Baltic Dry Index. 1489 +59 Brent Crude 64.68
Spot Gold 3368 US 2 Year Yield 3.87 -0.08
US Federal Debt. 36.938 trillion US GDP 30.051 trillion.
The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.
Ben Bernanke
Little need for my input today, except to say President Trump and Massachusetts Senator Warren seem determined to hasten global flight from the dollar reserve currency. More central bank gold buying ahead.
South Korea
stocks extend post-election gains, hover at 10-month highs amid mixed Asia
markets
Updated
Thu, Jun 5 2025 12:10 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific
markets traded mixed Thursday, after private sector hiring in the U.S. hit its
lowest level in over two years, raising concerns that trade policy uncertainty
could be weighing on the world’s largest economy.
A report
from payrolls processing firm ADP showed that payrolls rose only
37,000 for the month, less than the downwardly revised 60,000 in April and
below the consensus forecast of 110,000 that economists polled by Dow Jones had
forecast.
South
Korean markets extended gains from the previous session, with the
benchmark Kospi advancing
1.33% after hitting a more than 10-month high earlier in the day, while the
small-cap Kosdaq rose 0.79%.
Analysts
at Nomura expect the Kospi to hit 2,900 by the end of the year, fueled by
capital market reforms President Lee Jae-myung is expected to undertake. It is
currently at around 2,800.
Lee is
also expected to “focus on lifting domestic demand by quickly rolling out a
second extra budget in July,” the bank’s analysts, led by Jeong Woo Park, wrote
in a Wednesday note.
“We
expect a more expansionary fiscal policy during his presidency than in the
government’s long-term fiscal plan (an average 3.7% y-o-y rise in spending over
the next three years),” they added.
Japan’s
benchmark Nikkei 225 fell
0.42%, while the broader Topix index lost 1.02%
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.14%.
Hong
Kong’s Hang Seng index added
0.46% while mainland China’s CSI 300 was little changed.
India’s
benchmark Nifty 50 and BSE
Sensex started the day flat. The Reserve Bank of India is expected to cut its
benchmark interest rate by a quarter-percentage point to 5.75% on Friday after
a two-day meeting.
U.S.
futures were little changed after the Dow Jones Industrial Average snapped
a four-day win streak.
Overnight
stateside, the 30-stock Dow lost 91.90 points, or 0.22%, ending at
42,427.74. The blue-chip average snapped a four-day winning run. Meanwhile, the
broad-based S&P 500 advanced
0.01% and closed at 5,970.81, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.32%
and settled at 19,460.49.
Asia
stock markets today: live updates for June 6 2025
Trump calls for
scrapping debt limit
06/04/25
2:18 PM ET
President
Trump doubled down Wednesday on calls to scrap the nation’s debt ceiling,
pressing for bipartisan action to abolish it and finding common ground with
Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.).
“I am
very pleased to announce that, after all of these years, I agree with Senator
Elizabeth Warren on SOMETHING. The Debt Limit should be entirely scrapped to
prevent an Economic catastrophe. It is too devastating to be put in the hands
of political people that may want to use it despite the horrendous effect it
could have on our Country and, indirectly, even the World. As to Senator
Warren’s second statement on the $4 Trillion Dollars, I like that also, but it
would have to be done over a period of time, as short as possible. Let’s get
together, Republican and Democrat, and DO THIS!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
He shared
Warren’s post on the social platform X from Friday, when she agreed
with Trump that the debt limit “should be scrapped” and called for a bipartisan
bill to “get rid of it forever.”
Warren
had posted Trump’s comments in which he noted the progressive senator has long
supported abolishing the debt limit in the past. He said he “always agreed with
her” on the matter, adding that he hasn’t spoken to her personally about it.
More
Donald
Trump calls for scrapping debt limit
Trump tax bill
will add $2.4 trillion to the deficit and leave 10.9 million more uninsured,
CBO says
Updated
1:23 AM GMT+1, June 5, 2025
WASHINGTON
(AP) — President Donald Trump’s big bill in
Congress would unleash trillions in tax cuts and slash spending, but
also spike deficits by $2.4 trillion over the decade and leave some 10.9
million more people without health insurance, raising the political stakes for
the GOP’s signature domestic priority.
Republican
leaders in Congress, determined to muscle the sweeping package forward, had
little to say after the analysis released Wednesday by the
nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. GOP senators spent more than an
hour at the White House in what they called a robust afternoon discussion with
Trump.
“We’re
committed to making a law that will make the lives of the American people
better,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota said afterward. He
vowed to “get this done one way or another.”
But
Democrats angling to halt the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, named after the
president’s own catchphrase, piled on with relentless opposition.
