additional critical minerals to the U.S., while China criticized the U.S. decision to impose new restrictions on Chinese student visas and additional export restrictions on chips.

China’s Ministry of Commerce said on Saturday that it would continue to review and approve applications for export of rare earths, citing growing demand for the minerals in robotics and new energy vehicle sectors.

China May trade data: exports rise after tariff ceasefire

China consumer prices slump again, deepening deflation worries as demand stays weak

Published Sun, Jun 8 2025 9:41 PM EDT

China’s consumer prices fell for a fourth consecutive month in May, as Beijing’s stimulus measures appear insufficient to boost domestic consumption, with price wars in the auto sector adding to downward pressure.

The consumer price index fell 0.1% from a year earlier, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released Monday, compared with Reuters’ median estimate of a 0.2% decline.

CPI slipped into negative territory in February, falling 0.7% from a year ago, and has continued to post year-on-year declines of 0.1% in March, April, and now May.

Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, however, rose 0.6% in May — highest since January this year, according to Wind Information.

Separately, deflation in the country’s factory-gate or producer prices deepened, falling 3.3% from a year earlier in May, marking the steepest decline since July 2023 and a sharper drop compared with analysts’ estimates of a 3.2% fall, according to LSEG data.

Wholesale prices have remained in deflationary territory since October 2022.

Aside from the persistently weak consumer demand, a bruising price war in the automotive industry has kept prices lower, said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint asset management.

Chinese policymakers have urged the automotive industry to halt the brutal price wars, which had hurt businesses’ profitability and efficiency, driving prices lower.

“The price war in the auto sector is another signal of fierce competition driving prices lower,” Zhang said, adding that falling property prices also contributed to the downward pressure in consumer prices.

More

China consumer deflation deepens as demand stays weak despite stimulus

In other news.

Canada won’t become the 51st US state – but could it join the EU?

Donald Trump’s extraordinary threats have angered Canadians and Europeans, and the idea of a new kind of transatlantic alliance is gaining traction

Sun 8 Jun 2025 05.00 BST

Joachim Streit has never stepped foot in Canada. But that hasn’t stopped the German politician from launching a tenacious, one-man campaign that he readily describes as “aspirational”: to have the North American country join the EU.

“We have to strengthen the European Union,” said Streit, who last year was elected as a member of the European parliament. “And I think Canada – as its prime minister says – is the most European country outside of Europe.”

Streit had long imagined Canada as a sort of paradise, home to dense forests that course with wide, rushing rivers. But after Donald Trump returned to power, launching much of the world into a trade war and turning his back on America’s traditional allies, Streit began to cast the northern country in a new light.

What he saw was a relatively unexplored relationship, one that could prove mutually beneficial as the world grapples with rapidly reshaping global dynamics. “Canadians have seen their trust in the US undermined, just as we have in Europe, following President Trump’s actions,” he said. “We need to strengthen the ties that bind us to our friends.”

While he admitted that the possibility of Canada as a full member of the EU “may be aspirational for now”, he wondered if it was an idea whose time had come

“Canada would be a strong member,” he said. “If Canada would be a member of the EU, it would rank 4th in terms of GDP. It’s part of Nato. And 58% of (working-age) Canadians have college degrees.”

Canada also has vast energy reserves – an asset that could prove useful to the bloc, which is still struggling to wean itself off Russian gas, he added.

Since launching his campaign last month, Streit has become the most visible proponent of an unlikely proposition that has been gaining traction since Trump began floating the idea of Canada as the 51st state.

In late January, a former foreign minister of Germany, Sigmar Gabriel, called for Canada to be invited into the EU. “They are more European than some European member states anyway,” he told Germany’s Pioneer Media.

Media outlets on both sides of the Atlantic have delved into the idea, while a February poll of 1,500 Canadians found 44% of them believed Canada should look into joining the EU.

In March, however, a European spokesperson appeared to pour cold water on the suggestion, citing an article in the EU treaty that specifies only European states can apply to join the EU.

Streit brushed off the technicality, pointing to France’s overseas territories. “Those are also not in Europe, but those islands belong to the European Union,” he said. Cyprus, considered EU territory but located geographically in west Asia, was another example.

And if one wanted to get technical, Canada was – albeit in a minuscule way – connected geographically to Europe, he said. “Greenland, which belongs to Denmark, shares a border with Canada,” he said, pointing to the divide that runs through the uninhabited half-mile square Hans Island.

More

Canada won’t become the 51st US state – but could it join the EU? | Canada | The Guardian

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Klarna boss: AI will lead to recession and mass job losses

7 June 2025

The introduction of AI at firms could lead to a recession due to mass job losses of professionals, Klarna’s chief executive has warned.

The use of AI to make work more efficient has been encouraged by leading figures, including the government itself which said it could save civil servants two weeks a year.

But fintech boss Sebastian Siemiatkowski, who runs the Stockholm-based ‘buy now, pay later’ business Klarna, has warned that its potential to replace work done by office staff could push economies into a recession in the coming years.

Siemiatkowski suggested that tech bosses had tended to dismiss the impacts AI could have on headcounts at firms, with Klarna cutting staff numbers from 5,500 to 3,000 in recent years.

