Tuesday, 26 November 2024

Trump Targets Canada And Mexico. Europe Next? Great Depression 2.0.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1529 -08           Brent Crude  73.25

Spot Gold 2625                US 2 Year Yield 4.21  -0.16

Wall Street never changes, the pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes.

Jesse Lauriston Livermore.

Little need for my input this morning. The news items speak loudly for themselves.

I think Trump trade war two, if actually implemented, along with massive firing of Federal “workers,” plus deporting thousands, if not hundred of thousands of illegal US immigrants, will greatly destabilise the US and global economies.

Without illegal farm workers, how will California’s agricultural economy survive? Without CA’s agricultural produce, how high will US food prices rise.

With tariffs on Mexico’s agriculture exports to the USA, how high will US food price inflation get?

Get ready for and prepare for, Great Depression 2.0.

Trump vows an additional 10% tariff on China, 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico

Published Mon, Nov 25 2024 7:33 PM EST

BEIJING — President-elect Donald Trump plans to raise tariffs by an additional 10% on all Chinese goods coming into the U.S., according to a post on his social media platform Truth Social.

The post immediately followed one in which Trump said his first of “many” executive orders on Jan. 20 would impose tariffs of 25% on all products from Mexico and Canada. Such a move would end a regional free trade agreement.

Trump is set to be inaugurated as the next U.S. president on Jan. 20. He cited illegal immigration and illicit drug trade as reasons for the tariffs.

“I have had many talks with China about the massive amounts of drugs, in particular Fentanyl, being sent into the United States – But to no avail,” Trump said. He claimed that contrary to promises, Beijing did not impose the death penalty on such drug dealers.

Fentanyl, a synthetic opioid, is an addictive drug that’s led to tens of thousands of overdose deaths each year in the U.S.

Reducing illicit supplies of the drug, precursors of which are mostly produced in China and Mexico, has been an area in which Washington and Beijing have agreed to cooperate.

“No one will win a trade war or a tariff war,” Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for China’s embassy in the U.S., said on X. He described bilateral economic and trade cooperation as “mutually beneficial in nature.”

Liu pushed back on Trump’s claim that China has done little to stem the flow of fentanyl to the U.S. He said that both countries’ counternarcotics teams have regularly communicated since Chinese President Xi Jinping met with U.S. President Joe Biden in November 2023.

“Drugs are pouring into our Country, mostly through Mexico, at levels never seen before,” Trump said. “Until such time as they stop, we will be charging China an additional 10% Tariff, above any additional Tariffs, on all of their many products coming into the United States of America.”

Trump had threatened tariffs of 60% on Chinese goods while campaigning for president.

A 10% tariff on China is lower than the 20% to 30% that markets expected, Kinger Lau, chief China equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.” He expects China will cut rates, increase fiscal stimulus and moderately depreciate its currency in order to counter the economic impact of increased duties.

Mexico is the largest trading partner of the U.S., followed by Canada and China, according to U.S. data as of September.

The U.S. is China’s largest trading partner on a single country basis, according to China customs data. The Asian country’s largest regional trading partners are the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the European Union.

China and the U.S. still have a “really important commercial and economic relationship,” Andy Rothman, investment strategist at Matthews Asia, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Tuesday. He said that China is unlikely to take reciprocal action for now, and noted that Beijing has not typically responded aggressively.

The U.S. dollar traded about 1% stronger versus the Mexican peso, and 1.4% higher against the Canadian dollar as of Tuesday morning. The greenback climbed around 0.2% against the Hong Kong-traded Chinese yuan.

Trump vows an additional 10% tariff on China, 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico

In stock casino news, a USA v Rest of the World developing split?

Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed after U.S. stocks hit new highs overnight

Updated Tue, Nov 26 2024 12:32 AM EST

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Tuesday, breaking ranks with Wall Street that saw U.S. benchmarks notching record highs following President-elect Donald Trump’s choice for Treasury secretary.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.68%, after hitting a new all-time closing high on Monday.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 shed 1.49%, while the Topix lost 1.5%. Japan’s service PPI rose 2.9% year on year, compared to a 2.8% rise the previous month.