“In the
words of Elon Musk, this bill is a ‘disgusting abomination,’” said Rep. Brendan
Boyle of Pennsylvania, the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee,
reviving the
billionaire former Trump aide’s criticism of the package.
The
analysis comes at a crucial moment as Trump
is pushing Congress, where Republicans have majority control, to send the
final product to his desk to become law by the Fourth of July. The House passed
the bill last month by a single vote, but it’s now slogging through the Senate,
where Republicans want a number of significant changes, including those
discussed with Trump.
And the
politics are only intensifying.
Musk
blindsided Congress with an all-out assault against the bill this week, leaving
House Speaker
Mike Johnson rushing to do damage control. The GOP speaker said he
called Musk to discuss the criticism, but had not heard back. Musk has
threatened to use his political apparatus to go after Republicans in the
midterm elections.
“I hope
he comes around,” Johnson, R-La., told reporters.
Hours
later, Musk, whose business interests could be impacted by green energy
rollbacks in the bill, implored voters to call their representatives and
senators. “Bankrupting America is NOT ok!” he wrote on social media, “KILL the
BILL.”
More
CBO: Trump bill will add $2.4T to deficit, leave 10.9M more uninsured | AP News
US Hiring Cools
to Slowest Pace in Two Years
June 4,
2025 at 10:56 PM GMT+1
|
US Hiring at Slowest Pace in Two Years: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg
In other news.
Donald Trump
tells Jay Powell to cut rates as data raises concern for US economy
June 4,
2025
Donald
Trump has called on Jay Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, to cut US interest
rates, as new data showed weak private sector hiring and a contraction in the
services sector, raising fears of an economic slowdown.
Trump
launched his attack on the US central bank in a Truth Social post on Wednesday,
where he compared it with the European Central Bank, which has been lowering
interest rates this year while the Fed has kept them steady.
“ADP
NUMBER OUT!!! “Too Late” Powell must now LOWER THE RATE. He is unbelievable!!!
Europe has lowered NINE TIMES!” Trump wrote, referring to the private sector
payroll numbers provided by Automatic Data Processing, a US company.
The
figures showed an increase of just 37,000 jobs in May, the lowest monthly gain
since March 2023. Shortly afterwards, the ISM’s index of activity in the
services sector showed an unexpected if slight contraction, adding to concerns
about the US economic outlook.
“Respondents
continued to report difficulty in forecasting and planning due to longer-term
tariff uncertainty and frequently cited efforts to delay or minimise ordering
until impacts become clearer,” said Steve Miller, chair of the ISM’s services
business survey committee.
So far,
the US economy has
shown signs of resilience in the face of Trump’s aggressively protectionist
trade policies and efforts to slash government programmes and gut some federal
agencies.
But the
weak figures on private hiring and the services sector could reignite concerns
that the world’s largest economy is set for a slowdown in the months ahead.
The soft
data on Wednesday raises the stakes for Friday’s monthly jobs figures — and
what they will tell markets about the health of the US economy.
Economists
surveyed by Bloomberg expect a slowdown in job creation to 130,000 positions in
May, compared with 177,000 in April. The unemployment rate in May is expected
to remain at 4.2 per cent.
Last
week, Trump met Powell at the White House and warned him that the Fed chair was
making a “mistake” by not lowering the central bank’s main interest rate from
its current range of 4.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent.
According
to the Fed, Powell told Trump that monetary policy would be dictated by
economic data alone and its decisions would be “based solely on careful,
objective and non-political analysis”.
Trump has
frequently and publicly criticised the Fed, both in this
first and second presidential terms, raising concerns that the president is
undermining the independence of the US central bank.
But Trump
has recently backed away from previous suggestions that he would try to remove
Powell from his post before his term ends in May 2026.
Donald
Trump tells Jay Powell to cut rates as data raises concern for US economy
UK services jobs
decline on ‘longest streak’ since financial crash
Wednesday
04 June 2025 10:35 am
Sliding
employment levels in the UK service sector over the last eight months amount to
the “longest streak” since the 2008 financial crash – barring the pandemic –
according to S&P Global analysts.
UK firms
are facing intense pressure to maintain profit margins after a labour costs
surge following Chancellor
Reeves‘ tax raid on employers’ national insurance
contributions (NICs) that kicked into effect in April.
Fresh
data has now suggested that extra costs through tax hikes and reduced workloads
have forced companies to cut staff at a level not seen since the aftermath of
the 2008 financial crisis, excluding the pandemic when many workers were unable
to operate.
Service
providers told researchers at S&P Global that staff leavers were not
replaced in May, leading to a “sustained downturn” in headcounts across UK
firms.
