Baltic
Dry Index. 1681 +07
Brent Crude 67.93
Spot Gold 3328 US 2 Year Yield 3.75 -0.09
US Federal Debt. 37.021 trillion
US GDP 30.093 trillion.
Macroeconomics, even with all of our computers and with all of our information - is not an exact science and is incapable of being an exact science.
Paul Samuelson
On day one of the Trump Israel-Iran war “ceasefire”, President Trump accused both sides of breaking the “ceasefire”.
The stock casinos were indifferent at best.
Hopefully, by today both sides will have got Trump’s memo.
Later today, the US central bank will announce its key interest rate. Despite an order from President Trump to lower their rate, few expect the Fed to lower interest rates later today.
I look at the US and global economies and think President Trump is right in needing a lower interest rate. I think the UK economy desperately needs lower rates too, with the BOE’s policy lagging the UK economy still reeling from the Labour governments tax hits.
Assuming, the Trump ceasefire finally holds, after today’s Fed inaction, the sock casinos focus will turn to tomorrow’s 3rd estimate of US 1st quarter GDP and Friday’s PCE numbers.
Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed as investors
weigh Fed comments, Israel-Iran ceasefire
Updated Wed, Jun 25 2025 11:40 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed
Wednesday, as investors weighed a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, as well
as fresh
commentary from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
There is growing optimism that a ceasefire between Israel and Iran brokered
by U.S. President Donald
Trump will likely hold.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was flat.
South Korea’s Kospi climbed 0.31%, while
the small-cap Kosdaq fell 0.21%.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 rose 0.11%, while
the Topix slid 0.13%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed 0.66%
and mainland China’s CSI 300 was flat.
U.S. futures are near flat. Futures
tied to the broad S&P 500 index ticked down 0.1%, as did Nasdaq 100 futures. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost
26 points, or 0.1%.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said
Tuesday the Fed was committed to keeping inflation in check and would likely
keep rates steady until there’s more clarity on how tariffs might affect
prices.
Powell said policymakers were “well
positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before
considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”
Overnight stateside, the three major
averages closed higher. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average climbed 507.24 points, or 1.19%, and closed
at 43,089.02. The S&P 500 gained
1.11% to end at 6,092.18. The broad market index is now about 0.9% away from
its 52-week high. The Nasdaq
Composite advanced 1.43%, settling at 19,912.53. The Nasdaq 100 added 1.53% for a
record close of 22,190.52.
Oil prices climb over 1% after two
sessions of declines
Oil prices climbed over 1% in early Asia
hours Wednesday after two sessions of declines stateside.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate
crude rose 1.34% to $65.23 per barrel, while global benchmark Brent was up 1.28% at $68
per barrel as of 9.18 a.m. Singapore time.
This comes after oil prices tumbled
for a second day Tuesday, as the market bet that a ceasefire between Israel
and Iran would hold and the risk of a major crude supply disruption had faded.
While there has been a brief recovery, the
sharp decline in oil prices indicates the “continuing dominance of bears in the
market,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro’s chief market analyst.
Asia-Pacific
markets live: Australia CPI, Fed
Israel-Iran live updates: U.S. strikes failed to
destroy 'core pieces' of Tehran's nuclear program, intel report says
Updated Wed, Jun 25 2025 10:11 PM EDT
There is growing optimism that a ceasefire in
the brief war between Israel and Iran will
hold, after it was touted by U.S. President Donald Trump.
What to know:
- Trump
announced both Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire that
technically began at 12 a.m. ET.
- Early
in the ceasefire, both Israel and Iran appeared to violate it
by firing non-lethal rockets.
- Since
those initial violations, the ceasefire appears
to be holding.
- Airspace restrictions have
been partially lifted over Israel, and commercial flights are resuming.
- U.S. stocks posted
gains and oil prices fell
on investor optimism the ceasefire will hold.
- An
initial American intelligence assessment of U.S. strikes on Iran found
that the strikes did not destroy core parts of Iran’s nuclear program. The
White House disagreed with the findings.
Trump, rebutting news reports, says Iran’s nuclear sites ‘completely destroyed’
President
Trump on Tuesday night doubled down on his assertion that Iranian nuclear sites
were “completely destroyed,” rebutting earlier news reports that U.S. strikes
had failed to knock out the nation’s nuclear program.
An
initial assessment from the Defense Intelligence Agency, part of the Department
of Defense, found that the strike had only set back Iran’s nuclear program by
three to six months, CNN reported Tuesday. Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium
also wasn’t destroyed, it said.
The
New York Times and other media organizations also reported the contents of the
DoD assessment on Tuesday.
