Baltic
Dry Index. 1689 -62
Brent Crude 78.43
Spot Gold 3375 US 2 Year Yield 3.90 -0.04
US Federal Debt. 37.013 trillion
US GDP 30.089 trillion.
In gambling, the many must lose in order that the few may win.”
George Bernard Shaw
Well President Trump did it. He attacked Iran without cause and probably without constitutional legality. Other Presidents will follow Trump’s precedent. As President Trump blew up Iran, he blew up any remote chance of getting a Nobel Peace Prize.
The GREAT Gamble is on.
If it wins, peace in Iran, Israel, Gaza and the West Bank. Probably an end to the Ukraine war.
If it loses, a far wider Middle East war. A Moslem v the West undeclared war. Another oil shock. The UN following the earlier League of Nations into irrelevance and failure.
Sadly, the lesson to the rest of the world from Israel and Trump’s USA wars, get nukes and avoid attack. Mutual Assured Destruction works.
This is the second western duplicity in less than two weeks. The USA pretended meaningful USA/Iran nuclear talks were to take place on the Sunday, knowingly giving cover to Israel’s Friday’s surprise attack.
Then President Trump pretended he would take two weeks deciding on whether to join in Israel’s war on Iran, but bombing just two days later, obviously pre-planned.
Duplicity works until it doesn’t. Plus, it puts friend and foe alike distrusting the Washington/London War Party propaganda and spin.
President Trump’s Great gamble better win. The loss to the global economy, US economy and dollar reserve standard of a loss, is incalculable.
Either way, we should know within a few weeks.
Asia-Pacific markets decline as U.S. bombing of
Iran escalates Middle East crisis
Updated Mon, Jun 23 2025 12:09 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets declined Monday,
after the United States’ attack on three nuclear sites in Iran raised oil
prices and investors’ fears of an escalation in the Middle East conflict.
Oil prices have spiked in recent weeks
following the increased tensions in the Middle East.
Brent Crude was trading at
$78.51 per barrel after gaining 1.95% as of 12.06 p.m. Singapore time, while
the West Texas Intermediate
crude added 2.06% to $75.36.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 fell 0.32%, while
the broader Topix index declined 0.43%.
In South Korea, the Kospi index retreated 0.41%,
while the small-cap Kosdaq lost 1.42%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index moved down
0.13% in early trade, while mainland China’s CSI 300 index declined 0.2%.
Over in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 sank 0.43%.
India’s benchmark Nifty 50 dropped 0.9% while
the BSE Sensex fell 0.74%.
U.S.
equity futures fell in early Asia hours following the U.S. strikes in
Iran. Futures tied to the Dow
Jones Industrial Average fell by 109 points, or 0.3%. S&P 500 futures shed
0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures lost
0.4%.
Two of the three key benchmarks on Wall
Street fell last Friday as investors kept watch on the Middle East
conflict while contemplating the Federal Reserve’s plans for interest rate
cuts.
The S&P 500 declined 0.22% to
end at 5,967.84, making it the broad-based index’s third consecutive losing
session. The Nasdaq Composite dropped
0.51% and settled at 19,447.41, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked
up 35.16 points, or 0.08%, closing at 42,206.82.
Travel-related stocks fall on escalating
Middle East tensions
Shares of travel-related stocks in
Asia-Pacific extended their declines Monday following a surge in oil prices
after the U.S.′ strike on Iran over the weekend, as well as fears of supply
disruption from the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Straits are a critical
chokepoint for about a fifth of the world’s oil.
Losses in Japan were seen in Japan Airlines, which was
down 1.35% and ANA
Holdings which lost 1%, as of 10.50 a.m. Singapore time. ANA Holdings
is the parent company of several airlines, including All Nippon Airways, Air
Japan and Peach Aviation.
Other air carriers in Asia-Pacific were
also trading in negative territory, with Australia’s Qantas Airways down 2.09%
and South Korea’s Asiana Airlines down 1.75%. Hong Kong-listed Air China and Cathay Pacific Airways had
also fallen 1.48% and 0.2% respectively.
Losses were also seen in other
travel-related companies such as South Korean tour operators Lotte Tour
Development which plunged 4.34%, Modetour Network which was down 2.31% and Hana
Tour which had lost 2.35%.
Asia
stock markets today: live updates for June 23 2025
U.S. calls on China to prevent Iran from closing
Strait of Hormuz and disrupting global oil flows
Published Sun, Jun 22 2025 2:29 PM EDT
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday called
for China to prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most
important trade routes for crude oil in the world.
“I encourage the Chinese government in
Beijing to call them about that, because they heavily depend on the Straits of
Hormuz for their oil,” Rubio said in an interview on Fox News. China is Iran’s
most important oil customer and maintains friendly relations with the Islamic
Republic.