More
positive data showed job shedding was at its slowest pace since November 2024,
S&P Global’s latest services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) also
showed.
The
important indicator for growth in the UK economy said there was a mild expansion
in output in May, with the composite output figure standing at 50.3, which is
just above S&P Global’s 50-figure neutral benchmark.
The
latest PMI reading was the second-lowest since October 2023.
Services
confidence is ‘steady’
Business
activity increased more than an earlier ‘flash’
reading suggested while confidence among service
providers was at its highest level in seven months.
Demand
for new work in both domestic and overseas markets also slumped as a result of
US tariff turmoil, researchers added.
S&P
Global economics director Tim Moore said the service sector “regained its
poise” last month as fewer firms raised concerns about trade tensions and
wobbly financial markets.
“Although
only marginal, the upturn in service sector activity was stronger than first
estimated in May,” Moore said.
“Optimism
reached its highest level since October 2024, which reflected forthcoming
business investment plans alongside hopes of a turnaround in sales pipelines
and improving domestic economic prospects.”
Rob Wood,
chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the data showed the UK
economy could now escape facing the worst effects of President
Trump’s tariffs.
“UK
growth has passed the worst as President Trump walking back his more ruinous
tariffs cuts the panic that took hold in April,” Wood said.
“Even
after the latest salvo from Mr Trump on steel tariffs—which the UK gained a
short reprieve from—policy uncertainty is still down by 60 per cent from its
mid-April peak.
“Take out
the overly large response of business sentiment to uncertainty, as well as
smoothing through volatility, and services business sentiment has been steady
since October at a level consistent with only slightly below potential GDP
growth.”
UK services jobs
decline on ‘longest streak’ since financial crash
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
US
labour market shows signs of cooling amid growing stagflation fears
Published: Jun
04, 2025, 13:15 IST | Updated: Jun 04, 2025, 13:15 IST
The
US labour market showed a mixed picture in April, with job openings increasing
slightly while layoffs ticked higher, signalling a potential shift towards a
slower economy.
According
to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report from the
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), available positions rose by 191,000 to 7.39
million by the end of April, up from 7.20 million in the previous month,
surpassing analysts’ expectations.
Economists
had forecast 7.10 million openings, but the increase in vacancies was largely
driven by sectors such as health care and social assistance.
However,
not all industries experienced growth in job openings. Manufacturing,
accommodation, and food services saw a decline in available positions, and
state and local government education also showed a noticeable drop. The overall
picture was one of stability, with job openings fluctuating within a narrow
range of 7 million to 8 million for the past year.
Hiring
increased slightly in April, rising by 169,000 to a total of 5.57 million, but
the pace of new jobs was still far below the pace set earlier in 2022. While
the rise in hiring may seem encouraging, the number of layoffs surged to 1.78
million, a worrying sign that companies could be trimming their workforces in
response to mounting economic pressures.
Tariff
uncertainty and its impact on the job market
One
major factor affecting the labour market is the ongoing trade war and the
tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. The uncertainty surrounding these
import duties has left businesses struggling to plan for the future.
Last
week, a US trade court blocked most of Trump’s tariffs, only for them to be
reinstated by a federal appeals court. Economists say that businesses remain in
limbo, unsure of whether the tariffs will be sustained or further escalated,
which could affect their hiring and investment plans.
The
tariffs have already had a dampening effect on business sentiment, contributing
to the slower pace of hiring and increasing layoffs. Consumers are also feeling
the effects, with growing concern over the labour market’s future.
The
Conference Board’s labour market differential, a measure of the difference
between jobs available and the number of unemployed workers, has narrowed
considerably in recent months. The increasing uncertainty, combined with fears
of rising prices due to tariffs, has weighed on consumer confidence and
expectations for future job growth.
More
US labour market
shows signs of cooling amid growing stagflation fears
Inflation
slides to 1.9% in Europe, as worries shift from prices to Trump and tariffs
3
June 2025
Inflation in the 20
countries that use the euro fell to 1.9% in May from 2.2% in April, clearing
the way for more rate cuts from the European Central
Bank to
support growth in the face of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff
offensive.
Lower
energy prices helped bring consumer prices in May to below the ECB's 2% target
for the first time since September. Increasing signs that inflation is back
under control after a painful outbreak in 2021-23 leaves room for the ECB to
turn its attention to worries about the impact of a slew of new import taxes on
EU goods in the US that threaten to slow Europe's export-oriented
economy.
Reductions
in the ECB's benchmark rate, currently at 2.25%, lower borrowing costs
throughout the economy, making it easier to buy things on credit and
stimulating economic activity and investment. Higher rates combat inflation,
but for the moment that battle appears to have been won.
