Monday, 11 November 2024

‘’Trump Trade War 2.0. China Disappoints. An Auto Disaster Looms.

Baltic Dry Index. 1495 +44            Brent Crude  73.57

Spot Gold 2669                  US 2 Year Yield 4.26 +0.05

If two parties, instead of being a bank and an individual, were an individual and an individual, they could not inflate the circulating medium by a loan transaction, for the simple reason that the lender could not lend what he didn't have, as banks can do. Only commercial banks and trust companies can lend money that they manufacture by lending it.

Irving Fisher.

In the Asian stock casinos, an underwhelming reaction to the latest China economic stimulus measures.

Asia-Pacific markets slip as China data and stimulus fall short of expectations

Updated Sun, Nov 10 2024 9:52 PM EST

Asia-Pacific markets fell Monday after China’s latest stimulus measures underwhelmed and its October inflation numbers came in lower than expected, prompting concerns over the recovery in the world’s second-largest economy.

Beijing announced a five-year stimulus package worth 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) to tackle local government debt problems on Friday. However, some analysts doubt it is enough to meaningfully stimulate growth.

The country’s inflation rate declined to 0.3%, missing expectations of 0.4% and also lower than the 0.4% seen in September. Inflation fell for a second straight month and dropped to its lowest in four months, LSEG data showed.

On Monday, China kicks off its Singles’ Day — the equivalent of Black Friday in the country. A note from ING on Friday said that Singles’ Day will show how consumption was faring in China.

“We suspect that given the shift toward value-for-money purchases and online shopping, we’ll continue to see solid growth numbers from the event that should comfortably outpace the overall consumption growth momentum.”

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 2.5%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 was down 1%.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 was down 0.40%, while the broad-based Topix slipped 0.32%.

South Korea’s Kospi was down 1%, and the small-cap Kosdaq was 1.9% lower.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.43%.

On Friday in the U.S., the stock market climbed to fresh highs, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 notching their best week in a year after Donald Trump’s election win.

The blue-chip Dow rose 259.65 points, or 0.59%, to close at 43,988.99. During the session, the Dow traded above 44,000 for the first time ever

The S&P 500 gained 0.38% to close at 5,995.54, after briefly trading above 6,000. However, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose just 0.09% to 19,286.78.

Asia markets live: Singles' Day, China CPI

S&P 500 futures are little changed following broad index’s best week of the year: Live updates

Updated Sun, Nov 10 2024 6:17 PM EST

Stock futures are near flat Sunday night as Wall Street looks to what’s next after a post-election rally propelled the market to record highs.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 19 points, trading slightly above breakeven. S&P 500 futures were also little changed, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.2%.

Sunday’s action follows a big week for U.S. stocks, with the three major averages closing at all-time closing highs. The Dow and S&P 500 both notched their strongest weeks in around one year, with the former at one point breaking above the 44,000 level for the first time.

Last week’s rally was considered broad, with both the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite and small cap-focused Russell 2000 also advancing.

A large chunk of the week’s gains came Wednesday, when the Dow rallied 1,500 points after Donald Trump won the presidential election. Traders also closely followed Thursday’s Federal Reserve policy announcement — where it was revealed that interest rates would be once again lowered — and the subsequent press conference with Chair Jerome Powell.

“Investors hate uncertainty, and, with the election decided, markets now have clarity, and are able to lay fears of a contested election to rest,” Northern Trust investment chief Katie Nixon wrote to clients on Friday. “Investors can now train their focus on what matters most to markets — economic and corporate fundamentals.”

There is no economic data of note expected Monday, but investors will be awaiting inflation readings due out later in the week. Ticketmaster parent Live Nation and food and facility service provider Aramark are among companies reporting earnings on Monday.

Stock market today: Live updates

In other news.

Iron ore price drops toward $100 as China’s latest fix disappoints

Bloomberg News | November 10, 2024 

Iron ore fell toward $100 a ton as Beijing’s latest efforts to revive the economy left investors disappointed, while an expansion in Chinese port stockpiles highlighted ample supplies.

