Baltic
Dry Index. 1568 +63 Brent Crude 71.61
Spot Gold 2607 US 2 Year Yield 4.26 Friday
At the heart of capitalism is creative destruction.
Joseph A. Schumpeter.
In the US stock casinos and crypto currency fantasy universe, the Trump Bubble bubbles along, to infinity and beyond.
Elsewhere, less mania more realism.
Rising economic troubles in China, Asia, Germany and Europe and in the UK from a jobs and profits killing socialist budget.
In the USA real economy, later this week the official Federal Debt will hit 36 trillion on a GDP of roughly 29.3 trillion. And the USA isn’t at war, in recession (yet?,) and is about to go deeply further into debt in the next four years. The debt was “only” 33 trillion last November.
Something will likely break ahead. Look away from that struggling oil price now.
Asia-Pacific markets mostly fall as U.S.
postelection rally fails to lift regional optimism
Updated Tue, Nov 12 2024 12:06 AM EST
Asia-Pacific markets were mostly fell
Tuesday, with investors exercising caution
even as the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s post-election rally
continued to gain momentum to close at a record high.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slipped
1.96%, while the CSI 300 was 0.41% higher. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was 0.1%
lower. South Korea’s Kospi fell
by 1.28%, while the Kosdaq Index dropped 2.26%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.92%
while the Topix traded around the flatline.
Traders in Asia-Pacific is also parsing a
swathe of economic data in the region, including a survey from the National
Australia Bank on business conditions and Indonesia’s retail sales in
September.
India will be reporting its consumer price
index for October, and oil cartel OPEC is also set to release its monthly oil
market report later in the day.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged
more than 300 points on Monday and closed at a record high as the benchmark’s
postelection rally pressed forward.
The 30-stock Dow gained 304 points, or
0.69%, to 44,293.69. It’s rise brought the index above 44,000 for the first
time. The S&P 500 added
0.1% to end the day at 6,001.35 and also earned a record close by surpassing
6,000 for the first time. However, the Nasdaq Composite hovered
near the flatline, up 0.06% to 19,298.76.
Bitcoin surged above $87,000, boosted by
hopes of deregulation as well. Crypto related stocks Coinbase and Mara Holdings rallied 20% and
30%, respectively.
Asia markets live: India CPI, NAB survey, Indonesia retail sales
European markets head for a lower open as traders
await inflation data
Updated Tue, Nov 12 2024 12:52 AM EST
European markets are heading for a lower
open Tuesday, as investors assess what U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s
return to the White House could mean for the region’s economy amid worries
about possible tariffs.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected
to open 18 points lower at 8,054, Germany’s DAX down 93 points at
19,355, France’s CAC down
34 points at 7,392 and Italy’s FTSE MIB down 157 points at
33,659, according to data from IG.
Investors will scrutinize a fresh batch of
economic data this week, including an inflation reading from Germany on
Tuesday, and U.S. inflation and
U.K. gross domestic product on Thursday.
Infineon, Bayer, Vodafone and AstraZeneca
will report earnings, while U.K. unemployment and European and German ZEW
economic sentiment figures are also due today.
Asia-Pacific
markets mostly fell overnight with investors exercising caution
even as US. stocks continued their postelection rally, with key
benchmarks closing at record highs. U.S.
stock futures were near flat early Tuesday.
Europe markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings
Does Warren Buffett Know Something That We Don’t?
Berkshire Hathaway is hoarding cash in a
pattern seen before the financial crisis, but it has a new reason this time
Nov. 11, 2024 5:30 am ET
When the world’s most-followed investor
doesn’t feel comfortable investing, should the rest of us be worried?
Warren Buffett, who
has quipped that his favorite holding period for a stock is “forever,”
continues to have substantial money at work in American companies. But he has
never taken this much off the table either—a whopping $325 billion in cash and
equivalents, mostly in the form of Treasury bills.
To appreciate the immensity of that hoard,
consider that it would allow Berkshire to write a check, with change left over,
for all but the 25 or so most-valuable listed U.S. corporations—iconic ones
such as Walt Disney, Goldman
Sachs GS 2.22%increase;
green up pointing triangle, Pfizer, General Electric or AT&T. In
addition to letting the dividends and interest pile up on its balance sheet,
the conglomerate has aggressively sold down two of its largest
shareholdings, Apple
and Bank of America, in the past several months. And, for the first time in
six years, it has stopped buying more of the stock it knows best—Berkshire Hathaway BRK.B 0.85%increase;
green up pointing triangle.
Does that mean mere investing mortals
should be cautious about the market? Maybe, but it tells us even more about
Berkshire.
----Yet the seemingly always optimistic
and patient Buffett has turned cautious before, famously shutting his extremely
successful partnership in 1969 when he said markets were too frothy and also
building up substantial cash in the years leading up to the global financial
crisis—money he deployed opportunistically.