The
ECB's rate-setting council meets on Thursday under bank President Christine
Lagarde to determine the next step on rates. Analysts expect a cut of a quarter
percentage point and for Lagarde to indicate that at least one more cut is
possible at future meetings.
Trump
has raised tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos from almost all trading
partners to 25%, and has now said he will raise the rate to 50% on steel, as
well as proposing a 20% tariff on all European Union goods. That last tariff
has been paused ahead of a July 14 deadline pending negotiations with EU
officials. Worries about the impact of tariffs on growth led the European
Union's executive commission to cut its growth forecast for the 20 euro member
countries this year to 0.9% from 1.3% in its fall 2024 forecast.
Inflation slides to 1.9% in Europe, as worries shift from prices to Trump and tariffs
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Covid-19 cases surge
in Thailand, over 28,000 new cases in two days
UPDATED Jun 04,
2025, 01:33 PM
BANGKOK - Thailand’s
Department of Disease Control (DDC) on June 3 reported the Covid-19 situation
for week 23 of 2025 via the digital disease surveillance (DDS) system.
The latest data, as at
June 2, showed 10,192 new cases. Previously, on June 1, there were 18,102 new
cases, bringing the total new cases in the past two days to 28,294.
Of the new cases, 9,304
were outpatients, and 888 were severe cases requiring hospitalisation.
Additionally, one death was reported.
As at May 27, the
cumulative total of Covid-19 cases for 2025 stands at 323,301, with 69 deaths
in total this year.
Dr Taweesin Visanuyothin,
director-general of the department of medical services, stated that the
increasing number of cases is likely due to the early arrival of the rainy
season and the opening of schools. He noted that this period also coincides
with a rise in influenza cases, which have similar symptoms to Covid-19.
In 2025, the reported 69
deaths were primarily among the “608 group”, which includes elderly individuals
and those with underlying conditions, particularly in large cities and tourist
destinations like Bangkok (22 deaths), Chonburi (8 deaths), Chanthaburi (7
deaths), and Chiang Mai (3 deaths).
The mortality rate
remains low, at 0.106 per 100,000 people, suggesting that the disease is not
becoming more severe.
More
Covid-19 cases surge in Thailand, over 28,000 new cases in two days | The
Straits Times
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Perovskite
Solar Cells: What They Are and Why They Matter
Jun 3,
2025
Perovskite
solar cells are a high-efficiency, low-cost alternative to traditional
silicon-based solar panels. With the perovskite solar cell industry expected to
reach $1.2
billion by 2033, there’s enormous potential for this
next-generation technology.
The
Basics of Perovskites
Perovskites
are a type of material, with a distinctive crystal structure described as ABX3 (Figure
1). These crystals occur naturally in the form of calcium titanate, but this
mineral has few practical uses.
Replicating
this structure with specific combinations of organic and inorganic materials
can create a perovskite semiconductor. These synthetic perovskites, depending
on the atoms in the structure, have an impressive array of interesting
properties. Certain perovskites are excellent at absorbing sunlight and
converting it into electrical energy, and this is what they are known for in
the solar industry.
Perovskites
vs. Silicon
In
some ways, perovskites are even better at absorbing sunlight than silicon,
which currently dominates 95% of the commercial solar panel market. What makes
perovskites particularly exciting for researchers is the rapid advancement in
their solar cell efficiency. Since 2009, the maximum efficiency of perovskite
solar cells has risen from 3.9% to 30.1%—it
took 37 years for crystalline silicon solar cells to achieve comparable
efficiencies.
While
silicon is currently the standard, it is not an ideal solar material, as it has
an indirect bandgap. You cannot significantly change its material properties,
so the only solution is to use a relatively thick layer of silicon, making sure
as much light as possible is absorbed. This means silicon solar panels are
traditionally large, rigid, and heavy. On the other hand, researchers can tune
the properties of perovskites to have an optimal bandgap for sunlight
absorbance. With careful material selection and device engineering, perovskites
can efficiently absorb sunlight even when coated in very thin layers, often
below micrometer-level thicknesses. With these thin layers, perovskite solar
cells are lightweight, can be made on flexible substrates, and can even be used
in semi-transparent solar panels.
In
their production, perovskite solar cells can be entirely solution processed.
This means that they can be made with scalable methods like slot-die coating
(Figure 2) and ink jet printing. These techniques are much cheaper and produce
less waste than the processing of silicon. Large-scale perovskite solar cells
have the potential to be cost-effective compared to the dominant silicon solar
technology.
More
Perovskite Solar
Cells: What They Are and Why They Matter
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Economics
is a very difficult subject. I've compared it to trying to learn how to repair
a car when the engine is running.
Ben
Bernanke
No comments:
Post a Comment