Baltic
Dry Index. 1674 -15
Brent Crude 69.51
Spot Gold 3349 US 2 Year Yield 3.84 -0.06
US Federal Debt. 37.017 trillion
US GDP 30.091 trillion.
No one should ever sit in this office over 70 years old, and that I know.
Dwight D. Eisenhower
Was that it? Is the Israel/USA war on Iran already over?
President Donald Trump announced that Iran
and Israel had agreed to a ceasefire.
“It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE ... for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
President Trump wouldn’t overstate, misstate, dissimulate, would he?
The global stock casinos and oil markets are already taking it for granted.
Still, no one seems to have told Israel or Iran.
While Israel has not made a public comment on Trump’s statement, Iran has actually refuted the claims.
Perhaps both will get the memo later today.
Asia-Pacific markets rise after Trump says Israel
and Iran agree to ceasefire
Updated Tue, Jun 24 2025 12:20 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets rose Tuesday after
United States President Donald Trump announced that Iran and Israel had agreed
to a ceasefire.
“It has been fully agreed by and between
Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE ... for 12
hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED!” Trump wrote on Truth
Social.
While Israel has not made a public comment
on Trump’s statement, Iran
has actually refuted the claims.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 climbed 1.59%,
while the broader Topix index rose 1.32%. South Korea’s Kospi jumped 2.09% and
the small-cap Kosdaq index rose 1.71%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 traded 0.69%
higher.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 1.38%,
while mainland China’s CSI 300 was flat.
U.S. futures took a leg higher following
Trump’s announcement. Futures
tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 134 points, or
0.3%. S&P 500 futures gained
0.4%, while Nasdaq 100
futures rose 0.6%.
Overnight stateside, the three major
averages closed higher as investors breathed a sigh of relief that Iran’s
response to the U.S. attacks over the weekend was more restrained than
expected. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average added 374.96 points, or 0.89%, ending at 42,581.78.
The S&P 500 gained
0.96% and closed at 6,025.17, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed
0.94% and settled at 19,630.97.
Asia-Pacific
markets live: Trump, Iran-Israel ceasefire
European stocks set to open higher amid hopes for
an Iran-Israel ceasefire
Updated Tue, Jun 24 2025 12:35 AM EDT
Good morning from London on Tuesday, and
welcome to CNBC’s live blog covering European financial markets and the latest
regional and global business news, data and earnings.
Futures data from IG suggests a positive
start for European markets, with London’s FTSE looking set to open
0.3% higher at 8,792, Germany’s DAX up 1.1% 23,541,
France’s CAC 40 1%
higher at 7,618 and Italy’s FTSE
MIB also up 1% at 39,321.
Global market sentiment rose after
President Donald Trump said that there is a ceasefire timeline for Israel and
Iran, prompting U.S.
stock futures and Asia-Pacific
markets to rise on Monday night.
“It has been fully agreed by and between
Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE ... for 12
hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED!” Trump wrote on Truth
Social.
Neither Iran nor Israel has publicly
confirmed acceptance of a ceasefire timeline, however.
European
markets on Tues June 24: Stoxx 600, DAX, FTSE, CAC 40
Stock futures rise after Trump says there is a
ceasefire timeline for Iran-Israel conflict: Live updates
Updated Tue, Jun 24 2025 8:11 PM EDT
Stock futures rose on Monday night after
President Donald Trump said that there is a ceasefire timeline for Israel and
Iran.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average added 185 points, or 0.4%. S&P 500 futures gained
0.5%, while Nasdaq 100
futures rose 0.7%. Stock futures took a leg higher after President
Donald Trump announced on Truth Social a ceasefire
timeline that he said would end the conflict between Iran and
Israel. Brent crude futures and West Texas Intermediate futures were
also down in extended trading, slipping more than 3%.
The three major averages rose in the
regular session as investors appeared to look past Iran’s retaliatory
strike on a U.S. military base in Qatar. Qatar’s Defense Ministry said
that its air defense had intercepted the attack. The Dow rose nearly 375 points,
while the S&P 500 added
0.96%. The Nasdaq Composite gained
0.94%.
