Friday, 29 November 2024

Was That It? What If? Did China, Europe And the USA Just Peak Out?

Baltic Dry Index. 1419 -90          Brent Crude  73.30

Spot Gold 2664                US 2 Year Yield 4.19  Wed.

Chairman Powell laughed. “There’s no use trying,” he said: “one can’t believe impossible things.”
“I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said the Donald. “When I was your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.”

With apologies to Lewis Carroll and Alice.

In the stock casinos, more wobble. Is this the top, or nearly the top?

What if the Democrats, Hollywood and Silicon Valley go  all out to try to undermine Trump 2.0?

What if a far left UK socialist government takes GB back to the 1970s?

What if France becomes ungovernable?

What of the global auto industry has peaked out and is entering a decade long decline?

South Korea stocks lead declines in Asia as its industrial production contracts in October; China up 2%

Updated Fri, Nov 29 2024 1:04 AM EST

Asia-Pacific markets mostly lost ground on Friday, led by losses in South Korean stocks after its industrial production declined for a second straight month in October.

South Korea’s industrial production growth fell 0.3% last month compared to September, which also saw a 0.3% fall on a month-on-month basis.

Industrial production saw a 2.3% increase year on year in October, marking a reversal from the 1.3% fall in September.

The country’s benchmark index, Kospi, fell 1.29% while the small-cap Kosdaq dropped 1.87%.

In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index bucked the trend and gained 1.29%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 was 2% up, leading gains in Asia.

The moves come as a Reuters poll said China’s home prices are expected to fall at a slower pace this year and next, and stabilize in 2026, as support measures are starting to take effect.

Separately, investors also assessed November inflation numbers from Japan’s capital of Tokyo, which saw its headline inflation rate come in at 2.6%, a rebound from the 1.8% seen in October.

Core inflation, which excludes costs of fresh food, rose to 2.2% compared with Reuters poll expectations of 2.1%.

Tokyo’s inflation numbers are widely considered to be a leading indicator of nationwide trends.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.42% after the inflation data release, while the broad-based Topix was 0.2% lower.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.14%.

U.S. markets were closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday, and will be open only for a half day on Friday.

Asia markets live: Tokyo CPI, South Korea industrial production

In other news.

France’s political chaos drives borrowing costs to the same level as Greece’s for the first time

Published Thu, Nov 28 2024 7:29 AM EST Updated Thu, Nov 28 2024 7:42 AM EST

France’s brewing political crisis is spilling into financial markets with the country’s borrowing costs hitting the same level as debt-ridden Greece’s for the first time on record Thursday.

The spread — the difference in yield between two bonds — between French 10-year government bond yields and their Greek counterparts was reduced to zero earlier Thursday. The yield on the French 10-year stood at 3.0010% while the same Greek bond stood at 3.030%.

Investors demanding the same interest for holding French debt as they would for holding that of peripheral and debt-ridden economy Greece shows the extent of concerns over political turmoil in France as the government, led by Prime Minister Michel Barnier, struggles to get support for its 2025 budget that aims to cut spending and raise taxes to curb France’s yawning budget deficit.

As it stands, the left-wing New Popular Front alliance has said it will table a vote of no confidence in the government if Barnier tries to force through the budget, which envisages 60 billion euros ($63.3 billion) worth of tax hikes and spending cuts.

The far-right National Rally has threatened to support the left in the no-confidence vote, a move that would bring down the government and plunge France into further political and economic uncertainty.

New elections cannot be held until next June, twelve months on from the last parliamentary elections that saw both the far-left and far-right perform well in the first and second round of the vote but both failing to win a majority of the seats. As such, following the election, President Emmanuel Macron put conservative Barnier in charge of a minority government following the election.

French officials looked to defend the economy on Thursday, but acknowledged that bond investors viewing French debt as risky as Greece’s was a worrying development. Economy Minister Antoine Armand said Thursday that the French economy could not be compared with Greece’s, however.

More

France's political chaos drives borrowing costs to same level as Greece's

OPEC+ postpones meeting to decide oil production strategy to Dec. 5, sources say

Published Thu, Nov 28  :17 AM EST Updated Thu, Nov 28 2024 3:12 AM EST

The OPEC+ oil alliance postponed a meeting to decide the next steps of its crude production strategy to Dec. 5, two delegate sources told CNBC.