Futures declined as much as 2% in Singapore after slumping on Friday, when the Chinese government unveiled a debt-swap plan but stopped short of measures to directly boost domestic demand, including in the beleaguered property sector.

The steel-making staple has retreated by more than a quarter this year, hurt by China’s property slump and signs that miners are boosting production. With mills in the top producer struggling to sell steel domestically given the weak demand, exports of the alloy surged to the highest level since 2015 last month.

Port holdings of iron ore in China have expanded for the past four weeks to the highest level since early September. On a seasonal basis, the inventories are at their biggest ever for this time of year.

Iron ore futures fell 1.7% to $100.85 a ton as of 10:47 a.m. in Singapore after losing 2.8% on Friday. In China, yuan-priced contracts in Dalian dropped 2.3%, and steel futures in Shanghai also declined.

Shares of leading iron ore mining companies dropped in Australia, with BHP Group, Fortescue Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group all declining.

In base metals, copper added 0.2% to $9,458.50 a ton on the London Metal Exchange after capping a sixth straight weekly decline. Aluminum rose 0.2%, while nickel dropped 0.9%.

Iron ore price drops toward $100 as China’s latest fix disappoints - MINING.COM

Fed’s Kashkari says Trump tariffs could reheat inflation if they provoke global trade ‘tit for tat’

Published Sun, Nov 10 2024 1:04 PM EST

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Sunday that President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff proposals could worsen long-term inflation if global trade partners were to strike back.

One-time tariffs, Kashkari said on CBS’ “Face the Nation,” “shouldn’t have an effect long run on inflation.”

“The challenge becomes, if there’s a tit for tat and it’s one country imposing tariffs and then responses and it’s escalating. That’s where it becomes more concerning, and, frankly, a lot more uncertain,” Kashkari said.

During his first term, Trump essentially sparked a trade war with China when he imposed a series of import taxes on Chinese goods, which triggered the country to retaliate with its own set of tariffs on the U.S.

One of Trump’s primary economic proposals for his second term is to impose universal tariffs on all imports from all countries — with a specifically targeted 60% rate on China.

Economists, Wall Street analysts and industry leaders have repeatedly expressed concerns over the inflationary impact of that hardline trade approach, especially since inflation has just begun to cool from its pandemic-era peaks.

“We’ve made a lot of progress in bringing inflation down,” Kashkari said. “I mean, I don’t want to declare victory yet. We need to finish the job, but we’re on a good path right now.”

The Fed on Thursday passed its second consecutive interest rate cut, continuing its effort to loosen monetary policy as inflation approaches the central bank’s 2% target. Kashkari said he expects another cut to come in December, but that will depend on “what the data looks like” at that time.

As for Trump’s other major policy proposals like a sweeping immigrant deportation plan, Kashkari noted that the inflation threat is still unclear and so the Fed is still taking a “wait and see” approach before adjusting its policy.

Trump and his backers like billionaire Tesla CEO Elon Musk have also been outspoken about their desire to give the president input on Fed policy decisions. The central bank views its political independence as a core feature that allows it to shape monetary policy exclusively based on the health of the U.S. economy, not election incentives.

But Kashkari said he is not concerned about politics permeating Fed decisions.

“I’m confident that we will continue to focus on our economic jobs,” he said. “That’s what should be dictating what we’re doing and that is what’s dictating what we’re doing.”

Kashkari: Trump tariffs could reheat inflation if countries retaliate

What Trump’s mass deportation plan would mean for immigrant workers and the economy

Published Sun, Nov 10 202 49:25 AM EST Updated Sun, Nov 10 2024 11:41 AM EST

President-Elect Donald J. Trump won the White House based partly on his promises to rein in immigration, with targeted policies that range from sending criminals to their home countries to more sweeping ones like mass deportations. During the campaign, Trump pledged to end the Temporary Protected Status that allows workers from select countries to come to the U.S. to work. If some of the larger deportation efforts, like rolling back TPS,  come to fruition, experts say that there will be ripple effects felt in most sectors of the economy, in particular construction, housing and agriculture.

