Tuesday, 3 June 2025

Is 2025 1929? Stocks Delusional. All News Is Good News Again!

Baltic Dry Index. 1422 +04             Brent Crude 64.83

Spot Gold 3362                   US 2 Year Yield 3.94 +0.05  

US Federal Debt. 36.930 trillion  US GDP 30.047 trillion.

Impulsiveness is not a trait one would choose for a person with the power to launch the U.S. nuclear arsenal.

Donald Trump

In the stock casinos, we are back to all news is good news again! But in a tariff war reality, nearly all news is actually bad news.

A Great Comeuppance now lies ahead for the stock casinos, unless trade war Washington wakes up to reality.

Look away from that rapidly growing daily gap between US Federal Debt and US GDP now.

Asia-Pacific markets mostly rise as investors assess dismal China factory activity

Updated Tue, Jun 3 2025 12:22 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose Tuesday after China’s manufacturing activity in May shrank at the fastest pace since September 2022, a private survey showed.

The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came in at 48.3, missing Reuters’ median estimate of 50.6 and dropping sharply from 50.4 in April, as a sharper decline in new export orders highlighted the impact of prohibitive U.S. tariffs.

China on Monday pushed back against the U.S.′ accusations that it had violated a temporary trade agreement. Instead, the Asian powerhouse blamed Washington for failing to uphold the deal — a sign that negotiations between the world’s two largest economies are deteriorating.

Meanwhile, the European Union criticized U.S. President Donald Trump’s intention to double steel tariffs to 50%, saying that such a move “undermines” its own negotiations with the U.S. An EU spokesperson said that the bloc was “prepared to impose countermeasures.”

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index led gains in the Asia-Pacific region and rose 1.15% while Mainland China’s CSI 300 added 0.48%.

China’s Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came in at 48.3, from 50.4 in April, and missing Reuters’ median estimate of 50.6. It fell below 50, the mark that separates growth from contraction, for the first time since last September.

Over in Japan, the Nikkei 225 benchmark pared gains to 0.29%, while the broader Topix index was flat in choppy trade.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 benchmark advanced 0.53%, after briefly hitting a near four-month high earlier in the session.

The country’s seasonally adjusted current account balance for the first quarter of 2025 came in at a deficit of 14.7 billion Australian dollars ($9.53 billion), exceeding the AU$13.1 billion deficit forecast by economists polled by Reuters, but an improvement from the AU$16.3 billion deficit in the previous quarter’s revised reading.

Meanwhile, India’s benchmark Nifty 50 fell 0.37% in early trade while the BSE Sensex inched down 0.13%.

South Korean markets were closed for polling day.

U.S. futures fell even as the major averages on Wall Street began June’s trading on a positive note.

Overnight stateside, the S&P 500 climbed 0.41% to close at 5,935.94, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.67% and ended at 19,242.61. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 35.41 points, or 0.08%, settling at 42,305.48.

Asia markets live updates for June 3, 2025

Stock futures slip after S&P 500 kicks off June with a modest gain: Live updates

Updated Tue, Jun 3 2025 12:07 AM EDT

Stock futures slipped on Tuesday morning after the major averages began June’s trading on a positive note.

S&P 500 futures slipped 0.39%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 159 points, or 0.38%. Futures linked to the Nasdaq 100 ticked down 0.37%.

In the regular session, the S&P 500 climbed 0.41%. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.67%, and the Dow added 35.41 points, or 0.08%.

Stocks ended the day higher despite rising tensions between China and the U.S., with Beijing countering President Donald Trump’s accusations that it had violated a temporary trade agreement. Investors had grown hopeful that the two countries could work out a trade deal, but this latest development points to negotiations taking a turn for the worse.

Meanwhile, the European Union criticized Trump’s intention to double steel tariffs to 50%, saying that such a move “undermines” its own negotiations with the U.S. An EU spokesperson said that the bloc was “prepared to impose countermeasures.”

But despite volatility continuing to persist at elevated levels, Jeff deGraaf, head of technical research at Renaissance Macro, is optimistic on the stock market’s short-term prospects.

“The next six weeks are some of the best six-week periods, historically, really rivaling only what we see in the fourth quarter,” he said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell.” “So this is not a time to lighten up on positions, just from the calendar’s perspective.”

Dollar GeneralSignet Jewelers and Nio are set to report earnings Tuesday before the bell. That morning, traders will also watch out for readings on April’s jobs openings, as well as durable goods and factory orders.

Stock market today: Live updates

Wall Street Strategists Warn S&P 500’s Momentum Could Unravel Under Stagflation Pressure, Tariff Concerns

June 2, 2025

JPMorgan and RBC Capital Markets raised red flags on Monday over the S&P 500’s recent rally, citing that inflation risks, weak growth, and unresolved trade tensions could weigh on markets in the months ahead.

