Saturday, 23 November 2024

Special Update 23/11/2024 Nuts! Europe, UK, Recession Looms.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1537 -39          Brent Crude 75.17

Spot Gold 2716              U S 2 Year Yield 4.37 +0.03

Wall Street people learn nothing and forget everything.

Benjamin Graham.

In the stock casinos, more Trump bubble madness.

In the real economy, especially the global economy, particularly Europe’s economy, a nasty recession looms if it hasn’t already started.

In the US economy, what will happen if Team Trump fires tens of thousands of Federal government employees next year?

Dow rises more than 400 points for record close, Wall Street posts weekly gain: Live updates

Updated Fri, Nov 22 2024 4:23 PM EST

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a new record on Friday, capping off a winning week for stocks.

The blue-chip Dow gained 426.16 points, or 0.97%, to 44,296.51, a new all-time closing high and its third straight positive session. The S&P 500 added 0.35% to finish at 5,969.34 for its fifth winning day in a row.

The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to 19,003.65. Gains were restricted by slides of 3.2% and 1.7% in Nvidia and Alphabet, respectively.

The Dow ended the week about 2% higher, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each added about 1.7%. That marks a turn from last week, when Wall Street’s postelection rally stalled.

Friday’s moves marked a continuation of a trend where investors shift exposure from tech to names in more economically sensitive corners of the market. That can explain why the industrial and consumer discretionary sectors led the S&P 500 higher, while communication services was the worst performer.

While tech struggled, bitcoin neared the long-awaited milestone of $100,000. Small-cap stocks also showed strength this week, with the Russell 2000 climbing 1.8% in Friday’s session to finish the week up by roughly 4.5%.

“Investors are rotating out of the previous high flyers of large-cap communication services and technology and into other cyclical sectors of consumer discretionary, industrials, and financials, as well as mid- and small-cap stocks,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. “Drivers continue to be the traditional end-of-election-year rally, in which all sizes, styles, and sectors within the S&P 1500 rose in price.”

Stock market news for Nov. 22, 2024

Wall Street’s Biggest Risk Takers Are Doubling Down

November 22, 2024 at 11:39 PM GMT

As Wall Street learned Friday evening that Donald Trump is preparing to announce Scott Bessent, who runs macro hedge fund Key Square Group, as his nominee for US Treasury secretary, traders were looking back on a strange week in markets. The buy-everything mania that greeted Trump’s election has been cooling as his finance fanbase begins to consider the consequences of some of his economic plans. Yet on the speculative fringes, the risk-taking extravaganza isn’t just continuing—it’s getting bigger by the day. Heavy trading—and big price moves—in everything from crypto to leveraged exchange-traded funds was the story in a week where swings in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 finally started to abate.

Ground zero for the casino crowd is the $140 billion complex of amped-up exchange-traded funds tracking the likes of Big Tech stocks and Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin proxy MicroStrategy. No corner of the juiced-up ETF world saw more action than funds centered on the software firm Saylor transformed into what amounts to a pure-play bet on Bitcoin (more on that below). Two leveraged funds based on the company saw a combined $420 million inflow amid a 24% surge for the underlying stock this week. The popularity of the two funds has led some market-observers to point to a leveraged-loop buying frenzy.

More.

Wall Street’s Biggest Risk Takers Are Doubling Down - Bloomberg

In EV news, more problems.

Hyundai, Kia recall over 208,000 electric vehicles to fix problem that can cause loss of power

22 November 2024

Hyundai and Kia are recalling over 208,000 electric vehicles to fix a pesky problem that can cause loss of drive power, increasing the risk of a crash.

The recalls cover more than 145,000 Hyundai and Genesis vehicles including the 2022 through 2024 Ioniq 5, the 2023 through 2025 Ioniq 6, GV60 and GV70, and the 2023 and 2024 G80.

Also included are nearly 63,000 Kia EV 6 vehicles from 2022 through 2024.

The affiliated Korean automakers say in government documents that a transistor in a charging control unit can be damaged and stop charging the 12-volt battery.

