Baltic
Dry Index. 1422 +04 Brent
Crude 64.83
Spot Gold 3362 US 2 Year Yield 3.94 +0.05
US Federal Debt. 36.930 trillion US GDP 30.047 trillion.
Impulsiveness is not a trait one would choose for a person with the power to launch the U.S. nuclear arsenal.
Donald Trump
In the stock casinos, we are back to all news is good news again! But in a tariff war reality, nearly all news is actually bad news.
A Great Comeuppance now lies ahead for the stock casinos, unless trade war Washington wakes up to reality.
Look away from that rapidly growing daily gap between US Federal Debt and US GDP now.
Asia-Pacific
markets mostly rise as investors assess dismal China factory activity
Updated
Tue, Jun 3 2025 12:22 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific
markets mostly rose Tuesday after China’s manufacturing activity in May shrank
at the fastest pace since September 2022, a private survey showed.
The
Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came in at 48.3,
missing Reuters’ median estimate of 50.6 and dropping sharply from 50.4 in
April, as a sharper decline in new export orders highlighted the impact of
prohibitive U.S. tariffs.
China
on Monday pushed back against the U.S.′ accusations that it had
violated a temporary trade agreement. Instead, the Asian powerhouse blamed
Washington for failing to uphold the deal — a sign that negotiations between
the world’s two largest economies are deteriorating.
Meanwhile,
the European Union criticized U.S. President Donald Trump’s intention to double
steel tariffs to 50%, saying that such a move “undermines” its own negotiations
with the U.S. An EU spokesperson said that the bloc was “prepared
to impose countermeasures.”
Hong
Kong’s Hang Seng Index led
gains in the Asia-Pacific region and rose 1.15% while Mainland China’s CSI 300 added 0.48%.
China’s
Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came in at 48.3,
from 50.4 in April, and missing Reuters’ median estimate of 50.6. It fell below
50, the mark that separates growth from contraction, for the first
time since last September.
Over in
Japan, the Nikkei 225 benchmark
pared gains to 0.29%, while the broader Topix index was flat in choppy trade.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 benchmark
advanced 0.53%, after briefly hitting a near
four-month high earlier in the session.
The
country’s seasonally adjusted current account balance for the first
quarter of 2025 came in at a deficit of 14.7 billion Australian
dollars ($9.53 billion), exceeding the AU$13.1 billion deficit forecast by
economists polled by Reuters, but an improvement from the AU$16.3 billion
deficit in the previous quarter’s revised reading.
Meanwhile,
India’s benchmark Nifty 50 fell
0.37% in early trade while the BSE Sensex inched down 0.13%.
South
Korean markets were closed for polling day.
U.S.
futures fell even as the major averages on Wall Street began June’s
trading on a positive note.
Overnight
stateside, the S&P 500 climbed
0.41% to close at 5,935.94, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced
0.67% and ended at 19,242.61. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added
35.41 points, or 0.08%, settling at 42,305.48.
Asia
markets live updates for June 3, 2025
Stock futures
slip after S&P 500 kicks off June with a modest gain: Live updates
Updated
Tue, Jun 3 2025 12:07 AM EDT
Stock
futures slipped on Tuesday morning after the major averages began June’s
trading on a positive note.
S&P 500 futures slipped
0.39%, and Dow Jones
Industrial Average futures lost 159 points, or 0.38%. Futures linked to the Nasdaq 100 ticked
down 0.37%.
In the
regular session, the S&P
500 climbed 0.41%. The Nasdaq Composite advanced
0.67%, and the Dow added
35.41 points, or 0.08%.
Stocks
ended the day higher despite rising tensions between China and the U.S., with
Beijing countering
President Donald Trump’s accusations that it had violated a temporary
trade agreement. Investors had grown hopeful that the two countries could work
out a trade deal, but this latest development points to negotiations taking a
turn for the worse.