Economists and labor specialists are most worried about the economic impact of policies that would deport workers already in the U.S., both documented and undocumented.

Staffing agencies were watching the election especially closely.

“The morning after the election, we sat down as a leadership team and explored what does this mean for talent availability?” said Jason Leverant, president and COO of the AtWork Group, a franchise-based national staffing agency. AtWork provides commercial staffing in immigrant-heavy verticals like warehouses, industrial, and agriculture in 39 states. 

Workers – “talent” in industry parlance – are already in short supply. While the worst of the labor crisis spurred by the post-Covid economic boom has passed, and labor supply and demand has come back into balance in recent months, the number of workers available to fill jobs across the U.S. economy remains a closely watched data point. Mass deportation would exacerbate this economic issue, say employers and economists.

“If the proposed immigration policies come into reality, there could be a significant impact,” Leverant said, pointing to estimates that a mass deportation program could leave as many as one million difficult-to-fill potential job openings.

More

What Trump mass deportation plan would mean for immigrants and economy

Finally, gearing up for Trump Trade War Two.

US farmers gird for trade wars on Trump tariff pledges

Washington (AFP) – Donald Trump's first White House term saw a bruising trade war with China that left a lingering impact on farmers -- and many are bracing for further fallout as the President-elect threatens higher levies on Beijing.

10 November 2024

Trump tariffs since 2018 hit some $300 billion of Chinese imports, sparking retaliation that targeted key farm products like soybeans and caused such exports to fall.

US farmers relied on subsidies to get by at the time and say China has since reduced its reliance on American agriculture products.

Trump has suggested tariffs on all imports this time -- with an especially high rate on China -- making many farm owners jittery of a return to trade tensions.

But this comes even as Trump's Republican party saw wide support in rural areas during this year's election, with many farmers supporting him despite the financial hit in the trade war. The hope is for economic conditions to improve.

"There was no money to pay the bills, no money to actually have a living out of the operation," said Ted Winter, whose farm in Minnesota grows corn and soybeans.

Retaliatory tariffs on the United States caused more than $27 billion in US agricultural export losses from mid-2018 to late-2019, the Department of Agriculture (USDA) found.

China accounted for around 95 percent of value lost.

Soybeans in particular made up nearly 71 percent of total trade loss, with Brazil gaining most of the lost trade.

Michael Slattery, who grows crops like corn, soybeans and wheat in Wisconsin, added: "I view this second term with tremendous trepidation."

Between 2017 and 2018 for example, his soybean income fell by over $25,000 -- and government payouts to alleviate the pain made up for just over half the shortfall.

The USDA estimates agriculture and related industries contributed a 5.6 percent share to GDP in 2023, while direct on-farm employment made up 2.6 million jobs as of recent years.

"What is more frightening is the breakdown in commercial order that has taken decades to establish," Slattery said.

While US farm exports to China rebounded after Washington and Beijing reached a trade war truce in 2020, a year after the deal, American market share remained lower than levels seen before the retaliatory tariffs were enacted.

"The tariffs that were imposed upon China drove them to find other sources for their food needs," said Winter.

And without foreign buyers like China to absorb excess farm production, the market becomes oversaturated, in turn driving down prices and farmer incomes, said Slattery.

Federal payments may have been helpful to farmers during the trade war, but trade ramifications extended long beyond it, said Scott Gerlt, chief economist at the American Soybean Association (ASA).

Soybeans and corn will again be "prime targets for tariffs" in a potential trade dispute, according to a National Corn Growers Association and ASA report last month.

Both commodities account for about one-fourth of the country's agriculture export value.

More

US farmers gird for trade wars on Trump tariff pledges

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

British Car Manufacturer Announces Second Round of Layoffs This Year

10 November 2024

The British sports car manufacturer Lotus announced it will lay off up to 200 employees in the UK.

The company which is owned by Chinese auto group Geely, is making its second round of job cuts this year.