The Kospi slid 0.71% and the Kosdaq lost 0.9%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index traded 0.49% higher, while mainland China’s CSI 300 added 0.34%.

Singapore’s manufacturing output rose 1.2% year on year, missing Reuters’ expectations of a 2.2% rise, according to LSEG data. The figure compares to a 9.8% increase in September.

In the U.S., a rally in stocks propelled the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and the Russell 2000 index to reach new highs on Monday as investors cheered Trump’s decision to nominate Scott Bessent, the founder of Key Square Group.

The blue-chip Dow rose 440.06 points, or 0.99%, to 44,736.57. The broad S&P 500 gained 0.3% to end at 5,987.37. Both hit new all-time highs in the session, while the Dow also notched a fresh record close. The Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.27%, finishing the day at 19,054.84.

Asia markets live: Japan service PPI, Singapore manufacturing

In other news.

Eurozone 'panic' as euro risks plummeting amid trade war fears

25 November 2024

The euro could crash to its lowest value since late 2022 as fears mount Donald Trump will impose brutal import tariffs on European Union imports when he takes office in January.

The bloc's currency has shown some jittery signs in response to the President-elect's pledges on international trade, with the euro sinking below $1.04 against the dollar on Friday, the Guardian reports.

There are fears the value of the currency could plummet further to level-pegging with the US dollar if Mr Trump's feared economic protectionist policy becomes a reality.

Brussels is worried Washington will hit EU goods heading to the US with a tariff of at least 10 percent next year which could seriously harm manufacturing economies such as Germany, the richest nation on the continent.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a bid to placate the incoming President Trump by announcing Europe could start importing liquefied natural gas from the US instead of from Russia.

Mr Trump has mooted the idea of a 10 percent to 20 percent levy on European goods, and a huge 60 percent to 100 percent tariff on imports coming from China, sparking global jitters in the markets.

However, some analysts are seeing Mr Trump's choice of Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, as a potential moderating influence on any extreme trade tactics.

Mr Bessent, 62, a billionaire hedge-fund manager, has spent his career in finance and his nomination has been one of the most anticipated by financial markets in recent days.

----Stephen Innex, from SPI Asset Management said: "Bessent's influence is expected to bring nuanced economic strategies to the forefront, potentially easing concerns over abrupt policy shifts."

Ivan Rogers, the former British ambassador to the EU, said that Britain has to make a choice between the EU and the US in the coming months when it comes to international trade focus.

More

Eurozone 'panic' as euro risks plummeting amid trade war fears

Thyssenkrupp to cut 11,000 jobs at steel division in major corporate shakeup

25 November 2024

BERLIN (Reuters) -Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe (TKSE) plans to reduce its workforce by 11,000 people or roughly 40%, the company said on Monday, the latest major restructuring to be announced by a German industrial giant.

Germany's largest steelmaker, a division of Thyssenkrupp AG, is under pressure from cheaper Asian competitors, high power prices and a weakening global economy, leading to operating losses in four of the past five years.

Thyssenkrupp will cut 5,000 jobs by 2030 and an additional 6,000 jobs through the sale of business activities or transfer to external service providers, it said.

"Urgent measures are required to improve Thyssenkrupp Steel's own productivity and operating efficiency and to achieve a competitive cost level," the company said in a statement.

The new strategy also foresees the reduction of production capacity from 11.5 million metric tons to a future shipment target of 8.7 to 9 million tons, "an adjustment to future market expectations", TKSE said.

Its processing site in Kreuztal-Eichen is to be closed, the company said.

The sale of its plant in Duisburg, Huettenwerke Krupp Mannesmann, is also a key part of the planned capacity reduction, but if a sale is not achievable, it will hold talks with other shareholders about closure scenarios, the company said.

"Anyone who wants to cut over 11,000 jobs and close a site must expect fierce resistance from IG Metall," said Knut Giesler, head of the IG Metall union in the western state of North Rhine Westphalia.

Other big German companies are also considering shutting down factories. Last week, workers and management at carmaker Volkswagen held a third round of crunch talks over pay cuts and possible factory shutdowns in Germany.