Meanwhile,
the European Union criticized Trump’s intention to double steel tariffs to 50%,
saying that such a move “undermines” its own negotiations with the U.S. An EU
spokesperson said that the bloc was “prepared
to impose countermeasures.”
But
despite volatility continuing to persist at elevated levels, Jeff deGraaf, head
of technical research at Renaissance Macro, is optimistic on the stock market’s
short-term prospects.
“The next
six weeks are some of the best six-week periods, historically, really rivaling
only what we see in the fourth quarter,” he said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell.” “So this is not a
time to lighten up on positions, just from the calendar’s perspective.”
Dollar General, Signet Jewelers and Nio are set to report earnings
Tuesday before the bell. That morning, traders will also watch out for readings
on April’s jobs openings, as well as durable goods and factory orders.
Stock market today: Live updates
Wall Street
Strategists Warn S&P 500’s Momentum Could Unravel Under Stagflation
Pressure, Tariff Concerns
June 2,
2025
JPMorgan
and RBC Capital Markets raised red flags on Monday over the S&P 500’s
recent rally, citing that inflation risks, weak growth, and unresolved
trade tensions could weigh on markets in the months ahead.
The
S&P 500 climbed 6.2% in May, its best month since November 2023, while the
Nasdaq Composite surged 9.6%.
Gains
were fueled by optimism around U.S.-China trade talks, political momentum
behind President Donald Trump’s tax proposal, and hopes that rate cuts could
begin as soon as September.
However,
JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka said the rally may be short-lived if
concerns about stagflation take hold. “Post the bounce, we shift softer leg is
in store next, which could resemble a bit of a stagflationary episode,” he
wrote in a note cited by Bloomberg.
He also
pointed to worsening trade frictions, saying that the “current tariffs picture
is worse than most thought at the start of the year.”
RBC
Capital Markets revised its year-end 2025 S&P 500 target to 5,730 from
5,550 but warned that the index is still likely to decline from current levels.
“We expect the path of stocks to be choppy through year-end,” the analysts
wrote in a note cited by Investing.com, highlighting downside risks and a
wide forecast range.
RBC’s
models include inflation in the upper 2% range, three Fed rate cuts beginning
in September, and 1.3% real GDP growth. However, the brokerage noted that
rising 10-year yields or disappointing data could quickly shift sentiment.
The RBC
analysts also flagged waning interest from foreign investors. “Tariffs opened a
door–an openness to investing in other geographies–that had been closed for
quite some time,” they noted.
RBC
described its stance as “rather neutral,” emphasizing that “current pricing in
the S&P 500 already reflects the step-up improvement in macro
fundamentals.”
However,
with investor sentiment showing signs of exhaustion and policy risks still in
play, the brokerage sees increased potential for a market pullback before
year-end.
The SPDR
S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was down 0.38% in pre-market trade on Monday after
breaking even for the year on Friday. Over the past 12 months, SPY’s stock
has gained more than 12%
Trump’s Trade
Fight Now a War on Three Fronts
June 2,
2025 at 11:06 PM GMT+1
The European
Union is preparing for another round of trade talks with the US, but it’s
also warning that it may speed up retaliatory measures if President Donald
Trump follows through on his latest threat: a 50%
levy on steel and aluminum imports. The European Commission, which
handles trade matters for the EU, said Monday it “strongly” regrets the tariff
hike—up from an originally planned 25%—and said the move is undermining efforts
to reach a solution to the trade conflict. The EU’s trade chief, Maros
Sefcovic, is to meet with US Trade Representative Jamieson
Greer on Wednesday in Paris and a team from the commission is on its way
to Washington to continue technical talks.
The
message from Europe comes as Trump faces fresh headwinds on two other fronts of
his trade war. After the US and China agreed to lower tariffs from astronomical
heights—a temporary deal that largely satisfied Beijing’s demands—tensions are
now surging over access to chips and rare earths. And Beijing increasingly
appears to have the upper hand. Meanwhile back home, the legality of most
of the Republican’s tariffs has been called into question by federal
judges for violating not only the law on which they were ostensibly based, but
a Supreme Court doctrine that deems such monumental moves the
province of Congress. —David
E. Rovella
Trump’s
Trade Fight Is Now a War on Three Fronts: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg
In other
news, ABUSA, anywhere but USA.