No casualties were reported from Monday’s
incident. This attack was in retaliation for the United States striking
nuclear development facilities in Iran on Saturday.
Stocks also caught a tailwind from falling
oil prices on Monday. WTI futures reached their highest levels since January
overnight, but settled down more than 7%.
“We probably built as much as a $15 to $20
per barrel premium in oil over the last week versus where we were trading
pre-Israel, Iran. And we’re now in the process of eliminating that,” said
Veriten’s Arjun Murti on CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime” on Monday. “I think
the market is saying, ‘Hey, it looks like the worst of this turmoil is behind
us.’ If we are on track to avoid a bigger war, that is unquestionably good
news.”
On Tuesday morning, traders will watch
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as he
speaks before the House Financial Services Committee and presents the
central bank’s monetary policy report. The central bank chief will go before
the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday.
Powell’s appearance on Capitol Hill comes
at a pivotal time: He is facing an
aggressive push from the White House to cut rates — and in recent
days two
Fed officials have said they could see a case for dialing back
policy as
early as July.
On the economic release front, traders
will also watch out for home price data and June’s consumer confidence reading.
Stock
market today: Live updates
Iran Retaliation Against US Fits
De-Escalation Playbook
June 23, 2025 at 11:04 PM GMT+1
Iran retaliated for a weekend attack
on its nuclear facilities by firing
missiles at an American air base in Qatar, a response that
had all the hallmarks of an offer of de-escalation. Iran’s attack was
reportedly telegraphed well in advance. Iran’s Supreme National Security
Council said the number of missiles fired matched the number of bombs dropped
by the US on the Islamic Republic and that its strike “poses no danger” to
Qatar, which it called “our friendly and brotherly country.”
One official with knowledge of Western
intelligence assessments said the retaliatory attack was a typical example of
an “off-ramp” escalation. They warned that the more difficult part is
understanding whether—and at what point—Israel
would stop its own attacks on Iran, which have killed hundreds of
people. US President Donald Trump on Monday seemed
open to the potential for ending the US-Iran conflict with one
exchange of fire.
Nevertheless, by launching a surprise
attack on Iran with no publicly known threat to the US, and following more than
a week of war triggered by Israel’s own surprise airstrikes, Trump’s
bombing set off a new firestorm at home. The Republican’s actions were
assailed by Democrats, and by a few in his own party, as unconstitutional and
risking yet another US war in the Middle East.
And whether the strikes accomplished
Trump’s stated intent—destroying Iran’s nuclear capabilities—is yet to be
known, though international observers said significant damage was
likely. —Natasha
Solo-Lyons and David
E. Rovella
Iran
Retaliation Against US Fits De-Escalation Playbook: Evening Briefing -
Bloomberg
Germany and Italy pressed to bring $245bn of gold
home from US
Trump’s attacks on the Fed and growing
geopolitical risks reignite public debate about repatriating bullion
24 June 2025
Germany and Italy are facing calls to move
their gold out of New York following President Donald Trump’s repeated attacks
on the US Federal Reserve and increasing geopolitical turbulence.
Fabio De Masi, a former Die Linke MEP who
joined the leftwing populist BSW party, told the Financial Times that there
were “strong arguments” for relocating more gold to
Europe or Germany “in turbulent times”.
Germany and Italy hold the world’s second-
and third-largest national gold reserves after the US, with reserves of 3,352
tonnes and 2,452 tonnes, respectively, according to World Gold Council data.
Both rely heavily on the New York Federal Reserve in Manhattan as a custodian,
each storing more than a third of their bullion in the US. Between them, the
gold stored in the US has a market value of more than $245bn, according to FT
calculations.
This is largely down to historic reasons
but also reflects New York’s status as one of the world’s most important
trading hubs for gold, along with London.
Yet Trump’s erratic policymaking and wider
geopolitical unrest are fuelling a public debate about the issue in parts of
Europe. The US president said earlier this month he may have to “force
something” if the US central bank did not lower borrowing costs.