The S&P 500 climbed 6.2% in May, its best month since November 2023, while the Nasdaq Composite surged 9.6%. 

Gains were fueled by optimism around U.S.-China trade talks, political momentum behind President Donald Trump’s tax proposal, and hopes that rate cuts could begin as soon as September.

However, JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka said the rally may be short-lived if concerns about stagflation take hold. “Post the bounce, we shift softer leg is in store next, which could resemble a bit of a stagflationary episode,” he wrote in a note cited by Bloomberg. 

He also pointed to worsening trade frictions, saying that the “current tariffs picture is worse than most thought at the start of the year.”

RBC Capital Markets revised its year-end 2025 S&P 500 target to 5,730 from 5,550 but warned that the index is still likely to decline from current levels. “We expect the path of stocks to be choppy through year-end,” the analysts wrote in a note cited by Investing.com, highlighting downside risks and a wide forecast range.

RBC’s models include inflation in the upper 2% range, three Fed rate cuts beginning in September, and 1.3% real GDP growth. However, the brokerage noted that rising 10-year yields or disappointing data could quickly shift sentiment.

The RBC analysts also flagged waning interest from foreign investors. “Tariffs opened a door–an openness to investing in other geographies–that had been closed for quite some time,” they noted.

RBC described its stance as “rather neutral,” emphasizing that “current pricing in the S&P 500 already reflects the step-up improvement in macro fundamentals.” 

However, with investor sentiment showing signs of exhaustion and policy risks still in play, the brokerage sees increased potential for a market pullback before year-end.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was down 0.38% in pre-market trade on Monday after breaking even for the year on Friday. Over the past 12 months, SPY’s stock has gained more than 12%

Wall Street Strategists Warn S&P 500’s Momentum Could Unravel Under Stagflation Pressure, Tariff Concerns

Trump’s Trade Fight Now a War on Three Fronts

June 2, 2025 at 11:06 PM GMT+1

The European Union is preparing for another round of trade talks with the US, but it’s also warning that it may speed up retaliatory measures if President Donald Trump follows through on his latest threat: a 50% levy on steel and aluminum imports. The European Commission, which handles trade matters for the EU, said Monday it “strongly” regrets the tariff hike—up from an originally planned 25%—and said the move is undermining efforts to reach a solution to the trade conflict. The EU’s trade chief, Maros Sefcovic, is to meet with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on Wednesday in Paris and a team from the commission is on its way to Washington to continue technical talks.

The message from Europe comes as Trump faces fresh headwinds on two other fronts of his trade war. After the US and China agreed to lower tariffs from astronomical heights—a temporary deal that largely satisfied Beijing’s demands—tensions are now surging over access to chips and rare earths. And Beijing increasingly appears to have the upper hand. Meanwhile back home, the legality of most of the Republican’s tariffs has been called into question by federal judges for violating not only the law on which they were ostensibly based, but a Supreme Court doctrine that deems such monumental moves the province of Congress.  David E. Rovella

Trump’s Trade Fight Is Now a War on Three Fronts: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg

In other news, ABUSA, anywhere but USA.

Safer to stay home? European firms rethink travel policy over U.S. border control concerns

Published Sat, May 31 2025 9:11 PM EDT

Some European companies are growing wary about sending their employees to the U.S.

It comes amid volatile policymaking by the Trump administration, more stringent immigration checks, and an uptick in reports of detentions and deportations.

Some businesses CNBC spoke to, in areas including engineering and accounting, stressed that their work trips to the U.S. continued unabated. But others, usually in more politically sensitive fields, flagged employee welfare concerns.

Their responses ranged from issuing new travel guidance — such as advising workers to bring wiped electronic devices or entering the U.S. via Canada — to encouraging attendance at U.S. events or conferences online where possible.

Business travel is a significant revenue source for the U.S. economy. According to a report published by the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) last year, total spend in the sector generated a total $421 billion and $119 billion in tax revenue in 2022, the most recent year in which full data was available. That came from an estimated 429.9 million business trips supporting 6 million jobs.

Business travel is also a key revenue-maker for the aviation industry, generating between 50% and 75% of profit for airlines in many cases.

In a survey of 900 global travel buyers conducted by GBTA in April, 29% said they expected a decline in business travel volume at their companies in 2025 as a result of U.S. policy across both travel and tariffs. The survey also found a decline in overall optimism in the sector.

Any chilling effect would also come with international tourism expected to be dented this year, costing $12.5 billion in spending, due to negative perceptions of trade and immigration policy.

Rising anxiety over U.S. travel

Border control and foreign visas have been highly charged issues since President Donald Trump took office in January, with reports of tourists being held in detention centres for long periods. The White House pledged in January that all foreigners seeking to enter the U.S. would be “vetted and screened to the maximum degree possible.”