Streamlining Operations

The cuts follow previous rounds in 2023, reflecting the company’s efforts to streamline operations and respond to changing market demands.

The layoffs will impact the company’s Hethel division, which oversees the production of the Emira sports car, the all-electric Evija hypercar, and the development of the Type 135 project — a future electric replacement for the Emira and Elise.

In a statement to Autocar, Lotus said it will work to reassign or retrain employees wherever possible to retain essential skills and knowledge within the company, according to Boosted.

“These proposed organizational changes at Lotus Cars are necessary to ensure that we have the right structure to support sustainable operations,” Lotus said.

After reviewing resources against market demand, the company stated that it will be “optimizing internal processes and structures” to meet long-term business goals.

The auto industry is facing a turbulent period, with shifting demand, economic challenges, and rapid transitions to electric vehicles (EVs) affecting even longstanding brands like Lotus.

Rising production costs, increased competition from electric car manufacturers, and a global decline in luxury car sales have all pressured the market.

Many companies are cutting costs to stay competitive, with major automakers like Ford and General Motors also making significant layoffs and restructuring plans this year.

The latest round of layoffs is expected to affect up to 200 positions across Lotus’ UK operations.

Employees were informed of the job risks earlier this week. At the close of 2023, Lotus employed around 1,700 people in the UK, meaning the current reductions represent a significant restructuring for the company.

Despite the changes, Lotus confirmed that its Evija hypercar project, introduced by the Advanced Performance team, will continue as planned.

However, Simon Lane, who previously led the Advanced Performance division, recently left the company.

Lotus also stated that it still aims to launch its electric sports car, the Type 135, by 2027. The recent unveiling of the Theory 1 concept model provides a glimpse into the brand’s future direction, but the challenging market raises questions about how sustainable this vision will be.

British Car Manufacturer Announces Second Round of Layoffs This Year

Stellantis to lay off 400 workers at Detroit parts facility

November 8, 2024

DETROIT (Reuters) - Stellantis added to its rising tally of layoffs on Friday, saying 400 workers at a Detroit automotive parts facility would indefinitely lose their jobs as the carmaker reduces costs in its struggling North American business. 

"As Stellantis navigates a transitional year, the focus is on realigning its U.S. operations to ensure a strong start to 2025," the company said in a statement.

The automaker on Wednesday laid off about 1,100 employees at a Jeep Gladiator plant in Ohio, and in August cut as many as 2,450 unionized jobs at a Michigan facility as it ended production of the Ram 1500 Classic truck.

Stellantis' emphasis on cost-cutting has intensified as CEO Carlos Tavares tries to reverse its sliding sales and profits in the U.S.

Tavares recently shook up his top management, and the company announced he would retire after his contract ends in early 2026. Stellantis' stock is down about 41% this year.

While the company has reduced its salaried workforce through voluntary buyouts, job cuts among its manufacturing employees represented by the United Auto Workers union have gathered the most attention from politicians.

The UAW didn't respond to a request for comment.

President-elect Donald Trump recently warned that he would place a 100% tariff on Stellantis if the automaker tried moving U.S. jobs to Mexico.

Stellantis to lay off 400 workers at Detroit parts facility

Stellantis set to again halt production at Italy's Mirafiori plant

November 8, 2024

MILAN (Reuters) -Automaker Stellantis will once again halt car production at its historic Mirafiori plant in Italy, which makes the electric Fiat 500 and two Maserati models, a trade union source said on Friday, confirming press reports.

Auto production at the site, which had been suspended from mid-September until Nov. 1 due to poor demand, resumed this week but is due to stop again for the whole of December, the source said, citing "inside information".

He said Stellantis had not yet officially communicated the move to unions - as is customary in such circumstances - but the new pause seemed inevitable given the information coming from suppliers and other sources.

Earlier, Italian MF daily said the Fiat 500 assembly line had reopened on Monday on a reduced output of 170 vehicles per day, and would close again for the whole of next month, "with a reopening after January 7".