The sources did not want to be named given the sensitivity of discussions.

The coalition, made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, was initially scheduled to meet on Dec. 1. They will now confer virtually next week.

The OPEC+ coalition is currently operating three sets of separate oil production cuts, in response to an uncertain demand outlook.

Under its formal output strategy, member nations are curtailing their combined production to 39.725 million barrels per day (bpd) into next year. Eight OPEC+ members are meanwhile voluntarily reducing by 1.7 million barrels per day throughout 2025, along with a second set of 2.2 million bpd of cuts that they are currently due to begin phasing out in December.

The OPEC Secretariat later in the session said that the meeting was rescheduled as several ministers of member nations will be attending the Dec. 1 Gulf Summit in Kuwait City, Kuwait.

It remains to be seen whether this second voluntary 2.2 million bpd production trim will be extended, after global oil prices once more came under pressure earlier this week, as the implementation of a cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon reduced the risk of production disruption in the oil-rich Middle Eastern region.

Iran, one of the largest producers of the OPEC contingent, has backed Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Yemeni Houthi and Palestinian Hamas militant groups throughout the year-long conflict with Israel, as well as exchanged missile fire with the Jewish nation. Markets have been watching whether a continuation or escalation of the conflict could ultimately lead to hostilities targeting Iran’s key oil infrastructure — the backbone of its sanctioned economy.

More

OPEC+ postpones meeting to decide oil production strategy to Dec. 5: Sources

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Car production falls for eighth month in a row as factory closures and job losses loom over UK automotive industry

28 November 2024

The number of cars produced in Britain has declined for an eighth consecutive month, mounting more pressure on the nation's automotive industry following recent reports of factory closures and thousands of job losses.

UK plants made 15.3 per cent fewer cars last month than October 2023, new figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reveal this morning.

It means 2024 production is down 81,000 units with an output of 670,356 passenger models between January and the end of October (down from 751,422 last year). That's a 10.8 per cent year-on-year slip.

The trade body says the decline is primarily due to a fall in export demand as global new car markets - particularly in Europe - have weakened. It also blamed the decline on factories scaling back assembly because they have been 'retooling to enable production of the next generation of zero emission vehicles'.

Despite car makers upgrading their sites to build EVs they are unhappy about the Tory-introduced Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate, which requires at least 22 per cent of all sales in 2024 to be electric. The threshold increases annually up to the ban on new petrol and diesel cars at the end of the decade.

Failure to adhere to the binding sales targets results in fines of up to £15,000 per car (and £9,000 per van in 2024, rising to £18,000 from 2025) below the ZEV requirement. The trade body revealed earlier this week that manufacturers are on course be stung with £1.8billion in penalties this year.

SMMT boss Mike Hawes said it is 'deeply concerning times for the automotive industry' with these latest figures published in the wake of Vauxhall's parent company, Stellantis, announcing plans to close its 120-year-old Luton factory where it produces vans and shed some 1,100 jobs. The manufacturer had previously warned it could pull out of the UK due to the Government's over-ambitious EV sales targets.

Ford also recently announced intentions to axe 4,000 roles across Europe by the end of 2027, including roughly 800 jobs in the UK.

According to the SMMT's latest statistics, the number of passenger cars produced for overseas markets is down 14.8 per cent in the first 10 months of 2024 versus last year - equivalent to 89,095 fewer cars being shipped abroad - though outputs for the home market is up 5.3 per cent.

Around a third of the cars made in Britain in October this year were battery electric, plug-in hybrid and hybrid electric, as the motor industry continues to mount pressure on the Labour Government to ease its ZEV sales targets.

More

Car production falls for eighth month in a row as factory closures and job losses loom over UK automotive industry

Nissan execs sound the alarm on increasingly dire situation

27 November 2024

After posting net losses earlier this month, Nissan CEO Makoto Uchida said the "extremely tough situation" will force some bold restructuring moves.

In addition to downgrades to its full-year sales and operating outlooks, it set out to save $3 billion by drastically reducing its Mitsubishi share and cutting 9,000 from its global headcount of over 133,000 employees.