Iran’s foreign
minister warned earlier Sunday that the Islamic Republic “reserves all
options to defend its sovereignty,” after the U.S. bombed
three key nuclear sites over the weekend.
Iranian state-owned media, meanwhile,
reported that Iran’s parliament backed closing the Strait of Hormuz,
citing a senior lawmaker. However, the final decision to close the strait lies
with Iran’s national security council, according to the report.
An attempt to block the narrow waterway
between Iran and Oman could have profound consequences for the global economy.
Some 20 million barrels per day of crude oil, or 20% of global consumption,
flowed through the strait in 2024, according to the Energy
Information Administration.
More
U.S.
calls on China to prevent Iran from closing Strait of Hormuz
Oil India, ONGC, and other oil stocks in focus as
crude hits 5-month high after U.S. strikes Iranian nuclear sites
23 June 2025
Shares of oil and gas companies like Oil
India and ONGC are expected to be in focus on Monday after crude prices surged
to their highest levels since January, triggered by U.S. airstrikes on key
Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend.
Brent crude futures rose $1.88, or 2.44%,
to $78.89 a barrel as of 11:22 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
crude gained $1.87, or 2.53%, to $75.71.
Earlier in the session, both benchmarks
jumped over 3%, with Brent touching $81.40 and WTI reaching $78.40—both
five-month highs—before paring some gains.
The sharp rise came after U.S. President
Donald Trump announced that the U.S. had “obliterated” Iran’s main nuclear
sites over the weekend in coordination with Israeli forces. The escalation has
raised fears of further instability in the Middle East, with Iran vowing to
retaliate.
Iran, a key OPEC member, is the bloc’s
third-largest crude producer. The latest developments have sparked concerns
that Tehran could move to block the Strait of Hormuz—a critical waterway that
handles nearly 20% of global crude shipments.
Iran's Press TV reported that its
parliament has approved a measure to close the strait. While Iran has made
similar threats in the past, it has never followed through.
Since the conflict began on June 13, Brent
has surged 13%, while WTI is up around 10%.
Two Supertankers U-Turn in Strait of Hormuz After US Strikes
By Alex Longley
June 22, 2025 at 10:11 PM GMT+1 Updated
on June 23, 2025 at 4:21 AM GMT+1
Subscription required
Two
Supertankers U-Turn in Strait of Hormuz After US Strikes - Bloomberg
22 killed after suicide bomber opens fire
at church - and then detonates explosive vest
23 June 2025
At least 22 people have been killed after
a suicide bomber opened fire at a church in Syria - and then detonated an
explosive vest.
This is the first such incident
since Bashar al Assad was toppled in December, and
officials claim the attacker was a member of Islamic
State.
It happened at a Greek Orthodox church in
Damascus, with estimates suggesting that 350 worshippers were praying there at
the time.
Witnesses said the perpetrator had his
face covered when he began shooting - and blew himself up as crowds attempted
to remove him from the building.
A security source told Reuters that two
men were involved in the attack, with a priest saying he saw a second gunman at
the entrance.
Officials say 63 people were injured, and
children were among the casualties.
Syria's information minister, Hamza
Mostafa, condemned the terrorist attack - writing on X: "This cowardly act
goes against the civic values that bring us together.
----Footage filmed by Syria's civil
defence, the White Helmets, showed scenes of destruction inside the church -
including bloodied floors and shattered pews.
The Greek foreign ministry says it
"unequivocally condemns the abhorrent terrorist suicide bombing", and
called on Syria "to guarantee the safety" of Christians with new
measures.
22
killed after suicide bomber opens fire at church - and then detonates explosive
vest
In other news.
Is the US in a debt-fueled national death spiral?
by Myra Adams, opinion contributor -
06/20/25 7:00 AM ET
My Albanian-born father-in-law was an
American patriot. In the mid-20th century, he served for decades as a CIA
operative, quietly fighting against the spread of communism in Europe and
Southeast Asia.
Before his death at age 92, he lamented
America’s future, saying, “I’m glad I won’t be around to see the end.” Long
before the U.S. was on the brink
of World War III,
I shared his bittersweet pessimism, prompted by the “death spiral math” found
on the U.S. Debt Clock.
The “clock” ticks real-time government
data showing the ever-growing national debt — $36.9 trillion as of this writing
— the most owed by any country or empire in human history.
Nonetheless, this decades-long travesty of
overspending, attributed to presidents from both
parties,
is still manageable if the U.S. gross domestic product — estimated at $29.2
trillion in 2024 — were to exceed the nearly $37 trillion national debt. At
least, that is the economic theory recently espoused by Treasury Secretary
Scott Bessent, who stated, “If the
economy grows faster than the debt, we stabilize the country.”
Bessent’s philosophy of “we can grow our
way out of debt” supports adding an estimated $3.3
trillion to
the national debt, according to the Congressional Budget Office, if President
Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” were to become law.