Earlier this month, Thyssenkrupp wrote down the value of its steel division by another 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion), blaming the sector's worsening outlook.

TKSE is now valued at 2.4 billion euros in the group's books, less than half what it was worth two years ago as the prospects for Europe's biggest economy continue to darken.

Thyssenkrupp to cut 11,000 jobs at steel division in major corporate shakeup

Italy's UniCredit offers to buy Banco BPM for $10.57 bln

By Reuters November 25, 20246:50 AM GMT

Nov 25 (Reuters) - Italian lender UniCredit (CRDI.MI), opens new tab said on Monday it had offered to buy rival Banco BPM (BAMI.MI), opens new tab in a roughly 10.09-billion-euro ($10.57 billion) all-stock deal that would combine Italy's second and third largest banks and expand their pan-European presence.

UniCredit, the country's second-largest bank, offered 0.175 of its common stock for each BPM share, which equates to 6.67 euros per share, a premium of about 0.4% to the stock's closing price on Friday.

"Europe needs stronger, bigger banks to help it develop its economy and help it compete against the other major economic blocs," UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel said in a statement.

BPM did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

Earlier in November, BPM bought a 5% stake in state-owned Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) (BMPS.MI), opens new tab and also launched a buyout offer to gain full control of asset manager Anima Holding (ANIM.MI), opens new tab in a deal worth up to 1.6 billion euros ($1.7 billion).

BPM's shares have risen about 5.3% since the close on Nov. 6, before it announced its offer for Anima.

UniCredit said it had taken note of BPM's offer for Anima and that its offer is independent of its investment in German lender Commerzbank AG (CBKG.DE), opens new tab.

The lender said it expects the BPM deal to add to its earnings per share in the high single digit range within two years following the settlement of the exchange offer.

Italy's UniCredit offers to buy Banco BPM for $10.57 bln | Reuters

Finally, poor GB, the voters got taken-in  hook, line and sinker by the far left, inept, Labour socialists.  Voters remorse in less than five months.

Labour’s Budget will ‘hit growth’, CBI boss warns

Monday 25 November 2024 6:00 am 

The government’s tax hikes will squeeze profits, damage investment and “hit growth”, according to the chief executive of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI).

In a speech set to be delivered at the CBI’s annual conference later today, Newton-Smith will warn about the devastating impact of the Budget on businesses across the country.

“The rise in National Insurance and the stark lowering of the threshold caught us all off guard,” she will say.

“Set alongside the expansion and rise of the National Living Wage… and the potential cost of the Employment Rights Bill changes, they put a heavy burden on business.”

“[Firms] are looking with heavy hearts to cut training and investment, delay decarbonisation projects, or pass on costs to customers,” she is expected to say.

The additional costs placed on businesses will hit profit, ultimately lowering investment and stifling economic growth, she will say.

“Profits aren’t just extra money for companies to stuff in a pillowcase. Profits are investment. When you hit profits, you hit competitiveness, you hit investment. You hit growth.”

She will argue that business is the “one force” that can help the government achieve its ambition to achieve the highest sustained growth rate in the G7.

“Tax rises like this must never again simply be done to business”.

In last month’s Budget, the government announced tax rises worth £40bn, including an increase to employers’ national insurance and changes to the threshold at which the levy must be paid.

Over the past few weeks, many firms from many different sectors have cautioned about the likely consequences of the tax hike on jobs and investment. Analysis from Deutsche Bank suggests the could end up costing the economy over 100,000 jobs.

The speech comes amid growing fears that the Budget has already stymied growth in the UK. The latest purchasing managers’ index (PMI), released last Friday, showed that business activity contracted in November for the first time in a year.

Many economists put the blame on the Budget tax hikes. “The fall in the Composite PMI suggests that tax hikes announced in the Budget seem to have restrained some private sector activity,” Elias Hilmer, an assistant economist at Capital Economics, said.

Separate retail sales figures for October, which were also released on Friday, came in below expectations as well, with sales volumes falling 0.9 per cent month-on-month.