Dealers will inspect and replace the control unit and a fuse if needed. They also will update software. Owners whose vehicles were recalled earlier this year to fix the same problem will have to visit their dealer again.

Owners will be notified by letter in December and January.

Hyundai, Kia recall over 208,000 electric vehicles to fix problem that can cause loss of power

Finally, as a service to President Putin and Prime Minister Netanyahu, plus a few others, the list of countries to avoid visiting even if by accident. I hope neither has a Swiss bank account.

The States Parties to the Rome Statute

124 countries are States Parties to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. Out of them 33 are African States, 19 are Asia-Pacific States, 19 are from Eastern Europe, 28 are from Latin American and Caribbean States, and 25 are from Western European and other States.

    
UN Treaty - Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court   
 
    
States Parties - Chronological Lists   

The States Parties to the Rome Statute | International Criminal Court

Orban invites Netanyahu to Hungary as ICC warrant divides Europeans

By Krisztina Than and Friederike Heine  November 22, 20242:50 PM GMT

BUDAPEST, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Prime Minister Viktor Orban invited Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday to visit Hungary but several other European nations said the Israeli premier would be detained if he set foot on their soil, following the issuing of an arrest warrant for him.

The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants on Thursday for Netanyahu, his former defence chief Yoav Gallant, and for a Hamas leader, Ibrahim Al-Masri, for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Gaza conflict.

All EU countries are members of the court, which means they are supposed to enforce its warrants.

But the diverging reactions - and the fact that EU heavyweights Germany and France have not said if they would arrest Netanyahu - highlight the major diplomatic and political challenge posed by the ICC decision, which drew swift condemnation from Israeli leaders and the White House.

"For us Europeans, this warrant exposes a real dilemma between international law, which is our law, and our foreign policy, especially for those member states that are unconditionally backing Israel," Eurointelligence analysts wrote in a note.

More

Orban invites Netanyahu to Hungary as ICC warrant divides Europeans | Reuters

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch. 

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation/recession now needs an entire section of its own.

Europe’s Economic Woes Deepen With Private Sector Slump

November 22, 2024 at 6:00 PM GMT

Euro-area business activity shrank in November, underscoring the damage being wrought by political chaos and heightened discord over trade. New data from the Purchasing Managers’ Index by S&P Global revived wagers that the European Central Bank will make heftier interest rate cuts. The result doesn’t come as a total shock amid the steady flow of dismal economic news, especially in Germany, the region’s biggest economy and driver of growth. With the car industry on the ropes and the government in disarray, the nation’s economy grew just 0.1% in the third quarter — less than initially reported. France’s private sector activity also shrank at the fastest pace since January, and the UK suffered similarly amid shifting fiscal plans. Our latest News Now podcast on the region’s slump is here. — Joshua Gallu

Europe’s Economic Woes Deepen With Private Sector Slump - Bloomberg

Recession risk as Britain reels from Reeves’s Budget

22 November 2024

Economists have sounded the alarm over a UK recession after data showed Britain’s economy was reeling from the effects of Rachel Reeves’s tax-raising Budget.

Britain is now “close to stagnation” after closely watched PMI figures showed activity among the UK’s private sector companies shrank for the first time in more than a year in November.

Sterling dropped to its lowest against the dollar since May and banking stocks plunged on Friday. Economists said they were “more worried” that Britain’s performance might not be as good as previous forecasts.

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “Companies are giving a clear ‘thumbs down’ to the policies announced in the Budget, especially the planned increase in employers’ National Insurance contributions.”

 More

Recession risk as Britain reels from Reeves’s Budget

Thousands of jobs to go at Bosch in latest blow to German car industry

November 22, 2024

Bosch will cut up to 5,500 jobs as it struggles with slow electric vehicle sales and competition from Chinese imports.

It is the latest blow to the European car industry after Volkswagen and Ford announced thousands of job cuts in the last month.

Cheaper Chinese-made electric cars have made it trickier for European manufacturers to remain competitive while demand has weakened for the driver assistance and automated driving solutions made by Bosch.