“He’s cognizant of the fact that markets
gyrate and go to extremes,” says Adam J. Mead, a New Hampshire money manager
and Buffetologist who is the author of “The Complete Financial
History of Berkshire Hathaway.”
Stock values being stretched doesn’t mean
they are on the precipice of a crash or even a bear market. Instead, zoom out
and look at what today’s valuations say about returns over the next several
years, which will include both good and bad periods. Goldman Sachs strategist
David Kostin predicted recently that the S&P 500’s return over the next
decade would average just 3% a year—less than a third of the postwar pace.
More
Does Warren Buffett Know Something That We Don’t? - WSJ
Finally, our rapidly polarising world order.
Saudi Crown Prince condemns Israel’s attacks on
Palestinians as ‘genocide’ during summit
11 November 2024
Saudi Arabia’s crown prince and de facto
ruler condemned what he called the “genocide” committed by Israel against
Palestinians when he spoke at a summit of Muslim and Arab leaders on Monday.
“The Kingdom renews its condemnation and
categorical rejection of the genocide committed by Israel against the brotherly
Palestinian people,” Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said at an Arab Islamic
summit, echoing comments by Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud
late last month.
He urged the international community to
stop Israel from attacking Iran and to respect Iran’s sovereignty.
The crown prince said in September the
kingdom would not recognize Israel unless a Palestinian state were created.
U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration
had sought to broker a normalization accord between Saudi Arabia and Israel
that would have included U.S. security guarantees for the kingdom, among other
bilateral deals between Washington and Riyadh.
Those normalization efforts were put on
ice after the Oct. 7, 2023, attack
on Israel by Hamas militants from Gaza and Israel’s subsequent
retaliation.
In a press conference later on Monday,
Arab League Secretary General Ahmed Aboul Gheit pointed to an article in a
concluding statement to the summit that moved to freeze Israel’s membership in
the U.N. General Assembly.
He stated that freezing membership would
not come under the Security Council’s jurisdiction and could be decided by the
General Assembly.
“We might witness soon the freezing of the
membership (of Israel) through a UNGA majority decision,” said Aboul Gheit.
The summit’s concluding statement demanded
all countries ban exports or transfers of weapons and ammunition to Israel and
urged the International Criminal Court to issue arrest warrants for civilian
and military officials in Israel.
Israel’s military assault on Gaza in the
last 13 months has killed tens of thousands, displaced nearly its entire
population, caused a hunger crisis and led to allegations of genocide at the
World Court, which Israel denies.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
German
industry sees worst slump in orders since 2009, institute says
11
November 2024
The
German economy is suffering from the worst recorded slump in orders since the
2009 financial crisis, a top economic institute suggested on Monday.
The
Munich-based ifo Institute said 41.5% of German companies reported a lack of
orders in October, up from 39.4% in the last survey in July.
The
quarterly figure is higher than the institute recorded at any point during the
coronavirus pandemic.
"The
lack of orders is continuing to hinder economic development in Germany,"
said ifo economist Klaus Wohlrabe. "Hardly any industry has been
spared."
Some
sectors were hit harder than others, with almost half of manufacturing
companies (47.7%) seeing a lack of orders.
Among
companies manufacturing basic metals, 68.3% recorded a lack of orders, as did
59.9% of metal products manufacturers.
Germany's
key automotive and chemical industries saw around 44% of businesses report a
lack of orders.
The
trade sector also recorded its highest rate of companies seeing a lack of
orders since at least 2006, at 65.5%. Among retail companies, the figure was
56.4%.
The
situation among service providers was somewhat better, with only 32.1%
reporting a lack of orders, up from 31.2%.
Recruitment
agencies were particularly badly hit, Wohlrabe said, because "temporary
workers are less in demand."
In
contrast, legal and tax consultants, as well as auditors, were more positive
about their situation as a result of "high levels of bureaucracy and
regulation," the institute said.
German industry
sees worst slump in orders since 2009, institute says
US
recession coming in 2025? How will it affect the stock markets? Here's how to
navigate it
9
November 2024
The
US stock market is still in a bull run for the better part of two years, with
the S&P 500 currently up by more than 60 per cent from its lowest point in
October 2022 followed by Nasdaq's 76 per cent surge in the similar timeline.
However,
after this rapid ascension, US investors are worried that a market slump could
be looming ahead and possible nationwide recession may even be a strong
possibility.
Predicting
the future of the current market scenario is extremely tough at this point as
economy experts may not be able to say for certain where the US economy is
headed. In August 2024, JP Morgan & Chase analysts had revealed that there
are major chances of an American recession by the end of the year. The same
report has also carried the statement of a probability of a recession by the
end of 2025, which now stands at 45%.