More

Labour's Budget will 'hit growth', CBI boss warns

Whether UK General Election could be called as petition reaches 1.9 million signatures in less than four days

Published 16:29 25 Nov 2024 GMT

About two million people have signed this thing, what does it mean?

A petition to try and get the UK to hold another general election has gained over two million signatures in just a few days.

We did just have a general election a few months ago in which the Labour party won a landslide in terms of the seats in the House of Commons, though some people have decided they would like another one sooner rather than later.

The election result was not particularly surprising for most people but the new government, the first time Labour have been in power in the UK since 2010, has been beset by a number of issues.

About five months into the job, the new government has had to figure out to plug a financial black hole of billions of quid, deal with destructive riots, face a backlash over ending the winter fuel allowance for some pensioners, introduce a new budget and just had a protest from farmers unhappy that they might have to start paying inheritance tax.

It's safe to say there wasn't exactly a long honeymoon period for this lot, and now the most popular petition currently going on the government's site is asking for a new general election.

On the government's website for petitions, there's one titled 'Call A General Election'.

The aim of the petition, which was started by a man called Michael Westwood who told the Daily Express he thinks voters have been 'betrayed' by Labour, is to have another vote and presumably get a different government since if you were happy with the current one you'd be unlikely to sign the petition.

On the site, the petition says: "I would like there to be another general election. I believe the current Labour Government have gone back on the promises they laid out in the lead up to the last election."

More

Whether UK General Election could be called as petition reaches 1.9 million signatures in less than four days

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Musk and Ramaswamy race to build a ‘DOGE’ team for war with Washington

November 24, 2024

Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy are interviewing job candidates and seeking advice from experts in Washington and Silicon Valley — pushing a sweeping vision for the “Department of Government Efficiency” past the realm of memes and viral posts into potential real-world disruption.

Tapped by President-elect Donald Trump to lead an advisory panel to find “drastic” cuts to the federal government, the billionaire “DOGE” leaders have spent the past week in Washington and at Mar-a-Lago, seeking staff and interviewing seasoned Washington operators, legal specialists and top tech leaders, according to five people familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to reflect private deliberations.

Both lobbied for Russell Vought, Trump’s pick to run the White House budget office, who is close with Ramaswamy, several people said. The men see Vought, who is enthusiastic about their arguments to rely on an expansive and boundary-pushing view of executive power to reform the government, as a key potential ally.

Top Musk surrogates from his business empire — including private equity executive Antonio Gracias and Boring Company President Steve Davis — are involved in planning, the people said, along with a coterie of Musk friends and Silicon Valley leaders, including Palantir co-founder and investor Joe Lonsdale, who funds a libertarian-leaning nonprofit dedicated to government efficiency; investor Marc Andreessen; hedge fund manager Bill Ackman; and former Uber chief executive Travis Kalanick. Ramaswamy, Musk and the Silicon Valley cohort plan to work on technical challenges to collecting data about federal employees and programs, which they believe is siloed in antiquated systems. Andreessen is acting as a key networker for talent recruitment, one person said. Those executives did not immediately return requests for comment.

In a Wall Street Journal op-ed, Musk and Ramaswamy, a former GOP presidential candidate, outlined their vision for using executive powers and the legal system to push cuts to federal regulations, spending and personnel — a vision that they expect to be tested in court. The men also are launching a podcast, called “Dogecast.” And they backed a new House subcommittee aimed at supplementing their efforts in Congress, where some Republicans have enthusiastically welcomed their initiative.

More

Musk and Ramaswamy race to build a ‘DOGE’ team for war with Washington

If Inflation Is Back, Protecting Against It Won’t Be Simple

November 25, 2024

With a strong economy and an incoming president promising tax cuts and tariffs, investors and economists are rightly worrying that inflation might make a comeback. Unfortunately, one of the standard ways to guard against it—buying commodities, especially oil—offers less protection than usual.

The twin inflation risks are well understood: Supply shocks and demand surges. War in the Middle East has the potential to threaten energy supplies, while tax cuts into an economy with near-full employment ought to lift prices.

The extra threats to inflation don’t fit either model, though. Tariffs and deportations would both be likely to push up inflation, but would also hit the economy. “Commodities won’t protect you from that,” says Christian Mueller-Glissmann, head of asset allocation research at Goldman Sachs.