The company said a slower-than-expected transition to electric, software-controlled vehicles was partly behind the cuts, which are being made in the car parts division.

Demand for new cars has fallen overall in Germany as the economy has slowed, with recession only narrowly avoided in recent years.

The final number of job cuts has yet to be agreed with employee representatives. Bosch said they would be carried out in a "socially responsible" way.

About half the job reductions would be at locations in Germany.

More

Thousands of jobs to go at Bosch in latest blow to German car industry

Auto worker wipeout: Why car companies are cutting thousands of jobs

November 21, 2024

Major automakers around the world have announced multiple rounds of layoffs and factory closures in recent weeks as they struggle to turn a profit on EVs and face a potential onslaught of cheaper competition.

FordGeneral Motors, and Stellantis plan to slash thousands from their workforce in the coming months. Volkswagen has announced plans to shutter three of its factories in Germany, which could come with massive layoffs.

Unfortunately for the world's major carmakers, they aren't facing one issue but an agglomeration of several significant interconnected challenges at once. Add to that an ultracompetitive business with high overhead costs and low profit margins, and things quickly get very difficult.

When market dynamics, regulatory requirements, and financial costs shift dramatically in a relatively short period of time, the results can be dire. That's what we're seeing play out.

A massive and expensive pivot to EVs has failed to turn a profit

The auto industry has invested or announced plans to invest more than $300 billion in US EV and battery production since 2016, the NRDC estimates. That's led to a slew of new models on the market and (relatively) cheaper pricing for consumers.

But despite that growth — and with EVs accounting for roughly 10% of US auto sales — companies not named Tesla have struggled to make their EV businesses profitable.

GM, for example, has invested $35 billion in its EV and autonomous-driving businesses, which has led to new electric models like the Hummer EV and Cadillac Lyriq. Despite the warm reception from the public, the company's profits this year are entirely driven by the strong sales of its internal-combustion trucks and SUVs.

GM has said it expects its EVs to reach profitability sometime before the end of the year.

It's the same story at Ford.

The company's Model e EV division lost nearly $3.7 billion during the first nine months of this year, including $1.2 billion in the last quarter alone.

The rapid transformation of the Chinese market

The exponential growth in China's appetite for cars over the past two decades made it a steady profit center for global automakers like VW Group and GM. From 2014 to 2018, GM took in an average of $2 billion a year from its Chinese joint ventures.

But in recent years, Chinese consumers have increasingly turned to competitive domestic automakers like BYD and the Geely Group, whose brands have sold 1.6 million vehicles in the market so far this year.

GM's market share in the country peaked at around 15% in the middle of the last decade and was down to just 6.5% in the most recent quarter.

So far this year, Volkswagen Group's sales in China, its largest market, are down about 10% over last year, and the company predicts the situation may deteriorate further.

In response to the potential competition, European leaders have readied tariffs on cars imported from China. VW warned that potential retaliatory tariffs on European cars by China could only make things worse.

An increasingly competitive domestic market

Competition for automakers in their domestic markets has heated up.

In the US, Stellantis saw its sales plummet by 17% this year thanks to slower sales of its Jeep-branded SUVs and Ram pickup trunks.

Price seems to be a major factor. The average price of a Stellantis vehicle is around $56,000, far above the industry average of $48,000.

The company had to offer aggressive incentives (on top of lower production) during the third quarter to help dealers clear the glut of unsold cars off their lots. Analysts say inventory levels are improving at Stellantis and industry-wide as automakers react to a slower sales environment.

But uncertainty looms large as President-elect Donald Trump threatens tariffs on all goods imported into the United States and eyes ending tax credits for electric vehicles, which could be another headwind for sales, industry experts say.

Auto worker wipeout: Why car companies are cutting thousands of jobs

Jaguar warned of 'commercial suicide' with 'woke' rebrand: 'It's a joke!'

21 November 2024

British car manufacturer Jaguar has been warned of "commercial suicide" after rebranding their logo and releasing a bold new television advert.