“FAKE
NEWS CNN, TOGETHER WITH THE FAILING NEW YORK TIMES, HAVE TEAMED UP IN AN
ATTEMPT TO DEMEAN ONE OF THE MOST SUCCESSFUL MILITARY STRIKES IN HISTORY,”
Trump wrote Tuesday night on Truth Social.
“THE
NUCLEAR SITES IN IRAN ARE COMPLETELY DESTROYED!” he wrote.
Israel-Iran
live updates: 'Core pieces' of Iran nuclear program remain
Trump Goes Absolutely
Berserk on Iran and Israel as Ceasefire Deal Crumbles: ‘They Don’t Know What
the F*ck They’re Doing’
David Gilmour Jun 24th, 2025, 7:05 am
President Donald Trump issued
a blunt warning to Israel on Tuesday to “not bomb Iran” as he departed for the
NATO summit in The Hague, taking a critical position just 24 hours after
brokering a fragile ceasefire already threatened after a missile strike from
Iran.
Speaking to reporters before takeoff, the
president said that both Israel and Iran had breached the terms of the truce
and made clear he was “not pleased” with Israel’s promise to launch retaliatory
airstrikes after agreeing to the deal.
Asked by a reporter about whether Iran had
violated the ceasefire Trump replied: “They violated but Israel violated it,
too.”
The president continued: “Israel as soon
as we made the deal they came out and they dropped a load of bombs the likes of
which I had never seen before. The biggest load that we have seen. I’m not
happy with Israel.”
He added: “You know, when I say ‘okay, now
you have 12 hours’ – you don’t go out in the first hour just drop everything
you have on them. So I’m not happy with them. I’m not happy with Iran either.
But I’m really unhappy if Israel is going out this morning because the one
rocket that didn’t land, that was shot, perhaps by mistake, that didn’t land,
I’m not happy about that.”
Before departing, he said: “We basically
have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard, that they don’t
know what the fuck they are doing.”
In a further post on Truth Social just
moments later he wrote:
ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO
IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW! DONALD J. TRUMP,
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
The comments come as the Israeli military
vowed to carry out “intense” retaliatory strikes on Tehran following ballistic
missile attacks from Iran that struck Beersheba on Tuesday morning, killing at
least four civilians. In response, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz ordered
a “forceful” counteroffensive, targeting what he described as “the heart of
Tehran.”
Israel’s top military officials framed the
action as a response to a “grave violation” of the US-brokered ceasefire and
vowed Iran would “pay.”
Tehran denied any role in the attacks.
Iranian state media claimed that “reports published about missile launches from
Iran toward the occupied territories after imposing a ceasefire on the Zionist
regime are denied,” accusing Israel of fabricating the provocation.
The ceasefire agreement – announced late
Monday by Trump from Palm Beach – was meant to phase out hostilities within 24
hours.
Trump
Rages at Iran and Israel as Ceasefire Deal Crumbles
Powell emphasizes Fed’s obligation to prevent
‘ongoing inflation problem’ despite Trump criticism
Published Tue, Jun 24 2025 8:30 AM EDT Updated
Tue, Jun 24 2025 12:38 PM EDT
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday
emphasized the central bank’s commitment to keeping inflation in check, saying
he expects policymakers to stay on hold until they have a better handle on the
impact tariffs will have on prices.
In remarks to be delivered
to two congressional committees this week, Powell characterized
economic growth as strong and the labor market to be around full employment.
However, he noted that inflation is still
above the Fed’s 2% target, with the impact that President Donald Trump’s tariffs will have
still unclear.
“Policy changes continue to evolve, and
their effects on the economy remain uncertain,” Powell said. “The effects of
tariffs will depend, among other things, on their ultimate level.”
Repeating what has become familiar
language from the Fed chief, Powell said policymakers are “well positioned to
wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering
any adjustments to our policy stance.”
The cautious tones could further
antagonize Trump, who has ramped
up his long-standing criticism of Powell. In his latest
broadside, posted early Tuesday on the president’s Truth Social
platform, Trump said he hopes “Congress really works this very dumb, hardheaded
person, over.”
Powell presented his comments, along with
the Fed’s monetary policy report, first to the House Financial Services
Committee on Tuesday, then will appear before the Senate Banking Committee a
day later.
House members repeatedly asked Powell
through the appearance the criteria for a cut, and he consistently said it will
take data through the summer to provide evidence that tariffs won’t provide a
prolonged inflation boost.
“We’re just trying to be careful and
cautious,” he said. “We really think that’s the best thing we can do for the
people that we serve.”