Cue the laugh track, because Bessent’s
growth fantasy is a joke when viewed through the lens of history and facts. The
national debt has
exceeded GDP
since 2013, and the Debt Clock shows the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio today at 123
percent. Reducing that unwieldy ratio requires a sustained economic boom not
seen since the decades following World War II.
In 1946, due to five years of war, the
debt-to-GDP ratio reached a record 119
percent. If
that upside-down ratio had persisted, it is unlikely that the U.S. would have
maintained its global superpower status.
Fortunately, America managed to climb its
way out of debt through sustained post-war growth. Fueled by national optimism,
the country experienced a significant baby boom that spurred unprecedented
suburban expansion. The development of a national highway system,
coast-to-coast new infrastructure and technological advancements coincided with
the rise of consumerism, driven by wartime pent-up demand.
By 1966, after 20
years of growth (with
a few dips), the debt-to-GDP ratio decreased to 40
percent.
Then, in 1974, with the Vietnam War winding down, the U.S. achieved its lowest
post-war debt-to-GDP ratio of 31 percent, hitting that amount again in 1981 for
the last time.
After that, the debt-to-GDP ratio
continued its dramatic climb. Does anyone honestly believe that Trump’s “Golden
Age of America” policies
will stimulate levels of explosive growth needed to reduce the debt-to-GDP
ratio from 123 percent to double digits?
Bessent’s “we can grow our way out of
debt” wish-casting could easily be thwarted, starting with Trump’s trade war.
Then add untamed inflation, an aging population, ongoing global crises, natural
disasters, supply-chain issues, AI’s unpredictable impact and Trump’s
self-inflicted scientific brain
drain resulting
from cuts
to research funding.
Moreover, a shortage of highly skilled tech workers, the fallout from Trump’s
immigration policy, and economic uncertainty all contribute to slow growth,
while government spending remains unchecked.
No wonder the World
Bank recently issued new
economic projections contradicting Bessent’s optimism.
More
Is America in a
debt-fueled national death spiral?
Japan pulls out of talks with Trump administration
after ‘being ordered to spend more on defence’
21 June 2025
Japan has
cancelled an annual security meeting with the US after
the Donald
Trump administration
told the country it had to spend more on defence.
US secretary of state Marco Rubio and
defence secretary Pete Hegseth were set to meet the Japanese defence minister
Gen Nakatani and foreign minister Takeshi Iwaya in Washington on 1 July for
annual “2+2” security talks, a reference to the two senior ministers involved
on each side.
However, Japan cancelled the meeting after
the US demanded Japan increase its defence spending to 3.5% of
GDP, an increase on an earlier request of 3 per cent, according to a report on
Friday by the Financial Times. This new demand was made the
third-most senior official at the Pentagon Elbridge Colby, the paper added.
Without citing any reason, a US official
asking to be anonymous confirmed to Reuters that Japan had “postponed” the
meeting several weeks ago.
Japan and the US have not discussed these
targets for higher spending, a Japanese foreign ministry official requesting
anonymity told Reuters.
On Saturday, chief Pentagon spokesman Sean
Parnell said US allies in Asia need to spend 5 per cent of their GDP on
defence.
“European allies are now setting the
global standard for our alliances, especially in Asia, which is 5 per cent of
GDP spending on defence. Given the enormous military buildup of China, as well
as North Korea's ongoing nuclear and missile developments, it is only common
sense for Asia-Pacific allies to move rapidly to step up to match Europe's pace
and level of defence spending,” Mr Parnell told Nikkei.
In March, Mr Trump had said: “We have a
great relationship with Japan, but we have an interesting deal with Japan that
we have to protect them, but they don’t have to protect us.
“That’s the way the deal reads. We have to
protect Japan. And, by the way, they make a fortune with us economically. I
actually ask, who makes these deals?”
The deal Mr Trump is referring to is the
Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security, signed by Japan and the US in 1951
and revised in 1960, which requires the US to defend Japan if attacked. The
deal combined with Japan’s post-war pacifist constitution to provide the
country with security guarantees, given it was obliged not to have an armed
forces of its own. It did not include an obligation for Japan to defend the US
in return.
As part of the agreement, the US is able
to maintain
military bases in Japan, key strategic footholds west of the Pacific.
Responding during a parliamentary session,
Japanese prime minister Shigeru Ishiba said: “Japan has no obligation to
protect the US, that is true, but Japan is obliged to provide bases for the US.
I am surprised that President Trump said this.”
More
Japan pulls out of
talks with Trump administration after ‘being ordered to spend more on defence’
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Trump's economic 'golden age' meets Fed's brass
tacks
Fri, June 20, 2025 at 11:02 AM GMT+1
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -President Donald
Trump's inauguration promise in January that "the golden age of America
begins right now" remains unfulfilled in the outlook of Federal Reserve
officials who so far see his policies slowing the economy, raising unemployment
and inflation, and clouding the horizon with a still-unresolved tariff debate
that could deliver a fresh shock in coming weeks.