In Germany, the idea of repatriating gold
is attracting support from both ends of the political spectrum.
Peter Gauweiler, a prominent former
conservative MP from Bavaria’s Christian Social Union, stressed that the
Bundesbank “must not take any shortcuts” when it came to safeguarding the
country’s gold reserves.
“We need to address the question if
storing the gold abroad has become more secure and stable over the past decade
or not,” Gauweiler told the FT, adding that “the answer to this is
self-evident” as geopolitical risk had made the world more insecure.
The Taxpayers Association of Europe has
sent letters to the finance ministries and central banks of both Germany and
Italy, urging policymakers to reconsider their reliance on the Fed as a
custodian for their gold.
“We are very concerned about Trump
tampering with the Federal Reserve Bank’s independence,” Michael Jäger, the
TAE’s president, told the FT.
“Our recommendation is to bring the
[German and Italian] gold home to ensure European central banks have unlimited
control over it at any given point in time.
Ahead of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia
Meloni’s trip to Washington to meet Trump in April, economic commentator Enrico
Grazzini wrote in the newspaper Il Fatto Quotidiano: “Leaving 43 per cent of
Italy’s gold reserves in America under the unreliable Trump administration is
very dangerous for the national interest.”
More
Germany and Italy
pressed to bring $245bn of gold home from US
In other news, how Iran could, but hopefully won’t now need to, close the Strait of Hormuz. Approx. 13 minutes.
How Iran Can Close The Straits Of Hormuz
How Iran Can Close The Straits Of Hormuz - YouTube
Shipping groups avoid the Strait of Hormuz to
reduce exposure after U.S. strikes on Iran
Published Mon, Jun 23 2025 7:33 AM EDT
The number of vessels navigating the
critically important Strait of Hormuz appears to
be declining, according to the world’s largest shipping association, amid
deepening fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East.
Jakob Larsen, head of security at Bimco,
which represents global shipowners, said all shipowners were closely monitoring
developments in the region and some have already paused transits in the Strait
of Hormuz due to the deterioration of the security situation.
His comments come shortly after the U.S.
on Saturday attacked three major
Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities, a massive escalation in its involvement
with Israel’s effort to cripple Tehran’s nuclear program.
Iran has condemned the attack,
saying it reserves all options to defend its sovereignty and people.
“Before the US attack, the impact on
shipping patterns was limited,” Bimco’s Larsen said.
“Now, after the US attack, we have
indications that the number of ships passing is reducing. If we begin to see
Iranian attacks on shipping, it will most likely further reduce the number of
ships transiting through the [Strait of Hormuz],” he added.
The Strait of Hormuz, which connects the
Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, is recognized as one of the world’s most
important oil chokepoints.
In 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, for
instance, flows through the narrow waterway made up roughly 20% of global oil
and petroleum product consumption, according to the U.S. Energy Information
Administration.
Around 20% of global liquified natural gas (LNG) also transited through the
Strait of Hormuz last year, primarily from Qatar.
The inability of oil to traverse through
the waterway, even temporarily, can ratchet up global energy prices, raise
shipping costs and create significant supply delays.
---- Standby mode
Andy Critchlow, EMEA head of news at
S&P Global Commodity Insights, said some anecdotal evidence suggested a
slowdown in shipping navigation through the Strait of Hormuz following the U.S.
strikes on Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan.
“The pace at which tankers are entering
the Strait of Hormuz has definitely slowed. We have indications from shippers
that they are putting tankers and vessels on standby, so they are waiting for
an opportune moment to enter the Strait,” Critchlow told CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” on Monday.
“At the same time, there have been reports
that suppliers of LNG, for example, in the Gulf have told lifters of LNG to
wait before entering, so [as] not to loiter in the Gulf, keep vessels out of
that region,” he added.
Japan’s Nippon Yusen, one of the
world’s largest ship operators, recently introduced a standby to enter the
Strait of Hormuz to limit the length of its stay in the Persian Gulf, according
to S&P Global Commodity Insights, citing a company spokesperson.