---- “We’re hearing some international travellers have expressed unease about visiting the U.S. due to increased visa scrutiny, social media monitoring, and incidents of detention or deportation despite valid documents,” said Prashray Kala, a partner at management consultancy Everest Group.

“Those with a visible online footprint are more cautious, especially with the ‘Catch and Revoke’ policy enhancing surveillance,” Kala said.

Announced April 30, this policy means that anyone with a U.S. visa will lose their immigration status after one strike for any violation of U.S. law, regardless of severity.

One European fund manager who frequently travels to the U.S. for business said he was concerned immigration authorities at airports could hinder his travel plans due to a change in political attitude, rather than policy.

“Business travel on an ESTA [visa] is no longer what it used to be”, the fund manager said.

More

European firms rethink travel policy over U.S. border control concerns

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Trump plunges the US economy into chaos and uncertainty

The erratic trade policy and the worsening fiscal crisis are dragging down economic growth and increasing the risk of a recession

Washington - JUN 02, 2025 - 10:25 WEST

The word “recession” resurfaced last week in the minutes of the Federal Reserve. Economists at the U.S. central bank assign an equal probability to a full-blown economic crisis this year as to their baseline scenario, which is low growth. In just four months, U.S. President Donald Trump has plunged the world’s largest economy into chaos, confusion, and uncertainty with his erratic trade policy and aggressive budget agenda, putting the entire world on edge. The danger is not only recession but also fiscal and even financial crisis, as tensions in the bond and currency markets have made clear.

The slowdown in U.S. growth, the trade war, and financial instability will take a toll on the global economy, although the risk of a global recession has eased somewhat due to Trump’s policy reversals. Economists are calculating which countries will be most affected, but the situation is constantly changing and the outcome remains uncertain.

The U.S. economy has shown tremendous resilience in recent years, but the president is relentlessly testing it. His trade policy caused the gross domestic product (GDP), which had been experiencing strong growth, to contract in the first quarter for the first time in two years — even before most of the tariffs took effect.

His declaration of a trade war on the entire world on April 2, which he dubbed “Liberation Day,” nearly triggered a financial crisis. Trump backed down after witnessing the drop in the dollar and Treasury bonds and partially reversed course, but without abandoning his protectionist rhetoric.

----Trump threatened the European Union with 50% tariffs last Friday, only to back down on Sunday in exchange only for a promise to continue negotiations. Every step forward by Trump has led to chaos in the markets and worsened the economic outlook, while every step back has been celebrated by economists and investors. This dynamic has popularized the TACO strategy on Wall Street, which consists of investing on the premise that, when it comes to tariffs, Trump Always Chickens Out.

On Wednesday, hours after Trump said it was “wrong” to be questioned about the issue, the Court of International Trade — the federal court specializing in the matter — ruled most of the tariffs approved by the president illegal and struck them down, undermining his strategy of using them as a pressure tactic. The following day, the Washington Court of Appeals suspended the enforcement of that ruling while it reviews the case over the next two weeks, meaning the tariffs are still in place for now.

“The courts are playing an increasingly important role in the tariff dispute, increasing the confusion and prolonging the uncertainty that continues to roil financial markets,” says Bob Schwartz, an economist at Oxford Economics. “The legal battle is just beginning, and the fog of uncertainty will continue to cover the economic landscape for the foreseeable future.”

More

Trump plunges the US economy into chaos and uncertainty | Economy and Business | EL PAÍS English

German minister: Services must be considered in tariff row with US

1 June 2025

The European Union wants to include services in the tariff dispute with the United States to persuade US President Donald Trump to relent, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said on Sunday.

"We want to focus not only on the exchange of goods and products but also on services. And if you look at the whole spectrum, then the exchange between the United States of America and the European Union is quite balanced," Wadephul explained on German public broadcaster ZDF. "And if you take that into account, I believe we have good conditions to reach a reasonable conclusion."

The chairman of the Trade Committee in the European Parliament, Bernd Lange, had also hinted at this. The EU has a trade deficit with the US in services, Lange pointed out. This is mainly due to the high demand in Europe for the offerings of US digital companies like Google and Meta.

Trump justifies his tariff policy by stating that the US has a trade deficit in goods with the EU. Trump recently also announced a doubling of tariffs on aluminium and steel imports to 50%.

A spokesman for the European Commission threatened countermeasures over the weekend.

German minister: Services must be considered in tariff row with US

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

COVID-19 Update: 28 Dead, Active Cases Near 4,000 In India As Deadly Variants NB.1.8.1 & LF.7 Drive New Wave

2 June 2025

India is witnessing a renewed rise in COVID-19 infections, with active cases nearing the 4,000 mark. According to data released by the Union Health Ministry on Monday, June 2, the number of active cases rose to 3,961, up from 3,758 the previous day.