However,
the biggest example that these predictions may not be accurate at all times
would be a report by Deutsche Bank analysts from June 2023, where it was
claimed that there was a 100 per cent chance that the American economy could
face US recession by the end of that year. But, things did not happen as
predicted and instead, the market conditions changed rapidly, and even S&P
500 rallied by nearly 35% since then.
The
US stock market could be very unpredictable and intimidating at the same time,
and timing may not matter much as it is very difficult to understand what the
future has in store for the markets. Therefore there is no way to say that a
American recession is not on its course of arrival. However, taking necessary
precautions and preparations around the same would be a healthy idea for US
investors.
FAQs:
Could
the US economy see a recession soon? Some latest economy reports are
cleaning that the US economy may soon witness a recession, but it still cannot
be asserted during which timeline it may arrive.
Is
the S&P 500 value surging? The S&P 500's value is constantly
increasing over time and has soared by more than 60% from its December 2022
values.
US recession coming in 2025? How will it affect the stock markets? Here's how to navigate it
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
AI
tool spots long COVID in electronic health records
11
November, 2024
Researchers
in the US have developed an artificial intelligence algorithm that can sift
through electronic health records (EHRs) and help physicians to detect
undiagnosed cases of long COVID.
Along
with identifying people who should be receiving care for the potentially
debilitating condition, the algorithm could also be used to try to find the
genetic and biochemical factors behind the still-mysterious condition, which
causes a range of symptoms including extreme tiredness, shortness of breath,
chest pain, problems with memory, difficulty sleeping, heart palpitations, and
dizziness.
According
to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), approximately 7.5%
of the adult population of the US have symptoms of long COVID, which works out
at 24.75 million individuals.
The
new algorithm – developed by investigators at Mass General Brigham and
published in the journal Med – was
trained on de-identified data from EHRs of nearly 300,000 patients across 14
hospitals and 20 community health centres.
It
uses an approach known as 'precision phenotyping', which goes through
individual records to identify symptoms and conditions linked to COVID-19 and
tracks them over time to differentiate them from other illnesses like asthma or
heart failure. The algorithm identified a cohort of over 24,000 patients with
79.9% precision, according to the paper, and also suggested that the risk of
long COVID increases with subsequent infections.
"Our
AI tool could turn a foggy diagnostic process into something sharp and focused,
giving clinicians the power to make sense of a challenging condition,"
said senior author Hossein Estiri, who is head of AI research at the Centre for
AI and Biomedical Informatics of the Learning Healthcare System (CAIBILS) at
Mass General Brigham, as well as an associate professor of medicine at Harvard
Medical School.
"With
this work, we may finally be able to see long COVID for what it truly is – and
more importantly, how to treat it," he continued, noting that the AI seems
to be about 3% more accurate than current diagnostic approaches based on the
International Classification of Diseases code for long COVID (ICD-10), but more
importantly is less prone to bias.
In
particular, diagnoses of patients using ICD-10 tend to favour individuals with
better access to healthcare, putting less fortunate people at a disadvantage,
so the AI tool could help reduce inequities in care.
"This
broader scope ensures that marginalized communities, often sidelined in
clinical studies, are no longer invisible," said Estiri.
Long
COVID – or post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) to give it the scientific
term – may also be a lot more common than estimated by the CDC, according to
the researchers. Their work suggests that figure could be 22.8%, not too far
off the National Centre for Health Statistics estimate of 24% for
Massachusetts, which is based on 2022-23 data.
Future
studies may explore the algorithm in cohorts of patients with specific
conditions, like chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or diabetes. In
the meantime, the team plans to make its algorithm open-access so it can be
deployed by other healthcare systems.
AI tool spots long COVID in electronic health records | pharmaphorum
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
UK’s
largest grid-connected battery goes live
Lakeside
Energy Park’s 100MW battery storage facility, developed by TagEnergy and
connected by National Grid at the Drax substation, has become the UK’s largest
transmission-connected battery
Dimitris Mavrokefalidis 11/11/2024 8:50 AM
Lakeside Energy Park’s
battery storage facility, developed by TagEnergy and now connected to the
National Grid at North Yorkshire’s Drax substation, is the largest of its kind
in the UK.
With a capacity of 100MW, the
newly energised facility marks a major step forward in supporting Britain’s
transition to clean energy.
The project was completed by
National Grid in partnership with Omexom, who modified the Drax substation to
safely accommodate the new power flows.
Upgrades included busbar
extensions, enhanced protection and control systems, and a new operational
tripping scheme – all designed to ensure secure operation of the grid as clean
energy capacity grows.
The Drax substation,
originally constructed to serve a coal plant in the 1970s, now hosts the
nation’s largest biomass power station and the Eastern Green Link 2
superhighway, set to bring clean energy from Scotland by 2029.
UK’s largest grid-connected battery goes live - Energy Live News
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
One of
the greatest pieces of economic wisdom is to know what you do not know.
John
Kenneth Galbraith.
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