The problem has shown up already in price moves since the election. The market measure of expected inflation over the next five years, known as the breakeven, had its biggest jump in more than a year after the result, having already risen as traders bet on Donald Trump winning.

Yet, gold, oil and copper are all down. Have they lost their ability to protect against inflation? To answer this, think about three different causes of inflation.

First, oil. Clearly, oil will still protect against one of the most common causes of runaway inflation: a soaring oil price resulting from strikes on oil facilities in the Middle East. Yet, that has become much less likely. Shocks to world oil supply are being damped by large stocks and excess production capacity, as well as by the U.S.’s status as a net exporter, a sharp change compared with the inflationary era of the 1970s. Far from soaring as Israel stepped up its fight with Iran’s proxies and Iran itself, crude is stuck around $70 a barrel.

President-elect Trump’s pledge to “drill, baby, drill” and his selection of a fracking executive as nominee for energy secretary and oil prices suggest downward pressure on prices in the U.S., too.

----- Third, Trump’s tariff and migrant-deportation plans. Both could increase inflation.

Tariffs have nuanced effects on inflation. The immediate impact is to raise prices, much like a sales tax, as well as pushing up the dollar. In the longer run, they should slow the economy—again, like a tax rise—which should reduce inflationary pressure. The mixed effects show up in higher expectations for inflation in the near term, but little change in inflation expectations beyond the next five years.

This sort of action is hard to protect against. Tariffs shouldn’t help oil and industrial metals, and might hurt them as trade wars threaten a weaker world economy and so less demand. Gold could also struggle as tariffs will push up the dollar, tending to weaken the gold price and make interest-rate cuts less likely.

If the new administration manages to remove many millions of migrants who entered the country illegally it would surely push up wages for the worst-paid as companies compete to replace low-cost workers. Since the poor tend to spend all their income, that ought to boost spending and feed through to prices both as companies try to make up for their higher costs and from the extra demand the higher spending creates. Again, this is the wrong sort of inflation for oil or copper.

More

If Inflation Is Back, Protecting Against It Won’t Be Simple

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Mounting research shows that COVID-19 leaves its mark on the brain, including significant drops in IQ scores

24 November 2024

From the very early days of the pandemic, brain fog emerged as a significant health condition that many experience after COVID-19.

Brain fog is a colloquial term that describes a state of mental sluggishness or lack of clarity and haziness that makes it difficult to concentrate, remember things and think clearly.

Fast-forward four years and there is now abundant evidence that being infected with SARS-CoV-2 – the virus that causes COVID-19 – can affect brain health in many ways.

In addition to brain fog, COVID-19 can lead to an array of problems, including headaches, seizure disorders, strokes, sleep problems, and tingling and paralysis of the nerves, as well as several mental health disorders.

A large and growing body of evidence amassed throughout the pandemic details the many ways that COVID-19 leaves an indelible mark on the brain. But the specific pathways by which the virus does so are still being elucidated, and curative treatments are nonexistent.

Now, two 2024 studies published in the New England Journal of Medicine shed further light on the profound toll of COVID-19 on cognitive health.

I am a physician scientist, and I have been devoted to studying long COVID since early patient reports about this condition – even before the term “long COVID” was coined. I have testified before the U.S. Senate as an expert witness on long COVID and have published extensively on this topic.

How COVID-19 leaves its mark on the brain

Here are some of the most important studies to date documenting how COVID-19 affects brain health:

·         Large epidemiological analyses showed that people who had COVID-19 were at an increased risk of cognitive deficits, such as memory problems.

·         Imaging studies done in people before and after their COVID-19 infections show shrinkage of brain volume and altered brain structure after infection.

·         A study of people with mild to moderate COVID-19 showed significant prolonged inflammation of the brain and changes that are commensurate with seven years of brain aging.

·         Severe COVID-19 that requires hospitalization or intensive care may result in cognitive deficits and other brain damage that are equivalent to 20 years of aging.