At its news conference, Nissan's Chief Monozukuri Officer (Head of Manufacturing) Hideyuki Sakamoto said that the controversial move will allow its factories to run more efficiently and save money.

“Globally, we currently have 25 vehicle production lines. Our current plan is to reduce the operational maximum capacity of these 25 lines by 20 percent,” Sakamoto said. “One specific method for this is to change the line speed and shift patterns, thereby increasing the efficiency of operational personnel.”

Nissan execs ring alarm bells

According to a new report by the Financial Times, unnamed senior officials near Nissan note that the automaker is beginning to exist on borrowed time as it seeks an anchor investor to get it through the year.

“We have 12 or 14 months to survive,” the senior official told FT. "This is going to be tough. And in the end, we need Japan and the US to be generating cash."

This crisis comes as Renault is selling its significant stake in Nissan. Previously, the French automaker owned up to 46% of Nissan, but its share has dwindled to under 36%.

The sources who spoke with the FT noted that the company is looking for a new long-term investor, such as a bank or large insurance group, to replace some of Renault's equity holdings.

Earlier this month, Nissan's CEO's drastic moves attracted the Singapore-based activist investment group Effissimo Capital Management and the Hong Kong-based Oasis Management Group to take their own stakes in Nissan.

More

Nissan execs sound the alarm on increasingly dire situation

Car parts supplier company Valeo to cut around 1,000 jobs in Europe, sources say

27 November 2024

PARIS (Reuters) -French car parts supplier Valeo will cut around 1,000 jobs in Europe, sources told Reuters, and the restructuring move will also result in Valeo closing two sites in France.

The job cuts will impact more than 800 workers in France, while Valeo will also cut staff at operations in Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic, added the sources.

Valeo's job cuts come after the company reduced its annual sales guidance in October and as the European car sector faces challenges from sluggish orders at home and competition from Asian rivals which often make cheaper electric vehicles (EVs).

Tyre maker Michelin also announced in November that it would cut 1,250 jobs, while French-Italian carmaker Stellantis said this week that it planned to shut its Vauxhall van factory in southern England.

Ford also announced this month that it would cut around 14% of its European workforce.

Car parts supplier company Valeo to cut around 1,000 jobs in Europe, sources say

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

More mainstream coverage of an interesting new way of tackling cancer, that we first covered back on November 16th.

Covid-19 Infection Can Shrink Cancer Tumors

November 27, 2024

It seems that even when it comes to infection and disease, every cloud may have a silver lining, as scientists have found severe infection with Covid-19 triggers the production of a powerful anti-cancer cell that can shrink tumors.

These cells are effective at shrinking even advanced stage four cancer tumors, according to a study published in the Journal of Clinical Investigation.

"We were surprised to see this," said Dr Ankit Bharat, chief of thoracic surgery at Northwestern Medicine, who led the research on mice that led to this finding.

"These cells have potent cancer-fighting properties and are very effective in migrating to the sites of cancer."

The researchers believe this finding opens the door to new drug therapies that activate cancer fighting cells—called monocytes.

They also believe that these new therapies will be more effective, and longer lasting than current cancer immunotherapies, to which people can become resistant, and which only help 20% to 40% of patients.

"What these monocytes specifically do is migrate to the site of the cancer, where they provide signals to recruit one of the most potent cancer-fighting cells in the human body, called NK cells [natural killer cells]," said Bharat.

"The monocytes don't directly kill the cancer but essentially function as a "secret agent," disguising themselves as "cancer-friendly cells," which allows them to reach into the heart of the cancer colonies.

"When they get there, they produce a chemical which gives signals to the NK cells to their location.

"Since both monocytes and NK cells are the body's own cells and do not harm healthy tissues, we think this approach will avoid several of the conventional side effects associated with traditional cancer treatments."

The use of monocytes and NK cells will increase the effectiveness of anti-cancer immunotherapy, said Bharat, because there are no known scientific ways in which cancer cells can become resistant to monocytes or NK cells.

"We are really excited and optimistic about this. Inside us, we have the world's most powerful military. We just need to figure out how to best employ it to fight the "terrorist" cancers."

Justin Stebbing, Professor of Biomedical Sciences, Anglia Ruskin University in the U.K. said the implications of the study extend even beyond Covid-19 and cancer.