More
U.S.-Iran crisis:
Shipping groups seen avoiding the Strait of Hormuz
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Tariffs on household
goods bring home costs of Trump’s trade wars
Heavy new
levies on washing machines, fridges and ovens from Monday could worsen
inflation
Published Jun
23 2025
Donald Trump’s
trade war will hit common US household goods from Monday when US steel tariffs
begin to apply to washing machines, fridges and ovens, threatening to push up
prices for American consumers.
The new tariffs
are in addition to the Trump administration’s existing 50 per cent tariffs on
imports of steel and some steel items, and will apply to the steel content of
the goods, according to the commerce department.
The new tariffs
will apply to imports of items including dishwashers, food waste disposal
units, fridge freezers, tumble dryers and washing machines, as well as stoves
and ovens.
Trump
introduced tariffs of 25 per cent on steel and aluminium just weeks after
returning to the White House, before doubling the levies to 50 per cent this
month.
The metals
tariffs are part of a broader suite of duties applied to specific sectors on
national security grounds as Trump aims to boost US domestic manufacturing
across several critical industries.
Imports of cars
and car parts have been hit by tariffs of 25 per cent under the same national
security authority. The administration has also launched national security
probes — which could lead to tariffs — into trade on chips and chipmaking
equipment, lumber, critical minerals and pharmaceuticals.
The expanded
levies on household goods could drive up inflation in the coming months.
“The May CPI
was a reminder that if it weren’t for the tariff episode, particularly in the
United States, the Fed would be much more on their front foot right now and
looking to cut rates now, not waiting,” said Robert Kaplan, vice chair of
Goldman Sachs and former head of the Dallas Fed.
Daniel Hornung,
an MIT academic who worked as an economist in the Biden administration, said
the less than expected rise in inflation in May was “largely the result of
slowing or price declines in areas that don’t have substantial near-term tariff
exposure, like rent and airfares”.
He said
stockpiling of inventories by importers ahead of tariffs going into effect
might delay the impact on consumers. But major appliances that rely on goods
such as steel that are subject to high tariffs, “are likely seeing initial
tariff-related price increases that are only set to grow in the months ahead.”
An earlier 2018 tariff of up to 50 per cent on
foreign-manufactured washing machines drove up consumer prices by an average of
$86, or 12 per cent, per item, according to research by economists at the
University of Chicago and the US Federal Reserve.
The research
also showed those tariffs, imposed by Trump in his first term, led to a similar
rise in the price of clothes dryers, even though these were not subject to the
levies.
The latest
levies come into force less than three weeks before Trump’s so-called
“reciprocal” tariffs on almost all US trading partners, which were unveiled on
April 2 but later paused for 90 days, are scheduled to snap back into effect.
More
Tariffs
on household goods bring home costs of Trump’s trade wars
How Israel-Iran
conflict can hike global food, fuel and household item prices
23 June 2025
Dubai: As tensions escalate between Israel and Iran—now with direct US
involvement—economists warn that ripple effects could soon show up in everyday
spending worldwide. From groceries to utility bills, the cost of household essentials
could inch higher in the weeks ahead.
While this doesn’t guarantee a price surge everywhere, the risks are
rising. And for countries closely linked to global oil flows—like those in Asia
and the Middle East—the stakes are especially high.
Why it matters:
Oil affects everything
At the centre of the global concern is oil. And not just because it's
what fuels cars or airplanes. Oil is embedded in the production, packaging, and
transportation of nearly every product we consume—from food and clothes to
electronics and medicine.
When oil prices rise, those extra costs tend to travel through the supply
chain, ending up in supermarket aisles and monthly electricity bills.
Currently, the Strait of
Hormuz—a narrow waterway through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil passes—is
in the spotlight. Iran has signaled a potential move to block or restrict
shipping through this critical chokepoint. If it follows through, energy analysts say it
would trigger an immediate supply shock.
What happens if
oil hits $100 again?
Oil prices are already climbing, and analysts believe a blockade or
military escalation could push crude well above $100 per barrel.