·         Laboratory experiments in human and mouse brain organoids designed to emulate changes in the human brain showed that SARS-CoV-2 infection triggers the fusion of brain cells. This effectively short-circuits brain electrical activity and compromises function.

·         Autopsy studies of people who had severe COVID-19 but died months later from other causes showed that the virus was still present in brain tissue. This provides evidence that contrary to its name, SARS-CoV-2 is not only a respiratory virus, but it can also enter the brain in some individuals. But whether the persistence of the virus in brain tissue is driving some of the brain problems seen in people who have had COVID-19 is not yet clear.

·         Studies show that even when the virus is mild and exclusively confined to the lungs, it can still provoke inflammation in the brain and impair brain cells’ ability to regenerate.

·         COVID-19 can also disrupt the blood brain barrier, the shield that protects the nervous system – which is the control and command center of our bodies – making it “leaky.” Studies using imaging to assess the brains of people hospitalized with COVID-19 showed disrupted or leaky blood brain barriers in those who experienced brain fog.

·         A large preliminary analysis pooling together data from 11 studies encompassing almost 1 million people with COVID-19 and more than 6 million uninfected individuals showed that COVID-19 increased the risk of development of new-onset dementia in people older than 60 years of age.

More

Mounting research shows that COVID-19 leaves its mark on the brain, including significant drops in IQ scores

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Moving graphene from the lab to fab – how 2D materials could transform everyday electronics

25 November 2024

Graphene has lived up to its promise in the lab. Now, EU-funded researchers are working on supporting its wider adoption in high-end electronics, photonics and sensors.

By Anthony King

Dr Inge Asselberghs has been closely involved in advanced graphene research over the past decade. Today, she’s at the forefront of EU-funded efforts to bring this “miracle material” out of the lab and into society.

Asselberghs is part of an international team of researchers that set up a prototype manufacturing facility for graphene and other 2D materials at Imec, a leading global nanoelectronics research institute based in Leuven, Belgium.

The team pools expertise from 11 universities, research institutes and companies in six European countries as part of the EU-funded 2D experimental pilot line (2D-EPL). Their aim is to advance the production and integration of graphene in prototypes for use in high-end electronics, photonics and sensors.

Graphene has the potential to fundamentally transform many areas of technology. Consisting of just a single layer of carbon atoms, it is extremely thin.

Graphene is exceptionally strong, light and flexible, and able to conduct both heat and electricity. This makes it highly adaptable for a wide range of products, from next-generation batteries to advanced aeronautic and space applications.

“The hype started as soon as graphene was discovered. It was much stronger than initially anticipated,” said Asselberghs. 

Recognising the economic potential of graphene and other 2D materials, the EU launched the 10-year Graphene Flagship initiative in 2013, bringing together 178 academic and industrial partners with a budget of €1 billion to boost research in this area. 2D-EPL is part of this wide-ranging initiative.

The aim of the experimental pilot line, set up in multiple locations, was to accelerate the use of graphene and other layered materials in the manufacture of new prototypes for electronics, photonics, sensors and optoelectronics. This will be a crucial step before 2D materials can be integrated into full-scale chip manufacturing.

“Our first goal was to figure out how to make graphene devices on a wafer scale by modifying existing processes so that they can be handled in automated fabrication facilities,” said Asselberghs. 

Wafers are thin round slices of material for use in electronics and other industries. Reaching the stage where graphene can be routinely included in sophisticated devices would be a major milestone. 

One drawback is that the thinness of graphene and other 2D materials can make them tricky to manufacture flawlessly. It takes only a speck of dust, or even a few unwanted molecules, to cause defects in graphene. 

More

Moving graphene from the lab to fab – how 2D materials could transform everyday electronics | Cyprus Mail

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Near the top of the market, investors are extraordinarily optimistic because they've seen mostly higher prices for a year or two. The sell-offs witnessed during that span were usually brief. Even when they were severe, the market bounced back quickly and always rose to loftier levels. At the top, optimism is king, speculation is running wild, stocks carry high price/earnings ratios, and liquidity has evaporated. A small rise in interest rates can easily be the catalyst for triggering a bear market at that point.

Martin Zweig.


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