Experts have attributed this uptick to the fast-spreading NB.1.8.1 and LF.7 variants currently circulating across several states.

States On Alert as Infections Spike

As per the data, West Bengal saw the sharpest rise, adding 82 new infections within 24 hours. Delhi recorded 47 fresh cases, pushing its active tally to 436, while Gujarat crossed the 300 mark. Kerala remains the worst-hit, with over 1,400 active cases. Maharashtra follows with 485 infections and seven reported deaths to date.

Kerala and Karnataka also confirmed two additional fatalities over the weekend, raising India’s death toll since January 2025 to 28.

Health officials are advising high-risk groups, particularly the elderly and unvaccinated with pre-existing conditions, to exercise extra caution. “We are closely monitoring the variants NB.1.8.1 and LF.7. There is no need for panic, but we do urge people to avoid crowded spaces if they’re symptomatic," a senior official told The Indian Express.

More

COVID-19 Update: 28 Dead, Active Cases Near 4,000 In India As Deadly Variants NB.1.8.1 & LF.7 Drive New Wave

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Graphene Is Stretchable? Physicists Make “Miracle Material” Bend Like Never Before

By University of Vienna June 1, 2025

Graphene is often called a “miracle material” because it is both mechanically extremely strong and highly conductive, making it ideal for many technological applications. Physicists at the University of Vienna, led by Jani Kotakoski, have now made a breakthrough: by rippling graphene like an accordion, they significantly increased its stretchability for the first time.

This innovation opens the door to new possibilities where flexibility is essential, such as in wearable electronics. In collaboration with the Vienna University of Technology, the team uncovered the precise mechanism behind this effect, and their findings were published in Physical Review Letters.

The unique properties of 2D materials

Graphene was first experimentally confirmed in 2004, marking the discovery of an entirely new class of materials known as two-dimensional (2D) solids. These materials are just a single layer of atoms thick, which gives them unusual and valuable properties. Graphene, for instance, is known for its exceptional electrical conductivity but is also extremely stiff. This stiffness comes from its honeycomb-like atomic structure.

While it might seem logical that removing atoms and their bonds would make the material softer, previous studies have produced conflicting results—some showing a slight decrease in stiffness, others a significant increase.

These contradictions have now been clarified through new measurements conducted by researchers of the group led by Jani Kotakoski at the University of Vienna. The experiments were carried out with state-of-the-art devices all sharing the same ultra-clean airless environment. This allows transporting samples between the different devices without ever being exposed to ambient air.

“This unique system we have developed in the University of Vienna allows us to examine 2D materials without interference,” explains Jani Kotakoski. Wael Joudi, first author of the study adds: “For the first time, this kind of experiment has been carried out with the graphene fully isolated from ambient air and the foreign particles it contains. Without this separation, these particles would quickly settle on the surface, affecting the experiment procedure and measurements.”

Discovery of the accordion effect

In fact, the focus on meticulous cleanliness of the material surface led to the discovery of the so-called accordion effect with regard to the stiffness of graphene: already the removal of two neighboring atoms leads to discernible bulging of the initially flat material.

Several bulges together result in a corrugation of the material: “You can imagine it like an accordion. When pulled apart, the waved material now gets flattened, which requires much less force than stretching the flat material and therefore it becomes more stretchable,” explains Wael Joudi. Simulations carried out by the theoretical physicists Rika Saskia Windisch and Florian Libisch from the Vienna University of Technology confirm both the formation of waves and the resulting stretchability.

The experiments also showed that foreign particles on the material surface not only suppress this effect, but lead to the opposite result. Specifically, their influence makes the material appear stiffer, which also explains contradictions of the past. “This shows the importance of the measurement environment when dealing with 2D materials. The results open up a way to regulate the stiffness of graphene and thus pave the way for potential applications,” concludes Wael Joudi.

Reference: “Corrugation-Dominated Mechanical Softening of Defect-Engineered Graphene” by Wael Joudi, Rika Saskia Windisch, Alberto Trentino, Diana Propst, Jacob Madsen, Toma Susi, Clemens Mangler, Kimmo Mustonen, Florian Libisch and Jani Kotakoski, 25 April 2025, Physical Review Letters.
DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.134.166102

Graphene Is Stretchable? Physicists Make “Miracle Material” Bend Like Never Before

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

It's a beautiful city, and the waterfront area is fantastic. I haven't had time to visit the theatre, but I find it remarkable that Toronto has the third-largest English-speaking theatre district in the world, after New York and London. I once noticed a fellow sitting on a bench, then I realized it was a statue of Glenn Gould. It's very realistic.

Donald Trump

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