The luxury vehicle maker, founded in 1922, has swapped their iconic jaguar logo for a curved geometric J badge, removing any depiction of the animal the brand is based on.

In defence of their rebrand, Jaguar said in a statement that the vision for their new image is built around "Exuberant Modernism".

However, motoring author and co-founder of the International XK Jaguar Club, Philip Porter said the rebrand comes across as a "bad joke", warning the company of "commercial suicide".

Porter told GB News: "I think it's commercial suicide. I think it's a bad joke, it's hilarious.

"I think it's just absolutely crazy. There's always been a passion about Jaguar, and this logo is is just ridiculous, isn't it? It takes a long time to build a brand, but you can crash it overnight."

In defence of Jaguar, commentator Amy Anzel said the new advert is "fantastic" and "thrilling".

Anzel explained: "I think it's fantastic. I think that ad is thrilling and exciting and like a coming attraction as to what's to come. If I want to describe it, it's definitely bold and artistic and imaginative.

More, inc. video.

Jaguar warned of 'commercial suicide' with 'woke' rebrand: 'It's a joke!'

Covid-19 Corner       

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Nuts, plus I wouldn’t put this former UK Health minister in charge of running a tea trolley let alone deciding vaccine policy.

Hospitals were 'hours from running out of PPE' during early months of Covid, Hancock says

Former health secretary Matt Hancock told the Covid-19 inquiry that some PPE was in very short supply during the first wave of the pandemic, and said that he "ruffled some feathers"

22:04, 21 NOV 2024

Matt Hancock has revealed England's hospitals were on the brink, mere "hours" away from exhausting supplies of certain personal protective equipment (PPE) during the initial months of the Covid-19 crisis.

The ex-health secretary disclosed to the Covid-19 inquiry that some PPE was in critical shortage across the first pandemic wave.

He holds a firm belief that in any forthcoming pandemics, vaccines should be compulsory for NHS and social care workers, and that masks ought to be obligatory in hospitals immediately. When probed by lead counsel to the inquiry, Jacqueline Carey KC, about the pre-pandemic lack of gowns impacting the capacity to provide adequate PPE, Mr Hancock admitted: "The stockpile that we had was not as good as it needs to be in the future, absolutely."

Enquired whether England ever completely depleted its PPE stock, he conceded: "As a whole? No, but individual locations did.

"We came extremely close. We came within small numbers of items on a regular basis during April and May 2020 – by the second wave, we were in better shape.

"Gowns I think at one point we got to within six or seven hours of running out.

"We were working incredibly hard to make sure that we didn’t (run out). We nearly did."

On the topic of facemask usage in hospitals during future pandemics, he commented: "It should be brought in immediately, and supplies need to be ready, preferably in each hospital, to make that possible."

Additionally, Mr Hancock stated that ensuring health and social care workers are fully vaccinated is a "reasonable step that should be expected" and advocated for simultaneous implementation in the NHS and social care sectors. The policy requiring Care Quality Commission-registered care home staff to be fully vaccinated to work in care homes, unless medically exempt, came into effect in November 2021, with full enforcement from April 2022.

Mr Hancock expressed regret over not applying this rule to both social care and the NHS at the same time, emphasising: "If you are employed to care for others, then you should take reasonable steps to ensure you are not harming those in your care."

"A clinically proven vaccine is a reasonable step that should be expected."

Earlier, Mr Hancock, who was booed by a campaigner as he arrived to give evidence, claimed he had "ruffled some feathers" by shielding the NHS from political interference.

He also told the inquiry meddling from Number 10 created "incredible difficulties" in Covid-19 testing efforts.

The inquiry's third module is scrutinising the repercussions of the virus on healthcare frameworks within the UK's four nations.

More

Hospitals were 'hours from running out of PPE' during early months of Covid, Hancock says - Chronicle Live

Regular nut consumption after this age wards off dementia and disease

By Michael Franco  November 21, 2024

Adding another plus in the "nuts are good for you" column, new research shows that regular consumption of the superfood not only holds off death, but it also keeps the mind sharp and limits persistent disability. But age was a factor in the study.