Safer to stay home? European firms rethink travel
policy over U.S. border control concerns
Published Sat, May 31 2025 9:11 PM EDT
Some European companies are growing wary
about sending their employees to the U.S.
It comes amid volatile policymaking by the
Trump administration, more stringent immigration checks, and an uptick in
reports of detentions and deportations.
Some businesses CNBC spoke to, in areas
including engineering and accounting, stressed that their work trips to the
U.S. continued unabated. But others, usually in more politically sensitive
fields, flagged employee welfare concerns.
Their responses ranged from issuing new
travel guidance — such as advising workers to bring wiped electronic devices or
entering the U.S. via Canada — to encouraging attendance at U.S. events or
conferences online where possible.
Business travel is a significant revenue
source for the U.S. economy. According to a report published by the Global
Business Travel Association (GBTA) last year, total spend in the sector
generated a total $421 billion and $119 billion in tax revenue in 2022, the
most recent year in which full data was available. That came from an estimated
429.9 million business trips supporting 6 million jobs.
Business travel is also a key
revenue-maker for the aviation industry, generating between 50% and 75% of
profit for airlines in many cases.
In a survey of 900
global travel buyers conducted by GBTA in April, 29% said they expected a
decline in business travel volume at their companies in 2025 as a result of
U.S. policy across both travel and tariffs. The survey also found a decline in
overall optimism in the sector.
Any chilling effect would also come
with international
tourism expected to be dented this year, costing $12.5 billion in spending, due
to negative perceptions of trade and immigration policy.
Rising anxiety over U.S. travel
Border control and foreign visas have been
highly charged issues since President Donald Trump took office in January, with
reports of tourists being held
in detention centres for long periods. The White House pledged
in January that
all foreigners seeking to enter the U.S. would be “vetted and screened to the
maximum degree possible.”
----
“We’re hearing some international travellers have expressed unease about
visiting the U.S. due to increased visa scrutiny, social media monitoring, and
incidents of detention or deportation despite valid documents,” said Prashray
Kala, a partner at management consultancy Everest Group.
“Those with a visible online footprint are
more cautious, especially with the ‘Catch and Revoke’ policy enhancing
surveillance,” Kala said.
Announced April 30, this policy means that
anyone with a U.S. visa will lose their immigration status after one strike for
any violation of U.S. law, regardless of severity.
One European fund manager who frequently
travels to the U.S. for business said he was concerned immigration authorities
at airports could hinder his travel plans due to a change in political
attitude, rather than policy.
“Business travel on an ESTA [visa] is no
longer what it used to be”, the fund manager said.
More
European firms
rethink travel policy over U.S. border control concerns
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Trump
plunges the US economy into chaos and uncertainty
The
erratic trade policy and the worsening fiscal crisis are dragging down economic
growth and increasing the risk of a recession
Washington
- JUN 02,
2025 - 10:25 WEST
The
word “recession” resurfaced last week in the minutes of the Federal Reserve.
Economists at the U.S. central bank assign an equal probability to a full-blown
economic crisis this year as to their baseline scenario, which is low growth.
In just four months, U.S. President Donald Trump has plunged the world’s
largest economy into chaos, confusion, and uncertainty with his erratic
trade policy and aggressive budget agenda, putting the entire world on
edge. The danger is not only recession but also fiscal and even financial
crisis, as tensions in the bond and currency markets have made clear.
The
slowdown in U.S. growth, the trade war, and financial instability will take a
toll on the global economy, although the risk of a global recession has eased
somewhat due to Trump’s policy reversals. Economists are calculating which
countries will be most affected, but the situation is constantly changing and
the outcome remains uncertain.