Asked whether pressure from the Trump
White House was having an impact on policy, Powell repeated past assertions
that politics has no role to play at the Fed.
“They’re having no effects,” he said of
the president’s attacks, which have grown increasingly personal. “We’re doing
our jobs.”
More
Powell
emphasizes Fed's obligation to prevent 'ongoing inflation problem' despite
Trump criticism
In other news.
NATO wants allies to spend 5% of GDP on defense:
This chart shows how hard it could be
Published Tue, Jun 24 2025 1:41 AM EDT
Before this week’s annual NATO summit had
even begun, allies reportedly agreed on Sunday to
hike their defense spending to 5% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2035. Getting to that
target, however is another matter.
The 5% figure is made up of 3.5% of GDP
that should be spent on “pure” defense, with an extra 1.5% of GDP going to
security-related infrastructure, such as cyber warfare capabilities and
intelligence.
The Western military alliance’s move on
Sunday — when NATO ambassadors reportedly agreed in principle on a compromise
text on the spending rise — showed member states were ready to acquiesce, at
least publicly, to Washington’s
demands for allies to pull their weight when it comes to defense and
security.
But one chart, based on NATO estimates for
members’ defense spending in 2024, shows what a tall order a 5% target will be
for the 32 member states, with some struggling to even meet the 2014 pact to
spend of 2% of GDP on defense.
---- Pushback
Defense spending has long been a thorny
subject for NATO members, and a persistent source of irritation for U.S.
President Donald Trump, who was demanding that
allies double their spending goals from 2% to 4% of GDP all the way
back in 2018.
NATO defense expenditure has nevertheless
sharply picked up among NATO members since Trump was last in power.
Back then, and arguably at the height of
the White House leader’s irritation with the bloc, only six member states met
the 2% target, including the U.S. Times have changed, however; by 2024, 23
members had reached the 2% threshold, according
to NATO data.
While some greatly surpassed that target —
such as Poland, Estonia, the U.S., Latvia and Greece — major economies
including Canada, Spain and Italy have lagged below the contribution threshold.
No NATO member has so far reached the 5%
spending objective, and some are highly likely to drag their feet when it comes
to getting to that milestone now.
Spain has already pushed against the
spending hike with Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez saying Madrid would not have to
meet the 5% target as it would only have to spend 2.1% of GDP to meet NATO’s
core military requirements, Reuters
reported.
“We fully respect the legitimate desire of
other countries to increase their defense investment, but we are not going to
do so,” Sanchez said in an address on Spanish television, according to the news
agency. Sanchez was reported last week to have called the hike, not only “unreasonable
but also counterproductive.”
Italy is another country that could
struggle to meet the 5% target. In
May it said it had just reached the 2% threshold and last
week Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto questioned the relevance of the
alliance, stating that NATO “as it is, no longer has a reason to exist.”
Meanwhile, Canada
has said it will meet the 2% by March 2026, having previously said it would
meet the target by 2030.
Even countries that are towing the line on
the 5% target, like Germany and the U.K., which both say they’re in favor of
the hike, could struggle to
reach it,
given economic pressures at home. Britain has reportedly requested a 3-year
delay to the hike. CNBC asked the British government for comment but has yet to
receive a reply.
More
This chart shows
how far NATO allies need to hike to get to 5% of GDP
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Federal
Reserve official Michelle Bowman calls for interest rate cut as soon as July
Vice-chair
for financial supervision says Donald Trump’s tariffs will have smaller effect
on inflation than feared
23
June 2025
Vice-chair
for financial supervision says Donald Trump’s tariffs will have smaller effect
on inflation than feared.
Bowman’s
remarks on Monday come after Christopher Waller, another Fed governor, said on
Friday that the US central bank should consider cutting rates as soon as next
month — highlighting a divide between central bank officials over how they
should respond to Trump’s tariffs.
Bowman
indicated that she would support a cut as soon as next month as recent data had
“not shown clear signs of material impacts from tariffs and other policies” and
that the inflationary effect of the trade war “may take longer, be more
delayed, and have a smaller effect than initially expected”.
“All considered, ongoing progress on trade and
tariff negotiations has led to an economic environment that is now demonstrably
less risky,” Bowman said. “As we think about the path forward, it is time to
consider adjusting the policy rate.”
The
two-year Treasury yield, which is particularly sensitive to rate expectations,
dropped to session lows following Bowman’s comments. The yield was last down
0.08 percentage points to 3.82 per cent as traders increased their bets on rate
cuts this year.
Bowman,
who took up her role this month after she was nominated by Trump earlier in
2025, also pointed to “signs of fragility in the labour market” and said “we
should put more weight on downside risks to our employment mandate going
forward”.