“Inflation could increase by about 0.4 to 0.5 percentage points if Brent
rises to $90, and by as much as 1.3 points if it hits $140,” said analysts at
ABN AMRO Economics Bureau. While oil prices aren’t as restrictive as they used
to be, “this kind of shock would certainly raise petrol prices and inflation
expectations globally.”
This, in turn, could have far-reaching effects. Countries that rely
heavily on imported fuel—like India, Indonesia, and much of Southeast Asia—may
face delays and higher shipping costs for basic goods, leading to higher prices
for consumers.
Strait of Hormuz: UAE,
Gulf shippers, businesses start thinking options
----Global inflation pressure on GCC
This isn’t the first time geopolitical tensions have rocked the oil
market. Past conflicts caused oil prices to spike temporarily. But the current
situation is different in scale and severity.
“This is not a proxy battle involving militias. It’s a direct military
strike between sovereign nations,” analysts say. “And one of them controls the
world’s most important oil corridor.”
Even without a full
shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, the mere threat of it keeps oil markets
jittery—and that’s enough to push prices up.
More
How Israel-Iran conflict can hike global food,
fuel and household item prices
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Gulf states
tap cheap Chinese batteries to power renewable ambitions
Storage
systems are seen as crucial to integrating solar and wind into electrical grids
Published Jun 18 2025
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab
Emirates are taking advantage of falling prices to load up on Chinese-made
battery energy storage systems, so they can boost their renewable energy
ambitions.
Battery storage systems are seen as
crucial to integrating solar and wind energy into electrical grids. The systems
soak up excess power that can be released back into the system when renewable
energy is not available — for example at night — and are one of the
fastest-growing uses for batteries.
Oil-rich Saudi Arabia and the UAE had
been slower to develop renewables than many countries that have to import
energy. Saudi Arabia still burns oil to generate electricity, which accounted
for just under half its power-generating capacity in 2023, according to
BloombergNEF. The International Energy Agency’s latest data shows that the
Middle East region accounts for 13 per cent of the world’s fossil fuel
investments, but contributes just 2 per cent of those in clean energy.
However, the two Gulf nations have
stepped up construction of solar power plants in recent years, eyeing an
opportunity to export more fossil fuels and ease their reliance on imported
gas. Riyadh has set itself an ambitious target of 50 per cent of energy use to
come from renewables by 2030, while the UAE is aiming for a more modest 44 per
cent from clean energy by 2050. Both will require battery energy storage
to support their renewables targets, experts say.
Rystad Energy expects Saudi Arabia’s
battery energy storage capacity to surpass 11 gigawatt hours (GWh) by the end
of the year, from zero at the start of 2024. According to the consultancy,
Saudi Arabia plans to have the world’s fifth-largest utility-scale battery
storage capacity, after China, the US, Australia and the UK.
Meanwhile, the UAE has launched a
“gigascale” solar and battery project in Abu Dhabi, which is planned to provide
baseload energy 24 hours a day. The plant will have a 19GWh battery storage
system, and is a partnership between utility Emirates Water and Electricity
Company and renewables group Masdar. Abdulaziz Alobaidli, Masdar’s chief
operating officer, says it is the company’s “largest and most ambitious project
to date”.
The latest advances in Chinese battery
technology have made the systems better suited for deployment in the Gulf’s
harsh conditions, experts say, with the batteries now housed in containers that
can be cooled and protected from dust.
More
Gulf states tap cheap Chinese batteries to power renewable ambitions
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
I
helped make Mexico, especially Tampico, safe for American oil interests in
1914. I helped make Haiti and Cuba a decent place for the National City Bank
boys to collect revenues in. I helped in the raping of half a dozen Central
American republics for the benefits of Wall Street. The record of racketeering
is long. I helped purify Nicaragua for the international banking house of Brown
Brothers in 1909-1912. I brought light to the Dominican Republic for American
sugar interests in 1916. In China I helped to see to it that Standard Oil went
its way unmolested.
US
General Smedley Butler
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