The
U.S. economy has shown tremendous resilience in recent years, but the president
is relentlessly testing it. His trade policy caused the gross domestic product
(GDP), which had been experiencing strong growth, to contract in the first
quarter for the first time in two years — even before most of the tariffs took
effect.
His
declaration of a trade war on the entire world on April 2, which he dubbed
“Liberation Day,” nearly triggered a financial crisis. Trump backed down after
witnessing the drop in the dollar and Treasury bonds and partially reversed
course, but without abandoning his protectionist rhetoric.
----Trump
threatened the European Union with
50% tariffs last Friday, only to back down on Sunday in exchange only
for a promise to continue negotiations. Every step forward by Trump has led to
chaos in the markets and worsened the economic outlook, while every
step back has been celebrated by economists and investors. This
dynamic has popularized the TACO strategy on Wall Street, which consists of
investing on the premise that, when it comes to tariffs, Trump Always Chickens
Out.
On
Wednesday, hours after Trump said it was “wrong” to be questioned about the
issue, the
Court of International Trade — the federal court specializing in the
matter — ruled most of the tariffs approved by the president illegal
and struck them down, undermining his strategy of using them as a pressure
tactic. The following day, the Washington Court of Appeals suspended the
enforcement of that ruling while it reviews the case over the next two weeks,
meaning the tariffs are still in place for now.
“The
courts are playing an increasingly important role in the tariff dispute,
increasing the confusion and prolonging the uncertainty that continues to roil
financial markets,” says Bob Schwartz, an economist at Oxford Economics. “The
legal battle is just beginning, and the fog of uncertainty will continue to
cover the economic landscape for the foreseeable future.”
More
Trump
plunges the US economy into chaos and uncertainty | Economy and Business | EL
PAÍS English
German
minister: Services must be considered in tariff row with US
1
June 2025
The
European Union wants to include services in the tariff dispute with the United
States to persuade US President Donald Trump to relent, German Foreign Minister
Johann Wadephul said on Sunday.
"We
want to focus not only on the exchange of goods and products but also on
services. And if you look at the whole spectrum, then the exchange between the
United States of America and the European Union is quite balanced,"
Wadephul explained on German public broadcaster ZDF. "And if you take that
into account, I believe we have good conditions to reach a reasonable
conclusion."
The
chairman of the Trade Committee in the European Parliament, Bernd Lange, had
also hinted at this. The EU has a trade deficit with the US in services, Lange
pointed out. This is mainly due to the high demand in Europe for the offerings
of US digital companies like Google and Meta.
Trump
justifies his tariff policy by stating that the US has a trade deficit in goods
with the EU. Trump recently also announced a doubling of tariffs on aluminium
and steel imports to 50%.
A
spokesman for the European Commission threatened countermeasures over the
weekend.
German minister: Services must be considered in tariff row with US
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
COVID-19 Update: 28 Dead, Active Cases Near 4,000 In India As Deadly
Variants NB.1.8.1 & LF.7 Drive New Wave
2 June 2025
India is witnessing a
renewed rise in COVID-19 infections, with active cases nearing the 4,000 mark.
According to data released by the Union Health Ministry on Monday, June 2, the
number of active cases rose to 3,961, up from 3,758 the previous day.
Experts have attributed
this uptick to the fast-spreading NB.1.8.1 and LF.7 variants currently
circulating across several states.
States On Alert as Infections Spike
As per the data, West
Bengal saw the sharpest rise, adding 82 new infections within 24 hours. Delhi
recorded 47 fresh cases, pushing its active tally to 436, while Gujarat crossed
the 300 mark. Kerala remains the worst-hit, with over 1,400 active cases. Maharashtra
follows with 485 infections and seven reported deaths to date.
Kerala and Karnataka also
confirmed two additional fatalities over the weekend, raising India’s death
toll since January 2025 to 28.