“Many people in the tech industry, especially CEOs, tend to downplay the consequences of AI on jobs and white-collar jobs in particular. And I don’t want to be one of them,” Siemiatkowski told The Times Tech Podcast..

“There will be an implication for white-collar jobs and when that happens that usually leads to a recession at least in the short-term. Unfortunately, I don’t see how we could avoid that, with what’s happening from a technology perspective.”

He said he based his predictions on anecdotes seen through the number of firms pushing AI tools, with economic data not yet considering the impacts of AI.

“I feel like I have an email almost every day from some CEO of a tech or a large company that says we also see opportunities to become more efficient and we would like to compare notes. If I just take all of those emails and add up the amount of jobs in those emails, it’s considerable.”

He said humans could be protected for some jobs at Klarna, such as in customer service where people can work on fraud and other complex banking issues.

“The value of that human touch will increase,” he said, adding that AI meant people working in client-facing roles would have to be more skilled.

“They will provide a much higher quality type of service.”

Siemiatkowski’s comments echo those made by the chief executive of Anthropic, Dario Amodei, who said half of all entry level professional jobs could be eliminated in the next five years.

The head of another AI firm, Arthur Mesch, who runs French firm Mistral, has claimed that the excitement of fellow tech bosses for its ability to overpower humans was a “very religious” fascination while Demis Hassabis of Google DeepMind said it would take another five to ten years before AI would overtake human intelligence.

Klarna boss: AI will lead to recession and mass job losses

May jobs report crushes recession fears, market expert says

June 6, 2025

The May jobs report came in hotter than expected, showing surprising strength in the labor market. Eddie Ghabour, co-founder, Key Advisors Group, joined TheStreet to discuss what this report means for the U.S. economy.

EDDIE GHABOUR: So the job numbers. And what did we make of this report is that we are nowhere near a recession. We're getting a hearing a lot of recession calls. And when you look at this job data, it just which is why the market's reacting the way that it is. I think it just continues to support that. We are of a really resilient economy. And although the jobs number wasn't through the roof, it beat expectations. And just as importantly, it gives the Fed a little bit more ammunition to justify rate cuts, which would be bullish for markets as well too. But one of the biggest things that has stood out to us is when we're looking at wage increases. This is again very bullish from an economic perspective because we know Americans love to spend money in these wage increases at a time when the rate of change of inflation is actually slowing down, is a net positive money in folks pockets, and that money is going to filter into the economy. And I think we're going to see that over the coming quarter. We believe the economy is growing at a much faster pace than many people realize.

What this report tells us about the state of the economy is we're not close to a recession. And I know that's not a consensus call. And the reason why we say that it is really hard to have a recession when you have unemployment rate with a four handle, and we don't see unemployment breaking down to a level that would concern everyone and get that recession trade on. We think the next 12 months from both an economic and stock market perspective are going to be extremely prosperous. And the capital markets are really smart. We believe this market has had this nice recovery and resiliency because it is sniffing out the forward looking data that's going to come down the road. And so we think we're in a really good spot. I would really call this a Goldilocks market. 

Like anything it's not going to go straight up. We're going to have hiccups along the way. We'll have bumps. But those dips in our opinion should be bought until the data changes. And right now the data just continues to support that. It's prudent to stay bullish.

May jobs report crushes recession fears, market expert says

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Nuclear fusion record smashed as German scientists take 'a significant step forward' to near-limitless clean energy

5 June 2025

A recently concluded experimental campaign at the Wendelstein 7-X stellarator at the Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics (IPP) in Greifswald, Germany has smashed previous fusion records and set a new benchmark for reactor performances.

Nuclear fusion offers a tantalizing promise of unlimited clean energy. By smashing together isotopes (or different versions) of hydrogen at incredibly high temperatures, the resulting superheated plasma of electrons and ions fuses into heavier atoms, releasing a phenomenal amount of energy in the process.

However, while this fusion reaction is self-sustaining under the extraordinary temperatures and pressures within stars, recreating these conditions on Earth is a huge technical challenge — and current reactor concepts still consume more energy than they are able to produce.

Stellarators are one of the most promising reactor designs, so named for their mimicry of reactions in the sun. They use powerful external magnets to control the high-energy plasma within a ring-shaped vacuum chamber and maintain a stable, high pressure. Unlike simpler tokamak reactors — which pass a high current through the plasma to generate the required magnetic field — stellarators' external magnets are better at stabilizing the plasma through the fusion reactions, a feature that will ultimately be necessary when translating the technology to commercial power plants.

Most notably, the international team revealed that the reactor had reached a new record high triple product — a key metric for the success of fusion power generators. The triple product is a combination of the density of particles in the plasma, the temperature required for these particles to fuse, and the energy confinement time (a measure of how well the thermal energy is held by the system). A certain minimum value called the Lawson criterion marks the point at which the reaction produces more energy than it uses and becomes self-sustaining, so a higher triple product indicates a more efficient reaction.

More

Nuclear fusion record smashed as German scientists take 'a significant step forward' to near-limitless clean energy

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

When you own gold you're fighting every central bank in the world. That's because gold is a currency that competes with government currencies and has a powerful influence on interest rates and the price of government bonds. And that's why central banks long have tried to suppress the price of gold. Gold is the ticket out of the central banking system, the escape from coercive central bank and government power.

James Rickards

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