“Before
our next meeting in July, we will have received one additional month of
employment and inflation data,” she said in Prague on Monday.
“If upcoming data show inflation continuing to
evolve favourably, with upward pressures remaining limited to goods prices, or
if we see signs that softer spending is spilling over into weaker labour market
conditions, such developments should be addressed in our policy discussions and
reflected in our deliberations.”
The
Fed cut interest rates by 1 percentage point last year, but has been on pause
since December, with some officials reluctant to cut amid fears that the trade
war could stoke another bout of inflation.
The
central bank’s latest projections, released last week, showed that seven
officials think rates will need to remain on hold at 4.25-4.5 per cent for the
duration of this year to contain stronger price pressures.
But
10 of 19 officials who contribute to the forecasts still think the Fed will be
able to make two or more cuts this year. Those in favour of cutting have
pointed to tepid inflation data, with price growth in services in particular
weakening.
More
Federal Reserve official Michelle Bowman calls for interest rate cut as soon as July
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Tesla
robotaxi incidents caught on camera in Austin draw regulators’ attention
Published Mon, Jun 23 2025 6:54 PM EDT Updated Mon,
Jun 23 2025 7:40 PM EDT
Tesla was contacted by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
on Monday after videos posted on social media showed the company’s robotaxis driving in a
chaotic manner on public roads in Austin, Texas.
Elon Musk’s electric vehicle maker debuted autonomous trips in Austin on Sunday, opening the service to a limited number of riders by
invitation only.
In the videos shared widely
online, one Tesla robotaxi was spotted traveling the wrong way down a road, and
another was shown braking hard in the middle of traffic, responding to “stationary police vehicles
outside its driving path,” among several other examples.
A spokesperson for NHTSA said
in an e-mail that the agency “is aware of the referenced incidents and is in
contact with the manufacturer to gather additional information.”
Tesla Vice President of
Vehicle Engineering Lars Moravy, and regulatory counsel Casey Blaine didn’t
immediately respond to a request for comment.
The federal safety regulator
says it doesn’t “pre-approve new technologies or vehicle systems.” Instead,
automakers certify that each vehicle model they make meets federal motor
vehicle safety standards. The agency says it will investigate “incidents involving
potential safety defects,” and take “necessary actions to protect road safety,”
after assessing a wide array of reports and information.
NHTSA previously initiated
an investigation into possible safety defects
with Tesla’s FSD-Supervised technology, or FSD Beta systems, following
injurious and fatal accidents. That probe is ongoing.
The Tesla robotaxis in Austin
are Model Y SUVs equipped with the company’s latest FSD Unsupervised software
and hardware. The pilot robotaxi service, involving fewer than two-dozen
vehicles, operates during daylight hours and only in good weather, with a human
safety supervisor in the front passenger seat.
The service is now limited to
invited users, who agree to the terms of Tesla’s “early access program.” Those
who have received invites are mostly promoters of Tesla’s products, stock and
CEO.
While the rollout sent
Tesla shares up 8% on Monday, the launch fell shy of fulfilling Musk’s many driverless
promises over the past decade.
In 2015, Musk told
shareholders Tesla cars would achieve “full autonomy” within three years. In
2016, he said a Tesla EV would be able to make a cross-country drive without
needing any human intervention before the end of 2017. And in 2019, on a call with institutional investors that helped him raise more than $2 billion,
Musk said Tesla would have 1 million robotaxi-ready vehicles on the road in
2020, able to complete 100 hours of driving work per week each, making money
for their owners.
None of that has happened.
Meanwhile, Alphabet-owned Waymo says it has
surpassed 10 million paid trips last month. Competitors in China, including Baidu’s Apollo Go, WeRide and Pony.ai, are also operating
commercial robotaxi fleets.
Tesla robotaxi incidents caught on camera in Austin get NHTSA concern
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Comparative advantage is an economic theory created
by British economist David Ricardo in the 19th century. It argues that countries
can benefit from trading with each other by focusing on making the things they
are best at making, while buying the things they are not as good at making from
other countries. This theory is based on the idea that every country has
different cost structures and opportunity costs (costs in terms of other goods given up). By
focusing on their strengths, they can produce more efficiently. Ricardo’s
research demonstrated that even if one country can make everything more
efficiently than another country, international trade is still beneficial.
Comparative
advantage | Definition, Economics, & Facts | Britannica Money
Thousands
of important and intelligent men have never been able to grasp the principle of
comparative advantage or believe it even after it was explained to them.
Paul
Samuelson
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