Health officials are
advising high-risk groups, particularly the elderly and unvaccinated with
pre-existing conditions, to exercise extra caution. “We are closely monitoring
the variants NB.1.8.1 and LF.7. There is no need for panic, but we do urge
people to avoid crowded spaces if they’re symptomatic," a senior official
told The Indian Express.
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Graphene Is Stretchable?
Physicists Make “Miracle Material” Bend Like Never Before
By University
of Vienna June 1, 2025
Graphene
is often called a “miracle material” because it is both mechanically extremely
strong and highly conductive, making it ideal for many technological
applications. Physicists at the University of Vienna, led by Jani Kotakoski,
have now made a breakthrough: by rippling graphene like an accordion, they
significantly increased its stretchability for the first time.
This
innovation opens the door to new possibilities where flexibility is essential,
such as in wearable electronics. In collaboration with the Vienna University of
Technology, the team uncovered the precise mechanism behind this effect, and
their findings were published in Physical Review Letters.
The
unique properties of 2D materials
Graphene
was first experimentally confirmed in 2004, marking the discovery of an
entirely new class of materials known as two-dimensional (2D) solids. These
materials are just a single layer of atoms thick, which gives them unusual and
valuable properties. Graphene, for instance, is known for its exceptional
electrical conductivity but is also extremely stiff. This stiffness comes from
its honeycomb-like atomic structure.
While
it might seem logical that removing atoms and their bonds would make the
material softer, previous studies have produced conflicting results—some
showing a slight decrease in stiffness, others a significant increase.
These
contradictions have now been clarified through new measurements conducted by
researchers of the group led by Jani Kotakoski at the University of Vienna. The
experiments were carried out with state-of-the-art devices all sharing the same
ultra-clean airless environment. This allows transporting samples between the
different devices without ever being exposed to ambient air.
“This
unique system we have developed in the University of Vienna allows us to
examine 2D materials without interference,” explains Jani Kotakoski. Wael
Joudi, first author of the study adds: “For the first time, this kind of
experiment has been carried out with the graphene fully isolated from ambient
air and the foreign particles it contains. Without this separation, these
particles would quickly settle on the surface, affecting the experiment
procedure and measurements.”
Discovery
of the accordion effect
In
fact, the focus on meticulous cleanliness of the material surface led to the
discovery of the so-called accordion effect with regard to the stiffness of
graphene: already the removal of two neighboring atoms leads to discernible
bulging of the initially flat material.
Several
bulges together result in a corrugation of the material: “You can imagine it
like an accordion. When pulled apart, the waved material now gets flattened,
which requires much less force than stretching the flat material and therefore
it becomes more stretchable,” explains Wael Joudi. Simulations carried out by
the theoretical physicists Rika Saskia Windisch and Florian Libisch from the
Vienna University of Technology confirm both the formation of waves and the
resulting stretchability.
The
experiments also showed that foreign particles on the material surface not only
suppress this effect, but lead to the opposite result. Specifically, their
influence makes the material appear stiffer, which also explains contradictions
of the past. “This shows the importance of the measurement environment when
dealing with 2D materials. The results open up a way to regulate the stiffness
of graphene and thus pave the way for potential applications,” concludes Wael
Joudi.
Reference:
“Corrugation-Dominated Mechanical Softening of Defect-Engineered Graphene” by
Wael Joudi, Rika Saskia Windisch, Alberto Trentino, Diana Propst, Jacob Madsen,
Toma Susi, Clemens Mangler, Kimmo Mustonen, Florian Libisch and Jani Kotakoski,
25 April 2025, Physical Review Letters.
DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.134.166102
Graphene Is
Stretchable? Physicists Make “Miracle Material” Bend Like Never Before
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
It's a
beautiful city, and the waterfront area is fantastic. I haven't had time to
visit the theatre, but I find it remarkable that Toronto has the third-largest
English-speaking theatre district in the world, after New York and London. I
once noticed a fellow sitting on a bench, then I realized it was a statue of
Glenn Gould. It's very realistic.
Donald Trump
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