The U.S. central bank's response has been
to put planned interest rate cuts on hold until perhaps the fall while the
debates over tariffs and other administration priorities unfold, and to project
a slower eventual pace of rate cuts to a higher stopping point. Effectively it
embeds steeper borrowing costs into Fed policymakers' outlook to insure against
inflation they now see as higher in coming months than they did before Trump
took office for a second time.
That isn't welcome news for Trump, who has
called Fed Chair Jerome Powell "stupid" for not slashing rates
immediately. It is no more welcome for U.S. consumers and homebuyers hoping for
lower financing costs. And it puts the Fed somewhat out of step with other
central banks that continue to lower rates.
But it does highlight how much Trump's
early policy moves, particularly on tariffs, have reshaped the short-term
outlook for the world's largest economy, which at the end of last year was seen
on track for continued above-trend growth, full employment and inflation
steadily falling to the Fed's 2% target. The steady series of rate cuts
policymakers anticipated just six months ago has been replaced with a more
tentative path as they wait for Trump's final decisions on tariffs and watch
how the job market, consumer spending and inflation evolve.
"We feel like we're going to learn a
great deal more over the summer on tariffs," Powell told reporters on
Wednesday after the Fed held its benchmark overnight rate in the 4.25%-4.50%
range for the fourth straight meeting, and issued new projections showing
inflation rising substantially by the end of this year and coming down slowly
after that point.
Trump has latched on to recent weak
inflation readings to argue for rate cuts, reiterating on Thursday that the Fed
should slash its benchmark rate nearly in half and noting earlier in the week
that the European Central Bank and others had kept easing monetary policy.
But, referring to the impact of the
tariffs imposed so far, Powell said "we hadn't expected them to show up
much by now, and they haven't ... We will see the extent to which they do over
coming months ... That's going to inform our thinking."
LITTLE CONFIDENCE
At this point, investors expect the Fed to
cut rates at its September 16-17 meeting, though much will depend on what
happens during Powell's summer of watching and waiting.
The most aggressive of Trump's tariff
plans, levies on most trading partners announced on "Liberation Day"
in early April, were postponed after bond yields spiked, stocks dropped, and
economists began penciling in a U.S. recession. The pause ends on July 9, with
countries, including those in the European Union's combined trading bloc,
supposed to negotiate deals by then or face steep import levies - 50% in the
case of the EU.
The only completed deal so far is a
limited agreement with Britain.
Though the Fed's new policy statement this
week said "uncertainty about the economic outlook has diminished"
since its May 6-7 meeting, when volatility around the trade issue was still
intense, the situation could change quickly based on the July 9 deadline.
"We don't yet know with any
confidence where they will settle out," Powell said.
More
Trump's economic
'golden age' meets Fed's brass tacks
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
This new material is eight times stronger than graphene
June 19, 2025
Researchers have created a new 2D carbon
material that is actually stronger than graphene. The material was created by
researchers at Rice University, and they say that it is strong enough to
prevent cracks from forming easily, and that it can absorb more energy before
breaking.
Graphene is often considered a
"miracle" material because of its strength. In fact, it's so strong
that many consider it the strongest material to be tested so far, and it has
even acted as the foundation of some groundbreaking new materials from MIT and
others.
But this new two-dimensional material
could be even better, the researchers claim in their paper,
which is published in the journal Matter. The researchers behind
the material call it MAC, which is short for monolayer amorphous carbon. They
claim MAC is able to withstand more pressure before it cracks thanks to its
unique design that combines crystalline and disordered regions.
This allows the material to utilize a
different composite structure than other materials like it. When testing the
new 2D material, the researchers say it actually showed that cracks slowed and
even branched before eventually leading the material to break. The thinness of
the material is also a high point for researchers, as its unique thinness could
prove extremely useful in applications, especially for smaller electronics and
devices.
The goal with a material like this is to
expand upon our already useful pool of materials and find thinner, stronger
options for areas where brittleness needs to be ruled out. The forced branching
is a form of stalling, which causes the crack to take longer to actually break
the material thoroughly. This results in a longer lasting material that can
take more pressure before it eventually reaches the end of its life.
The new 2D material is created similarly
to how graphene is created, which means the process can be scaled up
exponentially to make the material ready for use in a variety of industries and
areas. This new material is one of the first clear demonstrations that a
combination of internal structures like this can make new materials worth
exploring.
The strength showcased by MAC, as well
as its scalability, make it an optimal alternative to graphene in places where
more strength is needed.
This new material is eight times stronger than graphene
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
The first panacea for a
mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a
temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of
political and economic opportunists.
Ernest Hemingway
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