In the world of nutrition, nuts are a bit of a show off. In addition to their well-known abilities to improve cardiovascular health, the tiny protein-packed snack has also been shown to improve sperm count and motility, and fight obesity, diabetes, and inflammation. Plus the magnesium they contain has been linked to warding off DNA damage, while their omega-3 and omega-6 fatty acids have been shown to reduce the risk of 19 types of cancer.

Now, a new study from Monash University has given nuts another public relations boost.

More

Regular nut consumption after this age wards off dementia and disease

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Your Junk Is Needed for the New Electric Era

In remote Quebec, mining giant Glencore is turning America’s electronic trash back into treasure

Nov. 20, 2024 5:30 am ET

ROUYN-NORANDA, Quebec—One of the world’s largest miners is digging into America’s junk drawers, old phones and landfills. The quarry: bits of copper to meet the needs of the energy transition and data boom. 

Shredded cellphones, obsolete computer cables and chewed-up cars are heaped 30 feet high outside Glencore’s GLEN 0.69%increase; green up pointing triangle 97-year-old copper smelter deep in Canada’s sparsely populated boreal forest. There, the scrap is melted with copper concentrate from mines to produce fresh slabs of metal. 

Old electronics have long augmented the smelter’s input. But these days Glencore and other copper producers are casting wider nets for scrap and spending big to boost recycling capacity.

Shifting from fossil fuels to more renewable electricity promises to remake commodity markets. If America requires less crude oil and coal, it will in turn need a lot more lithium for electric-vehicle batteries, precisely shaped pine trees for bigger utility poles—and copper for everything electric.

“In the next 25 years we will consume more copper than humanity has consumed until now,” said Kunal Sinha, Glencore’s global head of recycling. “That’s the scale of the challenge.” 

Copper consumption surged in recent decades as China modernized. Demand got another boost from 2022’s climate and tax law, which promotes renewable energy development in the U.S. The data centers being built to facilitate artificial intelligence and store smartphone videos are full of copper. So are the phones.

Glencore estimates that global copper supply must grow by about one million metric tons a year through 2050. That would require annually adding the equivalent of the world’s largest mine, Chile’s Escondida. 

Even if such rich deposits are found, it can take decades to bring mines online. That prevents miners from responding quickly to new demand, which leaves scrap to balance the market, said Citigroup metals strategist Tom Mulqueen. 

Unlike commodities such as oil or corn, copper never goes away and is infinitely recyclable. 

Miles worth are strung through homes and cars and along rights of way, carrying electricity and drinking water. But a lot sits in junk yards and landfills. When prices rise, there is more incentive to get it. Copper prices are currently among the highest ever. 

“Scrap is really determining, in some respects, what price level you’ll get to,” Mulqueen said. “What price level will you need to get to above today to incentivize sufficient scrap recovery?”

More

Your Junk Is Needed for the New Electric Era - WSJ

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

This weekend’s music diversion. The Great Mr. Fasch again. Opening Allegro 4 minutes. Total approx. 12 minutes.

J.F.Fasch: Concerto in D major for 2 Fls, 2 Obs, Bn, 2 Hns, Strings & B.c FWV L:D15

J.F.Fasch: Concerto in D major for 2 Fls, 2 Obs, Bn, 2 Hns, Strings & B.c FWV L:D15 - YouTube

This weekend’s WW2 update. Approx. 38 minutes.

U-505 - When the US Navy stole a whole German submarine

U-505 - When the US Navy stole a whole German submarine

This weekend’s final diversion, pure maths fun for Thanksgiving on Thursday.   Approx 32 minutes of interesting algebra.  

What's the next freak identity? A new deep connection with Sophie Germain primes

What's the next freak identity? A new deep connection with Sophie Germain primes

The intelligent investor should recognize that market panics can create great prices for good companies and good prices for great companies.

Benjamin Graham.

 


No comments:

Post a Comment