Mirafiori, based in northwestern Turin, the hometown of the Fiat brand, is a massive industrial complex that is largely idle. The trade union source said the December stoppage would also involve its slow-selling Maserati sports cars.

MF said Stellantis had concentrated three months' worth of Fiat 500 orders into November production, and wanted but failed to also have some output in December due to supply problems leading to a shortage of components.

"This is a rumour that has no official confirmation. The company will verify in the coming weeks the production schedules for December," a spokesperson for Stellantis told Reuters when asked for comment on the newspaper's report.

The Turin head of the FIM-Cisl union, Rocco Cutri, told Reuters that his organisation had no certainties, but was nevertheless expecting Mirafiori workers to be furloughed again at the end of November "for at least two to three weeks".

Stellantis is facing industry-wide challenges such as low demand for more expensive electric vehicles and competition from China. It is also grappling with bloated U.S. inventories that have led it to cut profit and cash-flow forecasts.

Stellantis set to again halt production at Italy's Mirafiori plant

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Why no product recall for the Covid vaccines? Approx. 17 minutes.

Pharmaceutical product recall

Pharmaceutical product recall - YouTube

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Engineering Graphene’s Properties Through Physical Manipulation

November 8, 2024

A study published in Nano Letters by researchers from the Florida State University Department of Physics and FSU-headquartered National High Magnetic Field Laboratory explores how physical manipulations of graphene, such as layering and twisting, affect its optical properties and conductivity.

Graphene is known for its conductivity, which exceeds that of copper, as well as its strength and lightweight nature, making it suitable for various applications in electrically conductive nanomaterials. This form of naturally occurring elemental carbon consists of a single flat layer of carbon atoms arranged in a repeating hexagonal lattice, prompting ongoing research into its properties.

The research team, led by Assistant Professors Guangxin Ni and Cyprian Lewandowski, along with graduate research assistant Ty Wilson, found that the conductivity of twisted bilayer graphene is more influenced by small geometric structure changes caused by interlayer twisting than by physical or chemical manipulations. This discovery lays the groundwork for further investigation into the effects of lower temperatures and frequencies on graphene's characteristics.

This specific path of research began as an attempt to explain some of the optical properties of twisted bilayer graphene, as this material has been imaged with scanning near-field optical microscopes before, but not in a way that compared different twisting angles. We wanted to examine this material from that perspective.

Ty Wilson, Graduate Research Assistant, Florida State University

To conduct the study, the group captured images of plasmons—tiny energy waves generated when the electrons in a material move in unison—and observed their presence in various areas of the twisted bilayer graphene.

Wilson added, “The scanning near-field optical microscope essentially shines a certain wavelength of infrared light onto the sample, and the scattered light is collected back to form a nanoscale image that is way below the diffraction limit. The key here is that it involves a needle that substantially boosts the light-matter coupling, enabling us to see these plasmons using nano-light.

----The team found that even when the graphene is electrically doped and subjected to varying infrared light frequencies, the optical conductivity of twisted bilayer graphene with boron nitride remains relatively unchanged for twist angles smaller than two degrees.

What this tells us is the opto-electronic properties of this super-moiré material are independent of chemical doping or the twisted bilayer graphene’s twist angle, and instead depend more on the super-moiré structure itself and how it affects the electronic bands in the material, allowing for enhanced optical conductivity,” Wilson added.

Lewandowski stated that this result is exciting because it shows how multilayer moiré systems can be used to create materials with “on-demand” optical properties.

----The team's findings illustrate the important role of geometric relaxations in double-moiré lattices, improving researchers' understanding of how nanomaterials like graphene respond to different manipulations.

This knowledge can be used to aid in the development of specific optical characteristics, such as enhanced conductivity, in materials. Such advancements could contribute to practical applications in moiré optoelectronics, including thermal imaging technologies and optical switching in computer processors.

More

Engineering Graphene’s Properties Through Physical Manipulation

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared. 

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months.

Irving Fisher, September 1929.

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