Writing in The Conversation, he said: "It shows how our immune system can be trained by one type of threat to become more effective against another. This concept, known as "trained immunity", is an exciting area of research that could lead to new approaches for treating a wide range of diseases."

Professor Stebbing said it was crucial, however, that people didn't seek out Covid-19 infection as a way to fight cancer. "Severe COVID can be life-threatening and has many serious long-term health consequences."

Late-stage cancer treatment

The response of mice with stage 4 cancer tumors in this research opens the door to new late-stage cancer treatments, said Stebbing.

"This is particularly exciting as it offers hope for advanced cancers that don't respond to current treatments," Stebbing told Newsweek.

"There is potential for developing a drug for people with stage 4 cancer currently limited to palliative care."

"The research suggests that activating this monocyte pathway could benefit patients with advanced cancers that haven't responded to other treatments."

Dr Bharat said the next step would be to conduct clinical trials.

Reference

Volume 134, Issue 22 on November 15, 2024, J Clin Invest. 2024;134(22): e179527. https://doi.org/10.1172/JCI179527.

Covid-19 Infection Can Shrink Cancer Tumors

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

A Power-Dense Battery Will Charge 186 Miles in 5 Minutes—and Change How We Drive Forever

November 27, 2024

  • Increased power and range of electric vehicles could help turbocharge their adoption—a crucial step toward cutting emissions.
  • The Taiwan-based EV company ProLogium has developed the world’s first solid-state battery with a silicon composite anode, which is capable of charging from 5 percent to 60 percent—or 186 miles—in just five minutes.
  • These batteries are also more energy dense, meaning that they can help lighten vehicle weight (and prices) or soup up subcompact EVs.

The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is often described in terms of “anxieties,” whether they be related to range (how far an EV travels on a single charge) or charge (how long it takes to recharge a vehicle’s battery). Things have improved significantly since the introduction of the 2010 Nissan Leaf, but battery technology and charging infrastructure both have a long way to go to reassure a large swath of the car-driving public that an EV is just as worthy a purchase as a gas-powered vehicle.

Luckily, the Taiwan-based ceramic battery manufacturer ProLogium has recently introduced a new battery technology that packs more power in a smaller package while charging wickedly fast—around 186 miles in just five minutes, according to the company. This incredible breakthrough comes in the form of a silicon composite anode battery, a solid-state battery that out performs both mainstream lithium-ion and lithium iron phosphate batteries. The company originally unveiled this battery at the 2024 Paris Motor Show in October.

According to the German certification company TÜV Rheinland, this world-first silicon anode EV battery delivers 321 Watts per kilogram (W/kg) by weight, which exceeds even the highest ratings of current lithium-ion batteries. As for those charging times, the company says in a press statement that a 186-mile charge in five minutes is far faster than the industry-standard 30 minutes that many other batteries need to power a car over the same distance. Additionally, 186 miles is only 60 percent of the battery’s capacity—it can reach 80 percent in just another 3.5 minutes.

“Our new technology has broken through existing barriers,” Dmitry Belov, chief scientist at ProLogium, said in a press statement. “Since 2023, we’ve consistently outperformed our competitors, with the gap only growing larger, in both energy density and in fast-charging performance.”

ProLogium estimates that this power-dense battery could cut vehicle weight by 300 kg (661 lbs), improving efficiency while cutting vehicle costs. Conversely, automakers could pack more power into subcompact cars by keeping the weight as-is. Perhaps most importantly, these batteries are also modular, meaning that they are easier to service, repair, and replace. The company hopes to begin production of this new battery by 2027.

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A Power-Dense Battery Will Charge 186 Miles in 5 Minutes—and Change How We Drive Forever

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Another weekend and another weekend closer to Christmas, plus another weekend closer to Trump presidency 2.0. Will Trump 2.0 bring boom or bust? Have a great weekend everyone.

But I don’t want to go among mad people,” Trump remarked.
“Oh, you can’t help that,” said Chairman Powell: “we’re all mad here. I’m mad. You’re mad.”
“How do you know I’m mad?” said Trump.
“You must be,” said Chaiman Powell, “or you wouldn’t have come here.”

With apologies to Lewis Carroll and Alice.

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